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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-11-17 | Phillies v. Cardinals -139 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cards are glad to be back home (ended an 0-7 road trip on Thursday) and it hasn't hurt that they drew the Phillies in this weekend series, a team with MLB's worst record. St. Louis has won the first two games of the series (giving them four wins in a row at home) and the team looks to complete a three-game sweep on Sunday. After eking out a 3-2 win on Friday, it was a 'cake walk' on Saturday, as Carlos Martinez twirled a four-hit shutout to lead St. Louis to a 7-0 win. The Phillies have now dropped four straight following a four-game winning streak that was preceded by a five-game skid. One could say Philadelphia is streaky but then again, the Phillies are mostly just bad, entering Sunday with MLB's worst record (21-39) and its third-worst moneyline mark (minus-$1522). The pitching matchup: Aaron Nola (3-3 & 4.28 ERA) starts for Philadelphia and Adam Wainwright (6-4 & 4.82 ERA) for St. Louis. Nola had his best outing of the season last Tuesday in Atlanta, striking out six while holding the Braves to one run on five hits over eight innings of a 3-1 win. It was only the third quality start in seven outings this season and snapped a three-game losing streak in which he had posted a 5.63 ERA. Nola did beat the Cardinals in his only previous meeting them, tossing seven scoreless innings back on May 3, 2016. The veteran Wainwright started slowly in 2017 but entered his last start off a dominant stretch in which he had allowed just one run in 26 1/3 innings over four straight wins (0.56 ERA). However, he fell apart last time out, getting ripped for nine runs on seven hits in just 3 2/3 innings of a 13-1 setback at Cincinnati last Tuesday. Wainwright is 6-2 with a 2.85 ERA in 14 games (12 starts / Cards are 8-4) against the Phillies. The pick: The Phillies are a woeful 9-25 on the road and with back-to-back losses Friday and Saturday, have now lost 10 of their last 12 games at St. Louis (Cards have taken five straight series against the Phillies, overall). Yes, Wainwright was abysmal last Tuesday but note that was his first loss since April 16 and the Cards had won seven of his previous eight starts! Make St. Louis an 8* play. |
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06-11-17 | White Sox v. Indians -192 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The White Sox lost 7-3 Friday night in Cleveland but rebounded to win 5-3 last night, pounding out 14 hits. The victory still leaves Chicago in last place in the AL Central, seven games back of the Brewers at 26-34. The Indians, last year's AL champs, fell to 30-29 with the loss and sit in second place, 2 1/2 games back of Milwaukee. The rubber match of the three-game series goes Sunday afternoon and the White Sox last won a road series back in mid-May, when they took three of four in Seattle. The pitching matchup: Jose Quintana (2-7 & 5.30 ERA) goes for Chicago and Carlos Carrasco (5-3 & 3.36 ERA) for Cleveland. It's been struggle this year for Quintana with just two wins in his 12 starts (White Sox are 5-7). He gave up just one run on four hits and four walks over 5 1/3 innings last time out but settled for a no-decision at Tampa Bay. However, that was a major improvement from his previous two starts, when he allowed 15 runs on 18 hits over just seven total innings (19.29 ERA!). Quintana is 7-4 with a 2.63 ERA in 20 career games (18 starts / White Sox are 8-10) against Cleveland. Carrasco has allowed at least four runs in three of his last four starts but the Indians have won three of the four and are 8-3 in his 11 starts in 2017. He has dominated the White Sox in two outings earlier this season, yielding just one run and seven hits with 15 strikeouts over 15 innings. Lifetime, Carrasco is 4-9 with a 4.89 ERA in 19 career appearances versus Chicago (18 starts / Indians are 7-11). The pick: Quintana's struggles are real in 2017, as in his previous five seasons (all with Chicago), his ERA has ranged from a high of 3.76 (in his first season of 2012) to a low of 3.20 (last year). However, it sits at 5.30 in 2017, basically TWO runs higher than that five-year average. The White Sox are a poor 14-23 on the road and as noted, Carrasco has dominated Chicago in two previous starts this season. The Indians dominated the AL Central ins 2016, going 49-26 against division rivals. That hasn't been the case so far this year (Indians are only 14-15) but I expect that to change. Why not start here? Make the Indians a 6* play. |
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06-10-17 | Tigers v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 3-11 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The Red Sox lost two of three to the hated Yankees to open the current week but beat the Tigers 5-3 last night to stay three games back of New York in the AL East. Friday's loss was Detroit's second in a row, dropping them to 29-31. The teams continue their three-game series on Saturday, as two former American League Central Division pitching rivals face each other for the sixth time. The pitching matchup: Justin Verlander (4-4 & 4.63 ERA) takes the mound for Detroit and Chris Sale (7-2 & 2.89 ERA) for Boston. The Tigers have won all five previous meetings when Verlander and Sale have squared off, four of them when Sale was with the Chicago White Sox and the other was April 10 of this season with Boston. Verlander was forced out of his last start after two innings due to groin tightness but testing came back negative and he will start with an extra day of rest. Verlander breezed through seven innings against Boston back on April 10, allowing an unearned run on three hits without factoring in the decision. Sale has not lost since April 27 and recovered from a rough first inning at Baltimore on Sunday to strike out nine in six innings while allowing three runs in the win. He leads the majors with 119 strikeouts (has allowed just 17 walks) and is limiting opponents to a .201 batting average (has allowed 61 hits in 84 innings and owns an 0.93 WHIP). Sale struck out 10 in 7 2/3 innings at Detroit back on April 10 but surrendered two runs on five hits to suffer the loss. The pick: Veralnder has faced Boston 17 times in his career and he's just 5-6 (team is 7-8). However, he owns a 2.65 ERA against the Red Sox, including an 0.82 ERA in his last five starts against Boston! Sale has been one of 2017's most dominating pitchers (see above stats) and this one has Under written all over it (10*). |
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06-10-17 | Angels v. Astros -161 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The Astros own MLB's best record (43-19) but they've lost three of four, as injuries are wreaking havoc on their starting rotation. Houston has been forced to manage a revolving door of relievers in recent games with lefties Ashur Tolliver (1st appearance) and Reymin Guduan (third) plus righties Jordan Jankowski (two) and Dayan Diaz (two) all making 2017 debuts as of late. In Friday night's 9-4 loss to the Angels, the Astros welcomed their top pitching prospect to the show, as Francis Martes allowing four runs on four hits and two walks with two strikeouts over 3 2/3 innings of relief. The win was LA's second in a row, as they climbed back to .500 (32-32). However, while the Angels may be in second-place in the AL West, they are 12 games back of Houston. The pitching matchup: Ricky Nolasco (2-6 & 5.05 ERA) takes the mound for LA and Mike Fiers (3-2 & 4.84 ERA) for Houston. Nolasco comes in having lost four consecutive starts, posting a 6.64 ERA during the slide. However, he's had excellent success against the Astros in his career, going 7-1 with a 3.75 ERA in 10 career appearances (nine starts / teams are 8-1). Fiers has won his last two starts (allowed just two runs in each) and while he owns a modest three wins in 11 starts this season, the Astros are 7-4 in his starts. Fiers is 2-2 with a 5.30 ERA in six career starts against the Angels (teams are 3-3). The pick: The Astros are scrambling a bit right now but the Angels are a modest 14-20 on the road, where they are averaging just 3.76 RPG. Mike Trout remains sidelined and Fiers is an underrated pitcher. Make the Astros an 8* play. |
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06-10-17 | Phillies v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: The St. Louis Cards lost three games last weekend at Wrigley and then lost a four-game set at Cincinnati to open this week. They returned home from their 0-7 road trip to open a seven-game homestand on Friday, beginning with the MLB-worst, Philadelphia Phillies. Five of the Cardinals' first six batters in the lineup recorded two hits last night but even so, the Cards barely eked out a 3-2 win over the Phillies, who are now 21-38 and on a three-game slide (Phils are just 9-24 on the road). The win gives the Cards a 27-32 record and with no one playing all that well in the NL Central, find themselves a modest 4 1/2 games out of first (the first-place Brewers visit St. Louis for four games beginning Monday). The pitching matchup: Nick Pivetta (1-2 & 5.18 ERA) gets the start for the Phillies, up against the Cards' Carlos Martinez (4-5 & 3.29 ERA). Pivetta is a rookie who is coming off his first ML victory, winning 11-4 in Atlanta on Monday. He gave up three runs over five innings in his win but note that he has yet to work more than five innings in any of his five 2017 starts. Pivetta will be facing St. Louis for the first time. Martinez has lost two of his last three outings, including Monday's 4-2 setback at Cincinnati in which he allowed four runs in 6 1/3 innings. Martinez has proven to a quality starter these last two seasons, winning 14 and 16 games, respectively. Martinez has made five appearances against the Phillies in his career (3.21 ERA) but just two starts, winning both. The pitching matchup: The Phillies are just 9-24 on the road, where they are averaging only 3.64 RPG (Phils have scored just four runs during their current three-game slide!). Martinez has pitched well at home, winning three straight decisions and going unbeaten in five outings since losing to the Reds on April 9. In seven home starts in 2017, he owns a 2.19 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. The jury is still out on Pivetta but he'll face a St. Louis team which has averaged a modest 3.70 ERA in 30 home games so far in 2017 and a team struggling at the plate recently, having scored only 11 runs over its last five games, overall (that's 2.2 per). Make the Under an 8* play. |
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06-09-17 | Reds v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Reds have won four in a row and at 29-30, are just two games out of first place in the tightly-bunched NL Central. Cincinnati completed a four-game sweep of St. Louis with a 5-2 victory Thursday but come to LA to open a three-game series at Dodger Stadium where the Reds have lost six straight contests and five series in a row. The 36-25 Los Angeles Dodgers own the second-most home victories (22) in MLB, despite kicking off a six-game homestand Monday-Wednesday by losing two of three to Washington. Good news is on the way though, as third baseman Justin Turner (.379) could return Friday after missing 19 games because of a hamstring injury The pitching matchup: Amir Garrett (3-4 & 7.17 ERA) will start for the Reds and Rich Hill (2-2 & 4.15 ERA) gets the call for the Dodgers. Garrett all was crushed his last time out, allowing nine runs (eight earned) on seven hits (three HRs)) and three walks in 2 2/3 innings of a 13-8 loss to Atlanta on Sunday. "I was trying to do too much with the changeup," he told reporters. "It is easy to fix. I need to get in the bullpen and work on it." It's nice to know that he is confident but since winning his first two career starts, the rookie is 1-4 with a 9.27 ERA in his last seven outings (Reds are 2-5). Hill has been limited to sis starts in 2017, mostly because of lingering blister issues (that plagued him last year, as well). He received a no-decision after yielding three runs (two earned), three hits and four walks while striking out five in four innings of Los Angeles' 10-8 victory in Milwaukee last Saturday. He was 3-2 with a 1.83 ERA in six outings with the Dodgers in 2016 but has not pitched into the sixth inning this season. Hill is 3-2 with a 4.05 ERA in nine games (seven starts / teams are 4-3) versus Cincinnati. The pick: With Garrett's recent woes, the initial thought would be over. However, the Dodgers have managed just five runs in their last four games. Also, note that when healthy (Hill says he's in good shape), he's pitched well (note his 1.83 ERA in six starts for LA in 2016). Make the Under a 10* play. |
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06-09-17 | Rangers v. Nationals -169 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -169 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nats returned home off a 7-2 road trip but instead a Thursday "off-day," had to play a make-up game with the Orioles. The Mats won 6-1 and at 39-21, own the NL's best record, as well as an 11 1/2 game lead in the NL East. Washington continues what will now be a seven-game homestand with a three-game series against the Texas Rangers. Texas has dropped 11 of 14 and its 10-game winning steak (May 9-19), seems further removed than just a month. The Rangers find themselves in the midst of a brutal schedule to start the month of June with nine of their first 11 games against teh Astros and the Nationals, teams with the two best records in baseball. The pitching matchup: Andrew Cashner (2-5 & 3.39 ERA) gets the nod for Texas and Tanner Roark (6-2 & 3.95 ERA). Casher got an elephant off his back in his last start of May, ending an 18-start road win-less streak dating to September 2015. However, there was no carry over from his streak-busting win on the road, as he allowed five runs on a season-worst 11 hits over six innings in his first start of June, losing 6-5 at home to Houston last Saturday. Cashner is 2-4 with a 4.50 ERA in 12 career appearances (seven starts / 3-4 witha 5.20 ERA) versus Washington. Roark endured a four-start win-less drought (from May 2-18 (Nats were 1-3) but has won his last three outings, pitching at least seven innings in each while allowing just a combined five ERs (2.18 ERA). Roark has made one start against Texas, allowing only one run in seven innings but took the loss back on June 1, 2014. The pick: Speaking of 2014, Roark won 15 games that year, pitched out of the bullpen most of 2015 and then won a career-high 16 games last season. Tonight, he looks to become the third seven-game winner for the Washington Nationals in 2017. As for Cashner, he's back out on the road and remember, he won his most recent road start on May 28 but that ended an 18-start road win-less streak dating to September 2015. Make the Nats an 8* play. |
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06-08-17 | Astros -190 v. Royals | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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06-08-17 | Orioles v. Nationals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Battle of the Beltway gets set for a one-game showdown on Thursday, as the Orioles and Nats meet in Washington, making up a May 11th game which was rained out. The Orioles won both games in Baltimore back on May 8 and 9, before the Nats won May 10th in Washington, before getting rained out. The Nats are returning home off a very successful 7-2 nine-game road trip and at 37-21, own the NL's best record and an 11 1/2 game lead in the NL East. The Orioles are 31-26 and sit in third place in the AL East, 2 1/2 games back of the first-place Yankees. Baltimore is 21-10 at home but just 10-16 on the road. The pitching matchup: Alec Asher (2-3 & 3.62 ERA) will start for Baltimore, opposed by Washington's Joe Ross (2-2 & 7.34 ERA). Asher made his fourth start and 13th appearance of the season on Friday against Boston and breezed through 6 1/3 innings while allowing two runs and three hits without issuing a walk. That was a a HUGE improvement from his previous start, when he allowed six runs on six hits in just two innings at Houston on May 28th. Asher spent 2015 and 2016 in the NL East with the Phillies and is 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA in two career starts against Washington. Ross is in danger of losing his rotation spot after getting lit up for a total of 12 runs (11 earned) on 19 hits in seven innings over his last two starts. He had returned to the rotation on May 23 and beat Seattle 10-1, allowing just and one run in eight innings but he's been brutal in his last two outings. Ross has never started against Baltimore, making a lone relief appearance against the Orioles in his career (1 /3 hitless innings). The pick: The Nats haven't bested the Orioles in a Beltway Series since going 4-2 back in 2007. The 2017 edition stands at 2-1 Baltimore, heading into this game. Washington had to fly back from LA last night, after a day game with the Dodgers, and were scheduled to have a day off. However, they must make up that May 11 rain out. Neither pitcher is a front of the rotation starter but this game still 'smells' like an Under (10*s). |
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06-08-17 | Angels v. Tigers -152 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -152 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
full analysis soon |
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06-07-17 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -183 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 26 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The Diamondbacks returned home off a 5-6 road trip which ended with three straight losses. However, a return to Chase Field was just what the doctor ordered, as Arizona won 10-2 last night over the Padres, led by Jake Lamb's four RBI. He extended his hitting streak at Chase Field to 10 games, where the D'backs have won seven in a row to give them MLB's best home mark at 22-8. The Padres managed only five hits in Tuesday's loss, as San Diego lost its third straight after winning five in a row (sweep of the Cubs is now a distant memory). The pitching matchup: Luis Perdomo (0-2 & 5.01 ERA) gets the nod for the Padres and Zack Greinke (7-3 & 3.06 ERA) for teh D'backs. Perdomo has yet to win in nine starts this season (team is 3-6) but he is coming off his best outing of the season, a seven-inning performance against the Chicago Cubs last Wednesday in which he settled for a no-decision despite allowing just one run on three hits. It marked the seventh no-decision in nine starts this season. Perdomo fell to 3-2 with a 4.76 ERA in eight career appearances (four starts / he's 2-2 with a 5.09 ERA) against Arizona on May 20 after surrendering eight runs on 11 hits in just three-plus innings. Greinke has won six of his last seven decisions, including last Thursday at Miami in which he allowed two runs (one earned) on four hits over seven innings. It marked the fifth time in 12 outings he has worked at least seven innings. Greinke is 9-2 with a 1.93 ERA in 18 career starts against San Diego (teams are 13-5). The pick: The sad-sack Padres are 23-36 overall, including 10-20 on the road where they've allowed 5.23 RPG. Arizona is 22-8 at home (averaging 6.17 RPG) and send out Greinke, who is 5-0 in seven home starts (team is 6-1) in 2017, posting a 2.49 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Make Arizona an 8* play. |
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06-07-17 | Pirates v. Orioles -143 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 23 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: The Orioles won 6-5 (10 innings) last night at home over the Pirates. Baltimore led all of MLB with 253 home runs last season but opened this series with a more modest total of 76 HRs, which ranked ninth. However, the Orioles cranked four HRs last night, including a two-run shot in the ninth that sent the game into extra innings. The 30-26 Orioles (2 1/2 games out of first in the AL East) are somewhat stuck in neutral lately (5-5 last 10) but are 20-10 at home. The Pirates look to earn a split in this two-game IL series tonight and have been languishing near the bottom of the NL Central all season but with no team playing all that well, the 26-32 Pirates may be in last place but they are just 4 1/2 games out of first. The pitching matchup: Chad Kuhl (1-5 & 6.02 ERA) gets the ball for Pittsburgh and Wade Miley (2-3 & 2.82 ERA) for Baltimore. Kuhl won his 2017 debut (back on April 8) but is winless, since. He's 0-5 over 10 starts (team is 2-8) and has has not pitched more than five innings since a six-inning stint at St. Louis back on April 18. Kuhl is seeing the Orioles for the first time but owns a 2.19 ERA in two interleague starts (think that matters?). Miley's had a solid season for Baltimore and is coming off a strong effort against one of his former teams, as he held the Red Sox to one run on five hits in seven innings to earn a win last Thursday. He has allowed two or fewer ERs in seven of his last nine outings in 2017, although the Orioles are just 6-5 in his starts. Miley is 2-2 with a 3.11 ERA in six career starts against the Pirates (teams are 3-3). The pick: No reason to believe that Kuhl will gets things turned around here (6.02 ERA, 1.58 WHIP & .293 BAA) and as noted, Miley's given the Orioles a chance to win in almost all of his 2017 starts. He deserves a win here and gets it against a Pittsburgh team just 12-19 on the road. Make Baltimore a 10* play. |
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06-07-17 | Nationals v. Dodgers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Nationals beat the Dodgers 2-1 last night behind Scherzer's dominating pitching (7 IP/ 3 hits / 1 unearned run / 14Ks) and have now gone 7-1 on their current road trip. That trip concludes with an afternoon game at Dodger Stadium on Wednesday, as the Nats look to sweep the Dodgers (won 4-2 on Monday). The Dodgers were shut out 3-0 at Milwaukee on Sunday and have now been held to just three runs by the Nats these last two games. LA had been 21-8 at home as the new week began but are now 21-10 on their home field and look to not only avoid a three-game home sweep but break out a a slide which has seen them lose five of their last seven. |
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06-06-17 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -185 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The Arizona Diamondbacks welcome the San Diego Padres to Chase Field, looking to avoid a fourth straight defeat. As for the Padres, after ripping off a five-game winning streak (including a three-game sweep of the Cubs!), they lost Saturday and Sunday at home to the Rockies. San Diego is 4-6 against Arizona this season, including losing three of four in Arizona from April 24-27. The D'backs are a surprising 34-25 (just two games back of the first-place Rockies), while the Padres are unfortunately, right where most expected them to be (23-35). The pitching matchup: Dinelson Lamet (2-0 & 2.70 ERA) gets the call for San Diego and Robbie Ray (5-3 & 3.00 ERA) for Arizona. Lamet has won both of his first two major league starts, going five innings in each and allowing a combined three runs on eight hits to beat the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs. He has also struck out eight in each outing and can join Stephen Strasburg and Masahiro Tanaka as the only pitchers to strike out eight in each of their first three starts. Ray is coming off his first career shutout, and first complete game, blanking Pittsburgh on four hits while reaching 10 strikeouts for the third time this season. Ray has won three straight starts for the first time in his career and has not permitted a single a run in 23 2/3 innings during that span. However, all three wins have come on the road, where Ray has posted a superb 4-1 record and 0.64 ERA, as compared to a 1-2 mark with a bloated 6.75 ERA at home in five starts (Arizona is). Ray is 2-4 with a 3.79 ERA in six career starts against San Diego The pick: Not sure I'm sold yet on Lamet (sample size of two games) plus the Padres are just 10-19 on the road, allowing 5.07 RPG. Sure, Ray has struggled at home so far, but he's pitched so well in his last three. No reason he shouldn't be confident of turning things around at Chase Field, where the D'backs are 21-8, while averaging 6.03 RPG. Arizona is an 8* play. |
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06-06-17 | Mets v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-10 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rangers had a 10-game winning streak from May 9 through May 19 but that's been long forgotten. The Rangers spent their weekend by losing a three-game series to the major league-leading Astros and open the new week as losers of four straight and 10 of their last 12, leaving them 15 1/2 games behind Houston at 26-31. The New York Mets visit the Rangers for the start of a two-game interleague series on Tuesday and are just 24-31 themselves, after losing four of their last five. However, the Mets do find themselves a little closer to first place in the NL East, 11 1/2 games back of the Nationals. |
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06-06-17 | White Sox v. Rays -157 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -157 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rays ended a nine-game road trip by getting swept in a three-game series at Seattle (outscored 28-7!) and return home with a 4-5 record on the trip (had won four of six to open the trip). Tamp Bay (29-30 and 5 1/2 games out in the AL East) will be home for seven games this week, beginning with this three-game series with the 24-31 White Sox, who limp into Tampa on a five-game losing skid in which they've allowed 43 runs (8.6 per). The pitching matchup: Jose Quintana (2-7 & 5.60 ERA) takes the mound for Chicago against Tampa's Chris Archer (4-3 & 3.74 ERA). Quintana opened the month of May with three quality starts in his first four outings but was lit up for 15 runs on 18 hits over just seven total innings to lose his last two games of the month. He made the All-Star game last season but with two wins, a 5.60 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP, he won't be joining the July festivities in Miami this season. He gave up three HRs against Boston in his last outing, after allowing a total of three HRs in his previous eight starts. Quintana is 1-3 with a 3.27 ERA in six career starts against the Rays (team is 2-4). Archer suffered through a miserable 2016 season (9-19, 4.02 ERA / 10-23 in starts, minus-$1553, MLB's worst moneyline mark among starters) but broke David Price’s franchise record for strikeouts in a month when he fanned 58 in May. He has totaled 95 in 79 1/3 innings overall this season while recording seven quality starts in 12 outings in 2017, Archer is 3-0 with a 3.27 ERA in five career starts versus the White Sox (Rays are 4-1). The pick: Archer hasn't returned to the All-Star form he had in the 2014-15 seasons but he's leaps and bounds better than he was in 2016. The White have lost five in a row overall (allowing 8.60 RPG) plus have gone just 12-20 on the road. Meanwhile, Quintana has fallen off dramatically from his last few seasons, ones in which he produced ERAs of 3.32, 3.36 and 3.20 in 32 starts each year. Make Tampa Bay a 10* play. |
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06-05-17 | Blue Jays +101 v. A's | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Toronto Blue Jays opened the season 2-11 and were only 8-17 by the end of April. However, Sunday's 3-2 win over the New York Yankees gave the Blue Jays a split of the four-game set and left them 10-3 over their last 13 contests. Toronto is now 28-29 (that's 26-18 since that 2-11 start) and will open a three-game series tonight in Oakland with a chance to reach .500 for the first time this season. Oakland lost 11-10 to Washington on Sunday and has dropped six of eight which leaves them at 24-32 on the season. The A's have now allowed an average of 10.3 runs in their last four losses! The pitching matchup:.A pair of lefties square off tonight, with J.A. Happ (0-3 & 4.50 ERA) taking the mound for Toronto and Sean Manaea (4-3 & 3.91 ERA) for Oakland..Happ was one of baseball's three 20-game winners a year ago (20-4) but he's still seeking his first victory in 2017, a season that's been limited to just four starts so far due to a 1 1/2-month stint on the DL.He allowed two runs in four innings in his return from the DL on Tuesday against the Reds, settling for a no-decision in a 6-4 Toronto win. He has failed to get through five innings in three consecutive starts. There's some good news though, as Happ is 4-0 with a 2.66 ERA in seven career starts versus Oakland (teams are 6-1). Manaea retired the first 10 men he faced while dominating Cleveland on Wednesday, finishing with nine strikeouts while allowing one run on three hits in seven innings. He is 4-2 with a 2.92 ERA over his last seven starts (A's are 4-3) and has allowed five hits or less in all nine outings on the year (A's are just 4-5 in his starts). He allowed two runs on three hits in five innings in his one prior start against Toronto, which came last year. The pick: Hard to argue with the way Manaea has pitched but the Blue Jays are surging (10-3 L13) and the A's open this series having lost seven of their last 11 games. The A's are batting just .236 as a team (ranks 26th), while allowing 5.27 RPG (5.39 at home). The team's 5.02 bullpen ERA is a major factor in that. Make Toronto a 10* play. |
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06-05-17 | Giants v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The 30-27 Milwaukee Brewers still hold down the top spot in the NL Central but are now just one game up on the Cubs, who swept a three-game home series against the Cards over the weekend. Eric Thames was mired in a 4-for-33 slump and with just one HR since May 9 and was out of the starting lineup in Saturday's loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers but he hit his 15th homer to help the Brewers salvage the finale of the three-game set with a 3-0 Sunday win. The Milwaukee Brewers wrap up a seven-game homestand this week, beginning with the first of four games with the Giants on Monday. San Francisco lost 9-7 at Philadelphia on Sunday, the team's ninth loss in its last 12 games, leaving the Giants a woeful 23-35 here in 2017. |
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06-04-17 | Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cubs returned home off an 0-6 West Coast trip, getting swept by the Dodgers and then the sad-sack Padres. Waiting for them were the hated Cardinals and the "Friendly Confines" have been good to the Cubs so far this weekend, with a 3-2 win on Friday and a 5-3 win on Saturday. The Chicago Cubs are just 27-27 in 2017, in large part because several of their young stars have failed to live up their expectations. They now go for a three-game sweep of the 26-27 Cards Sunday night on ESPN. The pitching matchup: Michael Wacha (2-3 & 3.99 ERA) takes the mound tonight for St. Louis and Kyle Hendricks (4-3 & 3.75 ERA). Wacha is win-less in his last six starts (he's 0-2 and the Cards 1-5), He hasn’t made it through five innings in either of his last two outings, allowing10 runs (nine earned) in just seven innings. Wacha has not pitched well vs. the Cubs in his career, going 4-5 with a 5.82 ERA in 11 starts (team is 5-6). Hendricks retired the first 10 batters he faced Monday at San Diego but a grand slam from Hunter Renfroe ultimately ruined his day. After a slow start in 2017, he has five quality starts in his last seven outings and he owns a 1.96 ERA in his last three home starts. Hendricks is 1-2 with a 3.78 ERA in eight starts against the Cardinals (Cubs are 4-4). The pick: The Cardinals have not scored more than four runs in any of their last 10 games (3-7 record) and the Cubs surely aren't ripping the cover off the ball, either. Chicago was held to nine runs in its 0-6 West Coast trip and has a modest eight runs the first two games of this series (that's 2.13 RPG over the team's last eight games. However, the over is 7-2 in Wacha's nine starts in 2017 and in his 11 career starts against the Cubs, the ob\ver is a remarkable 10-1. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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06-04-17 | Indians v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The 24-30 Kansas City Royals are tied for last place in the AL Central with the Chicago White Sox and are just one-half game ahead of 24-31 Oakland, for the worst record in the AL. However, they have pretty much owned the defending AL champs (Cleveland) these last eight days. The Royals took two of three at Cleveland last weekend and rolled over the Indians in the first two games of this current series by a combined score of 16-5. "We have to get a little rest and come back and play a lot better because that wasn't close to good enough," Cleveland manager Terry Francona told reporters after Saturday's 12-5 setback. The good news for Cleveland is that no team is playing all that well in the AL Central, so despite the Indians' 28-26 record, they are just one game out of first place. ÂThe pitching matchup: Trevor Bauer (5-4 & 6.00 ERA) gets the ball for Cleveland and Eric Skoglund (1-0 & 0.00 ERA) makes his second ML start for Kansas City. Bauer's season numbers are not good but he is 3-0 in his last four starts (Indians are 3-1), posting a 4.13 ERA but he also owns a 36-4 KW ratio in that span. Bauer is 1-2 with a 3.56 ERA in seven career starts against the Royals (team is 4-3). Skoglund made his major-league debut against Detroit on Tuesday and scattered two hits and one walk over 6 1/3 scoreless innings while striking out five. He was 2-3 with a 4.53 ERA in eight starts at Triple-A before being recalled and owns a 3.74 ERA in 60 career minor-league games. |
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06-04-17 | Red Sox -180 v. Orioles | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Orioles saw their three-game winning streak halted Saturday with Boston's 5-2 win. That victory allowed the 30-25 Red Sox to leap-frog the 29-25 Orioles, as both team chase the 32-21 first-place Yankees in the AL East. The rubber match of the series goes Sunday with the winner opening the new week in second-place. The pitching matchup: Chris Sale (6-2 & 2.77 ERA) of Boston and Chris Tillman (1-2 & 5.87 ERA) square off in today's contest. Sale is coming off his worst (and shortest) outing of the season but still managed to win his fifth consecutive decision despite giving up six runs (five earned) on 10 hits over five innings. Sale has been reached for 10 runs in his last two outings and has not recorded 10 Ks in either following a streak of eight consecutive starts with double-digits in strikeouts. However, he has not lost since April 27, going 5-0 in his last six starts (team is 5-1), a stretch that began with an 11-strikeout performance over eight innings against Baltimore on May 2. In his career, Sale is 2-3 with a 2.92 ERA against Baltimore (teams are 3-3 in his six starts). Tillman is also coming off a rocky and abbreviated outing, lasting only 2 2/3 innings while yielding five runs on seven hits (three HRs) in an 8-3 loss to the New York Yankees on Memorial Day. Tillman missed the first five weeks of the 2017 season due to shoulder bursitis issues and remains in search of some consistency. However, he has an 11-3 record with a 2.95 ERA, against the Red Sox (team is 13-7 in those 20 starts), the most wins he's recorded versus another opponent. The pick: That said, I'm not sure Tillman's history against Boston is all that relevant in this contest, as Tillman's lasted just 23 innings in his five 2017 starts, allowing 32 hits with only a 16-11 KW ratio. That leaves him with a 1.87 WHIP and .323 BAA against, to go along with his 5.87 ERA. I'll make Boston an 8* play. |
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06-04-17 | White Sox v. Tigers -188 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tigers look to sweep the White Sox as this three-game series in Detroit wraps up on Sunday afternoon. Detroit has scored 25 runs in the first two games, pounding out 33 hits (including seven HRs). The Tigers have won three straight and four of five to climb within a game of .500 at 27-28. Meanwhile, the White Sox pitching woes extend further back than the last two games of this series, as Chicago's staff has allowed a total of 42 runs during a four-game slide which leaves the team at 24-30. |
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06-03-17 | Red Sox -116 v. Orioles | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: The Red Sox had won eight of 10 and were making up some ground in the AL East when they arrived in Baltimore on Thursday to open a four-game series with the Orioles. However, the Orioles hit four HRs in a 7-5 victory on Thursday and then added two more to eke out a 3-2 win in Friday's contest. The pair of wins moved the 29-24 Orioles past the 29-25 Red Sox into second place in the AL East, 2 1/2 games behind the 31-21 Yankees. The pitching matchup: David Price (0-0 & 5.40 ERA) will make his second start of the season for the Red Sox, while Dylan Bundy (6-3 & 2.89 ERA) will take the mound for the Orioles, who can clinch the series with a win Saturday or Sunday. Price began the season on the disabled list after suffering an elbow strain in spring training and has missed most of the first two months of the season due to those elbow issues. He returned at the Chicago White Sox on Memorial Day, allowing three runs on two hits (one HR) and two walks in five innings while striking out four but did not factor in the decision (Red Sox lost 5-4). Price went 3-1 with a 3.71 ERA in five starts against Baltimore last season and is 11-6 with a 2.85 ERA versus the Orioles in his career over 25 starts (teams are 14-11). Bundy has some solid numbers this season but snapped a four-start win-less streak by holding the Yankees to two runs on seven hits over seven innings on Monday in a 3-2 final. He has surrendered two or fewer ERs in eight of his 11 starts (Orioles are 7-4). Bundy is already making his fourth start against Boston this season and has gone 2-1 in the first three, including seven scoreless innings in the lone home start back on April 21. That makes him 3-34 with 4.63 ERA in six career starts against Boston. The pick: Bundy has surprisingly been the Orioles' best pitcher this year, after he earned a spot in the starting rotation over the second half of the 2016 season. However, I feel he is over-matched here against Price, who will be making the 250th start of his career in this contest. Make Boston a 10* play. |
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06-03-17 | Indians -176 v. Royals | Top | 5-12 | Loss | -176 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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06-02-17 | Twins v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Twins came to Anaheim on a four-game losing streak in which they had allowed a whopping 48 runs (40 in a three-game home series against the Astros) and shut down the Angels 4-2, giving Minnesota MLB's best road record at 15-5 (plus-$1222 vs. the moneyline). Albert Pujols failed in his attempt to become the ninth player in major-league history to reach 600 HRs, as the Angels fell to 2-2 on their seven-game homestand,. Playing in a division with the Astros (owners of MLB's best record at 38-16), the 28-29 Angels find themselves 11 1/2 games out of first place. Minnesota began its 10-game road trip with a win and despite a modest 27-23 record, are in a virtual tie with the Indians for first place in the AL Central. |
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06-02-17 | Pirates v. Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 12-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mets had won three straight before dropping the final two games of their four-game set against Milwaukee this week. They host Pittsburgh for a three-game weekend series with Pirates starting tonight, after taking two of three against the Pirates last weekend at Pittsburgh. Both teams sit six games below .500 entering this series (Pirates are 24-30 and the Mets 23-29). The Mets may be in second place in the NL East but they are 10 games behind the Nats, while even though the Pirates are in last in the NL Central, they are just five games out of first. |
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06-02-17 | Cardinals v. Cubs -155 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: The Chicago Cubs limp home from an 0-6 West Coast swing (got swept by the Dodgers and Padres) and I guess the good news would be that even though they are just 25-27, they are only three games out of first place in the NL Central. Visiting Wrigley this weekend will be the hated-St. Louis Cardinals who are 1 1/2 games ahead of the Cubs and 1 1/2 behind the Brewers, after beating the Dodgers 2-1 on Wednesday and 2-0 on Thursday. Coming to town with St. Louis will be Dexter Fowler, who was a spark plug for the Cubs’ curse-breaking World Series championship team in 2016. He signed with the Cards as a free agent and the Cubs’ lineup hasn’t been the same without Fowler at the top. That was especially true on the team's recent West Coast trip where the Cubs scored a total of nine runs is six games. |
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06-01-17 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -137 | Top | 12-2 | Loss | -137 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
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06-01-17 | Dodgers v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cards have found the going pretty tough in what's been a 13-game stretch against NL West teams the Dodgers, Giants and Rockies. St. Louis did eke out a 2-1 win at home over the Dodgers last night but the victory represents only the Cards' fourth win in 12 games against this NL West trio. Meanwhile, Wednesday's loss halted the Dodgers' six-game winning streak but the team ended May with a 19-9 mark, the third-best record for that month during the club's tenure in Los Angeles (free history lesson: The Dodgers moved from Brooklyn to LA to begin the 1958 season). The pitching matchup: Brandon McCarthy (5-1 & 3.28 ERA) will start for LA and Adam Wainwright (5-3, 4.20 ERA) for St. Louis. McCarthy has has put together excellent back-to-back outings, allowing just one run on five hits over 12 innings in the two victories (0.75 ERA). He blanked the Chicago Cubs on two hits over six innings in his last start and has given up two or fewer runs in six of his eight. McCarthy has posted a 4.15 ERA in three career no-decisions against St. Louis (teams are 1-2). Wainwright has won three straight starts,allowing only one run on 12 hits over 20 1/3 innings during the stretch (0.44 ERA!). He's put his poor start in 2017 behind him and shut down Colorado at Coors Field in his last outing, allowing just three hits over seven scoreless innings. Wainwright's seen a lot of the Dodgers with 14 career appearances (11 starts), going 4-5 with a 2.90 ERA. The pick: As noted above, both McCarthy and Wainwright enter in excellent form. The Dodgers have been dominant at home (21-8 while averaging about 5 1/2 runs) but mediocre on the road at just 12-13, while averaging 4.44 RPG. The Cards have also struggled at home (just 13-15, averaging 3.79 RPG) and during their current 4-8 run against NL West opponents, have averaged a woeful 3.17 RPG. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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06-01-17 | A's +1.5 v. Indians | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The A's snapped a four-game losing streak with a 3-1 victory Wednesday night in Cleveland. However, it marked just the team's eighth road win of the 2017 season Oakland is 8-19 on the road and 23-29 overall, already 14 games back of Houston in the AL West (Astros own MLB's best record at 38-16). The A's will wrap up a seven-game road trip Thursday afternoon against the Cleveland Indians, who are 27-24 and in a virtual tie with the 26-23 Twins for first in the AL Central. However, Cleveland has struggled at home so far in 2017, going just 11-14 (Indians were 53-28 at home in 2016, plus-$1230 vs.the moneyline). |
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05-31-17 | Nationals -168 v. Giants | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: Bryce Harper has appealed the suspension for his role in Monday's brawl and will be in the lineup when the Washington Nationals wrap up their three-game series against the host San Francisco Giants on Wednesday. The Nats are going for a three-game road sweep, after winning 3-0 on Monday and 6-3 last night. Washington has now won seven of its last nine contests (leads the NL East by 8 1/2 games with a 32-19 record), while the Giants have dropped six of their last eight and at 22-32, sit 11 1/2 games back in the NL West with a record better than only the 21-33 Padres in the division. The pitching matchup: Max Scherzer (5-3 & 2.77 ERA) gets the nod for Washington and Matt Cain (3-3 & 4.45 ERA) for San Francisco. Scherzer struck out a season-best 13 while dominating San Diego in his last start, when he gave up one run and three hits in 8 2/3 innings of a 5-1 victory. He leads the NL with 89 strikeouts and is holding opponents to a .189 batting average while posting a 0.94 WHIP. That Nats should be better than just 6-4 in his 10 starts. However, Scherzer has not pitched well against the Giants in his career, going is 2-4 with a 5.30 ERA in seven career starts against the Giants (teams are 2-5). Cain has been inconsistent over his last five starts (he's 1-3 / team is 2-3), twice giving up just one earned run and twice allowing seven or more. Cain is 7-5 with a 3.30 ERA in 17 career starts against the Nationals (Giants are 11-6) and didn't allow a run while beating them twice last season. The pick: It's difficult to predict what to expect from Cain these days but the Giants remain in a funk and have averaged a woeful 3.31 RPG in going 13-13 at home. Meanwhile, Scherzer almost always gives the Nats an excellent chance to win and Washington is 16-10 on the road, where the Nats are averaging a healthy 5.62 RPG. Make Washington an 8* play |
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05-31-17 | Brewers v. Mets -178 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -178 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mets have taken the first two of this four-game home series with the Brewers by scores of 4-2 and 5-4 (12 innings). New York has now won three in a row and four of five to reach 23-27 but are still 8 1/2 games back of the Nats in the NL East. Meanwhile, Milwaukee has dropped seven of nine games to fall to 27-25 but with no team playing all that well in the NL Central, the Brewers remain in first place, 1 1/2 games up on both the Cards and Cubs. The teams continue their four-game series on Wednesday night. |
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05-31-17 | Phillies v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-10 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The Marlins are happy to see the month of May end, as even though Miami has won four of its last five (and are on the verge of a three-game sweep of the Phils), the Marlins check in at 9-18 overall in May. Miami won 7-2 last night (third straight win) and has now scored at least seven runs for the third time during its 4-1 stretch. The Marlins go for a three-game sweep of the Phils, which would be their first sweep over their NL East rival since June 29-July 1, 2012. Giving them a good chance to complete that sweep is the fact that the Phillies have lost 24 of their last 30 and own MLB's worst overall record at 17-33 (also own MLB's worst moneyline mark at minus-$1388). The pitching matchup:Aaron Nola (2-2 & 4.34 ERA) will take the mound for Philadelphia and Dan Straily (3-3 & 3.83 ERA) for Miami. Nola is off his worst outing of the season in Friday's 5-2 loss to Cincinnati, surrendering a pair of HRs among the six hits and five runs he gave up in six innings. Nola is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA over three career starts against Miami (team is 2-1). Straily extended his unbeaten streak to four starts (he's 2-0 but the team just 2-2) with Friday's 8-5 win over the LA Angels. He ranks second in the majors in batting average against at .176, after allowing three runs on six hits across 5 1/3 innings in beating LA. Straily threw five scoreless innings against Philadelphia last year to win his only career start versus the Phillies (1-0 & 0.00 ERA). The pick: Philadelphia has scratched out only six hits through two games in Miami and has now scored just two runs or fewer eight times in its last 10 contests. No reason to think that the Philly bats will wake up here vs. Straily, who been dominant at home with a 2.45 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and .150 batting average against. Straily's counterpart (Nola) has been much better away from Citizens Bank Park (with a 3.18 ERA) than at home (6.00 ERA) plus was very sharp against Miami last year despite picking up two no-decisions, permitting just three runs over 12 innings while holding the Marlins to a .190 average. The Under is 10* play. |
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05-30-17 | Cubs v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: No team is "pulling way" in the NL Central, so Chicago's modest 25-25 record has them just 1 1/2 games out of first place. However, the team's struggling offense is cause for concern. The Padres won 5-2 win in Monday’s series opener, sending Chicago to its fourth straight loss to begin a six-game West Coast trip. The Cubs are 1-for-24 with runners in scoring position during their four-game skid and they’ve left 31 men on base. The Cubs are batting .238 as a team (25rth) and heir 65 HRs rank 13th. The win was San Diego's second in a row but at 20-33, the Padres own a better record than only the 17-32 Phillies among all MLB teams. The pitching matchup: Eddie Butler (2-0 & 1.93 ERA) gets the nod for the Cubs and Dinelson Lamet (1-0 & 1.80 ERA) for the Padres. Butler is making a strong bid to remain in the rotation, as he has allowed just three runs over 14 innings in his first three outings with the Cubs. He had some control problems in his second start (five walks in three innings), but he rebounded Thursday to hold San Francisco to one run on four hits over five innings and earn his second win. Butler started with Colorado in 2014 and is in his first season with the Cubs. He had made 36 appearances (28 starts) with the Rockies from 2014-16, going 6-16 with a 6.50 ERA. He is 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA in three games (two starts) against the Padres, all at Petco Park. Lamet was impressive in his major-league debut Thursday in New York against the Mets, striking out eight and allowing one run and three hits over five innings (a solo HR accounted for the only run he allowed). Lamet has averaged more than a strikeout per inning throughout his minor-league career and had struck 50 over 39 innings over eight starts at Triple-A El Paso before being called up. The pick: Butler has pitched very well but his brief ML history says it's unlikely to last. As for Lamet, this is just his second career start. The Cubs are overdue to begin hitting and there is every reason to think that Butler's "good outings" are about to end. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-30-17 | Red Sox -168 v. White Sox | Top | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The White Sox beat the Red Sox 5-4 on Memorial Day to open this three-game series. That gives them four wins in their last five games and an overall record of 24-26. The Red Sox have now dropped two straight following a six-game winning streak and find themselves at 27-23. Chicago, despite its losing record, is only 3 1/2 games out of first in the AL Central, while the Red Sox, in the much more competitive AL East, are three games back of first, despite a better record. The pitching matchup: Chris Sale (5-2 & 2.34 ERA) takes the mound for Boston and Jose Quintana (2-6 & 4.82 ERA) for Chicago. In a rebuilding rebuilding effort over the winter, Chicago shipped ace Chris Sale to Boston for a slew of prospects. Sale returns to Chicago for the first time to face off against his former team. Sale is an early Cy Young contender, leading the majors with 101 strikeouts. However, he did just see a string of eight straight starts logging double-digit Ks come to an end when he struck out six in a win over Texas on Wednesday. He allowed four runs (three earned) on six hits in 7 1/3 innings but finally got some support from his offense and earned the win in a 9-4 victory. Sale should be familiar with the mound at Guaranteed Rate Field, where he is 42-24 with a 3.01 ERA in his career. Quintana allowed one run on one hit over eight innings at Seattle on May 19 but could not match that effort Wednesday while getting crushed for eight runs on eight hits in 4 1/3 innings at Arizona. His ERA jumped nearly a full run from 3.92 to 4.82. Quintana has pitched well against Boston, going 3-0 with a 2.87 ERA in seven starts (teams are 5-2). The pick: Sale said he has a soft spot for White Sox fans for the way they treated him from 2010-16. However, those fans may not like him much in this game, as Sale has been dominant and if he starts getting some support, will be near-unbeatable. He's allowed just 45 hits in 73 innings with a 101-14 KW ratio. That leaves him with an 0.81 WHIP and opponents BA of .177. Make Boston an 8* play. |
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05-30-17 | Reds v. Blue Jays -169 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The Blue Jays lost nine of 11 to open the season and stood just 8-17 after 25 games. This, from a team which had played of each of the last two ALCS matchups. However, Toronto has begun to dig out of the hole it put itself in lately with Memorial Day's 17-2 thrashing of the Reds serving as a prime example. The Blue Jays pounded out a season-high 23 hits (just two shy of the club record) and almost doubled their previous season best in runs. The victory gives Toronto a 16-10 record in May and the team looks for its seventh win in eight games on Tuesday, when it continues this three-game series versus the visiting Cincinnati Reds. The Reds were 19-15 in games played through May 11 but are now two games under .500, after losing 11 of their last 16 contests. |
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05-29-17 | Rays +112 v. Rangers | Top | 10-8 | Win | 112 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Texas took a nine-game winning streak into its three-city, 10-game trip which began back on May 19th. The Rangers ran the streak to 10 games with a 5-3 win in Detroit on that night but then lost six of their next eight games. The Rangers stopped a five-game losing streak Sunday with a 3-1 victory in Toronto Blue Jays, completing the trip at 3-6 (they have won just two of eight since that 10-game winning streak!). Texas is back in Arlington on Memorial Day to open an eight-game homestand with Tampa Bay. The Rays took two of three from the Twins over the weekend to improve to 8-3 on the road this month, as they get set to open this three-game series vs. Texas. The pitching matchup: Erasmo Ramirez (3-0 & 2.92 ERA) gets the start for Tampa Bay and Martin Perez (2-5 & 3.77 ERA) for Texas.Ramirez has appeared in 15 games in 2017 but this marks juts his fourth start. He's 2-0 with a 2.76 ERA in those starts, with the Rays winning all three games. He just recently rejoined the rotation and has given up two runs in each of those two starts (both team wins). His numbers are excellent in 2017, with a 27-6 KW ratio in 37 innings of work (26 hits allowed), giving him an 0.86 WHIP. He is 0-1 with a 5.72 ERA in 11 career appearances (four starts / teams are 1-3) against Texas. Perez went 1-4 with a 4.26 ERA over six starts in April (team was 1-5) but has improved this month with a 1-1 record and 3.16 mark in four outings (team is 2-2), after permitting three runs and six hits over 6 1/3 innings in a no-decision at Boston on Wednesday. Like his counterpart, Perez has not pitched well against this opponent, going 0-2 with a 5.76 ERA in four starts (team is 1-3) versus the Rays. The pick: I'm sure the Rangers are glad to be home but the team's positive mojo was lost on its road trip. Meanwhile, the Rays are playing well on the road lately (see above) and Ramirez has been an effective pitcher (starting and relieving). Make the Rays a 10* play. |
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05-29-17 | Cubs -198 v. Padres | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -198 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cubs opened their six-game West Coast swing with three losses in LA to the Dodgers, surrendering their modest NL Central lead. The 25-24 Cubs are now in a virtual tie with the Cardinals, with both teams 1 1/2 games back of the division-leading Brewers. Chicago hopes to get back on track when they head to San Diego to begin a three-game series against the struggling Padres on Monday afternoon. The Padres salvaged a split of their six-game road trip with a 5-3 win over Washington on Sunday but at 19-33, they are entrenched in last-place in the NL West, 14 games back of the division-leading Rockies. The Padres rank 29th in runs scored (3.40 per) and 30th (dead-last) in team BA at .220. They come into Memorial Day having scored three or fewer runs in eight of their last 12 games. The pitching matchup: Kyle Hendricks (4-2 & 3.25 ERA) takes the mound for Chicago and Jarred Cosart (0-1 & 4.50 ERA) for San Diego. Hendricks has put his early-season struggles behind him, with a 1.96 ERA over his last six starts. He has not allowed more than two ERs in any of those six outings, showing that his MLB-leading 2.13 ERA from last season was no fluke. Hendricks is 3-0 with a 1.56 ERA in five career starts against the Padres (Cubs are 4-1). Cosart will make his third start since coming off the disabled list. His first start was on May 18th when he allowed just one run over five innings of a no- The set-up: The Cubs opened their six-game West Coast swing with three losses in LA to the Dodgers, surrendering their modest NL Central lead. The 25-24 Cubs are now in a virtual tie with the Cardinals, with both teams 1 1/2 games back of the division-leading Brewers. Chicago hopes to get back on track when they head to San Diego to begin a three-game series against the struggling Padres on Monday afternoon. The Padres salvaged a split of their six-game road trip with a 5-3 win over Washington on Sunday but at 19-33, they are entrenched in last-place in the NL West, 14 games back of the division-leading Rockies. The Padres rank 29th in runs scored (3.40 per) and 30th (dead-last) in team BA at .220. They come into Memorial Day having scored three or fewer runs in eight of their last 12 games. The pitching matchup: Kyle Hendricks (4-2 & 3.25 ERA) takes the mound for Chicago and Jarred Cosart (0-1 & 4.50 ERA) for San Diego. Hendricks has put his early-season struggles behind him, with a 1.96 ERA over his last six starts. He has not allowed more than two ERs in any of those six outings, showing that his MLB-leading 2.13 ERA from last season was no fluke. Hendricks is 3-0 with a 1.56 ERA in five career starts against the Padres (Cubs are 4-1). Cosart will make his third start since coming off the disabled list. His first start was on May 18th when he allowed just one run over five innings of a no-decision against Milwaukee. However, he gave four runs in just 2 2/3 innings against the Mets his last time out (5/24), also allowing a season-high four walks. Cosart’s only previous start against the Cubs was a loss in 2015 in which he was tagged for seven runs in 1 2/3 innings!! The pick: Hendricks is in fine form and has to welcome the idea of facing the punch-less Padres, who rank near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories.The Padres are hitting .189 against Hendricks with less than a runner per inning reaching base over 34 2/3 innings in his five career starts against them, including Hendricks posting a 1.20 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over 15 innings here in San Diego. Anyone really want to back Cosart? Make the Cubs a 6* play. against Milwaukee. However, he gave four runs in just 2 2/3 innings against the Mets his last time out (5/24), also allowing a season-high four walks. Cosart’s only previous start against the Cubs was a loss in 2015 in which he was tagged for seven runs in 1 2/3 innings!! The pick: Hendricks is in fine form and has to welcome the idea of facing the punch-less Padres, who rank near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories.The Padres are hitting .189 against Hendricks with less than a runner per inning reaching base over 34 2/3 innings in his five career starts against them, including Hendricks posting a 1.20 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over 15 innings here in San Diego. Anyone really want to back Cosart? Make the Cubs a 6* play. |
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05-29-17 | Dodgers v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
The pick: Leake has been little more than a journeyman in his career but is sure pitching well in 2017 and I'm starting to believe it just may be "one of those seasons" for him. To go along with his 1.91 ERA, he owns an 0.93 WHIP, 42-10 KW ratio and opponents are batting only .210 against him. The Dodgers are 21-8 at home (averaging more than 5 1/2 runs) but just 10-12 on the road, where they are averaging 4.36 RPG. As for the Cards, they have not played well at home, going only 12-12 while averaging 3.96 RPG. The Under is an 8* play. |
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05-28-17 | Cardinals +109 v. Rockies | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Colorado cruised to a 10-0 victory in the opener of this three-game series on Friday but St. Louis countered on Saturday with a 3-0 victory, as Adam Wainwright won his fifth straight decision by combining with two relievers on a four-hit shutout. It marked only the second time in Rockies franchise history that they were shut out following a shutout win in the previous game at Coors Field and that occurrence also happened against the Cardinals. Colorado is 32-19 leaving them atop the NL West and while St. Louis' 24-22 record is much more modest, the Cards are only a half-game out of first in the tightly-bunched NL Central. The teams meet for the rubber match of this three-game series on Sunday afternoon. The pitching matchup: Lance Lynn (4-2 & 2.53 ERA) will take the mound for the Cards and German Marquez (3-2 & 3.86 ERA) for the Rockies. Lynn allowed just one run on two hits with 10 strikeouts in eight innings this past Tuesday in LA against the Dodgers but his winless streak reached three starts in LA's 2-1 win (13 innings). Lynn is having an excellent season, allowing more than two ERs only twice in nine starts, including just once in his last seven. Lynn has made five career starts against Colorado, going 2-1 with a 2.30 ERA (team is 2-3). Marquez made his 2017 debut back on April 25th against the Nats and got ripped for eight ERs in just four innings of a 15-12 loss. However, he has allowed more than one run just once in his five outings since, earning a win in each of his last three. Marquez has only one career start against St. Louis, a five-inning effort on September 21st of last year, in which he yielded one run on four hits over five innings. The pick: The Rockies are 11-2-2 in series this season and can capture their 12th series win with a victory on Sunday but I don't want to go against Lynn. He ranks second among National League pitchers with an opponents average of .188 and owns a 1.77 ERA in three career starts at Coors Field. Make the Cards a 10* play. |
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05-28-17 | Tigers +102 v. White Sox | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tigers and White Sox have been battling each other and the Chicago weather this weekend, A doubleheader was originally scheduled for Friday but just one game was played, before the teams got in a twin-bill on Saturday. Chicago won 8-2 on Friday and then 3-0 in Game 1 on Saturday before Detroit was able to eke out a 4-3 win in the nightcap. The Tigers had scored two or fewer runs in five of their previous seven games but the team's four runs last night were enough to get them a win. They are now just 2-5 on their 11-game road trip but have a chance to split this series Sunday afternoon. Chicago hopes for a series win with a Sunday victory to kick off a seven-game homestand (the Boston Red Sox visit for three games beginning on Monday). |
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05-27-17 | Cardinals +103 v. Rockies | Top | 3-0 | Win | 103 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The Colorado Rockies used a 14-hit attack to crush St. Louis 10-0 on Friday, their fifth win in six games. It was a nice bounce-back for Colorado, which lost Thursday 2-1 at Philadelphia in 11 innings. The Rockies had scored six or more runs in six consecutive contests before being held to that one run on Thursday and had just two runs through seven innings last night, before exploding for eight runs in an eighth-inning rally. St. Louis has now gone 1-3 on its six-game road trip, scoring a total of four runs in the defeats. Colorado's 32-18 record leads the NL West while the Cards' 23-22 record has them close (one game back of the first-place Cubs) in the tightly-contested NL Central (top-four teams are within two games of each other). The pitching matchup: Adam Wainwright (4-3 & 4.81 ERA) gets the start for St. Louis up against Colorado's Kyle Freeland (5-2 & 3.31 ERA). The veteran Wainwright started slowly in 2017 but takes the mound having won four consecutive decisions. The 35-year-old has been superb in his last two outings, winning both while allowing one run on nine hits over 13 1/3 innings. More to the point in this game, Wainwright has dominated the Rockies throughout his career, going 9-1 (3-0 at Coors Field) with one shutout and a 1.70 ERA in 10 starts and four relief appearances. Freeland's a rookie who has allowed three ERs or fewer in each of his last seven starts, posting a 4-1 record in that span (Rockies are 6-1). This marks his first career start against the Cards. The pick: In somewhat of a surprise, Colorado has been better on the road (18-8) than here at Coors (14-10) in 2017. In fact, both of Freeland's losses this season have come at home, where the rookie has posted a 3.80 ERA as opposed to a 2.89 mark on the road. Getting back to Wainwright, he's 8-1 with a 1.81 ERA in his 10 career starts against the Rockies (Cards are 8-2) and comes in pitching very well. I'm backing the vet over the rookie in this one and will make the Cards a 10* play. |
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05-27-17 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The Arizona Diamondbacks lost 93 games in 2016 but enter this weekend as MLB's hottest team, as Friday night's 4-2 win in 10 innings at Milwaukee gives them 10 wins in their last 11 games. Arizona is now 31-19 overall, just one game back of first-place Colorado in the NL West after last night's dramatic win. The loss had to be particularly painful for the Brewers, who lost a 2-1 lead with two outs in the ninth inning on a HR by Arizona catcher Chris Iannetta, then lost in the 10th. Milwaukee was shut out 4-0 on Thursday by Arizona and has now managed just two runs on 11 hits in losing the first two games of this series. The Brewers, who placed Ryan Braun (calf) on the 10-day disabled list Friday, enter Saturday's contest on a season-high five-game slide, leaving them 25-23 but still just a half-game back of the first-place Cubs in the NL Central. The pitching matchup: Zack Greinke (6-2 & 2.82 ERA) takes the mound for Arizona and will be opposed by Milwaukee's Chase Anderson (2-1 & 4.25 ERA). Greinke has won four straight starts (2.37 ERA) and Miller Park holds a special place in his heart. He's won 16 of 18 career decisions at Miller Park, including an 11-0 mark in 2011 while a member of the Brewers. However, while he has not allowed an earned run in his last 12 2/3 innings against Milwaukee, he's just 1-2 with a 3.57 ERA over four career starts against the Brewers (teams are 1-3). Anderson has completed as many as five innings just once in four May starts, giving up six runs in four innings last Sunday at Wrigley Field in Chicago, while serving up three HRs to the Cubs in a 13-6 loss. The one-time D'back is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA in two starts against his former team (1-1). The pick: Anderson posted a 1.12 ERA through his first four outings of 2017 but he's got a 7.30 mark in his last five starts, after allowing a season-high six ERs in his last outing Sunday against the Cubs. He faces an Arizona lineup that's averaging 5.73 RPG in winning 10 of 11, so it will be tough to turn around his woes in this one. But Greinke comes in red-hot plus he 'loves' Miller Park. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-27-17 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -104 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
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05-26-17 | Cubs v. Dodgers -132 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
analysis by 12 pm et |
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05-25-17 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers UNDER 9 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Seemingly, the Diamondbacks have put last year's 93-loss season behind them, as red-hot Arizona looks for its ninth victory in 10 games while attempting to hand Milwaukee its first four-game losing streak of the season. Arizona opens a four-game series in Milwaukee on Thursday on the heels of sweeping a three-game home series over the White Sox with Wednesday's 8-6 win. The D'backs own MLB's best home record (21-8) but aare more modest 8-11 on the road. Meanwhile, the Brewers have lost three in a row, after having won 10 of 12 contests before their slide. Milwaukee's 25-21 record has them a half-game up on both the Cards and Cubs in the NL Central but the Brewers are under .500 (12-13) here at Miller Park. |
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05-25-17 | Mariners v. Nationals -138 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -138 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mariners and Nationals will wrap up a three-game IL series with this 12:05 ET start in Washington. The game time has been moved up due to rain in the forecast and the Mariners might welcome a rain out, as they have never won a game in the nation's capital. Washington's 5-1 victory Wednesday followed Tuesday 10-1 win and improved the Nationals' record in the all-time series to 13-1, including a perfect 8-0 at Nationals Park. The Tuesday and Wednesday results leave Seattle with five consecutive one-run performances and a 7-18 road record. The Nats are 28-17 overall, including 14-7 at home. |
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05-24-17 | Reds v. Indians -171 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -171 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: Lisalverto Bonilla (0-2 & 6.38 ERA) will take the mound for the Reds and Trevor Bauer (4-4 & 6.65 ERA) for the Indians. Bonilla had an awful relief appearance back in April and then last Friday, sustained his second straight losing start loss in a row when he ran into trouble in the sixth inning at home vs. the Rockies, allowing four runs (including a three-run HR) as part of Colorado's eventual eight-run inning. In three 2017 appearances (two starts), he allowed 17 hits (four HRs) and 13 ERs in 18 1/3 innings, as opponents have batted .342 against him. Bauer recorded his second consecutive victory after allowing three runs and striking out a season-high nine in 5 2/3 innings at Houston on Friday in a 5-3 win. Bauer owns a 1-2 career mark with a 5.52 ERA against the Reds. The pick: The Indians' starting rotation has gotten off to a slow start this season and Bauer, with his 6.65 ERA has been part of the problem. However, he has posted back-to-back wins (has allowed three ERs in each outing) and the Indians have dominated the Reds as of late (won seven of last eight meetings). What's more, Bauer does own a career 7-3 interleague record with a 2.74 ERA in 16 appearances, including 15 starts. See above for a reminder of just how bad Cincy's Bonilla has been in his limited action of 2017 and it's no surprise I'm making Cleveland an 8* play in this one. |
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05-24-17 | Blue Jays -110 v. Brewers | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Blue Jays edged the Brewers 4-3 on Tuesday and will conclude this two-game IL series, as well as a seven-game road trip, with this Wednesday afternoon game at Miller Park. Toronto lost three of its first four on the trip but avoided a sweep in Baltimore by winning 3-1 on Sunday, They now have a chance to finish 4-3 on the trip. Milwaukee kicked off a six-game homestand with its second straight loss after winning four in a row. The Brewers had won three straight and six of their previous seven at home prior to Tuesday. |
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05-23-17 | Cardinals v. Dodgers OVER 7 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The 22-19 St. Louis Cardinals and the 26-19 Los Angeles Dodgers were both off on Monday and get together at Dodger Stadium Tuesday night for the opener of a three-game series. The Cardinals snapped a four-game losing slide with an 8-3 victory over San Francisco on Sunday. The Dodgers won 6-3 at home over the Marlins on Sunday and have followed a three-game skid of their own by winning four of their last five. St. Louis opens a six-game road trip with this game, while the Dodgers continue a 10-game homestand (the Cubs visit over the weekend). The pitching matchup: Lance Lynn (4-2 & 2.78 ERA) goes for the Cards and Clayton Kershaw (7-2 & 2.15 ERA) for the Dodgers. Lynn gave up two HRs for the second straight start last Tuesday and took his first loss since April 11 with a 6-3 setback versus Boston. However, he did work at least six innings for the fifth time in his last six outings, with St. Louis winning all but one of those starts. Lynn owns a 4-1 career mark in eight starts versus the Dodgers (4.04 ERA / Cards are 5-3). Kershaw has won three CY Young awards and is off a brilliant performance in his last outing on Wednesday, scattering three hits over seven scoreless innings in a 6-1 victory at San Francisco. Kershaw has fared well against St. Louis in the regular season, posting a 6-5 career mark with a 3.18 ERA in 15 outings, as opposed to an 0-4 record in the playoffs. The pick: The over/under number is always tantalizingly low in a Kershaw start and note that Lynn has allowed two HRs in each of his last two outings. He'll face an LA lineup which has averaged 5.74 RPG in going 16-7 at home and Kershaw could easily have his hands full with a St. Louis team which is 10-6 on the road (averaging 5.44 RPG), after erupting for 43 runs en route to back-to-back three-game sweeps at Atlanta and Miami from May 5-10. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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05-23-17 | Tigers v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Astros got swept in a three-game home series by the Indians over the weekend but still opened the new week with MLB's best record. Four Houston pitchers combined on a one-hitter in Monday's 1-0 victory over the Tigers, as Houston became the first team in the majors to reach 30 wins while also establishing the best 45-game start (30-15) in franchise history. Detroit has now dropped five of its last eight games to fall under .500 at 21-22. Monday's setback occurred in the opener of the team's 11-game road trip. Â The pitching matchup: Jordan Zimmermann (4-2 & 6.25 ERA) gets the nod for Detroit and Lance McCullers (4-1 & 2.65). Zimmermann is hoping to begin a turnaround to a season in which he has given up four or more runs in six of his first eight starts. Maybe it will start against Houston, as Zimmermann is 2-2 with a 2.93 ERA in five career starts against the Astros (teams are 3-2). McCullers scattered three hits over six scoreless innings to defeat 3-0 Miami in his last outing (Wednesday). That makes him the the first Houston pitcher to work at least six innings without allowing an earned run in three consecutive starts since Roy Oswalt did it back in 2008. McCullers won his lone career start against Detroit in 2015, when he gave up two runs on six hits in six innings (3.00 ERA).Â
The pick: McCullers is off to an excellent start in 2017 and here at home, owns a 2.08 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in four starts (he's 2-0 and the team 4-0!). As for Zimmermann, he last faced Houston on April 30, 2014, allowing seven hits and one walk with seven strikeouts over 6 1/3 shutout innings. He's pitched reasonably well at Minute Maid Park with a 3.42 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings over four career starts there. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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05-23-17 | Padres v. Mets -140 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mets were pounded 12-5 on Sunday by the Angels, suffering their eighth loss in their last 10 outings to fall to 18-24. They get set to open a three-game home series Tuesday against San Diego. The Padres won 5-1 on Sunday but it was only the team's third win in its last 13 encounters, as the Padres come into this series with a MLB-worst 16-30 record (minus-$1160 moneyline mark ranks second-worst). The set-up: Jhoulys Chacin (4-3 & 4.61 ERA) gets the ball for the Padres and Matt Harvey (2-3 & 5.56 ERA) for the Mets. Chacin is off an excellent start, allowing one run on just two hits and striking out eight in seven innings versus Milwaukee last Wednesday. He took a no-decision in the Brewers' 3-1 win at San Diego. Chacin has been brutal on the road in 2017, as he owns a bloated 8.77 ERA while permitting hitters to bat .330 against him. Chacin's road troubles have extended to Citi Field, where he has posted a 1-2 career record with a 5.30 ERA. He's 1-4 with a 4.98 ERA in six career starts against the Mets (teams are 2-4). Matt Harvey owns an 0-3 mark and a 6.55 ERA in his last six starts. He allowed three runs on six hits in 5 1/3 innings of a no-decision at Arizona, agme the D'backs won 5-4 in 11 innings. Harvey has as many walks (21) as strikeouts in his last six, while salso urrendering eight HRs in his last five contests. Harvey has posted a 2-1 record with a solid 3.38 ERA in four career starts against San Diego (Mets are 2-2), with a season-best 10-strikeout performance over six innings in a 4-3 win on May 8, 2016. The pick: Patience is starting run thin with Harvey but he owns decent numbers against the Padres and Chacin has been a awful pitcher on the road in 2017, making the Mets an 8* play. |
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05-22-17 | White Sox v. Diamondbacks -174 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The White Sox opened their 10-game road trip with four straight losses, including the first of a four-game series in Seattle on Thursday. However, Chicago took the final three games of its series in Seattle, capping the successful weekend with Sunday's 8-1 win. Chicago allowed a total of three runs from Friday through Sunday and open a three-game interleague series tonight in Arizona against the Diamondbacks. Arizona won Friday and Saturday at San Diego (scored a total of 19 runs) but saw its five-game winning streak snapped with Sunday's 5-1 loss. The pitching matchup: Miguel Gonzalez (3-4 & 4.29 ERA) will start for Chicago and Zack Greinke (5-2 & 3.09 ERA) for Arizona. Gonzalez lost his fourth consecutive start this past Wednesday in Anaheim against the Angels. He allowed five runs on six hits and issued a season-high five walks over 5 2/3 innings. He has now surrendered five or more runs three times during his skid, while registering more than two strikeouts just once. Gonzalez settled for a no-decision in his only career outing against Arizona in 2013 while with Baltimore, despite allowing only two runs over seven Innings (2.57 ERA but his team lost). Greinke was not sharp against the New York Mets on Tuesday but came away with his fourth straight win, despite giving up four runs on five hits in 6 2/3 innings. It marked only the third time nine starts this season that he has allowed more than three runs. However, Grienke has not pitched well against Chicago during his career, going 7-10 with a 4.14 ERA in 23 starts (team is 10-13) and three relief appearances. The pick: Gonzalez has given up 34 hits and 19 runs (18 earned) in his past four starts covering 23 1/3 innings (6.94 ERA). He is 1-3 with a 4.88 ERA in five road starts in 2017 (team is 2-3) with a 1.60 WHIP. In contrast, Greinke is 4-0 in six home starts (team is 5-1), posting a 2.82 ERA and 0.71 WHIP. Make Arizona an 8* play. |
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05-22-17 | Angels v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: The LA Angels will visit the Tampa Rays on Monday to open a four-game series, with both teams sporting identical 23-23 records.The Rays saw their four-game winning steak snapped with a 3-2 loss to New York on Sunday but have won their last three series after taking two of three from the Yankees over the weekend. Meanwhile the Angels have captured five of their last seven games, including a 12-5 road victory over the New York Mets on Sunday in which they belted four HR. Mike Trout, who is batting .350 on the season, hit one of the LA's homers and added a double as he has now reached base in 38 of the 40 games in which he has played this year. However, Albert Pujols (right hamstring) has missed three straight contests and is listed day-to-day. The pitching matchup: JC Ramirez (3-3 & 3.97 ERA) gets the ball for LA and Jake Odorizzi (3-2 & 3.16 ERA) for the Rays. Ramirez has completed at least five innings in all seven starts this season and limited opponents to three or fewer runs five times. However, has managed to record just one victory in that five-game span, although the Angels are 4-1 in those games. Ramirez opened the season 2-0 in three relief stints but will now make an eighth straight start. He has worked two scoreless innings of relief versus the Rays in his career. Odorizzi allowed four runs on seven hits over six innings his last time out at Cleveland (won ), after allowing one run in each of his previous three starts. He has held opponents to a .195 batting average and has a 0.89 WHIP this season but needs to cut down on the long balls, having surrendered seven HRs in seven outings. While it's a small sample size, Odorizzi is 0-3 with a 6.98 ERA against the Angels in four career starts (team is 1-3). The pick: Despite LA's 12-run outburst at Citi Field on Sunday, the Angels are averaging only 3.57 RPG in 23 road games this season (just 8-15). Odorizzi's LT record against LA is poor but his 2017 WHIP and opponents BA (see above for both numbers) are impressive. Likewise, Ramirez has found a home as a starter for LA. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-21-17 | Rangers v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 105 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tigers ended the Rangers' 10-game winning streak. Miguel Cabrera returned to the lineup from a three-game injury absence and homered, one of four hit by Detroit. J.D. Martinez continued his torrid pace by launching his sixth HR in eight contests since making his season debut on May 12. The Tigers will be starting an 11-game road trip on Monday (it begins with four against major league-best Houston) but first must solve a pitcher that has owned them. The pitching matchup: Yu Darvish (4-2 & 2.76 ERA) takes the mound for Texas up against Detroit's Matthew Boyd (2-3 & 5.18 ERA). Darvish has won all six career starts against Detroit, although his ERA is not "lights out" (3.46). However, he enters on a five-start unbeaten streak, coming off permitting just one run on four hits over seven innings to beat Philadelphia 5-1 last Tuesday. He's 3-0 in his five-game unbeaten streak with Texas going 5-0 in those games. Boyd will need to bounce back from a dreadful performance against Baltimore last Tuesday, when he tied a season low with 2 1/3 innings pitched, getting battered for seven runs on eight hits, as the Tigers lost 13-11 in 13 innings. However, that awful outing was preceded by a string of three straight quality starts, although the Tigers lost all three of them. He is 1-3 with a 5.24 ERA in four career starts against the Rangers. The pick: Let's give Boyd a 'mulligan" for his last outing and expect that the ESPN cameras will motivate him. As noted above, Darvish needs no extra motivation when pitching against the Tigers (he has to be full of confidence) plus his current run of five starts in which Texas has won all five (Darvish owns a 2.38 ERA), surely won't hurt that confidence. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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05-21-17 | Giants +144 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: All of a sudden, the Giants are getting timely hits and starting to win games. San Francisco used a four-run ninth inning against the New York Mets back on May 10th to post its first road victory when trailing in the 9th inning in over a year. After a 5-2 homestand, the Giants then notched a second 9th-inning comeback win in the series opener on Friday against the Cards, scoring all six of their runs after the sixth inning. Last night, Christian Arroyo's two-run double in the 13th broke a scoreless tie in Saturday's 3-1 triumph. San Francisco will go for a three-game sweep in St. Louis today, eyeing its eighth win in nine tries (after a 12-24 start to 2017). St. Louis has now dropped a season-high four straight (including two in 13 innings), to fall to 21-19, 2 1/2 games back of the Brewers in the NL Central. The Cardinals' starting pitching has yet to give up a run over 15 innings in this series, but the bullpen has been pounded for nine runs (eight earned) in just seven innings and during the team's four-game slide, owns a 6.75 ERA. The pitching matchup: Matt Cain (3-1 & 4.04 ERA) will be on the mound for the Giants and Adam Wainwright (3-3 & 5.31 ERA) for the Cards. Cain became the 12th pitcher in club history to reach 2,000 career innings Monday, getting his first win since April 24 after throwing a season-high 112 pitches while permitting one run and five hits over 6 2/3 innings versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (Giants won 8-4). The three-time All-Star is showing signs of regaining some of his past form, having allowed fewer than three ERs in six of his last seven starts. However, Cain has struggled more versus the Cardinals than any other NL team over his career, going 2-5 with a 6.19 ERA in 12 games (11 starts). Wainwright proved to be effectively wild last Sunday in a victory against the Chicago Cubs, yielding only four hits while walking a season-high four across seven scoreless inning. It's been a struggle for Wainwright in 2017, as Sunday's outing marked only the second time this year that he has worked at least six innings. Wainwright is 5-7 with a 3.27 ERA in 14 appearances (12 starts) against the Giants. The pick: I like what I'm seeing from the Giants recently and as noted above, Cain is showing real signs of once again being a solid starter. Go with the flow, the Giants are surging and the Cards are stumbling and bumbling. Make San Francisco an 8* play. |
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05-21-17 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: CC Sabathia (3-2 & 4.93 ERA) takes the mound for New York up against Tampa's Chris Archer (3-2 & 3.70 ERA). Sabathia allowed just five hits over 6 2/3 scoreless innings in a 7-1 victory at Kansas City last Tuesday. It was a welcome relief for the veteran who had given up 22 runs on 30 hits over 20 2/3 innings in his previous four outings. CC is very familiar with the Rays, having gone 15-14 (3.76 ERA) in 42 career starts against them (teams are 22-20). Archer's off a 'nightmare' 2016 season but started well in 2017. However, he's managed just one victory over his last six starts. He had put together three quality starts but then got pounded for seven runs (six earned) over five innings at Cleveland last Monday in a in an 8-7 loss. He's is 6-5 with a 2.63 ERA in 14 career starts against the Yankees (Rays are 8-6). The pick: Archer's troubles have come on the road in 2017, as the team is 4-1 in his home starts, with Archer posting a 2.94 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. As for CC, while he owns a bloated 7.41 ERA at Yankee Stadium, his road ERA is a respectable 3.45. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-20-17 | White Sox v. Mariners -165 | Top | 16-1 | Loss | -165 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Chicago began its 10-game road trip by getting swept in a three-game set in Anaheim by the Angels and then lost the series opener 5-4 in Seattle on Thursday to the Mariners. That made it seven straight road losses for the White Sox before Melky Cabrera delivered a two-out RBI double in the 10th while Jose Quintana and David Robertson combined on a one-hitter for the White Sox, as Chicago edged Seattle last night 2-1 in 10 innings. The series continues Saturday, with Friday's loss denying the Mariners a three-game winning streak and dropped them to 3-2 on their current seven-game homestand. The pitching matchup: Mike Pelfrey (0-4 & 5.70 ERA) gets the ball for Chicago and Seattle will give the nod to Yovani Gallardo (2-3 & 4.53 ERA). This is Pelfrey's 12th big league season but first with the White Sox. He's made five starts in 2017 but remains in search of his first win with Chicago. He has given up three or more runs in each of his five 2017 starts (White Sox are 1-4) and has yet to last six innings, working a season-high 5 1/3 in a loss at Kansas City on May 3. Pelfrey has yet to defeat Seattle in his career, although it's a small sample size with three starts (he's 0-1 with a 4.42 ERA and his teams are 1-2). Gallardo snapped a three-start winless streak Monday with a 6-5 win over Oakland in which he allowed three runs over 6 1/3 innings. It matched his longest outing of the season, as he also worked 6 1/3 innings at Oakland back on April 23. Gallardo has been outstanding against Chicago in three career starts (again, a small sample size), allowing three runs (just two earned) over 17 innings while posting a 1-0 record (1.06 ERA / teams are 2-1). The pick: Tonight's two starters have combined for 515 career major-league starts and 175 victories, although Gallardo has the better numbers. He's 110-86 with a 3.81 ERA versus Pelfrey's 65-95 record and 4.58 ERA. Not sure any of that matters too much here and neither has pitched very well so far in 2017. As noted, last night's 2-1 win by Chicago snapped its seven-game road losing streak so it would hardly be a surprise for the White Sox to lose here. Meanwhile, Seattle has overcome a 2-8 start to the current season by going 18-15 since, giving me every reason to think the Mariners can best a pitcher (Pelfrey) who owns a 5.70 ERA and has yet to complete six innings in any of his five starts this season. Make Seattle an 8* play. |
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05-20-17 | Giants v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cardinals' bullpen allowed six runs over the final three innings of Friday's 6-5 loss to the Giants, spoiling six scoreless innings by St. Louis starter Michael Wacha, not to mention and a three-run HR in the seventh by Dexter Fowler. This three-game series continues Saturday night, with the Cards looking to snap a season high-tying three-game losing streak. As for the Giants, going into the ninth inning of a May 10 game at the New York Mets, the Giants were trailing 3-2 and hadn't rallied for a road win when trailing in the ninth since 2015. However, they scored four runs in the ninth inning at New York to beat the Mets 6-5 that game. They had been back in San Francisco until last night (went 5-2) but after erasing a 5-4 deficit in the ninth Friday night at St. Louis, now own consecutive 9th-inning comeback wins on the road.f However, let's not get too carried away, as the Giants are only 7-15 on the road in 2017. The pitching matchup: Jeff Samardzija (1-5 & 5.26 ERA) will take the mound for the Giants and Carlos Martinez (3-3 & 3.88 ERA) for the Cards. Samardzija is once again failing to live up to his supposed potential. In fact, his first win of the 2017 came just this past Sunday at home against Cincinnati, which he held to three runs in 6 2/3 innings. Samardzija may have 28 strikeouts with no walks over his last three appearances but he owns just a single win in eight starts! He is 3-3 with a 4.15 ERA in 10 career starts against the Cards (teams are 6-4). Martinez is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA in three starts this month after leading his team past the Chicago Cubs last Saturday. He allowed three runs in 6 2/3 innings against the defending champs, while striking out seven for the second consecutive start. He's 2-0 with 2.37 ERA in two career starts against the Giants. The pick: Samardzija owns a 6.66 ERA on the road in 2017 (four starts) but there's also that 47-8 KW ratio over his last six starts to consider. Yes, the Giants have hit better lately (have averaged 5.0 runs the last five games) but they still rank 29th in scoring (3.44 per), 27th in team BA (.234) and 30th in OPS (.646). As for the Cards, they are averaging a very modest 3.91 RPG in going 11-12 at home. The Under is a 10* play. |
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05-20-17 | Indians +115 v. Astros | Top | 3-0 | Win | 115 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Indians took the opener of this three-game series last night, 5-3. Jason Kipnis hit his third HR and knocked in his seventh run during a five-game hitting streak, as he's beginning to find some rhythm at the plate after starting the season on the DL with a shoulder injury. The Astros (29-13) coughed up an early two-run lead Friday, as they saw their four-game winning streak come to an end. However, it was just Houston's second loss in its last 11 games, and at 29-13, the Astros still own MLB's best record. The Indians are defending AL champs but check in at a modest 21-19, although they are only one game out of first in the AL Central. |
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05-19-17 | Royals v. Twins OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The 17-23 Kansas City Royals will be in Minnesota tonight for the opener of a three-game series with the 20-17 Twins. This series opens a 10-game road trip for the Royals, who are winless in five games against the Twins this season. Minnesota halted a three-game slide with a 2-0 victory over Colorado in the second game of Thursday's doubleheader but the Twins have scored just 14 runs in their last six contests. |
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05-19-17 | Nationals -152 v. Braves | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -152 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nationals and Braves meet in Atlanta this weekend for a three-game series between the first and second place teams in the NL East. While that is the case, it's more than just a footnote that the 25-15 Nats own an eight-game lead over the 16-22 Braves. Washington comes in with losses in five of their last six road contests but the Nats' first visit to the Braves' new ballpark (April 18-20) resulted in a three-game sweep at SunTrust Park for Washington. The first-place Nationals have lost six of their last 10 overall, while the Braves had won three in a row and five of six before getting 'beat up' 9-0 in the finale of a heated interleague series with Toronto on Thursday. The pitching matchup: Lefty Gio Gonzalez (3-1 & 2.47 ERA) gets the nod for the Nats up against the Braves' knuckleballer, R.A. Dickey (3-3 & 4.22 ERA). Gonzalez is off a solid start last Sunday but saw his winless streak extend to three outings despite allowing just one run on four hits in 6 2/3 innings of a no-decision versus Philadelphia. Gonzalez has allowed six HRs in his last four starts and has struggled with his control, issuing 23 walks in his last six. He struggled "big time" against Atlanta last season (7.11 ERA in four starts) and is 4-9 with a 5.06 ERA in 17 career starts against them (teams are 6-11). Dickey's mark against the Nationals isn't too much better, as he permitted three runs in seven innings to take the loss on April 20 and fell to 4-8 with a 3.82 ERA in his career versus Washington over 15 starts (teams are 5-10). Dickey won his next two starts after that home loss to the Nats but lost his last time out, despite allowing just three runs on five hits in seven innings at Miami last Sunday. His problem lately has been keeping the ball in th park, as he's given up nine HRs in his last six starts. The park: Neither starter owns a good LT mark against their respective opponent in this one but the Nats have won 18 of their last 22 meetings with the Braves and are 39-13 against the Atlanta since the middle of the 2014 season. Throw in the fact that Atlanta's best hitter, Freddie Freeman (.341 BA, while leading the National League with 14 HRs), will be sidelined 10 weeks with a non-displaced left wrist fracture, and what's not to like about Washington in this game? Make the Nats an 8* play. |
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05-18-17 | Blue Jays v. Braves OVER 8 | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Toronto opened the week having won seven of eight games and after a 2-11 start to 2017, sat at 17-21. The Blue Jays had to be confident as the new week began with a four-game, home-and-home IL series with the Atlanta Braves. Atlanta had lost 93 games in 2016 and opened the week at 13-21, having gone 7-15 since a 6-6 start. However, the Braves have won three consecutive games against the Blue Jays heading into Thursday’s finale of the series at SunTrust Park. The bad news for Atlanta is, first baseman Freddie Freeman left Wednesday’s 8-4 victory when he was hit by a pitch on the left wrist. Freeman, who started the day leading the National League in HRs while ranking in the top-10 in average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. He is scheduled to undergo further testing Thursday. It's been a contentious series, as Toronto pitchers have hit seven Atlanta hitters in the past three games while allowing 27 runs during that stretch. It's led to two bench-clearing incidents in Wednesday's contest. The pitching matchup: Marcus Stroman (3-2 & 3.33 ERA) will take the mound for Toronto and Julio Teheran (3-3 & 4.08 ERA) will toe the rubber for Atlanta. Stroman has posted a 2.87 ERA over his last five starts, holding opponents to two runs or less four times in that span. Stroman pitched two complete games in his first four starts of 2017 but makes his first career appearance against Atlanta. Teheran won 3-1 at Miami last Saturday, allowing three hits with four strikeouts across six scoreless innings. He may be Atlanta's ace but in three career starts against Toronto (0-0 record with team going 2-1), he's posted a 6.60 ERA with five HRs allowed over 15 innings. The pick: The Blue Jays pitching staff has allowed 27 runs in the first three games of this series and while Stroman owns a 2.87 ERA over his last five starts, he's allowed 33 hits in 31 1/3 innings during those starts. That kind of ratio tends to catch up with a pitcher. As for Teheran, he not only owns that ugly 6.60 ERA in three career outings vs. Toronto, but before his strong outing last Saturday, he had surrendered 19 ERs over 21 1/3 innings in his four previous starts, going 1-3 with an 8.02 ERA and five HRs allowed. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-18-17 | Reds +1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: The Chicago Cubs likely knew that after winning the team's first World Series in 2017, after a 108-year drought, that repeating would be no walk in the park. However, the Cubs surely didn't expect to be only 20-19 as they got set to play their 40th game of a 162-game schedule. The Cubs have overpowered the Reds in the first two games of this series, outscoring them 16-10 to improve to 4-1 against their National League Central rivals this season. The Reds have now lost five in a row to fall below .500 (19-20) and will try to avoid a sweep this afternoon against the Cubs, who hope to complete their first series sweep of the 2017 season. |
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05-17-17 | White Sox v. Angels -157 | Top | 8-12 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: The Angels blew a three-run lead in the ninth inning Tuesday and fell behind in the 11th before posting a 7-6 victory, when Pujols delivered a run-scoring single to win it in the bottom of the 11th. The 21-21 Angels now look to complete a three-game home sweep over the 17-20 White Sox and extend their overall winning streak to four contests. The White Sox have opened a 10-game road trip 0-2 and have dropped five straight away from home to fall to 9-12 on the season on the road. The pick: The White Sox have lost eight of their last 10 contests and 10 of 14 this month, after going 13-10 in April. The Angels have won four of five while averaging 5.20 runs. Make LA an 8* play. |
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05-17-17 | Mets v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 107 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mets have lost the first two of this three-game series in Arizona against the Diamondbacks, 7-3 and 5-4. They have now lost six straight, while allowing opponents to average 7.8 runs during the team's slide. In contrast, the Diamondbacks have won five of their last seven and have upped their home record in 2017 to an impressive 17-8. That's quite an improvement for a team which was a woeful 33-48 at home in 2016, while going 69-93 overall, in finishing 22 games back of the division-winning Dodgers in the NL West. |
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05-16-17 | Astros v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 12-2 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The Astros opened this four-game, home-and-home IL series with the Miami Marlins by taking Monday's contest, 7-2. Yuli Gurriel led the way with a grand slam, Houston's third in May, which sets a franchise record for one month. The 27-12 Astros own MLB's best record, are now 13-6 on the road and have won each of their three interleague games. Meanwhile, the Marlins are headed in the opposite direction. After opening the season at 10-8, the Marlins have gone 4-15 since, and have not won consecutive games since April 22-23. Houston owns an eight-game lead in the AL West, while Miami occupies the basement in the NL East at 14-23. The Marlins are already 10 games back of the Nationals in the division and the team's winning percentage of .378 is better than only San Diego, which is 15-25 (.375). The pitching matchup: Dallas Keuchel (6-0 & 1.69 ERA) takes the mound for Houston and Tom Koehler (1-1 & 5.60 ERA) for Miami. Keuchel will try to become MLB's first seven-game winner, after he beat the Yankees 3-2 last Thursday. It was his shortest outing of the year (aix innings) but he tied a season high with nine strikeouts and walked only one. He is tied for the MLB lead in innings pitched (58 2/3) and his ERA is third overall among qualified hurlers. The 2015 American League Cy Young Award winner allowed two unearned runs over seven innings in his only previous start against Miami, a game in which he took the loss. Koehler has finished as many as six innings only twice in his first seven starts of 2017 and has fallen shy of that mark three straight times, including a no-decision against St. Louis on Wednesday in which he gave up four runs in 5 1/3 innings. He threw a season-high 99 pitches in that outing but for the first time in 2017, didn't allow a HR. He has won his only prior start against the Astros, although his ERA in that game was 5.40! The pick: Houston is 15 games over .500 for the first time since the end of the 2005 season (89-73) and Keuchel has regained his 2015 Cy Young form. As noted above, the Marlins are in a 4-15 funk which includes a 1-6 mark on their current homestand,. Miami has managed just six runs in its last three games, going 2 of 21 (.095) with RISP. I see little reason to think that the Marlins will 'touch' Keuchel. The Under is a 10* play. |
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05-16-17 | Nationals -160 v. Pirates | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pirates lost six games in a row from May 7th through the 12th, scoring a total of only 13 runs during that skid. However, the team won 4-3 on Saturday and 6-4 (10 inn.) on Sunday at Arizona, before getting a break with no game scheduled on Monday. The Pirates had played for 17 consecutive days, so Monday's off day was a welcome relief, especially wit thhe team opening a three-game series versus the visiting Washington Nationals on Tuesday. The Nats own an NL-best 24-13 record and are 12-6 on the road, where Bryce Harper, he of the new one-year deal of $21.625 million, is batting a blistering .434 with six HRs and 16 RBI in away games in 2017! |
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05-16-17 | Braves v. Blue Jays -140 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -140 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: Jaime Garcia (1-2 & 4.33 ERA) takes the hill for the Braves and Marco Estrada (2-2 & 3.12 ERA) for the Blue Jays. Garcia's had control issues lately (five walks in each of his last two starts) but he's kept Atlanta in his starts this season, with four of the six being decided by one or two runs (Braves are 3-3 in his starts). He gave up four runs on six hits over six innings in losing at the Astros 4-2 last Wednesday but that snapped a string of three consecutive starts with two runs or less allowed. Garcia has posted a 1.80 ERA while going 2-1 in three career starts against Toronto. Estrada has helped the Blue Jays recover from a rotten start to the season (Jays lost nine of 11 to begin 2017!), allowing two ERs or less in five of his past six starts (team is 4-2). He won for the second time in three starts in May on Thursday against Seattle, striking out eight while surrendering two runs on four hits in six innings. He's pitched well against Atlanta in his career, going 4-1 with a 2.95 ERA in 11 career appearances (five starts). The pick: Both teams are off to slow starts in 2017 but the Braves are a team coming off a 93-loss season in 2016, while the Blue Jays have won 89 and 93 games the last two years, reaching the ALCS in both 2015 and 2016. Toronto ha the edge here with Estrada, who has limited opposing hitters to a .227 batting average in 2017. Make Toronto an 8* play. |
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05-15-17 | Braves v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: Kevin Pillar’s walk-off homer gave the Blue Jays a 3-2 win on Sunday over Seattle, Toronto's fifth victory in a row and seventh in eight games. Toronto had played in both the 2015 and 2016 ALCS but lost 11 of 13 to open the 2017 season. However, the Blue Jays are now 15-10 since that ugly start and open this two-game interleague home series against the Atlanta Braves with a 17-21 mark. Atlanta was not able to complete a three-game sweep in Miami on Sunday, falling 3-1. The Braves sit at 13-21 (already 9 1/2 games back of the Nats in the NL East) and only the 14-25 Gianst own a worse winning percentage in MLB. The pitching matchup: Bartolo Colon (1-4 & 7.22 ERA) gets the start for Atlanta, opposed by Toronto's Mike Bolsinger (0-1 & 3.18 ERA). Atlanta signed Colon as a free agent and he's been a big disappointment. He gave up five first-inning runs and eight overall in 5 2/3 innings Tuesday at Houston, extending a stretch during which he has surrendered 36 hits and an OPS of 1.099. His lone win this season came when he allowed just one hit in seven innings against San Diego back on April 16. However, he has yielded seven or more hits in each of his four starts since (36 hits & 23 ERs in 21 IP). Colon has posted a 10-6 record and 4.25 ERA in 26 career starts against Toronto (teams are 15-11). Bolsinger makes his second start of the season after losing his debut against Cleveland on Tuesday, when he gave up two runs on three hits and four walks in 5 2/3 innings. He is 8-17 with a 4.57 ERA in 38 games over four major-league seasons but had posted a 1.46 ERA in four starts for Triple-A Buffalo before joining Toronto. Bolsinger has made two career starts against Atlanta as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers, going 1-1 with a4.22 ERA. The pick: Since earning his lone win of 2017 (4/16), Colon owns a 9.55 ERA in four starts. As for Bolsinger, he's nothing more than a journeyman. The play here is a 10* on the Over. |
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05-15-17 | Rays v. Indians -150 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Indians snapped a three-game slide with an 8-3 win on Sunday and avoided a three-game home sweep at the hands of the Minnesota Twins. The Indians finally found their offense, after scoring just one run in dropping the first two games of that series. The Tampa Bay Rays had scored a modest eight runs in losing two of their previous three but used a seven-run ninth inning on Sunday to pull away for an 11-2 win over the Red Sox. The Indians are 19-17 to open the current season while the Rays are 19-21, as the two teams meet in Cleveland for the opener of a three-game series on Monday. The pitching matchup: Chris Archer (3-1 & 3.04 ERA) will start for the Rays and the Indians will send Carlos Carrasco (4-2 & 1.86 ERA) to the mound. Archer has rebounded from an awful 2016 season and enters this contest having posted a quality start in each of his last three starts. He is coming off the best of the bunch after scattering five hits across eight scoreless innings while striking out 11 without a walk in a 12-1 win over Kansas City on Wednesday. The Rays are 5-3 (plus-$135) in Archer's eight starts in 2017, after going 10-23 and minus-$1553 last year. However, Archer is still looking for his first career win against Cleveland and enters Monday 0-5 with a 5.14 ERA in five career starts against the Indians. Carrasco has pitched very well in 2017 and will be looking for his third straight win and seventh consecutive quality start after striking out seven without walking a batter in seven scoreless innings at Toronto on Tuesday. Carrasco allowed one run and struck out eight in eight innings to earn a win in his lone start against Tampa Bay last season, giving him a 3-3 career record against the rays, while posting a 2.57 ERA. The pick: No way I'll back Archer with his career record against the Indians (see above), especially with Carrasco looking so solid. Yes, the Indians are a modest 7-8 at home so far in 2017 but they went 53-28 at home last season. Make Cleveland an 8* play. |
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05-14-17 | Philadelphia Phillies - Game #2 v. Washington Nationals - Game #2 -186 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
analysis by 11 am et |
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05-14-17 | Mets v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 9-11 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: Milwaukee placed Ryan Braun on the 10-day disabled list prior to Friday's game with the Mets but the Brewers haven't missed him, winning 7-4 on Friday (team had four HRs) and last night, used 16 hits (just one HR) and an eight-run 5th to win, 11-4! The 20-17 Brewers will attempt to complete a sweep of the visiting Mets and post their sixth victory in seven contests Sunday. The Mets are heading in the opposite direction, as after winning five of their previous six, the Mets have dropped three straight to find themselves three games under .500 (16-19). |
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05-14-17 | Twins v. Indians -148 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: The defending AL champs have lost the first two of this three-game home series with the Twins, managing just three hits on Friday and Saturday, while scoring only one run in the two contests. The Cleveland Indians will need to wake up their dormant offense, having now lost four of five to fall to 18-17. Meanwhile, the Twins, losers of 103 games in 2016, have now won four in a row and at 19-14, lead the Indians and Tigers by two games in the AL Central. Max Kepler belted a solo HR on Saturday as the Twins extended their streak of games with a homer to 14 straight, their longest run since 1988. The pitching matchup: Hector Santiago (4-1 & 2.76 ERA) takes the mound for Minnesota and Trevor Bauer (2-4 & 7.36 ERA) for Cleveland. Santiago is off to a strong starts in 2017 and enters unbeaten in his last five starts, allowing just 10 ERs in that span (3-0 & 2.90 ERA). The lefty has allowed just three HRs in 42 1/3 innings and right-handed hitters own only a .194 batting average against him overall. Santiago is 2-3 with a 4.77 ERA in 15 games (10 starts / teams are 3-7) against the Indians. In contrast to Santiago, Bauer has permitted at least four runs in five of his six starts this season. He does have 37 strikeouts in 33 innings in 2017 but teams are batting .285 against him overall, with seven HRs allowed. Bauer is 2-5 with a 5.09 ERA in 12 career starts against Minnesota (Indians are 4-8). The pick: Yes, the Twins have won 1-0 and 4-1 these first two games but the Twins aren't exactly 'lighting up' the scoreboard, either (just five runs on hits). Bauer has not been sharp so far (an understatement) but his best start of 2017 did come at Minnesota back on April 20, when he allowed two ERs on three hits over 6 1/3 innings of a 6-2 win. The Cleveland bats have quiet but the Indians have a veteran lineup that has been productive in the past. Speaking of the recent past, the Indians were 53-28 at home in 2016, while the Twins went 29-52 on the road. I say no sweep here by Minnesota, as Santiago's had problems with Cleveland (see above). Make Cleveland a 10* play. |
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05-13-17 | Padres v. White Sox +1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Padres posted a 6-3 victory in the opener of this three-game IL series in Chicago, winning for just the second time in nine games. In the process, they sent the White Sox to their sixth consecutive loss and ninth setback in their last 11 games.Chicago has been outscored 34-18 during its six-game slide and has given up at least six runs in seven of its last 11 contests. The series continues tonight in Chicago. Â The pitching matchup: Trevor Cahill (3-2 & 3.06 ERA) goes for San Diego and Dylan Covey (0-3 ERA 8.28 ERA) for Chicago. Cahill comes in having won each of his last three decisions, giving up just one earned run over 18 1/3 innings during those outings. He allowed just one hit over 5 1/3 scoreless frames against Oakland in his last turn but received an early hook due to a season-high five walks. Cahill is 1-3 with a 4.53 ERA in nine career appearances (eight starts / teams are 2-6) against the White Sox. Covey has been treated rudely in his first season in the majors and has allowed six runs in each of his last two starts. He has served up seven HRs in 25 innings, including three when the New York Yankees torched him for eight runs and 10 hits in five innings on April 19. Covey has a horrendous 1.92 WHIP and opposing batters are hitting .349 against him.Â
The pick: Maybe it's a stretch to side with the White Sox (and Covey) but note that Cahill has struggled on Chicago's South Side, with a 7.32 ERA in five games (four starts). I expect both starters to struggle but will side with Chicago's bullpen, whose 2.29 ERA is the second-best in all of MLB (San Diego's ranks 26th at 5.12). Take the 1 1/2 runs and make Chicago a 10* play. |
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05-13-17 | Reds v. Giants -132 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Buster Posey homered for the fourth time in his last five games to give the Giants a 3-2 victory on Friday in a game that lasted 17 innings and took five hours and 28 minutes to complete. Te Reds won by a similar 3-2 score in the opener of this four-game series on Thursday and the teams continue the series this afternoon at AT&T Park. The Reds have had excellent success here in San Francisco lately, having won 15 of their last 21 games at AT&T Park. Cincinnati is 19-16 on the season, while the Giants' win still leaves them with MLB's worst record at 13-24. San Francisco's offensive woes continued last night (3.24 RPG ranks 29th) but the Giants have received a welcome spark from the leadoff spot in the past two games from center fielder Denard Span, who has gone 7-for-12 with a home run and three RBI in his return from the disabled list. The pitching matchup: Lisalverto Bonilla (0-0 & 7.20 ERA) makes his first start of 2017 for the Reds and goes up against San Fran's Matt Moore (1-4 & 6.52 ERA). Bonilla hopes to be a steady replacement for struggling right-hander Rookie Davis, who was optioned to Triple-A Louisville after posting a 7.58 ERA in five starts. Bonilla pitched five innings of relief against the Cubs on April 22 before going back to Triple-A, where he went 0-2 with a 5.65 ERA in three starts. However, back in 2014 with Texas, he made five appearances, including three starts. He won all three of those starts, posting a 2.11 ERA. Moore’s 2017 struggles continued in his last outing, this past Monday against the Mets. He allowed three runs in 5 1/3 innings while throwing 108 pitches. Moore has allowed five or more runs in four of his seven starts this season with San Francisco going 1-6 and minus-$ 581 against the moneyline. He will be facing the Reds for the first time in his seven-year career (most spent with Tampa Bay in the AL). The pick :Both teams are hoping to see starting pitchers Bonilla and Moore work deep into Saturday’s contest, after they combined to use 13 relievers in Friday’s game. Bonilla has not made a major league start since 2014 and his 5.65 ERA in three starts at Triple-A hardly inspire confidence. Moore's overall stats look pretty ugly but on closer examination, while he owns a 10.50 ERA in three road starts this season, his ERA is 3.05 ERA in three outings at AT&T Park. Checking back to last year, Moore has gone 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA in his last eight home starts dating to August. Make the Giants a 10* play. |
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05-12-17 | Reds v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The San Francisco Giants had two starting position players return to the lineup Thursday but they still wound up on the losing end of a 3-2 game. Denard Span went 4-for-5 with a double and a solo HR after missing about three weeks with a shoulder sprains and hortstop Brandon Crawford (groin) went 1-for-4 from the cleanup spot in his return from the disabled list. With the defeat, San Francisco fell to a major league-worst 12-24 record and have now lost all four meetings with the Reds in 2017. The Reds have won seven of their last eight overall and sit at 19-15, a half-game back of the first-place Cards in the NL Central. |
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05-12-17 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-2 | Win | 105 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dodgers out-hit the Rockies Thursday 14-12 in the first contest of a four-game series at Coors Field. However, Colorado won the game 10-7, moving 2 1/2 games up on LA in the NL West. The loss snapped the Dodgers' season-high five-game winning streak, while the victory was the seventh in nine games for Colorado, which is off to the best 36-game start in franchise history at 23-13 The pitching matchup: Clayton Kershaw (5-2 & 2.40 ERA) will start for LA and Yyler Chatwood (3-4 & 4.74 ERA). Kershaw defeated San Diego in his last start, striking out nine in 7 1/3 innings while giving up just one run and five hits. This marks his third start of 2017 vs. Colorado, having split two decisions. The loss came back on April 8 at Coors, when Kershaw served up three HRs, allowing back-to-back HRs for the first time in his career. He's 19-6 with a 3.15 ERA in 34 career starts vs. Colrado (Dodgers are 25-9). Chatwood is coming off an excellent last outing, in which he allowed one run on two hits over seven-plus innings of a 5-2 victory against Arizona. It was a sharp turnaround from his previous three starts, when he surrendered 14 runs on 19 hits in 16 1/3 innings. Chatwood is 4-6 with a 3.52 ERA in 11 career starts versus the Dodgers (teams are 4-7). The pick: The teams pounded out 26 hits and scored 17 runs on Thursday. Expect a different result here. Kershaw has limited opposing batters to a .210 average with a 53-7 KW ratio over 48 2/3 innings (0.92 WHIP). In 34 career starts vs. Colorado, Kershaw has limited Rockies hitters to a .220/.283/.329 slash line. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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05-11-17 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -129 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The The Pittsburgh Pirates open a four-game series in Arizona against the Diamondbacks on Thursday, after beginning the team's seven-game road trip by getting swept in three games at Dodger Stadium. Pittsburgh has matched its season-worst losing streak of four games and finds itself at 14-20, 5 1/2 games back in the NL Central, occupying last place. The Diamondbacks are coming off a split the two-game of a two-game IL series with the Tigers and the team's 19-16 start to the 2017 season is a welcome relief after going only 69-83 last year. Arizona halted a three-game slide with six extra-base hits (three HRs & three doubles) in Wednesday's 7-1 victory over Detroit. |
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05-11-17 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -138 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: Seattle's pitching staff is currently decimated by injuries but the Seattle bats have come to the rescue, scoring 53 runs (7.57 per) in winning six of the team's last seven games. The Mariners got out of the blocks just 2-8 but head into Thursday's opener of a four-game series in Toronto against the Blue Jays at .500 on the season (17-17). The Blue Jays know all about slow starts, having opened the 2017 season at 1-9. However, Toronto may be slowly is turning its season around, after back-to-back series victories for the first time this season and wins in seven of its last 11 contests, overall. Ryan Goins had a walk-off single in the ninth inning of Wednesday's 8-7 triumph over Cleveland but the Jays, who have played in each of the last two ALCS, are already 9 1/2 games back of first-place in the AL East. |
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05-11-17 | Royals v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The Kansas City Royals opened their four-game series at Tampa Bay this past Monday on an eight-game road losing streak. However, the Royals won 7-3 on Monday and then again on Tuesday, 7-6 in 12 innings. KC's good fortune turned on Wednesday though, as the Rays enjoyed their best offensive outburst of the season. Tampa Bay's Colby Rasmus capped a three-hit performance with a grand slam in a 12-1 rout, a game in which Tampa Bay's lineup pounded out 16 hits. The teams wrap the series with a Thursday afternoon contest. |
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05-10-17 | Royals v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Kansas City Royals opened their four-game series at Tampa Bay on an eight-game road losing streak but have won the first two contests, 7-3 on Monday and then, in a 12-inning game on Tuesday, 7-6. Mike Moustakas hit a solo HR in the 12th to provide the margin of victory for the Royals, who rallied from a four-run deficit. KC now has a chance to clinch its first series win since sweeping a three-game set from the LA Angels back on April 14-16. Tampa Bay has lost three straight to drop three games below .500 for the first time this year, at 13-16. The pitching matchup: Jason Hammel (1-3 & 5.53 ERA) will get the nod for the Royals and Chris Archer (2-1 & 3.57 ERA) for the Rays. Hammel is coming off his best start of the season, which resulted in his first victory in a Kansas City uniform. He limited Cleveland to one run on three hits over six innings in a 3-1 win on Friday. However, Hammel has sure not pitched the way KC had hoped, when the Royals signed him to a FA deal in February. Prior's to Friday's win, he had lasted only three innings in each of his previous two starts and even after a good effort vs. the Indians, he's got an 'ugly' 5.53 ERA, a 1.70 WHIP and opponents are hitting .288 against him. Hammel, who spent the first three seasons of his career with Tampa Bay, is 2-2 with a 4.26 ERA in six starts against his former team (teams are 3-3). Archer registered a season-high 11 strikeouts against Toronto on Friday but did not factor in the decision after allowing three runs in six innings. He is now win-less in his last four starts and while his numbers aren't all that bad, the Rays have now lost his last three starts, after winning his first four. Hardly inspiring confidence for tonight's game is the fact that Archer has yet to defeat Kansas City in his career, going 0-4 with a 5.63 ERA in five starts (Rays are 1-4). The pick: Last night's 12-inning game could (should?) prove chaotic for each team's pitching staff, tonight. The Royals and Rays combined to use 15 pitchers last night, with all but one available reliever appearing. Neither starter much confidence heading into tonight and the bullpens just may be spent. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-10-17 | Orioles v. Nationals -173 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Orioles have dominated the Beltway Series (Nats haven't won a season series since 2007) and have now taken the first two of this four-game, home-and-home. The pick: The Orioles' Wade Miley (1-1 & 2.27 ERA) gets the ball up against the Nationals' Stephen Strasburg (3-1 & 2.66 ERA), as the series shifts to Washington for two games. Miley was unable to get through the first inning in his last outing, as he was hit with a pair of line drives and then removed for precautionary reasons. He was win-less over his previous three starts but had pitched well, giving up just five runs over 20 innings (team was 2-1). He has allowed just eight ERs in his first six outings of the season. Miley is 2-3 with 3.76 ERA in seven career starts against Washington (teams are 3-4). Strasburg will be looking to halt a three-game slide for the Nationals, who wasted eight stellar innings by Max Scherzer on Tuesday. He barely had his streak of five consecutive quality starts snapped last time out, but he still overcame four walks to toss 5 2/3 scoreless innings in a win at Philadelphia. He had worked seven innings in each of his first five starts but has not received much offensive support, with the Nationals scoring just 20 runs in his six starts this season. He's 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two career starts against the Orioles (Nats are 1-1). The pick: Strasburg may havr e to go at LEAST seven innings tonight, as Washington's bullpen ranks last in the National League with a 5.47 ERA! That said, I like the way Strasburg has pitched this season so far (1.08 WHIP & .220 BAA) and believe Miley's pitching over his head. Make the Nats an 8* play. |
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05-10-17 | Giants v. Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mets are going through a 'soap opera' with pitcher Matt Harvey but have a chance to make it a three-game sweep of their series with the Giants this afternoon, which would move them above the .500 mark for the first time since April 19. While the Mets sit at 16-16, losses on Monday and Tuesday at Citi Field leave the Giants at 11-13, owners of MLB's worst record. The Mets won 4-3 (Monday) and 6-1 last night, as the reeling Giants have dropped five in a row. This marks San Francisco's final contest of its nine-game road trip and the team has managed only nine runs on 23 hits during its five-game skid. The pitching matchup: Matt Cain (2-1 & 4.70 ERA) takes the mound for the Giants and Tommy Milone (1-0 & 6.43 ERA) gets the start for a troubled New York rotation. Cain was tagged for a career high-tying nine runs on 10 hits and six walks (which also matching a career worst) in losing 13-3 to the Reds last Friday. That was quite a drop-off, as he had allowed just three ERs over his previous four starts (23 innings with a 1.17 ERA), going 2-0 (team was 3-1). Cain is 6-6 with a 3.61 ERA in 15 career starts against the Mets (Giants are 8-7). Tommy Milone split his six appearances with Milwaukee between the rotation and bullpen to open the 2017 season but was waived after giving up four runs on six hits in a two-inning relief stint on April 29. The left-hander will make his New York Mets debut Wednesday afternoon and will be pitching for the first time in 12 days. He's only faced the Giants once in his career, back on May 29, 2013. He allowed four runs over five innings in that one but he got the win as the Oakland A's won 9-6 win at AT&T Park. The pick: Of course, Milone is a wild card but the good news for him is that the Giants are just not hitting. As for Cain, his last outing was a 'nightmare' but as noted, he was outstanding in his previous four turns. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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05-09-17 | Braves +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: Atlanta will send Bartolo Colon (1-3 & 6.27 ERA) to the mound to face Houston's Charlie Morton (3-2 & 3.97 ERA). The 43-year-old vet is not off to a good 2017 start and was knocked around in his last two outings, allowing 11 ERs on 17 hits in just nine innings against Milwaukee and the NY Mets. He's allowed just one run in two of his six starts this season but at least four runs in the other four. However, he's got a decent history against Houston, going 8-3 with a 3.45 ERA in 12 career starts (teams are 8-4). Morton spent the first nine years of his career in the NL (beginning with Atlanta as a rookie in 2008) but has found the AL to his liking so far, a he comes in looking for his third straight win after posting a total of 20 strikeouts in 13 innings against Oakland and Texas. He owns 39 strikeouts in 34 total innings in 2017. He's made five all-time starts against the team he began his career against, going 2-2 with a 3.96 ERA (teams are 3-2). The pick: Colon's not in prime form so far but he's got a good history against the Astros. Meanwhile, the Braves will likely be motivated against an ex-teammate, who has really been nothing more than a journeyman in his big league career so far, and that's being nice. Morton owns a career 49-73 record (.402), with a 4.51 ERA, 1.44 WHIP plus opponents have batted .276 against him. Take the 1 1/2 runs and make Atlanta an 8* play. |
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05-09-17 | Indians -164 v. Blue Jays | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The struggling Blue Jays recorded a 4-2 victory in the opener of their three-game home series against the Cleveland Indians last night. Edwin Encarnacion was welcomed back to his old stomping grounds and was given repeated thunderous ovations by the Toronto faithful while going 2-for-3 with a walk in his first game against the team he left this past off-season. Encarnacion had topped 30 HRs in each of the last five seasons for the Blue Jays before becoming a free agent and signing with the Indians. Ryan Goins hit a two-run HR and Justin Smoak delivered a two-run single as the Blue Jays fired the opening salvo against the team that defeated them in last season's ALCS. However, at 12-20, the Jays own the second-worst record in the AL, as they look forward to the returns of Troy Tulowitzki (hamstring) and Josh Donaldson (calf) later this month. The Indians sit atop the AL Central but at a modest 17-14, there are three teams within 1 1/2 games of them. The pitching matchup: Carlos Carrasco (3-2 & 2.18 ERA) gets the ball for Cleveland going up against Mike Bolsinger (1-4 & 6.83 ERA in 2016), who will make his 2017 debut. Carrasco defeated Detroit in his last outing, allowing two runs on five hits over six innings. He is 2-1 with a 6.26 ERA in five career appearances (four starts / team is 3-1) versus the Blue Jays. Bolsinger is being called up from Triple-A Buffalo to make a spot start as the club's rotation remains without Aaron Sanchez (fingernail) and J.A. Happ (elbow). He was 1-1 with a 1.46 ERA in four appearances (two starts) for Buffalo and owns an 8-16 record and 4.61 ERA in 37 career major-league appearances (36 starts). He first reached the majors with Arizona in 2014 and spent time with the Los Angeles Dodgers each of the last two seasons. He has never faced the Indians. The pick: Bolsinger will be the ninth starter used by Toronto already this season, a major reason (along with the injuries to Tulowitzki and Donaldson), as to why Toronto has struggled early on. No reason to expect a strong effort from Bolsinger in this one and note that Carrasco is 3-0 with a 1.83 ERA in three road starts this season, with a 20-3 KW ratio. Make Cleveland a 10* play. |
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05-09-17 | Nationals v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nats haven't bested the Orioles in a Beltway Series since going 4-2 back in 2007. The 2017 edition hasn't stared well for the Nats either, as Baltimore rode three HRs to a 6-4 victory on Monday night. Baltimore is now riding a five-game winning streak and sits at 21-10, just a half-game back of the NY Yankees in the AL East (Yanks own MLB's best record at 21-9). Washington fell to 21-11 with a second straight loss, following a four-game winning streak. However, there was good news for Washington, as Bryce Harper returned to the Nationals' lineup on Monday after missing the previous three games with a groin injury and went 2-for-3 with a home run, boosting his season batting average to .385. |
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05-08-17 | Angels v. A's UNDER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: Mike Trout (.355, 8 HRs & 21 RBI) is in the midst of a 17-game hitting streak but has missed the Angels' last two contests with tightness in his left hamstring. They hope to have him back on Monday as they visit the Oakland Athletics for the opener of the third series between these two American League West rivals already this season. The Angels lost 5-3 at home to the Astros on Sunday to fall a game under . 500 on the season (16-17), while the A's won on both Saturday and Sunday over the Tigers (each time in walk-off fashion) to give them a 14-17 record. The Angels are 5-2 against the Athletics this season, splitting a season-opening four game series in Oakland but then sweeping a three-game set at home from April 25-27. Â The pitching matchup: Ricky Nolasco (2-2 & 4.68 ERA) goes for LA and Kendall Graveman (2-2 & 3.95 ERA) for Oakland. These two will face each other for the third time this season. Graveman earned the victory and Nolasco took the loss on Opening Night at the Coliseum when the A's defeated the Angels 4-2, with Nolasco getting even on April 27 in Anaheim when he out-dueled Graveman in a 2-1 Angels victory. Nolasco is unbeaten in his last three outings, winning two straight before escaping Seattle with a no-decision on Wednesday after he surrendered four runs and eight hits over 4 1/3 innings. Nolasco is 4-3 with one shutout and a 3.34 ERA in nine career starts against the Athletics (teams are 5-4). Graveman is looking to rebound from a dismal performance at Minnesota on Wednesday (Twins won 7-4), when he was ripped for six runs on five hits and four walks in just 3 1/3 innings. It was his second consecutive loss since returning from the disabled list after going 2-0 while allowing a total of four runs over 18 innings in three starts prior to being injured. Graveman is 2-2 with one complete game and a 3.28 ERA in eight career starts against the Angels (team is 4-4).ÂThe pick: This is the third go-round for these pitchers in 2017, with the first two games ending with game-ending totals of six and three runs. Deja vu all over again, so make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-08-17 | Yankees -135 v. Reds | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cincinnati Reds just completed a three-game home sweep of the struggling SF Giants and have now won five straight and seven of eight to reach 17-14. Cincy is atop the NL Central, a half-game better than the Cards and one game better than the Cubs, who finished 35 1/2 games ahead of the Reds in 2016, when Cincinnati lost 94 games. Speaking of the Cubs, they were just swept at home by the Yankees this past weekend, after New York won 5-4 last night on ESPN in 18 innings.The Yankees come to Cincinnati for a two-game IL series tonight, having also won five in a row, as well as nine of their last 11 to give them a MLB-best 20-9 record. The pitching matchup: The Yankees will send Masahiro Tanaka (4-1 & 4.46 ERA) to the mound vs. the Reds' Rookie Davis (1-1 & 7.36 ERA). New York could use some length from Tanaka, as the bullpen went 11 innings, using six pitchers last night. Tanaka wasn't particularly sharp in his last outing (allowed four runs on eight hits over 6 1/3 innings) against Toronto but came away with an 11-5 win, his fourth straight. However, he had registered three consecutive quality starts prior to that outing, permitting a total of only four runs over 22 1/3 innings (1.61 ERA) with 14 strikeouts and four walks in that span. Tanaka has not faced the Reds but is a solid 6-4 with a 2.64 ERA in 11 interleague starts. Davis earned his first major-league victory with his most impressive performance of 2017 on Wednesday, when he held Pittsburgh to four hits and three walks over five scoreless innings. That was quite a turnaround, as he had not made it past four innings in any of his previous three outings, allowing 13 runs on 18 hits and seven walks over 9 2/3 innings (12.10 ERA). Davis will be facing an American League team for the first time in his career. The pick: Both teams come off three-game weekend sweeps and enter on five-game winning streaks but the Yankees are the better team, at least right now. Plus, it's hard not to favor Tanaka over Davis. New York swept the Reds in three games the last time they met in 2014 (in the Bronx) and also took two of three in the last series at Cincinnati three years earlier. Make the Yankees an 8* play. |
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05-07-17 | Red Sox -164 v. Twins | Top | 17-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: Boston has really missed Ortiz in the early going of 2017 and after scoring just 10 runs in their previous three games, the Red Sox shuffled their lineup a bit on Saturday with excellent results. Boston manager John Farrell sat slumping Jackie Bradley Jr. in favor of Chris Young and put Andrew Benintendi in the cleanup spot for the first time in his brief career Saturday. Young sparked an eight-run second-inning uprising with his first HR of the season, Benintendi began a three-hit effort later in the frame with a two-run double and Young slugged his second solo shot in three at-bats three innings later to extend Boston's cushion. Boston's 11-1 victory represented a season-best run total. The pitching matchup: The rubber match of this three game series (Twins won 4-3 on Friday) will feature two of MLB's top performers in the early part of the season. Chris Sale (2-2 & 1.38 ERA) gets the nod for Boston and Ervin Santana (5-0 & 0.66 ERA) for Minnesota. Sale has worked at least seven innings and allowed two runs or less in all six of his 2017 starts but a lack of run support has led to just two wins (Boston is 4-2 in his six games, though). The five-time All-Star has struck out at least 10 in five straight outings and ranks second in the majors in WHIP (0.74) as well as being fourth in ERA. Santana worked around three walks and continued his exceptional start to the season Tuesday against Oakland, yielding only three singles and striking out seven in six scoreless innings of a 9-1 win. He has allowed a total of just three ERs and only 16 hits over 41 innings, as he leads the majors in ERA and WHIP (0.71) and is tied for the league lead in wins. The pick: Neither pitcher has good LT records against the team they are facing (Sale's ERA is 4.58 in 16 starts against Minnesota and Santana's ERA in 5.11 against Boston in 15 starts) but that was then and this is now. I've included plenty of stats above but will add here that Sale leads the majors with 63 strikeouts while holding hitters to a .166 batting average, second only to Santana's .120 mark. Kudos to Santana but Sale's in the prime of his career while Santana's 2017 effort seems "too good to be true." Let's also note that while Boston won 93 games in 2016, Minnesota lost 103. These teams are not equals. Make Boston an 8* play. |
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05-07-17 | Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The Braves were coming off a 68-93 season in 2016 but players and fans alike were looking forward to 2017, if for no other reason than the team was opening a new home stadium, SunTrust Park. However, Atlanta is just 11-17 to open the season and after starting 4-0 in its new stadium, the Braves have dropped seven of their last eight games at home. The Cards missed the postseason in 2016 for the first time since 2010 and started slowly in 2017 at 3-9. However, they have won 12 of 17 games since, including the first two of this three-game series in Atlanta, 10-0 on Friday and 5-3 last night. St. Louis goes for its first series sweep on the road this year when the Cards cap a three-game set at SunTrust Park with Braves on Sunday afternoon. The pitching matchup: Michael Wacha (2-1 & 3.23 ERA) takes the mound for the Cards and R.A. Dickey (3-2 & 3.94 ERA) for the Braves. Wacha gave up a season-high four ERs in six innings of a no-decision against Milwaukee this past Monday but note that he's off to a solid start in 2017, lasting at least six innings while walking two batters or less in all five of his starts (has 28 Ks in 30 2/3 innings). He owns 3.12 ERA in three career games versus Atlanta but is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in one start. Unlike the 25-year-old Wacha, Dickey will be making the 375th appearance and 275th start of his career. He's looking for a third straight win but although he has held opponents to a .248 average, six of the 19 hits he has allowed over the last four starts have been HRs. Dickey owns a 4.09 ERA in seven career appearances against St. Louis. That includes five starts in which he's 3-1 with a 4.26 ERA (teams are 4-1). The pick: The Cards have now won five straight in Atlanta dating back to Turner Field last season and Wacha is beginning to show signs of the pitcher we saw back in the 2013 postseason (4-1 & 2.64 ERA) and 2015's regular season (17-7). As noted, Dickey hasn't given up many hits lately (19 in his last 24 innings) but six have left the park. Expect him to clean that up here and I'll make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-06-17 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither the Diamondbacks nor the Rockies contended in 2016 (Colorado was only 75-87 and Arizona even worse at 69-93) but the Rockies are currently atop the NL West at 18-12, with the D'backs just a half-game back at 18-13. Arizona closed the gap to a half-game with last night's 6-3 win in Coors, led by Paul Goldschmidt's two HRs and season-high five RBI. The pitching matchup: A pair of left-handers take the mound on Saturday night, Patrick Corbin (2-3 & 2.29 ERA) for Arizona and Tyler Anderson (1-3 & 7.71 ERA) for Colorado. Corbin allowed just two hits over 6 1/3 scoreless innings in a no-decision against Colorado last Sunday and is 5-2 with a 4.48 ERA in 13 career starts against them (team is 10-3). Corbin comes in on a roll, having allowed just four ERs over his last three starts (1.86 ERA), while striking out 23, against just four walks, in 19 1/3 innings. Anderson has to be happy that April is over. The team actually split his six starts last month, despite him posting a 7.71 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and .303 BAA. He gave up a season-high six runs in five innings (allowed three HRs) but escaped with a no-decision against Arizona in his last start on April 29. Speaking of HRs, he's allowed nine in his 30 1/3 innings this season. Anderson has three no-decisions against Arizona but has posted a 7.80 ERA and 2.09 WHIP in those outings (team is 1-2). The pick: The over may be tempting to some but Corbin comes in pitching very well plus Anderson is not as bad as he's pitched so far. In fact, he allowed three ERs or less in 10 of his 12 home starts last season. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-06-17 | Red Sox -151 v. Twins | Top | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Twins enter the first weekend of May in first place in the American League Central at 15-12. That's quite an improvement from last year's 59-103 record, as the Twins finished in last-place for the fourth time in the last six seasons. They will host the Red Sox in this second of a three-game series this afternoon, after winning Friday night's game 4-3 on Joe Mauer's walk-off HR (surprisingly, the first of his career). With the loss, Boston fell to 4-7 on the road and 15-14, overall. The Red Sox really miss es Ortiz, as last year's team led all of MLB in team BA (.282) and runs scored (5.42 per game). The 2017 Red Sox come in batting .266 and more concerning, are scoring only 3.79 RPG to rank 26th of 30 teams! The pitching matchup: Rick Porcello (1-4 & 4.46 ERA) will get the nod for Boston and Nick Tepesch (NR) gets the start for Minnesota. Porcello is off a 2016 season in which he won the AL's Cy Young, going 22-4 with a 3.15 ERA (team was 25-8, plus-$1470 to rank 3rd-best in all his starts). However, he has already matched his 2016 loss total, although a lack run support has been a contributing factor. He's only had one bad start (allowed eight ERs in 4 1/3 innings April 14th vs. the Rays), as he has allowed just four ERs in his three starts since that outing over 19 2/3 innings (1.83 ERA) but each start has ended in a loss. Porcello is 9-9 with 3.94 ERA in 27 career starts against the Twins, with his teams going 13-14. Nick Tepesch spent time in four different organizations in 2016 while combining to go 8-4 with a 3.96 ERA, all at the Triple-A level. He went 1-1 with a 2.00 mark with 17 strikeouts in 18 innings through three starts to begin this season for Triple-A Rochester and makes his Minnesota debut in the majors this afternoon. He has never faced Boston but is 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA in two previous starts at Target Field. The pick: Tepesch was originally drafted out of high school by the Red Sox before choosing to attend the University of Missouri, He has appeared in 43 career major league games, making 40 starts, with a 9-18 record and 4.68 ERA. He started his career in Texas, where he saw time in the majors in 2013 and 2014. He made his way back in 2016 for Los Angeles and that's where he made his most recent start in the "bigs," back on June 24, 2016, Boston has struggled at the plate but Tepesch could be "just what the doctor ordered." As for Porcello, he's pitched well without any luck over his last three turns and is overdue for some help. Make Boston an 8* play. |
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05-05-17 | Diamondbacks -107 v. Rockies | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rockies were 75-87 last season and the D'backs were 69-93, with both teams well behind the division-winning Dodgers by 16 and 22 games, respectively. However, in the early going of 2017, Colorado sits at 18-11 and in first place in the NL West, while the D'backs are right behind them at 17-13 (1 1/2 games back). That sets the stage for this three-game series with the D'backs at Coors Field. Colorado has produced sub-.500 records away from Coors Field each of the last seven seasons but Thursday's 3-2, 11-inning victory at San Diego gives them an 11-5 road record in 2017, -the second-best mark in the majors behind Washington. Arizona fell 4-2 in Washington on Thursday in the rubber match of that three-game series, which was the first leg of this six-game road trip against the teams with the two best records in the NL. The pitching matchup: Zack Greinke (2-2 & 3.19 ERA) will get the ball for Arizona on Friday and German Marquez (0-1 & 7.20 ERA) for Colorado. Greinke struck out nine over six innings last Saturday at home vs. the Rockies but surrendered three solo HRs in a no-decision versus Colorado (Rockies won 7-6 on a three-run 9th!). The 2009 American League Cy Young Award winner is 7-4 with a 4.11 ERA in 21 games (20 starts / teams are 12-8) versus the Rockies in his career. Marquez is a rookie making his third start of 2017. He rebounded from a poor season debut (eight runs allowed over just four innings in a 15-12 loss to Washington on April 25) with a terrific outing in a no-decision last Sunday at Arizona, allowing six hits and walking one while striking out eight over six scoreless innings. Marquez has worked eight scoreless innings in two career appearances (one start) against the Diamondbacks. The pick: Colorado has had its struggles at Coors Field early in 2017, going just 7-6, mainly because it's allowed 6.15 RPG at home. The Diamondbacks are 12-5 at Chase Field and just 5-8 on the road but Greinke over Marquez makes this a 10* play on Arizona. |
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05-05-17 | Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The Toronto Blue Jays have played in the last two ALCS matchups but have opened the 2017 season with the worst record in MLB at 9-19. The Blue Jays are still waiting he left side of their infield, 3B Josh Donaldson and SS Troy Tulowitzki, to return from injuries, as they head to Tampa for a three-game series with the 15-15 Rays. Donaldson (calf) has been sidelined since April 13 while shortstop Tulowitzki (hamstring) has been out since April 21, but both could return early next week. The Rays beat Miami 5-1 on Thursday and have won three of their last four games, allowing just four runs in those three victories. The Blue Jays took two of three from the Rays last week in Toronto, allowing just one run in each of the victories. The pitching matchup: Francisco Liriano (2-2 & 3.97 ERA) opens the series for Toronto, opposed by Tampa's ace, Chris Archer (2-1 & 3.43 ERA). Liriano beat the Rays last Saturday in Toronto, allowing just one run on four hits over five innings. The 33-year-old vet has had control issues this season, walking 15 batters in 22 2/3 innings but has allowed only one HR. He's 3-3 with a 5.49 ERA in 12 career appearances (11 starts / teams are 5-6) versus the Rays. Archer is win-less in his last three outings (0-2 with a 4.74 ERA / team is 1-2) but in his most recent start (April 30), he allowed just one ER on four hits in a no-decison against the Blue Jays (Toronto won 3-1). He is 6-4 with a 3.06 ERA in 21 career starts against the Blue Jays (Rays are 12-9). The pick: These teams have seen a lot of each other so far, with the Rays taking three of four from Toronto in an early series at Tropicana Field and the Jays winning two of three when they played at Rogers Centre last weekend. Toronto's recovered from a 1-9 start to go 8-10 its last 18 but the Jays are only 6-11 on teheroad, allowing 5.9 RPG. Meanwhile, the Rays are 10-5 at home, where they have averaged 5.20 RPG. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-04-17 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rockies lost 2-0 (13 inn.) on Sunday and then opened a three-game series in San Diego with the Padres on Tuesday with a 6-2 defeat. However, those Colorado bats woke up Wednesday night at Petco, pounding out 14 hits in an 11-3 win. Ian Desmond was the hitting star, going 3-for-5 with two HRs and three RBI. The loss ended San Diego's modest three-game winning streak and note that San Diego has now lost three of its last four home games, leaving them just 6-5 at home. The teams square off in the rubber game of this series with 17-11 Colorado sitting atop the NL West and the 12-17 Padres 5 1/2 games back of the Rockies, ahead of only the 11-18 Giants in the division. |
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05-04-17 | Rangers v. Astros -151 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -151 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Astros have scored 24 runs in winning the first three of this four-game home series against the Texas Rangers. The Astros are now 19-9, giving them MLB's best record, as they go for the sweep in this Thursday afternoon contest. Houston has matched the franchise's best 28-game start from 2006 and has opened 2017 at 15-4 against its American League West rivals. By losing these first three games against the Astros, the Rangers' losing streak has reached four in a row and with seven losses in their last nine, the Rangers now occupy the basement in the AL West at 11-17. |
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05-03-17 | Angels v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The red-hot Angels pushed across two runs in the 11th inning for a 6-4 triumph in Tuesday's opener of the three-game set at Seattle. LA has now won seven of eight, as Albert Pujols recorded three hits on Tuesday, including the tie-breaking double in the 11th inning. Mike Trout extended his hitting streak to 15 games, matching his career best. It was LA's 11th comeback win of the season and the 15-13 Angels are now 4-0 against the Mariners this season. Los Angeles is 15-13 (3 1/2 back of Houston), while Seattle falls to 11-16, tied with Texas at the bottom of the AL West, seven games back of the Astros. The pitching matchup: Ricky Nolasco (2-2 & 4.13 ERA) will take the mound for LA and Hisashi Iwakuma (0-2 & 4.15 ERA) for Seattle. Nolasco has won back-to-back decisions, including a victory over Oakland last time out in which he allowed one run and three hits in 5 2/3 innings. Nolasco settled for a no-decision against Seattle back on April 8 (LA won 5-4), when he gave up two runs and four hits over six frames, and is 1-4 with a 4.33 ERA in six career starts versus the Mariners (teams are 2-4). Iwakuma remains winless in five starts to open the 2017 season and even more troubling, he has lasted less than six innings in each of his last three outings. He had a career-best 16 wins last season but a KW ratio that was more than 7-to-1 in 2014 (154-21!), is nearly even this season (12 strikeouts, 11 walks). Iwakuma is 9-5 with a 2.76 ERA in 20 career appearances (19 starts / Seattle is 11-8) against the Angels. He gave up one run and two hits in six innings of a no-decision back on April 9, a game LA won 10-9 with a seven-run 9th! The pick: The Angels are rolling (7-1 run) and I won't stand in their way here. However, I don't much trust Nolasco, who has had ERAs of 5.38, 6.75 and 4.42 in each of the last three seasons. He kept the ball in teh park against the Athletics in his last start but the veteran had served up seven HRs over his first four starts, allowing 27 hits over 22 2/3 innings with a 4.76 ERA. The Mariners have averaged 5.10 RPG at home and have allowed 4.20. The Angels have averaged 5.40 RPG in their last five wins and that makes the Over an 8* play. |
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05-03-17 | Indians -169 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Miguel Cabrera returned from the DL last night for Detroit and hit his 450th career HR, helping the Tigers to a third straight win, 5-2 over the Indians. It also marked the Tigers' fourth win in five outings this season versus the Indians, who won last year's Central Division (Tigers finished eight games back). With two wins in this four-game series so far, the Tigers are now tied at 14-12 with the Indians, as the AL Central has four teams at the top of the division (Twins and White Sox are the others), all within a half-game of each other. The pitching matchup: Carlos Carrasco (2-2 & 2.04 ERA) takes the mound for Cleveland up against Detroit's Matthew Boyd (2-1 & 3.86 ERA). Carrasco hasn't had much run support this season, as the Indians hav escored just 12 runs during his 35 1/3 innings, leaving him a modest 2-2 in five starts (team is 3-2), despite his 2.04 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and .175 opponents BA. Carrasco doesn't have a strong record against Detroit, going 5-7 with a 5.14 ERA in 15 career starts (team is 7-8). Boyd got the better of Carrasco in the April 16 outing after yielding just one run in six innings to improve to 1-0 with an 0.84 ERA in two career outings versus Cleveland. He comes into this game off back-to-back no-decisions in his last two trips to the mound. The pick: Detroit's four wins (in just five games) matches the team's total against the division champions of 2016. Carlos Carrasco's 2016 season ended abruptly against the Detroit Tigers in 2016 when he sustained a fractured right hand after he was struck by an Ian Kinsler line drive last September.when. However, he has returned with a vengeance this season and enters off four straight quality starts. He finally gets some support and gets some revenge against Boyd, from that 4-1 April 16th loss. Make Cleveland an 8* play. |
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05-02-17 | Angels v. Mariners OVER 7 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: Matt Shoemaker (1-1 & 4.73 ERA) gets the ball for Seattle and James Paxton (3-0 & 1.39 ERA) for the Mariners. Shoemaker picked up his first victory of the season Wednesday versus the Athletics (in his fifth start), allowing two runs on seven hits and a pair of walks over five innings. He has struck out 20 in 17 1/3 innings over his last three appearances and permitted two runs or fewer four times but he has managed only one quality start. Shoemaker is 4-4 with a 4.35 ERA in 11 career stats against Seattle (team is 7-4). Paxton did not allow an earned run in his first three starts of 2017 but then allowed five at Oakland on April 20. However, he regained his dominant form Wednesday at Detroit, allowing only four hits while striking out nine in seven scoreless innings to win for the third time in his last four turns. He has posted a 39-6 KW ratio for the season. Paxton is 3-2 with a 2.17 ERA in seven career starts against the Angels (team is 4-3). |
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