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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-27-17 | Dodgers v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: It seems impossible that the Dodgers and Astros will be able to top the drama of Game 2 in tonight's Game 3, as the 2017 World Series shifts venues to Houston's Minute Maid Park. The teams combined for a World Series-record eight HRs in Game 2 with George Springer's two-run shot in the 11th inning finally deciding the outcome, as the Astros' come-from-behind 7-6 victory evened the series at one-all. Along with the record number of home runs, the other story line coming out of Game 2 was that the LA bullpen finally showed some vulnerability. Eight LA relievers pitched seven innings and allowed 11 hits (including three of Houston's four HRs) and six runs, ending a 28-inning scoreless stretch in the 2017 postseason. The teams will now play three games in Houston and unless one team sweeps all three (seems very unlikely, right?), the series will return to LA for a Game 6 and a possible Game 7. The pitching matchup: Yu Darvish (2-0 & 1.59 ERA) starts for LA and Lance McCullers Jr. (0-0 & 2.08). Darvish was 4-3 with a 3.44 ERA in nine regular-season starts after the Dodgers acquired him from Texas, where he was only 6-9 with a 4.01 ERA. His moneyline mark this regular season (Texas and LA combined), was minus-$1302, the third-worst among all 2017 starters and he entered the postseason 0-2 with 5.40 ERA in two previous starts with Texas. However, Darvish has struck out 14 batters in 11 1/3 innings this postseason to improve to 2-2 with a 3.52 ERA in four career playoff starts. He also has a nice history at Minute Maid Park during his tenure with Texas, going 4-1 with a 2.16 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in six career outings. McCullers has posted a 2.33 ERA in four career playoff appearances (two starts) and is making his second start this postseason. He took a shutout into the seventh inning of Game 4 of the ALCS but allowed a lead-off HR to Aaron Judge and was removed with a 4-1 lead. A.J. Hinch's decision didn't work, as Houston's bullpen gave up five runs in a 6-4 New York win. However, Hinch handed the ball in Game 7 of that series to McCullers again and he delivered four shutout innings in Houston's 4-0 series-clinching Game 7 victory. The pick: Both teams have 'deadly' lineups but both Darvish and McCullers seem up to the challenge. Darvish's turnaround came with his strong finish to the regular season (one ER allowed over his final three starts for an 0.47 ERA in 19 1/3 innings with a 21-1 KW ratio). McCullers struggled down the stretch and was not given a start until Houston's eighth postseason contest (Game 4 of the ALCS) but as noted, he delivered a quality effort in that game (should never have been taken out after the Judge HR) and then closed the door on the Yanks in Game 7 of the ALCS, pitching four scoreless innings while allowing just one hit with six Ks. In his last 10 postseason innings, he''s allowed just one ER (0.90 ERA) on three hits with nine Ks. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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10-25-17 | Astros v. Dodgers -112 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas Keuchel matched Clayton Kershaw in Game 1 through five innings (it was 1-1 with both starters having allowed a solo HR). However, in the bottom of the sixth, Justin Turner's two-run blast was the difference in LA's Game 1 victory. Kershaw allowed just that solo HR, three overall hits and finished his seven innings with 11 Ks and zero walks (no postseason blues, this year!). The Dodgers are now a perfect 5-0 at Dodger Stadium in the postseason, while the Astros, MLB's best offensive team during the regular season, suddenly can't "get going" on the road. Houston scored just five runs in three consecutive losses to the Yankees in the Bronx during the ALCS and opened the 2017 World Series with three hits and one run! |
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10-24-17 | Astros v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 48 h 40 m | Show |
The setup: It's been well-documented that the Dodgers are back in the World Series for the first time since they upended the Oakland A's back in 1988. As for Houston, this marks the franchise's second-ever World Series appearance having lost the 2005 Fall Classic to the Chicago White Sox. The Dodgers won a MLB-best 104 regular-season games, then rolled over the Arizona Diamondbacks (3-0) and Chicago Cubs (4-1) to get here. Houston's 101-win squad knocked out the Boston Red Sox (3-1) but after a taking a 2-0 lead over the New York Yankees, lost all three games in the Bronx. However, a return to Houston sparked the Astro bats and backed by terrific pitching from Veralnder in Game 6 and the Morton/McCullers duo in Game 7, advanced to take on the Dodgers. The pitching matchup: Dallas Keuchel is 2-1 (2.60 ERA) vthis postseason and Clayton Kershaw is 2-0 (3.63 ERA) witth LA winning all three of his starts. Keuchel has struck out 25 in 17 1/3 innings over three starts this October and is 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA in six career postseason appearances (five starts). Keuchel was 14-5 in the regular season (2.90 ERA), with Houston going 16-7 in his starts. Kershaw has served up six HRs in three starts this postseason but his career ledger has improved to 6-7 with a 4.40 ERA in 21 appearances (17 starts). He is 3-2 with a 2.38 ERA in eight career starts against the Astros (Dodgers are 4-4). Kershaw went 18-4 (2.31 ERA) in the regular season, with LA going 23-4 in his starts. The pick: We all know about Houston's terrific lineup but we saw it silenced in three games against the Yankees in the Bronx. Houston will first have to reach Kershaw and then have to deal with an LA bullpen that didn't allow a hit in 29 at-bats in the NLCS against the Cubs plus owns an 0.94 ERA this postseason. Houston's bullpen is a concern but I see no reason to expect anything less than a stellar effort from Keuchel. Pitchers' duel predicted. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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10-21-17 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Astros took control of the AL West by mid-April, spending almost the entire regular season in first place. However, after a deflating 5-0 Game 5 loss to the Yankees in the ALCS, the Astros found themselves 'behind the eight-ball' for tehe first time in almost, forever. Fortunately, they had made a deal for Verlander "just for this situation!" The former AL Cy Young and MVP winner was 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA, 0.65 WHIP and a 43-5 KW ratio in five regular season starts for Houston and entered last night's game 3-0 with a 2.04 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and a 16-5 KW ratio in three playoff appearances (two starts). Verlander came through with seven scoreless innings last night and the 'silent' Houston bats provided seven runs on eight hits! It's now a Game 7 for the right to meet the Dodgers in the 2017 World Series. The pitching matchup: C.C. Sabathia (1-0 & 2.30 ERA) gets the ball for New York, while Houston has decided to give Charlie Morton (0-1 & 10.13 ERA) this Game 7 start. Sabathia was15-6 for the Yanks in 2012 but entered 2017 off a four-year run in which he had gone just 32-39. No one saw his 2017 season coming, as he finished the regular season 14-5 (3.69 ERA). The Yankees were 19-8 in his starts, giving him a plus-$1163 moneyline mark which ranked fourth-best among all starters. He's come up big this postseason as well and enters this game 10-0 with a 1.69 ERA in 13 turns following a New York loss in 2017 (regular and postseason!). Morton is in his 10th big-league season, but authored a "career year," going 14-7 with a 3.62 ERA, The Astros were 16-9 in all his starts (plus-$408). He started the clinching game of the ALDS at Boston but did not factor in the decision, leaving after 4 1/3 innings. He surrendered seven hits and walked a pair but limited the damage to two runs in a game Houston went on to win 5-4. However, in Game 3 of the ALCS against Sabathia,lasted only 3 2/3 innings while allowing seven runs on six hits, including a three-run HR by Todd Frazier. Morton is getting the nod over Lance McCullers Jr. and will be making only his fourth career postseason start. The pick: Which team holds the advantage? Houston has won 16 of its last 18 contests at Minute Maid Park dating back to the regular season but on the other hand, C.C over Morton gives New York the edge. I sure can't trust Morton but the Astros are the better team and their Game 6 performance offensively, was a welcome relief for all Houston fans. Lots of pressure here for all involved and it's my bet that the team's respective offenses will determine the winner here, not the starting pitchers. Make the Over a 10* play.
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10-20-17 | Yankees +132 v. Astros | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
I hope to get all three games completed but may have to leave SNF for Saturday morning. Be sure to post Sunday free play, so all I have to do is insert analysis. I'm busy Saturday with my friend's son's first soccer game (he's six). Something you will be dealing with soon. The set-up: The Houston Astros won Games 1 and 2 of the 2017 ALCS by identical 2-1 scores. They were hardly dominating wins but the Astros got excellent pitching performances from Keuchel and Verlander. They left for the Bronx feeling pretty good about their chances to win the American League pennant and advance to the second World Series in franchise history. However, the same team which led the majors in runs (896), batting average (.282), on-base percentage (.346) and slugging percentage (.478), while ranking second to the Yankees in HRs (238 to 241) during the regular season, returns to Progressive Field Friday night down 3-2 in the series, one win away from elimination. The Yankees won Games 3 through 5 by scores of 8-1, 6-4 and 5-0. That Houston offense I mentioned earlier, has mustered just nine runs with one HR this series and checks in batting .147 with an on-base percentage of .234 and a slugging percentage of .213! The Yankees, a team thought to be at least a year away from contending, is now one win away from returning to the World Series for the first time since it won its 27th title in 2009. The pitching matchup: Luis Severino (1-0 & 5.56 ERA in the 2017 postseason) goes for the Yankees and Justin Verlander (3-0 & 2.04 ERA) goes for the Astros, in a rematch of Game 2 of this series. Severino was lifted following the fourth inning of Game 2, when he struggled to get loose and was hit in the wrist by a comebacker. Meanwhile, Verlander pitched a gem, going nine innings and allowing just one run on five hits with 13 Ks. He got his third win of the postseason when the Astros scored in the bottom of the 9th. Severino was New York's best starter this year but that has not been the case in the 2017 postseason. He was able to get just one out in the wild card game vs the Twins (allowed three runs and two HRs), although he did have a solid effort in Game 4 of the ALDS, allowing three runs on four hits in seven innings in the Yankees' 7-3 win against Cleveland, before his four-inning stint in Game 2 against the Astros, opposite Verlander. Returning to Verlander, isn't he "the man" Houston wants on the mound tonight? After all, Verlander is 8-0 with a 1.39 ERA in eight appearances (seven starts) since arriving in a trade from the Detroit Tigers on Aug. 31. The pick: Verlander is surely a stud but Houston just "isn't hitting" Is a return home all the team need s to 'flip the switch?" That seems like a stretch to me and hasn't the Yankees' resilience been the story of this postseason? The New York lineup (especially the "big boys") have caught fire these last three games, scoring 19 runs on 25 hits. I doubt even Verlander can hold them back here. Make New York an 8* play. |
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10-18-17 | Dodgers v. Cubs UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Dodgers are one win away from both ending the Chicago Cubs’ reign (at one title in a row) and getting to the World Series for the first time since 1988. The Cubs have scored first in every game of the series, but they haven’t crossed the plate again in any of them. The Cubs have just 15 hits (four for extra-bases, including three HRs) with 32 strikeouts and only four walks. They've scored four runs in three games while batting .160. LA's bullpen has been "unreachable," as the Dodgers’ relievers have not allowed a run in their last 16 2/3 innings and have given up only two hits in this matchup. Chris Taylor and Andre Ethier homered in LA's 6-1 win on Tuesday, giving the club eight HRs in the series and 11 in going 6-0 this postseason. The pitching matchup: Alex Wood (16-3 & 2.72 ERA in the regular season) takes the mound for LA and the Cubs will send Jake Arrieta (0-1 & 0.00 ERA in the postseason). Wood had a "career year," as the Dodgers went 18-7 in all his starts, giving him a moneyline mark of plus-$505. However, this marks his first-ever postseason start and it comes after four less-than-stellar relief outings in past postseasons. He had allowed eight runs (four earned) over 5 1/3 innings over his first three postseason appearances before working two scoreless frames out of the bullpen against the Cubs in last year’s NLCS. Wood is 2-2 with a 2.93 ERA in eight career regular-season games (five starts) versus Chicago. Arrieta is 4-3 with a 3.33 ERA in eight postseason starts over these last three seasons, including losing his only start in this postseason in Game 4 of the NLDS 5-0 against Washington, despite allowing only one unearned run and two hits over four innings. Arrieta is 1-3 with a 3.77 ERA in five career regular-season starts against Los Angeles. The pick: History favors the Dodgers in this one, as of the 36 teams in postseason history that have led 3-0 in a best-of-seven series, 29 have completed a sweep. However, the Cubs erased a three-games-to-one deficit in the 2016 World Series against the Indians to capture their first championship since 1908. But this year, they are 0-for-11 with runners in scoring position in the series. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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10-17-17 | Dodgers v. Cubs -114 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Dodgers were MLB's best team during the regular season (104 wins) and they have been MLB's best postseason team so far, as they have yet to lose in the playoffs, going 5-0. They come to Wrigley Field to take on the defending champion Cubs with a 2-0 lead in the NLCS, meaning the Dodgers are two wins away form the team's first World Series appearance since 1988. The series so far has been a story of LA's pitching dominating Chicago's lineup. Los Angeles’ pitchers have dominated, allowing only three runs through two games, with the bullpen combining for eight scoreless innings, while allowing only a single baserunner but zero hits! “I think up to this point we've done everything we can to put ourselves in a good position, but there is a long way to go,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters. “It’s definitely noted how resilient that club is over there. They're going to do everything they can to win a game, and we're going to do the same.” To get back into the series, the Cubs will have to get the big bats in the middle of their lineup going as Chicago is hitting .117 in the series and stars Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo are a combined 1-for-14 with six strikeouts.
The pick: Darvish got the win in Game 3 vs. Arizona but let's be serious, he only pitched five innings and didn't remind anyone of Justin Verlander and his Game 2 effort vs. the Yankees in Game 2 of the ALCS. Just a reminder, Darvish's moneyline mark this regular season (Texas and LA combined), was minus-$1302, the third-worst among all 2017 starters. Getting back to Hendricks, prior to his less-than-stellar deciding Game 5 outing against Washington, he hadn't given up more than three ERs in 14 starts since the All Star break. In fact, in half of those starts (seven), he had allowed one or zero ERs. Expect the Cubs' bats to 'wake up' vs. Darvish. Make Chicago a 10* play. |
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10-16-17 | Astros +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -170 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The NY Yankees fell into an 0-2 hole against Cleveland but were able to win the final three games of that ALDS. The Yanks now find themselves in a second straight 0-2 hole here in the ALCS (a seven-game series), this time against the Astros. Houston owns MLB's best offense and the Yanks hit more HRs (241) than any team in MLB, yet each of the first two games resulted in 2-1 Houston wins. "Both sides are really, really emphasizing staying in the game and just continuing to fight because it can shift in a heartbeat," Houston manager A.J. Hinch told reporters. "Just when you feel good about where you're at, it can shift back to momentum the other way. So it's postseason baseball at its best." After rallying against the 102-win Cleveland Indians, the question is can New York do it again up against the 101-win Houston Astros? "I'm going to stick with the same lineup because things can turn really quickly," Yankees manager Joe Girardi told reporters. "There's a lot of guys that struggle in the postseason. That's just what it is. If you just start moving people around trying to play a hot hand, it doesn't necessarily work." The pitching matchup: Charlie Morton (14-7 & 3.62 ERA) gets the call for Houston and CC Sabathia (14-5 & 3.69 ERA) for the Yanks. Morton, in his 10th big-league season, authored a "career year" (see above), as the Astros were 16-9 in all his starts (plus-$408). He started the clinching game of the ALDS at Boston last Monday but did not factor in the decision, leaving after 4 1/3 innings. He surrendered seven hits and walked a pair but limited the damage to two runs in a game Houston went on to win 5-4 (0-0 & 4.15 ERA this postseason. CC Sabathia was15-6 for the Yanks in 2012 but entered 2017 off a four-year run in which he had gone just 32-39. No one saw his 2017 season coming, as he finished the regular season 14-5 (3.69 ERA). The Yankees were 19-8 in his starts, giving him a plus-$1163 moneyline mark which ranked fourth-best among all starters. This marks his third postseason start and he pitched well against the Indians. Although he went only 9 2/3 innings in his two starts, he struck out 14 batters and his Game 5 effort was a big reason the Yankees advanced (0-0 & 3.72 ERA this postseason). He now takes the mound in this "must-win" situation and he is 9-5 with a 4.46 ERA in 21 career postseason appearances (including 20 starts). The pick: After a pair on one-run games, should we expect anything different here in Game 3? The Astros are hitting .190 through two games, after batting .333 in the ALDS against Boston. As for New York, the Yankees enter Game 3 batting .159 with 27 strikeouts, four walks and just 16 total bases. Taking the 1 1/2 runs here could be a HUGE. Make the Astros an 8* play. |
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10-15-17 | Cubs v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: Jon Lester (13-8 & 4.33 ERA) takes the ball for Chicago and Rich Hill (12-8 & 3.32 ERA) gets the nod for Los Angeles. The Cubs beat the Dodgers in last yera's NLDS (4-2) and Lester was outstanding in one start and one relief appearance, allowing two runs on three hits over 9 2/3 innings (1.38 ERA). He is the active leader in postseason innings pitched with 143 1/3 and owns a 9-7 record and 2.57 ERA in 24 playoff appearances (20 starts). Lester is 3-3 with a 3.29 ERA in nine starts against the Dodgers (teams are 5-4). Hill was drafted by the Cubs and went 18-17 with a 4.37 ERA over his first four major-league seasons with the club from 2005-08. Hill started Game 2 of the NLDS against Arizona, allowing two runs on three hits over four innings of a no-decision. Hill limited the Cubs to two hits over six scoreless innings of a win in Game 3 of last year’s NLCS and was expected to start Game 7, if necessary, but the Cubs closed out the Dodgers in Game 6. The pick: Hill was ready and waiting to start a winner-take-all game in the NLCS against the Chicago Cubs last year, but Clayton Kershaw was upended in Game 6 and the Cubs advanced to the World Series. He gets a chance here to make up for that missed opportunity and help LA take a 2-0 lead in this year's NLDS. However, let's note that Hill owns a 4.50 ERA in five career postseason starts. After going all-in to close out the Nats in the NLDS and then having to face Clayton Kershaw in Game 1 of the NLCS just one day later, the Cubs can hardly be surprised that they are down 0-1. However, going down 0-2, will make a comeback pretty hard against the team which won a MLB-best 104 games in 2017. I expect Hill to pitch well again (like last year) against his original team and as for Lester, the Cubs should have confidence in a pitcher who owns a 2.57 ERA in 24 playoff appearances (20 starts) . Make the Under a 10* play |
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10-14-17 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas Keuchel had dominated the Yankees in the recent past and it was no different in Game 1 of the ALCS, as the lefty pitched seven scoreless innings, allowing three hits while striking out 10. However, New York's Masahiro Tanaka, who was just 4-7 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over 15 road starts in 2017 and 0-2 with a 10.38 ERA over four career regular season starts against Houston, didn't shy away from the big moment, either He gave the Yanks six innings, allowing just two runs on four hits. However, Houston was able to eke out a 2-1 win. Game 2 of the series is set for 4:05 ET, today. The pitching matchup: Game 1 was a pitchers' duel and here in Game 2, the Yankees send out their ace, Luis Severino to face Houston's "big-time trade deadline addition," Justin Verlander. Severino was 14-6 (2.98 ERA) for the Yankees in 2017, after he went 3-8 overall with a 5.83 ERA over 22 appearances in 2016, including 11 starts (Yanks were 2-9). Talk about a turnaround! He make the 2017 All Star game while recording career bests in wins (14), WHIP (1.04), and strikeouts, finishing fourth-best among AL pitchers with 230 (allowed only 51 walks). Severino could only get one out in the wild card game against Minnesota (allowed three runs on two HRs) but he allowed three runs on four hits (again, two HRs) but struck out nine Indians over seven innings in his 7-3 Game 4 victory, which sent the series back to Cleveland for a Game 5 (I think you know how that turned out). Verlander was 15-8 with a 3.36 ERA for Detroit and Houston in 2017 but his 15 wins don't tell the whole story. The former MVP and Cy Young winner was 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA in five starts with the Astros and in the postseason (one start and one relief stint, the ONLY one of his career), has picked up two wins (3.12 ERA). He has posted a 3.55 ERA in five career starts in the ALCS, including an eight-inning outing in which he allowed one run and struck out 10 in his last such outing against the Red Sox in 2013. Verlander has seen plenty of the Yankees in his career, going 8-7 with a 3.82 ERA over 22 career starts (team is 10-12). The pick: Yes, we have two top-of-the-rotation starters in this one but Severino is still a question mark. He was by most metrics the third-best pitcher in the AL this season but he's just 23 years old and comes with a bit of volatility. Severino struggled in both of his starts against the Astros this season, allowing three runs on six hits and three walks over 2 1/3 innings on May 14 at Yankee Stadium, before surrendering six runs on nine hits and one walk with seven strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings in Houston on July 2. That figures to a 10.59 ERA. Remember, he's facing a Houston team which led MLB in scoring at 5.53 RPG, in team BA at .282 and in OPS at .823 while ranking second in HRs with 238 (Severino has allowed four HRs in seven-plus postseason innings). As for the Yanks, they were only team to hit more HRs (241) than Houston, which could give Verlander pause. I still don't understand manager Hinch's decision to use Verlander in relief in a Game 4 situation, with his team leading two games to one. Again, Verlander had NEVER made a relief appearance in his career. Is that enough to :"throw him off?" I can't be sure (how could anyone be?) but the bet says this will not a replay of Game 1's pitchers' duel. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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10-13-17 | Yankees v. Astros -156 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Astros owned the AL's best record for most of the season but Cleveland's 33-4 finish allowed the Indians to edge out the Astros for the AL's No. 1 seed, 102 wins to 101. That meant the Astros expected to have to get past the Indians in the ALCS with Cleveland owning the home field edge. However, a funny thing happened on the way to that expected showdown, as Cleveland collapsed after taking a 2-0 lead over the Yankees. New York's pitching silenced Cleveland's lineup, allowing just six runs in winning Games 3, 4 and 5. So instead of a Houston/Cleveland showdown, it's Yankees/Astros, as MLB's best offense (Astros led MLB in scoring at 5.53 RPG, in team BA at .282 and in OPS at .823 while ranking second in HRs with 238), face the only team to hit more HRs in the regular season than the Astros (Yanks hit 241). The pitching matchup: Masahiro Tanaka(1-0 & 0.00 ERA) will start for the Yankees and Dallas Keuchel (1-0 & 1.59 ERA) for the Astros. Both were sharp in their lone ALDS outings but on the season, Tanaka was 13-12 with a 4.74 ERA and Keuchel,14-5 with a 2.90 ERA. Tanaka pitched the Yankees to a 1-0 win over the Indians in Game 3 by working seven shutout innings, allowing three hits and one walk with seven strikeouts. Tanaka also twirled seven shutout frames in his last start of the regular season, defeating the Toronto Blue Jays 4-0. However, those excellent two outings don't tell the whole story. While Tanaka was 9-5 with a 3.22 ERA over 15 regular-season home starts, he is 4-7 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over 15 road starts in 2017 (Yanks were 6-9). What's more, he is 0-2 with a 10.38 ERA over four career regular season starts against Houston (Yanks are 1-3). In contrast, the Astros were 16-7 in Keuchel's regular season starts and here in Houston, he owns a 2.21 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 12 home starts, including his Game 2 win in the ALDS. It sure doesn't hurt Keuchel's or Houston's confidence that he's also 4-2 with a 1.41 ERA over six career starts against the Yankees in the regular season plus owns a wild card win over them in 2015 (5-2 & 1.24 ERA, overall). The pick: Is it good news or bad new that the Yanks got past Cleveland while rookie sensation Aaron Judge went 1 of 20 in the ALDS, striking out an incredible 16 times? It's probably good news that of the nine Yankees to record double-digit at-bats in the ALDS, only four were in the lineup against Keuchel two postseasons ago, when he beat them 3-0 in a wild card game at Yankee Stadium (6 IP / 3 hits and a 7-0 KW ratio). The Yankees dropped to 41-43 on the road this season by losing two of three in Cleveland in the ALDS and with Tanaka's road woes this season (reminder, above), can hardly be trusted here against Keuchel (see above) and a Houston team which is now 50-33 at home on the season. Tanaka was out-dueled by Keuchel in that 2015 wild card game (Yanks are 1-4 in Tanaka's five all-time starts vs. the Astros) and don't expect a different result, here. Make the Astros a 10* play. |
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10-12-17 | Cubs v. Nationals OVER 7.5 | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nationals have yet to reach the NLCS, getting eliminated in the NLDS in each of their previous three postseason appearances (2012, 2014 and 2016) since moving to Washington, twice losing in a deciding Game 5 (2012 & 2016). Here again in 2017, with a little help from the weather, the Washington Nationals have forced a winner-take-all matchup Game 5 against the defending champion Chicago Cubs. Game 4 was scheduled for Tuesday with Chicago owning a 2-1 lead but rain forced the game to be rescheduled until Wednesday. That gave the Nats the option of replacing Game 4 starter Tanner Roark, with Stephen Strasburg. Starsburg initially said he was "under the weather," leaving the Nats to say Roark would go in the rescheduled game but Starsburg "got better" or ":had a change of heart," and took the mound. He was brilliant, allowing just three hits over seven scoreless innings to lead the Washington to a 5-0 win over the Cubs (Taylor's grand slam in the 8th, 'shut the door!'). Strasburg had 12 Ks and became just the third pitcher ever to register double-digit strikeouts twice is a single playoff series, joining Hall of Famers Bob Gibson and Sandy Koufax. Game 5 is now set for 8:05 ET tonight in Washington. The pitching matchup: Kyle Hendricks takes the mound for Chicago (was the Cubs' Game 1 starter) and Dusty Baker has decided to go with Gio Gonzalez, Washington's Game 2 starter (on full rest, after the rain out). Hendricks out-dueled Strasburg in Game 1, allowing two hits and three walks while registering six strikeouts over seven scoreless innings, as the Cubs won 3-0. This marks the third straight start in a series clincher for the 27-year-old Hendricks. He started Game 6 of last year’s NLCS against the Dodgers and Game 7 of the World Series versus Cleveland (Cubs won both times). He is 2-1 with a 1.98 ERA in eight postseason starts. Baker has passed on Roark in this Game 5, who has not started since Sep. 27 and gave up eight runs in 5 2/3 innings over his last two regular-season appearances (one start). Gonzalez allowed three runs on three hits over five innings in Game 2 (also six Ks and two walks), as the Nationals got him off the hook with a five-run 8th-inning rally. The pick: Gonzalez was a career-best 21-8 (2.89 ERA) for the Nats back in 2012 but over the next four seasons, would go just 43-37. His 4.57 ERA in 2016 was his highest since his first full season in the majors (2009 with the A's). However, he had an excellent bounce-back season in 2017, going 15-9 with a 2.96 ERA. Then again, he hasn't pitched more than five innings over his last five starts, including his Game 2 start in this series. In that span, he's allowed 19 ERs on 25 hits over 26 1/3 innings for a 6.49 ERA. It's hard to trust the Nats in any deciding game situation and Gonzalez doesn't exactly come in "on a roll." The feeling here is that these two very talented lineups have underachieved all series. In the case of the Nats, they'vs scored nine of their 12 runs in the series in the eighth inning, on a a two-run HR, a three-run HR and a grand slam. As for the Cubs, they've only scored eight runs in the series's four games, somehow managing to extend it to five games. The bet here says, both lineups 'catch fire' in Game 5. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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10-11-17 | Yankees v. Indians -178 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -178 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Indians had a 22-game winning streak while finishing the regular season with 33 wins in their last 37 games. They then took a two-games-to-none lead over the Yankees in their ALDS matchup. However, the Yankees returned to the Bronx and won 1-0 and 7-3 and now, all of a sudden, the Indians are in a "winner-take-all" Game 5 to advance to an ALCS matchup with the Houston Astros. The Cleveland Indians can't lose three in a row, roght? After all, they haven't lost three games in a row since July 30-Aug. 1 but then, it had been almost seven weeks between back-to-back setbacks before they dropped Games 3 and 4 of the ALDS to these pesky Yankees. The pitching matchup: Game 5 will be a "re-hook" of Game 5, as CC Sabathia squares off against Corey Kluber in a battle of former Cy Young Award winners. Sabathia began his career with the Indians (first 7 1/2 years) and many argued that he was pulled too early in Game 2. Girardi lifted Sabathia after 77 pitches and 5 1/3 innings,when he had retired 12 of the last 13 batters he faced. He left with a five-run lead before watching the bullpen let him down. Sabathia is 9-5 with a 4.47 ERA in 20 career postseason appearances and 4-3 with 3.63 ERA in 12 career appearances against the Indians (teams are 5-7). Most feel as if Kluber is the AL favorite to win another Cy Young in 2017 but he sure didn't "look the part" in Game 2. Kluber suffered through his worst start of the season in Game 2, serving up six runs on seven hits (including two HRs) in just 2 2/3 innings. However, he was let off the hook when Cleveland stormed back for a 9-8 win in 13 innings. Despite that horrific outing, Kluber is 5-1 with a 2.90 ERA in eight career starts vs. New York (team is 6-2). The pick: Both managers have faced criticism this series and the one who walks away with a loss in Game 5, will likely be 'roasted' (Girardi could lose his job0. Much was made of Fraancona using Bauer on three days' rest in Game 4 but Francona's plan all along was to have his ace, on normal rest, e avaailable bfor a possible Game 5 (the case here!). "It's hard to imagine giving it to somebody better," Francona told reporters of starting Kluber. "We tried to set up for a five-game series with plans, contingency plans, and pretty much everything is -- there's been a lot of things happen, and we go to Game 5, we're at home, and we have Kluber. It will be -- we're looking forward to it." The home team has won all four games so far and nothing changes here. Make the Indians an 8* play. |
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10-09-17 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -160 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The D'backs destroyed the Dodgers in six straight meetings near the end of the season, when LA was in a deep funk. However, LA's bats have toyed with Arizona's pitching in taking a commanding 2-0 lead in this NLDS. LA won Game 1, 9-5 and Game 2, 8-5. That's 17 runs scored on 24 hits. The Dodgers have looked every bit the part of the team that led the majors with 104 regular-season victories. The D'backs have 'limped' home but they can take heart in the fact that they are 53-29 at Chase Field in 2017 (including an 11-8 wild card win over Colorado), outscoring opponents 5.71-to-4.32 RPG. The pitching matchup: Yu Darvish (10-12 & 3.86 ERA) gets the ball for the Dodgers and will be opposed by Zack Greinke (17-7 & 2.89 ERA). Darvish did finish the season 2-0 in his last three outings, allowing just one earned run in 19 1/3 innings during the stretch (0.47 ERA). However, he's not had a good season and that's an understatement. Combine his starts with Texas and LA and his moneyline mark of minus-$1302 is the third-worst among all starters in 2017. Throw in the fact that he has a 5.40 ERA while losing both his career postseason starts and one wonders just why LA manager Dave Roberts said in a press conference, "To have that front-line guy to win a playoff game certainly that's why you acquire a guy like Yu." It's true that Greinke has been ineffective over his last three starts, giving up 14 runs in 11 2/3 innings (including lasting just 3 2/3 innings in the wild-card contest against the Colorado Rockies). That said, how does one ignore that the D'backs went 22-10 in all of Greinke's starts this regular season, giving him a moneyline mark of plus-$971 (8th-best among all starters). The pick: Greinke is 3-3 with a 3.92 ERA in 10 career postseason outings with two of the wins coming during his six postseason starts for the Dodgers. "We've built around him. He set the pace for the entire pitching staff all year long," Arizona manager Lovullo told reporters. "I know he loves challenges like this. Nobody prepares better. Nobody is going to work to make sure that on that day when he takes the mound that he's going to be comfortable, confident and ready." Sure, Greinke was terrible last Wednesday but he's on full rest and the D'backs are 16-3 in his Chase Field starts this season. Take the 1 1/2 runs and make Arizona an 10* play. |
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10-09-17 | Nationals v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nats have been playoff buts in recent years and were on the verge of falling into an 0-2 hole against the Cubs in Game 2 at Nationals Park. Chicago had a 3-1 lead into the bottom of the 8th, with Washington having score just one run on four hits through the first 16 innings of the series. However, Bryce Harper's two-run HR tied the game and Ryan Zimmerman's three-run blast powered a five-run explosion, as the Cubs won 6-3. The series now resumes late this afternoon at Wrigley Field tied at one apiece. "We've got to win two more games," Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo told reporters. "Doesn't matter how we do it. Doesn't matter the scenario. It starts Monday. With this group, with this experience, nothing's really going to faze us. We've given up way bigger home runs than that before." The pitching matchup: Max Scherzer (16-6 & 2.51 ERA) will get the ball for Washington and Jose Quintana (11-11 & 4.15 ERA) for Chicago. The Nationals are unsure just what to expect from reigning National League Cy Young Award winner. Scherzer hasn't pitched since Sep. 30 when he left his final regular-season start with what he referred to at the time as a "small tweak" in his right hamstring. He was scheduled to pitch Game 1 against the Cubs but was pushed back to Game 3 to provide him extra time to build more strength and endurance in his hamstring. He was pitching well before his injury, going 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA in his last three regular-season starts. Scherzer is 3-1 with a 2.92 ERA in six career starts against the Cubs, althoiugh his teams are only 3-3. Quintana has been an excellent pickup by the Cubs (traded away by the cross-town White Sox), going 7-3 with a 3.74 ERA in 14 starts for the Cubs. The Cubs have his last six starts with Quintana posting a 2.82 ERA over that span. Quintana has never faced the Nationals. The pick: With Scherzer's health a question mark, I'm not sure why the Nats should be favored at Wrigley over the defending champs. Especially when one considers that the Cubs have gone 10-4 in Quintana's 14 starts , including 7-1 here at Wrigley. What's more, Scherzer is win-less in his last five postseason starts. The Cubs’ pitching staff has completely dominated the Nats' lineup, except for that one inning. Take the 1 1/2 runs and make Chicago a 8* play. |
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10-09-17 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 10.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
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10-08-17 | Astros v. Red Sox +127 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 127 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Twins lost the AL wild card game last Tuesday to the Yankees, losing a 13th straight postseason game. That ties the MLB record held by the Boston Red Sox (from 1986 through 1995). Yes, the Red Sox have won three World Series titles since then but Boston has not won a postseason contest since the clinching game of the 2013 World Series and are now in danger of being swept out of the ALDS for the second straight October (Terry Francona's Indians did the 'honors' in 2016!). The Red Sox attempt to climb out of a 2-0 hole against the Astros but Houston is playing with the utmost confidence at the moment. The Astros got solid starting efforts from Verlander and Keuchel plus the offense has scored eight run sin each of the first two games, banging out 12 hits in each contest, as well. The pitching matchup: Brad Peacock (13-2 & 3.00 ERA) gets the Game 3 start for Houston and will be opposed by Doug Fister (5-9 & 4.88 ERA). Peacock began the season in the bullpen and on the season, Houston was not quite as impressive as his personal won-loss record in all his starts (15-6, plus-$424). However, he earned this start by holding his last seven opponents to two or fewer ERs (he was 3-1 but the team just 4-3). He did not allow more than five hits in any of his five September starts, winning his last three. Fister is an interesting choice as the Game 3 starter, with Boston facing elimination. He was chosen over Eduardo Rodriguez and reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello despite going 0-2 with a 9.18 ERA over his last four starts. He was signed by the Red Sox as a free agent in June and has hardly impressed in his 18 appearances, including 15 starts. He's had limited action against Houston, going 1-1 with a 3.44 ERA in three career starts (teams are 2-1). The pick: It was just 10 days ago that Houston Astros pitcher Brad Peacock went to the Fenway Park mound and defeated Boston 12-2 in the opening game of the regular season-ending four-game series against the Red Sox. However, be advised that in earning that win by allowing two runs in five innings, it 'improved' Peacock's career mark vs. Boston to 1-2 in four starts (team is 1-3) and his ERA to 9.01 (you read that right!). Maybe the reason Fister is getting the ball in this elimination game is due to him owning a 2.60 ERA in nine career postseason games (eight starts)? No sweep here. Make Boston a 10* play. |
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10-07-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Clayton Kershaw allowed four HRs (fortunately, they were all solo shots) but led by Justin Turner's five RBI, the Dodgers won Game 1 of their NLDS matchup with the D'backs, 9-5. It marked Kershaw's first-ever home playoff win (isn't that something?) and while it was hardly a gem, LA will take it. Turner's three-run, first-inning HR led to a 4-0 first-inning lead, one which LA extended to 7-1. Turner went 3-for-4 to raise his career postseason average to .383 in 60 at-bats.The Diamondbacks belted four solo HRs but they had just two at-bats with runners in scoring position.
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10-06-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The LA Dodgers owned MLB's best record (104-58) and won the NL West by 11 games over the Arizona D'backs. However, the D'backs beat the Dodgers in the two teams' final six meetings, winning the regular-season series 11-8. The Dodgers have been off since Sunday, while the D'backs had to get past the Rockies in an NL wild card game Wednesday, which they did by winning 11-8. Despite taking a 6-0 lead over the Rockies, Arizona manager Torey Lovullo not only had to pull starter Zach Greinke, who lasted just 3 2/3 innings while giving up four runs, he was forced to use Robbie Ray in Wednesday's game as well. That means Ray, who was 15-5 (2.89 ERA) on the season, is not able to start Game 1 of the NLDS. The pitching: Instead, Taijuan Walker (9-9 & 3.49 ERA) will take the mound for the D'backs in Game 1, opposite the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw (18-4 & 2.31 ERA). The D'backs went 14-14 (minus-$47) in Walker's 2017 starts but the good news is, his ERA was 2.92 on the road, compared to 4.18 at home. More good news comes in the form of him having gone 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA in three starts against the Dodgers (D'backs were 3-0). "I think the biggest thing is controlling your emotions and taking it one pitch at a time," Walker said at a press conference. "I think you can't go out there and let the adrenaline really get to you. You have to take a deep breath every pitch and really focus on each pitch." Kershaw missed time with a bad back but again was wonderful when on the mound. LA was 23-4 in his starts, giving him MLB's second-best moneyline mark (plus-$1235), despite being stuck with enormous prices in almost every outing. Kershaw dominated the Diamondbacks in two starts this season by going 2-0 with a 0.59 ERA and holding batters to a .118 average. He's seen planet of the D'backs in his career (26 starts), going 14-8 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.12 WHIP (LA is ). The pick: Kershaw is arguably the greatest pitcher of his era but postseason success has eluded him. He enters the 2017 postseason just 4-7 with a 4.55 ERA in 18 career appearances (14 starts) in the postseason. Will it be different here in 2017? Are the Dodgers ready to win a World Series for the first time since 1988? The journey begins tonight and I'll play Under, as I think Walker will surprise plus nothing seems to come easy for Kershaw in the postseason. I expect him to bring his "A game" but can one really lay this kind of a price? Make the Under a 10*. |
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10-06-17 | Cubs v. Nationals -161 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -161 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cubs ended a 108-year drought with last year's World Series win and 2017's regular season was no "walk in the park." However, in the end, the 92-70 Cubs won the NL Central by six games and are right where they want to be, back in the postseason and playing for a second straight title. Chicago will be trying to become the first team to win back-to-back titles since the New York Yankees won three straight from 1998-2000. The Cubs' NLDS opponent will be the 97-65 Washington Nationals, who won the NL East by a whopping 20 games (largest margin of any division-winner). Now no franchise compares to Chicago's 108-year drought but the Nats are trying to get over the hump after being knocked out in the NLDS three times in the past five seasons. Adding insult to injury, the franchise has not won a postseason series since 1981, when it played in Montreal. The pitching matchup: Kyle Hendricks (7-5 & 3.03 ERA) was the Cubs' Game 7 starter for the 2016 World Series and he now gets the Game 1 start here, as the Cubs begin their quest to repeat in 2017. He'll be opposed by Washington's Stephen Strasburg (15-4 & 2.52 ERA), who has been a 'beast' in his 10 starts after the All-Star break, going 6-1 with a 0.86 ERA and 76 strikeouts over 62 2/3 innings (Nats were 9-1). Hendricks struggled early in the season, but similarly to Strasburg, he's been excellent since the All Star break. He has allowed two or fewer runs in 10 of his 13 starts over that stretch. However, despite a 2.19 ERA, the Cubs are 6-7 in his starts during that span. Hendricks gave up three runs over seven innings in a loss to Washington on Aug. 4, leaving him 2-2 witha 2.67 ERA over five career starts against the Nats (Cubs are 3-2). Strasburg's post-break run has been remarkable, as he's allowed more than one run only twice over the 10 starts in that span. He hasn’t lost since August 19. However, Strasburg has made only one postseason start, in the 2014 NLDS against San Francisco, allowing two runs (one earned) over five innings in a tough-luck loss. The pick: Strasburg may only be 1-1 in five career starts vs. the Cubs but he owns a 2.08 ERA, allowing the Nats to win four of those five starts. The Nationals have won the National East four times -- in 2012, 2015, 2016 and this year -- but they have never advanced past the first round of the playoffs. Washington was beat by the St. Louis Cardinals at home in Game 5 in 2012, on the road by the San Francisco Giants in 2014 in a four-game series, and at home in Game 5 last year by the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Nationals took four of the seven meetings with the Cubs this season and really need a confidence-building Game 1 win, here! My bet says they get it. Make Washington an 8* play. |
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10-05-17 | Yankees v. Indians -130 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: Cleveland's strong finish (highlighted by the team's 22-game winning streak) was enough to allow the Indians to edge past the Houston Astros (102-to-101 wins) for the American League's best overall record. That means Cleveland opens its quest to return to the World Series with a five-game ALDS matchup with the wild card-winning NY Yankees. The first two games will be in Cleveland, beginning with tonight's contest at 7:05 ET.Terry Francona made liberal use of his bullpen weapons while guiding the Cleveland Indians to the World Series last season (especially Andrew Miller) and Joe Girardi took a page out of Francona's playbook in Tuesday's wild card win over the Twins. Starter Luis Severino was replaced with one out and three runs in in the first inning but Girardi got 26 outs (13 Ks!) from his bullpen, as Chad Green, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle and Aroldis Chapman proved to be up to the task as the Yankees pulled out an 8-4 victory. Francona rode Andrew Miller hard in the 2016 postseason and won't be afraid to do so again, though the Indians might have an even better team in 2017 after finishing the regular season with 33 wins in their last 37 games! The pitching matchup: Sonny Gray (10-12 & 3.55 ERA) gets the nod in Game 1 for New York, opposed by Cleveland's Trevor Bauer (17-9 & 4.19 ERA). Big things were expected of Gray when the Yankees acquired him in a trade deadline deal with Oakland but he went a modest 4-7 with a 3.72 ERA in 11 starts. He struggled with the 'long ball' in September, surrendering nine HRs in 35 1/3 innings. He lost 5-1 at Cleveland in his New York debut on Aug. 3 (allowed four runs but just two were earned) plus was ripped for six runs on six hits over 4 2/3 innings in his final regular-season outing on Saturday. Gray is 0-1 in two career postseason starts despite a 2.08 ERA. Bauer more than did his part during the Indians' sprint to the finish. He was 10-1 with a 2.42 ERA over his last 14 games (13 starts / Indians were 10-3) and allowed two runs in 13 innings over his final two starts. Two of those outings came against New York on Aug. 4 and Aug. 30, and he breezed to wins in both by scattering two runs over 13 innings while striking out 11. Still, that only brings his LT mark against the Yankees to 3-4 with 4.60 ERA in eight starts (Indians are 4-4). The pick: Bauer gets the start over Cy Young candidate Corey Kluber, so that Kluber can come back on regular rest in a potential Game 5 or Game 1 of the ALCS. Yes. Bauer went 0-2 with a 5.27 ERA in five games (four starts) during the 2016 postseason but he had a damaged pitching hand. It's been a breakout season for him here in 2017 and he was 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA. Sonny Gray has not lived up to expectations for the Yanks since the trade and in three starts vs. the Indians in 2017, went 1-2 with a 4.86 ERA. I sure don't want to step in front of the Cleveland 'express' here in Game 1. Make the Indians an 8*! |
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10-05-17 | Red Sox v. Astros UNDER 7 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: It's a "big-time" showdown in Game 1, as Chris Sale (17-8 & 2.90 ERA) squares off against Justin Verlander (15-8 & 3.36 ERA). Sale was one of MLB's best pitchers for most of the season but struggled over his final eight starts, going 3-4 with a 4.30 ERA (team was 4-4). This marks Sale's first career postseason start, after 260 regular-season games. However, it comes vs. a team he's had great success against, going 5-1 with a 1.31 ERA in six career starts against Houston with 65 strikeouts against only five walks over 48 innings. "I'm 28 years old, so I've been waiting for this about 23 years," Sale told reporters. "This has been a long time coming. A lot of hard work went into this. It's a long season. We had a lot of guys put everything they had on the field the entire season. To have this opportunity right here, it's the best." Verlander's 15 wins don't tell the whole story, as the former MVP and Cy Young winner has gone 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA in five starts since joining the Astros. He allowed four runs (three earned) in 12 innings over two starts against Boston earlier this season, though he did not factor in either decision (Tigers were 1-1). Verlander owns a solid 2.77 ERA vs. Boston over 18 career starts (just 5-6), while the Tigers were only 8-10 in all starts. The pick: "You can't get prepared for it," Verlander told reporters of starting in the postseason. "You have to experience it by being out there and feeling the adrenaline, and experiencing it for yourself." Verlander has had good success in the postseason, save his 0-3 record (7.20 ERA) in three World Series starts. However, he and Houston are two series wins away from a World Series appearance. Have to like Verlander's excellent performance since coming to Houston and his 2.77 ERA in 18 career starts vs. the Red Sox. As for Sale, he's dominated Houston teams in the past and while he struggled down the stretch in 2017, his 2.90 ERA was the second-best among all AL qualifiers plus he owned an 0.97 WHIP, had 308 Ks and opponents batted just .208 against him on the season. Make the Under a 10* |
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10-04-17 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -165 | Top | 8-11 | Win | 100 | 67 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: Much has been made (as it should) about the Twins going from a MLB-high 103 losses in 2016, to a wild card meeting with the Yankees on Tuesday (result unknown at this writing). However, the National League's wild card game features two teams playing postseason baseball coming off fairly big losing seaosn, themselves. In fact, both Arizona and Colorado, 'flipped the script' from their respective 2016 seasons. The Arizona Diamondbacks were 69-93 in 2016 but earned the NL's s No. 1 wild card spot by going 93-69 in 2017. They will host NL West rival the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday, after Colorado went from 75-87 to 87-75 MLB, to earn the No. 2 spot. One couldn't make that up! The pitching matchip: John Gray will take the ball in the biggest start of his career for Colorado. He was limited to 20 starts this season due to some injury issues early in the year but turned in a solid effort, going 10-4 with a 3.67 ERA (team was 13-7 in his starts). He actually fared better at hitter-friendly Coors Field, where he owned a 3.17 ERA, compared to 4.06 on the road. He's 2-2 with a 4.75 ERA in five career starts vs. Arizona (team is 3-2). Zach Greinke is the ace of Arizona's rotation, entering with a 17-7 record in 32 starts with a 3.20 ERA. The D'backs were 22-10 with him on the mound, going plus-$971 vs. the moneyline (8th-best). He's 9-5 (3.97 ERA) lifetime against Colorado in 24 starts (teams are 14-10). The pick: The Rockies struggled at times over the second half of 2017 and were challenged by the Milwaukee Brewers up to the final week of the regular season. Colorado's .273 team BA ranked second in MLB, its 5.09 RPG ranked third an the team's .781 OPS ranked 5th. However, after opening 27-11 on the road, Colorado 'limped' home 14-29 in its final 43 road games. That hardly bodes well against an Arizona team which was 52-29 at Chase Field, outscoring opponents 5.64-to-4.27. Then there is Greinke's home mark. He was 13-1 at home in 18 starts (team was 15-3!), posting a 2.87 ERA, and 0.96 WHIP. Sure's it's a "one-game,winner-take-all" situation but how does one go against Greinke? Make the D'backs a 10* play. |
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10-03-17 | Twins v. Yankees UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -105 | 43 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The NY Yankees were 84-78 last season but did not make the postseason. As for Minnesota, it's been well-documented that the Twins lost a MLB-high 103 games in 2016, only to become in 2017, the first team to ever make the playoffs coming off a 100-loss season. The Yankees weren't even sure that Aaron Judge was ready to play every day in the big leagues this spring but he went on to hit 52 HRs, knock in 114 runs, bat .284, slug .627 and post a 1.049 OPS (should I leave out the 208 Ks?). The Twins were 52-56 on the morning of Aug. 5 and owned a negative run differential. However, Minnesota started hitting HRs. The Twins were 19th in the major leagues in runs scored at that pouint but they are since first in the major leagues in 'dingers' (87), while going 33-21. As for the Yanks, they led all of MLB with 241 HRs, ranked second in scoring (5.30 RPG) and sit third in OPS (.785). The Twins have lost 12 straight playoff games, the second-longest streak in postseason history, and ine of those losses have come against the Yankees (note: teams haven't met in the postseason since 2010). The pitching matchup: Ervin Santana (16-8 & 3.28 ERA) will start for Minnesota and Luis Severino (14-6 2.98 ERA) for the Yankees. Santana's in his 13th MLB season and he won 16 games for the third time (career-best was 17 wins in 2010). He entered this season just 57-61 over the previous six years (since that 17-win season) and saw the Twins go 8-22 in his 2016 starts, minus-$1450 vs the moneyline (2nd-worst in MLB). However, he opened 5-0 with an 0.66 ERA through six starts in 2017. By the end of May he was 7-2 with 1.75 ERA. However, he's gone 9-6 since and his ERA has risen 1 1/2 runs, finishing at 3.28. His career numbers are not good against the Yanks, as he's 6-10 with a 5.66 ERA over 20 starts (teams are 7-13). Talk about a bounce back season? Let me introduce you to Luis Severino. He made 22 appearances in 2016, including 11 starts. He was 3-8 overall, with a 5.83 ERA. The Yanks were 2-9 in his starts, going minus-$714 vs. the moneyline. So all he's done in 2017 was make the All Star game while recording career bests in wins (14), WHIP (1.04), and strikeouts, finishing fourth-best among AL pitchers with 230 (allowed only 51 walks). Severino has made just one career start against the Twins (just recently, on Sep. 20), pitching only three innings, giving up three ERs on five hits but the Yanks won 11-3 The pick: This will be Santana’s ninth career postseason appearance and his third start in the AL Wild Card Game. He's clearly cooled off since a hot start but over his six September starts, he's posted a 3.31 ERA (1.90 ERA over his last four!). The Yanks have won 13 of the last 15 times that Severino has taken the mound but note, this is the 23-year-old's first postseason start. However, he's backed by a New York bullpen that's held opposing batters to a .205 BA, by far the lowest opponents' BA in the league. NYY relievers have 653 strikeouts in only 538 1/3 innings! Remember that the Twins have lost 12 consecutive postseason games, while the Yankees come into this game having lost five straight playoff contests. These team will be tight in this winner-take-all contest, making the Under a 10* play. |
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10-01-17 | Mets +1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 0-11 | Loss | -190 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
\ The set-up. The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies will square off in the rubber match of this three-game series Sunday, although there is clearly nothing much at stake. In fact, both teams are facing off-seasons which will be likely to be filled with change, including hiring new managers. Collins (69) is the oldest manager in baseball and has steered the Mets for seven seasons, longer than anyone else in team history but a tough 2017 has taken its toll. Is it just a matter of when he is fired? As for the Phillies, Pete Mackanin is already out as Phillies manager, although he's been allowed to manage this final weekend series.The Phillies won Saturday but the Mets won 7-4 in 11 innings on Saturday, when Asdrubal Cabrera hit a three-run HR in the 11th inning. For Phildelphia, the Phillies played well enough down the stretch (have gone 22-17 at home since the All Star break) to avoid a 100-loss season and at 65-96, cannot finish with MLB's worst record (Giants are 63-98). The pitching matchup: Noah Syndergaard (1-2 & 3.18 ERA) will take the mound for the Mets and Nick Pivetta (7-10 & 6.26 ERA) for the Phillies. Syndergaard was rocked for five runs in 1 1/3 innings of a 23-5 loss at Washington on April 30 and was then shelved with a tear in his lat muscle. His 'story' was emblematic of the Mets' season. He made a one-inning start Sep. 23 (also against the Nationals), allowing just one single in a scoreless inning that required only five pitches. Syndergaard's last full start was against Philadelphia on April 20, when he struck out 10 and allowed three ERs in seven innings, which left him 4-1 with a 1.89 ERA in his five career starts versus the Phillies. Pivetta has won two straight starts, allowing two ERs on nine hits over 12 innings (1.50 ERA) with 12 strikeouts. However, the rookie owns a 1.52 WHIP and .287 BAA to go along with his ugly 6.26 ERA. He had perhaps his best start of the year at New York on July 2, allowing a run and one hit over seven innings to get the win, but was reached for 12 runs in 9 2/3 innings over the next two meetings with the Mets! The Phillies are 10-15 in all of his starts in this, his rookie season. The pick:Syndergaard won't stay around long (he's expected to be limited to around 25 pitches) but I'll still back the Mets here, as Pivetta has been rocked in his last two outings by the Mets (12 ERs over 9 2/3 innings for 11.17 ERA). In what is likely Terry Collins' last game, I'll take the 1 1/2 runs and make the Mets a 6* play. |
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09-30-17 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The Philadelphia Phillies are hosting the New York Mets this weekend, as both teams are glad to see the 2017 season come to an end, as both can then look forward to the hope of better things to come in 2018. The visiting Mets lost 6-2 on Friday, snapping a modest three-game winning streak. At 69- 91, the Mets will now need to win one of their final two games to avoid falling shy of 70 victories for the first time since 2003. The Philly win puts them in a position to win four straight games for the first time in two months. Philadelphia is now 22-16 at Citizens Bank Park since the All-Star break, which has helped the 69-95 Phillies climb over the Tigers and Giants (both 63-97) and out of the MLB 'basement!' The pitching matchup: Seth Lugo (7-5 & 4.72 ERA) will take the mound for the Mets, up against Henderson Alvarez (0-1 & 3.60 ERA) of the Phillies. Jacob deGrom was scheduled to make Saturday's start for New York but a case of gastroenteritis has ended his season. Instead, Seth Lugo moves up a day to get the ball. Lugo is coming off his best start of an otherwise difficult season, posting six scoreless innings and striking out seven to defeat Atlanta 3-2 this past Monday. It was the third time in his last four starts that he has allowed one or zero runs. Lugo gave up five runs in 5 1/3 innings at Philadelphia on Aug. 11 in a no-decision while striking out a career-high eight. He's made just two career starts vs. Philly with a 6.97 ERA but the team is 2-0. Alvarez has been plagued by injuries since leaving the Marlins after the 2015 season (note: he threw a no-hitter as a Marlin in 20013 and was an All Star in 2014). He did little with Oakland (mostly sidelined with injury issues) and signed a minor league deal with the Phiilies in August of 2017. He allowed four runs in five innings in his first start with the Phillies on Sep. 17 but was much better last Saturday, pitching five scoreless inning against Atlanta, finishing with two strikeouts and three walks. Alvarez is 5-2 with a 3.50 ERA in nine career starts against the Mets (teams are 6-3). The pick: Lugo's shown his best over his last four, with one poor start but just a single ER allowed over 17 innings in the other three (0.53 ERA) plus Alvarez is a former All Star pitching with no pressure. What's more, Philadelphia's bullpen boasts a 2.45 ERA over the last 31 games. make the Under a 10* play. |
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09-29-17 | Mariners v. Angels -158 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Angels were eliminated from playoff consideration earlier this week and the team has continued to spiral downward. LA will wrap-up the 2017 season with a three-game home series with Seattle, having lost nine of its last 11 games. Seattle also had its hopes of ending a 15-season playoff drought before it fell out of the wild-card derby because of its own swoon. The Mariners lost eight of nine games in a pivotal stretch before recovering to take two of three from the Oakland A's to open the final week of the season Monday through Wednesday. The pitching matchup: Marco Gonzales (1-1 & 6.25 ERA) takes the mound for Seattle and Tyler Skaggs (2-6 & 4.48 ERA) for Los Angeles. Gonzales is making his seventh start for the Mariners but his first since beating Texas back on Sep 12. Gonzales has made two relief appearances since his last start (three scoreless innings) but he's been very ineffective over his 10 appearances in 2017, as he owns a 1.78 WHIP and .360 BAA to go along with his 6.25 ERA. Gonzales started against the Angels on Aug. 11 and gave up one run (on a homer) and four hits in 4 1/3 innings while drawing a no-decision (lone appearance against LA in his brief career). Skaggs received a no-decision in his last start when he allowed four runs on six hits in five innings against the Houston Astros. He's made 15 starts in 2017 with LA going 7-8. He did turn in a strong outing against Seattle on Aug. 10, giving up five hits in 6 1/3 scoreless innings of a no-decision. Skaggs is 1-2 with a 4.67 ERA in six career starts against the Mariners (teams are 3-3).
The pick: The 78-81 Angels need a sweep of the Mariners to avoid their third losing campaign in five seasons. Let's not get ahead of ourselves but the Mariners may not put up much of a fight this weekend. Surely, Gonzales should be no trouble of the LA bats. Make the Angels an 8* play. |
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09-29-17 | Pirates v. Nationals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 105 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Nationals manager Dusty Baker is liberally resting his stars in a bid to keep his team as healthy as possible as it awaits postseason play. That includes the recently returned Bryce Harper and naturally, people are interested."Nothing. Don't be alarmed. Nothing. Again ... nothing," Baker said in response to reporters asking if something was wrong with Harper, who missed 1 1/2 months with a knee injury before returning to action on Tuesday. The Nats have a huge series looming as they will face the defending champion Cubs in the NLDS. Washington won 5-4 last night in the first of this four-game series with Pittsburgh, a team which will miss its second straight postseason (currently 73-86), after three consecutive wild card appearances (all losses though!) from 2013-2015. The pitching matchup: Gerrit Cole (12-11 & 4.23 ERA) starts for Pittsburgh and Stephen Strasburg (14-4 & 2.63 ERA) for Washington. Cole picked up his first win since August 26 last Saturday, although he allowed five runs on seven hits in the Pirates' 11-6 win over the Cards. Cole has allowed 14 runs in last three starts (16 2/3 innings for a 7.56 ERA) and looks to regain the form that saw him allow one run on three hits in a 6-1 rout of Washington on May 17. He's done well vs. the Nats in his short career, going 3-1 with a 2.56 ERA in five starts (Pirates are 4-1). Strasburg saw his four-start winning streak stalled as he settled for a no-decision in Saturday's game against the New York Mets. He allowed three runs in that contest after tossing five straight outings (35 innings) in which he did not surrender an earned run. The Nats did win Saturday's game 4-3 and Washington has now won Strasburg's last six starts, making them 21-6 (plus-$1050) in all of his 2017 starts, the seventh-best moneyline mark among starters. Strasburg picked up the win versus Pittsburgh on May 16 after permitting three runs in six innings. He's 4-2 with a 2.76 ERA over seven career starts vs. Pittsburgh (Nats are 5-2). The pick:Who knows which players Baker may rest and as noted, Cole's had solid success against the Nats. Strasburg's been "lights out" recently and this marks his final 'tune-up' before the playoffs. Excellent spot to make the Under a 10* play. |
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09-28-17 | Rays v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-6 | Win | 105 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The Yankees beat the Rays 6-1 last night (have won 12 of 18 meetings this year) and remained three games back of Boston in the AL East. With just four games remaining in the regular season, winning the American League East is unlikely but the 89-69 Yanks have clinched the No. 1 wild card spot and at 89-69 on the season, will (surely should) reach 90 wins for the first time since 2012. The Rays were eliminated from playoff contention on Tuesday and have dropped three in a row to assure they will finish under .500 for the fourth consecutive season (are currently 76-82). The pitching matchup: Jacob Faria (5-4 & 3.33 ERA) will get the nod for Tampa Bay and Sonny Gray (10-11 & 3.31 ERA) for New York. Faria returns to make his first start since August 16, after missing a month with an abdominal strain (Alex Cobb was scratched due to workload issues). Faria is a rookie who made 13 starts before his injury and allowed two runs over five innings in two relief appearances since being activated. However, Faria comes in win-less in his last four starts, going 0-3 (team was 1-4) with a 5.06 ERA. Faria had a no-decision in his lone appearance against the Yankees, allowing three runs on three hits over four innings back on July 30 (Rays won 5-3). Gray has pitched far better than his 4-6 record indicates since being acquired by the Yankees. His Sep. 12 outing against Tampa Bay is a good example, as he gave up two runs over eight innings in a 2-1 loss. Gray is 3-3 with a 3.71 ERA in 10 career starts against Tampa Bay (teams are 4-6). The pick; Gray owns a 3.12 ERA with the Yanks but recently, he's had some issues with "the long ball," allowing eight HRs in his last six starts. He'll take the mound on Thursday behind a team which has 11 wins in its last 12 home games and 19 wins in its past 26 overall since Aug. 16. The hot streak has assured them of being, at worst, the home team in next Tuesday's wild-card game against the Minnesota Twins. Meanwhile, the Rays are 1-8 at New York this season and clinched their 10th straight series loss at Yankee Stadium with Wednesday's loss. Faria hasn't seen much action since Aug. 30 and was struggling as a starter prior to going on the DL (see above). The play here is on the Over (10*s). |
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09-27-17 | Reds v. Brewers -160 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -160 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: Milwaukee's four-run first inning was good enough for them to hold off the Reds 7-6 on Tuesday. The win left the Brewers 1 1/2 games behind the Rockies (with five to play) for the second NL wild card spot. Milwaukee is only one game ahead of St. Louis and plays its final three on the road against the Cardinals, so it cannot afford a misstep versus Cincinnati, in this, the team's final home series of the 2017 season. The 66-91 Reds will just be content with the fact that they will be able to stay out of the NL 'basement' (Phillies are 63-95 and Giants are 62-96). The pitching matchup: Homer Bailey (5-9 & 6.96 ERA) goes for the Reds and Brandon Woodruff (2-2 & 3.76 ERA) for the Brewers. Bailey is coming off another shaky outing on Thursday, lasting only four innings while giving up four runs on seven hits in a loss to St. Louis. Injuries have limited Bailey to 17 starts in 2017 and he owns a 1.75 WHIP and .318 BAA to go along with his bloated 6.96 ERA. He has faced the Brewers twice within the past seven weeks, winning at Milwaukee with five innings of two-run ball on Aug. 11 and settling for a no-decision on Sept. 4 after allowing three runs in six innings. He is 6-9 with a 4.87 ERA in 25 career starts vs. Milwaukee (Reds are 12-13). Woodruff allowed just four ERs in his first four major-league starts but has had some shaky moments over his last three, surrendering 13 ERs and 20 hits over 17 innings (6.88 ERA). Woodruff has never faced the Reds (just seven ML starts) and it's a concern that the Brewers are 3-0 in his road starts (2.00 ERA) but 0-4 in his home starts (5.16 ERA). The pick: Sure, Woodruff's home struggles are a concern but Bailey is a highly-beatable pitching foe. Milwaukee has virtually no margin of error and beating the Reds, who have dropped seven consecutive contests and are only 27-49 on the road in 2017, is a MUST. Make Milwaukee a 10* play. |
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09-27-17 | Nationals v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Bryce Harper finally made his return last night, after missing six weeks due to a knee injury. He played five innings in his first contest since Aug. 12, as the Nats lost 4-1 to the Phillies. According to manager Dusty Baker, Harper was "like a little kid on opening Little League day." Baker plans to incorporate Harper into game action as if it were spring training in hopes he's ready to go full throttle for the NLDS. BTW, Washington is locked into the second seed in the playoffs and will host the NL Central champion, either the Chicago Cubs or the Milwaukee Brewers, in the division series. The Nats and Phillies play the rubber match of this three-game series tonight, as the 63-95 Philadelphia, with just four games left in its season, has now guaranteed that it will avoid becoming the franchise's first 100-loss club since 1961. "First of all, when I said that 98, 99 or 100 losses didn't matter, I lied," Phillies manager Pete Mackanin said after his team's win Tuesday.We gain feel his pain. The pitching matchup: Tanner Roark (13-10 & 4.41 ERA) goes for Washington and Mark Leiter Jr. (3-6 & 4.69 ERA) for Philly. Roark went 16-10 with a 2.83 ERA in 2016 but here in 2017, has seen his ERA rise more than 1 1/2 runs. However, he's still 13-10 (team is 16-13 in his 29 starts) and comes in having allowed three ERs or less in his last nine starts (team is 6-3). There is also the fact that he has dominated the Phillies since the start of the 2016 season, posting a 4-0 mark with a 1.87 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Leiter allowed one earned run in six innings versus the Los Angeles Dodgers last Thursday, in getting a no-decision in LA's 5-4 win. However, that effort still leaves him with a 7.17 ERA in four Sep. starts (he's 1-2 and the team 1-3). Leiter's lone win this month came at the expense of Washington, as he overcame a pair of HRs and four runs total in a 5-4 victory on Sep. 9, the rookie's lone start vs. the Nats. The pick: Roark's recent domination of the Phillies (see above for a reminder) plus the fact that Leiter has had confidence-boosting outings in his last two appearances (12 Ks and just two walks in 12 innings) gives me an 8* play on the Under. |
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09-26-17 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
The Dodgers beat the Padres 9-3 last night, giving them their 100th win of the season. There was a time when there was talk that LA had a chance at 116 wins in 2017 but that all ended when the team lost 16 of 17 games. However, the Dodgers have reached the 100-win mark for the first time in 43 years! Two more wins and they will match the Los Angeles-era record set in 1962 and matched in 1974 of 102 wins. Los Angeles also now holds a 4 1/2-game lead over Washington for the best record in the National League and with just five games remaining, the team's magic number is down to two. The San Diego Padres have allowed 17 runs in back-to-back losses and have lost four of their last six contests. The pitching matchup: Dinelson Lamet (7-7 & 4.45 ERA) will be on the mound for San Diego and Alex Wood (15-3 & 2.71 ERA) for LA. Lamet has pitched reasonably well lately, allowing less than two runs in four of his last six outings but finds himself 0-3 and the team 0-6, in that span. Lamet struck out 10 and allowed one run on six hits in a loss on Sep. 1 in his lone career outing against the Dodgers (0-1 & 1.50 ERA). Wood was 10-0 with a 1.67 ERA prior to the All Star game but his performance has dropped since the break, going 5-3 with a 3.97 ERA. He is 1-1 with a 3.21 ERA in three appearances (two starts / LA is 1-1) against the Padres this season and 3-2 with a 2.57 ERA in 11 career games (seven starts / teams are 3-4). The pick: The SD pitching staff has been battered for 17 runs on 22 hits the last two games and no reason to expect Lamet to 'stop the bleeding' (he allowed six hits, including three HRs, and six runs in 5 1/3 innings in his last start). Wood's been pretty 'mortal' since the break and the Over is a 10* play. |
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09-26-17 | Tigers v. Royals -167 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Kansas City had its elimination number reduced to one with an 11-3 loss at the New York Yankees on Monday afternoon. The Royals are approaching the end of an era with franchise cornerstones Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar all set to reach free agency at the end of the season. "You're definitely aware of the possibility that could happen," Royals manager Ned Yost told reporters of all four players leaving after the season. "These guys have been going so hard this year and they're all beat down. You would really like to just give them a couple days off, but it's hard to do because our fans are going to want to see them." KC will finish the season with a six-game homestand, beginning tonight with the opener of a three-game series with the Detroit Tigers. Detroit enters on a seven-game losing streak (longest current one in MLB) and with an overall record of 62-94, a half-game better than the Phillies and Giants, as those three are in a race to the bottom for MLB's worst record in 2017. The Tigers are headed toward their worst record since the 2003 squad lost 119 games and Monday it was revealed that Miguel Cabrera is dealing with two herniated discs in his back and could miss the rest of the season. |
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09-26-17 | Nationals -145 v. Phillies | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: Bryce Harper was expected to return last night from his knee injury (last played on Aug. 12) but flu-like symptoms kept the 2015 National League MVP out of the opener of the Nationals' three-game series in Philadelphia against the Phillies. The Nationals made it three straight wins last night with a 3-1 victory, as well as six wins in their last eight. However, the Dodgers won last night too (1st 100-win season since 1974) and LA's magic number to clinch the NL's best record is down to two. Washington is pretty much resigned to not having home field advantage if it meets LA in the NLCS. As for the Phillies, they've followed a 7-2 stretch by losing four of five and once again find themselves with MLB's worst record. Actually, they are tied with the Giants at 62-95! The pitching matchup: Gio Gonzalez (15-7 & 2.68 ERA) gets the nod for the Nats and Jake Thompson (2-2 & 4.14 ERA) for the Phils. Gonzalez improved to 7-2 in his last nine starts on Wednesday, allowing two runs on three hits in seven innings of a 7-3 victory at Atlanta. He's the "forgotten man" in a rotation featuring Scherzer and Starsburg but with one more win, he'll match the second-highest win total of his career, topped only by his 21-8 season back in 2012. He's seen plenty of the Phillies in his career (22 starts) and has posted an excellent 2.60 ERA. However, he's 10-6 and his teams are just 12-10 in all starts. Thompson made 10 starts last year for Philly and this marks his 11th appearance (eighth start) of 2017. However, he did turn in his second straight strong outing this past Wednesday, allowing one run on three hits in five innings of a no-decision versus the Los Angeles Dodgers. In his previous start, he had pitched 5 1/3 scoreless innings vs. Miami. The 23-year-old was shelled in his last encounter versus Washington, allowing seven runs on seven hits in five innings of an 11-10 loss on Sept. 8. Thompson is 0-2 with a 4.67 ERA in three career starts vs. the Nats (team is 0-3). The pick: As noted already, Gonzalez has compiled a 2.60 ERA over 22 starts (138 2/3 innings) against the Phillies but his record should be better. Case in point is two no-decisions in 2017, despite allowing a combined three ERs in 14 innings (1.93 ERA). This could be Gonzalez' last start of the regular season and I expect him to go out with a 'bang,' as the Nationals look for their 24th win in their last 31 games versus the Phillies. Make Washington an 8* |
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09-25-17 | Mariners v. A's UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: Break up the A's! Oakland completed its second straight three-game sweep with Sunday's 8-1 home victory over the Texas, all but ending Rangers' wild-card hopes over the weekend. Oakland's three-game sweep pushed the Rangers 5 1/2 games behind Minnesota for the second American League wild card with seven contests remaining and now the A's will look to extend their winning streak to eight when they host the Seattle Mariners on Monday. The 72-83 A's will not be able to 'hurt' the Mariners in this three-game series, as 75-81 Seattle was eliminated from playoff contention with Sunday's 4-2 loss against Cleveland, the Mariners' their eighth loss in their last nine games. The pitching matchup: Felix Hernandez (5-5 & 4.57 ERA) will start for Seattle and Daniel Gossett (4-9 & 5.38 ERA) for Oakland. Hernandez makes just his third start since coming off another stint on the DL in mid-September and for the first time since late July, will face a team other than the Rangers. He started against Texas back on July 31, then spent about six weeks on the DL and has made his last two starts against the Rangers, as well. Hernandez is 24-9 with a 2.62 ERA over 45 careers starts against the A's (team is 31-14). Gossett, a 24-year-old rookie, is coming off a no-decision at Detroit on Tuesday, despite allowing six runs on nine hits and three walks over just 4 2/3 innings. However, let's note that he had allowed three runs or less in each of his previous four starts, yet went only 1-3 in that span. The pick: The A's are on a roll and playing without any pressure but the Mariners are also in that same position now (no pressure), after getting eliminated from the postseason. "King Felix's" 24 wins against the A's are his most victories versus any team. No reason to expect him not to be sharp here and this sets up as an Under (10* play). |
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09-25-17 | Angels -145 v. White Sox | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -145 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: The LA Angels have not been eliminated from wild card consideration just yet but the Angels are "on the brink." They open MLB's final week of the regular season clinging to the hope of reaching the postseason but they have their work cut out for them. LA snapped a six-game slide with Sunday's 7-5 win over Houston but a 5-11 stretch leaves them 4 1/2 games behind Minnesota for the second and final wild-card spot in the American League. The good news is that the Angels are in Chicago tonight for the opener of a four-game series and the White Sox are in "rebuilding mode" plus are just playing out the string at 63-92 (only the Tigers are worse in the AL at 62-94). |
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09-24-17 | Twins -162 v. Tigers | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
\The set-up: The Minnesota Twins came to Detroit Thursday for a four-game weekend series on a three-game slide and losses in five of their previous six games. However, the sad-sack Tigers were "just what the doctor ordered" as the Twins have won the first three games and early Sunday afternoon, go for a series sweep. After totaling just six runs while dropping three straight at the New York Yankees to begin the week (Mon-Wed.), Minnesota's bats have 'woken up' in Detroit, scoring 29 runs in taking the first three from the Tigers. In the process, the Twins have cut their magic number to five, for clinching the AL's second wild card spot. As for the 62-93 Tigers, they've lost six straight to drop into last place in the AL Central behind the 62-92 Chicago White Sox (62-92). The Tigers announced on Friday that manager Brad Ausmus would not be back next season as the rebuilding project continues (target date, 2025?). |
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09-23-17 | Angels v. Astros -157 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: The Astros won 3-0 last night, handing the Angels their fifth straight loss, as well as the team's 10th in its last 14 games. Time is running out on LA, as the Angels have fallen 3 1/2 games back of the Twins for the AL's final wild card spot (tied with the Rangers) and have just nine games remaining (Twins have only eight). Houston has won seven of its last eight contests and is six victories shy of the second 100-win campaign in franchise history. More importantly, with Cleveland's loss at Seattle on Friday, the Astros inched within 1 1/2 games of the Indians for the AL's best record (top record would have home field edge in possible ALCS showdown). |
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09-22-17 | Rockies -160 v. Padres | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: The Colorado Rockies' chances of catching the Arizona Diamondbacks are becoming slimmer and slimmer (D'backs' magic number to clinch the No. 1 wild card spot is down to three!) and the much bigger concern for the Rockies now is, holding onto the No. 2 wild card spot. Colorado's bats have gone silent and the team's hold on the second National League wild-card spot is clearly in jeopardy. The Rockies have been blanked in back-to-back games and have dropped four in a row as both Milwaukee and St. Louis threaten to overtake them. Colorado's 3-0 loss last night in San Diego leaves it one game ahead of the Brewers and 1 1/2 in front of the Cardinals with nine remaining. This four-game series continues tonight at Petco Park. About the only thing San Diego has to celebrate these days is that the team has won four of its last five games and surpassed last year's victory total (68) with Thursday's win. The Padres were 68-94 in 2016 (23 games back of the division-winning Dodgers) but with nine games left in tehe 2017 season, sit at 69-94, although they are 28 games back of the Dodgers. The pitching matchup: Jon Gray (8-4 & 3.75 ERA) takes the mound for Colorado and Jordan Lyles (1-3 & 7.35 ERA) for San Diego. Gray struck out seven and gave up two hits in five scoreless innings against San Diego in his last start before a 90-minute rain delay knocked him out of the contest. The effort continued his pattern of success against the Padres, as he owns a 2.50 in nine career starts against them, including a franchise-record 16-strikeout performance in a four-hit shutout back on Sept. 17, 2016. Gray made three early April appearances but then went on the DL and didn't return until June 30. He's been a solid starter since and heads into this game having allowed three ERs or less in 11 straight starts. Lyles began the year with the Rockies, making 33 relief appearances (0-2 with a 6.94 ERA), before being released. He's made three starts for the Padres, going 1-1 with an 8.78 ERA (SD is 2-1). That includes an outing in which his former teammates torched him for seven runs and eight hits over four innings this past Saturday in Colorado's 16-0 win over San Diego. Lyles is 0-2 with a 7.27 ERA in five career appearances (three starts / teams are 0-3) against Colorado. The pick. If Lyles being on the mound can't 'wake up' the Colorado bats, then the Rockies are in deep S*#&T! As for Gray, while he's a modest 3-2 in his career vs. San Diego in nine starts (team is only 3-6), he does own a very solid 2.50 ERA in those starts. Make Colorado an 8* play. |
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09-22-17 | Angels v. Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 105 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
The setup: The Astros lost at home to the sad-sack White Sox last night and it's looking more and more as if Cleveland will wind up with the AL's best overall record (Indians lead the Astros by 2 1/2 games). Houston begins a three-game home series with the LA Angels tonight, a team looking to snap a four-game losing streak. The Angels find themselves in a funk, having lost nine of their last 13, putting them 2 1/2 games behind Minnesota for the American League's second wild-card spot (along with the Texas Rangers). The pitching matchup: Garrett Richards (0-2 & 2.00 ERA) will take the mound for LA in an effort to stop the bleeding but his opponent will be the red-hot Justin Verlander (13-8 & 3.50 ERA). The injury-plagued Richards has made just four starts in 2017 (he's 2-0 and the team 2-2) and 10 total over the past two seasons. He's currently attempting to regain his form after a biceps injury. Richards has lost back-to-back starts, pitching five innings in each outing. He is 5-4 with a 3.58 ERA in 13 career appearances (10 starts / team is 6-4) against the Astros, including a 1-0 loss opposite Verlander in which he gave up one run and four hits over five innings on Sep. 12. Verlander has been everything (and more) for Houston. He has struck out 26 and walked just three in 21 innings since joining Houston's rotation, going 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA in three outings since being acquired from Detroit. "I think my mechanics and everything have been pretty good," the 34-year-old Verlander told reporters. "My last few starts are really to try to go out there and maintain that feel and just attack and help get us a win." Verlander is a modest 7-8 with a 3.55 ERA in 18 career starts (teams are 8-10) vs the Angels, which includes 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA in two starts versus the Angels this year. The pick: Houston's starting rotation has allowed just nine ERs on 26 hits and 13 walks with 42 strikeouts over the past 42 innings, good for a 1.93 ERA during that stretch. Clearly, Houston's starters are trending in the right direction at the most opportune time with the postseason upcoming and Verlander is leading the way. However, note that Richards has been quite effective in his four 2017 starts. Yes, he hasn't gone longer than five innings in any one of them but he's allowed just 13 hits in 18 innings with an 18-4 KW ratio, 0.89 WHIP and a .194 BAA. Like when these two pitchers met back on Sep 12 (a 1-0 final), the Under is a 10* play. |
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09-21-17 | Rangers v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mariners won the final three games of a four-game set in Texas against the Rangers from Sep. 12-14. However, Seattle has lost all five games since then, while Texas has followed a five-game skid, which began with those three straight home setbacks to Seattle, with three consecutive wins. While the Mariners now sit four games behind the Twins with 10 to play for the AL's final wild card spot, the Rangers have climbed to within 2 1/2 games of Minnesota with 11 contests remaining in their season. The pitching matchup: Cole Hamels (10-4 & 3.96 ERA) starts for Texas and James Paxton (12-4 & 2.98 ERA) for Seattle. Hamels has posted only one victory over his last five starts (team is 2-3) but did pitch well enough to win this past Saturday, when he allowed two runs on four hits over 7 1/3 innings of a 2-0 road loss to the LA Angels. Hamels improved to 6-3 lifetime against Seattle on Sep, 11, when he gave up three runs and tied a season high with seven strikeouts in six innings (teams are 8-5 in his 13 career starts against the Mariners but he owns a 5.02 ERA!). Paxton returned from a pectoral strain this past Friday but worked only 1 1/3 innings in a 5-2 loss at Houston. He gave up three runs on four hits and two walks as he reached his limit of 50 pitches. It was his first defeat since June 27 against Philadelphia. He hasn't surrendered more than three ERs since June 16 at Texas, a span of 11 starts (Mariners are 8-3). However, Paxton lost that June 16 outing vs. the Rangers, falling to 2-3 with a 4.60 ERA in nine career starts against the Rangers (teams are 4-5) with that setback, although he allowed two hits over eight scoreless innings in a win versus the club back on April 15. The pick: It's likely neither team will make the postseason but in this one, but Paxton has allowed no more than three ERs in 11 straight starts) and Hamels is Hamels. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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09-21-17 | Royals v. Blue Jays -157 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -157 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Kansas City used an eight-run second inning on its way to a 15-5 win at Toronto. The Royals had failed to score more than four runs in eight straight games and entered last night's game on a three-game slide, before busting loose against the Blue Jays. The victory allowed them to close within 3 1/2 games of the American League's second wild card with 11 games left to play The 71-81 Blue Jays (71-81) would need to win their final 10 games to avoid the team's first losing record since 2013, as the two teams meet in the rubber match of this three-game series tonight at Rogers Centre. The pitching matchup: Jason Vargas (16-10 & 4.19 ERA) takes the mound for KC and J.A. Happ (9-10 & 3.76 ERA) for Toronto. Vargas has won his last two starts but he went just five innings in each and hasn't come close to resembling the pitcher who was 12-3 on June 30. Vargas is 4-7 since the beginning of July (team is 6-7) and his ERA has almost doubled, from 2.22 on June 30 to 4.19 heading into tonight's contest. Vargas is 3-3 with a 4.96 ERA against the Blue Jays after beating them with seven innings of two-run ball on June 24 over nine career starts (teams are 5-4). Happ began the season by losing his first four decisions and also spent time on the DL. His 20-4 season of 2016 seems 'miles' away but he's won each of his last three starts to move closer to a sixth season with double-digit victories. In one start this season against the Royals (June 23), he allowed four hits, no walks and one run in 6 2/3 innings and did not factor in the decision as Kansas City won 5-4. In five career starts against the Royals, he is 2-2 with a 4.91 ERA (teams are 2-3). The pick: KC is fighting for a playoff spot while the Blue Jays, after back-to-back ALCS appearances, will be sitting home this October. However, Vargas has struggled for most of the last three months, while Happ, who struggled early in the season with elbow inflammation, has a 2.25 ERA over his last four starts and has won three in a row. Make Toronto a 10* play. |
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09-21-17 | Indians -141 v. Angels | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: The Twins have lost three straight games but the Angels have failed to take advantage of Minnesota's struggles by losing three in a row, themselves. LA, which has lost eight of 12, has seen its American League wild-card hopes grow dimmer, as the Angels get set to host the the Cleveland Indians on Thursday for the finale of this three-game series. The Angels still trail the Twins for the second wild-card spot by 1 1/2 games and now they have just 11 games remaining. As for the Indians, they have now won four in a row and 26 of their last 27. Cleveland goes for the three-game road sweep having last lost a road game back on August 20 (that's 13 straight road wins!). The pitching matchup: Danny Salazar (5-6, 4.52 ERA) recently returned from an elbow injury and is starting for Cleveland for the first time since Sep. 5, after two relief outings. Taking the mound for LA is rookie Parker Bridwell (8-2 & 3.71 ERA), who is MLB's biggest moneymaker among starters (Angels are 15-2, plus-$1644 in his 17 starts!). Salazar retired only two batters in his last start against the Chicago White Sox (9/5), giving up four runs. Cleveland wants to extend his pitch count to see if he is a possible postseason starter. Salazar is 1-1 with a 3.74 ERA in four career starts against the Angels (Indians are 2-2). Bridwell scattered three hits over six scoreless innings to defeat Texas 2-0 in his last outing, ending a stretch of five straight win-less outings (note: Angels went 4-1 in that stretch). The rookie had allowed 15 runs on 20 hits in 12 innings (11.25 ERA) over a three-start span before his turnaround against effort against Rangers. Bridwell will be facing the Indians for the first time. The pick: No doubt that Bridwell has had a remarkable rookie season but in all honesty, he's also been fortunate, with the Angels' run production bailing him out of more than just a few, "less-than-stellar" outings. In going 4-8 over their last 12 games, the Angels have averaged just 3.3 RPG. That won't cut it against the Indians. Make Cleveland an 8* play. |
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09-20-17 | Rangers v. Mariners -148 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -148 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The Texas Rangers passed the Seattle Mariners in the American League wild-card standings on Tuesday, posting a 3-1 victory in the series opener to move one-half game ahead of the Mariners and climb within 3 1/2 of Minnesota for the second spot with 12 left on its schedule. As for Seattle, since capturing the final three contests of a four-game set at Texas from Sep. 11-14 the Mariners are win-less. Seattle trails Minnesota by four games with 11 remaining, as its losing streak reached four in row. The pitching matchup: Andrew Cashner (9-10 & 3.40 ERA) starts for Texas and Felix Hernandez (5-4 & 4.19 ERA) for Seattle. Cashner looks to avenge a horrific outing against Seattle last Thursday, when he had his five-start unbeaten stretch halted after being battered for five runs on six hits and five walks over just 4 1/3 innings. Cashner was able to earn just two wins during his unbeaten streak (Rangers were 3-2), which has been the problem for him in 2017. He had allowed fewer than three ERs in seven of his previous eight starts prior to the loss to the Mariners, yet was only 4-3 (team was 5-3). Cashner is 1-4 with a 3.98 ERA in eight career appearances (seven starts / teams are 2-5) versus Seattle, including a 1-2 record and 4.16 ERA in four starts this season (Texas is 1-3). Hernandez will be making his second start since his latest stint on the disabled list and third in a row against the Rangers. Both of those outings took place in Texas, including him allowing one run on three hits in only 3 2/3 innings on Thursday while throwing only 54 pitches. Hernandez is 1-0 with a 3.31 ERA in three starts versus the Rangers this year (Seattle is 3-0!) but owns a 19-23 record and 3.92 ERA in 53 career starts (Mariners are 24-29). The pick: Cashner iis having the best season of his career but remains just 9-10 with the Rangers going 12-13 in all of his starts (plus-$101). Seattle needs Hernandez to pitch like a 'King" and that's my bet (Mariners are 3-0 in his starts vs. the Rangers this year). Make Seattle a 10* play. |
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09-20-17 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 13-7 | Win | 105 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The Arizona Diamondbacks are attempting to nail down the NL's No. 1 wild card but so far, it's been a "lost series" in San Diego with the D'backs losing the first two of this three-game series against the Padres. Arizona owns 4 1/2-game lead over Colorado for the first wild-card spot in the National League but tonight, looks to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Padres, who own a three-game winning streak but just a 68-83 record. |
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09-20-17 | Nationals -147 v. Braves | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nats won the opener of this three-game series 4-2 in Atlanta last night. The victory gives the Nats a 91-59 record and with the Dodgers losing 6-2 at Philly, Washington climbed to within 4 1/2 games of LA for the National League's best overall record. The loss guaranteed Atlanta (67-82) would have a losing record for the fourth consecutive season, as the Braves opened a stretch of 14 games in 13 days to close the 2017 season by losing for the fourth time in their last five games (note: Atlanta is 22-37 since sitting at .500 back on July 16 with a 45-45 record!).
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09-19-17 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Colorado Rockies are trying to hold off the Milwaukee Brewers, who are two games behind, and St. Louis Cardinals (4 1/2 back) for the NL's second wild card. The Rockies will begin their final road trip of the campaign with a visit to the MLB-worst San Francisco Giants on Tuesday to start a two-game series, then head to San Diego for four games. Colorado finishes at home against first the Marlins and then the Dodgers. For Colorado, that wild card spot is there for the taking, as the Giants, Padres and Marlins all own losing records! As for the 58-93 Giants, they are staring down their first 100-loss season since 1985 and only the second in franchise history, with their next eight games against postseason hopeful Colorado (owns the 3rd-best moneyline in MLB), before taking on the Dodgers (owners of MLB's best record) and then the Diamondbacks (own the 2nd-best moneyline mark in MLB). |
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09-19-17 | Dodgers -157 v. Phillies | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -157 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dodgers hit three solo HRs at Philly last night and had Clayton Kershaw on the mound, a sure recipe for a win. However, Kershaw gave up the first grand slam of his career to Aaron Altherr and the Phillies eked out a 4-3 victory. Los Angeles fell for the second straight time following a four-game winning streak (which had been preceded by the team losing 16 of 17), as its magic number clinch to win the NL West remained at four, while LA's lead over idle Washington for the best record in the National League dropped to 5 1/2 games. Philadelphia won for the fifth time in seven contests and by going 15-14 its last 29, the 59-91 Phillies have climbed over the 58-93 Giants, leaving San Francisco with MLB's worst record. The pitching matchup: Yu Darvish (9-12 & 4.08 ERA overall in 2016) takes the mound for LA and Aaron Nola (11-10 & 3.60 ERA). Darvish opened 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA in his first three starts with LA (Dodgers were 3-0) but then lost three in a row, allowing 13 ERs on 19 hits over 12 1/3 innings for a 9.49 ERA. However, he regained the form he had upon his arrival to the Dodgers at the trade deadline, yielding only three singles and striking out five across seven scoreless innings in a 4-1 win at San Francisco on Wednesday. Darvish will try to improve on his 6-4 record and 2.59 ERA on the road this season as he faces Philadelphia for the first time in his career. Nola turned in one of the most dominant performances of his career in a win Wednesday against Miami, permitting only one run on a solo HR among the four hits he gave up in seven innings while striking out a career-high 11. Pitching for a team with a win percentage of. 393 is no easy task but Nola is 11-10 on the season and the Phillies are 12-13 in his 25 starts, giving him a win percentage of .480 (team is 47-78, .376 when someone else starts!). Like Darvish, Nola is facing tonight's opponent for the first time in his career, as well. The pick: Monday's 4-3 win marked the first time this season that the Pjhillies have beaten the Dodgers (were swept in Los Angeles back in late April) and Philadelphia has only won three of its last 12 meetings with LA. The Dodgers have not lost a series in Philadelphia since 2011, which was the last season in which the Phillies made the playoffs. Make LA an 8* play. |
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09-18-17 | Twins v. Yankees -149 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Twins will open an 11-game road trip with a three-game visit to Yankee Stadium when the take on the NY Yankees on Monday night. This could be a preview of the American League's wild card matchup. The Yankees currently own the No. 1 wild card spot with a four-game lead over the Twins. Minnesota has a two-game lead over the Angels for that No. 2 spot plus five other teams lurk withing 5 1/2 games of the Twins. The pitching matchup: Minnesota ace Ervin Santana (15-7 & 3.35 ERA) takes the mound for the Twins, opposed by Jaime Garcia (5-9 & 4.35 ERA) of the Yankees. Santana got off to a blazing start in 2017, going 7-2 with a 1.80 ERA through his first 10 outings (Twins were 7-3) but then cooled off. However, he's back pitching well again and enters unbeaten in his last 10 starts, recording four victories in that span with the Twins going 7-3. Santana has not pitched well in his career vs. New York, going 6-9 against the Yankees with a poor 5.78 ERA in 19 career starts (teams are 7-12).. Garcia opened the season with Atlanta but notched the victory in his lone start with Minnesota before being shipped to New York, where he has gone 0-2 with a 4.60 ERA in six outings (NYY are 3-3). However, he's given up just one earned run in each of his last two outings, although to fair, he's only been able to work a total of 9 2/3 innings due to pitch counts. He pitched six scoreless innings in his only career start versus the Twins, settling for a no-decision (his team lost the game). The pick: The Twins are 7-4 in their last 11 games and will play 10 of their final 13 games on the road, where they are 39-32. The Yankees, who are 12-5 in their last 17 games, will play 10 of their remaining 13 games at home, where they are 43-28. Santana may be the better pitcher here in 2017 but the Bronx has not been good to the veteran in his career. He is 2-1 with a 5.19 ERA in three starts at the current Yankee Stadium plus in the old Yankee Stadium, he was 0-4 with a 7.06 ERA in five starts. Make the Yankees a 10* play. |
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09-17-17 | Dodgers v. Nationals -150 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Is LA's awful stretch of 16 losses in 17 games finally behind them? It sure looked that way Saturday afternoon, as the Dodgers beat the Nats for the second straight tome at Nationals Park, 3-2. It was LA's fourth straight win and Cody Bellinger homered in the triumph to lift his season total to 38, moving him into a tie with Wally Berger (1930) and Frank Robinson (1956) for the most HRs by a NL rookie. The victory makes Los Angeles 96-52, as it lowering its magic number to clinch the NL West to five while increasing its lead over 89-59 Washington (89-59) to seven games for the best record in the National League. The pitching matchup: Hyun-Jin Ryu (5-7 & 3.59 ERA) gets the nod for LA and Stephen Strasburg (13-4 & 2.64 ERA) for Washington. Ryu will take the mound after 10 full days of rest following a no-decision Sep. 5 against Arizona in which he allowed one run on three hits but walked five and struck out seven across six innings. Ryu missed all of 2015 and made just one appearance in 2016. However, he's returned in 2017 to make 22 appearances, including 21 starts. Four of his last six outings have come on the road, where he is 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA since the All-Star break. Ryu was charged with the loss versus the Nationals on June 5 after surrendering four runs in seven innings of his first career start against Washington. Strasburg continued his run of recent dominance en route to his third win in as many starts Sunday against Philadelphia, yielding only two singles and one walk while striking 10 over eight innings. He has not been scored upon in a franchise-record 34 consecutive innings. Strasburg took the loss versus the Dodgers on June 7 despite permitting only two runs (one earned) in six frames, falling to 1-2 with a 2.82 ERA in six starts (Nats are 1-5) against them all-time. The pick: Strasburg is 3-1 with a 0.51 ERA with a 41-4 KW ratio since returning from the disabled list on August 19 with a right elbow nerve impingement and as noted, takes a |
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09-16-17 | Diamondbacks v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The Arizona Diamondbacks won 3-2 last night at San Francisco in the first of a three-game series against the against the Giants. The Diamondbacks won without the services of a scorching J.D. Martinez (10 HRs over his last 11 games), who was a late scratch because of a stiff neck. Fellow outfielder A.J. Pollock picked up the slack with a two-run double in the seventh inning that rallied Arizona from behind (note: Martinez will be re-evaluated before Saturday's game). The loss was just another nail in the coffin in what's become a 'nightmare' season for the Giants. San Francisco has 'caught' the Phillies for MLB's worst record (SF is now 57-92) and the Giants have owned MLB's worst moneyline mark for quite some time now (minus-$3960, which is about $1000 worse than any other team!). The pitching matchup: Two outstanding pitchers square off, although only one is having an excellent season. That would be Zach Greinke (16-6 & 2.99 ERA), who goes for Arizona. The Giants will send Madison Bumgarner (3-8 & 3.55 ERA). Greinke can gain a share of the major-league lead in victories, as he seeks his 17th win. That would tie Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers and the Brewers' Zach Davies for the lead. Greinke has been dominanat over his last four outings, posting a 2.03 ERA and 0.86 WHIP (he's 2-0 and the team 3-1). He has won eight of his past 10 decisions. More good news comes Arizona's way in that he's had all sorts of success vs. the Giants, going 10-2 with a 2.56 ERA in 16 career starts (teams are 13-3). Bumgarner has lost three straight starts and allowed 11 runs in as many innings over his last two starts, during an uncharacteristically poor stretch. Bumgarner is 0-2 with a 3.00 ERA in three starts against Arizona this season (Giants are 0-3) and 9-9 in 28 starts (team is 15-13) against the D'backs in his career. The pick: Tough to get involved with the Giants these days but note that Bumgarner owns an excellent 2.61 ERA in 28 career starts vs. the D'backs (that's quite a sample size!). As for Greinke, I noted his terrific career numbers against the Giants above and will add here that he owns a 1.66 ERA in six career outings at AT&T Park. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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09-16-17 | Dodgers -145 v. Nationals | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dodgers opened a three-game series in Washington against the Nationals last night and came away with an impressive 7-0 win. Justin Turner, Yasiel Puig and Corey Seager all homered in the first two innings, while Alex Wood delivered a dominant pitching performance (three hits over six scoreless innings with eight Ks). Los Angeles has now won three in a row, after dropping 16 of 17 from Aug. 26-Sep. 11. The Nationals were able to muster only four hits against Wood and two relievers, while falling for the third time in four outings. The offense has been lacking for the NL East champions over that stretch, as the Nats have totaled just seven runs while getting shut out twice. The defeat also left Washington six games back of the Dodgers for the NL's best record. The pitching matchup: Rich Hill (9-8 & 3.67 ERA) starts for LA and A.J. Cole (2-4 & 4.30 ERA) for Washington. Hill needs to get things turned around, as he has lost four starts in a row, beginning with his near-perfect game back on August 23 at Pittsburgh. He was obviously brilliant in that outing vs. the Prates but he owns a 6.14 ERA over his last three outings. Hill last faced Washington twice in the 2016 NL Divisional Series and permitted five runs across seven innings over two starts. He's 1-2 with a 5.11 ERA all-time vs. the Nats (teams are 3-2). Cole will be making his first start for the Nationals since getting the win at Miami back on Sep. 4, having pitched twice in relief over that span. He worked two scoreless innings against Philadelphia last Saturday but was roughed up for three runs on five hits across two innings versus Atlanta on Tuesday. This is Cole's first career start against the Dodgers. The pick: Hill has looked pretty shaky these last three starts and note that he enters this contest having given up at least one HR in eight consecutive outings. However, one could have said the same of Wood, before last night. The Dodgers look as if they have 'righted the ship' and today face Cole, who has spent most of this year at Triple-A Syracuse He has pitched in just eight games with Washington, including six starts, going 2-4. He has given up six HRs in 37 2/3 innings at the major league level this year. The Dodgers will post their most wins in a season since going 98-64 in 1977 with one more win. That win comes right here! Make the Dodgers an 8* play. |
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09-15-17 | Dodgers v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -137 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dodgers still boast the best record in the majors (94-52), despite losing 16 of 17 from Aug. 26-Sep. 11. That slump has allowed the 89-57 Nationals, who have already clinched the NL East, to close within five games of Los Angeles atop the National League standings. The Dodgers did lower their magic number to clinch the NL West to seven by capturing the final two contests of their three-game set in San Francisco, their first series victory in just under three weeks. These two NL 'heavyweights' open a three-game series tonight in the nation's capital. The pitching matchup: Alex Wood (14-3 & 2.81 ERA) gets the nod for LA and Edwin Jackson (5-5 & 4.14 ERA) for Washington. Wood opened 11-0 after 16 starts (Dodgers were 13-3), while posting a 1.56 ERA. However, over his last eight starts, he's 3-3 (team is 5-3) but more worrisome is his 5.10 ERA in that span. Wood hasn't faced Washington since 2015 and is 3-3 with a 2.78 ERA over nine starts (teams are 5-4). Jackson joined the Nationals in mid-June and after some solid outings, has labored through two September starts, going 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA. The former Dodgers farmhand is 4-3 with a 4.15 ERA in 10 career games (eight starts / teams are 4-4) versus the Dodgers. The pick: Wood is battling a sternum injury and that is more than likely the cause of his recent woes. As for Jackson, the Nats have to be concerned about him allowing nine ERs on 12 hits over just nine innings of his last two starts. Plenty of firepower in both lineups and the Over is an 8* play. |
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09-15-17 | Cardinals v. Cubs -116 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cubs saw their lead in the NL Central dwindle to two games after Milwaukee swept them at Wrigley Field last weekend but the Cubbie bats rebounded in a three-game sweep of the Mets in Wrigley from Tuesday through Thursday. After producing only five runs on 19 hits against the Brewers, the Cubs exploded for 39 runs on 41 hits while winning each of the three games by at least five runs! The sweep of the Mets enabled the defending world champions to maintain their three-game advantage over Milwaukee and St. Louis in the Central heading into the weekend. The Cardinals improved to 10-3 this month following a 5-2 victory over Cincinnati on Thursday and are actually closer in the wild card race, trailing Colorado by 2 1/2 games for the second NL wild-card spot. Coming off a 5-1 homestand, St. Louis' pivotal 10-game road trip begins this afternoon at Wrigley. The Cards have lost eight of the 12 meetings this season with the Cubs, including five of six in Chicago. These NL Central rivals will face each other seven times over their final 16 contests. The pitching matchup: Carlos Martinez (11-10 & 3.33 ERA) takes the mound for St. Louis and John Lackey (11-11 & 4.65 ERA) for Chicago. Martinez has not been quite as good in 2017 as in the previous two seasons but he's been exceptional in September, posting a 1.20 ERA while striking out 18 and holding opponents to a .135 batting average. Martinez last faced the Cubs on July 21, when he did not factor in the decision after permitting three runs two earned) in six innings. Martinez is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three starts against the Cubs this year (Cards are 3-0!) He is 1-1 with a 3.19 ERA in four career starts at Wrigley Field,and 4-3 with a 4.08 ERA in 22 career games (12 starts / 8-4) vs. Chicago. Like Martinez, Lacket's about a .500 pitcher on the season (see above). However, Chicago is 9-2 in Lackey's last 11 starts and he's 6-2 with a 3.67 ERA in 10 starts since the All-Star break. Lackey also has been sharp in two starts this month, giving up two runs and seven hits while striking out 14 in as many innings. Lackey is 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA in two starts this season versus the Cardinals, yielding two runs over seven innings against them in a no-decision on June 2. He is 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA in two starts this season versus the Cardinals and 3-2 with a 2.56 ER in eight career starts against the Cards (teams are 4-4). The pick: The Cardinals and Brewers (both 77-69) are tied for second, just three games behind the 80-66 Cubs in the division race. "We've got to take care of ourselves," Cubs left-hander Jon Lester said. "That's the big thing, you can't worry about other people. We're fine, we've just got to play good baseball, and that's what we've been doing." The Cubs are 37-21 since the All-Star break and they have spent the past 51 days in first place in the division. The Cubs have scored a major league-best 347 runs since the All-Star break and rank second in the NL for the season with 746 runs (5.11 per). Chicago has handled St. Louis this season (8-4), including going 5-1 at Wrigley. Make Chicago a 10* play. Cubs win! Cubs win! |
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09-14-17 | Mariners v. Rangers UNDER 10.5 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mariners and Rangers meet Thursday in the final contest of this four-game series at Arlington. Seattle followed Tuesday's 10-3 win with an 8-1 victory on Wednesday, after Texas had won Monday's opener, 5-3. The Seattle win (Mariners are just 4-5 their last nine) keeps them just 3 1/2 games behind the Twins for the AL's second wild card spot, while Texas dropped four games back after getting outscored 18-4 in back-to-back losses the last two nights. Heading into tonight's series finale, Seattle leads the season series against Texas 10-5. The pitching matchup: Felix Hernandez (5-4 & 4.28 ERA) returns from his second shoulder injury of the season and will take the mound for Seattle, while Andrew Cashner (9-9 & 3.19 ERA) gets the nod for Texas. Hernandez has missed the past six-plus weeks with his latest injury, with his most-recent appearance being a no-decision against the Rangers back on July 31. Hernandez hasn't pitched like a 'King' in 2017, as he's allowed 16 HRs in only 13 starts (his career worst is 23 for an entire season!). The veteran has pitched more than six innings on just three occasions and hasn't posted a single 10-strikeout performance, which is hard to believe considering he has 2,333 Ks in his career. Hernandez is 1-0 with a 3.55 ERA in two starts against the Rangers this year (team is 2-0) and 19-23 with a 3.93 ERA in 52 career starts (Mariners are 23-29). Cashner has pitched well over his last three starts, going 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA. He settled for a no-decision against the New York Yankees in his last outing, although he allowed just one run on four hits over seven innings (Texas lost 3-1). Cashner is 1-1 with a 2.60 ERA in three starts against Seattle this season (Texas is 1-2) and 1-3 with a 3.26 ERA in seven career appearances (six starts / teams are 2-4). The pick: The Mariners are hoping Hernandez and James Paxton (slated to return from a pectoral injury on Friday) can provide a boost as they try to chase down Minnesota for the American League's second wild-card spot. Here, the Mariners need "the old King Felix" to show up. Let me also note that Cashner, despite his modest 9-9 record, is having the best season of his career. He has gone 6-2 with a 2.49 ERA over his last 11 starts (Texas is 7-4) to lower season ERA from 3.87 to 3.19, sixth-lowest among AL qualifiers. "He's been the most consistent guy out there," Texas manager Jeff Banister said. "He's missed a little time but has progressively gotten better throughout the year. He's been a stabilizer in that rotation. He's pitched like a front-end-of-the-rotation pitcher for us." Make the Under a 10* play. |
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09-14-17 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -161 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Colorado Rockies won the first two games of their four-game series at the Arizona Diamondbacks, closing to within three games of them in the race for the National League's top wild card spot. However, the D'backs won 8-2 last night, snapping the Rockies' six-game overall winning streak and moving four games up on Colorado in the wild card race. The Rockies aren't just looking up, as they also need to keep an eye on the Brewers, who closed to withing three games of Colorado for the NL's second wild card spot by winning 8-2 last night. Arizona hosts Colorado in the series finale this afternoon. The pitching matchup: Chad Bettis (1-2 & 4.98 ERA), who missed the first 4 1/2 months of the season due to his battle with testicular cancer, takes the mound for Colorado, opposed by Arizona's Zack Godley (7-7 & 3.18 ERA). Bettis finally recorded his first victory of the season on Saturday, in his sixth start since his return from battling cancer. He gave up four runs (three earned) on six hits over five innings against the Dodgers in Los Angeles, striking out five without issuing a walk in a 6-5 win. He takes the mound with a 1-1 record and an unimpressive 7.30 ERA in nine career appearances (six starts / teams are 4-2) versus Arizona. Godley settled for a no-decision against San Diego on Saturday, after allowing two runs on four hits over seven innings (D'backs lost 8-7). Godley also recorded nine strikeouts and did not walk a batter on Saturday and overall, has had a solid 2017 season. He's allowed just 103 hits over 136.0 innings, owns a 145-47 KW ratio plus to go along with his solid 3.18 ERA, owns a 1.10 WHIP and .211 BAA Godley won his first career start versus the Rockies back on June 22 in Denver (10-3), after making two relief appearances against the club last season. The pick: I've been impressed by Godley and while it's hard to "root against" Bettis in his fight with cancer, I'll back the D'backs, who own a 47-27 home record, outscoring opponents 5.55-to-4.12 RPG. Only the Dodgers have more home wins (52) but no team owns a better home moneyline mark than Arizona at plus-$1305.. Make Arizona an 8* play. |
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09-13-17 | Astros v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 105 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
The set up: Thanks to Justin Verlander, Houston won a good old fashioned pitcher's duel last night, 1-0 over the Angels. The win snapped a four-game losing streak for the AL West leaders and reduced their magic number to five. The loss hurt the Angels as they fell to two games back of Minnesota in the battle for the American League's final playoff berth. There has been a pitching change for tonight as the Astros will be going with Michael Fiers rather than Lance McCullers (arm fatigue). My play here still stands. The pitching matchup: The move from McCullers to Fiers doesn't impact my play here because neither was going to match what we saw from Verlander (eight shutout innings of one-hit ball) last night. Fiers has allowed a total of 14 runs in his last two starts and the Over is 6-2 when he starts on the road. A 5.08 ERA on the road shows that it's not the offense that's responsible for those Overs as Fiers clearly hasn't pitched well either. Angels starter Tyler Skaggs isn't exactly in top form either coming into tonight as he's allowed a total of 19 runs in his previous four starts. One of them was against Houston and he allowed five runs in five innings. The pick: Neither starting pitcher figures to perform well tonight and thus it's going to be a very different matchup compared to last night. Houston leads all of baseball (by a wide margin) in runs per game scored on the road at 6.1. Thus, it should come as no shock that the Over is 41-24-7 in all of their road game this season. The Angels aren't nearly the offensive juggernaut that Houston is, but they do have Mike Trout in their lineup and figure to score at least a few runs off Fiers. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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09-13-17 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -117 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
The set up: The Blue Jays rallied to beat the Orioles last night, 3-2, scoring two runs in the bottom of the ninth. That makes it two straight for the home team in this series as they also won Monday, again by one run (4-3). At this time last week, Baltimore considered itself a Wild Card contender, but even the biggest optimist on the Birds would have to re-consider that position as the team has now dropped six in a row to fall three games below .500 and 4.5 back of the Twins for the final Wild Card. Toronto, who is out of playoff contention, has won its last four games. The pitching matchup: It will be Marcus Stroman going today for the Jays. While it's not reflected at the betting window, Stroman is his team's best starter. He easily leads the rotation in both ERA and WHIP, plus his 17 wins are three more than every other starter. While he hasn't won in almost a month, Stroman has had Baltimore's number this year, not giving up an earned run to them in two starts. The Orioles go with Kevin Gausman here. He wasn't good in his last start (gave up five runs in three innings) and has a 4.99 ERA and 1.587 WHIP for the season. The pick: Not only has Baltimore struggled of late, they're just a bad road team. A 26-44 record away from Camden Yards does little to inspire any confidence that they'll avoid the sweep tonight. Nor does the fact they've been outscored 28-10 during the six-game losing streak. This team won't beat you with its pitching and seeing as Stroman should shut down a lineup that's hitting a collective .193 its last seven contests, the Blue Jays should win rather handily. Make Toronto a 10* |
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09-12-17 | Dodgers v. Giants UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 0 m | Show |
The set up: The Dodgers now own the dubious distinction of being the first team in MLB history to have both won and lost 15 of 16 games in the same season. Their losing streak has hit 11 games following last night's 8-6 setback at the hands of the Giants. Despite being huge favorites with Clayton Kershaw starting tonight, the NL West leaders are basically "unplayable" at this point as they have to show me some semblance of getting back on track. The Giants are having a disastrous season as they are 36 games back of Los Angeles and have been one of the worst teams in baseball for most of 2017. The pitching matchup: Even the great Kershaw hasn't been immune to his team's recent futility. His last start saw him last only 3 2/3 innings and he allowed four runs as the Dodgers lost 9-1 to the Rockies as -305 favorites! But I fully anticipate him bouncing back here. The Dodgers lone win in the last 17 games came with Kershaw on the mound as he threw six innings of shutout ball. Kershaw is clearly still one of the best pitchers in baseball and on the road his record is 8-1 to go along with a 1.45 ERA and 0.893 WHIP. San Francisco goes with Johnny Cueto here and he at least should give the team a "fighting chance." Cueto has a solid 3.21 ERA in 16 career starts vs. Los Angeles. The pick: Due to a three-plus hour rain delay, last night's game didn't end until after 2 am PT! That should give a huge edge to the pitchers in this one. Not that Kershaw needs it; he's beaten the Giants 20 times in his career and has 1.62 ERA while doing it. It also helps that the Giants have scored the second fewest runs in all of baseball. Cueto is off one of his best starts of the year though and as mentioned before, should keep his team in it. The Dodgers have scored one run or less in five of their last eight contests. The Under seems like a logical call here, so make it a 10* play. |
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09-12-17 | White Sox v. Royals -170 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
The set up: The Royals were crushed Monday, 11-3 by the White Sox, a result that did their fleeting playoff hopes no favors. The way things stand now is that Kansas City is three games back of Minnesota for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. Though they've won three straight, the White Sox have the AL's worst record, so this is a series that the Royals simply MUST take advantage of, as they're only 7-7 vs. Chicago this year. It's a quick turnaround with Tuesday's game being played during the daytime. The pitching matchup: Sam Gaviglio pitches for KC today. Things have not gone well for him as he has a 7.47 ERA his previous three starts. But that's a little bit misleading seeing as only one of those starts has come since the All-Star Break. It was exactly one week ago and Gaviglio pitched well, allowing just one run in five innings. It was the fifth time in 12 starts that Gaviglio allowed 1 or 0 runs while going at least five innings this season. He'll face off with anothe rookie today, Dylan Covey, who has yet to record a win in his big league career. His team start record is 3-5, but he's personally 0-4. His 8.13 ERA and 1.806 WHIP won't exactly bring him any sympathy. Covey last started a game in May. Since coming off the DL in August, he's been working out of the bullpen. He threw 4 2/3 innings back on 8.21 against Minnesota and the results weren't pretty as he allowed two home runs. The pick: This is a must win for the Royals and by starting Covey, it appears as if Chicago is making it easy on them. The Sox have been a terrible road team most of the year with a 23-46 record away from home, which includes a 9-23 mark when priced between +125 and +175 (as they are here). This being a day game seems to favor the home team as well. Kansas City averages 5.0 rpg in afternoon affairs and facing Covey, they should be able to top that average with ease. Make KC an 8* play. |
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09-11-17 | Mariners v. Rangers -132 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
The set up: Seven teams are separated by just 3.5 games in the fight for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. You can count both the Mariners and Rangers among them. Texas is 71-71 on the year and has arguably played better than any of their fellow Wild Card contenders. But they lost two of three to the Yankees over the weekend, which did them no favors. Seattle is off a winning weekend as they took two of three from the Angels in a critical series. But that was at home and the M's have still lost four of six overall. They've been a big money loser as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this year, going just 9-17. The pitching matchup: Texas will have Cole Hamels starting this all-important series opener. While he hasn't pitched all that well of late (8.22 ERA last three starts!), Hamels is unbeaten in Arlington this year, going 6-0 in nine starts here. Seattle has given him trouble in the past, but getting to pitch at home tonight should be huge for the southpaw. Seattle goes with Ariel Miranda, who has won just one time in his last 11 trips to the mound. Despite a 10-5 team start record, Miranda has some pretty ugly numbers when pitching on the road and unlike Hamels there isn't much of a track record to lean on with him. The pick: Supporters may point to the fact that Miranda didn't allow a hit in his last start (lasted six innings). But that's a little bit misleading as he walked six, which heavily contributed to the fact Seattle lost 3-1 to Houston. His previous road start saw Miranda allow six runs. Texas, which lost 16-7 on Sunday, is 25-15 after allowing 10 or more runs the previous game. Make Texas a 10* play! |
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09-09-17 | Tigers v. Blue Jays -154 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: When the Tigers dealt away Justin Verlander at the trade deadline (Aug. 31), it was the team's way of 'saying uncle' to the 2017 season. However, some building blocks for the future like Nick Castellanos still remain. Castellanos hit his third career grand slam in last night's 5-4 win at Toronto, while rookie third baseman Jeimer Candelario, highlighted the defensive the defensive effort by starting a triple play. The 60-80 Tigers are not all that much worse than the Blue Jays, who have now lost nine of 12 and sit at 64-77. The pitching matchup: Chad Bell (0-2 & 5.98 ERA) starts for Detroit and Brett Anderson (2-3 & 6.42 ERA) for Toronto. Bell is a 28-year-old rookie who had made 19 relief appearances before getting knocked around for five runs on eight hits in four innings in his debut start last Sunday against Cleveland (Indians won 11-1). He gets a second start here against Toronto. Anderson began the season with the Chicago Cubs before being waived on August 1, after which he was signed to a minor-league deal by Toronto. He is making his third start for Blue Jays and will look for his first win despite pitching fairly well against Boston and Baltimore (3.09 ERA). He owns a 3-3 record (4.45 ERA) in six career starts vs. Detroit. The pick: In this game between two also-rans, it sure seems like Toronto is the much better choice in this one. Anderson is a veteran lefty with some savvy. Anderson is trying to regain a starting role after going 2-2 with an 8.18 ERA in six starts this season with the Cubs before being released. As noted above, he has looked decent in his two previous starts for Toronto. Meanwhile, Bell makes just his second career start (this is his 21st appearance in 2017), having allowed 57 hits in his 46.2 innings, with a 1.69 WHIP and .298 BAA to go along with his unsightly 5.98 ERA. Make Toronto a 10*. |
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09-08-17 | Astros -161 v. A's | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -161 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Astros were off on Thursday and on Friday will open a four-game series in Oakland, which continues the team's 10-game road trip. Houston seeks an eighth consecutive victory tonight in Oakland but the Indians have ripped off 15 straight wins, closing to within 2 1/2 games of the Astros for the best record in the American League (note: Cleveland won the season series from Houston, meaning if both teams tie for the most wins, Cleveland would earn the home field edge). Last-place Oakland (AL West) halted an eight-game skid with a 3-1 victory over the LA Angels but hardly seems capable (interested?) in competing against the Astros in this series. The pitching matchup: Collin McHugh (2-2 & 3.25 ERA) is back healthy and is now a regular part of the starting rotation for Houston. He'll be opposed by Oakland's Jharel Cotton (7-10 & 5.53 ERA). McHugh didn't make his first start of 2017 until July 22. He allowed four ERs over just 4 2/3 innings in his first start and seven ERs in his fourth (5 1/3 innings). However, in his other six outings, he's allowed just five ERs over 34 1/3 innings (1.31 ERA). McHugh was denied a chance at winning his third straight start last time out when he was pulled after 4 2/3 innings despite yielding one run on four hits against Texas. McHugh pitched six scoreless innings in a 3-0 win over Oakland on Aug. 19, upping his career record against the A's to 7-1 with a 2.73 ERA in 10 starts (team is 9-1). Cotton is a rookie making his 22nd start of 2017. He did beat the Astros on Aug. 20 by tossing 6 2/3 innings of two-run ball but going back to July 3, he has surrendered at least four runs in six of his eight starts (6.38 ERA in that span). Cotton is 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA in three career starts vs. Houston (A's are 1-2). The pick: Home has not been where the heart is for Cotton in this, his first full season in the majors. He owns a respectable 3.81 ERA in 10 road starts but in 11 home starts, his ERA is a bloated 7.09 and his WHIP is 1.58. Reminding all of Houston's seven-game winning streak and McHugh's OUTSTANDING career record vs. Oakland (see above), what's not to like about Houston? Make the Astros a 10* play. |
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09-08-17 | Orioles v. Indians -141 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Indians coasted past the Chicago White Sox by an 11-2 margin on Thursday (MLB's longest undefeated trip since 1957!), completing an 11-0 road trip. Overall, Cleveland now owns a franchise-record 15-game winning streak, eclipsing its 14-game streak from a year ago. The Indians also maintained their commanding 11-game lead in the AL Central with Thursday's victory. The Orioles have clawed their way back into AL wild card race but have exchanged wins and losses over their last eight games, after Thursday's 9-1 loss against the NY Yankees. Baltimore enters this three-game road series with the Indians two games back of the Twins for the second AL wild-card spot (Angels are one game ahead of the Orioles). Also note that four other teams are no more than two back of Baltimore. The pitching matchup: Wade Miley (8-11, 4.91 ERA) takes the mound for Baltimore and Mike Clevinger (8-5 & 3.50 ERA) for Cleveland. It has not been a good year for Miley but he has allowed three runs or less in his last seven starts. He has allowed 32 hits in 38 2/3 innings during this current seven-start stretch, posting a 2.79 ERA (Baltimore is 5-2). Miley is 1-2 with a 5.03 ERA in four career starts vs. the Indians (teams are 2-2). Clevinger is an "under the radar" pitcher in 2017, having gone 8-4 with a 3.18 ERA as a starter this year, striking out 107 in 96 1/3 innings. He's posted consecutive scoreless outings (home to KC and at Detroit, a span of 12 innings), heading into this start. He got the win opposite Miley 6-3 over the Orioles on June 22 in Baltimore but has surrendered six runs on 10 hits with seven walks in two starts (nine innings) against the Orioles (1-0 & 6.00 ERA / team is 1-1). The pick: Baltimore's back in the wild card hunt but why try to 'step in front of' this Cleveland 'train?' The Indians have pulled away from the pack in the AL Central and still have a chance to run down Houston for the No. 1 seed in the AL playoffs. 84-56 Cleveland only trails 86-53 Houston by 2 1/2 games and the Indians only need to finish in a tie with Astros, as Cleveland went 5-1 versus the Houston this year. Make Cleveland an 8* play. |
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09-07-17 | Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: LA's 'free-fall' has been sudden and dramatic. Los Angeles was outscored 19-2 during a three-game home sweep at the hands of wild card-leading Arizona D'backs, trimming its lead in the NL West to 10 1/2 games. While the Diamondbacks have won 13 straight games, the Dodgers have lost six in a row and 11 of their last 12 contests. Colorado missed a chance to distance themselves from the pack in the NL wild-card race by going just 3-6 on its just-completed nine-game homestand. Colorado has fallen 7 1/2 games back of the red-hot D'backs for the No. 1 wild card spot and now is looking over its shoulder at the Cards (two back) and Brewers ( 21/2 games back). Can Colorado gain some separation on the road as it begins a crucial eight-game road trip on Thursday with the opener of a four-game series against the major league-best but suddenly struggling 92-47 LA Dodgers. The pitching matchup: Jon Gray (6-4 & 4.26 ERA) steps to the mound for Colorado and Clayton Kershaw (16-2 & 1.95 ERA) for LA. Gray has been very solid by allowing three runs or less in each of his last eight starts but is just 3-3 in that span (Rockies are only 3-5). Gray is 2-3 with a 3.75 ERA in seven career starts (Rockies are 4-3) against Los Angeles, including a no-decision on April 8 in which he allowed one run over 5 1/3 frames despite yielding four hits and three walks. Kershaw makes just his second start since missing over one month with a lower back strain. He showed no ill effects from the injury in his return, as he allowed two hits and struck out seven over six scoreless innings of a 1-0 triumph at San Diego on Friday (LA's lone win in the team's last 12 games). Kershaw yielded four runs over six frames in a loss at Colorado on April 8 but won his next three starts against the Rockies in 2017, allowing a total of four runs over 20 innings, to improve to 21-6 (3.05 ERA) lifetime versus the Rockies in 36 starts (Dodgers are 27-9). The pick: Kershaw has been un-hittable in 2017, as he'll take a 12-game winning streak into this contest (last loss was back on May 1, with the Dodgers going in 16-0 his starts over that span). Kershaw has allowed just 103 hits in 147 1/3 innings with a 175-24 KW ratio, an 0.86 WHIP and a BAA of .193! Meanwhile, Gray enters pitching well too, a job made easier by the LA bats suddenly going 'silent.' The Dodgers have lost five straight at home, while scoring just four runs (note; LA has averaged just 2.2 5 RPG in losing 11 of 12). Make the Under a 10* play. |
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09-07-17 | Twins v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Cleveland's 14-game winning streak has helped them all but run away and hide in the AL Central at 83-56, leaving the 72-67 Tins and the 69-69 Royals battling for a wild card spot. The Twins currently hold down the No. 2 AL wild card spot, while the Royals are one of SIX teams lurking behind Minnesota, no more than three games behind (Royals are 2 1/2 back). The two division rivals open a pivotal four-game series on Thursday in Kansas City. The Royals return home off a 4-2 road trip, while the Twins come to KC after losing two of three at home to the Royals last weekend, before opening the new week by losing two of three at Tampa Bay. The pitching matchup: Kyle Gibson (9-10 & 5.33 ERA) gets the nod for Minnesota and Sam Gaviglio (3-5 & 4.62 ERA) for KC. Gibson tossed six scoreless innings in a 17-0 rout of the Royals last Friday, his third consecutive win. He's allowed only three runs over 19 2/3 innings during his winning streak (1.37 ERA), dropping his ERA below 5.40 for the first time this season! He's pitched reasonably well against KC in his career, posting a 6-4 record and 3.53 ERA in 14 starts (1team is 10-4). Gaviglio was claimed off waivers from Seattle last week and will be thrust into a big spot in his Royals debut. He makes his first start in the majors since losing four straight starts with the Mariners from June 24-July 18 (allowed 17 ERs over 23 innings in that span for a 6.65 ERA). He will be seeking his first win since beating the Twins in Minnesota on June 14 (his only career start vs. the Twins), although note that Gaviglio surrendered three HRs in that win. The pick: I'm not sure what KC may have seen in Gaviglio in claiming off waivers? I see a 6.65 ERA in his last four starts while with the Mariners. As for Gibson, he owns a 1.61 WHIP and .300 BAA to go along with his 5.33 ERA on the season for the Twins. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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09-07-17 | Phillies v. Nationals -162 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Nationals come off a three-game sweep at Miami, putting them on the fast track to their fourth NL East title in six years (currently 18 games up on the Marlins). The Nats welcome Philadelphia for a four-game series beginning tonight, in what will be a season-high 10-game homestand. The Phillies have been going nowhere most of the season and remain owners of MLB's worst record at 53-86, 32 games back of the Nats. The pitching matchup: Aaron Nola (10-10 & 3.72 ERA) goes for Philadelphia and Tanner Roark (11-9 & 4.48 ERA) for Washington. Nola was shelled for the third time in four outings on Saturday, allowing six runs on 10 hits in five innings of a 10-9 loss at Miami. In losing three of those four outings, he has allowed 19 runs on 31 hits over 23 1/3 innings for a 7.33 ERA. Nola is 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA in eight career outings against the Nationals (team is 2-6). Roark comes in pitching well, having delivered quality starts in seven of his last nine outings. Roark owns a 4-4 record and 3.46 ERA in 13 career starts versus Philadelphia (team is 6-7). The pick: The Phillies are a woeful 25-49 on the road and while Roark's career record is not all that impressive against Philadelphia, look a little closer. He was 3-0 with an 0.79 ERA in five starts against the Phillies in 2016 and while he has three no-decisions vs. Philly in 2017, he owns a 2.75 ERA in those games, holding the Phillies to a collective .194 batting average. Make Washington an 8* play. |
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09-06-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -165 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -165 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
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09-06-17 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Indians made it a 'lucky' 13th straight win last night, rolling over the AL-worst White Sox, 9-4. Cleveland can now match the franchise record of 14 consecutive victories (set by last season's team) when they take on Chicago in the third contest of this four-game series on Wednesday. Jose Ramirez hit two HRs in Tuesday's win (13 straight wins is the majors' longest in 2017), making him 19-for-38 with seven HRs over his last nine games. The White Sox have dropped six of their last eight and are a horrific 29 games below .500 at 54-83. The pitching matchup: Carlos Carrasco (13-6 & 3.67 ERA) starts for Cleveland and Reynaldo Lopez (0-2 & 6.06 ERA) for Chicago. Carrasco is 3-1 over his last five outings (team is 4-1) and has allowed two runs or less in four of those starts. He is just one victory away from matching the career high he set in 2015 (14-12) and 17 strikeouts shy of his second campaign with 200. Carrasco has gone 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA in three starts (Indians are 3-0), improving his carrer record to 5-9 with a 4.82 ERA in 20 career appearances (19 starts / team is 8-11) against Chicago. Lopez makes his fourth start of the season for the White Sox. He seeks his first win since Sept. 29, 2016, against Arizona while with the Nationals. Lopez was acquired by the White Sox last December as part of a trade that sent outfielder Adam Eaton to Washington. He was called up from Triple-A on Aug. 11 and placed on the disabled list due to a strained back eight days later. Lopez was reinstated Friday and took the 3-1 loss that night against the Tampa Bay Rays, allowing three runs, five hits and a walk while striking out a season-high seven over six innings. The pick: Cleveland has outscored opponents 93-25 during its winning streak, has won 17 of its past 19 games away from Progressive Field (9-0 on its current 11-game road trip that ends Thursday) and the Indians now lead the AL Central by 11 games over the Twins. Cleveland prices are now 'sky-high' but I'll look to the Under to be an 8* play. |
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09-06-17 | Brewers v. Reds -151 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cubs have opened the week with back-to-back losses at Pittsburgh, leaving the 'door wide open' for the Brewers, who traveled to Cincinnati to play the last-place Reds (NL Central) for a three-game series. However, it's been "Opportunity Lost" for the Brewers, who lost a 5-4 squeaker on Monday and then fell again last night, 9-3. Staff ace Zach Davies did his job (allowed two runs, one earned, over 5 2/3 innings) but four relievers allowed seven runs over 2 1/3 innings. Scooter Gennett's three-run HR (8th inning) was the decisive blow in Tuesday's victory for the 60-79 Reds, who will now go for a three-game sweep of the Brewers on Wednesday afternoon. Milwaukee enters this contest 3 1/2 games behind first-place Chicago in the NL Central and 2 1/2 back of Colorado for the second NL wild card spot. The pitching matchup: Matt Garza (6-8 & 4.77 ERA) takes the mound for Milwaukee and Luis Castillo (2-7 & 3.32 ERA) for Cincinnati. Garza was scheduled to pitch Sunday versus Washington but had that start skipped in the wake of another rocky outing, in which he gave up six runs (three earned) and walked five in 3 1/3 innings against St. Louis on Aug. 29. Garza has been OK at home (he's 5-3 with a 3.92 ERA and the team 7-5) but on the road, it's been another story. Garza is 1-5 over nine starts (team is 2-7) with a 5.81 ERA. Garza overcame five walks to beat the Reds with 5 1/3 innings of four-run ball (three earned) on Aug. 13 but is just 5-5 with a 4.74 ERA in 16 starts against Cincinnati all-time (teams are 8-8). Castillo owns a respectable 3.32 ERA on the season but his win-less drought reached six starts (he's 0-3 but the Reds are 3-3) in a no-decision at Pittsburgh this past Friday, when he lasted only four innings and gave up two runs on three hits. He was a hard-luck loser in a 1-0 setback to Pittsburgh in his previous outing, tying his season high with nine strikeouts and yielding one run on three hits in seven innings. He also had nine strikeouts versus Milwaukee on June 28, his lone start against the Brewers (0-0 with a 3.17 ERA in game the Reds won). The pick: Garza had that breakout season at Tampa Bay back in 2010 (15-10) but in seven-plus seasons since leaving the Rays, has won 10 games just once, pitching for the Cubs, Rangers and now Brewers. Since the beginning of 2015, his ERA is a bloated 5.05. As noted above, it's 5.81 in 2017 in nine road starts, so why trust Garza here? Meanwhile, in 14 starts in 2017, Castillo owns a 3.32 ERA, has allowed a modest 60 hits in 81 1/3 innings plus owns an opponents BA of .208. Make the Reds an 8*! |
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09-05-17 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Astros were just 10-17 from Aug. 1-30, but have now scored 35 runs on 46 hits during their five-game winning streak, after they opened a 10-game road trip witha 6-2 win last night in Seattle. Houston owns the American League's best record (84-53), as well as a commanding 13 1/2-game lead in the NL West. Seattle has now dropped six of its last nine contests and sits three games behind Minnesota for the AL's second wild-card berth plus has three teams between themselves and the Twins..
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09-05-17 | Nationals -160 v. Marlins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The Nationals won 7-2 last night in Miami over the Marlins, as Giancarlo Stanton's 53rd HR of the season (sixth in 17 games this season vs. Washington) was not nearly enough for Miami. The NL East-leading Nationals stand at 83-54 through Labor Day and while the Dodgers (92-45) and Astros (just barely at 84-53) own better record than the Nats, Washington's 16-game lead is the largest of any in MLB. The Marlins clearly have zero chance to catch Washington and the team is starting to lose touch in the NL wild card race as well, falling six games back with two teams between the Marlins and that second-wild card team (currently, Colorado). The pitching matchup: This three-game series continues tonight with Stephen Strasburg (11-4 & 2.90 ERA) going for the Nats and Odrisamer Despaigne (0-2 & 4.13 ERA) for the Marlins. Strasburg comes into this game having thrown 15 scoreless innings over his last two starts and has posted a stellar 1.35 ERA over his last seven outings, a stretch interrupted by about a three-week stay on the DL. Strasburg is 14-7 with a 3.26 ERA in 27 career starts versus the Marlins (Nats are 18-9). Despaigne is making his fourth start for the Marlins in 2017 (three in a row now), after lasting only four innings in a 3-2 loss to Philadelphia last time out. Despaigne is 0-1 with a 6.97 ERA in five career appearances (one start / 0-1 & 21.00 ERA!) against the Nationals. The pick: Strasburg is 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in two starts against Miami this season (both in Washington) but he 's been a better pitcher on the road this season, going 7-2 with a 2.23 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 12 road starts (Nats are 9-3). Miami actually won six of the first 11 meetings of 2017 against Washington but Monday's win was the Nats' sixth in a row over the Marlins. Miami has Stanton but Washington has TOO much for the Marlins (note: Stanton was hit-less in four at-bats last Wednesday against Strasburg). Make the Nats a 10* play. |
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09-05-17 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Toronto Blue Jays opened the 2017 season 2-11 and by the end of April, sat at 8-17. Toronto has never recovered from its poor start. The team which has appeared in each of the last two ALCS matchups beat the Red Sox 7-2 in Boston on Monday but through Labor Day, the Blue Jays are 64-74 (that's 56-57 since May 1). Toronto has fallen 13 games back in the AL East and while the deficit is about half of that in the wild card race (7 1/2 games back of the Twins), the Jays would have to first climb over SIX teams before challenging Minnesota for that second wild card spot. Boston's loss was its eighth time in 12 contests and saw the team's lead in the American League East shrink to 2 1/2 games over the Yankees, who just took three of four from the Red Sox. The pitching matchup: Marco Estrada (7-8 & 5.23 ERA) will start for Toronto and Eduardo Rodriguez (4-5 & 4.40 ERA) for Boston. Estrada has hardly been sharp in his last two starts (nine ERs allowed on 15 hits over 11 innings for a 7.36 ERA) but with the benefit of 21 runs of support, he's won them both to reach 7-8 on the season. He does own 156 strikeouts over 156 1/3 innings but he's also surrendered 26 homers in his 28 starts. Estrada is 3-3 with a 3.48 ERA in 10 career starts vs. Boston (teams are 4-6). Rodriguez took the loss in each of his last two starts (allowed five runs in both outings) and is win-less in his last 10 outings with four defeats during that stretch (team is 3-7). Rodriguez is 1-3 with a 6.15 ERA in seven appearances (six starts / teams are 1-5) against Toronto. The pick: Toronto has all but been relegated to playing the spoiler role in September but that's just what the Jays did on Labor Day with 14 hits, including four HRs. Most of Boston’s problems have been on the mound in its current rough patch, as it has surrendered at least five runs in eight of the team's last 12 contests. Anyone truly expect Rodriguez to turn that roaund with his and 10 ERs allowed on 17 hits (three HRs) over 11 2/3 innings of his last two starts (7.71 ERA)? Note that Estrada has faced Boston twice in 2017 and while he's left with two no-decisions, he also owns a 1.74 ERA in those two starts. Take the 1 1/2 runs and make Toronto an 8* play. |
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09-04-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -149 | Top | 13-0 | Loss | -149 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The "unbeatable" LA Dodgers suddenly look very 'human,' as Labor Day dawns. The team opens a three-game home series with the Arizona Diamondbacks having lost eight of its last nine games (lone win came 1-0, in Clayton Kershaw's Sep. 1 return from the DL). The Dodgers opened last week by getting swept in Arizona by these same D'backs, who have now solidified their position atop the National League wild-card standings by winning 10 in a row (73-58 D'backs have opened a 6 1/2-game lead on the Rockies). After scoring 21 runs in a three-game sweep last week, Arizona has evened its season series with LA at 8-8, while outscoring the Dodgers 78-66. The pick: I must admit I'm somewhat leery of Hill but this LA team is just too good to continue struggling. After all, while Arizona checks in at 34-35 on the road in 2017, LA is 52-16 at Dodger Stadium, outscoring opponents 5.13-to-3.09 RPG. Make LA a 10* play. |
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09-04-17 | Astros v. Mariners +143 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Hurricane Harvey forced the Astros to move a three-game home series with the Rangers to Tropicana Field, the home of the TB Rays. Houston llsyt the first two games of that series but salavaged the finale, 5-1 on Thursday. The team returned to Houston for a three-game series with the Mets, postponing Friday's first game, then played a Saturday doubleheader and a single game on Sunday. The Astros swept the Mets and will now take a four-game winning streak (as well as the AL's best overall record of 83-53) when they begin a 10-game trek with the first of three games against the Seattle Mariners on Monday. The Astros were just 10-17 from Aug. 1-30, but have now scored 29 runs on 46 hits during their four-game winning streak. Seattle 'stopped the bleeding' by opening its nine-game homestand with a much-needed three-game sweep of the A's this past weekend. On Labor Day morn, the Mariners are 2 1/2 games behind Minnesota for the AL’s second wild card spot. The pitching matchup; Dallas Keuchel (11-3 & 2.91 ERA) takes the mound for Houston and Erasmo Ramirez (5-5 & 4.43 ERA) will get the nod for Seattle. Keuchel struggled in his last start against Texas (at Tropicana Field), allowing six runs on five hits and three walks in six innings of a loss. However, that game followed three straight quality starts. Still, the 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner has not been the same pitcher since returning from the disabled list on July 28, going 2-3 with a 5.35 ERA in seven starts (Astros are 3-4). He is 6-5 with a 2.82 ERA in 13 career games (12 starts / team is 6-6) versus Seattle. Ramirez takes the mound looking for his fifth straight quality start after permitting two runs over six innings in a 4-0 loss at Baltimore on Tuesday. He has given up only six ERs in 24 innings ( ERA) over his last four starts, yet has earned just one victory. Ramirez is 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA in seven career appearances (four starts / teams are 2-2 ) against Houston. The pick: Seattle isn't going to catch Houston in the American League West race (trail by 14 1/2 games) but the Mariners are still desperately trying to stay in the postseason hunt and the team's three-game sweep of the A's on Sunday pulled them within 2 1/2 games of the Minnesota Twins. Keuchel was 9-0 with a 1.67 ERA prior to the break but as noted above, his second half has not measured up. Meanwhile, since being re-acquired by the Mariners in a late-July deal, Ramirez owns a 3.62 ERA in six outings. Each of his past four outings were quality starts and I expect a fifth one here, making Seattle an 8* play. |
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09-04-17 | Cubs v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-12 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The Chicago Cubs returned from the All Star break to go 14-3, catching and passing the Brewers in the NL Central. Chicago did hit a small rough patch right after that but now, even with a Sunday 5-1 loss to the Braves, owns a run of 12 wins in their last 16 games. Chicago opens a four-game series Monday in Pittsburgh with an overall 32-16 since the break and a 3 1/2 game lead in the NL Central over Milwaukee. Pittsburgh made a little 'noise' for itself right after the All Star break by winning seven of eight (reaching 49-48) but since sitting at 58-58 after play on Aug. 11, has gone 7-14 to sit seven games under .500 at 65-72. Chicago's three-game sweep of Pittsburgh last week at Wrigley Field by a combined 27-5, effectively took the Pirates out of consideration for a shot at the postseason. The Pirates have fallen 10 1/2 games back in the NL Central and are 7 1/2 games back of the Rockies, who own the final wild card spot. The pitching matchup: Jake Arrieta (14-8 & 3.36 ERA) has easily been Chicago's pitching star since the break and opens this series, opposed by Pittsburgh's Chad Kuhl (6-10 & 4.54 ERA). Arrieta is 6-1 with a 1.59 ERA since the break, with eight quality starts in nine outings. He takes the mound having won his last four decisions. Arrieta beat the Pirates 4-1 n his last outing (Sep 29), allowing two hits and two walks over six scoreless frames. That leaves him 11-5 with a 2.81 ERA in 20 career starts against the Pirates (teams are 14-6). In contrast to Arrieta, Kuhl has lost two straight starts and three of his last four, failing to get through six innings in any of those four outings. Kuhl lost to the Cubs last time out (opposite Arrieta) and is 0-4 with an 11.07 ERA in six career meetings (team is 2-4). The pick: Kuhl and Arrieta opposed each other last Tuesday in Chicago, with each pitching five shutout innings before Chicago scored three in the six of a 4-1 Cubs win. Hard to ignore Arrieta's 1.59 ERA since the break but also note that Kuhl owns a 3.44 ERA over his past 12 starts. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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09-03-17 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 7 | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The NYY Yankees lost 10-0 at home to the Red Sox on Friday but rebounded with a 5-1 Saturday win. The rubber match of this three-game series is set for Sunday night (on ESPN) and New York needs a win, not only to stay within striking distance of Boston in the AL East (a win and the Yanks will be 3 1/2 back but a loss drops them 5 1/2 back) but the Yankees also need to be very much aware that the Twins are just one game back in the battle for the top wild card spot plus New York is only a modest 2 1/2 games clear of the AL playoff 'cut line.' The Red Sox are heading back to Boston for a nine-game homestand beginning Monday and you know a 5 1/2 game lead would be much sweeter than a 3 1/2 ga.me lead. The pitching matchup: Boston will send ace Chris Sale (15-6 & 2.77 ERA) to the mound in this series finale, as the Yankees counter with Luis Severino (11-6 & 3.14 ERA), who I believe most regard as New York's best starter in 2017. Sale ended a three-start win-less streak with a dominating effort at Toronto this past Tuesday, when he struck out 11 without walking a batter and scattered three hits over seven scoreless innings of a 3-0 Boston win. He may be the AL's Cy Young front-runner, as he leads the majors with 264 strikeouts and is 10 away from matching his career high, set with the Chicago White Sox in 2015. Sale owns a 1.69 career ERA against the Yankees but is a modest 4-3, plus his teams are only 5-6 in his 11 all-time starts against the Yanks. Severino is fourth in the AL with 192 strikeouts and struck out nine over 6 2/3 innings against Cleveland on Monday but could not come away with a win. He owns a 1.10 WHIP and .220 BAA in 2017 but the Yanks are a modest 15-11 in his starts, giving him a moneyline mark of minus-$5 (you read that correctly!). Severino is just 1-4 with a 4.98 ERA over six career starts vs. Boston (team is 2-4) and his worst start of the season came at home against Boston on Aug. 12, when he was ripped for 10 runs -- eight earned -- over 4 1/3 innings. |
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09-03-17 | Blue Jays +119 v. Orioles | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Orioles came into their four-game series with the Blue Jays on a seven-game winning streak. That streak was snapped with Toronto's 11-8 win on Thursday. Baltimore did rebound with a 1-0 (13 inn.) victory on Friday but the Baltimore bats remained quiet again on Saturday, as the Orioles fell 7-2. After averaging 6.03 RPG in August, Baltimore has totaled just three in the first two games of September and are now 2 1/2 games back of the Twins for the AL's final wild card spot. With Saturday's win, the Blue Jays have put themselves in a position to snap a streak of four straight losing series. Toronto has fallen 8 1/2 games back in the wild card race and its playoff hopes have been all but dashed, as they have SIX teams between themselves and the Twins! The pitching matchup: Brett Anderson (2-3 & 6.83 ERA) will be back on the mound for Toronto on Sunday, after making his Toronto debut this past Tuesday. Taking the mound for Baltimore will be the struggling Chris Tillman (1-7 & 7.91 ERA). Anderson began the season with the Chicago Cubs before being waived on August 1, after which he was signed to a minor-league deal by Toronto. He was a tough-luck loser against the Red Sox, allowing just one run on six hits over 5 2/3 innings in losing 3-0 to Boston and Chris Sale. Anderson is seeing Baltimore for the first time since 2010 (while with Oakland), in what has been his lone career appearance against the Orioles. Tillman allowed six runs over 5 1/3 innings to Seattle on Monday (lucky to get a no-decision), although Baltimore won 7-6. That outing means he'll take the mound this afternoon still searching for his first win since May 7 (he's 0- 7 and the team 5-11 in those 16 starts). He had a quality start against the Blue Jays back on May 19, but did not factor in the decision while allowing three runs in six innings. In his career, he's 5-10 with a 5.12 ERA against Toronto, with the Orioles going 11-15. The pick: Sure, the Blue Jays are all but out of wild card consideration and it's difficult to be too confident in Anderson but how can one back Tillman. He as not won since his first start of the year (back on May 7) plus owns a 1.95 WHIP and .332 BAA to go along with his 7.91 ERA. Make Toronto an 8* play. |
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09-02-17 | A's v. Mariners -132 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: Jharel Cotton (7-10 & 5.40 ERA) starts for Oakland and Yovani Gallardo (5-10 & 5.78 ERA) for Seattle. Cotton allowed two runs over 6 2/3 innings in a 3-2 win at Houston back on Aug. 20 and then limited Texas to two runs (one earned) while matching a career high with nine strikeouts en route to an 8-3 victory seven days later. Cotton now looks to win three straight starts for the first time in his major-league. This rookie has faced the Mariners at home twice this season, giving up two runs in a 4-3 win on April 22 before getting tagged for six runs and eight hits, including three HRs, in a 6-3 loss on Aug. 9. The Mariners had hoped that Gallardo would find some of his past 'magic' (he won 72 games for Milwaukee from 2009-13) here in Seattle but that has not been the case. Gallardo's 'ugly' August (0-3 with a 7.46 ERA in five starts / team was 1-4), leaves him with just FIVE win in starts, as21 well as a 1.50 WHIP and .270 BAA to go along with a 5.78 ERA on the season (25 appearances). The pick: OK, one can say that Gallardo can't be trusted. However, while he entered the 2017 season with an 0-5 career record against Oakland, he is 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA in four starts (Seattle is 3-1) against them this year. Seattle's wild-card chances are on the verge of vanishing and the Mariners know that a sweep here against Oakland is a priority. The A's have lost each of the first four contests on their current six-game road trip to fall to 21-45 away from home on the season, while getting outscored 5.27-to-3.86 RPG. Make Seattle a 10* play. |
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09-02-17 | Los Angeles Dodgers - Game #1 -137 v. San Diego Padres - Game #1 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -137 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Clayton Kershaw returned just in time for the Dodgers, as MLB's best pitcher allowed just two hits over six scoreless innings to lead LA to a 1-0 win in his first appearance since July 23 (due to a back injury). Kershaw upped his record to 16-2 and lowered his ERA to 1.95, while the Dodgers are now 20-2 and plus-$1560 in his 2017 starts. LA pitchers combined for 13 strikeouts in halting the team's five-game losing streak. The Padres lost for the fifth time in seven games and enter Saturday's doubleheader with LA at 59-75 on the season, 33 1/2 games back in the NL West. The pitching matchup; Brock Stewart (0-0 & 3.38 ERA) will take the mound for LA in Game 1 of the doubleheader, opposed by San Diego's Clayton Richard (6-13 & 4.96 ERA). Stewart will be making his fourth start of the season (ninth of his career). He didn't fare well in his last outing and was fortunate to walk away with a no-decision as Pittsburgh reached him for five runs on four hits in just two-plus innings (LA won 8-5). Stewart worked two hit-less innings of relief against the Padres on July 1 and has given up one hit in three career innings versus San Diego (no starts). Richard lost to Miami in his last outing, as he allowed five runs on eight hits over seven innings. Richard owns just one win over his last 13 starts (he's 1-6 and San Diego is 4-9). The 33-year-old lefty is 7-6 with a 4.15 ERA in 23 career appearances (21 starts / teams are 13-8) against the Dodgers. The pick: LA was able to win last night despite scoring just one run. The Dodgers will surely need more runs to win here but with Richard owning a 5.79 ERA in four outings vs. LA in 2017, why shouldn't they score? The Dodgers have not had much trouble against the Padres in 2017, as they are 10-3 against San Diego this season, including a 5-1 record at Petco Park. Make LA an 8* play. |
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09-01-17 | Cardinals v. Giants +102 | Top | 11-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The St. Louis Cardinals came to the Bay Area for a four-game series with the sad-sack Giants, hoping to revive their playoff hopes. So far, so good. Thursday’s 5-2 victory keeps the Cards six games behind the first-place Chicago Cubs in the NL Central and they gained a half-game on the idle Colorado Rockies (now five back) for the second wild-card spot. The NL West cellar-dwelling Giants have now lost nine of their last 12 games (are 53-83) and along with being 40 games back of the Dodgers in the division, own MLB's worst moneyline mark (minus-$3549), as well. The pitching matchup: Jack Flaherty will make his MLB debut for the Cards and will square off against Johnny Cueto (6-7 & 4.59 ERA), who will make his first start since mid-July after battling blister issues and a strained flexor tendon. The Cardinals are calling up Flaherty to take the place of Mike Leake, who was traded to Seattle on Wednesday. He has split time between Double- and Triple-A this season, posting a 2.18 ERA with 147 strikeouts and 35 walks in 25 starts covering 148 2/3 innings. Cueto struggled in a minor-league rehab outing for Class-A San Jose last Sunday, allowing eight runs (five earned) and nine hits over 3 2/3 innings. He' seen plenty of St. Louis in his career, going 7-8 with a 3.75 ERA in 22 career starts against the Cards. The pick: This is no easy spot for the 21-year-old Flaherty. He not only makes his major league debut in the heat of a playoff race but he will also be the youngest Cardinals pitcher to start in his first game since Rick Ankiel debuted as a 20-year-old in 1999. He doesn't turn 22 until Oct. 15 and will be the 14th-youngest Cardinal ever to appear in a major league game. His opponent is Cueto, a 10-year veteran who landed in the majors back in 2008 as a 22-year-old. Like all San Francisco pitchers, it's been a disappointing 2017 for Cueto as well but here's a guy who has made 227 career starts and owns 120 wins. This is first start against the Cards in 2017 but he was 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in two outings against them last season. Make San Francisco a 10* play. |
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09-01-17 | Cleveland Indians - Game #2 -162 v. Detroit Tigers - Game #2 | Top | 10-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Indians swept a doubleheader at the New York Yankees on Wednesday and the AL Central leaders (Indians are up 6 1/2 games on the Twins) will try to pull the same trick on Friday, when they open a four-game series at the Detroit Tigers with a split doubleheader. Cleveland did not negatively impacting its pitching rotation on Wednesday and the Indians own the AL's lowest team ERA (3.57), as well as its lowest bullpen ERA (3.01). The big news out of Detroit on Thursday was that the Tigers traded 13-year vet Justin Verlander (former AL MVP and Cy Young winner) to the Houston Astros. Detroit opens this series 58-74 (the AL's third-worst record), a whopping 18 games back of the Indians, who by the way, have crept to within 3 1/2 games of the Houston Astros for the AL's best record (Astros could use Verlander to hold off the Indians). The pitching matchup: It looks like Mike Clevinger (7-5 & 3.72 ERA) and Buck Farmer (3-1 & 6.17 ERA) for Detroit in Friday's nightcap. Clevinger is coming off a strong outing against Kansas City on Saturday, in which he scattered four hits over six scoreless innings and matched a season high with nine strikeouts in a 4-0 win. Clevinger has pitched well for Cleveland in 2017, and enters having allowed one or no earned runs in SIX of his last 11 appearances. Two of those outings came in back-to-back starts against Detroit on July 2 and 8, during which Clevinger yielded a total of one run on five hits in 12 innings (0.75 ERA), picking up victories in each. He's 2-1 with a 3.86 in three career starts vs. Detroit. Farmer is in his second stint with the Tigers this season and earned a win at the Chicago White Sox after being recalled on Saturday, allowing three runs on five hits over 5 2/3 innings of a 6-3 Detroit victory. He's in his fourth season of bouncing back and forth between Detroit and Triple-A. He is 6-4 with a 3.93 ERA in 21 starts for the Triple-A Toledo in 2017 but he owns a 6.17 ERA in five big league starts this season. The pick: It won't inspire confidence in Farmer considering he's seeing Cleveland for the first time this season and is 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA in four career appearances - two starts (both losses) - against this division rival. The Indians are 40-27 on the road in 2017 and if Carrasco "takes care of business" in Game 1, I expect the Indians to earn a second straight doubleheader sweep. Make Cleveland an 8* play. |
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09-01-17 | Braves +1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -125 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: Mike Foltynewicz (10-10 & 4.84 ERA) gets the nod for Atlanta up against the veteran John Lackey (10-10 & 4.98 ERA). Foltynewicz has been a nice surprise for the Braves in 2017 (more later), although he does limp in on a four-start losing streak. Foltynewicz has faced the Cubs just once, back in August of 2015, and it wasn't pretty. He was pounded for seven runs on eight hits in 4 2/3 innings at Chicago. Lackey returned from the break to go 5-0 in his first six starts (Cubs were 6-0) but he has struggled badly in his last two outings, allowing 10 ERs on 15 hits in just 10 innings (that's a 9.00 ERA). Lackey improved to 2-1 in five career starts (his teams are3-2) against the Braves on July 18, when he gave up one run on five hits in five innings at Atlanta. The pick: Lackey's last two outings have both been on the road, so he's hoping a return to Wrigley (he's allowed three runs or less in his last four home starts) will help him turn things around. He may, but I "have a feeling" with Foltynewicz. As noted above, he's on a four-start win-less streak but after allowing 20 runs on 25 hits and nine walks over 11 2/3 innings of three consecutive starts, he showed signs of breaking out of his funk Sunday, when he allowed one run on four hits over five innings in a 3-0 setback against Colorado. Foltynewicz has been "under the radar" all season, with Atlanta going 13-12 in his starts, giving him a plus-$495 moneyline mark which ranks 23rd among all starters. Take Atlanta and the 1 1/2 runs for an 8* play |
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08-31-17 | White Sox v. Twins -153 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Twins lost more games (103) than any team in MLB in 2016 but spent most of the first half of the 2017 season battling for first place in the AL Central. However, when Minnesota lost 4-1 on August 4 to the Texas Rangers, the Twins owned a 51-55 on the season and found themselves looking up in the American League standings at Texas and nine other teams! No one was surprised that Minnesota traded left-handed starter Jaime Garcia and All-Star closer Brandon Kintzler, as the playoffs appeared to be a long shot. As the saying goes, "That was then and this is now!" Minnesota is on a current 18-8 run and owns the second wild-card spot in the American League. In fact, the Twins are just one game behind the NY Yankees for the first wild card after beating Chicago 11-1 on Wednesday and head into Thursday afternoon's game with a chance to sweep the Chicago White Sox, who by the way, own the AL's worst record at 52-79 The pitching matchup: Miguel Gonzalez (7-10 & 4.30 ERA) goes for the White Sox and Bartolo Colon (6-10 & 6.35 ERA) for the Twins. Gonzalez has suddenly pitched much better since coming off the disabled list with AC joint inflammation in his right shoulder. He owns a 2.93 ERA in his eight starts since, including going 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA over his last four starts (team is 3-1). Gonzalez is 2-2 with a 4.25 ERA in five career starts vs. the Twins. Colon was a 'nightmare' for Atlanta (2-8 with an 8.18 ERA) but has been much better with Minnesota (4-2 with a 4.04 ERA). In fact, he's won four of his last five starts, posting a 3.21 ERA in his last five starts. He is 11-8 with a 3.81 ERA in 23 career starts against the White Sox (teams are 12-11). The pick: "My speed is not there anymore, so it makes sense that I don't strike out as many hitters as I used to. I'd much rather get an easy out than throw three strikes," Colon told the Minneapolis Star Tribune after his zero-strikeout game. "If they come, they come. But if they don't, that's fine too." The truth is, Colon is now pitching the way the Braves expected him to pitch when they signed him in the off-season. The Twins took a chance on him after atlanta released him (for good reason) and the twins have to be pleasantly surprised. The White Sox are a dreadful 22-45 away from home, so make the Twins an 8* play. |
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08-30-17 | A's v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 8-10 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The Angels will wrap up a 10-game homestand looking for a three-game sweep of the A's. LA was 2-5 after the Rangers and Astros visited Anaheim but can now The pitching matchup: Kendall Graveman (4-4 & 4.24 ERA) goes for Oakland and Parker Bridwell (7-2 & 2.89 ERA) for LA. Graveman was on the DL for two-plus months and his return on Aug. 2 was a disatser. He allowed seven ERs in juts two innings of an 11-2 loss at San Francisco. A no-decision followed but he's won two of his last three, allowing just five ERs over 20 innings (2.25 ERA). Graveman is 2-2 with a 3.19 ERA in nine career starts against the Angels (team is 5-4). Bridwell just continues to impress. He did suffer his first loss in nine starts this past Friday but allowed only two runs on six hits in seven innings against Houston in a 2-1 loss. He has yielded fewer than three ERs in four consecutive starts and in 10 of his last 12 while issuing more than one walk only once in his last eight outings. The Angels are 11-2 in Bridwell's 13 starts, giving him MLB's second-best moneyline mark (plus-$1232). He will be facing Oakland for the first time. The pick: Graveman has pitched well his last three and Bridwell has been just terrific, since joining the rotation back on May 30. The Under is an 8* play. |
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08-30-17 | Rangers v. Astros -187 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -187 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: Andrew Cashner (7-9 & 3.44 ERA) will take the mound for Texas and Dallas Keuchel (11-2 & 2.58 ERA) for Houston. Cashner is win-less in his last three starts (he's 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA / team is 1-2) but had won four of five prior to his current drought. Cashner has 'laid an egg' against Houston this season, losing all four of his starts. He's 0-5 lifeftime (4.21 ERA) in six starts (teams are 1-5). Keuchel has bounced back nicely from a road loss to the Chicago White Sox on Aug. 8 in which he was battered for eight runs on 10 hits and three walks over four innings. He's now 2-0 (team is 2-1) while allowing just three ERs over 20 2/3 innings (1.31 ERA) in three outings since. Keuchel is just 7-7 with a 3.90 ERA in 20 career starts versus the Texas (team is 10-10). The pick: Keuchel bested Cashner and the Rangers back on Aug. 13, when he gave up one run and six hits in 6 2/3 frames of a 2-1 vctory. Keuchel also scattered three hits over six scoreless innings of a 7-1 win at Texas on June 2. As for Cashner, while he pitched well in losing to Houston on Aug. 13, he's also lost his other three starts against the Astros in 2017, allowing 12 ERs over a modest 16 innings (6.75 ERA). Make Houston a 6* play. |
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08-30-17 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -108 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The Red Sox got swept at home over the weekend by the Orioles but have rebounded to take the first two of a four-game series in Toronto, Monday and Tuesday. 6-5 and 3-0 wins have ended a four-game slide and allowed Boston to open a four-game lead over the NY Yankees atop the AL East. Toronto's playoff hopes are all but gone now, as the Blue Jays have lost three in a row and nine of 11 to fall 10 games under .500 at 61-71, leaving them 7 1/2 games out of the final wild card spot, as well as having to climb over seven teams. The pitching matchup: A pair of 20-game winners from 2016 square off in this one, although the phrase "what a difference a year makes," is surely applicable. Rick Porcello (8-15 & 4.57 ERA) starts for Boston and J.A. Happ (6-10 & 4.10 ERA) for Toronto. Porcello led the major leagues in victories with 22 in 2016, while winning the AL's Cy Young award. Boston was 25-8 in all of his starts, giving him MLB's third-best moneyline mark at plus-$1470. However, he takes the mound tonight looking to avoid his major league-worst 16th loss. He owns just eight wins and Boston is 12-15 in his starts, giving him MLB's sixth-worst moneyline mark (minus-$816). Porcello is 7-7 with a 4.70 ERA in 17 career starts against Toronto (teams are 8-9). Happ opened with a three-start winning streak (permitting one run in each) but he has been pounded in his last two outings. In losses to Minnesota and the Chicago Cubs, he's allowed 10 ERs on 17 hits in just 11 innings (8.18 ERA). Happ is 5-3 with a 3.69 ERA in 13 career starts vs. Boston (teams are 8-5). The pick: Porcello was ripped in his last outing (10 runs on 11 hits, although only four runs were earned) and I just don't trust him. Happ was unbeaten in three starts against Boston last year (he was 2-0 and Toronto 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA) and in one start against them in 2017, allowed two ERs over five innings of a no-decision. Make Toronto a 10* play. |
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08-29-17 | A's v. Angels -153 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Angels were without Mike Trout (stiff neck) but came away with a 3-1 victory over the A's on Monday, which allowed them to climb within one game of Minnesota for the second wild card in the American League. Trout is expected back in the lineup Tuesday and although he's stuck in an 0-for-17 slump, his 24 HRs against Oakland is his highest total against any opponent. The A's had only four hits in the loss, while falling to 21-42 away from home on the season. Oakland's 58-73 record leaves them better than only the 57-73 Tigers and 52-77 White Sox in the American League. The pitching matchup: Chris Smith (0-3 & 5.56 ERA) steps to the mound for Oakland and Troy Scribner (2-1 & 4.00 ERA) for LA. Smith has made eight appearances (seven starts) in 2017 and remains in search of his first win of the season. He lost 7-3 in Baltimore on Aug. 21, allowing five runs (four earned) on six hits over 4 1/3 innings in his shortest start of the year. Smith has made two career relief appearances against the Angels, allowing two hits with four walks and five strikeouts in 3 1/3 scoreless innings. Scribner will be making his fourth consecutive start of 2017, after beginning his major-league career with a pair of relief outings. He suffered his first loss on Thursday (3-0), when he gave up three runs on three hits in five innings against Texas. Scribner escaped with a no-decision in his first career turn versus Oakland on Aug. 4 after yielding five runs but just two earned on two hits and four walks over four innings (Angels won 8-6). The pick: The A's are (as noted above) a poor road team and Smith finds himself starting in 2017, after entering this season having come out of the bullpen in all of his previous 63 major-league-appearances. Scribner has been solid in his last two starts (3.60 ERA) and another similar effort should be more than enough for the Angels to pick up a much-needed win. If LA is to stay in the wild card race, the Angels will have to beat teams like Oakland on their home field. Make the Angels a 10* play. |
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08-29-17 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Arizona D'backs host the LA Dodgers in a three-game series beginning tonight and although Arizona boasts the NL's third-best overall record at 73-58 (including an excellent 42-23 home mark), the Dodgers are so far ahead of them in the NL West (91-39, giving them a 19-game lead!), that this is not much of a "showdown series." However, while the Dodgers have pretty much 'lapped' all MLB teams in 2017, the D'backs could sure use a series win, as they are fighting to hold on to their playoff position. Arizona currently owns the NL's No. 1 wild card spot, two games clear of the Rockies. The D'backs should also be aware that the Brewers are three games back of the Rockies, meaning that the D'backs are five games inside the NL playoff 'cut line.' That's a nice lead with 31 games left to play but surely not one which is completely 'safe.' The pitching matchup: Rich Hill (9-5 & 3.32 ERA) takes the mound for LA and Zack Godley (5-7 & 3.15 ERA) for Arizona. Hill entered his last start 5-0 over his previous eight (Dodgers were 7-1) and took a perfect game into the ninth inning at Pittsburgh this past Wednesday. An error ruined his perfect game in the 9th and then a walk-off HR ended the no-hitter in the 10th! Hill is just 1-4 with a 4.46 ERA against the D'backs in eight career starts (teams are 2-6) but he did toss seven innings of one-run ball against them on July 6 (he got a no-decision in a 5-4 LA win). Godley lost his third straight start by giving up three runs over five innings at the New York Mets on Wednesday (D'backs lost 4-2), an outing which followed a 10-strikeout performance in a 10-3 loss at Minnesota The pick: Note that Godley has allowed three ERs or less in five of his last six starts, with the under going 4-0-1 in those five sold efforts. Also, he owns a pair of solid starts against the Dodgers this season, giving up one run in 5 2/3 innings on July 5 and tossing 6 2/3 innings of three-run ball on Aug. 8. As for Hill, his recent numbers speak loud and clear. He's made nine starts since July 1, allowing 14 ERs on 37 hits over 56 innings, giving him a 2.25 ERA plus a 72-11 KW ratio. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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08-29-17 | Mets v. Reds -157 | Top | 4-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show |
The Mets have lost 11 of their last 15 and with a 57-73 record on the season, are just "playing out the string." However, as they take the field tonight in the opener of a three-game series with the Reds, they may just find some solace (and hope) in the fact that they have won 19 of their last 21 games against Cincinnati, including 14 straight going back to September 2014. Like the Mets, the NL Central cellar-dwelling Reds (55-76) are also just counting the days until October 1, MLB's final regular season day. |
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08-28-17 | Braves v. Phillies -155 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Philadelphia Philles may own MLB's worst record (48-81) but Rhys Hoskins has gotten the attention of the baseball world in the opening month of his major league career. Hoskins became the fastest player to reach 10 HRs in baseball’s modern era on Saturday, when he reached double digits in the 17th game of his career. He followed with his 11th career HR in Sunday’s 6-3 victory over the Cubs, giving him five consecutive games with a round-tripper. The Phillies come off taking two of three against the Cubs and now continue their homestand with a three-game series against the Braves. Atlanta has lost 12 of 18 contests, after the Rockies completed a three-game sweep of the Braves with Sunday's 3-0 shutout in Atlanta. The Braves returned from the All Star break to sweep the Arizona D'backs in a three-game home series to reach 45-45 but have since fallen 14-games under .500 (57-71) by dropping 26 of their last 38 games. The pitching matchup: Rookie Lucas Sims (2-3 & 4.13 ERA) goes for Atlanta to open the series tonight, opposed by Philly's Aaron Nola (9-9 & 3.58 ERA). Sims lost his first three major-league starts (5.71 ERA) but has given up only two runs on eight hits across 11 innings (1.64 ERA) to defeat Colorado and Seattle. This marks his first start against the Phillies. Nola is hoping to rebound from two consecutive poor starts, allowing 12 ERs on 16 hits and five walks over 11 1/3 innings (9.53 ERA) while losing to San Francisco and Miami. However, let's not forget that even after those two brutal outings, his ERA is a respectable 3.58 on the season. That's because prior to his back-to-back defeats, he produced a 10-start stretch (from June 22 through August 12) in which he posted a 1.71 ERA while going 6-2 (Phils were 7-3). Nola beat the Braves in his only appearance against them this season (3-1 back on June 6), and is 4-1 with a 2.08 ERA in six career starts against Atlanta (team is 4-2). The pick: Sure, the Phillies own MLB's worst record but as noted above, the Braves 'limp into' this series playing very poorly the last month-and-a-half. What's more, the Phillies have dominated their NL East rival in 2017, beating the Braves 11 times in 13 games and in all seven meetings at Philadelphia. Make the Phillies an 8* play. |
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08-28-17 | Mariners v. Orioles UNDER 11 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Seattle Mariners open a three-game series on the road against the Baltimore Orioles on Monday. The Mariners are 66-65 and the Orioles 65-65 plus each team owns an identical minus-23 run differential. The duo is among a very crowded race that sees seven teams within three-games of the AL's final wild card spot (Seattle is 1 1/2 games back and Baltimore two back of the Twins, who currently own that No. 2 spot). Baltimore welcomes Seattle to town after completing a three-game sweep in Boston over the weekend, outscoring the AL East-leading Red Sox 25-4 in the process. Meanwhile, Seattle committed five errors in one inning during Sunday's 10-1 loss to the NY Yankees, while losing the rubber match of that three-game series. Baltimore owns a four-game winning streak overall but has fared poorly against Seattle in recent meeting, losing eight of the last 10. The pitching matchup :Marco Gonzales (0-1 & 7.40 ERA) will get the nod for Seattle and Chris Tillman (1-7 & 7.75 ERA) for Baltimore. Gonzales was acquired from the Cardinals on July 21 and failed to make it through five innings for the fifth time in as many starts this past Tuesday at Atlanta. He took the 4-0 loss, allowing two runs on six hits and three walks while throwing 99 pitches over 4 2/3 innings. He's made five starts in 2017 (four with Seattle and one with St. Louis / teams are 2-3) in which opponents are batting .352 against him. Gonzales settled for a no-decision versus the Orioles on August 16, when he permitted four runs over 4 1/3 innings, although Seattle won 7-6. Tillman did not factor in the decision in his return to the rotation on August 20 versus the LA Angels. He allowed four runs and issued a career high-tying six walks across 5 1/3 innings in a game the Angels won 5-4. Tillman won 56 games for Baltimore the previous four seasons, winning 16 times in both 2013 and 2016. However, it's been a 'lost season' for the 2013 All Star, who owns a 1.99 WHIP and .342 opponents BA to go along with his 7.75 ERA. The pick: Looking at these two starting pitchers, an "over" would be the knee-jerk response. However, note that Tillman is an impressive 7-1 with a 3.30 ERA in 11 career games (10 starts / team is 8-2) versus Seattle. Let's take a "leap of faith" and make the Under a 10* play. |
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08-27-17 | New York Mets - Game #2 v. Washington Nationals - Game #2 OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 105 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Nationals will host the NY Mets in a Sunday doubleheader, with the second game being the Sunday night ESPN contest. The 77-50 Nats are cruising to a NL East crown (lead the division by 12 1/2 games), despite a long injury list. The 56-72 Mets are 21 1/2 games back of the Nats and have lost 10 of their 14 meetings with Washington this season.
The pitching matchup: Seth Lugo (5-3 & 4.85 ERA) will start tonight's second game for New York, opposed by Washington's Tanner Roark (10-8 & 4.64 ERA). Lugo will be making his first appearance since August 11 and will attempt trying to snap a run of three consecutive poor starts. He failed to complete six innings in any of those three outings (he's 0-1 and the Mets 1-2), allowing 13 ERs over just 16 innings (7.31 ERA). He last saw Washington back on July 4 and that did not go well, as Lugo gave up six runs on 10 hits over five innings in a loss. That leaves him 1-2 with a 4.82 ERA in three career starts vs. Washington. Roark comes in pitching fairly well, having allowed more than three ERs in just one of his last eight starts (he's 4-3 and Washington 4-4). Roark is making his second start of the season against the Mets and allowed three runs on seven hits and three walks in 6 2/3 innings against the division rivals without factoring in the decision back on April 21. He's 6-2 with a 2.35 ERA in 10 career starts vs. the Mets (team is 7-3). |
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08-27-17 | Twins v. Blue Jays -130 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -130 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The Blue Jays led the Twins 8-2 in Saturday's game but needed to hold on for a 10-9 win. Toronto is 61-68 on the season and while the Blue Jays are five games back of the final wild card spot in the AL, with SIX teams to 'climb over,' the team's playoff hopes are not exactly realistic. Holding on to that No. 2 wild card spot is the Minnesota Twins, who after losing for the seventh time in their last 21 games, sit at 66-63, a half-game up on the Angels and Mariners. The pitching matchup: Kyle Gibson (7-10 & 5.76 ERA) gets the nod for Minnesota and Joe Biagini (3-8 & 5.11 ERA). Gibson had a season-high eight Ks in his last outing, a 4-1 victory over the White Sox in Chicago on Tuesday. However, he had gone 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA in his previous three starts (Twins were 1-2). Gibson is 1-1 with a 4.94 ERA in four career starts against Toronto (teams are 1-2). Biagini is being recalled from Triple-A to make his first start since July 2. He pitched strictly out of the bullpen after that ugly July 2 start and then was sent to the minors in early August. However, he returns after making four starts with Buffalo, going 1-1 with a 3.12 ERA in 17 1/3 innings. Biagini has not performed well for Toronto in 2017, going 2-7 with a 5.60 ERA in 11 starts with the Blue Jays this season (jays are 4-7) and in his last ML start, allowed seven runs on 10 hits in 5 1/3 innings of a 15-1 loss to Boston on July 2. Biagini has not made a career start against teh Twins but allowed one run and three hits over two innings in a pair of relief appearances versus Minnesota last season. The pick: It's hard to make a strong case for Toronto but the same can be said about Minnesota's Gibson. The 'kicker' is that when the Twins won 6-1 Friday night in Toronto, it ended a seven-game losing streak at Rogers Centre for Minnesota. The rubber match of the series goes this afternoon but looking at the record book we find the Twins have won just one series at Rogers Centre over the past 10 years (back in 2014 when they rook two out of three from the Blue Jays on June 9-11). Make Toronto a 10* play. |
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08-26-17 | Brewers v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Milwaukee Brewers are in LA for a three-game series with the Dodgers and were held to one hit in Friday’s 3-1 loss. However, they remained three games behind the first-place Chicago Cubs in the NL Central, as the Cubs lost 7-1 in Philadelphia to the ML-worst Phillies (47-70). Kenta Maeda tossed six strong innings and Yasiel Puig hit his 23rd homer Friday as the Dodgers improved to 56-11 since June 7 and 91-36, overall. The pitching matchup: Milwaukee ace Zach Davies (14-7 & 4.09 ERA) squares off against LA's Ross Stripling (3-4 & 3.41 ERA), who will be making his first start of 2017, after 35 relief appearances. Davies recorded his sixth quality start in his past seven outings last Monday, allowing two runs over six innings in a 2-0 loss to San Francisco. He owns a 7-3 record and 2.65 ERA in his last 11 outings and his plus-$755 moneyline mark (16-10 in team starts) ranks 8th-best among all starters. Davies is 1-1 with a 3.63 ERA in three career starts against Los Angeles (team is ), including six scoreless innings in a 3-0 victory back on June 4. Stripling will move into the rotation to start in place of Alex Wood, who landed on the 10-day disabled list last Tuesday with a left shoulder injury. Stripling is making his first start for the Dodgers this season after going back and forth between the rotation and bullpen in 2016, finishing 5-9 with a 3.96 ERA in 22 games (14 starts). He owns a 6-5 record and 3.80 ERA in 28 career games (eight starts) at Dodger Stadium. The pick: Davies has started 13 games at home and 13 on the road here in 2017. His home ERA is 5.97 and road WHIP is 1.63, which is in stark contrast to his 2.33 road ERA and 1.16 road WHIP! Stripling is expected to pitch three or four innings and throw about 40-50 pitches, with the Dodgers planning to have a "bullpen game." Josh Ravin, Edward Paredes and Tony Cingrani are all expected to back up Stripling. Let's not forget that the Dodgers own MLB's best bullpen ERA at 2.97 or that Milwaukee has scored a total of just seven runs over its last four contests. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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08-26-17 | Twins v. Blue Jays -135 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Twins opened their eight-game week (played a doubleheader Monday in Chicago) by losing three of five to the AL-worst White Sox but began their three-game weekend series in Toronto with a 6-1 win over the Blue Jays. Minnesota's 14 wins since August 6 are the most in the majors over that span and the 66-62 Twins maintained their one-half game lead in the AL wild-card chase over the 66-63 Mariners with last night's victory. The Blue Jays' loss ended a seven-game home winning streak over the Twins (dated back to June 11, 2014,) to fall to 60-68. It was Toronto's sixth loss in its last seven outings and while the Blue Jays are only six games back of Minnesota, there are a whopping SIX teams between Toronto and Minnesota! |
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08-25-17 | Rays v. Cardinals -156 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -156 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: This weekend's lone IL series features a pair of playoff contenders, the 63-66 Tampa Bay Rays visiting the 64-63 St. Louis Cardinals for a three-game series beginning Friday night. This marks the first contest of a nine-game road trip for the Rays, who are three games back of the AL's second wild card spot but it's a very crowded field. Meanwhile, the Cards are five games out in the NL wild card race but also just 4 1/2 games back of the first-place Cubs in the NL Central. By comparison, the Rays are 11 games back of the Red Sox in the AL East. The pitching matchup: Jake Odorizzi (6-7 & 4.74 ERA) takes the mound for the Rays and Michael Wacha (9-6 & 4.08 ERA) for the Cardinals. Odorizzi looks to rebound after getting pounded for seven runs on eight hits and five walks over 3 2/3 innings against Seattle on Saturday in a 7-6 loss. That marked the third time in his last four starts that he hasn't completed five innings, going 0-3 with a 6.63 ERA in that stretch (Rays are 0-4). Odorizzi, who is 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA in two starts against St. Louis and has gone 6-3 with a 3.17 mark in interleague play. Wacha has also completed more than five innings just once in his last four starts (Cards are 1-3) and allowed five runs over four innings last Saturday in a 6-4 loss at Pittsburgh. Wacha had been pitching pretty well prior to his last four starts, as the Cards had gone 6-2 in his previous eight outings. Wacha permitted four runs in five innings of his only start against Tampa Bay(back in in 2014 / 0-1 & 7.20 ERA) and is 5-5 with a 3.49 ERA in 14 interleague games. The pick: The Rays could very well fall out of wild card contention with a poor road trip and I don't much like their chances in this one. Wacha has struggled on the road with a 5.57 ERA but here in St. Louis, it's 2.99. Make St. Louis an 8* play. |
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08-25-17 | Padres v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The Miami Marlins fell seven games below .500 (53-60) after dropping three of four at Washington from Aug. 7-10. However, a surprising sweep of Colorado jump-started a 10-3 run over their last three contests. Miami followed up its three-game sweep of the Rockies by taking seven of 10 from a trio of the NL's worst teams, the Giants, Mets and Phillies. Thursday's wild 9-8 victory over the Phillies (Miami hit three of its four HRs after falling behind 8-3 in the fourth inning) kept them 5 1/2 games behind the Rockies for the NL's second wild card spot). The Marlins now face another sub-.500 team in the 57-70 Padres, who took the rubber match of their three-game series with St. Louis on Thursday, allowing Miami to move within one-half game of one of the two teams (the Cardinals) it has to leapfrog in order to make a run at Colorado. |
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08-24-17 | Rangers v. Angels -119 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -119 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Angels will host the Texas Rangers Thursday night in the finale of a four-game series between the two AL wild card contenders. The Rangers won 7-5 (10-innings) on Wednesday, giving them wins in two of the first three in this series, as well as seven wins over their last 10, overall. At 63-63, Texas sits two games out of the final AL wild card spot, held by the Twins. Meanwhile, the 65-62 Angels sit one-half game back of the Twins, in a virtual tie with the 64-61 Royals. This AL wild card chase will likely go down to the final weekend of the season. The pitching matchup: Martin Perez (8-10 & 5.26 ERA) starts for Texas and Troy Scribner (2-0 & 3.46) for LA. Perez received ample support Saturday against the Chicago White Sox (Rangers won 17-7) and won his third straight start despite allowing six runs over six innings. He owns a 6.86 ERA in his last seven starts (since July 19) but is somehow 3-4. Perez is 2-4 with a 3.53 ERA in 10 career games (nine starts / Rangers are 4-5) against Los Angeles, including 1-3 with a 5.47 ERA in four outings at Angel Stadium. Scribner will be recalled from Triple-A to start in place of JC Ramirez, who is out indefinitely with a right elbow strain. The 26-year-old rookie made his second career start on Aug. 9 against Baltimore, allowing one run with no walks over five innings of a 5-1 victory. Scribner owns an 11-4 record and 4.35 ERA in 20 games (19 starts) for Salt Lake this season. The pick: Perez may own three straight wins but in a team-leading 24 starts, he owns a 1.57 WHIP and .306 BAA to go along with his bloated 5.26 ERA in 2017. Mike Trout and Co. should have few problems with this lefty. Make LA an 8* play. |
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08-24-17 | Twins v. White Sox UNDER 10 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
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