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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-19-18 | Tigers v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers have played five times in 2018, with four of the five being decided by one run. Seattle opened a four-game home series with Detroit on Thursday, falling 3-2. However, the Mariners avenged that loss with a dramatic 5-4 victory last night. The Tigers jumped out to a four-run lead but the Mariners scored all five of their runs in an explosive seventh inning to improve to 10-7 in one-run contests this season. The Mariners now own 11 comeback victories on the season, tied for the third-most in the American League. The Tigers are 10-9 in one-run games and one of two teams who have played more such contests than Seattle, pulling into a tie with Tampa Bay for the most in the majors. The four-game set continues Saturday night with the Tigers sitting at 20-24 and the Mariners at 25-19. However, Detroit is just 1 1/2 games back in the AL Central, as no team in that division owns a winning record. Meanwhile, the Mariners are in the AL West, which features the defending world champion Astros, so Seattle sits three games back, despite its much better won-loss mark. The pitching matchup: Mike Fiers (4-2, 4.23 ERA) will take the mound for Detroit, opposed by Seattle lefty James Paxton (2-1, 3.52 ERA). Fiers comes in on a modest two-start winning streak, after allowing just one run on a solo HR and three hits across five innings in throwing a season-high 92 pitches in Monday's 6-3 home win over the Indians. Fiers has not walked more than one batter in any of his seven starts and is averaging a career-low 15.1 pitches per inning. However, in five career starts against Seattle, Fiers owns a 6.00 ERA. Surprisingly, he has yet to lose to the Mariners, going 1-0 with four no-decisions. Paxton followed up his no-hitter at Toronto on May 8 with his fourth consecutive quality start in a no-decision at Detroit on Sunday, allowing three runs on six hits in six innings (Mariners lost 5-4). Paxton reportedly dealt with food poisoning between starts but is 1-0 with a 1.61 ERA and 37 strikeouts over 28 innings in his last four outings, although Seattle is just 2-2 in those games. He is 2-1 with a 3.41 ERA in six starts against the Tigers. The pick: Paxton came into his own in 2017, as team ace "King Felix" dealt with injuries, going 12-5 with a 2.98 ERA. His 2018 season has already featured a no-hitter in Toronto on May 8, when he became the first Canadian to accomplish the feat in his native country. I've always liked Fiers and as noted above (see for a reminder), these teams have loved playing one-run games in 2018. Make the Under a 10* play.
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05-19-18 | Phillies v. Cardinals -125 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cards lost the opener of their four-game home series with the Phillies, 6-2 on Thursday. St. Louis went into Friday's contest having scored three or fewer runs in seven of its previous nine games. but pounded out 15 hits, including three HRs, in a 12-4 Friday win to even the series at a game apiece. It marked only the second time all season the Cardinals have scored in double digits. As for the Phillies, it was their first loss in nine games against an NL Central opponent, as well as being just the Phillies’ second defeat in their last nine games, overall. The Phillies enter Saturday's afternoon contest in St. Louis having homered in 13 straight games! Getting back to St. Louis, the phrase "next man up" is starting to wear on the team. It's been a dizzying week of injuries that has left the Cards minus two starting pitchers, a bevy of relievers, their All-Star catcher and now their young shortstop, Paul DeJong. He broke his hand when hit with a pitch Thursday night (he could be out for up to eight weeks) but minus the guy who started their first 41 games at shortstop, the Cardinals trounced the Phillies 12-4 on Friday night. The Cardinals look to build on one of their best offensive showings of the season when they continue a four-game series against the visiting Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday afternoon. The pitching matchup: Zach Eflin (1-0, 0.71 ERA) will start for the Phillies, while John Gant (1-1, 4.15 ERA) takes the mound for the Cardinals. The 24-year-old Eflin has been outstanding in his first two big-league starts of the season, allowing one run on seven hits over 12 2/3 innings. He struck out nine in 6 2/3 scoreless frames to beat San Francisco 11-0 on May, before having his last turn in the rotation skipped. Eflin, who is allowing opponents to bat only .159, has never faced the Cardinals. Gant will make a spot start in place of injured ace Carlos Martinez. He has made three relief appearances and one start this season, allowing four runs in 5 1/3 innings in a 6-0 loss to Minnesota on May 7 in his only starting assignment..Gant entered the 2018 season with 27 career appearances, including just nine combined starts with Atlanta in 2016 and St. Louis last year. He is 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA in two games (one start) against the Phillies. The pick: Not sure just what to expect from Gant but I'm not fooled by Eflin's two excellent 2018 starts. He made exactly a 11 starts each of the previous two seasons while posting ERAs of 5.54 and 6.16 plus WHIP's of 1.23 and 1.41, respectively. Make St. Louis an 8* play. |
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05-18-18 | Orioles +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Red Sox won 6-2 in Thursday's series opener against the Baltimore Orioles. Home runs by J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts backed David Price's first complete game since 2016. Mookie Betts added three hits to boost his AL-leading average to .364 and Martinez homered for the eighth time in his last 15 games, although he left early due to a stomach ailment. The victory marked Boston's seventh straight over Baltimore, dating to 2017. The Red Sox will try to extend their winning streak against the Baltimore Orioles to eight games when the AL East rivals continue a four-game series at Fenway Park on Friday. The Orioles had won five of six while scoring at least five runs in each victory before being held to a total of three runs on nine hits in back-to-back losses, 4-1 to the Phillies on Wednesday and last night in Fenway to the Red Sox. The lone bright spot for Baltimore was when Manny Machado broke up Price's shutout bid with a two-run homer with two outs in the ninth for his fifth home run in a seven-game span.
The pitching matchup: Alex Cobb (0-5, 7.06 ERA) takes the mound for Baltimore and lefty Drew Pomeranz (1-1, 5.47 ERA) gets the nod for Boston.Cobb has been a huge bust so far (he spent his firest six seasons with the Rays), as he remains in search of his first win of 2018. He's made six starts with Baltimore losing all six. The Boston native allowed three earned runs over 5 2/3 innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday, while getting through a start without issuing a walk for the first time this year. However, he was pounded for eight runs (seven earned) in 3 2/3 innings at Fenway Park in his season debut and is 6-5 with a 4.02 ERA in 15 career starts against the Red Sox. Pomeranz is off an excellent season (17-6, 3.32 ERA) but has not come near matching that effort here in 2018, after beginning the season on the D (he has made just five starts). He delivered a pair of quality starts to begin May but then lasted just four innings while giving up three runs on five hits and five walks at Toronto on Sunday. He has allowed 28 hits and 13 walks in 24 2/3 innings overall, to register an early WHIP of 1.66, which would be his highest mark since 2013. Pomeranz owns a 3.34 ERA in eight career matchups (five starts) against the Orioles. The pick: Cobb was one of those late-signing free agents who didn't get much of a spring training and the results have shown just that. However, he has recovered from a dismal April (3.11 ERA) to produce a 3.06 ERA in three May starts plus he is 5-2 in eight career starts at Boston's Fenway Park. Take the 1 1/2 runs and make Baltimore an 8* play. |
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05-18-18 | Padres v. Pirates UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pittsburgh Pirates improved to 15-6 at home following Thursday's 5-4 series-opening triumph over San Diego, notching their second straight one-run victory, giving themselves a 9-3 record in one-run games so far in 2018, including 6-0 at home.The 26-17 Pirates are a half-game up on the 26-18 Brewers in the NL Central and will continue their four-game series with the Padres tonight, looking for a ninth victory in their last 10 outings (Pirates are 5-1 two-thirds of the way through their nine-game homestand). As for the Padres, they are in last place in the NL West. However, there is some good news. After going 10-20 over March and April, San Diego is 7-8 so far in May.
The pitching matchup:Tyson Ross (2-3, 3.40 ERA) takes the mound for San Diego and he will be opposed by Pittsburgh's Ivan Nova (2-3, 5.01 ERA). Ross allowed only one run on three hits and two walks while fanning seven over six innings in a no-decision Saturday against St. Louis (Padres won 2-1). He enters this contest winless over his last five outings but while he's 0-2 in that span, the Padres are 3-2 in those contests. Ross has struck out 39 in 29 2/3 innings over his last five starts, while holding the opposition to one run three times over that span. Ross has five career starts vs. Pittsburgh, going 1-2 with a 3.29 ERA. Nova opened the season with five quality starts in six tries but hasn't been the same since an excellent eight-inning effort on April 26 (six hits / no runs,/ no walks / five Ks). He lost for the second time in three outings after getting roughed up for four runs across 5 2/3 innings by San Francisco on Sunday. He has now surrendered a total of 17 runs (14 earned) on 25 hits over his last 12 1/3 innings (that's a 9.95 ERA!). Nova is 1-1 with a 2.31 ERA in four career starts against San Diego, including 0-1 with a 4.09 ERA in two starts last year. |
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05-17-18 | Padres v. Pirates -155 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pittsburgh Pirates completed a two-game sweep of the Chicago White Sox (MLB's worst team at 10-29) on Wednesday for their seventh victory in the last eight games. The Pirates improved to a major league-best 10-2 in interleague play despite missing center fielder Starling Marte and catcher Francisco Cervelli, who are listed as day-to-day after they were injured in Tuesday's game. The team's current hot streak has propelled them into first place in the National League Central with a 25-17 (.595) record. Pittsburgh is percentage points ahead of the 26-18 Brewers (.591). The Pirates will resume their nine-game homestand with the first of four against the San Diego Padres on Thursday night. The Padres opened their nine-game homestand by dropping four of five but bounced back to win three of the next four, culminating with a 4-0 victory over Colorado on Wednesday. The 17-27 Padres find themselves in a virtual last place in the NL West (with the LA Dodgers) despite playing a major league-high 29 games at home, where they are just 11-18. San Diego now kicks off a 10-game road trip with its visit to Pittsburgh, after playing only 15 (6-9) of their first 44 games away from Petco Park. The pitching matchup: San Diego rookie lefty Eric Lauer (1-2, 8.27 ERA) will get the start for the Padres with Chad Kuhl (4-2, 4.17 ERA) getting the nod for the Pirates. Lauer followed the best start of his brief major league career with his worst, getting rocked for six runs and serving up four HRs in only 2 1/3 innings in a home loss to St. Louis in his last time out. The 2016 first-round draft pick earned his first career win in his previous start by blanking the Los Angeles Dodgers on seven hits over six innings in 3-0 victory on May 6. Lauer not only owns an ugly 8.27 ERA but he also has a 2.14 WHIP, while opponents are batting .365 against him. Kuhl comes in having registered his fourth quality start in his last five outings but had to settle for a no-decision against San Francisco after giving up three runs and six hits over six innings this past Saturday. Kuhl is 3-1 over his last five starts (team is 4-1) but has allowed eight HRs in that span. Kuhl will be making his third career start against the Padres and owns a 1-0 record with a 3.18 ERA in 11 1/3 innings against San Diego.
The pick: Rookie lefty Lauer (8.27 ERA / 2.14 WHIP / .365 BAA) figures to be "up against it' vs. a Pittsburgh team which is 14-6 at PNC Park, outscoring opponents 5.55-to-3.50 RPG. Make Pittsburgh an 8* play. |
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05-17-18 | A's v. Blue Jays -115 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Blue Jays recorded 15 hits, including seven for extra bases, in a 12-1 victory at the New York Mets on Wednesday afternoon to snap a three-game losing streak and sneak back over the .500 mark at 22-21. The Blue Jays now open a four-game home series against the visiting Oakland Athletics on Thursday night. The Athletics started a difficult nine-game stretch by losing five of six against Houston and the New York Yankees, before winning two of three at Boston, after dropping the finale 6-4 on Wednesday. This four-game series at Toronto will conclude Oakland's 10-game road trip with A's sitting one game under .500 at 21-22.
The pitching matchup: Andrew Triggs (3-1, 5.31 ERA) will take the mound for the A's, going up against the Blue Jays' Aaron Sanchez (2-3, 4.08 ERA). Triggs has alternated strong and rough starts over his past six appearances after allowing six runs over just 4 1/3 innings at the Yankees last Saturday in a no-decision (NYY won 7-6 in 11 inn.). It's been feast or famine for Triggs in 2018, who also owns two quality starts in his last four trips to the mound and he has limited opponents to two or fewer runs in five of eight starts overall. Triggs' only career outing against Toronto was a one-inning stint in which he allowed two hits and one unearned run back on July 17, 2016 at Oakland in a 5-3 team loss. Sanchez threw just 60 of 96 pitches for strikes last time out against Boston, permitting three runs (two earned) on five hits and three walks over five innings in a no-decision (Jays won 5-3 in 12 inn.). Sanchez had a stretch of four straight quality starts (from April 4-25), before giving up 11 runs (eight earned) over 14 2/3 innings in his last three appearances (4.91 ERA). Sanchez has made just three career appearances vs. Oakland (only one start)and owns 0-1 record with an 8.53 ERA. |
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05-16-18 | Reds v. Giants -152 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -152 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: San Francisco won its third straight game with Tuesday’s 5-3 victory over Cincinnati, moving one game over .500 at 22-21. First baseman Brandon Belt homered and shortstop Brandon Crawford went 4-for-4 in the win. Hunter Strickland worked a perfect ninth inning for his ninth save and has made a strong case to continue as the team’s closer even after Mark Melancon (forearm) returns at the end of the month. Cincinnati opened 3-15 and fired manager Bryan Price. They have played much better under interim manager Jim Riggleman, going 11-14 with second baseman Scooter Gennett and third baseman Eugenio Suarez leading the resurgence. Suarez went 2-for-3 with a two-run HRwhile batting third in Tuesday’s loss and has a team-high 30 RBI in just 27 games. The Giants look to complete a three-game home sweep today at AT&T Park. The pitching matchup: The Reds will hand the ball to the newly-acquired Matt Harvey (0-2, 6.10 ERA), while the Giants go with lefty Andrew Suarez (1-2, 4.57 ERA). Harvey was acquired from the New York Mets last week and looks to build on his impressive Cincy debut. Harvey gave up one hit, struck out two and walked none over four innings in a no-decision against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday. “It’s a good first start,” he told reporters. “It’s only four innings. There’s a lot of work and a lot of season left. But to go out there and get outs and help the team win is very important.” However, Harvey is 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA in three career starts versus San Francisco. In contrast, Suarez is looking to bounce back from a rough outing last Friday against Pittsburgh, giving up five runs on seven hits over just four innings. However, he was sharp in his previous two starts, allowing a total of three runs (two earned) with 11 strikeouts across 12 1/3 innings. Suarez was recalled from Triple-A Sacramento earlier this month to replace Johnny Cueto (elbow) in the rotation and owns a 23-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his four starts.
The pick: Suarez, a rookie, has never faced the Reds which seems like a better resume than Harvey's poor record against the Giants (see above). After struggling so badly for the New York Mets that they designated him for assignment, prompted a trade to the Reds for catcher Devin Mesoraco, Harvey retired 12 of the 13 batters he faced in Los Angeles, allowing only one hit. I guess one could take the position that "the exception" is the rule but not I. I'll note that Harvey made 19 appearances (18 starts) for the Mets in 2017, posting a 6.70 ERA and 1.69 WHIP, while allowing opponents to hit .381! In eight 2018 appearances for the Mets (four starts) he owned a 7.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP, while opponents batted .355. I expect a San Francisco sweep. Make the Giants an 8* play. |
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05-16-18 | Cardinals -122 v. Twins | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Twins are a sub-.500 team at 18-20, while the St. Louis Cardinals check in at 22-17 as teams close in on the 40-game mark (about 25% of the 162-game schedule). However, when the two teams wrap up a two-game interleague set on Wednesday afternoon in Minnesota at Target Field, the Twins have a chance to complete a season sweep of the Cardinals. Minnesota won 4-1 on Tuesday and has now held St. Louis to a total of just two runs while winning the first three meetings. Minnesota has now won eight of its last 11 after Tuesday's victory, pulling them within a half-game of AL Central leader Cleveland. The Twins snapped out of a brief offensive funk in the series opener after scoring only one run in each of their previous two games (both losses). As for the Cardinals, they have totaled five runs during a three-game skid and managed only two hits in Tuesday’s series opener. The pitching matchup: Miles Mikolas (5-0, 2.51 ERA) gets the start for the Cards and the Twins sill send former Cardinal Lance Lynn (1-3, 7.34 ERA( to the mound to face his ex-teammates. The 29-year-old Mikolas spent the previous three seasons in Japan but is proving he can be an effective big-league starter (that's an understatement). Mikolas allowed one run over 6 2/3 innings of a win at San Diego last time out for his fifth consecutive quality start, after he allowed four ERs on seven hits in 5 2/3 innings in his 2018 debut back on April 2. Mikolas has 35 strikeouts and only three walks in 46 2/3 innings in 2018, helping him to an 0.96 WHIP. Lynn spent his last six seasons with the Cardinals, going 72-47 with a 3.38 ERA. Lynn turned down a $17.4 million qualifying offer from St. Louis but didn't land with the Twins, who signed him to a one-year deal, until late in spring training. Lynn has shown better control over his last two starts, walking only two batters after issuing 23 free passes over his first five outings. However, he has only one quality start among his seven outings of 2018 (Twins are 2-5 in his starts).
The pick: Mikolas takes the mound with a 2.51 ERA, an 0.96 WHIP with opponents hitting .233 against him. In stark contrast, Lynn owns a 7.34 ERA, 1.98 WHIP and opponents are batting .312 against him. That hardly seems like a fair fight. Matt Carpenter returned to the St. Louis Cardinals' lineup Tuesday night after getting a few days off to regroup. Now, it's Dexter Fowler's turn to get back on track. Fowler is expected back among St. Louis' starting nine Wednesday. Both he and Carpenter have gotten off to the worst offensive starts of their careers in 2018 but both are "players!" Their return IS good news. Make the Cards a 10* play. |
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05-15-18 | Astros -176 v. Angels | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-15-18 | Indians -138 v. Tigers | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -138 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-14-18 | Reds v. Giants -130 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-14-18 | Rays v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-13-18 | Nationals v. Diamondbacks -122 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -122 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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05-13-18 | Twins v. Angels -156 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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05-12-18 | Reds v. Dodgers -186 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -186 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The LA Dodgers were one win away from their first World Series title since 1988 last season, falling in a Gam7 to the Astros. They entered the current season as the five-time defending NL West champs but almost nothing has gone right for them in 2018. LA lost last night 6-2 to the sad-sack Reds (11-27 record is an NL-worst) and has now lost five of its last six games and 12 of its last 17. “We know we’re better than this,” manager Dave Roberts told reporters. “We’ve got to keep believing it. It hasn’t shown itself recently. But to just keep grinding, that’s all we can do.” However, the Dodgers continue this four-game set averaging just 3.2 runs in their last 13 games. Meanwhile, the Reds are showing signs of life under interim manager Jim Riggleman and bring a season-high four-game winning streak into Saturday’s contest. New arrival Matt Harvey (the Mets' former "Dark Knight") tossed four scoreless innings on Friday. The pitching matchup: Homer Bailey (0-5, 5.61 ERA) takes to the mound for Cincy up against LA's Ross Stripling (0-1, 1.93 ERA). Bailey lost his second straight start last Monday, allowing six runs on eight hits in four innings versus the New York Mets. The Reds have lost all eight of his starts in 2018 and he has given up nine HRs and 18 runs over 19 2/3 innings across his last four outings. Bailey is 4-4 with a 4.57 ERA in 10 career starts against Los Angeles, including 3-2 with a 3.69 ERA in five outings at Dodger Stadium. Stripling pitched four scoreless innings in a start last Sunday against San Diego, allowing four hits with five strikeouts (LA lost 3-0). He has worked primarily out of the bullpen this season but moved into the rotation following injuries to Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu. This marks Stripling's third start of the season, after coming out of the bullpen in 11 other games.The pick: There is cause for concern in LA, as the Dodgers have dropped five of their past six games, with four of those losses coming against the Reds and San Diego Padres, owners of the two worst records in the NL! "Keep grinding," Roberts said. "That's all we can do." He's right about that. The good news is that LA faces Bailey, whose minus-$805 moneyline mark ranks second-worst in MLB in 2018 (about 200 different starters). Bailey may be one of just two active pitchers in the major leagues with multiple no-hitters but his "no-hit days" are over. Make LA a 6* play. |
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05-11-18 | Twins v. Angels -167 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -167 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Angels hit three HRs early to grab a four-run lead but saw that lead disappear before a sacrifice fly in the sixth inning helped lead them to a 7-4 triumph. Japanese two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani also went deep and added an RBI double as he has hit safely in 14 of the 16 games in which he served as designated hitter (.354 BA / 5 HRs / 16 RBI). LA's win in the opener of this four-game series vs. the visting Twins has them percentage points ahead of the Houston Astros for first-place in the AL West (Angels are 23-14, .22 and the Astros are 24-15, .615 ). Minnesota saw its five-game winning streak come to an end, despite Brian Dozier going 4-for-4 (he had half of the Twins' eight hits), including a three-run HR. The Twins are just 15-18 but also only 1 1/2 games back of the first-place Indians in the AL Central. The pitching matchup: Lance Lynn (1-3, 7.28 ERA) takes teh mound for Minnesota and lefty Tyler Skaggs (3-2, 3.08 ERA)( gets the nod for LA. Lynn came to the Minnesota Twins with a solid resume from his years in the National League. He spent six seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals, compiling a 72-47 mark in that span, which led to him signing a one-year, $12 million contract with the Twins in March. Lynn posted an 8.37 ERA over five starts in April, surrendering five or more runs in four of the outings (he was 0-3 and the team, 0-5). However, Lynn posted his elusive first victory Saturday in Chicago, limiting the White Sox to two runs on eight hits and struck out seven in six innings in an 8-4 win. Lynn made his only career start against the Angels while with St. Louis in 2013, when he yielded five runs and nine hits over six innings in a loss on the road. Skaggs has allowed fewer than three runs in each of his last three starts, including a no-decision at Seattle on Saturday in which he gave up two with seven strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings (he's 1-1 and the team 1-2 in that span). Skaggs has struggled at home this season, going 0-2 while surrendering 10 runs over 14 1/3 Innings in three starts (6.28 ERA). This marks Skaggs' 65th start of his career, but will be facing Minnesota for the first time.
The pick: Not sure why Skaggs has struggled so much at home, as he owns a 1.14 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in four road starts. Lynn hasn't adjusted well to the AL and comes in not only with a bloated ERA but a 1.96 WHIP, while opponents are batting .299 against him. Make the Angels an 8* play. |
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05-11-18 | Mets +1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Mets opened 11-1 but open a three-game series in Philadelphia with the Phillies having lost 16 of their last 23 games, including eight of nine to fall to 18-17. Philadelphia lost four of five to open the season but have made a solid turnaround since then, as the Phillies are now 22-15 overall (that's a 21-11 run), after capping a four-game sweep of San Francisco with a 6-3 win on Thursday. The pitching matchup: The Mets will send lefty Steven Matz (1-3, 4.23 ERA) to the mound and Philly counters with 2015 Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta (3-1, 3.15 ERA). Matz suffered a disastrous seven-run outing on April 25 but rebounded with his first quality start of the season in Saturday's 2-0 loss to Colorado. He allowed just one run on three hits in six innings. The 26-year-old had his start pushed back due to a stiff back and while allowed a first-inning HR (his 6th in 27 2/3 innings), he settled down. Matz pitched well in his lone encounter versus Philadelphia, permitting two runs on four hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 3-1 setback on Aug. 12. Arrieta missed Philadelphia's first series versus New York, as he worked himself into shape after signing a three-year, $75 million contract in March. He will be back on the mound Friday night for his seventh start in a Phillies uniform. He was part of a pitchers' duel in his last outing, facing Max Scherzer and the Washington Nationals (he allowed just one run on two hits and two walks last Sunday in six innings). Arrieta enjoyed a three-start winning streak before getting blitzed against Miami on April 30, but rebounded at Washington on Sunday. He has posted a 2-2 mark with a 2.30 ERA in seven career appearances versus the Mets. |
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05-10-18 | Brewers v. Rockies -145 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -145 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Colorado Rockies had ripped off six consecutive victories before dropping an 8-0 decision in the second of a two-game interleague series against the Los Angeles Angels last night. Colorado had allowed two runs or less five times during its six-game run but allowed eight runs on 12 hits in the loss. Colorado also saw its franchise-record string of quality starts snapped at nine in Wednesday's defeat. Meanwhile, Milwaukee capped a 2-3 homestand with a 6-2 loss to Cleveland on Wednesday. The 21-16 Brewers are in a four-way dogfight for first place in the National League Central, with the Cards, Pirates, Brewers and the Cubs are all within one game of each other. The Rockies are also 21-16 but 3 1/2 games back of the D-backs in the NL West. The Brewers open a 10-game road trip with tonight's game in Colorado, while the Rockies will conclude a six-game homestand with this four-game weekend series against Milwaukee. |
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05-10-18 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Yankees found themselves 7 1/2 games behind the Red Sox on April 20. Boston's 17-2 run allowed them to seize control of the American League East early on However, Boston's gone 8-9 since that blistering start, while the Yankees have utilized a 17-1 run to take over the top spot in the division (a 2-1 loss to Houston on April 30 being the only blemish). The Yankees now look to make it 18 of 19 and complete a three-game sweep of the Red Sox when the American League East rivals meet Thursday in the Bronx. Stanton's two HRs led the way to a 3-2 win on Tuesday and last night, Brett Gardner and Aaron Judge combined for six hits, six runs and five RBI, including four on consecutive hits - Gardner's two-run triple and Judge's two-run homer - against Boston closer Craig Kimbrel in an eighth-inning rally that lifted New York to a 9-6 victory. "They're playing good baseball," Kimbrel said. You think? Beside the 17-1 run, the Yankees are on their second eight-game winning streak of the season and their 11-game home winning streak is the longest since a 12-game run from April 25-June 1, 1985.
The pitching matchup: It's a battle of lefties on Thursday, as Eduardo Rodriguez (3-0, 5.29 ERA) goes for the Red Sox, opposed by CC Sabathia (2-0, 1.39 ERA) of the Yankees. Rodriguez posted three straight quality starts in the middle of April but has given up five runs in each of his last two outings. He struck out 10 in six innings but served up three HRs in his last start Saturday at Texas. He is 4-2 with a 2.96 ERA in nine starts against the Yankees. Sabathia is coming off a successful 2017, when the Yankees went 19-8 in his 27 starts, giving him MLB's 4th-best moneyline mark at plus-$1163. He is 2-0 with a 0.39 ERA in four starts since coming off the disabled list April 19 (Yankees are 4-0), including six scoreless innings and a season-high seven strikeouts against Cleveland on Friday (he got a no-decision in NY's 7-6 win). He has not allowed a HR in each of those four starts and has issued only three walks over his last five outings. The 37-year-old is 17-13 with a 4.12 ERA lifetime versus the Red Sox. |
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05-09-18 | Astros -163 v. A's | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The defending World Series champs began the 2018 season 16-7 but hit a rough spot but began this week at just 21-15 (5-8 run) as it visited Oakland for a three-game series against the A's. Houston opened May by losing five of its first six contests this month but has collected 32 hits while outscoring Oakland 20-4 in the first two games of the series. The Athletics managed only six hits in Tuesday's setback as they fell to 3-2 on their six-game homestand and to 18-18 on the season. The Astros will be looking for a sweep this afternoon after they followed up a 16-2 shellacking of the A's on Monday night with a 4-2 victory behind a home run by Alex Bregman and a combined six-hitter from four pitchers. The pitching matchup: Gerrit Cole (3-1, 1.42 ERA) takes the mound for Houston and will be opposed by Oakland's Daniel Mengden (2-3, 4.30 ERA). Cole was acquired from the Pirates in the off-season and his first season in Houston has been a unqualified success thus far. He has allowed only nine runs (eight earned) and 26 hits while registering 77 strikeouts and issuing only nine walks over 50 2/3 innings in seven starts (Astros are 6-1 in his starts). He is coming off his second career complete game and first shutout, as he fanned a season-high 16 batters and walked just one while tossing a one-hitter at Arizona on Friday. Cole has made just two career starts against Oakland, going 0-1 with a 3.29 ERA in two career starts. Mengden has allowed just one run in three of his last four starts but has won only one of those outings. All three of those outings took place at home, where he is 1-10 with a 5.32 ERA in 16 career starts. What's more, Mengden is winless in five career starts against Houston, going 0-3 with a 7.23 ERA (A's are 1-4 in those starts).
The pick: This is just a "pitching mismatch," with the red-hot Cole facing Mengden. Mengden was rocked at Houston on April 28 in an 11-0 Astros win, allowing five runs (four earned) in just 2 1/3 innings. Why would he do better here at home, where his ERA is 5.32 in 16 career home starts? Cole and the Astros roll. make Houston an 8* play. |
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05-09-18 | Angels v. Rockies -144 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -144 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rockies surprised almost all observers by going 87-75 last season to earn a wild card spot, after entering 2017 on a run of six consecutive sub-.500 seasons. Colorado closed April on a three-game losing streak but they have been unbeatable so far in May. Colorado looks to extend its month-opening winning streak to seven games when it hosts the Los Angeles Angels on Wednesday afternoon for the finale of its two-game interleague series. The Rockies finished their 6-3 road trip with five consecutive victories before returning home to post a 4-2 win over the Angels on Tuesday. Los Angeles managed only six hits and was kept off the scoreboard for the first seven innings as it dropped to 2-2 on its five-game road trip. The Rockies are now 21-15, having closed within 3 1/2 games of the first-place Arizona in the NL West. As for the Angels, after a 13-3 start, they are 8-11 since, checking in at 21-14 (a half-game behind the first-place Astros in the AL West). |
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05-08-18 | Mets v. Reds -138 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The NY Mets opened the season 11-1 but they just recently finished a wretched homestand with Sunday's 3-2 loss to the Rockies. New York had opened last week by getting swept by the Braves and then got swept by the Rockies. After an 0-6 homestand, the 17-1 began a six-game road trip last night, starting beginning with the first of three against the Cincinnati Reds on Monday night. The Mets had been outscored 34-11 during their disastrous 0-6 homestand and had dropped 14 of their last 20 after taht blistering 11-1 start to the season, opening the new week at 17-15. However, good news came New York's way in that its opponent from Monday-Wednesday was the sad-sack Cincinnati Reds, who were tied with Baltimore for the worst record in the majors at 8-26. As has been the case all too often for the Cincinnati Reds this season, Great American Ball Park has been cure for whatever was ailing the other team's offense prior to that series. New York scored in only six of the 54 innings it played during its 0-6 homestand, getting shut out three times. The Mets had totaled just 11 runs (over six games), seven of which came in one game. However, the Mets pushed across at least one run in each of the first five innings of their series-opening 7-6 victory on Monday. The Reds fell to 8-27, giving them MLB's worst record, as the 8-26 Orioles were idle on Monday. The Reds also fell to 4-15 at home, where they have allowed HRs (37) than any team in MLB, while allowing a National League-worst 5.74 runs per game in those 19 home contests. The pitching matchup: The Mets will send lefty Jason Vargas (0-2, 16.20 ERA) to the mound and teh Reds will counter with Luis Castillo (1-4, 7.01 ERA). Vargas won a career-best 18 games and was an All-Star for the first time last season with Kansas City. He cashed in by signing a two-year, $16 million deal over the winter and teh Mets had hoped he would eventually be the No. 3 starter behind Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. The veteran underwent surgery on his hand back on March 20 (he suffered a broken right hand on March 16) and returned to the mound in his season debut on April 28, giving up nine runs over 3 2/3 innings as the Mets fell to the San Diego Padres 12-2. He was then tagged for six runs on 11 hits in last Thursday's 11-0 loss to Atlanta. Right-handed hitters are batting .500 with three HRs in 30 at-bats against Vargas, who last faced Cincinnati in 2006 (note: he is 1-0 with a 5.23 ERA in two career starts against the Reds). Castillo will make his second straight start at home, after five consecutive road ones. He is coming off a loss to Milwaukee on Wednesday but one in which he allowed just two runs on nine hits while striking out seven in six innings. The outing was an encouraging one, as he had mustered only one quality start over his first six appearances. Castillo is 1-6 with a 4.02 ERA in nine career starts at Great American Ball Park entering his first career matchup against the Mets. The pick: Tonight's starting pitchers will own a combined 23.21 ERA when they take the mound tonight (over?) and it's true that the Mets are 19-3 in their last 22 meetings against the Reds, outscoring them 119-74. It's also true that Cincinnati's 8-27 mark through 35 games is the worst start in the majors since Detroit had the same record in 2003. However, I see nothing from Vargas that makes me want to back him. Meanwhile, Castillo is coming off a 3-1 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers last Wednesday, his best effort in a disappointing-to-date season. Make Cincy a 10* play. |
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05-07-18 | Mets v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The NY Mets opened the season 11-1 but the losses, both on and off the field, are piling up. The Mets finished a wretched homestand with Sunday's 3-2 loss to the Rockies. New York opened last week by getting swept by the Braves and then got swept by the Rockies. After an 0-6 homestand, the Mets head out on the road at 17-15 to begin a six-game road trip beginning with the first of three against the Cincinnati Reds on Monday night. The Mets were outscored 34-11 during a disastrous 0-6 homestand and have now dropped 14 of their last 20 after a blistering 11-1 start to the season. More bad news is that Yoenis Cespedes left Sunday's 3-2 loss to Colorado due to soreness in his right quadriceps and told reporters he was unsure of his availability for the series opener in Cincinnati. Also, Jacob deGrom, who was expected to start Monday for New York, was placed on the 10-day disabled list to allowed more time to rest his hyperextended elbow. The good news for the Mets is that their opponent the next three games is the sad-sack Cincinnati Reds, who are tied with Baltimore for the worst record in the majors at 8-26. The pitching matchup: P.J. Conlon (NR) will make his major league debut for the Mets and go up against Homer Bailey (0-4, 4.81 ERA). Conlon was recalled from Triple-A Las Vegas to make his major league debut and he'll also go into the history books, becoming the first Irish-born player to reach the bigs since 1945. With deGrom expected to start next Sunday at Philadelphia, it figures to be a one-game audition for Conlon, who is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in five starts this season at Las Vegas. He has allowed only one HR but opponents are batting .310 against him. Bailey owns two career no-hitters but is 66-67 in his career with a 4.43 ERA. He endured some hard-luck losses at the outset of the season after registering three quality starts in his first four outings but he has regressed over the past two weeks. After a pair of no-decisions, he was tagged for five runs on six hits over five innings in a loss to Milwaukee on Tuesday. Bailey, who has surrendered six HRs over his last three starts. Bailey is 0-4 and the Reds 0-7 in all of his 2018 starts minus-$700 vs. moneyline mark. Bailey is 1-4 with a 6.49 ERA lifetime versus New York. The pick: At first blush, with these two starters, one could say "over" fairly easily. However, the Mets come off an 0-6 homestand being held to two runs or fewer five times, including three shutouts. As for the Reds, they average 3.91 RPG (24th) plus rank 25th in OPS (.684) and 28th in HRs (27). Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-06-18 | Tigers v. Royals -138 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: The Kansas City Royals went to back-to-back World Series, losing in seven games to the Giants in 2014 and then beating the Mets in five games in 2015. However, that seems like 'light years' ago, as KC came into the 2018 season off back-to-back years of 81-81 and 80-82 records. Expectations were even lower entering this season and unfortunately, those low expectations have been met. The Royals opened their four-game home series with the Tigers at 8-22, having gone 0-8-2 in 10 previous series this season. KC did win the first two games of the set but a ninth-inning rally came up short in Saturday's 3-2 setback. The loss snapped their four-game home winning streak and gave the Tigers a chance to salvage a split of the series in Sunday's finale. Detroit ended a two-game skid when Shane Greene worked out of a ninth-inning jam, giving the Tigers a modest 14-18 start to the 2018 season. The pitching matchup: Detroit lefty Matthew Boyd (1-2, 2.48 ERA) takes the mound for the Tigers and will go up against KC's Jakob Junis (3-2, 3.29 ERA). This marks Boyd's sixth start of 2018 and while he owns just one win, he's pitched well. He's allowed a modest 23 hits over 29 innings, has struck out 21 and walked just eight plus opponents are batting only .217 against him. Note that over Boyd's last nine starts (dating back to September 12, 2017), he has a 2.47 ERA with 42 strikeouts in 54 2/3 innings, while opponents are hitting .204 off him in that span. Junis has recorded quality starts in four of his six outings in 2018, including a no-decision at Boston last time out. He held the Red Sox's powerful lineup to two runs with five strikeouts over six innings in a bounce-back outing after giving up five HRs in his previous start against the White Sox, a 6-3 loss. Like Boyd, Junis has been tough to hit so far this season, holding opponents to a .199 batting average in his first six starts. The pick: A closer look reveals that Boyd has struggled against the Royals, going 2-5 with a 7.05 ERA in 10 career starts against KC. In stark contrast, Junis is 4-1 with a 3.67 ERA in five games (four starts) against Detroit, including two wins this season in which he's posted a 1.20 ERA. The 'kicker' is this. Boyd owns a 10.53 ERA in five career Kauffman Stadium starts plus a 14-24 record with a 5.20 ERA in 64 games (60 starts) in the majors. Make KC a 10* play. |
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05-06-18 | Indians v. Yankees -135 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Yankees were just 9-9 through April 20 and there was plenty of any talk that the latest edition of "The Bronx Bombers" were dare we say, "underachievers ." So much for that New York has taken the first two of this weekend three-game home series with the Indians, giving them 14 wins in their last 15 games. The team's 23-10 start is its best since 2003 and the Yanks go for a home sweep of the Indians, looking to extend their home winning streak to nine games . Meanwhile, the "underachieving" 17-16 Indians have dropped six of their last nine overall. The good news for Cleveland is that they play in the AL Central, a division in which no other team owns a winning record. The pitching matchup: Mike Clevinger (2-0, 2.82 ERA) takes the mound for Cleveland and he will be opposed by New York's Domingo German (0-1, 3.77 ERA). Clevinger had a breakout season in 2017, going 12-56 (3.11 ERA) in 27 appearances (21 starts in which Cleveland went 14-7). He has made himself at home on the road by winning 10 of 15 decisions with a 3.28 ERA in 23 career away contests, including a pair of scoreless starts this season. German earned his first major-league start following four scoreless innings of relief versus Houston on May 1, after Jordan Montgomery exited with a left flexor strain after one inning. That injury is expected to sideline Montgomery for as many as two months, meaning German, who has made five relief appearances in 2018, will have an opportunity to pitch himself into the rotation. The pick: Clevinger owns impressive numbers on the road but will be severely tested by this New York lineup. The Yankees rank first in runs scored at 5,76 RPG (that number jumps to 6.61 RPG at Yankee Stadium), while ranking 3rd in OPS (.782) and HRs (43). How does one buck the Yankees here? The Yankees' 14-1 stretch is its best 15-game run since also going 14-1 from June 24 to July 12, 1998, during their 114-win season. Meanwhile, Cleveland has dropped its last four visits to New York (including the playoffs) and five straight games overall to the Yankees. The Indians are 1-for-10 with runners in scoring position in this series, so expect German's 13th major league appearance (first start) to be a "lucky 13th!" Make the Yankees an 8* play., |
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05-05-18 | Giants v. Braves -148 | Top | 11-2 | Loss | -148 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The San Francisco Giants opened their three-game series in Atlanta against the Braves, playing their best baseball of the season. The Giants had won eight of their past 11 contests, moving above .500 at 16-15, for the first time since they were 4-3 back on April 7. Shortstop Brandon Crawford showed signs of life at the plate after an extended slump by snapping a 5-for-47 skid with two hits Wednesday and then collected three hits – including his third HR of the season – and drove in two runs in Friday’s 9-4 victory over the Braves, as the Giants won for the ninth time in their last 12. The loss halted an excellent run by the Braves, who had won five in a row after finishing a three-city road trip at 7-3 with a three-game sweep of the Mets at Citi Field on Thursday. The Braves absolutely dominated the Mets in that three-game road sweep, outscoring New York 21-2. Atlanta's 19-12 has them atop the NL East and puts them on pace to win 99 games this year, after averaging 71.5 wins per season the last four! The pitching matchup: Lefty Ty Blach (2-3, 4.10 ERA) thakes teh mound for the Giants up against the Braves' Brandon McCarthy (4-0, 3.09 ERA). Blach has pitched fairly well since giving up six runs in his second start of the season, posting a 3.54 ERA with 27 hits allowed in his past 28 innings over five starts, although the Giants are just 2-3. He beat the Dodgers on Sunday in his last outing, allowing two runs on six hits with one walk and four strikeouts in six innings. Blach beat Atlanta in his only career appearance, giving up two runs on six hits in 7 2/3 innings last season. Atlanta starting pitchers had not allowed more than one run in five consecutive starts, before the Giants torched Mike Foltynewicz for six runs in the second inning last night to take the series opener. McCarthy takes teh mound Saturday and he has provided the Braves even more than they had hoped for (a veteran presence in the rotation). He began the weekend tied for second in the NL in wins, after holding Philadelphia to one run on five hits with six strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings last Sunday, the third time in his past four starts he has allowed one run. However, he is just 1-3 with a bloated 7.34 ERA in seven career games (five starts) against the Giants. The pick: The Giants got the best of the National League East-leading in the series opener but let's not sell the Braves short. They rank second in all of MLB in runs scored at 5.68 per game, while ranking first in both team BA (.275) and OPS (.799). What's more, the Atlanta lineup has to be mna]made better by the addition of veteran slugger Jose Bautista. The 37-year-old former two-time American League home run champion doubled in his first at-bat for the Braves on Friday against San Francisco and will be back at third base for the middle game of the series on Saturday. "It makes (our lineup) that much longer," Braves manager Brian Snitker said of Bautista's addition. "Don't think people in that other dugout aren't aware of this guy when he's up there? I knew we were when he was playing against us the last few years." Make Atlanta an 8* play. |
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05-05-18 | Dodgers -185 v. Padres | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -185 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The LA Dodgers and SD Padres opened a three-game series in Monterrey, Mexico on Friday (San Diego is the designated home team), with the Dodgers recording the first combined no-hitter in franchise history. Walker Buehler and three relievers opened the series by delivering the Dodgers’ 23rd no-hitter in Friday's 4-0 victory. Chris Taylor and Kike Hernandez homered for Los Angeles, which has allowed a total of three runs during its three-game winning streak. The Dodgers will be without left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu until at least the All-Star break due to a severe groin strain, but Buehler already has proven to be a capable replacement, giving up a total of two runs over 16 innings in his first three starts. The Padres have now dropped 12 of their last 16 games and clearly miss Wil Myers, who landed on the disabled list for the second time this season last week with a strained left oblique. Eric Hosmer had his five-game hitting streak come to an end Friday. The 11-22 Padres are already 10 1/2 games back of the first-place Diamondbacks in the NL West. The pitching matchup: Kenta Maeda (2-2, 3.76 ERA) goes for LA and Bryan Mitchell (0-3, 6.07 ERA) for San Diego. Clearly, Maeda has a tough act to follow. He struggled with his command in Sunday’s 4-2 loss to San Francisco after entering the game with a total of six walks in his first five starts. He exited after allowing four runs on five hits - including a three-run HR by Evan Longoria in the first - and four walks in six innings. Maeda worked 5 2/3 innings and notched the win against San Diego on April 18, improving to 4-3 with a 4.72 ERA in 10 career games (nine starts) versus the Padres. Mitchell still is seeking his first win as a Padre after giving up four runs over 4 2/3 innings in Monday’s 14-2 loss to the New York Mets. He has failed to impress since being acquired from the New York Yankees during the offseason, issuing 23 walks over 29 2/3 innings in his first six starts (team is 1-5). “I think I’ve made improvements,” Mitchell told reporters. “The numbers may not reflect that, but I can tell the ball’s coming out of my hand better and the pitches are better.” The pick; I/m not sur just which "improvements' Mitchell is talking about. The Dodgers have won five straight NL West titles but have struggled early on (15-17 record has them six games back of the D'backs) but as noted, LA has won three straight (pitching staff has allowed only three runs all told) and should begin to get things straightened out. Another game with the Padres in Mexico (with the struggling Mitchell on the hill), seems like a pretty good opportunity to make it four in a row. Make LA a 6* play. |
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05-04-18 | Giants v. Braves -127 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -127 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Atlanta Braves have have won five in a row after finishing a three-city road trip at 7-3 with a three-game sweep of the Mets at Citi Field on Thursday. The Braves absolutely dominated the Mets in that three-game road sweep, outscoring New York 21-2 and they now lead the NL with 172 runs scored (5.77 per ranks 2nd in MLB) along with a plus-57 run differential. Thursday’s 11-0 rout. of the Mets pushed Atlanta's record to 19-11, putting them on pace to win 100 games this year, after averaging 71.5 wins per season the last four! The Braves return home for a three-game series with the SF Giants, who have won of eight of their past 11 contests, moving above .500 at 16-15, for the first time since the Giants were 4-3 back on April 7. The pitching matchup: The Giants turn to Chris Stratton (2-2, 3.90 ERA) in Friday's series opener, while the Braves counter with Mike Foltynewicz (2-1, 2.53 ERA). Stratton last took the mound last Saturday in the opener of Saturday’s doubleheader against Los Angeles Dodgers. He had allowed more than two earned runs just once in his first five starts before that game but got rocked six runs on six hits with four walks in just 1 1/3 innings. That effort was in complete contrast to him going 2-0 in his three previous outings (Giants were 3-0), giving up just three ERs on 10 hits with 17 strikeouts in 20 2/3 innings (1.31 ERA). Stratton made two relief appearances against Atlanta in 2016, not allowing a run in two innings. Foltynewicz has yet to give up more than two ERs in any of his six starts this season. He held Philadelphia to one on three hits with six strikeouts over six innings in a 4-1 victory last Saturday. Foltynewicz is 2-2 in five career starts against the Giants with a 4.45 ERA. The pick: The Giants and Braves are two of the hottest teams in the National League as they get set to meet Friday night and with the Braves in first place for the first time past April since 2014, their fans finally get a chance to see one of the reasons why in a home uniform. The Braves are a disappointing 2-4 in Foltynewicz's six starts in 2018 but that should (will?) change, as he not only owns a 2.52 ERA but he is also holding opponents to a .209 average this season. He's pitching too well for a team that ranks first in BA (.277) and OPS (.802) to not start winning. Make Atlanta an 8* play. |
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05-04-18 | Blue Jays -142 v. Rays | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -142 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tampa Bay Rays get set to host the Toronto Blue Jays tonight at Tropicana Field as the two AL East rivals begin a three-game series. The 13-16 Rays had Thursday off to absorb a series loss at the Detroit Tigers (Detroit took two of three), while the Blue Jays played 20 innings while splitting a doubleheader in Cleveland that ended just before midnight. The pitching matchup: Lefty J.A. Happ (4-1, 3.50 ERA) will get the start for Toronto while Tampa Bay, which continues to battle multiple injuries in its starting rotation, will get a spot start from right-hander Andrew Kittredge, after the team had initially indicated rookie Ryan Yarbrough would start. Kittredge is 1-2 with a 6.23 ERA in 2018. Happ didn't come close to repeating his excellent season of 2016 last year but he's off to a strong starts in 2018. He has at least eight strikeouts in each of his last five starts and fanned nine in seven strong innings while defeating Texas his last time out. He has quality starts in three of his last four outings and while he's not yet back to the form that saw him go 20-4 in 2016, he's beginning to make a believer of me. That said, he is just 3-3 with a 5.08 ERA in 14 games (13 starters) versus Tampa Bay, including a 6.27 ERA in eight career games (seven starts) at Tampa Bay. Kittredge pitched one scoreless, hitless inning Tuesday and again Wednesday, throwing 12 and 11 pitches, so it will literally be a bullpen day for the Rays, with Kittredge capped at about 30 pitches according to the Tampa Bay Times. Kittredge has faced Toronto once in his two years in the majors, when he threw 1 2/3 innings of scoreless, one-hit relief in August in a 7-6 loss to the Jays. The pick: Sure, Tampa Bay has won its last four at home and the Rays figure to have a definitive advantage in terms of rest (see above). However, it's hard to be confident of Tampa's pitching rotation for this game. Yarbrough had been sent to Triple-A Durham on Sunday, only to be recalled when Yonny Chirinos went on the disabled list with a forearm strain. Kittredge has now been announced as a replacement after Wednesday's game. Kittredge and Co. will face a Toronto lineup averaging 5.41 RPG and leading all of MLB with 48 HRs. Toronto is a 10* play. |
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05-03-18 | Red Sox -140 v. Rangers | Top | 5-11 | Loss | -140 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Texas Rangers open a four-game series against the Boston Red Sox at Globe Life Park in Arlington, Texas on Thursday. In contrast, this four-game series begins a 10-game road trip for the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox took two of three against one last-place club in Kansas City (AL Central) and get set to face another in Texas (AL West), as the owners of MLB's best record (22-8). The Rangers were crushed 12-4 at Cleveland on Wednesday to finish 3-3 on a six-game road trip and return home where they are just 4-12 (12-20 overall). The pitching matchup: Boston will send left-hander David Price (2-3, 3.78 ERA) to the mound on Thursday to oppose Texas lefty Mike Minor (2-1, 4.33 ERA). Price opened the season by tossing 14 scoreless innings in his first two starts,but he has been knocked around in losing each of his last two outings. He was reached for four runs on nine hits in a season-high 7 2/3 innings at Oakland on April 22 before Tampa Bay battered him for six runs over 5 2/3 innings last time out. Price is 4-5 with a 5.11 ERA in 14 career starts against Texas. Minor has been shaky on the road but solid at home, posting a 1-1 mark and allowing four runs in his three starts at Globe Life Park (2.25 ERA). He earned a 6-4 win at Toronto last time out, despite yielding four runs on nine hits over six innings, after pitching 5 1/3 innings of one-run ball in a no-decision in his previous outing versus Seattle. Minor has made six appearances (two starts) against the Red Sox, going 0-2 with a 3.63 ERA. The pick: Minor has pitched well at home but it's a small sample size (three outings). However, Texas (as noted) is just 4-12 at home to open the season, allowing 6.06 RPG. That hardly bodes well with the Red Sox coming to town, as Boston is 11-4 on the road in 2018 plus ranks second in both runs scored (5.67 per) and team BA (.272), while ranking first in OPS (.793). Yes, the Rangers won the last meeting against Boston at home on July 5 but that ended a six-game winning streak in the series in which the Red Sox had amassed 55 runs (9.17 per)! Make Boston a 10* play. |
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05-03-18 | Braves v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 11-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The NY Mets opened 2018 at 11-1 and have spent most of the season's opening five weeks atop the National League East. However, after dropping the first two of a three-game home series against the Atlanta Braves, they are now 'looking up' at the surprising 18-11 Braves in the division. Surprising actually understates what the Braves have done early on in 2018, as the team's current record puts them on pace to win 100 games this year, after averaging 71.5 wins per season the last four! The Braves have won the first two games, including Wednesday night, when Jason deGrom suffered a hyperextended right elbow while batting in the bottom of the third inning and left after tossing four scoreless innings in Atlanta's 7-0 victory. The Mets will likely learn Thursday just how seriously ace right-handed pitcher Jacob deGrom is hurt (more on that later). Getting back to the Braves, last night's win was the team's fourth in a row, moving them into first place in the NL East, a half-game ahead of the Mets. The pitching matchup: Mets lefty Jason Vargas (0-1, 22.09 ERA) is scheduled to face the Braves' Julio Teheran (1-1, 4.50 ERA) in the finale of this three-game series this afternoon at Citi Field. Vargas won a career-best 18 games and was an All-Star for the first time last season with Kansas City. He cashed in by signing a two-year, $16 million deal over the winter and figures to eventually be the No. 3 starter behind Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. The veteran underwent surgery on his hand back on March 20 (he suffered a broken right hand on March 16) and returned to the mound in his season debut Saturday, when he gave up nine runs over 3 2/3 innings as the Mets fell to the San Diego Padres 12-2. Vargas is 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two career appearances (one start) against the Braves but has not faced them since 2006. Teheran didn't factor into the decision last Friday, when he gave up three runs over three innings as the Braves lost to the Philadelphia Phillies 7-3. He left because of tightness in his right upper trapezius but felt fine while throwing this week. Teheran is 8-5 with a 2.44 ERA in 21 games (20 starts) against the Mets in his career. The pick: The Mets are 9-5 in games started by deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, who have combined to post a 2.46 ERA. However, New York is a more modest 8-6 when anyone else starts with the quartet of Vargas, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler combining to post a 5.93 ERA. Vargas will be facing an Atlanta lineup which leads all of MLB with a .273 team BA, while ranking third in both runs scored (5.55 per) and OPS (.787). The news has been pretty good lately for the Braves, who are in first place for the first time since April 14, 2015. Atlanta has gotten off to a hot start despite facing eight ace-caliber starters -- deGrom, Syndergaard, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Yu Darvish. Jose Quintana and Aaron Nola -- 12 times in the first 29 games. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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05-02-18 | Orioles v. Angels -143 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Angels opened the 2018 season 13-3 but quickly fell into a tailspin by dropping nine of their next 12 games. However, they halted their four-game slide last night with a 3-2 victory in the series opener against the Baltimore Orioles. Los Angeles squandered a two-run lead in the top of the ninth inning on Tuesday but Justin Upton singled home the decisive run in the bottom of the inning for the one-run win. The Angels have now won just four of their last 13 games and at 16-13, have slipped to third place in the American League West. Baltimore had slugger Mark Trumbo (quadriceps) in the lineup for the first time this season but he was hitless in four at-bats with two strikeouts. Manny Machado recorded two hits for the fourth time in his last five games to raise his major league-leading average to .366 but to no avail, as the Orioles have dropped seven of their last nine contests, tying them with the KC Royals for the AL's worst record at 8-21. The pitching matchup: Dylan Bundy (1-3, 2.97 ERA) takes the mound for the Orioles and he'll be opposed by the Angels' Andrew Heaney (0-1, 6.91 ERA). Bundy was 'lit up' in a 9-5 loss to Tampa Bay in his last outing, as he allowed eight runs - seven earned - and 11 hits in just 4 2/3 innings. That was quite a departure, as he had been superb over his first five outings of 2018, giving up just five ERs during the stretch (1.42 ERA ) while yielding five hits or fewer on four occasions. Bundy is 1-0 with a 6.48 ERA in two career appearances (one start) against the Angels. Heaney allowed two runs - one earned - and five hits in five innings of a no-decision against the New York Yankees in his last outing. The 26-year-old struck out nine batters, the second-best total in his career and he has 22 Ks in just 14 1/3 innings this season. Heaney owns a 7.59 ERA in two career starts against Baltimore. The pick: Bundy and Heaney have plenty in common. They are both former first-round draft picks from the state of Oklahoma and each has also had Tommy John surgery in the past five years. The Angels stumbled after a quick start but they are in way better shape than the Orioles, who are off to their worst start since 2010. After going 29-52 on the road in 2017 (with MLB's second-worst road moneyline mark of minus-$1989), Baltimore is off the the worst road start of any MLB team in 2018, going 3-11 away from Camden Yards. Make the Angels an 8* play. |
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05-02-18 | Phillies -156 v. Marlins | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The Miami Marlins opened the season going 7-18 through their first 25 games but have all of a sudden raised the outlook in South Florida on the strength of a season-high four-game winning streak. Meanwhile the Philadelphia Phillies, after starting 14-7, have seen their fortunes take a tumble with losses in four straight and six of eight overall. The 11-18 Marlins look for their first series sweep of the season on Wednesday when they wrap up the three-game set versus the visiting 16-13 Phillies. The Marlins won 2-1 last night on a walk-off single in the 10th inning and has now answered a miserable 3-15 stretch with wins in six of its last seven. In contrast, the Phillies' positive start has been dampened due in large part to an offense that has mustered just seven runs during the team's four-game skid. The pitching matchup: Aaron Nola (3-1, 2.58 ERA) gets the nod for Philadelphia and Jose Urena (0-4, 4.91 ERA) will go for Miami. Nola recorded his fourth consecutive quality start and second straight victory by overcoming a bumpy start in which he allowed three runs in the first inning before tossing six scoreless frames the rest of the way in Friday's 7-3 triumph against Atlanta. However, he posted just a 1-3 mark with a 7.59 ERA and 1.59 WHIP while permitting the Marlins to bat .308 against him in 2017. Urena posted a 14-7 mark in 2017 but his rough start to 2018 continued on Friday as he was handed the hard-luck loss versus Colorado despite yielding just one run on six hits over seven innings in a 1-0 setback. In fact, he now owns an 0-5 mark in eight starts since defeating the New York Mets back on Sep. 20 of last season (note: Miami is also 0-8 in those starts!). However, Urena pitched well in a pair of outings versus Philadelphia last season, permitting three runs in a 7-4 triumph on Aug. 22 before settling for a no-decision two weeks later despite allowing one run in seven innings. The pick: Aaron Nola of the Philadelphia Phillies and Jose Urena of the Miami Marlins each earned the distinction of Staff "ace" in 2017, as each led their respective teams in wins. However, while Nola has pitched well in 2018, Urena has fallen apaart. It's true that the Marlins are playing better right now than the Phillies but I'm taking Nola over the struggling Urena in this one, as the Marlins fail to get the sweep. Make Philly an 8* play. |
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05-01-18 | Padres v. Giants -121 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -121 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
The San Francisco Giants opened 8-12 through their first 20 games but posted a 6-5 victory in their series opener last night over the San Diego Padres, getting them over .500 at 15-14. The team has won seven of nine, including a 6-2 start to their current 10-game homestand. Their three-game series with the 10-20 Padres continues tonight. The Giants scored three runs in the first inning and then three more in the ninth to pull out the victory. Pinch hitter Nick Hundley delivered a walk-off two-run single against the team with which he began his career, giving him all six of his RBI this season over his last six contests. Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria each recorded two hits and drove in a run, with the latter improving to 5-for-13 with six RBI over his last three games. San Diego scored five times during the middle three innings to overcome its early deficit before falling apart in the ninth en route to its fifth loss in six contests. Only the 7-22 Reds own a worse record in the NL than San Diego. The pitching matchup: Tyson Ross (2-2, 3.64 ERA) gets the ball for San Diego and will be opposed by the Giants lefty Andrew Suarez (0-1, 6.75 ERA). Ross is coming off his shortest outing of the season, a four-inning effort at Colorado in which he allowed four runs on six hits and three walks en route to a 5-2 loss. He struck out to give him 31 in 29 2/3 innings this season but he has issued six of his 10 walks over his last two outings. Ross owns a 4-4 record and 3.24 ERA in nine starts and two relief appearances against San Francisco. Suarez is being recalled from Triple-A Sacramento to make the second start of his career, keeping the members of the Giants' rotation on their regular rest (San Francisco had to use two starters in a double-header against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday). He made his major-league debut on April 11, taking the loss against Arizona after allowing four runs on four hits (including two HRs) over in 5 1/3 innings. Suarez, who has gone 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA in three starts for Sacramento, struck out seven and did not issue a walk to the Diamondbacks. He has never faced San Diego. The pick: Suarez will be making only his second major league start but the good news (for San Fran bettors) is that the Padres have struggled against left-handed starters this season, hitting just .217. Last night's win was not only Giants' seventh in their last nine games but it also helped take some of the sting out of them losing three of four to the Padres in San Diego earlier this season. Another win here will 'soothe that sting' even more. Make the Giants a 10* play. |
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05-01-18 | Blue Jays v. Twins -138 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -138 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The Toronto Blue Jays have rebounded from losing six of seven to win back-to-back games Sunday (7-2 at home over the Rangers) and then 7-5 on Monday over the Minnesota Twins. Justin Smoak and Russell Martin homered last night, as the Blue Jays increased their season total to 40, second-most in the majors. Kevin Pillar carries a five-game hitting streak (7-for-18) into Tuesday’s contest while Teoscar Hernandez has hit safely in six in a row (7-for-24) for Toronto, which is 7-1 against ALCentral opponents in the early going. Nothing seems to be going right these days for the Minnesota Twins. Monday's loss was the Twins' 10th in their last 11 games, leaving Minnesota 2-11 since center fielder Byron Buxton went on the disabled list and 9-15 overall to start what was expected to be a special season in the Twin Cities. The pitching matchup: Marco Estrada (2-2, 6.00 ERA) takes the mound for Toronto, while Kyle Gibson (1-1, 3.33 ERA toes the rubber for Minnesota. Estrada has given up five runs in each of his last two starts, suffering a 5-4 loss against Boston on Thursday after managing an 8-5 road victory versus the New York Yankees on April 20. He has 23 strikeouts and nine walks over 27 innings but has served up seven HRs, four in his last two outings. Estrada is 3-2 with a 3.96 ERA in 10 career appearances (eight starts) against the Twins. Gibson allowed one hit and struck out 10 over six scoreless innings last time out but settled for a no-decision at New York (Twins lost 4-3). He is winless in his last four starts, permitting 10 ERs across 21 innings (4.29 ERA) since working six hitless innings in his season debut to defeat Baltimore, 6-2 at Camden Yards back on March 31. Gibson is 3-1 with a 4.95 ERA in six career starts versus the Blue Jays. The pick: Most are surprised by Minnesota's poor start but those Minnesota bats could wake up here vs. Estrada. Home runs have plagued the veteran this season, as he's allowed seven through five starts after giving up 31 in 33 starts a year ago. Toronto ranked 27th (of 30 MLB teams) in the moneyline standings last season (minus-$1775), while Minnesoat checked in fifth-best, at plus-$1148. Make the Twins an 8* play. |
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04-30-18 | Phillies -135 v. Marlins | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The 16-11 Philadelphia Phillies open a three-game series tonight against the host 9-18 Miami Marlins. Sunday's 10-1 rout by Atlanta means the Phillies have dropped four of six overall, after losing two of three to the Braves for the third time this season. Meanwhile,the Marlins posted their fourth win in five games with Sunday's 3-0 triumph over Colorado. but the NMarlins are still playing just .333 baseball. "Early in the season, we were finding a way to lose," Miami manager Don Mattingly told reporters. "To put a couple of series in a row together, that's the only way we're going to ever get marching down the road toward respectability." The pitching matchup: Jake Arrieta (3-0, 1.82 ERA) gets the ball for Philly and will be opposed by the Marlins' Dan Straily (2017: 10-9, 4.26). Arrieta Signed to a three-year, $75 million deal in teh off-season but didn't put his best foot forward in his first start of the 2018 season, exiting after four innings of a no-decision versus the Miami Marlins back on April 8. However, he's won all three of his starts since, allowing just three ERs while scattering 12 hits and striking out 13 in 20 2/3 innings. Straily is coming off the disabled list to make his first start of 2018, after being sidelined with a right forearm inflammation. He struck out 12 over 13 innings during three rehab starts and looks to provide a workhorse presence for Miami after logging a team-high 181 2/3 innings last season (was 10-9 with a 4.26 ERA in 33 starts) He owns a 4-2 career mark versus Philadelphia but a less-than-desirable 5.35 ERA and 1.78 WHIP while allowing the club to bat .338 against him (??). The pick: No one can be quite sure how effective Straily will be in his 2018 debut but we do know that Arrieta, who won the Cy Young award in 2015 and the World Series in 2016 for the Cubs, has looked sharp. The Marlins aren't playing any better at home (5-10), than they are on the road (4-8). Make Philly an 8* play. |
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04-29-18 | Yankees v. Angels -115 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Yankees sure weren't happy about being 9-9 through their first 18 games of the highly-anticipated 2018 season. However, the Yankees haven't lost a game in over a week and they look to complete a three-game sweep tonight in Anaheim against the LA Angels (on ESPN). New York scored five runs in each of the first two innings on Saturday, en route to an 11-1 triumph that extended its winning streak to eight games. New York hasn't lost since dropping an 8-5 decision in Toronto on April 20, dominating opponents during the winning streak by outscoring the competition 62-17 while allowing one run on four occasions. In contrast, the Angels' 2018 season got off to a 13-3 start but they've now lost eight of 11 overall, including seven of eight at home. The pitching matchup: CC Sabathia (1-0, 1.86 ERA) gets the nod for the Yankees and Tyler Skaggs (3-1, 2.96 ERA) for the Angels, in a battle of lefties. Sabathia's first three starts of 2018 resulted in no-decisions (Yanks were 1-2) but he is coming off his longest outing of the season, one that resulted in his first victory. He limited Minnesota to an unearned run and two hits over six innings on Tuesday in an 8-3 win. Only half of the eight runs the 37-year-old Californian has allowed this year have been earned, with three of them coming on three solo homers by Baltimore on April 6. The long-time vet has made 21 career starts against the Angels, going 9-9 with two complete games and a 3.91 ERA. Tyler Skaggs answered his worst start of the season (he allowed six runs and eight hits in 4 1/3 innings against Boston at home on April 18) with one of his best this past Monday. He scattered four hits over seven scoreless innings in a 2-0 victory at Houston. Skaggs has made 62 starts in his career but will be facing New York for the first time. The pick: The 17-9 Yankees have won eight in a row, matching their longest winning streak since a 10-game run in June 2012 and will trot out 2007 AL Cy Young winner CC Sabathia on Sunday, who has not allowed an earned run in his past two starts. Opposing him will be Tyler Skaggs, he of the 16-22 career record with a 4.46 ERA. That said, let it be noted that Skaggs has been matched against some of the best pitchers in the American League this season. In four of his five 2018 starts, Skaggs has been matched against Sean Manaea of the Oakland Athletics, Corey Kluber of the Cleveland Indians, Rick Porcello of the Boston Red Sox and Gerrit Cole of the Houston Astros. Manaea and Cole entered the weekend with the two lowest ERAs in the AL. Manea has also thrown a no-hitter this season and his four wins are tied for the AL lead among a group of nine that includes Kluber, the 2014 and 2017 AL Cy Young winner, and Porcello, the 2016 AL Cy Young winner. The Angels are 4-1 in Skaggs five starts this season and a win would make him 4-1 for the second time in his six-year major league career. I say he gets it, Make the Angels a 10* play. |
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04-29-18 | Dodgers -142 v. Giants | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -142 | 20 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dodgers and Giants are one of MLB's great rivalries but this weekend’s series might be just as newsworthy for its injury list as it is for the actual results. Giants second baseman Joe Panik landed on the disabled list Saturday with an injured left thumb that could require surgery, and both teams could be without several starters on Sunday, when the Dodgers, who lost Friday's opener 6-4, look to salvage a split of the four-game set. Playing without Panik and left fielder Mac Williamson (concussion), the Giants opened Saturday’s doubleheader with a 15-6 loss before bouncing back with an 8-3 victory in the nightcap. Los Angeles outfielder Yasiel Puig left the opener with a sore left foot after crashing into a wall and sat out the nightcap, but X-rays were negative and he could return Sunday. Outfielder Matt Kemp left Friday’s game with a tight left quadriceps but appeared as a pinch-hitter in Saturday's nightcap. The pitching matchup: Kenta Maeda (2-1, 3.10 ERA) will start Sunday's series finale for LA and the Giants will counter with lefty Ty Blach (1-3, 4.31). Maeda will be making his fifth start (LA is 2-2 in his first four) of 2018 in this one and made his season debut against the Giants back on March 31, earning the victory after registering 10 strikeouts over five scoreless s. innings of a 5-0 final. He settled for a no-decision against Miami on Tuesday, despite allowing just one run on four hits with seven strikeouts over six innings (LA lost 3-2). Maeda is 4-1 with a 4.40 ERA in seven career games (six starts) versus San Francisco. Blach worked five scoreless innings in a 1-0 win over the Dodgers back on March 29 but hasn't won since. He recovered from a case of food poisoning in time to face Washington on Tuesday and gave up three runs in four innings of a 4-3 LA win. He owns a 3-2 record and 1.90 ERA in nine career games (six starts) against Los Angeles. The pick: Blach has a nice history against the Dodgers but it's hard to get too excited about playing San Francisco. The Giants tied the Tigers for MLB's fewest wins in 2017 (64) plus owned MLB's worst moneyline mark, at minus-$3775. Both teams are off to sub-.500 starts this season but the team most likely to get things turned around is LA, which has won five straight NL West titles. Make the Dodgers an 8* play. |
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04-28-18 | Mets v. Padres -127 | Top | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The NY Mets posted a 5-1 victory in the series opener at San Diego last night. The win improves New York to 16-9, as the Mets have very early on looked as if they've put last year's injury-plagued 70-win season behind them. The Mets lead the NL East by a half-game (over the surprising Phillies) but have to be buoyed by the fact that they sit six games clear of the Nationals, who won the NL East last season and finished 27 games ahead of them. In contrast, the Padres are coming off a 71-win season in 2017 and the team's 9-18 start in 2018 has them on pace to win just 54 games! Eric Hosmer, the team's big FA acquisition in the off-season, went 0-for-3 with a walk in his return after a two-game absence due to family reasons and has produced only four RBIs in 88 at-bats (.250 BA & 2 HRs).. The pitching matchup: Jason Vargas (2017: 18-11, 4.16 ERA) will make his 2018 debut for the Mets and San Diego will counter with Joey Lucchesi (2-1, 2.70 ERA), making it a battle of lefties. Vargas won a career-best 18 games and was an All-Star for the first time last season with Kansas City. He cashed in by signing a two-year, $16 million deal over the winter and figures to eventually be the No. 3 starter behind Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. The veteran underwent surgery on his hand on March 20 and is back in the majors after throwing 66 pitches in Monday's rehab start. The 35-year-old is 2-1 with a 2.39 ERA in four career starts against San Diego. Lucchesi is coming off a rough outing in which he gave up four runs on five hits and four walks in five innings of a 4-2 loss to Arizona. However, he had put together three solid starts prior to that defeat, allowing just one ER over 17 innings (he was 2-0 and the team 2-1). The pick: I realize the Mets have high expectations for Vargas but is that realistic? Vargas has been around since 2005 and owns an 85-81 record with a 4.17 ERA. He's off a "career season" in 2017 but was limited to just 12 starts in 2015 and 2016. Injuries are nothing new to Vargas. He suffered a torn labrum in his hip in 2008. In 2013, Vargas missed time with a blood clot in his left armpit. The following season, he missed time following an appendectomy and in 2015 he suffered a flexor strain before having Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery. He's a huge question mark in my view. The 24-year-old Lucchesi will be facing the Mets for the first time. The Padres' fourth-round pick in the 2016 draft, has made five starts and is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA. He is the only Padres pitcher with a winning record. He leads all major league rookies in ERA and opponents' on-base percentage (.283), ranks second in innings pitched (26 2/3) and opponents' batting average (.229) plus ranks third in strikeouts (29). Make San Diego a 10* play. |
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04-28-18 | Reds v. Twins -143 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cincinnati Reds opened a MLB-worst 3-15 and that stumbling start cost manager Bryan Price his job. It was "business as usual" for interim manager Jim Riggleman in his first three games as the team's new skipper, as the Reds dropped all three games in St. Louis from April 20-22. However, Cincy's bats 'woke up in splitting a four-game series in Atlanta (Reds scored 19 runs in the two wins) and The pitching matchup: Sal Romano (1-2, 4.78 ERA) will take the mound for the Reds and he'll be opposed by the Twins' Jake Odorizzi (1-2, 4.50 ERA). Romano is coming off his best performance of the season Monday against Atlanta, allowing two runs (one earned) in six innings. It was his first quality start in four tries since his season debut, while his one walk and five strikeouts were both his best marks of the year. He has never faced the Twins but he was pummeled for five runs over four innings by Boston in his only career interleague start last season. Odorizzi was a regular part of Tampa Bay's rotation the last four years, winning 40 games while making between 28 and 33 starts each season. After yielding one home run over 16 1/3 innings in his first three starts, Odorizzi has surrendered five in his last two turns, including two in Monday's 14-1 loss to the New York Yankees. That outing came six days after giving up three HRs in five innings versus Cleveland. Odorizzi was charged with three runs across seven innings of a no-decision in his only career start against Cincinnati in June. The pick: The Reds owned the dubious honor of playing the worst baseball in the majors throughout most of the first month of the season but that 'title' looks as if it's shifting over to the Minnesota Twins. However, I don't believe the Twins are close to being as bad as the team has played lately and with the Reds off a 20-hit, 15-run game, this sure 'feels' like a good spot for Minnesota. Odorizzi has proven he can pitch regularly in a starting rotation (see above), which is something Romano has yet to do (Reds are 9-12 in his 21 career starts). Make the Twins an 8* play. |
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04-27-18 | White Sox v. Royals -131 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -131 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The Chicago White Sox and the Kansas City Royals began a five-game series on Thursday (doubleheader scheduled for Saturday to make up a postponement from April 1). Chicago's 5-16 start was the team's worst since 1950, with the White Sox having lost 14 of their last 16 games entering last night's game. Meanwhile, Kansas City opened this long weekend series just 5-17, entering having lost 12 of their last 14 contests. Chicago White Sox belted five HRs, two by Matt Davidson, while notching a 6-3 victory on Thursday. Welington Castillo, Yoan Moncada and Trayce Thompson also went deep as Chicago won for just the third time in 17 games. Davidson has hit seven HRs this season, with five coming at Kauffman Stadium. The White Sox are saddled with a 6-16 record, but half of their victories have occurred in Kansas City, where they swept a season-opening two-game series. Kansas City has now dropped 13 of its last 15 games and owns the American League's worst record at 5-18, including a 1-10 mark at home. The pitching matchup: Reynaldo Lopez (0-2, 1.50 ERA) will get the ball for the White Sox, while the Royals counter with lefty Danny Duffy (0-3, 5.26 ERA). It seems unfair that Lopez is winless in his four starts, as he's allowed just four ERs and 12 hits over 24 innings. In fact, Lopez hasn't yielded more than four hits in any of his outings but he has experienced some control issues with four or more walks in three of his starts. Good news for Chicago is that Lopez is 2-0 with a 3.44 ERA in three career starts against the Royals. Duffy had an excellent 2016 season (team was 12-3 with a 3.651 ERA and KC was 17-9 in his 26 starts, going plus-648 vs. the moneyline) but he couldn't repeat his 2016 season, going 9-10 with a 3.81 ERA last year. Duffy is not just 0-3 on the season but the Royals also have failed to win any of his five starts. Duffy was roughed up by Detroit in his last outing as he gave up six runs and 10 hits over 4 2/3 innings. He began 2018 on a bad note when Chicago's Abreu, Davidson and Anderson all went deep off him in the fourth inning on Opening Day as he allowed five runs and seven hits in four frames. Duffy is now 7-6 with a 4.47 ERA in 21 career appearances (19 starts) against the White Sox. The pick: It's difficult to explain Duffy's 2018 woes plus is it really possible the Royals are actually this bad? I won't 'chase the Royals' but will play them here. It's not often we see a game between two pitchers who each have yet to see their respective teams win any game in which they've started. The Royals are 0-5 in Duffy's starts and the White Sox are 0-4 in games started by Lopez. One pitcher HAS to break through here with at least a team win, if not an actual "W." Make the Royals a 10* play. |
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04-26-18 | Brewers v. Cubs -150 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Milwaukee Brewers led the National League Central (and the defending World Series champs) for most of the summer, but folded down the stretch. as the Cubs went on to win the division by eight games. The Cubs took three of four at Milwaukee earlier this month (April 5-8) but as the two rivals get set for another four-game set Thursday (this time at Wrigley Field), the Brewers enter on an eight-game winning streak that has them atop the NL Central with a 16-9 record (the Cards are in second, one game back). The Cubs just split two games at Cleveland but have won four of their last six. Still, the Cubs enter the series just a single game over .500 at 11-10, leaving the fourth in the NL Central, three games behind the Brewers. The pitching matchup: Chase Anderson (2-1, 3.25 ERA) takes the mound for Milwaukee and Kyle Hendricks (1-1, 4.09 ERA) does so for Chicago. Anderson opened the season winless in his first three starts (0-1 / team was 2-1) but has won his last two. He gave up a pair of HRs but not much else in a win over Miami last time out, allowing three runs and five hits over 5 1/3 innings. Anderson is 3-3 with a 3.67 ERA in eight starts in his career against the Cubs. Hendricks picked up his first win of the season Friday at Colorado, allowing three runs and five hits over five innings. He did not issue a walk after allowing seven in his first three starts but he did give up his fifth HR of the season. Hendricks is 6-4 with a 3.01 ERA in 16 career starts vs. the Brewers. The pick: The Milwaukee Brewers certainly come in on a roll have experienced plenty of positivity during their recent winning streak but they will begin their four-game weekend set at Wrigley Field without first baseman Eric Thames, who is expected to miss up to two months with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his left thumb. The Cubs were able to win three of four at Miller Park in early April and I see no reason for them not to be able to do the same here at Wrigley Field. That said, one should always take things one game at a time. Make the Cubs an 8* play here on Thursday. |
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04-26-18 | Braves -130 v. Reds | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
analysis soon The set-up: The Cincinnati Reds welcomed the Atlanta Braves to Great American Ball Park on Monday for the start of a four-game series with MLB's worst record (3-18). Cincy surprised the Braves with 10-4 and 9-7 (12 inn.) wins in the first two games, before the Braves won 5-4 on Wednesday. Atlanta got a boost from several of their talented young prospects. Outfielder Ronald Acuna, Jr. made his major-league debut in Wednesday’s 5-4 victory, contributing an eighth-inning single and scoring the game-tying run before third baseman Johan Camargo doubled home Ozzie Albies with the decisive run in the ninth. Albies and Camargo both made their major-league debuts last season. To cap the victory, rookie A.J. Minter earned his first save as the Braves moved to a surprising 13-10 record on the season. The Reds will try to take this series but despite wins Monday and Tuesday, are just 3-8 at home this season, allowing an average of 5.82 RPG. The pitching matchup: The Braves will send lefty Sean Newcomb (1-1, 3.74 ERA) to the mound and he will be opposed by the Reds' Homer Bailey (0-3, 3.68 ERA). Newcomb gave up three runs (two earned) in six innings against the Mets on Friday and has struck out six hitters or more in three of his four starts in 2018 (Braves are only 1-3 in those starts). Newcomb, whose lone victory this season featured six scoreless innings at Colorado on April 8, won his only appearance against Cincinnati as a rookie in 2017. Bailey has pitched far better than his record would indicate, as he has surrendered more than three ERs just once in five starts and is holding opposing batters to a .218 average on the season. He settled for a no-decision Saturday at St. Louis, giving up three runs on seven hits in 5 2/3 innings in a game the Reds would lose 4-3. He owns a 2-2 lifetime record with a 4.54 ERA in six career starts against the Braves but has not faced Atlanta since 2014. The pick: With the Braves off to an encouraging start, they've decided to speed up the timetable a little and push the future of the franchise into the present. Ronald Acuna Jr., rated the majors' best prospect by multiple scouting outlets and the winner of multiple minor league player of the year awards last season, is now on a big league roster. Acuna's spring training numbers (.432, four HRs & 11 RBI) solidified his status as the top prospect coming into this season other than pitcher-outfielder Shohei Otani of the Los Angeles Angels. Meanwhile, the Reds are now 5-19 and averaged 2.9 runs on 7.3 hits per game during a 3-18 start. However, they have scored 23 runs on 34 hits through the first three games of the series. That's the good news. The bad news is, Cincinnati relievers gave up two runs on six hits in four innings Wednesday, and its bullpen enters the series finale at 2-6 on the season with a 5.34 ERA. Make Atlanta a 10* play. |
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04-25-18 | Mets v. Cardinals -144 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mets won 90 games in 2015 and then made it to the World Series, before making the playoffs as a wild card team in 2016 with 87 wins. Therefore, last year's 70-win season was to say the least, a huge disappointment. New York has a new manager in Mickey Callaway and the team believes that it made wise off-season investments. The team's 70-92 mark in 2017 loosened the purse strings as outfielder Jay Bruce (three years, $39 million), third baseman Todd Frazier (two years, $17 million), left-hander Jason Vargas (two years, $16 million) and right-hander Anthony Swarzak (two years, $14 million) signed contracts. Bruce paid immediate dividends with a fast start to the season before the bottom fell out during a 1-for-22 stretch at the plate. Undaunted, Bruce has slowly regained his form by cashing in at the plate. he capped a three-hit performance with a HR in the 10th inning of a 6-5 triumph on Tuesday. The St. Louis Cardinals remained in the wild-card chase until game No. 159 last season. They've made winning seem like a birthright since the last round of expansion, as the Cards have made the playoffs in 12 of the last 20 years and have missed the postseason in back-to-back years just twice, 2007-08 and 2016-17. The team has no interest in seeing 2018 become a 'hat trick' and the team is off to a solid 13-9 start, as last night's loss was just its second in 10 games. The Mets are 15-6, having won eight of 10 road games in 2018, as the teams square off in the rubber match of this three-game series tonight. The pitching matchup: Lefty Steven Matz (1-1, 4.42 ERA) starts for New York, while Michael Wacha (3-1, 4.22 ERA) goes for St. Louis. Matz lost 5-1 to the Cards back on April 1, surrendering two HRs and three runs total in four innings. He also exited after just four innings in his last outing against Washington, although he had retired 10 in a row after serving up a three-run HR first. Matz has just two career starts vs. St. Louis and is 0-2 with an 8.64 ERA (ouch!). Wacha's 2018 debut 9March 31) was against the Mets and he allowed four runs (two HRs) over 4 2/3 innings of a 6-2 setback. However, he answered that outing with three straight wins, highlighted by a strong effort against Cincinnati on Friday in which he allowed season lows in runs (one) and walks (one) while going 6 2/3 innings in the 4-2 victory. Wacha owns a 4-2 mark with a 2.70 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in six career meetings with the Mets. The pick:The Mets have played better than the Cards so far but the Cards are slightly hotter at the moment (8-2 last 10) plus Matz has been awful in two career tries against St. Louis while Wacha has been very good against New York. Make St. Louis a 10* play. |
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04-25-18 | Padres v. Rockies -150 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Padres and Rockies opened a three-game series at Coors Field on Monday with San Diego winning 13-5. However, Colorado bounced back from that drubbing with an 8-0 shutout win on Tuesday to even this series. The rubber match of the three-game set goes this afternoon, as Colorado also tries to take a two-game lead in the season series (Rockies currently lead 5-4). The Rockies had allowed double digits in runs in three of their previous five contests and nine in another, so Kyle Freeland combining with two relievers on the shutout, scattering three hits over seven innings, was a welcome relief. Eric Lauer did not fare well for San Diego in his major-league debut, surrendering seven runs on six hits and four walks over three innings, The pitching matchup: Tyson Ross (2-1, 2.81 ERA) will get the ball for San Diego and Jon Gray (1-4, 7.09 ERA) for Colorado. Ross comes in off back-to-back starts, allowing just two runs (one earned) and eight hits while registering 15 strikeouts over 13 2/3 innings. He settled for a no-decision at Arizona on Friday, despite striking out 10 while keeping the Diamondbacks hitless for 7 2/3 innings before yielding a run-scoring double and exiting. The bad news here for San Diego is that Ross owns a poor 1-5 record and 3.54 ERA in 12 career appearances against Colorado. In stark contrast to Ross, Gray has been hit hard in each of his last three starts, going 0-3 while surrendering 19 runs (18 ERs) on 26 hits over 15 2/3 innings (10.34 ERA). His latest 'disaster' came on Friday, when he yielded seven runs - six earned - on eight hits and three walks in five frames against the Chicago Cubs. A bright spot is that Gray is 5-3 with a 2.88 ERA in 12 starts versus San Diego. The pick: Colorado is historically an outstanding home team but has opened the 2018 season at 4-7. Expect that to change and while San Diego is 6-6 so far on the road this season, considering that the Padres were 28-53 on the road last season, after going 29-52 the season before, we surely don't expect San Diego to be a .500 road team in 2018. I noted Ross' poor record against Colorado above and will add here that all five of his career losses against the Rockies have come at Coors Field. Meanwhile, Gray's only complete game of his career (a shutout!), has come against the Padres. Make Colorado an 8* play. |
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04-24-18 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -104 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -104 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up:The Philadelphia Phillies last produced a winning season back in 2011 and over the previous five years, have averaged just 69.2 wins per season. However, here in 2018, the Phillies have raced off to a 14-7 mark, including the team's best home start since 1964 in going 9-1. Not to be outdone, the Arizona Diamondbacks' 15-6 mark matches their best 21-game start in franchise history. Winners of four in a row and 13 of 16 overall, the Phillies go for their eighth straight win at Citizens Bank Park on Tuesday when they play the opener of a three-game set against the Diamondbacks. Philadelphia recorded its first four-game sweep of Pennsylvania rival Pittsburgh since 1994 when the Phillies outlasted the Pirates 3-2 (11 inn.) on Sunday. Once again, not to be outdone, the Diamondbacks became the first National League team since San Francisco (2003) to win their first seven series of a season with Sunday's 4-2 home victory over the Padres. The pitching matchup: Arizona will send lefty Robbie Ray (2-0, 4.98 ERA) to the mound, while Philadelphia will counter with Vince Velasquez (1-2, 3.80 ERA). Ray is coming off his second straight no-decision on Wednesday, despite allowing just two runs and striking out nine in six innings versus San Francisco (D'backs lost 4-3 in 10 innings). Ray has been reached for five HRs and has walked 14 in 21 2/3 innings through four starts (Arizona is 3-1)..He owns a 2-1 mark and 4.56 ERA in four career outings versus Philadelphia. Velasquez opened 2018 by allowing seven runs (four earned) in just 2 2/3 innings of a 15-2 loss in Atlanta on March 31. However. he has responded with three straight quality starts, although his last outing resulted in a 7-3 loss at Atlanta (again!) on Wednesday. Note that he only allowed three runs on seven hits in six innings in that one. He has thrown six or more innings in each of his last three starts, after lasting that long only five times over the entire 2017 season (starts). Velasquez has not allowed an earned run and has 11 strikeouts in 8 2/3 innings over three career appearances (just one start) against Arizona. The pick: It should not be ignored that Arizona has enjoyed success in Philadelphia, winning seven straight contests by a combined score of 37-14. However, let's also not ignore that this year's Philly team is a "horse of a different color!" Philadelphia starting pitchers have permitted three runs or fewer in each of their last 12 outings, with Velasquez accounting for three of them. Lastly, there is the Phillies' 9-1 home record here in 2018, where they've outscored the opposition by an average of 6.20-to-2.10 RPG. Make Philly a 10* play. |
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04-24-18 | Twins v. Yankees -128 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2018 New York Yankees were expected to be the second coming of the legendary 1927 Yanks but New York found itself a modest 9-9 before ripping off three wins in the last three games. New York's offense is beginning to flex its muscle, as four players homered and every starter scored at least one time for the Yankees in a 14-1 win in the series opener vs. the Twins on Monday (Yanks have outscored opponents 28-3 during its three-game run). Last night's blowout was Minnesota's fourth straight defeat. The now 8-9 Twins are below .500 for the second time this season and during the skid, are getting outscored 40-15 while pitching to a 10.43 ERA. The pitching matchup: The Twins will look to end their skid with Jose Berrios (2-1, 1.63 ERA) taking the mound up against the Yankees' CC Sabathia (0-0, 2.70 ERA). Berrios is unscored upon in three of his first four starts of 2018, after limiting Cleveland to three hits over seven scoreless innings on Wednesday. He has 29 strikeouts against one walk (he's faced 99 batters this season) and opponents are hitting .155 against him. Berrios is 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA in two career starts against New York but he was reached for three runs on five hits and four walks in just 3 1/3 innings in his only prior outing at Yankee Stadium. Sabathia returned from an early stint on the disabled list Thursday at home against Toronto and gave up two unearned runs in 4 1/3 innings. He has completed five innings just once in his first three outings this season, while throwing an average of just 71 pitches. The 37-year-old defeated the Twins with six solid innings in their lone encounter last season and is 19-9 with a 3.16 ERA in 38 career starts against them. The pick: Berrios won14 games last season but his start in 2018 seems to me like a guy pitching over his head. Not so for the veteran Sabathia, who is coming off a 2017 season in which his plus-$1163 moneyline mark (NYY were 19-8 in his 27 starts) was the fourth-best among all starters last season. If CC was to get the win here, the Twins would be the third team he has at least 20 career wins against (also the Tigers and Royals). Why shouldn't we expect him to get the win? The veteran lefty is 12-2 with a 2.48 ERA in his last 17 starts against the Twins since the start of the 2007 season and 7-1 in 11 starts against them as a Yankees pitcher. Make the Yankees an 8* play. |
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04-23-18 | A's -132 v. Rangers | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Oakland Athletics begin a nine-game road trip with the opener of a three-game series against the Texas Rangers on Monday. The Athletics head to the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex having won six of their last seven games, after Sunday's 4-1 victory over the Red Sox. That followed Sean Manaea's Saturday no-hitter in which the A's won 3-0. Khris Davis continued his strong performance at the plate on Sunday, delivering an RBI single in the first inning and a three-run homer in the eighth to give him hits in 10 of his last 11 games. Posting back-to-back victories over the best team in the major leagues has to give Oakland (now 11-11), some confidence as the A's begin their nine-game road trip. Texas halted its three-game slide on Sunday with a 7-4 win over Seattle in which Joey Gallo and Isiah Kiner-Falefa drove in two runs apiece. The victory also ended a six-game skid at home for the Rangers, who have not seen much go right through their first 23 games of the season (Texas checks in at 8-15, already eight games back of the first-place Astros in the AL West). The pitching matchup: Oakland will send Trevor Cahill (1-0, 0.00 ERA) to the mound, while Texas will counter with lefty Matt Moore (1-3, 5.59 ERA). Cahill's 2018 debut debut came just this past Tuesday, when he picked up a victory over the Chicago White Sox after striking out eight and scattering five hits over seven scoreless innings. Cahill began the 2018 season with Triple-A Nashville after signing a one-year contract in March. He has enjoyed success against Texas in his career, going 10-4 with a 2.69 ERA in 17 career starts. His 10 victories are his most versus any opponent. Moore is coming off the best of his four starts this season, a win at Tampa Bay on Tuesday in which he allowed an unearned run and five hits over seven innings. Signing Moore off last season's horrific year was a head-scratcher. He was 6-15 (5.52 ERA) with the Giants and his minus-$1223 moneyline mark (Giants were 10-21 in his starts), was among the worst of all starters. He's had big issues at home in the early going, surrendering 13 runs (12 earned) on 19 hits and seven walks over 12 1/3 in three starts (8.76 ERA), all losses. The pick: Cahill looked sharp in his 2018 debut plus has that excellent career mark against the Rangers, so why not take the A's? After all, not only has Moore struggled badly in his first three home starts for his latest team but in five career starts against Oakland, he is 1-2 with a horrid 7.07 ERA. Want more? Texas is 3-10 at home to open 2018, allowing 6.38 RPG! Make Oakland a 10* play. |
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04-22-18 | Nationals v. Dodgers -170 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Dodgers have won five straight NL West titles and last season took Houston to a Game 7 in the World Series before losing. Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals have won four of the last six NL East titles, winning between between 95 and 98 games in those four division-winning seasons. The two teams entered the 2018 season as the favorites to win the National League pennant. However, April hasn't exactly followed the script for either club. The Nats opened their three-game weekend series with the Dodgers at 9-10 and the Dodgers checked in at 8-9. Washington won 5-2 on Friday, while LA rebounded with a 4-0 win last night.The two NL 'heavyweights' will square off tonight on ESPN in the rubber match of their three-game series, with the winner beginning the new week on Monday at .500 and the loser at two games under that mark. The Dodgers have won five of their last six contests overall, while the Nats are 3-2 on their nine-game road trip (Washington heads to San Francisco for three games beginning Monday). The pitching matchup: Jeremy Hellickson (0-0, 3.86 ERA) takes the mound for Washington and goes up against LA left-hander Alex Wood (0-2, 3.91 ERA). Hellickson made his Nationals debut on Monday against the New York Mets but did not factor in the decision after giving up two runs over 4 2/3 innings. He was signed to a minor-league contract in March after pitching for both Baltimore and Philadelphia last season. Hellickson is 69-69 (4.12 ERA) as he begins his 9th big-league season and 0-1 with a 6.88 ERA in four career starts versus the Dodgers. Wood bounced back from a rocky outing against Oakland by giving up just one unearned run and two hits over 5 1/3 innings versus San Diego this past Tuesday. He is still is seeking his first victory of 2018 despite limiting batters to a .186 average and recording 22 strikeouts against one walk. Wood has gone 4-3 with a 2.51 ERA in 10 career starts against Washington, including six scoreless innings at Nationals Park on Sept. 15. The pick: As far as primetime games before a national audience go, it is hard to do much better than the two best teams in baseball over the last six years. Los Angeles began the 2018 season with only four victories for its worst 13-game start in 24 years behind a mostly lethargic offense. However, the bats have 'woken up' with LA winning five of six. The Dodgers were a MLB-best 57-24 at Dodger Stadium in 2017 but are just 5-6 at home to open 2018. Look for a "return to form" shortly for LA and the Dodgers begin just that by taking this final game of their weekend series with the Nats. After all, the Nationals are only 7-13 against the Dodgers since the start of the 2015 season and Jeremy Hellickson isn't exactly a "stopper!" Make the Dodgers an 8* play. |
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04-22-18 | Pirates v. Phillies -128 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pittsburgh Pirates earned wild card bids in three consecutive years from 2013-2015, while averaging 93.3 wins per season.. However, the Pirates lost all three of those winner-take-all matchups. The 2016 (78 wins) and 2017 (75) seasons saw thew Pirates play sub-.500 baseball and 2018 began with few expectations for the franchise. However, the Pirates surprised most (all?) observers by opening with wins in 11 of their first 15 games. The team's fast start has 'hit a wall' as of late, as Pittsburgh's offense has been in a 'deep freeze.' Pittsburgh has lost five of its last six and the Pirates have manged to score a total of only five runs in the team's five losses. That includes them totaling just three runs in dropping the first three contests of their four-game series with the Phillies. The 13-7 Phillies improved to 8-1 at home with Saturday's 6-2 triumph, moving six games over .500 behind a thriving pitching staff (team ERA of 3.14 ranks 5th) and a young offense led by Rhys Hoskins (.328 / 4 HRs / 19 RBI). Hoskins homered and drove in four runs on Saturday. The pitching matchup: The Pirates hand the ball to Trevor Williams (3-1, 1.93 ERA), while the Phillies will try to polish off the sweep behind Nick Pivetta (1-0, 2.49 ERA). Williams has pitched very well, losing for the first time in 2018 his last time out. He only allowed two runs on four hits and three walks over six innings against the Colorado Rockies but took the hard-luck 2-0 setback. The 25-year-old has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any of his four 2018 outings. Williams lost his only start against Philadelphia last season, surrendering three runs and four hits in 5 2/3 innings. Pivetta is rolling along as well, allowing two or less runs in each of his last three starts. He has not factored in the decision in either of his last two starts, despite holding the Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves to a total of three runs in 12 innings and owns 21 strikeouts with just two walks in 21 2/3 total innings on the season. Pivetta is making his first career start against the Phillies. The pick: Pittsburgh's fast start seems to be quickly fading into the rear-view mirror, while the Phillies' first-year manager Gabe Kapler is riding good pitching and timely that is adding up to more confidence for his young team. Kapler is "working the numbers hard," trying to get playing time spread equally and the players are said to be feeling good about where they are at in 2018. No reason to buck the Philies here, as they are 8-1 at home, outscoring opponents on average, 6.56-to-2.11 RPG. Surely not with a Pittsburgh team which has scored just three times in losing the first three games of this series, while accumulating only 16 hits so far (.168 team BA!). Make Philadelphia a 10* play. |
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04-21-18 | Giants v. Angels -186 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The San Francisco Giants opened their three-game IL series with the Angels by taking Friday night's game 8-1. Jeff Samardzija came off the disabled list and tossed five scoreless innings in Friday’s 8-1 victory, but the real story was San Francisco's sudden power surge. The Giants had scored a total of only six runs over their previous four games (1-3) but Mac Williamson hit a two-run HR in his season debut on Friday plus Nick Hundley and Andrew McCutchen each homered .They provided a much-needed boost for the Giants’ offense, which entered the game hitting .154 (19-for-123) with runners in scoring position. The Angels have lost four in a row following a seven-game winning streak and need more production from right fielder Kole Calhoun, who was dropped to eighth in the order Friday and is hitting .192 after going hitless in three at-bats. Japanese two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani (.342 / 3 HRs / 11 RBI) had two singles while batting sixth and hopes to take the mound on Monday after leaving his last outing early with a blister on his right middle finger. The pitching matchup: The Giants will send lefty Derek Holland (0-2, 4.60 ERA) to the mound while the Angels counter with Garrett Richards (2-0, 3.60 ERA). Holland is making his fourth start for the Giants (team is 0-3) and he's seeking his first win with his latest team, after allowing three runs over 4 2/3 innings against San Diego last Saturday in a 5-4 team loss (he took a no-decision). The 31-year-old has appeared in more games against the Angels than any other team over his career, going 10-8 with a 5.21 ERA in 28 games (25 starts). Richards struggled with his control again last Saturday against Kansas City but earned the win after giving up one run on one hit over five-plus innings. The injury-plagued 29-year-old has walked at least three batters in each of his first four starts while striking out 24 across 20 innings (Angels are 3-1 in his 2018 starts). Richards has never faced the Giants but is 4-2 with a 1.42 ERA in 18 career interleague games (11 starts) and has limited Austin Jackson to one hit in 15 at-bats. The pick: San Francisco is 7-2 this season when scoring first and 1-9 in games their opponent scores first. If LA can score first....Sure, the Angels have been outscored 35-4 during their four-game losing streak but the team was off to a 13-3 prior to that. The bottom line here is that Holland has been less that impressive in his first three starts and Richards will face a SF lineup that comes in averaging only 3.11 RPG, ranking 29th of 30 MLB teams. Make the LAA a 6* play. |
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04-21-18 | Mariners -157 v. Rangers | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Seattle Mariners scored four runs in the ninth inning last night to win the series-opener over the Texas Rangers, 6-2. The team's ninth-inning splurge was timely, considering Seattle had scored just seven runs over its previous previous five games. Texas knows more than a little about a lack of scoring too, as the Rangers have scored two or fewer runs nine times this season in opening 7-14. Seattle sits at 10-8 after Friday's win The pitching matchup: Seattle lefty James Paxton (1-1, 4.57 ERA) gets the nod for the Mariners and will be opposed by Bartolo Colon (0-0, 1.45 ERA), a veteran who apparently has a lot left in his 44-year-old right arm. Paxton entered the season primed for a big campaign after the oft-injured lefty put together his best season in 2017, finishing with career highs in wins, starts (24), innings (136) and strikeouts (156). He was named the AL's Pitcher of the Month in July when he won all six of his starts. Paxton picked up his first victory of the season Monday when he gave up one run and three hits over six innings. He has now given up fa modest five runs over his last three starts (2.65 ERA) after being roughed up for six runs on six hits in 4 2/3 innings by Cleveland on March 31. Paxton is 2-4 with a 4.62 ERA in 10 career starts against Texas. Colon took a perfect game into the eighth inning of his last start against the Houston Astros, before allowing a double. That hit was the only one allowed by Colon in 7 2/3 innings but he charged with a run later in the inning for a no-decision in a game decided in 10 innings. Colon is making his fifth appearance (third start) for the Rangers and he has a stellar 0.70 WHIP while holding opponents to a .177 batting average. Colon has been around 'forever' and is 20-12 with a 3.84 ERA in 37 career starts against Seattle. The pick: The 44-year-old Colon flirted with a perfect game in his last outing, becoming the oldest pitcher to take a no-hitter into the eighth inning since Kansas City's Gaylord Perry at 44 years, 338 days on Aug. 18, 1983, at Baltimore. That said, it's VERY early and I am not buying into Colon having found the "fountain of youth." After all, Colon made 28 starts in 2017 (for Atlanta and Minnesota), posting a 6.48 ERA and 1.59 WHIP, while opponents batted .318 against him. In contrast, see above for a reminder of Paxton's 2017 season and remember he owns a 2.65 ERA over his last three outings. Make Seattle an 8* play. |
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04-20-18 | Nationals +132 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-2 | Win | 132 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Dodgers have won five straight NL West titles and last season took Houston to a Game 7 in the World Series before losing. Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals have won four of the last six NL East titles, winning between between 95 and 98 games in those four division-winning seasons. The two teams entered the 2018 season as the favorites to win the National League pennant. However, April hasn't exactly followed the script for either club. The Nats open their series with the Dodgers at 9-10 and the Dodgers check in at 8-9. Both teams have started to pick up the pace in the last week and the winner of tonight's game will climb back to the .500 mark. Washington scored 29 runs while opening the season with four straight victories but then totaled just 27 runs while dropping eight of its next 10. However, the Nationals have scored at least five runs in each of their last five contests, although they missed out on a road series sweep of the NL East-leading New York Mets on Wednesday when they surrendered nine runs in the eighth inning of an 11-5 defeat. Los Angeles began the 2018 season with only four victories for its worst 13-game start in 24 years behind a mostly lethargic offense. However, the bats have been red-hot during a four-game winning streak during which the club is averaging 9.3 runs per contest. The Dodgers began their surge by ending their 11-game skid against Arizona in convincing fashion Sunday ,before outscoring San Diego 30-10 over the next three days to sweep the Padres in San Diego. The pitching matchup: It doesn't get much better than this, as Washington's Max Scherzer (3-1, 1.33 ERA) squares off against LA's Clayton Kershaw (1-2, 1.73 ERA). Scherzer is a three-time Cy Young Award winner and was named the NL Player of the Week for his dominant efforts last week. He allowed just two hits while striking out 10 en route to his fifth career shutout on April 9 over the Braves (2-0). He then delivered an 11-strikeout performance against Colorado this past Saturday in which the only hit he allowed over seven innings was a two-run HR in a 6-2 victory. Scherzer is 3-4 with a 2.92 ERA against Los Angeles. Kershaw is a seven-time All-Star and two-time CY Young winner. He finally got the run support he had been lacking and earned his first victory in a 12-strikeout performance on Sunday against Arizona, giving up only a solo HR among the two hits he allowed over seven innings of a win. he's been moved up a day to fill in for the injured Rich Hill but will still be pitching on regular rest. Kershaw is 11-2 with a 1.97 ERA in 15 appearances (14 starts) against Washington. The pick: These two pitchers have combined to win five of the last seven NL Cy Young awards, so a pitchers duel is expected. Washington has fared better away from home this season (6-3 while averaging 6.00 RPG, compared to an unexpected 3-7 mark at home) and after going a MLB-best 57-24 at Dodgers Stadium in 2017, LA is just 4-5 at home to open 2018. Make the Nats an 8* play. |
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04-20-18 | Twins v. Rays -120 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Twins have not had a typical April. Minnesota saw four games postponed due to poor weather between April 8-15 and followed that up with a two-game series as the home team in San Juan, Puerto Rico vs. the Indians. Through it all, the Twins open a three-game series in Florida against the Tampa Bays Rays having won four of their last five games and with an overall record of 8-5. The pitching matchup: Lance Lynn (0-1, 5.00 ERA) will get the ball for Minnesota and Chris Archer (1-1, 7.84 ERA) goes for the Rays. Lynn was scheduled to make his third start of 2018 last Saturday, but weather postponements forced a reshuffling of the rotation and he finally gets a chance to get back on the mound in tonight's contest. The former Cardinal was pounded in his Twins debut (4 IP / 3 hits / 6 walks / 5 ERs) before limiting Houston to three hits and four walks over five scoreless innings with nine strikeouts on April 9. Lynn is 0-1 with a 3.77 ERA in three appearances (two starts) versus the Rays. Archer is considered Tampa Bay's ace but he has yet to post a quality start or complete more than six innings in his first four trips to the mound. What's more, he is coming off his worst performance. The two-time All Star recently gave up six runs in the second inning this past Saturday and ended up allowing seven over four innings with just two strikeouts in a 9-4 home loss to Philadelphia. The pick: The good news here for Minnesota is that this game (and the weekend series) is indoors and safely away from snow and any other potential obstacles. The bad news is that Archer has been dominant against Minnesota in his career with a 6-1 record and 1.84 ERA. Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash wants another series, after the Rays earned one over teh Rangers to open the week. "We have to own the fact that we're whatever our record is right now," Cash said after Wednesday's win. "We also can be somewhat satisfied that we are playing hard. It just hasn't gone our way." It"goes the Rays' way" tonight! Make Tampa Bay a 10* play. |
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04-19-18 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 7 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up:The 2016 Cubs won 103 games and the team's first World Series since 1908. Chicago struggled early on in 2017 but closed with a surge, while the Brewers faded. The Cubs won the Central Division with 92 victories and took down the Washington Nats in an NLDS before losing to the Dodgers in the NLCS. This year's team finds itself fourth among five NL Central teams in the early going with a 7-8 record. The Cubs have struggled at the plate and it sure hasn't helped that yesterday's postponement was the third postponement in four days due to inclement weather. It's been feast or famine for Chicago so far in 2018, as the Cubs have recorded only one victory when scoring fewer than five runs and are averaging 1.75 RPG in their eight losses compared to 8.7 in their seven wins. The Cubs will look get their offense going against the St. Louis Cardinals as the two longtime rivals wrap up an abbreviated two-game series. The Cards remained in the wild-card chase until game No. 159 last season but stayed at home for the postseason. St. Louis has made winning seem like a birthright since the last round of expansion, as the Cards have made the playoffs in 12 of the last 20 years and have missed the postseason in back-to-back years just twice, 2007-08 and 2016-17. The team has opened 10-7 and with a five-game winning streak is trying to make a statement that it has no interest in seeing 2018 become a 'hat trick' The pitching matchup: Weather permitting, the Cards will send promising right-hander Luke Weaver (2-0, 2.08 ERA) up against the Cubs' Jon Lester (1-0, 4.40 ERA). Weaver was pushed into the Wednesday starting assignment in place of Michael Wacha, who has struggled at Wrigley Field. Wacha will instead make his next start on Friday against Cincinnati on eight days rest. Weaver is showing why he was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, as he has followed an outstanding spring with three strong starts to begin the regular season. He has allowed four runs over 17 1/3 innings and has struck out seven in each of his last two turns. The veteran Lester is off to a up-and-down start with one excellent outing sandwiched between two sub-par efforts. He allowed four runs on seven hits over five innings in a no-decision against Pittsburgh last time out, generating only 14 swinging strikes. The pick: Runs can be tough to come by at Wrigley Field this time of year with inclement weather and the pitching matchup should also make scoring runs difficult, as well. Weaver owns a 2.08 ERA, an 0.98 WHIP, has a 17-5 KW ratio and opponents are batting just .197 against him in 2018. As for Lester, he has had a bumpy start but note that he owns a 2.30 ERA in 14 career starts against St. Louis. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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04-18-18 | Astros -157 v. Mariners | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: Brian McCann hit a tie-breaking two-run homer in Tuesday's 4-1 victory, as the Astros defeated the Mariners for the seventh time in eight meetings. Dallas Keuchel pitched eight innings in a 2-1 loss to the Mariners on Monday but Lance McCullers Jr. was able to earn a 4-1 win last night by allowing one run on one hit in seven innings with 11 strikeouts. The victory snapped the Astros' three-game losing streak to give them an 11-7 start in 2018 (Angels lead the AL West at 13-4). Seattle's Robinson Cano drilled his first homer of the season and the 302nd of his career, passing Rogers Hornsby for second place on the all-time list for second basemen, as the Mariners fell to 9-6. Seattle batters struck out 14 times on Tuesday and the club has now scored just four runs in its last three contests. The pitching matchup: Gerrit Cole (1-0, 1.29 ERA) takes the mound for Houston and Mike Leake (2-0, 3.50 ERA for Seattle. The defending champs acquired Gerrit Cole from Pittsburgh in mid-January and he as been sensational in his first three outings. Cole recorded 11 strikeouts in each of his first two starts and then increased the total to a career-best 14 over seven innings against Texas on Friday. However, he has only one win to show for his outstanding efforts, although the Astros have won all three of his starts. Leake did not factor in the decision against Oakland in his last start, after giving up three runs and seven hits over six innings. He's pitched well so far, limited opposing batters to a .221 average in three starts. Leake is 6-4 with a 3.29 ERA in 12 career appearances (10 starts) against the Astros. The pick: Cole has been everything and more for Houston so far. The Astros were counting on him bouncing back from a poor 2017 season with the Pirates in which he posted a career-worst 4.26 ERA and served up a whopping 31 HRs, well above his previous career high of 11. He owns not only a 1.29 ERA in his first three starts but also an 0.67 WHIP while holding opponents to a .141 BAA. He stood out in his lone career outing against Seattle by allowing one run and three hits back on July 27, 2016 in his only complete game in 130 major-league starts. Cole has joined Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan as the only pitchers in the past 110 years to start a season with 11-plus strikeouts in their first three starts of the season. That's some pretty good company. Make Houston an 8* play. |
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04-18-18 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -138 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -138 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Arizona Diamondbacks' 52-29 record at Chase Field helped them earn the NL's top wild card spot in 2017 and in the early going of 2018, the Diamondbacks have gone 6-1 at home which has Arizona atop the NL West at 12-4. Lefty Patrick Corbin kept San Francisco hitless until Brandon Belt recorded an infield single with two outs in the eighth inning and registered his first career shutout in Arizona's 1-0 win over San Franciscio in the opener of a three-game series last night. David Peralta delivered an RBI single to extend his hitting streak to six games, a stretch during which he has gone 9-for-24 (Peralta has hit safely in 11 of 13 overall this season). San Francisco (6-10) has now lost four in a row after opening its 10-game road trip with a 7-0 victory in San Diego, scoring fewer than two runs in three of the setbacks. The pitching matchup: Chris Stratton (1-1, 2.60 ERA) gets the ball for San Francisco and Arizona counters with lefty Robbie Ray (2-0, 5.74 ERA). Johnny Cueto returned to the mound after missing two starts while on the disabled list, and struck out 11 in seven scoreless innings in Tuesday's loss to Arizona. However, he is the only one of the Giants' top three starters to have pitched this season. No. 1 starter Madison Bumgarner is expected to miss another month with a fractured hand and No. 3 starter has yet to take the mound, although he is on track to make his first start of the season this weekend. Stratton earned a spot in the rotation with a solid spring and has pitched well with Madison Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija sidelined with injuries. He's allowed three runs or less in each of his first three starts and is coming off an outstanding performance at San Diego on Thursday, when he yielded just one hit over seven scoreless innings en route to his first win of the season. He has made three career starts against Arizona, going 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA. Ray has yet to lose this year despite a pair of subpar efforts, including a no-decision at San Francisco last Wednesday in which he gave up three runs on five hits and three walks over 4 2/3 innings. He was tagged by Colorado for seven runs (six earned) on seven hits (three HRs) and three walks over five innings in his season debut back on March 30 at home. However, Ray has been excellent against San Francisco in his career, going 4-1 with a 2.82 ERA in nine starts The pick: San Francisco's Stratton is coming off his best career outing, a 7-0 victory at San Diego in which he gave up only a single in seven innings) but he's pitching for a team which was a MLB-worst 26-55 on the road in 2017, losing $2762 against the moneyline (also a MLB-worst). San Francisco is 3-6 on the road to open 2018, while averaging a woeful 1.67 RPG. Arizona's Robbie Ray will be hard-pressed to match Corbin's Tuesday effort (see above) he's off an excellent 2017 season in which he went 15-5 (D-backs were 20-8 and plus-$1166 in all of his starts, the third-best moneyline mark among all 2017 starers). He also dominated San Francisco in 2017, going 3-0 with a 1.48 ERA in four starts( team was 4-0) while striking out 29 in 24 1/3 innings. Make Arizona an 8* play. |
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04-17-18 | Red Sox v. Angels -148 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -148 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Red Sox are off to the best start in club history with a 13-2 mark to open the 2018 season. The team's starting pitchers have posted a major league-best 2.06 ERA and Boston's team ERA of 2.94 ranks third-best. The Red Sox are averaging 5.93 RPG (2nd-best) plus the team's .275 BA and .795 OPS also rank 2nd-best in MLB. The Red Sox begin a three-game series Tuesday night in Anaheim against the Angels, a team with MLB's second-best best record (13-3), while leading all teams in scoring (6.44 RPG), team BA (.291) and OPS (.825). LA's 26 HRs are second-best overall and the team's pitching (3.19 ERA ranks 7th) is more than good enough, considering the way the team is hitting. The pitching matchup: David Price (1-1, 2.40 ERA) gets the ball for Boston and the Angels' two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani (2-0, 2.08 ERA) will be on the mound for LA. Price had trouble on (injuries) and off (arguments with reporters and people in and around the organization) the field in 2017, making only 16 appearances, including 11 starts. He finished 6-3 with a 3.38 ERA, while Boston went 6-5 in his 11 starts. Price looks healthier and seems happier in 2018 and will take the mound for his fourth start of 2018 in this one. However, Price did leave last Wednesday's 10-7 loss to the New York Yankees after allowing four runs in one inning, telling reporters that he lost feeling in his fingertips on a cold night in Boston. He is 5-7 with a 3.53 ERA in 15 starts in his career versus the Los Angeles Angels. Ohtani has served as the DH in seven games for Los Angeles, which is not using him on the day before and after he pitches. He has 33 at-bats as a designated hitter, batting .367 with three HRs and 11 RBI. He was supposed to take the ball Sunday but the game in Kansas City was postponed. Ohtani carried a perfect game into the seventh inning against Oakland in his last outing April 8, permitting one hit and striking out 12 in seven scoreless innings of the Angels' 6-1 victory. He also defeated the Athletics in his first major league start, allowing three runs (on a 3-run HR) and three hits in six frames. The pick: Boston's 13-2 record is MLB's best, as is the team's plus-$1043 moneyline mark. LA is right behind them at 13-3 and at plus-$1009 vs. the moneyline. However, the Angels have the best run differential in baseball at plus-48 with the Red Sox second at plus-42. What a series it should be. Ohtani attempts to become the first Los Angeles Angels pitcher to win his first three starts since Jared Weaver in 2006 and also gets the chance to display his skills on the mound against a team other than Oakland. My bet says he moves to 3-0. Make LA a 10* play. |
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04-17-18 | Reds v. Brewers -148 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The Reds limped into Milwaukee last night mired in the team's fworst start (2-13) since the Great Depression (1931, to be exact). However, Cincinnati snapped an eight-game skid with Monday's 10-4 triumph over the Brewers. Adam Duvall collected three of Cincinnati's season-high 14 hits in helping his team 'improve' to 3-13. Duvall is 7-for-16 with three doubles and a HR in his last four contests, after stumbling out of the blocks with just four hits in his previous 12 games. The Reds haven't exactly been clicking on all cylinders, averaging only 3.38 RPG to rank 25th in all of MLB. Throw in a MLB-worst 5.72 ERA and it's easy to see why the Reds are just 3-13. "A win is salve regardless of how early or late you are in the season," Reds manager Bryan Price said. "A win makes everyone feel better. It's a long time coming, but it certainly feels good to win." The boo birds made their presence felt early and often as the Milwaukee Brewers' home woes continued with Monday's lopsided loss. The 8-9 Brewers look to turn the jeers into cheers on Tuesday, as they hope to win for just the third time in nine outings at Miller Park. Domingo Santana saw his six-game hitting streak come to an end for the Brewers last night, who have been outscored 48-20 at home in 2018. The Brewers aren't scoring much more than the Reds (3.53 RPG ranks 22nd), although the team's 4.08 ERA is more middle-of-the-pack (4.08). The pitching: Sal Romano (0-1, 5.87 ERA) gets the nod for Cincy and will be opposed by Milwaukee's Junior Guerra (1-0, 1.69 ERA). Romano has yet to win in three starts (team is 1-2) and he didn't do himself any favors by issuing four walks for the second time in three starts on Thursday, leading to his exit after allowing four runs on five hits in 4 1/3 innings against St. Louis. All three of Romano's career starts against Milwaukee came last year and he went 0-3 mark with a 7.24 ERA. Guerra saw the wheels come off in a hurry after serving as Milwaukee's Opening Day starter in 2017. He would make just 21 appearances in 2017 (14 starts), going 1-4 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.48 WHIP (Brewers went 4-10 in Guerra's starts, going minus-$439 vs. the moneyline). However, he insists he's healthier now and showed it with a strong outing following his recall from Triple-A Colorado Springs. Guerra allowed just one run on four hits in 5 1/3 innings of a 3-2 victory versus St. Louis on April 11, his first start of 2018. Guerra is 1-1 with a 6.35 ERA in four career appearances against Cincinnati. The pick: The Reds surprised with a Monday win but remember, Cincy won just 29 games on the road in 2017 (only the Giants won fewer games) and even Monday's win makes them just 2-6 away from home here in 2018, allowing 6.00 RPG. Romano hardly looks capable of getting things straightened out considering his 'efforts' against Milwaukee last season (see above), so I'll back the Brewers who were MLB's biggest money-earner in 2017 at plus-$1801 (at $100/game). Make Milwaukee an 8* play. |
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04-16-18 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: The Seattle Mariners open a four-game series against the visiting Houston Astros on Monday., coming off a 2-1 home loss on Sunday to the Oakland A's. That defeat ended a four-game winning streak in which the Mariners had plated 29 runs. The 8-5 Mariners find themselves 3 1/2 games behind the first-place Angels (13-3) in the AL West, with the Astros (last year's World Series champs) sittiing right in front of them at 10-6. Houston started 9-2 but Sunday's 3-1 home loss to the Rangers was the team's fourth loss in its last five. The 44-year-old Bartolo Colon retired 21 consecutive Astros before Carlos Correa drew a leadoff walk in the eighth inning and then Josh Reddick followed up witha double. The pitching matchup: Lefty Dallas Keuchel (0-2, 4.20 ERA) will seek his first win of the season for Houston, while Seattle will counter with another lefty, James Paxton (0-1, 5.74 ERA). This marks Keuchel's fourth start and the former Cy Young Award winner lasted only four innings in a 4-1 loss at Minnesota on Tuesday, surrendering three runs on six hits and four walks (second straight appearance in which he's allowed four walks). Keuchel has 15 career appearances against the Mariners, including 14 starts, going 8-5 with a 2.70 ERA. Paxton had a poor 2018 debut (4.2 IP / 6 hits / 4 walks / 6 ERs) but has bounced back with two solid outings. However, he remains winless on the season (team is 1-2). He has given up just two runs in each his last two starts, including a six-inning effort at Kansas City on Wednesday in which he matched his career high with 10 strikeouts but settled for a no-decision. Paxton owns a 3-3 record and 3.38 ERA in eight lifetime starts against Houston. The pick: Both of these two pitchers are overdue for an excellent start. Keuchel was the AL's Cy Young winner in 2015 (20-game winner) and last year, went 14-5 (2.90 ERA) in helping Houston win the World Series. As for Paxton, he took over the role of Seattle's ace last season, with King Felix making only 16 starts. Paxton entered the season primed for a big campaign after the oft-injured lefty put together his best season in 2017, finishing with career highs in wins, starts (24), innings (136) and strikeouts (156). He was named the AL's Pitcher of the Month in July when he won all six of his starts. He was 7-3 with a 2.45 ERA at home last season as opposed to 5-2 with a 3.66 mark on the road while allowing just nine HRs overall. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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04-15-18 | Cardinals -161 v. Reds | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: St. Louis Cardinals have outscored the Reds by a 24-8 margin in taking the first three of a four-game series in Cincinnati. The Cards have been able inch above .500 with this "mini-run," becoming just the latest team to take advantage of the struggling Reds, who own MLB's worst record (2-12) and will need to break a seven-game losing streak to avoid a four-game home sweep. Saturday's 6-1 win came behind seven strong innings from starter Miles Mikolas, with Greg Garcia producing two HRs and a double plus Tommy Pham going 3-for-4 with a walk for St. Louis, (1st time Cards have been above .500 in 2018). The loss gives Cincinnati its worse start since 1931, when the team lost 17 of its first 19 contests. The pitching matchup: Carlos Martinez (1-1, 2.41 ERA) will get the ball for the Cards and Homer Bailey (0-2, 3.24 ERA) gets teh nod for the Reds. Martinez has just one win after three starts but he's allowed only 14 hits and has 19 Ks through 18 2/3 innings. His problem has been allowing 10 walks, although the bulk of those came in a rocky season debut (4.1 IP / 4 hits / 6 walks / 4 ERs). Martinez is 6-3 with a 3.84 ERA in 19 career games (just eight starts) against Cincinnati,. Bailey has allowed only a run in six innings in two of his first three starts but his team is 0-3 in his outings. He struck out seven and yielded two hits in his six innings of work at Philadelphia on Tuesday, getting through a start without allowing a walk for the first time in 2018. However, Bailey has fared poorly in his career against the Cards, going 6-13 with a 5.86 ERA in 23 career starts. The pick: The Cardinals have been perennial playoff contenders but hardly looked like ones in opening 5-7. The Reds have given them a chance to gain some momentum (and some confidence) and St. Louis has done just that. Martinez had a shaky 2018 debut (see above) but he's rebounded by allowing just one run in 14 1/3 innings over his last two outings. That bodes well for the Cards, as his counterpart (Bailey) has been awful in his career against St. Louis (again, see above). Absolutely nothing has gone right for the Reds, who have not just been outscored 24-8 in this series vs. the Cards but by a margin of 45-17 during the team's seven-game slide. The Reds are coming off three consecutive last-place seasons in which they've averaged 95 losses and they are currently 'ahead' of that pace in 2018. Cincy is off to its worst start in 87 years, or since the Reds were also 2-12 in 1931, when they lost 96 times during a 154-game season. Make St. Louis an 8* play. |
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04-14-18 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -162 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -162 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: Paraphrasing Britney Spears, "Oooops, the D'backs did it again!" Arizona led LA 5-1 by the third inning last night and held on for an 8-7 victory. Amazingly, it was the D'backs' 10th consecutive regular season win over the Dodgers, as Arizona improved to 10-3, Its best start 13-game start in franchise history. 3B Daniel Descalso hit cleanup for the first time in his career Friday and went 2-for-4 with a two-run homer and four RBI and LF David Peralta returned to the lead-off spot after missing two games due to a sore left hand to 2-for-4 with two runs scored. Closer Brad Boxberger finished up, recording his fifth save while extending his scoreless streak to 14 games dating back to last season.The loss dropped the defending NL champs to 4-8 plus they received a scare when Matt Kemp crashed into the wall on a HR. However, the veteran was diagnosed with a knee contusion and said he expects to play Saturday. Leadoff hitter Chris Taylor and first baseman Cody Bellinger each homered in Friday’s loss, as the Dodgers are battling a middling .238 (14th), while averaging a modest 3.83 RPG (19th). The pitching matchup: Arizona will send Taijuan Walker (0-0, 3.27 ERA) to the mound and he'll be opposed bu LA's Rich Hill (1-0, 2.70 ERA). Walker received a no-decision last Sunday dspite holding St. Louis to one run on three hits over six innings.This marks his third start and while he's searching for his first win of 2018 (he went 9-9 with ERA in hist first season with Arizona last year), the D'backs are 2-0 in his 2018 starts. Walker is 2-1 with a 4.91 ERA in five career starts against the Dodgers. Hill tossed six shutout innings against San Francisco in his season debut to earn the 9-0 home win but he allowed three earned runs over four innings in last Saturday’s rematch against the Giants, getting a no-decision in a 7-5 LA loss. Hill has battled blister problems over the past two years but the Dodgers won 14 of his last 21 starts in 2017, before going 3-1 in his four postseason starts. The bad news for LA is, Hill has posted a 1-5 record with a 4.78 ERA in nine career starts against the Diamondbacks. The pick: Will the Dodgers ever beat the D'backs? Of course they will, but when? How about right here? The Dodgers were a dominating and MLB-best 57-24 in their home park last season and while Hill posted a 4.06 ERA in 11 road starts last season, his ERA in 14 outings at Dodger Stadium was 2.77 ERA. His first home start of 2018 went well (see above), so I'm saying. ":second verse, same as the first." Make LA a 10* play. |
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04-14-18 | Pirates -153 v. Marlins | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The Miami Marlins earned a 7-2 win last night at home over the Pirates in the series opener of a three-game set. It was just the second win in the last nine games for Miami, whose 4-9 record is better than only the 2-11 Cincinnari Reds in the National League. The Pirates lost for the second time in seven road contests this season and will look to bounce back tonight, after opening the 2018 season a surprising 9-4 (sit atop of the NL Central). J.B. Shuck went 4-for-4 with two runs scored in his first game for the Marlins and his first contest in the majors since 2016. Meanwhile, the top-five hitters in the Pittsburgh lineup were a combined 1-for-18 with six strikeouts and catcher Elias Diaz provided all the offense with a two-run HR in the fifth. The Pirates entered the day leading the National League in runs scored but went 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position. The pitching matchup: The Pirates had the ball to Jameson Taillon (2-0, 1.26 ERA), while the Marlins counter with Trevor Richards (0-1, 8.64 ERA). Taillon is coming off a one-hit shutout of Cincinnati last Sunday at home, using 110 pitches to complete the gem, while striking out seven. Taillon also won his 2018 debut, yielding only two runs and four hits across 5 1/3 innings while tying a career high with nine strikeouts, as the Pirates beat the Twins 5-4. He was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2010 draft but until last Sunday, had not made it into the ninth in his first two seasons. The 26-year-old allowed one run in five innings to get the win in his only prior career start against the Marlins last April in Miami. Richards failed to complete five innings in either of his first two career starts, after allowing three runs in four innings in a no-decision at Philadelphia on Sunday. The 24-year-old Richards posted a 2.53 ERA in 27 games (25 starts) across two levels in the minors last season. The pick: This could very well be a breakout season for Taillon (that's my prediction) and he couldn't ask for much more of a 'lightweight' opponent in the Marlins to face in looking for his third win of 2018. Miami is just 3-7 at home and Taillon's teammates come in averaging 6.14 RPG on the road so far in 2018 and get to face a struggling rookie in Richards, who not only owns an 'ugly' 8.64 ERA but a whopping 2.16 WHIP, plus opponents are hitting .389 against him (he's allowed five doubles and a HR in his first 8 1/3 innings). The Marlins have yet to win back-to-back games in 2018 and WON"T on Saturday, either. Make Pittsburgh an 8* play. |
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04-13-18 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -132 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -132 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Dodgers have won the National League West in each of the last five seasons and in the 2017 postseason, easily dispatched the Arizona Diamondbacks in a three-game sweep in the NLDS. However, there can be no question that the Diamondbacks have enjoyed the upper hand in their divisional rivalry with the Dodgers as of late. Not when one looks at the fact that the Diamondbacks, who visit Dodger Stadium on Friday to open a three-game series, will be seeking a 10th straight regular-season victory against the Dodgers. The Diamondbacks continued to their recent regular-season mastery of the Dodgers early last week, winning in 15 innings in the opener before yielding a total of one run and five hits over the final two contests to conclude a third straight sweep of the defending division champions with victories of 6-1 and 3-0. Los Angeles did get the last laugh against Arizona last year by sweeping the Diamondbacks in three games during the NLDS but came up short in the 2017 World Series in Game 7 vs. Houston. LA is just 4-7 to open the 2018 season and has yet to win more than two games in a row this season. The Dodgers' pitching staff is also licking its wounds after allowing 16 runs on 21 hits in Wednesday's home loss against Oakland. In contrast, Arizona is off to a 9-3 start, while owning a 2.72 team ERA (3rd-best in MLB) that includes a 1.69 ERA by its bullpen (2nd-best). The pitching matchup: Zack Greinke (0-1, 5.06 ERA), who pitched for LA from 2013-15, will get the start for Arizona and Kenta Maeda (1-0, 0.00 ERA) for LA. Greinke struggled in the sub-40 degree conditions in St. Louis on Saturday, surrendering five runs on nine hits while striking out five in as many innings. The former Cy Young Award winner has yet to make it through six innings or throw more than 86 pitches in his two 2018 starts but one also needs to note that he owns a 14-0 KW ratio through 10 2/3 innings. Greinke went 1-2 with a 3.65 ERA in four starts against his former team last season and is 1-2 with a 7.56 ERA in three starts at Dodger Stadium since joining Arizona in 2016. Maeda made his first start of the season back on since March 31 but he was skipped in the rotation due to a rainout on April 6, before pitching one inning of relief at San Francisco on Saturday, In his lone 2018 start, he allowed five hits and a walk over five innings but didn't allow a run against the Giants, while striking out 10! However, he was 0-3 with a 7.36 ERA in five starts against the Diamondbacks last season (Dodgers were 1-4). He is 3-3 lifetime against the Diamondbacks with a 4.72 ERA in 11 starts (LA is 4-7). The pick: Maeda's career number vs. Arizona are not good (see above) plus as noted, the D'backs have won NINE straight regular season meetings with the Dodgers. However, the Dodgers were a dominating and MLB-best 57-24 in their home park last season. The team's slow start to the current season is no more than mild concern and I'll make LA a 10* play. |
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04-13-18 | Braves v. Cubs -220 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -220 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Atlanta Braves came into the 2018 season off winning 67, 68 and 72 games the previous three years, so the team's 7-5 start is mildly surprising. The Braves have held their own against some of the National League’s best teams, splitting six games with the Nats (97 wins in 2017) and taking two of three from the Rockies (87 wins). Atlanta will face another big test with a three-game road series against the Chicago Cubs that begins Friday. The Cubs won 103 games and then the 2016 World Series and followed with 92 wins and a second straight NL Central crown last season. However, Chicago's had an inconsistent start in 2018, evidenced by it losing 8-5 on Tuesday in the first of its three-games series with Pittsburgh, then winning on Wednesday 13-5 by scoring a season-high in runs but losing the series finale on Thursday, 6-1. The Cubs have hovered around .500 out of the gate and are back there at 6-6 heading into this weekend's series against the Atlanta Braves at Wrigley Field. The Braves come into Friday's contest having had a much-needed day off Thursday, after concluding their three-game series at Washington with a 5-3 win in 12 innings. Atlanta’s bats have cooled off after a hot start, as the team has scored a total of only 12 runs over its last five games after averaging eight per game in its first seven contests. The pitching matchup: Anibal Sanchez (0-0, 2.25 ERA) will get teh ball fro Atlanta and the Cubs will turn to their biggest off-season acquisition, Yu Darvish (0-0, 5.23 ERA). Sanchez beagan his career with the Marlins and threw a no-hitter for them in a 2–0 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks on September 6, 2006. Sanchez is hoping to revive his career after a couple of rough years to end his tenure with Detroit and the 34-year-old worked three strong innings of relief in his Braves debut (April 2) plus was effective in his first start for Atlanta this past Saturday at Colorado, allowing two runs and seven hits with six strikeouts over five innings in a no-decision (Braves lost 3-2). Sanchez is 3-2 with a 3.82 ERA in seven career starts against the Cubs, with the last occurring in 2015. Darvish was far from sharp in his Chicago debut, allowing five ERs in 4 1/3 innings but was dominant in his second start with the Cubs. He registered nine strikeouts and allowed only two hits – including a solo homer – over six innings Saturday at Milwaukee. Darvish will be facing the Braves for the first time in his career. The pick: The Braves are wrapping up a nine-game road trip with these three games in Wrigley Field and the Braves are just 4-9 against the Cubs the last two seasons, including just 1-6 in 2017. Darvish looked very good in his last outing (plus Atlanta's bats have gone quiet) and I'm not even a little bit convinced that Sanchez has 'anything left in his tank!' Make the Cubs a 6* play. |
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04-12-18 | Giants v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The 4-9 San Diego Padres return home to open a four-game series against the 5-6 San Francisco Giants on Thursday. The Padres went 3-3 against Houston and Colorado but ended their trip with a benches-clearing brawl Wednesday at Coors Field, when Luis Perdomo threw behind Nolan Arenado in the third inning, resulting in five ejections. Perdomo’s early exit came one day after Padres outfielder Manuel Margot was hit by Scott Oberg, forcing him to the disabled list with bruised ribs The Padres are an 'ugly' 1-6 so far at Petco Park in 2018 and welcome the Giants to San Diego, as San Francisco begins an 11-day, 10-game road trip after dropping two of three against Arizona, including Wednesday’s 7-3 loss. The pitching matchup: Chris Stratton (0-1, 4.35 ERA) takes the hill for the Giants and the Padres will hand the ball to Bryan Mitchell (0-1, 4.22 ERA). Stratton's appearance will be his first in 2018 against a team other than the Dodgers. He's allowed a total of six runs (five earned) on nine hits over 10 1/3 innings against LA (Giants won one and lost one). Stratton has bounced between the minors and majors for the last two seasons but earned a spot in the rotation after posting a 3.29 ERA over 27 1/3 innings this spring, while drawing raves for his improved curveball. Stratton owns a 1-1 record with a 6.43 ERA in two career games (one start) across seven innings against the Padres. Mitchell bounced back from a rough Padres debut against Colorado (8 hits & 5 ERs over 5 IP) by holding Houston scoreless over 5 2/3 innings last Saturday. He was acquired from the New York Yankees during the off-season and the 26-year-old will be making his first career appearance against San Francisco. The pick: These NL West rivals play the first of their 19 meetings this season tonight, as the Padres open a seven-game homestand (Giants are beginning a 10-game road trip). It's true that the Giants come in averaging a MLB-low 3.00 RPG but San Diego's start at home has been dreadful. The Padres are allowing 5.14 RPG at Petco, a pitcher-friendly park, leading to their 1-6 home mark. No reason to think Mitchell will improve on San Diego's home pitching so far, as he's made a modest 50 career appearances (just 11 starts), posting a 4.87 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. As for Stratton, his "solid spring" has yet to carry over to the regular season. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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04-12-18 | Pirates v. Cubs -175 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -175 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pirates and Cubs were postponed by bad weather on Monday and then Pittsburgh took Tuesday's rescheduled game, 8-5.The Cubs bounced back Wednesday night, banging out 16 hits in a 13-5 victory that evened the series. Every starting position player recorded at least one hit, including Javier Baez, who became the first Cubs player with consecutive multi-homer performances since Alfonso Soriano in 2008 and the first player in the majors to accomplish the feat this season. Baez now has four HRs in his last eight at-bats! The teams will play the rubber game of the series this afternoon, as the Pirates look to avoid suffering their first series loss of the year. The 8-3 Pirates have yet to lose back-to-back games this season while the 6-5 Cubs hope to move two games over .500 for the first time in 2018. The pitching matchup: Pittsburgh's Trevor Williams (2-0, 1.59 ERA) puts his perfect start to 2018 on the line this afternoon, opposed by Chicago's Kyle Hendricks (0-0, 4.09 ERA). Williams threw six hitless innings in a 1-0 win at Detroit on April 1 but issued five walks and struggled to command the strike zone. He then allowed 10 hits in 5 1/3 innings but only two runs in his second outing, a 14-3 win at home over Cincinnati this past Friday. Williams makes his third start of 2018 today. However, in five career games (three starts) against the Cubs, he has not been at his best. He is 1-2 with a 4.82 ERA in 18 2/3 innings. During that span, he has walked 10 and struck out 13. Hendricks has been on the wrong end of a pair of one-run games to open 2018.the season (both Chicago losses and no-decisions for him). He gave up a pair of HRs the last time out, allowing four runs and nine hits over five innings in a 5-4 loss at Milwaukee. Hendricks took a no-decision in his season-opener in Miami on March 30, allowing four hits and one run over six innings of a 2-1 Chicago loss. In 10 career starts against Pittsburgh, Hendricks is 4-2 with a 3.23 ERA. He has struck out 49 and walked nine in 55 2/3 innings. Last year, he went 1-1 in three starts against the Pirates, allowing five runs in 17 2/3 innings for a 2.55 ERA. The pick: Hard-fought series are nothing new to these division rivals, as despite Chicago finishing 17 games better than Pittsburgh in 2017, the Cubs barely edged the Pirates for a 10-9 season-series win. This marks Williams' second full season and he's coming off a 7-9 (4.07 ERA) mark in 31 appearances (25 starts) in 2017. Meanwhile, Hendricks was the third-place finisher in the 2016 National League Cy Young Award voting (16-8, 2.13 ERA) and is 38-22 in his career. He's also been outstanding at home in his career, going 19-9 with a 2.48 ERA in 50 games (49 starts) at Wrigley Field. Make Chicago an 8* play. |
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04-11-18 | Angels v. Rangers UNDER 10.5 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Angels have scored 19 runs while banging out 31 hits in taking the first two of a three-game series against the Rangers in Arlington. The team's 9-3 record is tied for the best 12-game start in franchise history, with LA leading the majors in runs scored (79), hits (128) and HRs (20). Mike Trout belted a 441-foot HR to mark the second time he's gone deep in three outings and Albert Pujols recorded his second straight multi-hit performance and fourth during his seven-game hitting streak in Los Angeles' 11-1 romp over Texas on Tuesday. Pujols resides one RBI shy of tying Hall of Famer Jimmie Foxx (1,925) for seventh place on the all-time list. While LA is off to a great start, the reeling Rangers' 4-9 start is the Rangers' worst through 13 games since 2002. The Rangers have 15 hits over the first two games of this series but have not had a "big hit," scoring only four runs. The pitching matchup: The Angels' Jaime Barria makes his MLB in this contest and will opposed by the Ranger's Matt Moore (0-2, 11.05 ERA). Barria was signed by the Angels out of Panama at just 16 years-old. The now-21-year-old Barria is expected to be activated on Wednesday to make his major-league debut. He worked his way through High-A and Double-A before finishing with three starts in Triple-A Salt Lake last season in which he struck out 11 in 14 2/3 innings. As for Moore, he was awful last year with the Giants, going 6-15 with a 5.52 ERA (SF was 10-21 in his starts, minus-$1233 vs. the moneyline). He has now stumbled out of the box in 2018 for Texas by allowing 10 runs (nine ERs) on 12 hits in pair of sub-par performances, with his four walks in just 3 1/3 innings on Friday against Houston raising more concerns. The pick: Starting pitching was one of the biggest question marks for the Texas Rangers entering the 2018 campaign but the Rangers were expected to compensate by being able to go toe-to-toe with opponents in hitting and in the power department. So far it has not happened. The Rangers are batting a modest .236 (16th) and are even worse in runs scored, as teheteam's 3.23 RPG ranks 26th. Texas has just 10 HRs (21st) and its OPS is .600 (also 21st). Texas has the kind of lineup that a young pitcher should feel comfortable facing in his MLB debut. As for Texas' Moore, despite is ugly numbers coming in, he can gain confidence from the fact he owns a 4-0 mark with a 1.78 ERA in five career outings vs. the Angels. That ERA is fourth-lowest among active pitchers with five-plus starts against Los Angeles. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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04-11-18 | Astros -153 v. Twins | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -153 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up:The Astros beat the Twins 2-0 on Monday but Minnesota rebounded with a 4-1 victory Tuesday over Houston to even the series at a game apiece. The rubber match of this three-game series goes Wednesday and the afternoon start may make conditions a little better (warmer), as the teams played in frigid conditions last night with temperatures in the 30s. Minnesota is just a modest 5-4 on the young season but the Twins have yet to lose a series this season. They can keep that streak intact this afternoon with a win. The 9-3 Astros averaged 7.00 RPG during a five-game winning streak from March 31 through April 4 but Houston comes into this contest having scored only nine runs over its the past five games The pitching matchup: The Astros will send Lance McCullers Jr. (1-1, 3.48 ERA) to the mound and he will be opposed by the Twins' Kyle Gibson (1-0, 0.87 ERA). McCullers turned in a strong performance in winning his season debut, striking out 10 and allowing two runs over 5 1/3 innings at Texas but he took the loss with five innings of three-run ball against San Diego on Friday. McCullers hasn't faced the Tiwns since was a rookie in 2015 and will come into this game 0-1 with a 2.77 ERA in two career starts versus Minnesota. Gibson struggled with his control but otherwise was unhittable in his season debut, tossing six scoreless innings and not allowing a single hit to earn the win at Baltimore. He then gave up two first-inning runs in his second start of 2018 against Seattle and seven hits over 4 1/3 innings, as the Twins beat the Mariners 4-2 (Gibson settled for a no-decision). Gibson is 3-1 with a 2.76 ERA against the Astros but that one loss came last season when he gave up four runs in six innings. The pick: The Astros' bats have been quiet lately but there is noihing wrong with their pitching staff. Houston's owns MLB's lowest team ERA at 2.02, including a 2.19 ERA from its bullpen (6th-best). Most will remember McCullers' strong efforts in last year's ALCS and World Series, when he made four appearances, going 1-0 with a save and an ERA of 2.04. Gibson's 65 starts are the most in Target Field history but now in his sixth season, he's still just 45-48 overall, with a 4.64 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. I say Houston takes the series and I'll make the Astros an 8* play. |
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04-10-18 | Angels -130 v. Rangers | Top | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Angels finished 80-82 in 2017, 21 games back of the first-place Houston Astros in the AL West, a team which would go on to capture last year's World Series title. The Angels would end the season 22nd in runs scored and ranked just 28th (of 30 teams) in team batting average in 2017. Of course, Mike Trout missed 48 games. The team's demise gave management plenty of motivation to make a late August trade for Justin Upton (re-signing him in the off-season) and to sign Zack Cozart in December. That duo was expected to fortify the top of LA's batting order and the early returns suggest the vision to protect Mike Trout was right on target. Cozart has scored a run in five straight games and Upton owns a team-leading nine RBI. The Angels lead the majors with 68 runs scored and pace the American League in batting average (.270), despite a slow start from two-time AL MVP Trout. Los Angeles is 8-3 after 11 games for the first time in 31 years, after last night's 8-3 win. It figured to be tough 2018 season for Texas and the Rangers have opened 4-8, including a poor 2-6 record at home. They have yet to win consecutive games after falling 8-3 in Monday's series opener. To make matters worse, Texas watched second baseman Rougned Odor leave in the first inning with a left hamstring strain. The pitching matchup: A pair of lefties square off tonight, Tyler Skaggs (1-0, 1.64 ERA) takes the mound for LA and he'll be opposed by the Rangers' Martin Perez (1-0, 5.06 ERA). Skaggs struck out five over 4 2/3 innings but needed 103 pitches to do so in Wednesday's no-decision at home against Cleveland, which reached him for two runs on five hits and two walks. The lefty was dominant in his season debut on March 30, permitting only three singles while striking out five over 6 1/3 scoreless frames in a win at Oakland. The Angels are 2-0 in Skaggs' first two starts of 2018, but he went 0-1 with a 7.79 ERA in four starts versus the Rangers last season (Angels were 2-2). Perez received some early run support and managed to do just enough to get the victory Thursday at Oakland, allowing three runs and 10 hits in 5 1/3 innings while recording only one strikeout. This makes his second start of 2018 and it's a fact that he has been much more successful at home throughout his career (26-19, 4.18 ERA) than on the road (16-23, 4.73). Perez went 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA in three starts versus the Angels last season, getting both wins over a 10-day span from Aug. 24-Sept.3. The pick: Eleven games into the 2018 season, the Los Angeles Angels look as if they will have a team that can contend for the American League West while conversely, the Texas Rangers have more questions than answers. The two teams meet on Tuesday at Globe Life Park in Arlington, Texas, for the second game of their three-game series. It's true that Perez has a better history against the Angels than Skaggs has against the Rangers but the Angels are currently just the way better team. LA is averaging 6.18 RPG, while Texas averages only 3.42 plus is allowing 4.82 RPG, including 5.75 RPG here at Globe Life Park. Make the Angels a 10* play. |
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04-10-18 | Rays v. White Sox OVER 8 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up:The Tampa Bay Rays beat the Red Sox 6-4 on Opening Day but just this past Sunday, blew a five-run lead in a demoralizing 8-7 loss at Boston. The Rays' eighth consecutive loss came despite a season-high 11 hits. However, the Rays pounded out 14 hits on Monday to earn a much-needed 5-4 win to open their series at Chicago with the White Sox. Chicago fell to 3-6 in 2018 after losing for the fourth straight time and being outscored 21-12 during its early season skid. Wet, cold weather has frustrated hitters and pitchers alike for Chicago, as the White Sox are 0-4 at home this season, after leaving the tying and winning runs at second and third with none out in the ninth inning. It marks the club's first 0-4 home start since 1987. The pitching matchup: Tampa Bay sends Blake Snell (0-1, 5.00 ERA) to the mound and he will be opposed by Chicago's Carson Fulmer (0-0, 5.40 ERA). Snell had a strong season debut (5.2 IP/ 3 hits 0 runs) but could not match that effort last Wednesday at New Yrok, as he allowed four hits and five ERs in just 3 1/3 innings of a 7-2 loss to the Yankees. Snell takes the mound having not allowed an earned run in 9 1/3 innings of limited work against the White Sox. Fulmer did not get a decision in his 2018 debut last Wednesday when he surrendered three runs on five hits and a walk with five strikeouts over five innings at Toronto. Fulmer, the eighth overall pick in the 2015 draft, made seven appearances (five starts) last year, going 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA, which including a 3-0 mark and 1.64 ERA in four September starts. His only appearance in his brief career against Chicago was a two-inning relief effort against Tampa Bay back on Sep. 2 of 2017 in Chicago, when he earned a victory. The pick: The Rays' start to the 2918 season has been awful but the etam's bats have begun to 'warm up,' banging out 25 hits and scoring 12 runs over their last two games. Yes, Chicago's Fulmer pitched well last September (see above) but his 2018 debut was hardly impressive (again, see above), plus one can't expect Chicago's bullpen to bail him out. Heading into today's game, the White Sox bullpen owns a 6.30 ERA, the highest in all of MLB. Chicago is allowing 5.78 RPG on the season, while Tampa Bay is allowing 7.17 RPG in its first six road games of 2018. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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04-09-18 | Mariners -104 v. Royals | Top | 0-10 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The 4-3 Seattle Mariners and the 4-3 Kansas City Royals open a three-game road series on Monday at Kauffman Stadium. Seattle set a season high for runs in an 11-4 win at Minnesota on Saturday, but the series finale was postponed due to inclement weather. However, the offensive outburst was a good sign for a Mariners team that had totaled just three runs in losing its previous two games. The Royals have shown even less firepower in the early going, as they rank near the bottom of MLB in most offensive categories. KC ranks last in runs (2.29 per) and HRs (2), while ranking 28th in BA (.205) and 29th in OPS (.555). The Royals went 2-3 on their trip to Detroit and Cleveland but the good news for the Royals was they got good pitching on the trip, giving up just six runs in the last four games. The pitching matchup: The Mariners will go with lefty Marco Gonzales (1-0, 4.26 ERA) and the Royals will counter with Jakob Junis (1-0, 0.00 ERA).Gonzales’ second start of the season was pushed back to tonight, because of Sunday’s postponement in Minnesota. He was solid in his debut, allowing three runs and six hits over 6 1/3 innings en route to a 6-4 win at San Francisco. However, he did serve up a pair of HRs at spacious AT&T Park, which might warrant some concern. Gonzales has started one game in his career against the Royals, a no-decision on Aug. 6 when he pitched four innings, allowing five runs and seven hits, while striking out five and issuing only one walk. Junis was dominant in his first outing of the season, striking out six over seven scoreless innings to win 1-0 at Detroit last Tuesday. He allowed only three singles and a walk, carrying over from his impressive spring. Junis has been excellent at home in his young career, going 3-0 with a 3.43 ERA in nine games (seven starts) at Kauffman Stadium. Monday will be Junis' second career start against the Mariners. His other start came Aug. 6, a 9-1 victory in which he pitched eight innings, allowing one run and four hits with seven strikeouts and no walks. The pick: Not sure I trust Junis to pitch anywhere near as well as he did last Tuesday, even though the Mariners are dealing with a number of injuries as Nelson Cruz (ankle), Mike Zunino (left oblique) and Ben Gamel (right oblique). are all on the DL. The 2018 season appears to be a rebuilding process for the Royals. this season. Kansas City won the 1985 World Series but it wasn't until 2015 when KC returned to the postseason. The Royals made it to the World Series that season, before losing a dramtic seven-game series to Madison Bumgarner and the SF Giants. KC came right back the following year and captured the franchise's second-ever World Series title by beating the Mets in five games. However, reality has returned to KC, as the Royals own back-to-season of 81 and 80 wins. The Royals lost a couple key contributors during the off-season when Eric Hosmer signed with the San Diego Padres and Lorenzo Cain joined the Milwaukee Brewers. Then right before the start of this season, KC lost five-time All-Star catcher Salvador Perez for at least four-to-six weeks when he tore the MCL in his left knee when he lost his balance while carrying luggage. Can't make that up. Make Seattle a 10* play. |
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04-09-18 | Tigers v. Indians OVER 8 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The 4-5 Cleveland Indians begin a four-game home series against Central Division-rival the Detroit Tigers on Monday (Detroit has opened 4-4). The Indians manufactured a run without a hit in the eighth inning to tie the game before Yan Gomes delivered a two-run HR in the ninth for a 3-1 victory over Kansas City on Sunday, earning their first series win of the season. "We needed the win and we got a win,” Cleveland manager Terry Francona told reporters after his team improved to 4-5 overall. “We obviously have some work to do offensively, and we will. But it’s nice to win a game like that.” The Tigers come in off a three-game sweep on the road against the Chicago White Sox, scoring 15 runs to win the first two games before recording a 1-0 triumph on Sunday to even their record at 4-4. The pitching matchup: Detroit will send left-hander Francisco Liriano (1-0, 1.35 ERA) to the mound against reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber (0-1, 2.40 ERA). Liriano was outstanding in his Tigers debut, allowing just one run on four hits and two walks with three strikeouts over 6 2/3 innings in a 6-1 win over Kansas City last Monday. He used as a reliever 20 times in 38 appearances with Houston and Toronto last season, finishing with a 6-7 record and 5.66 ERA. Kluber has yet to find the win column despite producing two quality starts, yielding four runs on nine hits and three walks in road games against Seattle and the Los Angeles Angels. He has struck out 14 over 15 innings thus far. Last year, Kluber made five starts against Detroit and was 3-1 with a 3.73 ERA. In 22 career appearances against the Tigers he is 8-7 with a 3.97 ERA. He was dominant at home in 2017 with a 10-2 record and 1.81 ERA with 157 strikeouts over 114 2/3 innings. The pick: Kluber will be making his third start of the season and while he's pitched well in his first two starts, he didn't win either game, as the Indians only scored a total of three runs. In fact, the Indians' .159 team batting average is the lowest in the American League. That said, Liriano could easily prove to be just what the doctor ordered. He made one start against the Indians last year (pitching for Toronto), and it was a disaster. He gave up seven runs, five hits and three walks in two innings, making him 5-6 with a 4.19 ERA.in 20 career appearances (15 starts) against the Indians. Cleveland comes in with seven straight wins over Detroit, having won 27 of its 37 meetings with the Tigers over the last two seasons. Kluber's presence keeps the over/under number low and the play is a 8* on the Over. |
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04-08-18 | Mets v. Nationals UNDER 8 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Mets are off to a 6-1 start for the first time since the 2006 season when they began 8-1. New York will look to complete a three-game sweep of the Washington Nationals tonight, on ESPN. The Mets won 8-2 on Thursday and then survived Bryce Harper's fifth HR, while benefiting from the ejection of Nationals second baseman Anthony Rendon and manager Dave Martinez for arguing balls and strikes in a 3-2 win Saturday afternoon. The Nats won 97 games last season, 27 more than the Mets' 70 wins, but after opening the 2018 season 4-0, the Nats are now staring at losing their fifth in a row. The pitching matchup: Matt Harvey (0-0, 0.00 ERA) takes the mound for the second time this season for New York, opposed by Washington's Tanner Roark (1-0, 1.29 ERA). The Mets are hoping (praying?) that Matt Harvey has put his injuries behind him. Harvey allowed just one hit and a walk while striking out five in five scoreless innings of New York's 2-0 victory over Philadelphia on Tuesday (Harvey settled for a no-decision). The 29-year-old was 25-18 with a 2.53 ERA in his first three seasons before slumping to 9-17, 5.78 in the past two seasons. Harvey is 3-6 with a 3.16 ERA in 15 games (14 starts) versus Washington and 1-3, 3.86 in six starts at Nationals Park. Tanner Roark tinkered with his delivery in spring training before returning to the basics in winning his season opener. He allowed one run, four hits and a walk while striking out six in seven innings of an 8-1 victory at Atlanta on Monday. He is 27-19 with a 3.38 ERA in 74 games (53 starts) at Nationals Park after going 6-6, 5.04 in 17 games (14 starts) there last season. The pick: The good news for Washington in hoping to avoid a sweep and snap a four-game slide is that Roark is 7-2 with a 2.76 ERA in 17 games (11 starts) against New York. Washington could be the side here but note that Harvey looked sharp (and healthy) in his 2018 debut plus the Nats's bats have been strangely 'quiet' for three straight games now, producing only five runs on 17 hits. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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04-08-18 | A's v. Angels -164 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: The Oakland Athletics and the Los Angeles Angels square off Sunday in the rubber match of their three-game series in Anaheim. Oakland rolled to a 7-3 victory Saturday, after wasting a five-HR performance and squandering a late lead in dropping the series opener, 13-9. The 4-6 A's are looking to post back-to-back wins for the first time this season, while the 6-3 Angels look to bounce back after missing a chance for their best nine-game start in franchise history. Saturday's loss ended LA's second three-game winning streak of the season but the Angels can still capture the series and keep up in the early going with the 7-2 Astros. The pitching matchup: Oakland's Kendall Graveman (0-1, 8.10 ERA) makes a third attempt to record his first win of the season and will be opposed by the Angels' Shohei Ohtani (1-0, 4.50 ERA), who will get another chance to win a game with his arm. Graveman hopes to last more than five innings for the first time in 2018, as the 27-year-old has allowed nine runs and 15 hits over his first two starts of 2018 with consecutive five-inning efforts. Graveman has made 12 career starts versus Los Angeles, going 2-2 with one complete game and a 4.33 ERA. It will be the second start for Japanese rookie Ohtani, who was a highly sought offseason free agent because he can pitch and hit at the major league level. He performed poorly in spring training but has exceeded expectations so far this season. He had a solid effort at Oakland in his debut. on April 1,giving up three runs and three hits with a walk and six strikeouts over six inning of a 7-4 Angels win. The only mistake in the outing by Ohtani, who has posted a .389 average with three HRs and seven RBI in four games as a hitter, was the three-run HR he served up to Matt Chapman. The pick: The A's were solid at home last season (46-35, plus-$1309) but only the 26-55 SF Giants won fewer games on the road in 2017 than the A's, who finished 29-52. Oakland's road moneyline mark of minus-$1577 was the third-worst in all of MLB. Ohtani may just be the "Real Deal" (sorry Evander) and why would anyone trust the poor-traveling A's with Graveman on the mound? He's allowed 15 its in just 10 IP, allowing more HRs (4) than he has Ks (2). Along with his hideous 8.10 ERA, he owns a a 1.60 WHIP with opponents batting .357 against him. Make the Angels an 8* play. |
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04-08-18 | Reds v. Pirates -139 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cincinnati Reds had 13 hits in the second of their four-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday, yet still lost by 11 runs, 14-3! Cincinnati had 16 baserunners Friday but it was unable to take advantage because it left 10 men on base and 12 of its 13 hits were singles. The two teams met again on Saturday, with the Pirates coming in a surprising 6-1 on the season, while the Reds sat at just 1-5. Last night's game had a different scenario, as Cincy turned its 11-hit attack into seven runs. Eugenio Suarez stepped up in a big way as his two-run single knotted the game in the sixth inning after Pittsburgh had jumped out to a 4-0 lead and his three-run HR in the eighth gave the Reds a 7-4 win. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's offense bogged down after a four-run first, preventing the Pirates from moving to 7-1, which would have matched the club's best eight-game start since 1973. The pitching matchup: Tyler Mahle (1-0, 0.00 ERA) will take the mound for the 2-5 Reds and the 6-2 Pirates will counter with Jameson Taillon (1-0, 3.38 ERA). Mahle is one of Cincinnati's top prospects and in his first start of 2018, he held the Chicago Cubs to one hit and two walks while striking out seven over six innings to get a 1-0 victory last Monday. Mahle went 0-1 despite a 2.45 ERA in two outings versus the Pirates last season (team was 0-2), accounting for half of his first four career starts prior to this season. Taillon also won his 2018 debut last Monday, yielding only two runs and four hits across 5 1/3 innings while tying a career high with nine strikeouts, as the Pirates beat the Twins 5-4. He was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2010 draft and will try to regain the form that allowed him to thrive at home as a rookie in 2016 (2-2, 2.86 ERA), before struggling iat PNC Park in 2017 (4-5, 5.03 ERA). The pick: The Reds gave Taillon all sorts of trouble last season, as he was 0-2 with a 6.20 ERA in five starts against Cincinnati in 2017 (Pirates were 2-3). However, I doubt the Reds' bats can keep up what they've done the last two games, when they reached Pittsburgh pitchers for 13 and 11 hits, respectively. Cincy is eying consecutive wins for the first time this season on Sunday but let's remember, those Ciny bats produced a total of just 15 hits over their first five games, along with only runs 15 runs (3.0 per). Make Pittsburgh an 8* play. |
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04-07-18 | Blue Jays -115 v. Rangers | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The 5-3 Toronto Blue Jays and the 3-6 Texas Rangers continue their three-game series on Saturday, after the Blue Jays opened a nine-game road trip with an 8-5 victory over the Rangers last night. Toronto has now won five of its last six games, while Texas has dropped five of its last seven. The pitching matchup: Marcus Stroman (0-0, 7.20 ERA) will get the nod for Toronto and lefty Mike Minor (0-1, 3.86 ERA) gets the call for Texas. Stroman made his season debut against the New York Yankees on Sunday and received a no-decision after giving up four runs over five innings. Stroman was 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA for the Jays last season but was limited to only two starts in spring training because of a sore shoulder, " I telt really strong,” he told reporters after the game. “I don’t feel behind and I feel like my stuff is where I need it to be.” He has gone 1-1 with a 5.73 ERA in two career starts against the Rangers. Minor's 2018 debut (Sunday’s 8-2 loss to Houston, when allowing two runs on three hits and two walks with five strikeouts over 4 2/3 innings) was his first start since 2014. The 30-year-old was moved into the rotation by the Rangers after posting a career-low 2.55 ERA in relief with Kansas City last season. Minor is 2-0 in with a 1.69 ERA in four career games (two starts) against the Blue Jays. The pick: I expect the Rangers to be in for a long season (team owns a patchwork starting rotation) and in fact, home has hardly been where the heart is, lately. Texas has gone 4-14 in its last 18 home games dating back to Sept. 9, 201 and the Jays come in averaging 5.50 RPG, the fifth-best mark in MLB. Texas has opened 1-4 at home in 2018, allowing 6.00 RPG. Make Toronto an 8* play. |
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04-07-18 | Dodgers -118 v. Giants | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The rivalry between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants was put on hold Friday when a major storm forced the first rainout at AT&T Park since 2006. The two long-time and bitter rivals opened the 2018 season with a four-game series against each other. That match-up provided a rarity, as the Giants won the first two games by identical 1-0 scores, before the Dodgers won the final two games of the series by scores of 5-0 and 9-0. The teams will attempt to start an abbreviated two-game series on Saturday and just maybe, each will score at least once in today's game. After splitting their four-game series against the Giants, the Dodgers went to Arizona and got swept in a three-game series by the Diamondbacks, scoring only one run in the final two contests. The 2-5 Dodgers are hoping to jump-start their offense against the Giants, who hit four home HRs in Wednesday’s 10-1 victory over Seattle to even their record at 3-3. The pitching matchup: Rich Hill (1-0, 0.00 ERA) takes the mound for LA and Chris Stratton (0-1, 5.06 ERA) for San Fran. Hill tossed six scoreless innings against the Giants last Sunday, allowing five hits with five strikeouts in the Dodgers’ 9-0 victory. A concern may be that Hill posted a 4.06 ERA in 11 road starts last season, compared to a 2.77 ERA in 14 outings at Dodger Stadium. Hill has spent a majority of his 14-year career in the American League and has never won at AT&T Park, going 0-1 with a 3.91 ERA in four career starts. However, he is 6-2 with a 2.33 ERA in 12 career starts against the Giants. Stratton took the loss against the Dodgers on Sunday (opposite Hill) after giving up three runs with four strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings. Stratton has bounced between the minors and majors for the past two seasons but earned a spot in the rotation after posting a 3.29 ERA over 27 1/3 innings in spring training and drawing raves for his improved curveball. The pick: I noted that Stratton earned a spot in the Giants' starting rotation to open the 2018 season but that was only possible because of spring training injuries to Madison Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija. He owns a 1-2 record and 5.91 ERA in four career games (including three starts) against the Dodgers. In contrast, despite battling blister problems over the past two years, the Dodgers won 14 of Hill's last 21 starts in 2017, before going 3-1 in his four postseason starts. He went 2-0 with a 1.62 ERA in three starts last season against the Giants and in his season debut last Sunday, threw six scoreless innings against them, allowing five hits with five strikeouts. Don't see much changing here. Make the Dodgers a 10* play. |
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04-07-18 | Cubs -149 v. Brewers | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Milwaukee Brewers led the National League Central, and the defending World Series champs (Chicago Cubs), for most of the summer, only to fall down the stretch. The Cubs and Brewers opened a four-game series at Miller Park on Thursday, with the Cubs winning 8-0. The loss meant that Milwaukee had been blanked in two straight games and its scoreless streak continued through four innings Friday, before the Brewers busted out with a pair of two-run homers during a four-run fifth. A run in the ninth gave the Brewers a 5-4 win, their third one-run victory of the season, their second walk-off win in four games and their third win in their last at-bat. The Cubs’ bullpen continued its outstanding work with three scoreless innings to keep the game tied before Milwaukee’s ninth-inning rally. The loss dropped the Cubs to 0-4 when scoring four or fewer runs, while they are 3-0 when scoring more than four. The pitching matchup: The series is tied at one game apiece, as Yu Darvish (0-0, 10.38 ERA) squares off against Zach Davies (0-1, 9.53). Darvish, the Cubs' $126 million off-season acquisition, did not fare well in his first appearance for Chicago. He served up a two-run HR in the opening inning at Miami and couldn't get out of the fifth, allowing five runs and five hits over 4 1/3 innings in a no-decision (Cubs won 10-6). Only 59 of his 102 pitches were strikes in that outing, as he struggled to command his fastball, walked two batters and hitting two more, plus he generated only nine swinging strikes. Davies was the Brewers' leader last year in victories (17), starts (33) and innings (191 1/3),as Milwaukee went 20-13 in his starts, plus-$880 vs. the moneyline (12th-best among all starters). He had a rough outing Monday against St. Louis in his 2018 debut, allowing seven runs (six earned) and eight hits in 5 2/3 innings. Davies is 5-4 with a 3.90 ERA in 10 starts against the Cubs, including a 2-2 record with a 3.66 ERA against Chicago last season. The pick: The Brewers have five wins this season and all but one of them have been won in the final inning: As noted above, the Cubs are 0-4 when scoring four or fewer runs, while they are 3-0 when scoring more than four. I believe Davies pitched way over his head last season and that Darvish, greatly underachieved. With that in mind, I'll make the Cubs a 8* play in this one. |
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04-06-18 | Braves v. Rockies -145 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -145 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The 4-2 Atlanta Braves open a nine-game road trip Friday at Coors Field against the 4-3 Colorado Rockies, who will being playing their home opener of the 2018 season. Freddie Freeman put together a strong opening six weeks in 2017 before a fractured wrist sidelined him for two months and the first baseman again is off to a great start He's batting 421 and enters Friday leading or close to the major-league lead in runs scored (nine), RBI (nine), walks (10) and on-base percentage (.621). Freeman is getting help from some surprising sources, including left fielder Preston Tucker (two HRs, eight RBI in 21 at-bats) and third baseman Ryan Flaherty (10-for-23 with four doubles for a career .220 hitter). Colorado capped a 4-3 road trip (at Arizona and San Diego) to start the season with a 3-1 victory Thursday in vs. the Padres, taking advantage of three walks and an error in a three-run ninth. Second baseman D.J. LeMahieu singled home two runs in the ninth and finished 2-for-4, raising his average to .320. Center fielder Charlie Blackmon also collected two hits and brings a slash line of .345/.406/.828 into the opener of the three-game series. The pitching matchup: Brandon McCarthy (1-0, 3.38 ERA) gets his second start of the season for Atlanta and will be opposed by the Rockies' German Marquez (0-0, 0.00 ERA), who also makes his second start of the young season. McCarthy benefited from a huge uprising by the Braves offense to win his Atlanta debut Saturday, a 15-2 rout of the Philadelphia in which he gave up two runs on six hits with five strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings. He pitched well for the Los Angeles Dodgers last season before a variety of injuries limited his availability in the second half but McCarthy posted a 3.45 ERA in spring training. . The pick: Atlanta enters Friday leading the majors in runs scored (48) and team batting average (.297). Yes, McCarthy had a good first start for Atlanta but is just 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA in 10 games (nine starts) against the Rockies and 0-2 with a 7.94 ERA in four games (three starts) at Coors Field, where he has yielded 23 hits, including four HRs and seven walks in 17 innings with nine strikeouts. Marquez will make his first career appearance against the Braves, but is 7-3 with a 4.29 ERA in 16 career appearances at home. In 15 starts at Coors Field, the Rockies have gone 10-5. The Rockies are 15-10 in home openers but have never played the Braves in one. Seven of Colorado's past eight home openers and 13 of its past 15 have been against National League West opponents. I'm making Colorado a 10* play. |
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04-05-18 | Cubs -118 v. Brewers | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: National League Central rivals Chicago and Milwaukee open a four-game series tonight. Both are coming off shutout losses, with the Cubs coming off back-to-back ones. The Brewers had won four of their first five behind a strong offense but they were blanked 6-0 on Wednesday in the finale of a three-game home series against St. Louis. Milwaukee collected 19 extra-base hits in its first five games before managing just five singles in the shutout loss. The Cubs haven’t scored since Saturday, as they were blanked 6-0 at Miami on Sunday and 1-0 at Cincinnati the following day before being rained out on Tuesday (Cubs had an off day on Wednesday). The 2-3 Cubs have scored 18 runs in their two wins and just one in their three losses, including a 17-inning game. The season is barely a week old but this series will almost certainly have a playoff-like atmosphere at Miller Park this weekend. The Milwaukee Brewers led the National League Central, and the defending World Series champs, for most of the summer, only to fall down the stretch. The pitching matchup: Jon Lester (0-0, 8.10 ERA) takes the mound for the second time in 2018 for the Cubs and will be opposed by Milwaukee lefty Brent Suter (1-0, 5.40 ERA). Lester struggled on Opening Day against the Marlins, lasting only 3 1/3 innings after allowing four runs (three earned) on seven hits. lester is a notoriously slow starter, as he’s 15-17 in March and April and has a winning record in every other month. Lester is 3-2 with a 2.77 ERA in six career starts against the Brewers. Suter won his season debut Friday at San Diego, allowing three runs and five hits over five innings. Suter made 22 appearances (including 14 starts) in 2017, going 3-2 with a 3,42 ERA (Brewers were 9-5, +$421 in his starts). He has been very solid at home throughout his young career, going 4-1 with a 3.23 ERA in 20 games (eight starts) at Miller Park. He’s 1-0 with a 3.14 ERA in six outings (two starts) against the Cubs. The pick: The last time these two teams met was a four-game September series in Milwaukee (Sep. 21-24). The Cubs arrived looking to snuff out Milwaukee's fading hopes at regaining the division lead. Each of the first three games went 10 innings. Chicago took the first two and was a strike away from winning the third in regulation but Orlando Arcia hit a game-tying home run off closer Wade Davis. Jon Jay put the Cubs up in the 10th with an RBI single but a walk-off home run from Travis Shaw in the bottom of the inning gave Milwaukee the victory. However, Jose Quintana, the Cubs' marquee mid-season acquisition, shut Milwaukee out in the finale 5-0 and the Cubs went on to win the division crown. It's only early April but this series figured to be fun. Forget fun, take the veteran Lester over Suter, who has just 17 career starts. Make Chicago a 10* play. |
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04-05-18 | Mets v. Nationals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -138 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The 4-2 Washington Nationals will finally get a game in their home park, as the Mets visit the nation's capital on Thursday for Washington's 2018 home opener. The Mets bring a 4-1 record into the first of a three-game series this afternoon, led by a dominating group of pitchers who have allowed a total of just 13 runs in team's 4-1 start, after Noah Syndergaard (2-0 but 5.40 ERA) and four relievers combined to allow five hits in Wednesday's 4-2 win over the Philadelphia Phillies at home. Syndergaard, the team's Opening Day starter, has allowed six of the team's 13 ERs on the season, meaning the rest of the staff has posted a 1.80 ERA. The Nationals burst out of the gate with four wins but on Wednesday, they dropped their second straight 7-1 in Atlanta. Washington didn't hit or field well behind Max Scherzer (1-1), who allowed five runs (just two earned) on six hits over five innings. The pitching matchup: Jacob deGrom (1-0, 1.59 ERA) goes for the Mets and Stephen Strasburg (1-0, 1.42 ERA) for the Nats, an outstanding pitching matchup between two pitchers, both of whom won their season debuts with solid outings. DeGrom allowed a run and four hits in 5 2/3 innings to lead the Mets to a 6-2 win over St. Louis on Saturday, striking out seven against one walk. He boasts a 2.77 ERA in 12 career starts against the Nationals and is 4-1 in six starts at Washington. Strasburg also recorded seven strikeouts and allowed three runs (one earned) while lasting into the seventh inning in his win over Cincinnati on Saturday, improving to 31-8 over his last three seasons. His personal winning streak is up to six dating to last season and he won each of his last four outings at home in 2017. The former No. 1 pick is 8-4 with a 2.64 ERA lifetime versus New York. The pick: Washington won 13 of 19 meetings last season, winning the NL East by 20 games a year ago (New York finished 27 games back!). Will it be any different this year? It's hard not to see Washington winning close to 95 games again this season (Nats have averaged 93.5 wins per season over the last six) but if New York's pitching staff remains healthy, the Mets could be 90-win team in 2018. Let's say Under in this one and make it an 8* play. |
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04-04-18 | White Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The AL East is loaded and not much was expected from the Blue Jays. Toronto opened the 2018 season with a four-game series against the NYY and promptly lost the first two games, 6-1 and 4-2. That was no way to start but the Jays rebounded to take the final two games against the Yankees and then the first two of this three-game home series with the White Sox. The now 4-2 Blue Jays have homered in each of their first six contests, tying the second-longest streak to begin a season in franchise history. Toronto aims for its fifth straight victory, and seventh consecutive game with at least one HR), when it hosts the Chicago White Sox in the finale of a three-game series on Wednesday night. The White Sox opened the 2018 season 2-0 but have now lost two in a row. However, Chicago has slugged 12 HRs in just four contests. The pitching matchup: Carson Fulmer (2017: 3-1, 3.86 ERA) makes his first start of 2018 for Chicago, while Aaron Sanchez (0-1, 6.35 ERA) looks for a better outcome than in his first outing, for Toronto. Fulmer was outstanding in September for the White Sox, going 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA in six games (four starts / team was 3-1). However, the 24-year-old struggled this spring. That said, the White Sox want to see him in the rotation,where he has proven to be capable, albeit in limited opportunities. Fulmer will be facing the Blue Jays for the first time. Sanchez drew a tough assignment in his season debut, getting the call against the New York Yankees. He allowed four ERs on eight hits over 5 2/3 innings, with four walks hurting his cause. Sanchez was limited to just eight starts last season (1-3 with a 4.25 ERA / team was 3-5 in his starts) because of a blister problem on a finger, a split finger nail and a strained ligament on his right middle finger. His final start of the 2017 season was July 19. The pick: Fulmer was 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA in seven games with Chicago that included five starts. In his final four starts, he was 2-0 (team was 3-1) with a 1.56 ERA. I expect Fulmer tp pitch well and for the Toronto bats to be much 'quieter' after the Blue Jays set a season high for runs in Tuesday's 14-5 victory (15 hits). Also, remember that when Sanchez was healthy enough to make 30 starts in 2016, he was 15-2 with 3.00 ERA. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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04-03-18 | Rangers v. A's -131 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -131 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rangers and A's each opened the season 1-3 and last night, the A's won 3-1 in the first of a four-game series. Pitching dominated Monday's series opener, with No. 5 starters Bartolo Colon and Andrew Triggs both coming up with strong performances in a game the Athletics won by scoring late against the Texas bullpen.Jed Lowrie's two-run double off the Rangers' third pitcher, left-hander Jake Diekman, produced the difference-making runs in the seventh inning, as the A's ended a three-game slide. Matt Chapman provided the other run for the Athletics, going deep for a second consecutive game to help the team post its first win since Opening Day. Texas was unable to record an extra-base hit in the series opener, collecting seven singles en route to its third defeat in a row. The pitching matchup: Cole Hamels (0-1, 4.76 ERA) makes his second start of the season for Texas, as does Kendall Graveman (0-0, 9.00) of Oakland. Hamels took the loss on Opening Day, allowing three runs on five hits and four walks in 5 2/3 innings against Houston. He served up a pair of HRs but did record seven strikeouts, which was one shy of his season high in 2017. Hamels has made seven career starts against Oakland, going 2-3 with a 4.39 ERA. Graveman was fortunate to escape with a no-decision against the Los Angeles Angels in the season opener, after surrendering five runs and seven hits (including three HRs) in five-plus innings. Graveman has posted a 4-2 record and 4.11 ERA in eight career starts against the Rangers. The pick: Hamels will be facing an Athletics' lineup that has lost most of its power since getting HRs from Khris Davis and Matt Olson on Opening Day. The A's have hit only two more HRs in the last four games, both by Matt Chapman. Oakland's three-run total Monday gave them just 11 in their last four games. Texas got seven hits in the series opener (all singles), totaling just 10 extra-base hits, including four HRs, in their first five games. Both teams figure to have long seasons and tonight, the Rangers' will continue. Make Oakland a 10* play. |
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04-03-18 | Dodgers -163 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -163 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Th 2-3 LA Dodgers will be in Arizona again tonight for the second of a three-game series with the 3-1 Diamondbacks. LA's Kenley Jansen has been one of the most reliable closers in the game the last two seasons. However, he gave up his second HR in two appearances this season on Monday, when Chris Owings belted a game-tying three-run blast with two outs in the ninth. Arizona went on to win 8-7, when Nick Ahmed and Jeff Mathis each drove in a run off Wilmer Font in the bottom of the 15th inning, after the Dodgers had taken a one-run lead in the top half. Arizona has won its last seven regular-season meetings with the Dodgers. Tonight, both teams will be looking for their starting pitchers to go deep into the game, after combining to use 15 relievers in Monday’s contest, which lasted nearly six hours. The pitching matchup: Clayton Kershaw (0-1, 1.50 ERA) takes the mound for LA and Zack Godley (2017: 8-9, 3.37) makes his first start of the 2018 season for Arizona. Kershaw made his franchise-record eighth consecutive Opening Day start on Thursday but lost for the first time, despite giving up just one run (on a solo HR) over six innings in a 1-0 loss to San Francisco. After tossing 21 1/3 scoreless frames across six spring starts, the three-time Cy Young Award winner was nearly as impressive in the opener, striking out seven while walking two. Godley stepped into a starting role when Shelby Miller went down early with an elbow injury last season, was 8-9 with a 3.37 ERA in 26 appearances, including 25 starts. He appears primed to build on last season's breakout performance, when he set career highs in starts (25), wins (eight), innings (155) and strikeouts (165). The pick: Many think that Godley may be primed for success this year, using a four-pitch mix that includes a curve ball that he can get into the high-80 mph range. However, he's really no match for Kershaw, who is 14-8 with a 2.55 ERA in 26 career starts against Arizona. He was 2-0 in two starts against the Diamondbacks in the 2017 regular season, giving up one run and six hits in 15 1/3 innings. Both games were at Dodger Stadium, where he also beat the Diamondbacks in Game 1 of the NLCS. Godley was 1-1 with a 3.93 ERA in three starts against the Dodgers last season after pitching primarily in relief against them in parts of the previous two seasons. Make LA an 8* play. |
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04-02-18 | Rangers v. A's -136 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: AL West Rivals Texas and Oakland will get together for a four-game series starting Monday night in Oakland. The Rangers lost three of four at home to the reigning World Series champion Houston Astros to open the 2018 season, while the A's also dropped three of four at home to the Los Angeles Angels. Texas struggled offensively against the Astros' powerful pitching staff, scoring a total of just 11 runs in the four games. The A's split a pair of one-run decisions Thursday and Friday vs the Angels but then Oakland's pitching staff was 'lit up' in the final two games of the series, allowing 15 runs on 25 hits in back-to-back losses over the weekend. The pitching matchup: The Ranger will turn to Bartolo Colon (2017: 7-14, 6.48 ERA), who will pitching for his 11th major league team. In contrast to the 44-year-old Colon, the Angels counter with the 29-year-old Andrew Triggs (2017: 5-6, 4.27 ERA), who has made just 36 ML appearances (18 starts) in parts of the last two seasons. Colon has 240 career wins and 2,454 strikeouts but he was pretty awful last year (see above), after earning 14 victories in four straight seasons. Colon is 9-6 with 3.41 ERA in 21 career appearances (20 starts) against the Athletics. Triggs went 4-1 with a 1.84 ERA in April last season but struggled after that while allowing 68 hits in 65 1/3 innings in 12 starts overall, before undergoing season-ending hip surgery in July. The pick: These two teams were overshadowed during the season's opening week, Texas by the defending champion Astros and Oakland by MLB's most popular newcomer, the Angels' Shohei Ohtani. Neither expect to compete with Houston for the AL West title plus neither figure to be serious wild card contenders, either. The Athletics won 11 of 19 meetings last season and on the season, were a solid 46-35 at home in 2017, going plus-$1309 vs. the moneyline. I believe Colon's done being able to get ML hitters out regularly, plus Triggs has been brilliant in his young career against the Rangers, having allowed just one ER and five hits in 12 2/3 innings (0.71 ERA) over three games, including two starts. Make Oakland a 10* play. |
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04-02-18 | Royals v. Tigers -111 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither the KC Royals nor Detroit Tigers were expected to be serious playoff contenders in 2018 and each team flopped badly in this season's opening four-day weekend, despite playing at home. The Royals were rained out Sunday against the White Sox, after losing 14-7 on Thursday and 4-3 on Saturday. As for the Tigers, their season-opener against the Pirates was postponed on Thursday and they then lost Friday 13-10 in 13 innings. Saturday's game was again the victim of bad weather, before Detroit lost both ends of Sunday's doubleheader with Pittsburgh, 1-0 and 8-6. It seems like much longer ago than 2015, that Kansas City dethroned Detroit as "the boss team" in the American League Central Division. When the teams meet Monday afternoon to open a three-game series at Comercia Park, KC enters 0-2 and Detroit 0-3. The pitching matchup: The Royals will send Jason Hammel (2017: 8-13, 5.29) to the mound, while the Tigers counter with lefty Francisco Liriano (2017: 6-7, 5.66 ERA). KC manager Ned Yost pushed Sunday's scheduled starter, Jason Hammel, back to Monday. Hammel is coming off his worst season since his 2007 rookie campaign, as the Royals went 11-21 in his 32 starts, losing $947 against the moneyline. He started five times against Detroit last season but was only 1-0 with a 4.13 ERA (note: KC was 4-1 in his five starts vs. Det.). Hammel is a modest 3-2 with a 6.09 ERA over 14 games against the Tigers, 11 of them starts. Liriano is pitching for his sixth different team since 2012 (pitched for Toronto & Houston in 2017) and is looking to bounce back after posting his highest ERA since 2009. His new home hasn’t been kind to him, as the 34-year-old is 4-7 with a 5.80 ERA in 15 career games (12 starts) at Comerica Park. However, Liriano has fared slightly better against the Royals, going 7-5 with a 4.36 ERA in 19 contests (16 starts), including a win last season. The pick: Detroit had a win wiped off the board on Friday, when the apparent winning run was overturned by replay, leading to a 13-10 loss in 13 innings.The Tigers look to jump on Hammel, coming off an ugly season and they are hoping his early-season struggles of 2017 (Hammel went 0-3 last April over five starst, as KC went 0-5 while he posted a 6.65 ERA!) will resume here. Plus, the Tigers will welcome a shot at a Kansas City bullpen that has allowed 12 runs and 11 hits (including 4 HRs) over eight innings. Detroit's new manger Ron Gardenhire joked that Detroit is 1-2, still rankled about the overturning of what would have been a game-winning single in the 10th inning Friday afternoon. He gets that "official" first win of 2018, here. Make the Tigers an 8* play. |
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04-01-18 | Giants v. Dodgers -171 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dodgers opened the season by getting shutout in back-to-back 1-0 losses to the hated Giants, then broke through for the first time in 2018 by beating the Giants on Saturday with a shutout of their own, 5-0. The Dodgers had just four hits in the win, after getting only a combined seven in losing Thursday and Friday. The team's lack of offense is a concern but the starting pitching has been outstanding, with Kenta Maeda being no exception in last night's win. He struck out 10 over five innings in Saturday’s 5-0 victory as the Dodgers recorded their first win following those back-to-back 1-0 losses. Joe Panik’s two solo HRs on Thursday and Friday were enough for the Giants to open 2-0 but last night, the team's nine hits did not produce a run, as the Giants went 0-10 with RISP and left 10 men on base. The Giants’ bullpen has been outstanding, with Hunter Strickland taking for Mark Melancon (right elbow) to lead a rejuvenated group that hasn’t allowed a run over nine innings in the first three games. The pitching matchup: Chris Stratton (2017: 4-4, 3.68 ERA) will start for the Giants and LA sends lefty Rich Hill (2017: 12-8, 3.32 ERA) to the mound. Stratton has bounced between the minors and majors for the last two seasons but earned a spot in the rotation after posting a 3.29 ERA over 27 1/3 innings this spring,while drawing raves for his improved curveball. He owns a 1-1 record and 6.75 ERA in three career games (two starts) against the Dodgers. In contrast to Stratton, Hill registered a 7.30 ERA across 12 1/3 innings in four spring training games, including a rough five-inning stint against the Los Angeles Angels on Monday. He has battled blister problems over the past two years but the Dodgers won 14 of his last 21 starts in 2017, before going 3-1 in his four postseason starts. He is 5-2 with a 2.43 ERA in 11 career starts versus the Giants, including 2-0 with a 1.62 ERA in three starts last season. The pick: Sure, the Giants won the first two games of this series but the Giants are batting .131 as a team, are 1-for-21 with runners in scoring position, have struck out 27 times in their first 27 innings and newcomer Evan Longoria is hitless in his first 11 at-bats. It's no surprise then to learn that LA pitching owns an 0.67 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in the three-game series so far. No team had a better home record than LA did last year (57-24), while no team performed worse on the road than the Giants (26-55). Make LA an 8* play. |
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04-01-18 | Cardinals -123 v. Mets | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The St. Louis Cardinals remained in the wild-card chase until game No. 159 last season, while the NY Mets began "looking ahead" to 2018 by the All Star break. However, both teams opened the current season with optimism. The Cards have made winning seem like a birthright since the last round of expansion, making the playoffs in 12 of the last 20 years and have missed the postseason in back-to-back years just twice, 2007-08 and 2016-17. The Mets won 90 games in 2015 and then made it to the World Series, before making the playoffs as a wild card team in 2016 with 87 wins. Therefore, last year's 70-win season was to say the least, a huge disappointment. St. Louis responded to a second straight playoff absence by shaking up the coaching staff. Mike Maddux was hired as pitching coach while franchise icons Jose Oquendo and Willie McGee, who were already working for the organization, were named the third base coach and assistant coach, respectively. Marcell Ozuna (.312, 7 HRs & 124 RBI) was part of Miami's off-season fire sale and the Cards landed the promising 27-year-old. He joins an outfield that rivals the best in the majors, with Tommy Pham (.306, 23 HRs, 73 RBI, 95 runs scored & 25 stolen bases) and Dexter Fowler (.264, 18 HRs, &64 RBI) looking to help the Cardinals improve upon their 83-79 campaign in 2017. The Mets have a new manager in Mickey Callaway calling the shots and the team believes that it made wise off-season investments. The team's 70-92 mark in 2017 loosened the purse strings as outfielder Jay Bruce (three years, $39 million), third baseman Todd Frazier (two years, $17 million), left-hander Jason Vargas (two years, $16 million) and right-hander Anthony Swarzak (two years, $14 million) signed contracts. However, a return to health of what could be an excellent starting staff, will be a must. The 2018 season could not have gotten off to a better two-game start for the New York Mets, which conversely means that everything that could go wrong has gone wrong for the St. Louis Cardinals. Yes, it's only two games into the 2018 season but the Mets appear to have their power pitching back. Two days after Noah Syndergaard fanned 10 hitters in Thursday's season opener, Jacob deGrom and three relievers combined for 12 Ks in a 6-2 victory Saturday, giving New York pitchers 27 strikeouts through the season’s first 18 innings. New York has not lacked for offensive production in the series either, scoring 15 runs in two games. As for the Cards, they are hitting .194 as a team, have gone 2-for-15 with runners in scoring position and their bullpen has surrendered six runs in seven innings in their 0-2 start . The pitching matchup: St. Louis will send Luke Weaver (2017: 7-2, 3.88 ERA) to the mound this afternoon, while the New York counter with lefty Steven Matz (2017: 2-7, 6.08). The 24-year-old Weaver allowed more than two ERs just once in his first 11 appearances last season (including eight starts), going 7-1 with a 2.05 ERA. However, he then surrendering 14 ERs in his final two outings. Weaver was outstanding in spring training, holding opponents to a .113 batting average with a 0.67 WHIP, 19 strikeouts and one run allowed in 16 1/3 innings, so he sure looks ready to to solidify his spot in the St. Louis rotation. Matz suffered through elbow issues and eventual surgery that limited him to only 13 starts a season ago. The Mets went 3-10 in his starts and along with that bloated 6.08 ERA, he had a 1.53 WHIP while opponents batted .305 against him. Matz only allowed four ERs over his final 18 1/3 innings in the spring (plus reported no health issues) but overall, he owned a 6.30 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. The pick: Mickey Callaway is a rookie manager and is the first New York skipper since Joe Torre in 1977 to win his first two games at the helm. The fast start has been fueled by a balanced attack, as 10 players have scored at least one run, while eight have at least one RBI for the Mets. Will the Mets open 3-0 for the first time since winning their first four games in 2012? The Cardinals are looking to avoid starting 0-3 for the first time since 2016 (no so long ago) but I like them here, taking Weaver over Matz. Weaver was impressive in 2017 (save those last two starts) plus looked outstanding in the spring (see above). Meanwhile, Matz lost his lone career start against the Cardinals back on July 9 (he allowed five runs over 4 1/3 innings as the Mets fell 6-0 at Busch Stadium), a defeat began a season-ending eight-start stretch for Matz in which he went 0-6 (team was1-7) with a 10.19 ERA. No sweep here. Make St. Louis a 10* play. |
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03-31-18 | Phillies v. Braves -110 | Top | 2-15 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Philly manager Gabe Kapler said he plans to lighten the load of the starting rotation by leaning heavily on his relievers this season but raised eyebrows by lifting starter Aaron Nola in the bottom of the sixth inning after just 68 pitches with a commanding 5-0 lead on opening Day. The new manager saw his bullpen implode, as five relievers allowed seven runs in just 3 1/3 innings of an 8-5 loss! However. Philly's bullpen was better last night, as eight relievers allowed just one run over seevn innings as the Philles won 5-4 in 11 innings. Philadelphia signed first baseman Carlos Santana (57 HRs the last two years with Cleveland) in the off-season in hopes that he would provide a power bat in the heart of their lineup. Santana homered and drove in the go-ahead run in Friday’s 5-4, 11-inning victory, while teammate Rhys Hoskins (18 HRs in 50 games last year as a rookie) went deep for the first time in 2018. Atlanta committed three errors and left nine runners on base Friday. First baseman Freddie Freeman walked three times for the second consecutive game, while shortstop Dansby Swanson collected three hits, drove in a run and scored once. The loss was particularly painful for Atlanta, which lost Kurt Suzuki when he was hit by a pitch in the right hand Friday - one day after fellow catcher Tyler Flowers left Thursday’s opener in the first inning with an oblique injury that landed him on the disabled list. The pitching matchup: Vince Velasquez (2017: 2-7, 5.13 ERA) will get the ball for the Phillies, while the Braves will give Brandon McCarthy (2017: 6-4, 3.98) his first start with his latest team. Velasquez strained a flexor muscle early last season and surgery to repair a vascular issue in a finger ended his season in August. Velasquez was 8-6 with a 4.12 ERA in 24 starts in 2016 but in just 15 starst last year, saw his ERA go up a run (team was only in all of his starts). He allowed 15 HR in those 15 starts (total of only 72 innings) but finished spring training at 2-2 with a 2.51 ERA in five starts (14 1/3 innings). McCarthy was acquired from the Dodgers in the Matt Kemp trade this off-season, after the 34-year-old McCarthy battled shoulder, knee and finger injuries that limited him to three regular-season appearances after July 20. It short-circuited a good season in which McCarthy posted a 3.12 ERA with 58 strikeouts in his first 14 starts. Limited to 14 total appearances in 2015-16, McCarthy has been healthy this spring and finished camp with a 3.45 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP while holding opponents to a .193 batting average. The pick: The two teams combined to use 16 pitchers Friday, so both clubs could use a solid outing from their respective starters. Velasquez gave up six hits in seven shutout innings in his only 2017 appearance against Atlanta, while McCarthy, who began his career in the American League, has faced the Phillies just three times, going 0-1 with a 2.70 ERA. He had a no-decision last season, allowing eight hits and four runs in five innings.I'm sticking with the home team here and making the Braves a 10* play. |
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03-31-18 | Indians v. Mariners UNDER 7 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Seattle Mariners' Nelson Cruz belted a two-run, first-inning HR off reigning American League Cy Young winner Corey Kluber in a 2-1 victory in Thursday's Opening Day game. Longtime Seattle ace Felix Hernandez was sidelined by injuries in 2017 and pitched fewer than 100 innings, going 6-5 (4.36 ERA) in just 16 starts. However, despite making only two appearances in spring training, King Felix got the call on Thursday for his 10th consecutive opening day start. He pitched 5 1/3 scoreless innings of two-hit ball plus five relievers made Cruz's HR stand up. Lonnie Chisenhall doubled and scored the only run on Yan Gomes’ bloop single in the 7th inning for Cleveland, which left the tying run at third base in the ninth. Kluber was solid (8 IP / 6 hits / 2 ERs) but as Gomes noted, “Two runs usually doesn’t get us. But they pitched really well. It’s one of those things when you’re battling Kluber, the best is going to come out of everyone.” The pitching matchup: Carlos Carrasco (2017: 18-6, 3.29 ERA) takes the mound for Cleveland up against Seattle's James Paxton (2017: 12-5, 2.98), after the teams combined for just 11 hits and went 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position on Thursday. Carrasco looks to carry over the success from an outstanding 2017 season when he finished fourth in the American League Cy Young voting with career highs in wins, strikeouts (226), innings (200) and starts (32). The team was 24-8 in all of his starts (plus-$1062, which was 7th-best among all starters) and was 11-2 with a 2.65 ERA on the road, before pitching 5 2/3 scoreless innings at the New York Yankees in the playoffs without getting a decision. Paxton took over the role of Seattle's ace last season, with King Felix making only 16 starts. Paxton is primed for a big campaign after the oft-injured lefty put together his best season in 2017, finishing with career highs in wins, starts (24), innings (136) and strikeouts (156). He was named the AL's Pitcher of the Month in July when he won all six of his starts. He was 7-3 with a 2.45 ERA at home last season as opposed to 5-2 with a 3.66 mark on the road while allowing just nine HRs overall. The pick: Let me run some numbers by you again. First off, the teams combined for just 11 hits and went 1-for-8 with RISP on Thursday. As for today's two starters, Carrasco owned a 2.65 ERA on the road in 2017, while Paxton produced a 2.45 ERA at Safeco. Let's not over-think this. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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03-30-18 | Phillies v. Braves -115 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Braves beat the Phillies 8-5 on Opening Day, as Freddie Freeman opened the floodgates with a two-run HR, Ozhaino Albies added a solo shot and Nick Markakis provided the final dagger with a walk-off, three-run blast in the ninth inning Philly manager Gabe Kapler said he plans to lighten the load of the starting rotation by leaning heavily on his relievers this season but raised eyebrows by lifting starter Aaron Nola in the bottom of the sixth inning after just 68 pitches with a commanding 5-0 lead. The new manager saw his bullpen implode, as five relievers allowed seven runs in just 3 1/3 innings! Maybe he has a Plan B? The pitching matchup: Nick Pivetta (2017: 8-10, 6.02 ERA) willl get the nod for the Phillies on Friday, opposed by Atlanta's Mike Foltynewicz (2017: 10-13, 4.79 ERA). Philadelphia optioned 2015 NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta to Advanced Class-A Clearwater on Thursday as he continues to round into shape for his expected first appearance on April 8. Pivetta took his lumps last season, allowing 144 hits (25 HRs) in 133 innings, fashioning a 1.51 WHIP. However, some positives were his 140 Ks in those 133 IP plus he ended his up-and-down rookie season with a 16-inning scoreless streak and had 19 strikeouts in his final three starts, allowing two runs, 11 hits and eight walks over 17 innings (1.06 ERA). Foltynewicz posted a 6.34 ERA following the All-Star break in 2017, after coming into the break on a 7-1 run from May 12 through July 6. He spent the off-season focusing his attention on his mechanics and pitched exclusively out of the stretch in the spring. The pick: Pivetta was 3-0 with a 2.12 ERA. against the Braves last season and Philly owned a 13-6 mark against Atlanta in 2017. However,only the SF Giants (with 26 wins) had a worse road record than Philly's 27-54 record in 2017 and yesterday's total collapse hardly inspires any confidence that things are about to change all that much in 2018. Remember, Foltynewicz was 10-2 in 16 starts (team was 13-3) from May 12 through August 5 before stumbling down the stretch. He can pitch and I'll make Atlanta a 10* play. |
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03-30-18 | Pirates v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 102 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Pittsburgh Pirates open a three-game interleague series Friday at the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers' home opener against the Pirates was postponed from Thursday to Friday afternoon because of inclement weather. The Tigers have a manager in Ron Gardenhire and he's got his work cut out for him, as Detroit has been picked to finish last in the American League Central Division by many experts. As for Pittsburgh, the Tigers begin a new era without their MVP center fielder and No. 1 starting pitcher. Perennial All-Star Andrew McCutchen was dealt to San Francisco , while right-hander Gerrit Cole was sent to Houston in the off-season. The pitching matchup: Ivan Nova (2017: 11-14, 4.14 ERA) will take the mound for Pittsburgh, while Detroit counters with Jordan Zimmermann (2017: 8-13, 6.08). Both hurlers look to rebound from disappointing seasons. Pittsburgh manager Clint Hurdle calls Nova the dean of a mostly young rotation. Nova came to camp 10 pounds lighter and determined to improve on an up and down season that ended with a combined record of 1-6 over 10 starts (Pirates went 2-8) in August and September. He gave up a career-most 29 HRs while pitching a career-high 187 innings in 2017.Gardenhire surprised a lot of people when he named rJordan Zimmermann as his Opening Day starter. Zimmermann has struggled mightily during his first two seasons in Detroit after signing a five-year, $110 million free-agent contract. He had an 8-13 record and 6.08 ERA last season (Tigers were 10-19 in his starts, minus-$678) the fewest games he's won since 2011, while posting the worst ERA of his career and allowing 29 HRs in 29 starts. The pick: Pittsburgh played poorly on the road last season (31-50, minus-$1171 vs. teh moneyline) but Detroit was even worse at home, going 34-47, minus-$3128 vs. the moneyline. Can one really trust either team in the early going? I think not but noting both Nova's amd Zimmermann's HR struggles (see above for a reminder) and that Nova is 0-3 with a 7.04 ERA in six games (five starts) lifetime versus the Tigers, while Zimmermann is 1-3 with a 3.96 ERA in four career starts against the Pirates, the Over looks like a solid 8* play. |
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03-29-18 | White Sox v. Royals -149 | Top | 14-7 | Loss | -149 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: The Kansas City Royals won the 1985 World Series but it wasn't until 2015 when KC returned to the postseason. The Royals made it to the World Series that season, before losing a dramtic seven-game series to Madison Bumgarner and the SF Giants. KC came right back the following year and captured the franchise's second-ever World Series title by beating the Mets in five games. However, reality has returned to KC, as the Royals own back-to-season of 81 and 80 wins. Kansas City opens the 2018 season with a three-game home series against the White Sox and it appears to be a rebuilding process for the Royals this season. The Royals lost a couple key contributors during the off-season when Eric Hosmer signed with the San Diego Padres and Lorenzo Cain joined the Milwaukee Brewers. Then this week, they lost five-time All-Star catcher Salvador Perez for at least for the next four-to-six weeks when he tore the MCL in his left knee on Tuesday night when he lost his balance while carrying luggage from spring training up the stairs of his house (that can't be a good sign!). There is a very different vibe for the Chicago White Sox, as they open the 2018 season. Chicago is hoping this is the year its rebuild moves into the next phase (meaning being able to reasonably compete for a playoff spot). The White Sox have a roster loaded with talented, young players. Infielders Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson and Yolmer Sanchez are expected to take the next step in their development and complement star first baseman Jose Abreu (.304, 33 Hrs & 102 RBI) and All-Star right fielder Avisail Garcia (.330, 18 HRs & 80 RBI). Second baseman Moncada and outfielder Nicky Delmonico will begin their first full seasons with the team, plus the same goes for right-hander pitchers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez, each of whom showed promise late last year. The pitching matchup: James Shields (2017: 5-7, 5.23 ERA) goes for Chicago and will be opposed by KC lefty Danny Duffy (2017: 9-10, 3.81). The veteran Shields is making his eighth Opening Day start for his fourth different team, which includes the Royals in 2013. He was awful in 2016 pitching for SD and then Chicago (those teams were a combined 9-24 in his starts, losing $1403 vs. the moneyline) but last year was better, as he finished strong by winning three of his last four starts (team was 9-12 in his 21 starts, going plus-$174 vs. the moneyline). Duffy takes the ball on Opening Day for the second straight year. He was coming off an excellent 2016 season (team was 12-3 with a 3.651 ERA and KC was 17-9 in his 26 starts, going plus-648 vs. the moneyline) and struck out eight while allowing just one run over six innings at Minnesota last season in his 2017 debut.. However, Duffy couldn't repeat his 2016 season, going 9-10 with a 3.81 ERA last year. He left his last spring start with shoulder tightness but threw on Sunday and reported he was ready for the opener. The pick: I'm no fan of Shields, whose moniker "Big Game James" has to be among the most ludicrous in any sport (he's never won a single thing!). Note that he's struggled at Kauffman Stadium, even when he was with the Royals, as he comes in with a 9-13 record with a 4.35 ERA in 36 career starts there. The White Sox struggled on the road last season (28-53) and were also just 20-26 against lefties on the entire season. Meanwhile, KC did go a respectable 43-38 at home, so I'll go against the infamous "Big Game James" and make KC a 10* play. |
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03-29-18 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +1.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -124 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: The Yankees surprised many by hiring Aaron Boone as their new manager (first-ever managerial job) but taht news was overshadowed by their off-season acquisition of Giancarlo Stanton. The Yankees took the Astros in seven games in the ALCS last season and now will pair Stanton, the NL's MVP, with Aaron Judge, the AL's rookie-of-the-year. The duo combined for 111 HRs in 2017. The Blue Jays finished 10 games below .500 in 2017, after making the playoffs in back-to-back years. More bad news is that the Jays enter 2018 with concerns over the left side of their infield, as oft-injured third baseman Josh Donaldson is dealing with general body soreness and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki is scheduled to see a specialist for a bone spur that sidelined him in spring training. Health is always a concern for second baseman Devon Travis, who missed the final 100 games last season, while the outfield will have a new look with National League imports Curtis Granderson and Randal Grichuk. The pitching matchup: Luis Severino (2017: 14-6, 2.98 ERA) blossomed into New York's ace in his third year, finishing third in the American League Cy Young voting and will get the Opening Day start. The pick: However, Severino has never defeated Toronto, going 0-3 with a 5.52 ERA in seven games, including six starts. He was 0-1 with a 4.97 ERA in two starts against the Blue Jays in 2017 (NYY were 0-2). In stark contrast, while Happ was limited to 25 starts last season because of injury, he was 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA in two starts in 2017 against the Yankees (Jays were 2-0) and he's 8-2 with a 3.51 ERA in 16 career starts against New York. Take the 1 1/2 runs and make Toronto an 8* play. |
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03-29-18 | Cardinals v. Mets -136 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The St. Louis Cardinals remained in the wild-card chase until game No. 159 last season, while the NY Mets began "looking ahead" to 2018 by the All Star break. However, both teams head into the current season with optimism. Starting with the Cards, they've made winning seem like a birthright since the last round of expansion. The Cards have made the playoffs in 12 of the last 20 years and have missed the postseason in back-to-back years just twice, 2007-08 and 2016-17. The team has no linterest in seeing 2018 become a 'hat trick.' As for the Mets, they won 90 games in 2015 and then made it to the World Series, before making the playoffs as a wild card team in 2016 with 87 wins. Therefore, last year's 70-win season was to say the least, a huge disappointment. St. Louis responded to the second straight playoff absence by shaking up the coaching staff. Mike Maddux was hired as pitching coach while franchise icons Jose Oquendo and Willie McGee, who were already working for the organization, were named the third base coach and assistant coach, respectively. All that activity around manager Mike Matheny gives off the perception that Matheny is on the hot seat entering his seventh season, even though he has directed the Cardinals to a 544-428 record during his tenure. Marcell Ozuna (.312, 7 HRs & 124 RBI) was part of Miami's off-season fire sale and teh Cards landed the promising 27-year-old. He joins an outfield that rivals the best in the majors, with Tommy Pham (.306, 23 HRs, 73 RBI, 95 runs scored & 25 stolen bases) and Dexter Fowler (.264, 18 HRs, &64 RBI) looking to help the Cardinals improve upon their 83-79 campaign in 2017. The Mets have a new manager in Mickey Callaway calling the shots and the team believes that it made wise off-season investments. The team's 70-92 mark in 2017 loosened the purse strings as outfielder Jay Bruce (three years, $39 million), third baseman Todd Frazier (two years, $17 million), left-hander Jason Vargas (two years, $16 million) and right-hander Anthony Swarzak (two years, $14 million) signed contracts. AHowever, a return to health of what could be an excellent starting staff, will be a must. The pitching matchup: The Cardinals send Carlos Martinez (2017: 12-11, 3.64 ERA) to the mound against the Mets' Noah Syndergaard (2017: 1-2, 2.97). Martinez is another in a long line of relievers turned starters for St. Louis. He receives his second consecutive Opening Day nod, after leading the team in quality starts (20), innings (205.0) and strikeouts (217) last season. He set career highs in strikeouts and innings pitched, plus in starts (32). However, he was victimized by the home-run ball in 2017, as he tied now former teammate Lance Lynn after being taken deep a club-high 27 times in 2017. Martinez is 3-2 with a 2.41 ERA in eight games (five starts) against the Mets, limiting them to a .220 batting average. Noah Syndergaard was a breakout star in 2016, going 14-9 with a 2.60 ERA and 218 Ks in 182 1/3 IP. However, he missed approximately five months of last season with a partial tear in his right lat, going just 1-2 (2.87 ERA) in seven starts (team was 2-5). The pick: I'm a big fan of Martinez who has won 42 games the last three seasons for the Cards but when healthy, Syndergaard is one of MLB's best pitchers. Note that Syndergaard had a 1.73 ERA and a 30/0 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first four starts last year before he tore his right lat muscle on April 30. He didn't return until making a pair of brief "peace of mind" starts in late September, during which he tossed three scoreless innings. He also looked good this spring, showing no ill effects from last year's injury woes, posting a 1.35 ERA while striking out 23 against just six walks in five Grapefruit League starts.Make the Mets an 8* play. |
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11-01-17 | Astros v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: It seems only fitting that the 2017 World Series will be decided in a winner-take-all Game 7. The LA bats 'woke up' just in time last night, as Chris Taylor hit a tying double off Justin Verlander during a two-run rally in the sixth inning with Corey Seager following with a go-ahead sacrifice fly. Joc Pederson then hit a 7th-inning HR against Joe Musgrove, pounding his chest and dancing around the bases. LA's 3-1 victory means this his dramatic Fall Classic is headed to an "ultimate Game 7!" Either the Los Angeles Dodgers will end a 29-year title drought or the Houston Astros will celebrate their first World Series championship come late Wednesday night. The pitching matchup: Lance McCullers will get the Game 7 nod for Houston and Yu Darvish for Los Angeles. It will be a rematch of Game 3, when McCullers gave up three runs on four hits with four walks over 5 1/3 innings, while Darvish allowed four runs on six hits while lasting just 1 2/3 innings. McCullers' two outings in the ALCS against the Yanks were also noteworthy. He got a no-decision in Game 4 but pitched six shut out innings, before allowing a lead-off HR in the seventh in Aaron Judge. He was taken out and the Yankees rallied against Houston's struggling bullpen. However, McCullers was called on in Game 7 of the ALCS and threw four scoreless innings (allowed one hit and had six Ks), to earn a save and help Houston reach the World Series. Then came his Game 3 performance (see above). Darvish's Game 3 performance marked the shortest start of his big league career. However, he entered that game on a roll. He had allowed just one ER over his final three regular season starts (19 1/3 innings), giving him an 0.47 ERA plus owned a 21-1 KW ratio in that stretch. He then won his first two postseason starts, allowing two ERs over 11.1 innings (1.59 ERA) with a 14-1 KW ratio. Doing the math, Darvish entered Game 3 of the World Series on a 4-1 run, having allowed three ERs over 30 2/3 innings (0.88 ERA) with a 35-2 KW ratio. Just where did his Game 3 effort come from? The pick: I've really liked what McCullers has shown in his last three postseason appearances (2.35 ERA) and I'm also expecting Darvish to rise to the occasion in what is the "biggest start" of his career. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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10-31-17 | Astros v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -125 | 35 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2017 World Series has already delivered two classic contests in Game 2 and 5, both of which were won by the Astros in extra-innings. If the Astros' 7-6 Game 2 victory last week was an instant classic, Houston's 13-12 win (10 innings) in Game 5 on Sunday might have actually topped it. This series is just five games old but the 22 combined HRs hit by the two teams has set a record for the most in World Series history and it's possible, there are still two games left to be played. The Astros sure hope there is just on game left, while the Dodgers are looking to send this series to a winner-take-all, Game 7 (hard to argue against that being a fitting conclusion). The storied Dodgers are in their first World Series since 1988 but for the Astros, there's no way to put into words what a World Series title would mean to a franchise that has made just one previous World Series appearance, which came back in 2005 when Houston was wept by the Chicago White Sox. Note that Houston's Game 2 win represented the franchise's first-ever World Series win! The pitching matchup: Justin Verlander is 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA in 10 total appearances (nine starts) since joining the Astros and A.J. Hinch will send the 34-year-old to the mound with hopes of avoiding a Game 7. Rich Hill takes the mound for LA, coming off a 12-8 (3.32 ERA) season, with the Dodgers going 15-10 in his 25 regular season starts. He's yet to earn a decision in three postseason starts but owns a 2.77 ERA and LA has won two of the three games he's started. Verlander only gave up only two hits in his Game 2 outing at Dodger Stadium but both were HRs, to Joc Pederson and Corey Seager. He left trailing 3-1 but the Astros would come back to win 7-6 in 11 innings. Hill was the recipient of a quick hook from manager Dave Roberts despite giving up one run and three hits and striking out seven in four innings his Game 2 start, opposite Verlander, However, Roberts hinted that Hill will have a 'longer leash' in Game 6 and the 37-year-old proclaims himself ready for the task. "It's something that all of us have been preparing our entire careers for," Hill told reporters. "Going out there in Game 6 and having the ability to be in that position, and go out there and leave everything on the field, is just an amazing thought." The pick: Roberts says that Hill will get a longer leash but Hill has not pitched more than five innings in any of his postseason starts in 2017. How will he fare past that point? We know that the LA bullpen is 'gassed.' so we may see Houston's bats continue the onslaught we saw in Game 5. As for Verlander, for all his accomplishments (and they are many), he's still looking for his first World Series win and note that he entered this year's Series 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA in three previous World Series starts. Clearly, with the state of Houston;'s bullpen, Hinch needs Verlander to go seven-plus innings. Each team pounded out 14 hits in Game 5 and I'm siding with the Over here in Game 6 and making it a 10* play. |
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10-29-17 | Dodgers v. Astros UNDER 7 | Top | 12-13 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: the two major storylines coming out of Game 4 of the 2017 World Series are the following. Dodgers first baseman Cody Bellinger had a record-breaking rookie season, (he's the likely NL rookie of the year), and finally came through with a pair of critical hits, after going hit-less with eight strikeouts in his first 13 World Series at-bats. He ended his skid with a seventh-inning double and scored the game-tying run on a single. He then drove home the go-ahead run in the ninth with another double sparking LA's five-run 9th innings en route to a 6-2 LA. Moving to the Houston side of this series, just how can A.J. Hinch trust closer Ken Giles the rest of the way? Giles entered to start the ninth last night with the scored tied at 1-1 and got into immediate trouble. He allowed a lead-off single to Corey Seager and a walk to Justin Turner. Bellinger then lined a fastball to left-center. Giles' line was three ERs allowed on two hits and a walk without recording an out. That follows him allowing two runs on two hits and a walk in 1 2/3 innings in Houston's Game 2 World Series win. Of course, all should remember his Game 4 'meltdown' against the Yankees, which almost cost the Astros in the ALCS. The pitching matchup: Clayton Kershaw (3-0 & 2.96 ERA) and Dallas Keuchel (2-2 & 3.00) return here in Game 5 for a rematch of Game 1. Kershaw's postseason woes have been well-documented and were very real. However, he began a turnaround in 2016 and has completed it here in 2017, at least so far. The Dodgers have won all four of his starts this postseason and going back to his last start of the 2015 postseason, Kershaw is 6-1 over nine starts, with the Dodgers winning eight of those nine games! Keuchel dropped his second straight postseason start on the road in his head-to-head matchup with Kershaw in Game 1, surrendering HRs to Chris Taylor and Justin Turner in the 3-1 setback. However, those HRs were the first two allowed in 24 postseason innings this season by Keuchel. The pick: Kershaw has finally brought his regular season brilliance to the postseason and note that Keuchel's back-to-back postseason losses have both come on the road. In two 2017 home postseason starts, he's allowed just one run and struck 17 over 12 2/3 innings, while going 2-0 (0.71 ERA). Expect a 'replay' of Game 1. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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10-28-17 | Dodgers +118 v. Astros | Top | 6-2 | Win | 118 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Astros came out for the 8th inning of Game 2 down 3-1 and on the verge of falling into an 0-2 'hole' in the 2017 World Series. However, the Houston bats finally 'came alive' and LA's un-hittable bullpen finally proved itself human. The Astros scored six runs over the final four innings of Game 2 to win 7-6 (11 innings) and last night back in Houston, KO'd Yu Darvish with a four-run the second inning (the shortest start of his career), leading to a 5-3 Game 3 victory. All of a sudden, the Astros are two wins away from winning the first World Series title in franchise history. Just as suddenly, the Dodgers' 104-win season is on the verge of becoming irrelevant. Houston's bats finally began hitting the late innings of Game 2 and followed with five runs on 12 hits in Game 3. LA's bullpen has suddenly become vulnerable and may more importantly, has been "stretched to its limits," with manager Dave Roberts using eight relievers over seven innings of Game 2 and five relievers in Game 3, for 6 1/3 innings. The pitching matchup: Alex Wood (0-1 & 5.79 ERA) is making just his second postseaon start of 2017 and will be opposed by Charlie Morton (1-1 & 6.23), who came up big for the Astros (5 IP / 0 Runs) in Houston's Game 7-clincher in the ALCS. Wood's only previous playoff start of 2017 was Game 4 in the NLCS against the Chicago Cubs. He allowed three runs (all on solo homers) and four hits while striking out seven over 4 2/3 innings of a game LA lost 3-2. Morton is in his 10th big-league season, but authored a "career year," going 14-7 with a 3.62 ERA, The Astros were 16-9 in all his starts (plus-$408). However, Morton hasn't pitched more than five innings in any of his three postseason starts and now gets to make his first World Series start. "It's an honor," Morton said at his Friday press conference. "Most people don't get a chance to play in the postseason, let alone in a Championship Series or the World Series. I'm going to try to enjoy it, but at the same time I've got a job to do." The pick: Is Morton ready for the challenge? I wouldn't bet on it plus manager A.J. Hinch can't possibly have much faith in his bullpen. He used Peacock (primarily a starter) for an eight-out save last night, which means 'the usual suspects" will be expected to come in when Morton is pulled by the fifth inning or so. Sure, Wood is making just his second starts in 31 days but he paced the majors in winning percentage (.842) after finishing 16-3 with a career-best 2.72 ERA in 27 appearances (25 starts). His 3.3 WAR represented the second-best mark of his career, trailing the 3.7 WAR he produced with the Atlanta Braves while finishing 11-11 with a 2.78 ERA in 2014. Houston struggled against LA's two-left-handed starters, as Kershaw and Hill (before he was lifted too soon), kept the Astros in check, allowing just two runs (both on solo HRs) over 11 innings. With another lefty starter here, make the Dodgers a 10* |
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