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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-08-21 | Canisius v. Northern Kentucky -6.5 | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Northern Kentucky minus the points over Canisius at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Northern Kentucky has just one win in six games this season but that's largely due to a sneaky-tough schedule. Sure, considering they've been favored in four of their first six contests, the Norse would have liked to have earned more than a single victory. That should only fuel their fire as they host a beatable Canisius squad that may or may not be without its super sixth-man Malek Green after he missed Sunday's game due to a sore ankle. The Golden Griffins are also off to a disappointing start. Their only two victories this season have come against Fredonia State and Coppin State, with the latter victory coming by just a single point as 10-point favorites. Canisius' game is largely built on spotting up from three and knocking those shots down. Unfortunately they just haven't been falling so far this season (31.6% from three-point range) and they don't figure to right the ship here with Northern Kentucky holding the opposition to just 32.5% three-point shooting on the season. This looks like an excellent 'get right' spot for the Norse offense against a Canisius defense that has allowed opponents to shoot better than 48% from the field this season. Take Northern Kentucky (8*). |
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12-07-21 | Celtics v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 102-117 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Boston at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. It's been an eventful road trip for the Celtics already as they've been involved in a pair of very high-scoring games against the Jazz and Blazers, managing to earn a 1-1 split thanks to a 145-point explosion last time out in Portland. Here, I like the Lakers to get back on track following a tough loss to the Clippers and gain an ounce of revenge in the process after suffering a lopsided loss in Boston earlier this season. Note that Los Angeles has managed to follow each of its last three losses with wins and this is certainly a key spot before playing five of its next six games on the road. The Lakers are actually in a double-revenge spot here after dropping the last meeting last season as well by a 121-113 score here at home. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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12-07-21 | Nets v. Mavs +2.5 | 102-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Mavs will be looking to salvage the finale of their three-game homestand on Tuesday after suffering losses at the hands of the Grizzlies and Pelicans. The hope is that they'll have both Kristaps Porzingis and Luka Doncic back for this game but it at the very least looks like Porzingis will be back in the lineup. I like the fact that we're catching points with the Mavs here noting that the Nets have managed to cover the spread just once in their last nine games. This is a big spot for the Mavs as they look to stop the bleeding before heading out on the road for three in a row. While the Nets do check in playing well offensively, it has come at the expense of their defense it seems as they've allowed 104 points or more in seven straight contests. Take Dallas (8*). |
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12-06-21 | Nuggets v. Bulls OVER 216 | Top | 97-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Nuggets enter this game riding a seven-game 'over' streak and I look for that trend to continue on Monday. Two of Denver's three highest scoring outputs of the season have come in their last two games as they put up 120 points in Miami and 113 in New York. Now it heads to Chicago to face a Bulls squad that has allowed two of its three highest point totals of the season over its last three games. On the flip side of that, two of the Bulls three highest scoring performances of the campaign have also come in their last three games. Note that this will be the second meeting between these two teams this season with the first producing 222 points back on November 19th in Denver. The last time they met here in Chicago they combined to score 230 points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-06-21 | Mercer v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 139.5 | 74-69 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Mercer and Coastal Carolina at 7 pm et on Monday. Mercer enters this game off three consecutive wins, scoring 88, 73 and 83 points in the process but I expect the Bears to have some difficulty scoring against a stout Coastal Carolina zone defense on Monday night. The Chanticleers have held their last two opponents to 41-for-124 shooting and have yet to allow an opponent shoot better than 43.7% from the floor this season. Mercer isn't a team that plays exceptionally fast. For the Bears to stay competitive in this game they'll need to get back defensively in transition and force Coastal Carolina to operate its offense in the halfcourt. The Chanticleers are coming off two of their three highest-scoring performances of the season over their last two games. Those efforts came in a game against South Carolina where the Gamecocks essentially folded the tent in the second half and a contest against Winthrop that saw a closing total north of 150 points. Take the under (8*). |
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12-05-21 | Jazz v. Cavs OVER 211 | 109-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Cleveland at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. With the Jazz coming off their three highest scoring outputs of the season and Cleveland having posted two of its season-high scoring totals of the season in its last three games, I believe this total will prove too low on Sunday afternoon. The 'over' has cashed in seven of Utah's last eight games. While its offense has certainly played a big role in that, it's also worth noting that the Jazz defense has struggled as they've allowed over 100 points in seven of those eight contests. Cleveland, meanwhile, has scored 105 points or more in six straight games. Off four consecutive victories and in search of revenge for a pair of blowout losses again Utah last season, I look for a strong performance from the Cavs here. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 26-13 in the Cavs last 39 home games where the total was set between 210 and 219.5 points, with an average total of 220.0 points scored in that situation. Take the over (10*). |
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12-05-21 | Western Illinois v. Central Michigan +5.5 | 97-70 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Central Michigan plus the points over Western Illinois at 2 pm et on Sunday. This situation sets up well for the 1-6 Chippewas as they finally get a chance to catch their breath after facing a ridiculously tough schedule to open the campaign. The Chips shot a miserable 31% from the field in a 33-point rout at the hands of Xavier on December 1st. Their schedule has included games against Missouri, Depaul, Gonzaga, Kentucky and aforementioned Xavier. They've been favored in just one game so far this season and that was their lone victory against Eastern Illinois. Western Illinois is off to a 7-2 start and shot a blistering 52% from the field in a 17-point rout of Tennessee-Martin yesterday. Keep in mind, it was favored by double-digits in that contest. Off three straight victories and in this back-to-back spot, I think Western Illinois would simply be happy to earn a victory here - winning by margin should prove difficult. Note that CMU won by six, pushing the closing line of -6 in a road win over Western Illinois last season. We're talking about a considerable pointspread swing here due to the Chips lack of returning talent. I believe that swing will prove too steep. Take Central Michigan (8*). |
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12-04-21 | Iowa State v. Creighton -4.5 | Top | 64-58 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
CBB Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Creighton minus the points over Iowa State at 9 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for Creighton as it hosts undefeated Iowa State on Saturday night. We actually won with the Cyclones in their outright upset win over Xavier in last week's NIT Tip-off Tournament in Brooklyn. They're off to an impressive 7-0 start that also includes a victory over a team that entered the season with National Title aspirations in Memphis. Still, I expect the Blue Jays to prove to be too much for the Cyclones on this night. Creighton has just one loss on the season and while it checks in with a poor 3-5 ATS record it was asked to lay more points than it is here tonight in four of those five previous ATS defeats. The Blue Jays do come in with some positive momentum after laying waste to a quality North Dakota State team last time out, winning by 25 points as eight-point favorites. While Creighton is known for its offense, it has put on a defensive clinic here at home this season, holding opponents to just 60.2 points per game on 35.3% shooting. Here, we'll note that Creighton is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games after giving up 60 or less points, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 20.5 points. Take Creighton (10*). |
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12-04-21 | Spurs v. Warriors OVER 217 | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Golden State at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. This will mark the first meeting between these two teams this season after all three matchups last season stayed 'under' the total. Keep in mind, the lone matchup last season here in San Francisco totaled 220 points which would be enough to eclipse tonight's total. The Warriors cruised to a blowout win over the Devin Booker-less Suns last night. We won with Golden State in that game. Here, the Warriors host a Spurs squad riding a three-game winning streak and having put up two of its five highest scoring outputs of the season in their last two games. The Spurs know they're not going to win a defensive slugfest here - they need to outgun the Warriors. That's because Golden State averages just shy of 117 points per game at home this season. Since the start of November the Warriors have been extremely consistent in terms of scoring production here at home, posting totals of 114, 126, 120, 127, 123, 119, 119, 116, 118 and 118 points. I don't think the Spurs have the defense to knock them off course here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-04-21 | Memphis -1 v. Ole Miss | 63-67 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Ole Miss at 12 noon et on Saturday. We'll take a flyer on Penny Hardaway's Memphis Tigers as they try to bounce back from consecutive losses on Saturday. That mini-slump started with a stunning blowout loss against upstart Iowa State in the Championship Game of the NIT Tip-off Tournament in Brooklyn last week. The Tigers followed that up with a narrow three-point setback at Georgia. Here, they'll be looking to come away with something positive from this two-game SEC road trip. Ole Miss, on the other hand, is 'fat and happy' off consecutive double-digit wins albeit against vastly inferior opponents. In fact, this is the first time the Rebels will be in an underdog role this season so there is some reason to pump the brakes on their solid 5-2 record. Take Memphis (7*). |
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12-03-21 | Fairfield v. Canisius OVER 141.5 | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Fairfield and Canisius at 7 pm et on Friday. We've made just one play involving either of these teams this season and it was on the 'under' in Fairfield's 83-78 win over Stony Brook last week. In case you were wondering, we weren't close on that play as the final score eclipsed the total by 17 points. I won't make the same mistake again here. Fairfield's offense wasn't good last season but with virtually the entire squad returning there was plenty of potential entering the 2021-22 campaign. So far so good, as the Stags have scored 70+ points in five of six games and check in shooting 47.5% from the field and 37.6% from three-point range. They don't figure to face much resistance against Canisius as the Golden Griffins have allowed the opposition to shoot just shy of 47% from the field and may face a bit of a system shock here as the Stags average seven more three-point attempts than what they've faced so far this season. The fact that Canisius managed to score 75 points despite shooting sub 38% from the field against Cornell last time out is telling. The Griffins are playing at a fast pace, hoisting up a whopping 65 field goal attempts per game including 32 from three-point range. There's reason to believe they can go off offensively in this one against a Fairfield squad that has allowed anyone with a pulse to shoot 50% or better this season. This has the makings of a big game for super sixth-man Malek Green of Canisius. He's still working his way back to 100% health after foot surgery last season. He's averaging 16.6 points per game in just over 24 minutes per game this season and with the Griffins having not played since Sunday should see plenty of action in this one. Key cog Armon Harried shot a miserable 1-for-10 from the field against Cornell but should bounce back here. He's just one game removed from a 22-point effort against Coppin State. Virtually all trends point to an 'under' result here but I'm confident enough that both teams have made enough progression offensively that we could be in for a track meet on Friday night. With both projected to finish in the bottom half of the MAAC standings they can certainly use all the wins they can get - make no mistake, this is an important conference opener for both teams. I expect both to come in with an aggressive mentality, knowing they'll likely need to put up 70+ points to prevail. While the last meeting between these teams totaled only 119 points, it featured just seven made three-pointers. The two teams are combining to average 20 made threes per game this season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-02-21 | Valparaiso v. Drake -12.5 | 66-73 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Drake minus the points over Valparaiso at 9 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Drake Bulldogs on Thursday night as they look to put a three-game losing streak behind them and lay waste to an overmatched Valpo squad. We actually won with Valpo last week as it staged an outright upset of Jacksonville State. Since then, the Beacons have gone 2-1 but will be taking a big step up in class in their Missouri Valley Conference opener against Drake on Thursday. The Bulldogs, along with Loyola-Chicago, can be considered the class of the MVC. It's a competitive conference to be sure, as we noted in last night's play on Evansville over Southern Illinois. However, it is a little top-heavy. Yes, the Bulldogs enter this game on a three-game slide, but those three losses came against very capable opponents in Belmont, Alabama and North Texas and all three games were close. Prior to that stretch, Drake had opened the season with three straight wins including a 99-50 dismantling of South Dakota. While I do think we've seen the best we're going to get from Valpo (in that comeback win over Jacksonville State), I don't believe the same can be said for Drake. This is certainly a game that it has had circled since that loss to North Texas last weekend and I look for the Bulldogs to roll, noting that they've gone 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite, outscoring opponents by a whopping average margin of 23.9 points. Meanwhile, Valpo is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 80+ points in its last contest, as is the case here. Take Drake (10*). |
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12-02-21 | Bulls v. Knicks +2 | Top | 119-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Knicks have been extremely uneven this season. They check into Thursday's showdown against the division-rival Bulls sporting an 11-10 overall record. They have managed to split a pair of meetings with the Bulls, both in Chicago, with the lone loss coming by a single point. I simply feel that the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored in this one. Chicago couldn't miss in Tuesday's blowout home win over the Hornets. The Bulls shot just shy of 60% from the field in that game. I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here. The Knicks allowed the Nets to shoot better than 48% two nights ago - only the third time this season they've yielded north of 48% shooting. The last two times they did so, they held their next opponent to just 38.5% and 35.5% shooting, going 2-0 SU and ATS in those two contests. Here, we'll note that the Knicks are an incredible 30-9 ATS in their last 39 games with a pointspread between +3 and -3, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.2 points. They're also 37-19 ATS in their last 56 games when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent. While New York is likely to be without R.J. Barrett in this one that's perhaps not as big of a concern as it's being made out to be as Barrett has struggled, topping out at 17 points in his last 12 games after scoring 20 points or more in his previous five contests. Take New York (10*). |
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12-01-21 | Rockets v. Thunder -3 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. It's never easy to back a team after it just got hammered by the same opponent two nights earlier, but that's what we're going to do with the Thunder on Wednesday. Houston rolled to a 102-89 win over Oklahoma City on Monday - marking its third straight victory. Keep in mind, all three of those wins came at home. The Rockets check in 0-11 on the road, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 12.5 points this season. The Thunder enter this contest riding a six-game losing streak but Monday's blowout loss was actually their first ATS loss in their last seven games. After shooting a woeful 35.6% from the field on Monday, I look for a strong bounce-back performance here as the schedule only gets tougher with a three-game road trip up next. Note that the Rockets are just 12-23 ATS the last 35 times they've come off an ATS victory, outscored by 8.5 points on average in that situation. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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12-01-21 | South Carolina v. Coastal Carolina +6.5 | Top | 56-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
CBB Game of the Week. My selection is on Coastal Carolina plus the points over South Carolina at 7 pm et on Wednesday. While the Coastal Carolina football program has been making most of the noise going back to last season, the basketball team can play as well. The Chanticleers check in just 2-2 on the season but I expect them to give South Carolina a run on Wednesday night. The Gamecocks have reeled off four straight wins, going 3-1 ATS in the process. It's worth noting though that they're turning the ball over 17 times a game compared to Coastal Carolina's average of only 10. Riding a winning streak and with a big showdown against Georgetown on deck, it would be easy for the relatively inexperienced to overlook the Chanticleers here. Note that South Carolina has been outscored by an average margin of 3.3 points in its last 15 games when coming off a win and has also been outscored by 3.0 points on average in its last 21 lined road contests. Take Coastal Carolina (10*). |
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11-29-21 | Hornets +5.5 v. Bulls | 119-133 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. With the Hornets coming off an embarrassing loss in Houston two nights ago the majority of bettors will undoubtedly be looking to back the Bulls at home on Monday night. After all, Chicago has taken three straight meetings in this series, both SU and ATS. It is worth noting, however, that the last time the Bulls hosted the Hornets they closed as just 1.5-point favorites. I believe we're getting considerable value with Charlotte here, noting that despite Saturday's upset loss still checks in a solid 7-2-1 ATS over its last 10 games. The Bulls, meanwhile, have dropped the cash in three of their last four contests and have only managed to split their last 14 games from an ATS perspective. It's certainly worth noting that the Hornets are averaging an impressive 114.2 points per game against opponents that allow an average of just 107.0 ppg this season. While their defensive play has left a lot to be desired the Bulls aren't particularly imposing from an offensive standpoint, averaging just 106.5 ppg and outscoring the opposition by only 3.3 points on average at the United Center this season. Take Charlotte (8*). |
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11-27-21 | Pelicans v. Jazz -12.5 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over New Orleans at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. I think a lot of bettors are spooked when it comes to the Jazz and can you really blame them after Utah dropped a stunning 98-97 decision against these same Pelicans on Friday as a 13.5-point favorite. I'm not overly concerned about the Jazz's uneven play recently and fully expect them to bounce back with a strong performance on Saturday night. Last night's game really amounted to a 'perfect storm' of sorts for the Jazz. Rudy Gobert scored only nine points. Donovan Mitchell shot 6-of-21 from the field. Jordan Clarkson - usually a steady contributor off the bench - shot 3-of-12 and managed only seven points. There was really nothing particularly special about New Orleans' performance. It scored right around its season average on the road. While the Pelicans have now won consecutive games, keep in mind, this is a team that has lost games by 16 points in Chicago, 13 points in Sacramento, 41 points in Golden State, 16 points in Dallas, 15 points in Miami, 17 points in Indiana...you get the picture. Meanwhile, half of Utah's six home victories this season have come by at least 16 points. The Jazz check in a solid 65-42 ATS when playing at home off an upset loss as a home favorite. Take Utah (10*). |
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11-26-21 | Oklahoma State v. Oral Roberts OVER 148 | Top | 78-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma State and Oral Roberts at 4 pm et on Friday. You might be hard-pressed to find a worse defensive team than Oral Roberts at this given moment in time. In two games against Division-I opponents, it ranks 343rd in the country in opponents floor percentage. Outside of that it has faced a laundry list of no-name schools to put it mildly. Now it has to contend with a red hot Oklahoma State squad that has hung 80+ points on it in each of the last two meetings over the last two years and checks in off a 96-point effort against Charleston. Oral Roberts knows it is going to have to light up the scoreboard in order to keep pace in this one, and I think it can. Note that the Cowboys opponents have averaged just 20 three-point attempts per game so far this season. Oral Roberts averages 34. In its last two matchups against Oklahoma State, ORU hoisted up 32 and 33 three-point attempts, scoring 75 and 78 points in those two contests. The 75-point effort came despite shooting a woeful 33.8% overall and 21.9% from beyond the arc in the 2019 matchup. The Cowboys ride into this game on a three-game 'over' streak and I think it continues for at least one more game. Take the over (10*). |
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11-25-21 | Maryland v. Richmond +1.5 | 86-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Richmond plus the points over Maryland at 7 pm et on Thursday. Maryland got the bounce-back win it was looking for last time out but still didn't look overly impressive in a narrow two-point victory over Hofstra. While the Terps check in 4-1 SU on the campaign, they're just 1-4 ATS. Here, they'll face a Richmond squad that has been a little uneven in the early going but did deliver a 13-point win over aforementioned Hofstra last time out. The Spiders are shooting 48.3% against opponents that yield just 41.3% so far this season. Their three-point shooting has been terrific in the early going, knocking down their shots from long range at a 41% clip. By contrast, the Terps are shooting a miserable 25.4% from three-point range. Look for Richmond to stage the minor 'upset' here. Take Richmond (5*). |
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11-25-21 | UC San Diego -1 v. Southern Miss | 55-56 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cal-San Diego minus the points over Southern Miss at 7 pm et on Thursday. Southern Miss is coming off a double-digit win while Cal-San Diego suffered a double-digit loss in the two teams' respective tournament openers. Neither result was all that unexpected. Nor will the result be here as I believe the correct team is favored in this matchup. Cal-San Diego is off to a terrific 4-1 start. In its first year of Division-I basketball it struggled last season but that had a lot to do with a top-heavy Big West schedule. Here, in year two I look for UCSD to enjoy a lot more success, as we've already seen in the early going. While Southern Miss has scored 80+ points in consecutive games, that's had more to do with the level of opposition it has faced than anything else. I see this as a bad matchup for the Golden Eagles as they generally like to force opponents to shoot from the outside, an area where UCSD is highly-proficient, having knocked down just shy of 45% of its three-point attempts this season entering yesterday's action. Also note that UCSD has been better not only at getting to the free throw line, but making good on its attempts (76% entering yesterday's game compared to 69% for Southern Miss). The Golden Eagles are projected to finish near the bottom of C-USA this season while I believe UCSD is capable of making some noise and at the very least making life difficult on the top-flight teams in the Big West. This is a good measuring stick game for UCSD, especially off the 10-point loss to Montana and I look for it to come up with a victory. Take Cal-San Diego (8*). |
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11-25-21 | Alabama v. Iona OVER 148 | 68-72 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Alabama and Iona at 5 pm et on Thursday. When these two teams met in last March's NCAA Tournament we saw a much lower-scoring game than expected with Alabama essentially holding Iona down for 40 minutes in a 68-55 rout. Here, I'm anticipating a more spirited affair. Note that Iona got to the free throw line only five times in that previous matchup. The Gaels are getting to the line an average of 29 times per game in the early going this season. While the Gaels have yet to really get rolling offensively this season, I do think Alabama's up-tempo style will assist them in padding their offensive stats in this one. Note that the Crimson Tide are shooting a terrific 46.7% against opponents that allow just 40.6% this season. They've scored at least 86 points in three of four games so far. That low-scoring result in the 2021 NCAA Tournament is helping keep this total in check as I fully expected to see it open in the low-150's. Take the over (8*). |
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11-25-21 | Auburn v. Loyola-Chicago +2.5 | Top | 62-53 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Loyola-Chicago plus the points over Auburn at 2:30 pm et on Thursday. The Ramblers fell just short on a bucket in the final seconds against favored Michigan State yesterday afternoon (but did manage the narrow cover). They'll certainly want to come away from this tournament with something and I like their chances of picking up a win against Auburn, which is fresh off an emotionally and physically draining overtime loss at the hands of UConn yesterday afternoon. Credit Loyola-Chicago to sticking to its guns and turning yesterday's game against Michigan State into somewhat of a slugfest. The Ramblers fell behind 9-0 right out of the gate in that one but quickly rallied and ultimately took the Spartans right down to the wire. That's what we want to see from a mid-major in an early statement game against a top level opponent. The case can certainly be made that Michigan State is by no means a national title contender (not at this point anyway) but it was a test nonetheless - one that Loyola-Chicago passed as far as I'm concerned. Now comes and excellent chance for the Ramblers to bounce right back and pick up a victory that would certainly look good on their resume come March. Auburn certainly entered this tournament with its eyes on a championship and is obviously disappointed to be playing in the third-place game on Thursday. I feel the Tigers are a little overrated at this point, carrying a number-19 ranking into this tournament despite having not really faced anyone of true substance. I don't think they're going to like the type of game that the Ramblers will undoubtedly present them with here. Take Loyola-Chicago (10*). |
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11-25-21 | South Alabama v. San Diego -2 | 68-67 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego minus the points over South Alabama at 1:30 pm et on Thursday. We won with South Alabama last week but that was as a big underdog against Alabama. Here, the Jaguars are only catching a couple of points against San Diego and I believe the line will prove to be too short. Since consecutive narrow losses (and covers) against Wichita State and Alabama we've seen South Alabama take its frustrations out on the likes of Mobile and William Carey. While South Alabama has a couple of high-profile losses on its resume, San Diego has faced the tougher overall schedule, including games against Nevada, Cal and Cal-Riverside. It has managed to go 3-2 so far but checks in off a tough two-point loss to Cal-State Fullerton (as a 6.5-point favorite). The Toreros have proven to be an excellent three-point and free throw shooting team in the early going this season and I suspect that will be the difference against a South Alabama squad that has padded its stats on both ends of the floor against weaker competition. Take San Diego (8*). |
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11-24-21 | Sam Houston State v. SMU -14 | 66-75 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on SMU minus the points over Sam Houston State at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Tough spot for Sam Houston State here as it faces a SMU squad that will be in a foul mood after suffering back-to-back upset losses against Missouri and Loyola-Marymount. Keep in mind, Sam Houston State already has 22 and 13-point losses against Missouri State and Boston University respectively on its resume this season. While it has managed to post a 2-3 record, one of those victories came against little-known Letourneau. SMU opened the season with three wins in its first four games with the lone defeat coming at the hands of a quality Oregon squad, on the road no less. Off an 0-2 tournament showing, the Mustangs will be happy to be back home where they're a perfect 3-0 with all three victories coming by at least 17 points this season. Sam Houston State has yet to shoot better than 42.7% in a game this season and will have a miserable time trying to keep up on Wednesday night. Take SMU (9*). |
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11-24-21 | Stony Brook v. Fairfield UNDER 134.5 | 78-83 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Stony Brook and Fairfield at 2 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams met right around a year ago with that game reaching 141 points to topple the closing total of 131.5. We're dealing with a higher posted total in this rematch but I'm not sure the move is warranted. There was nothing exceptional that either team did in last year's matchup. In fact, both teams shot around 40% from the field, they combined to knock down only nine three-point attempts and missed a whopping 23 free throws. That game saw just 55 first half points. Only a late scoring flurry, aided by free throws, ended up pushing the game 'over' the total. I like the way this sets up as a bounce-back spot for Stony Brook defensively. It has allowed all three opponents to shoot 50% or better this season but keep in mind, two of its three games came against quality foes in George Mason and Kansas, both on the road no less. Fairfield has shot 42.9% or worse in three of four games this season with the other coming against little-known Medgar Evers. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 35-22 in Stony Brook's last 57 lined contests and 40-21 in Fairfield's last 61. Take the under (8*). |
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11-24-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan State UNDER 138.5 | 61-63 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Loyola-Chicago and Michigan State at 12 noon et on Wednesday. We'll go the contrarian route here and back the 'under' as the Ramblers enter this game sporting a 4-0 o/u record so far this season. Of course, Loyola-Chicago is known for its methodical pace and tough defense. Early on this season, however, the Ramblers have shot the lights out, knocking down better than 52% of their field goal attempts in all four games. The level of competition they've faced has had a lot to do with that as they've been favored by 18 points or more in all four games so far. Needless to say, they'll face their toughest test of the young season against the Spartans on Wednesday. Michigan State has held its last three opponents to a ridiculous 57-for-185 (30.8%) shooting. Like the Ramblers, the Spartans have also been lighting it up offensively. In their toughest previous test, they were held to a season-low 73 points against an undermanned Butler squad, however. With Loyola-Chicago looking to tighten things up off its worst defensive effort of the season (relatively speaking), I wouldn't anticipate Sparty running away and hiding in this one. Expect a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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11-23-21 | Nuggets +6.5 v. Blazers | Top | 100-119 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Northwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. I can understand the logic behind bettors lining up to back the Blazers in this 'revenge' spot at home after suffering a 29-point loss in Denver earlier this month. In fact, Portland is in a 'triple-revenge' spot having dropped three straight meetings in this series going back to last June's playoff series. With that being said, with our without Nikola Jokic, I look for the Nuggets to at the very least take this one down to the wire. We fell just short fading the Blazers in their last game - also as a home favorite against the undermanned 76ers. Philadelphia kept that game close throughout but ultimately missed the cover thanks to a couple of made free throws in the closing seconds. Close wins have been the Blazers calling card here at home in recent years. They enter this contest riding a season-high three-game winning streak. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have lost a season-high four in a row, including a lopsided defeat in Phoenix on Sunday. Consecutive stinkers haven't been commonplace when it comes to Denver, however. Note that the Nuggets are 14-4 ATS the last 18 times they've come off four ATS losses in their last five games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.1 points on average in that situation. I mentioned the 'revenge' angle earlier. Well, the Blazers have actually been outscored by 1.5 points on average the last 76 times they've been in a 'revenge' spot against an opponent. Also note that Portland has only managed to outscore the opposition by an average margin of 0.2 points after winning four or five of its last six games ATS over the last 2+ seasons (38-game sample size). Take Denver (10*). |
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11-23-21 | Heat v. Pistons OVER 207 | 100-92 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'under' in the Pistons last game against the Lakers on Sunday. I'm not interested in going back to the well with the same play here, in fact, I'll go the other way and back the 'over' as Detroit wraps up its homestand against the Heat. Miami checks in off a 103-100 loss in Washington on Saturday. That's notable as the 'over' has gone 12-2 the last 14 times the Heat have played on the road off a road loss with that spot producing an average total of 224.7 points. Better still, the 'over' is 11-1 in the Heat's last 12 games as a double-digit favorite (the spread has crept into that range over the course of the morning). That situation has led to an average total of 227.8 points. As for Detroit, it has seen the 'over' go a perfect 9-0 the last nine times it has followed up three or more consecutive home games, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 226.3 points. Finally, we'll note that all three of last year's meetings between these two teams totaled at least 220 points. Take the over (8*). |
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11-23-21 | Illinois -10.5 v. Kansas State | 72-64 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Illinois minus the points over Kansas State at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I like this as a 'get right' spot for the Illini after dropping back-to-back games as sizeable favorites. Unlike their last two games, which came against the likes of Marquette and Cincinnati, I believe the Illini will be able to overwhelm a Kansas State squad that possesses a rather limited offense on Tuesday night. Kansas State is off to a 2-1 start to the season but has yet to post an ATS victory. The Wildcats have succeeded thanks to facing opponents that boasted subpar offenses themselves. This will certainly be KSU's toughest matchup to date against an Illini team that shot a ridiculously low 28% from the field in Monday's rout at the hands of Cincinnati. One thing that has stayed true for the Illini through four games has been their stout defensive play. Opponents that average 42.4% shooting on the season are shooting just 37.4% against them. Look for the Wildcats to fall behind early and struggle to find a way back in the game, noting that the Illini have gone 16-6 ATS the last 22 times they've come off a game in which they shot 33% or worse from the field, as is the case here. Take Illinois (10*). |
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11-22-21 | Valparaiso +7 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 78-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
CBB Tournament Game of the Month. My selection is on Valparaiso plus the points over Jacksonville State at 8 pm et on Monday (game was delayed due to leak in the roof). Valpo is still looking for its first victory as the Beacons (formerly the Crusaders). I think it has a shot at getting it on Monday, however. Off a narrow missed cover as a road underdog against Stanford, here we'll note that Valpo has gone an incredible 43-15 ATS in its last 58 games when coming off a double-digit road loss. The Beacons are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games after allowing 60 points or less going back over the last 2+ seasons. Considering the Beacons don't have a lot of returning talent I see it as a positive that they've shot better than 41% from the field in each of their first three games this season. Jacksonville State is off to a 1-2 start with two of its three games decided by four points or less. Note that it is shooting just 67% from the free throw line and has benefited from facing three opponents that have been ice cold from the field (yes, JSU's defense has contributed to that but still). Note that JSU has been outscored by an average margin of 1.3 points after losing two of its last three games dealing with a 123-game sample size. Take Valparaiso (10*). |
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11-22-21 | Hornets v. Wizards OVER 215.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Monday. When these two teams last squared off in Charlotte last week, the Hornets cruised to a low-scoring (by today's NBA standards) 97-87 victory. Not surprisingly, we're dealing with a lower total this time around, but I'm not sure the move is warranted. Note that the 'over' is 23-12 with the Wizards seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 237.1 points. Also note that the Wiz average north of 119 points per game when playing at home off an 'under' result over the last two seasons (27-game sample size), as is the case here, leading to an average total of 234.8 points in that spot. The Hornets shot just 42.2% from the field in their last game - a 115-105 loss in Atlanta on Saturday. They're averaging 112.5 points in four previous games following a sub-43% shooting performance this season. The last time we saw these two teams match up in Washington there were 225 total points and we were dealing with a total set in the 230's. Take the over (10*). |
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11-21-21 | Lakers v. Pistons UNDER 212.5 | 121-116 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Detroit at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. Lost in Lebron James' return to the Lakers lineup is the fact that this team isn't playing a lick of defense right now - at least not on its current road trip. The Lakers gave up a whopping 130 points in Friday's rout at the hands of the Celtics. I see this as the perfect 'get right' spot for the Lakers defense, however, as they continue their trip against the inconsistent Pistons in Detroit. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 21-8 in the Lakers last 29 road games when coming off an ATS loss. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 9-0 when they play on the road off an upset loss as a favorite, with that situation totaling an average of just 206.2 points. Detroit checks in with the 'over' having cashed in three of its last four games but the Pistons are anything but reliable offensively, noting that they've scored 102 points or less in seven of their last 10 games. Interestingly, Los Angeles scored just 92 points in its lone trip to Detroit last season in a game that totaled only 199 points. Take the under (10*). |
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11-20-21 | 76ers +6 v. Blazers | 111-118 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The 76ers finally snapped their five-game losing streak with a blowout win in Denver two nights ago. I look for them to build off that performance here. Keep in mind, it's not as if the Sixers were getting completely outclassed during their slide. Four of their five losses came by single-digit margins while the other was an obvious outlier in Utah - a game in which they allowed the Jazz to shoot 51.7% from the field while knocking down just 36.7% of their own shots. Portland is coming off consecutive wins on its current homestand but not surprisingly both were close, by five-point margins. That's been the Blazers calling card here at home in recent years. Here, we'll note that Philadelphia checks in 18-5 ATS when coming off five or six ATS losses in their last seven games over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 9.6 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Blazers are 2-11 ATS when playing at least a third consecutive home game, outscored by 3.1 points on average in that situation. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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11-19-21 | Magic v. Nets OVER 209.5 | Top | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Friday. We already won with the 'over' in the first meeting between these two teams this season. With the scene shifting to Brooklyn for the rematch on Friday night, I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with the same play. Unders have dominated the NBA landscape so far this season so it's no surprise that we're dealing with another relatively low total for this one. I believe it will prove too low, noting that the Nets have been trending to the 'over' after reeling off seven straight 'under' results to open the campaign. The 'over' has now cashed in six of the Nets last nine contests. This sets up as a smash spot for the Nets offense, noting that they've scored 122, 129, 113 and 123 points in four meetings in this series going back to the start of last season. The Magic are certainly ripe for a letdown after posting their second victory over the Knicks at MSG this season two nights ago. They held New York under 100 points in that game. Keep in mind, Orlando is by no means an elite defensive team. Quite the opposite in fact. Prior to Wednesday's performance it had allowed three straight opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. On the flip side, the Magic were held to only 90 points in the first matchup between these two teams this season (as I mentioned, that game still went 'over' the total and we're dealing with an even lower total on Friday). Interestingly, the Magic have alternated good and bad offensive efforts against Brooklyn. Since the start of last season Orlando has scored 115, 92, 121 and 90 points in four matchups with the Nets. Take the over (10*). |
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11-18-21 | Spurs v. Wolves OVER 219 | Top | 90-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Spurs first game of their current three-game road trip this past Sunday against the Lakers and were certainly fortunate to do so, cashing that ticket by a single point. San Antonio followed up that game with another low-scoring result against the Clippers. Now we're seeing the lowest posted total of the trip, despite the fact that I believe this sets up as a the highest-scoring affair. While San Antonio is coming off a poor offensive performance, scoring only 92 points in a blowout loss against the Clippers, I do think it is well-positioned to bounce back here. First of all, it is catching Minnesota in a back-to-back spot off a 107-97 win over Sacramento last night. The T'Wolves could certainly fall victim to being 'fat and happy' in this spot after holding the Suns and T'Wolves to 37.6% and 36.6% shooting to open their current homestand. I don't believe the T'Wolves are nearly as good of a defensive team as they've shown. They've caught some opponents in favorable situations and I think it's been more of the case of those opponents having off shooting nights than anything else. I don't expect the Spurs to suffer from such shooting woes tonight, noting that they shoot just shy of 45% as a team on the road this season and have shot worse than 43% just once in their last eight games and on only two previous occasions this entire season. On the flip side, San Antonio is by no means an elite defensive team. In fact, the Spurs have allowed five opponents to shoot better than 51% from the field this season. While Minnesota scored 'only' 107 points in last night's victory, it did shoot 50% from the field and I'm confident we'll see some carry-over from that performance in a game that projects to be played at a quicker pace. Take the over (10*). |
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11-18-21 | UABÂ -2.5 v. South Carolina | 63-66 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on UAB minus the points over South Carolina at 7 pm et on Thursday. UAB is a team that's flying under the radar but boasts a ton of upside in head coach Andy Kennedy's second season at the helm. The Blazers have gotten off to a perfect 3-0 start, laying waste to the likes of UNC-Asheville, Morehead State and little known Rhodes College. I think they'll welcome the opportunity for this measuring stick game against an SEC foe - even if it is a lower-tier squad from the conference in South Carolina. The Blazers were always going to be a tough defensive team, applying intense pressure on the opposition and we've certainly seen that in the early going as they've forced an incredible 67 turnovers through three games. It's the UAB offense that was the biggest question mark heading into the season after a tough campaign in that regard. Well, early returns are positive as the Blazers have put up 102, 85 and 98 points, shooting better than 48% from the field in all three contests. While they are taking a step up in class here, I think the Blazers will be up for it. South Carolina underwent a tear-down of sort in the offseason, looking to put an awful Covid-tinged 2020-21 campaign behind it. The Gamecocks should be better this season but how much better remains to be seen. They're off to a 2-1 start with the loss coming as a six-point favorite against Princeton. The South Carolina offense has a lot of new pieces to work in, and so far we're seeing some growing pains. Note that the Gamecocks turned the ball over a whopping 24 times last time out against Western Kentucky. If they're careless with the basketball again in this one, the Blazers will make them pay. Take UAB (10*). |
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11-17-21 | UC-Davis +2 v. Pepperdine | 67-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cal-Davis plus the points over Pepperdine at 10 pm et on Wednesday. If you've followed my plays this season you know that I'm high on Cal-Davis. We backed it in last week's eventual eight-point victory over Eastern Washington that wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated. Some won while some didn't on that game thanks to some considerable line movement over the course of the day. Here, I believe the Aggies are well-positioned to stage the 'upset' against Pepperdine. The Waves are one of the more overrated teams in college basketball as far as I'm concerned. They've gone 1-2 ATS through three games with their lone victory coming against an offensively-challenged Idaho State squad. The Waves aren't shooting the ball well, nor are they defending well - not overly surprising given their lack of returning talent. Off a disheartening double-digit overtime loss against Utah Valley State, I'm not convinced we see Pepperdine pick itself up off the mat here. Take Cal-Davis (8*). |
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11-17-21 | Northern Colorado v. Texas -20.5 | 49-62 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas minus the points over Northern Colorado at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. I think Northern Colorado, while boasting plenty of talent - particularly at the offensive end of the floor - is quite simply in the wrong place at the wrong time on Wednesday night. Texas is coming off a tough 12-point loss against arguably the best team in the country in Gonzaga. That comes on the heels of a win and cover as a whopping 37.5-point favorite in the Longhorns season-opener against Houston Baptist. I'm confident we'll see the 'Horns get right back on track here as the Bears up-tempo style should play right into their hands. Northern Colorado simply doesn't have the same level of talent and athleticism that Texas boasts up and down its lineup. When these two teams last faced each other two years ago we saw Texas roll to a 24-point victory as a 16.5-point favorite. I'm not convinced the gap between the two programs has narrowed at all since, keeping in mind Northern Colorado already has a loss against the likes of Hawaii-Hilo under its belt this season. Texas takes full advantage of this 'get right' spot at home. Take Texas (8*). |
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11-17-21 | Tulane v. Florida State -18 | 54-59 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida State minus the points over Tulane at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I love the way this spot sets up for the Seminoles as they come off a disappointing blowout loss against rival Florida on Sunday. Tulane just doesn't have the size or talent to keep pace with Florida State here. Keep in mind, the 'Noles opened the season by scoring 105 points in a 35-point rout of Penn. They simply had an off day shooting the basketball on Sunday. The good news is, their defense did hold up for a second straight game - they've now held both opponents to sub-39% shooting this season. The Green Wave are not surprisingly off to a wildly inconsistent start, only managing to split their first two games, both at home, as considerable favorites against Southeast Louisiana and Southern. The fact that they only managed to put up 70 points in both of those contests doesn't bode well as they take a big step up in class here on Tuesday. Take Florida State (8*). |
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11-17-21 | Wizards v. Hornets | Top | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Charlotte over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. Bettors seem hesitant to buy into the Hornets, despite their current three-game winning streak, having most recently taken down the red hot Golden State Warriors on Sunday. Perhaps that shouldn't come as a surprise as Charlotte is just a week removed from a five-game losing streak. Here, I look for the Hornets to 'handle their business' in a home game against the improved and streaking Wizards. Washington checks into this game off five straight wins. Keep in mind, the Wizards were favored in four of those games and the other was a pk'em. Here, we'll note that the Wiz are long-term losers when playing on the road off three ATS wins in their last four games, as is the case here, having gone 82-115 ATS. They're also a miserable 174-219 ATS when coming off consecutive straight-up victories. These two teams met three times last season with Washington winning only once (but not covering) and that victory came at home. To find the last time the Wiz won a game here in Charlotte you would have to go all the way back to 2017. Take Charlotte (10*). |
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11-16-21 | Tarleton St v. Wichita State -12.5 | 51-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wichita State minus the points over Tarleton State at 8 pm et on Tuesday. Tarleton State has been given a lot of respect from the betting marketplace in the early going this season following a promising 2020-21 campaign - its first in Division I - not to mention the presence of legendary head coach Billy Gillespie. The Texans have already faced Stanford and Kansas and managed to go 1-0-1 ATS. They'll also go up against Michigan and Gonzaga in road tilts later this month. Note that the Texans turned the ball over just eight times and managed to shoot better than 40% from the field (an accomplishment given the level of opposition) against Kansas last time out but still lost by 26 points. Meanwhile, Wichita State is off to a 2-0 start but has gone 0-2 ATS, defeating Jacksonville State and South Alabama by a combined margin of only nine points. We've certainly yet to see the best from the Shockers - at either end of the floor. They've shot sub-39% in both games while allowing subpar opposition to shoot better than 42% in both contests. This is a Wichita State program that went through plenty of distractions last offseason and by all accounts 2020-21 should have been a down season, yet the Shockers ended up exceeding expectations and receiving an NCAA Tournament at-large bid. They certainly have their sights set on another NCAA Tournament berth this season and have the returning talent to reach that goal. This is a good opportunity for them to ramp up before the schedule gets a whole lot tougher with an opening round matchup against Arizona up next in the Roman Main Event Tournament in Las Vegas on Friday. After that tournament they'll face the likes of Missouri, Oklahoma State and Kansas State in consecutive games, with the latter matchup coming in another early season tournament. Take Wichita State (10*). |
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11-16-21 | Warriors v. Nets OVER 221 | Top | 117-99 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The NBA season got off to a low-scoring start for sure. Both of these teams were a part of that for sure as the Warriors opened with seven of their first eight games going 'under' the total while the Nets started the campaign with seven consecutive 'under' results. Since then, we've seen a different story unfold, however. The 'over' has cashed in three of the Warriors last five games and four of the Nets last five contests, including each of the last three. With that being said, Golden State is coming off a relatively low-scoring affair in Charlotte as it fell by a 106-102 score. That leaves us with a very reasonable total in Tuesday's matchup in Brooklyn, especially when you consider last season's two meetings saw closing totals of 238 and 246 points with both of those games surpassing the total we're working with tonight. I mentioned the Nets roll into this game on a three-game 'over' streak. That's worth noting as the 'over' has gone 18-8 the last 26 times they've come off two or more straight 'over' results, producing an average total of 236.1 points in that situation. While there are plenty of 'under' trends at play when it comes to the Warriors, the majority of those situations have still produced higher average totals than we're working with on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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11-16-21 | South Alabama +23.5 v. Alabama | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on South Alabama plus the points over Alabama at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. With Alabama off to a perfect 2-0 start, both SU and ATS, cashing in a much lower pointspread range than we're working with tonight, this looks like the ideal time to step in and fade the Crimson Tide against an underrated South Alabama squad. The Jaguars are pegged by many to be a top-three team in the Sun Belt Conference this season, with a wealth of talent coming in by way of transfers, as is often the case under head coach Richie Riley. Riley apparently turned down a head coaching offer from Utah State in the offseason, which obviously would have been a higher-profile position. I don't really blame him as he's building something special at USA and might have his most talented team yet here in his fourth year at the helm. Alabama obviously boasts much loftier goals than USA. However, the Crimson Tide do have plenty of losses to deal with from last season's impressive squad. They've gotten off to a blistering start at the offensive end of the floor, shooting 50% and 49% in scoring 93 and 104 points against Louisiana Tech and South Dakota State, respectively, but I expect them to run into a bit more trouble against South Alabama and its predominantly zone defense. South Alabama has to feel pretty good about itself after suffering a narrow six-point loss against likely NCAA Tournament squad Wichita State, on the road no less, last time out. The Jaguars would love nothing more than to pick up an early season marquee victory, even if it is highly unlikely here. Nothing that they've gone 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog, we'll simply count on them to stay inside the lofty pointspread as I think a lot of bettors are sleeping on the Jags at this early stage of the campaign. Take South Alabama (8*). |
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11-15-21 | Southern Utah +11 v. St. Mary's | Top | 51-70 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Southern Utah plus the points over St. Mary's at 10 pm et on Monday. St. Mary's is poised to take a step forward after a rare down year in 2020-21 but it certainly can't afford to sleep on a Southern Utah squad that went 20-4 last season and brings pretty much everyone that matters back into the fold. The Thunderbirds are coming off an upset loss as a double-digit favorite at Dixie State, however, and with that in mind, I feel they're undervalued in this matchup against what has long been considered a 'name brand' program in St. Mary's. This game will feature a sharp contrast in styles as Southern Utah boasts an explosive offense and will look to push the pace. St. Mary's is more adept at slowing things down. The Gaels look to eliminate passing lanes and force turnovers at the defensive end of the floor. I'm not convinced they'll have an easy time doing so against a seasoned Thunderbirds squad that excels on dribble handoffs and driving to the basket. Note that St. Mary's has only outscored opponents by 6.9 points on average when coming off consecutive wins over the last 2+ seasons (26-game sample size). That's close to where I feel this line should be sitting but with the Gaels 2-0 off back-to-back comfortable wins and Southern Utah fresh off the aforementioned upset loss to little-known Dixie State, we're being given a fairly generous cushion. Take Southern Utah (10*). |
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11-15-21 | Kings v. Pistons OVER 212 | Top | 129-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over between Sacramento and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Kings have somewhat surprisingly trended toward the 'under' this season and are coming off another low-scoring result in a narrow two-point loss in Oklahoma City on Friday. Keep in mind, they're just one game removed from a while 136-117 loss in San Antonio. Here, we'll note that Sacramento road games have totaled an average of 220.9 points over the last 2+ seasons. The Kings lone trip to Detroit last season produced 217 points. The Pistons two best offensive showings of the season have come in their last three games as they put up 112 and 127 points in wins over Houston and Toronto, respectively. Note that they've allowed an average of 115.4 points when coming off a victory going back to last season, with those contests producing an average total of 217.7 points. I like the fact that Detroit shook out of its shooting slump by knocking down an incredible 54.4% of its shots against the Raptors on Saturday and now gets to face a Kings squad that has been vulnerable defensively on its current road trip and has also been pushing the pace, hoisting up 92 and 95 field goal attempts in its last two contests. I simply feel the erratic nature of the two offenses in the early going this season is providing us with a very reasonable total to work with here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-14-21 | Spurs v. Lakers UNDER 221.5 | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Los Angeles at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. The Spurs have been involved in consecutive high-scoring 'over' results but both of those games were played at home. San Antonio's six road games this season have averaged just 204.8 total points with the 'under' cashing at a 5-1 clip. With a number of key injuries, the Lakers have been highly-inconsistent offensively of late and are coming off an ugly 107-83 loss to the T'Wolves here at home on Friday. That's the same T'Wolves squad that the Clippers hung 129 points on last night (we won with the 'over' in that game). Note that the 'under' is 28-15 in the Lakers last 43 games with the total set at 220 points or higher. The 'under' is also 19-8 in Los Angeles' last 27 games as a home favorite of six points or less with that situation resulting in an average total of 213.9 points. As for the Spurs, the last 17 times they've played on the road off a loss they've seen an average total of just 216.5 points scored. Take the under (7*). |
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11-13-21 | Wolves v. Clippers OVER 220 | 102-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Saturday. The T'Wolves are coming off a low-scoring blowout win over the Lakers here at Staples Center last night, ended a brief string of consecutive 'over' results. The Clippers on the other hand have seen their last three games go 'over' the total and I look for that trend to continue here. The Clips are absolutely rolling offensively right now, having scored 120, 117 and 112 points in the first three games of their current homestand. They've had their way with the T'Wolves in recent years, scoring at least 115 points in 10 of the last 11 meetings in this series. While Minnesota's offense has come around on its current road trip, it continues to struggle defensively, and should for the foreseeable future. The Wolves caught the Lakers in a very difficult spot last night, undermanned and coming off a tough overtime win over the Heat, and took full advantage. Here, they won't be so fortunate. Note that the T'Wolves have seen an average total of 230.3 points the last 17 times they've come off an outright underdog win. The 'over' is 25-10 with Minnesota on the road coming off five or six losses over its last seven games over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 238.1 points. Take the over (8*). |
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11-13-21 | Evansville v. Belmont -13.5 | 43-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Belmont minus the points over Evansville at 5 pm et on Saturday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Belmont Bruins here as they look to respond following an 'upset' loss against Ohio last time out. Here, they'll catch Evansville 'fat and happy' off a 20-point rout of an overmatched IUPUI squad two nights ago. Keep in mind, the Purple Aces opened their season with a 22-point loss against Cincinnati. While they do figure to be stronger than they were a year ago, they're still going to face an uphill battle against their tougher non-conference foes, and Belmont certainly falls into that category. These teams actually met last season with Belmont prevailing by nine points on the road. Evansville knocked down 11 threes compared to Belmont's four on that night to keep the game competitive. It also turned the ball over only 11 times. Here, the Purple Aces check in having turned it over 28 times through two contests. Look for Belmont to apply the pressure and ultimately pull away for a comfortable victory on Saturday, noting that the Bruins are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games following an ATS loss, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 18.3 points in that situation. Take Belmont (6*). |
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11-12-21 | Blazers -6.5 v. Rockets | 104-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland minus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Blazers have yet to register a victory on the road this season but they've also faced some pretty tough opposition. This game against Houston marks their best chance at a road win and I expect them to come up big. Here, we'll note that the Rockets are a woeful 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points, outscored by 10.7 points on average in that situation. They're also a miserable 1-12 ATS in their last 13 home games after scoring 105 points or less in their last contest, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 14.5 points in that spot. Last time out, the Rockets held the Pistons to 43.3% shooting and turned the ball over only 13 times - well below their season-average of 19 - yet still lost by eight points in a game where they closed as a three-point favorite. I simply feel it will be a case of the Rockets being in the wrong place at the wrong time as they face a Blazers squad that will be looking to take its frustrations out on Friday night. Take Portland (7*). |
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11-12-21 | Eastern Washington v. UC-Davis -8 | 76-84 | Push | 0 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cal-Davis minus the points over Eastern Washington at 5 pm et on Friday. Credit Eastern Washington for putting up 76 points in its season-opener against Nevada but it still fell by 15 points in that game and I'm not convinced we'll see the Eagles improve on that losing margin by much in this one. It's going to be an uphill battle early on for EWU this season as few programs in the country have had to endure more roster turnover. Now the Eagles face exactly the type of team you don't want to see with a new-look lineup out of the gate as Cal-Davis plays a frenetic style of defense that will press for a full 40 minutes. That pesky defense led the Aggies to a big 72-69 upset win over Utah State in their season-opener. They secured the win despite shooting sub-40% from the field and knocking down just 6-of-21 three-point attempts. That's pretty much par for the course for a team that is never going to be known for its sharp-shooting. Cal-Davis will once again rely on hoisting up shots and crashing the boards and should find some success doing so against an EWU squad that is extremely vulnerable as it tries to work so many new pieces into the rotation. Note that the Eagles forced just nine turnovers in their opener. I'm not sure we can expect them to shoot better than the 43.9% they posted against Nevada and certainly anticipate them turning the ball over more than the 14 times they did in that contest. Look for an experienced Aggies squad to take another stride forward on Friday afternoon. Take Cal-Davis (10*). |
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11-11-21 | Heat v. Clippers -3.5 | 109-112 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Miami at 10:40 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way the Clippers are playing right now, finding their way after a tough start to the season. They check into tonight's contest riding a five-game winning streak, having scored 120 and 117 points in the first two games of their current homestand. They're catching the Heat in the right place at the right time tonight as Miami has gotten off to a tough 0-2 start to its current road trip, suffering consecutive emotional losses against the Nuggets and Lakers. I'm not convinced the Heat can simply flip the switch after shooting 39.7% and 41.7% in their last two games and now facing a solid Clippers defense. Note that Miami is a woeful 4-13 ATS when coming off consecutive losses going back to last season, outscored by an average margin of 5.2 points in that situation. You would have to go back six meetings in this series all the way to December of 2018 to find the last time Miami managed to post a victory (0-5 SU and ATS last five meetings). Take Los Angeles (9*). |
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11-11-21 | Cal-Riverside v. Arizona State UNDER 142 | Top | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between UC-Riverside and Arizona State at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. Expectations are fairly high for both of these teams although Arizona State certainly boasts the loftier goals. The Sun Devils are hoping that a number of key transfers can help them rebound from a disastrous Covid-tinged 2020-21 season. Meanwhile, Riverside is hoping to build on the progress it made during a big 'step up' campaign last season. The Highlanders will once again hang their hats on their defensive play, which should be every bit as sound as it was a year ago. They drew a tough season-opening matchup on Tuesday but still managed to hold their own, allowing only 66 points while limiting San Diego State to 49 field goal attempts. The problem was their own three-point shots weren't falling (6-of-22 from three-point range) in an eventual 13-point loss as a 12.5-point underdog. Arizona State will look to play fast, just as it always has under Bobby Hurley. I do think the Highlanders are capable of frustrating the Sun Devils a bit in that regard though. Like Riverside, Arizona State struggled from beyond the arc in its season-opener, knocking down only 7-of-26 three-point attempts. The Sun Devils ultimately scored 76 points against Portland on Tuesday, but only managed to do so thanks to hoisting up 66 shots - a number I'm not convinced they can approach here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-10-21 | Blazers v. Suns OVER 222.5 | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'over' between Portland and Phoenix at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in the Blazers loss against the Clippers in Los Angeles last night. Here, we'll switch gears a little bit and play the first half 'over' only, out of respect for the Suns coaching and their advantage of catching Portland in a back-to-back spot. There's certainly a chance we see Phoenix make the necessary adjustments at halftime and for the Blazers offense to fade in the second half in this spot - at least I believe that's well within the realm of possibility on Wednesday. Damian Lillard wasn't happy with the officiating in last night's game, or this season in general. He feels he's not getting the calls he should be. I would certainly expect him to come out aggressively against the Suns on Wednesday and I do think he'll get some of those calls he's been pining for. The Suns are of course without DeAndre Ayton but did manage to post a 109-104 victory in Sacramento on Monday. We have seen them consistently get off to slow starts defensively, allowing 59, 61, 58 and 64 points in the first half of their last four contests. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 38-21 in the first half with the Blazers having won two of their last three games over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 119.2 points. Meanwhile, the Suns have posted a 15-5 o/u mark in the first half going back to last season when coming off consecutive ATS wins as a favorite, as is the case here, producing an average total of 115.8 points. Take the first half over (8*). |
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11-10-21 | Nets v. Magic OVER 209.5 | Top | 123-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. Ordinarily I might consider this to be a potential flat spot for the Nets as they play in a three-in-four situation on the road against the lowly Magic. However, here Brooklyn checks in off an ugly blowout loss in Chicago - a game in which it scored only 95 points and shot worse than 40% from the field. This looks like an ideal bounce-back spot offensively after the Nets scored 122, 129 and 113 points in three meetings with Orlando last season. The Magic have been marauding as a good defensive team lately, holding five straight opponents to 44.4% shooting or worse, while giving up more than 102 points only once over that stretch. I don't believe that run of success is sustainable, however. Keep in mind, in their first six games this season, the Magic allowed four opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and three of those teams to score 120+ points. Orlando's last 46 games as a home underdog have totaled an average of 216.5 total points. The fact that the Magic have seen each of their last four games stay 'under' the total while the Nets have posted a 2-9 o/u mark this season is what is keeping this total in a very reasonable range. Note that last year's three matchups between these teams each saw closing totals of 225.5 points or higher and all three contests surpassed the total we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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11-10-21 | Buffalo +15.5 v. Michigan | Top | 76-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
CBB Game of the Week. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Michigan at 6:30 pm et on Wednesday. Expectations are sky-high once again in Ann Arbor this season and the Wolverines are certainly a legitimate national title contender. With that being said, I do think an experienced, ultra-talented Buffalo squad is capable of giving them a run here in their season-opener on Wednesday. The Bulls could turn out to be 'best in class' in the MAC this season although Ohio may have something to say about that. This is an excellent measuring stick game right out of the gate and I expect the Bulls to relish the opportunity. Four starters return to Buffalo and Jim Whitesell's group should once again push the pace at every opportunity, perhaps catching the Wolverines a little off guard here in the first game of the season. Keep in mind, for as dominant as Michigan was last season, it opened the campaign by winning home games against Bowling Green and Oakland by just 14 and 10-point margins, respectively. In time, the Wolverines should once again evolve into an elite rim and perimeter defending team but Buffalo is a tough opening draw before it has a chance to settle in, especially with plenty of new faces in the lineup. While Buffalo is known for its up-tempo, explosive offense, it can play some defense as well. In fact, the Bulls were the best defensive squad in the MAC last year. Last season's MAC Defensive Player of the Year, Josh Mballa is back in the fold to anchor the Bulls defensive sets. While a 1-0 start should be well within reach for the Wolverines, this should be a test. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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11-09-21 | Blazers v. Clippers OVER 220 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We've already seen two matchups between these two teams this season with both of those games staying 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however. Keep in mind, in both of those previous meetings the winning team scored more than 110 points. Last season's three meetings totaled 233, 249 and 225 points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 19-7 with the Blazers coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last 2+ seasons and here they're coming off four straight 'unders'. That situation has produced an average total of 232.4 points. Better still, the 'over' is 33-17 with Portland playing on the road off a win over the same stretch, resulting in an average total of 233.9 points in that spot. As for the Clippers, they've averaged 117.5 points when playing at home with the total set at 220 points or higher over the last 2+ seasons, producing an average total of 225.5 points. Keeping in mind we saw a closing total of 230.5 points the first time these two teams met this season and the fact that we have regression to the mean factors at play when it comes to the Blazers offense and defense (they're coming off their lowest-scoring game of the season) and the Clippers defense (they held struggling Charlotte to 40.6% shooting last time out), I believe Tuesday's total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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11-09-21 | St. Peter's v. VCU UNDER 132.5 | 54-57 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Peter's and VCU and 6 pm et on Tuesday. St. Peter's returns all five starters from last year's team including defensive standout KC Ndefo and should prove to be a tricky season-opening non-conference opponent for VCU on Tuesday. The Peacocks ranked eighth in the country in defensive rating last season and will hang their hat on their play at the end of the floor again here in 2021-22. That's because their offense remains severely limited, noting they finished T233rd in pace rating and T324th in field goal percentage last season and don't figure to show a big improvement. This is certainly a tough season-opening draw for St. Peter's as well with VCU coming off a season that saw it finish 15th in the country in defensive rating and sixth in steals. While there are major questions in the backcourt, especially after losing Bones Hyland to the NBA and Ace Baldwin to a devastating ruptured achilles in the offseason, the Rams mantra will remain the same and that means playing a high-pressure brand of defense and being physical on offense, waiting for its opportunities to get to the rim rather than relying on outside shooting. The latter can result in draining the shot clock, and I'm confident Ndefo and the Peacocks will make them work for every basket down low. Both of these teams were comfortable playing games in the 110's and 120's last season and I would expect nothing different as they work out the kinks in Tuesday's season-opener. Take the under (10*). |
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11-08-21 | Heat v. Nuggets +2.5 | Top | 96-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Miami at 9:10 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up for the Nuggets as they host the Heat on Monday night. Miami will be playing its fourth game in the last seven nights, in three different cities. The Heat needed every bit of their blistering 60.3% shooting performance to take down the Jazz at home on Saturday, ultimately winning that game by three points. It's worth noting that Miami was favored by a virtually identical pointspread to tonight in its last road game against Dallas. In that situation, the Heat were playing on two days' rest and keep in mind, that's the same Mavs squad that the Nuggets beat by 31 points earlier this season. Here, I like the fact that the Heat are in line for some offensive regression following that ridiculous shooting performance on Saturday while the Nuggets are coming off a sleepy effort against the lowly Rockets in which they shot just 40.4% in a matinee affair on Saturday. Michael Porter Jr. is expected to miss this game for Denver but he's been somewhat disappointing this season anyway, topping out at 15 points and that came in the season-opener. Note that the Nuggets are 31-14 ATS the last 45 times they've come off three consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.2 points in that situation. Take Denver (10*). |
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11-07-21 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 219.5 | 107-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Golden State at 8:40 pm et on Sunday. We missed badly with the 'over' in the Rockets matinee affair against the Nuggets in Denver yesterday as Houston turned in a rare strong defensive showing (or perhaps it was just a sleepy game all around) in a narrow one-point loss. The Rockets are still a bad defensive team as far as I'm concerned and they'll undoubtedly have their hands full against the red hot Warriors on Sunday. Note that on eight occasions where they've been listed as a 12.5-point or higher road underdog over the last 2+ seasons, the Rockets have put up an impressive 118.4 points on average, resulting in an average total of 244.8 points in that situation, as is the case here. The 'over' is 14-4 with the Rockets playing on the road off a road loss going back to last season, leading to an average total of 233.6 points in that spot. The Warriors have held each of their last three opponents to 92 points or less but I do think some regression is in order here. I do think they'll come out with an attacking mentality given the Rockets are in a second of back-to-back and three-in-four spot here and the pace alone should help the Houston offense contribute enough to help this one 'over' the very reasonable total. Note that Houston did put up 109 points in its lone trip to San Francisco last season with that game totaling 234 points. Take the over (8*). |
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11-06-21 | 76ers v. Bulls -3.5 | 114-105 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Philadelphia at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The Bulls have already suffered a couple of tough losses against division opponents this season, including a five-point loss against the same 76ers that they'll face on Saturday night last time out. Philadelphia enters this game off five straight victories, somewhat surprisingly as it continues to play on without some key cogs including Tobias Harris who remains in Covid protocol. Here, we'll note that the 76ers are just 3-12 ATS the last 15 times they've come off consecutive ATS victories as a favorite, as is the case here. The Bulls meanwhile are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a close loss by six points or less, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.1 points in that situation. Philadelphia has now taken eight straight meetings in this series but that included matchups against some bad Bulls teams. Look for an improved Chicago team to bounce back and deliver a win and cover here. Take Chicago (8*). |
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11-06-21 | Rockets v. Nuggets OVER 219 | 94-95 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Denver at 5:10 pm et on Saturday. The Nuggets have now seen the 'under' cash in four straight and seven of their eight games so far this season. I believe Houston is an ideal opponent to break that streak on Saturday afternoon in Denver. Note that the Nuggets absolutely throttled the Rockets defense in three meetings last year, putting up 124, 128 and 129 points. The two games played here in Denver between these two teams totaled 235 and 245 points. The Rockets come into this game having dropped the first three games on their current road trip. Houston isn't going to play much defense but it can score, as evidenced by the fact that it enters this contest having put up 117 and 111 points in its last two games. The Rockets should continue to push the pace here as they try to break out of their slide, keeping in mind they did manage to score 111 and 116 points in two matchups here in Denver last season. The same trend we've supported in the Rockets last two games is in play again here, noting that the 'over' is 14-3 with Houston playing on the road off a road loss over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 236.3 points. Take the over (10*). |
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11-05-21 | Pacers v. Blazers OVER 223.5 | 106-110 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Pacers haven't been involved in as many high-scoring track meets as they were last season, at least early on here in 2021-22. With that being said, I believe the totals have been over-adjusted as a result. With the 'under' having cashed in three of Indiana's last four games, I believe we're being given a very reasonable number to work with here. The Pacers enter this contest on their first two-game winning streak of the season. That's worth noting as the 'over' has gone 12-2 the last 14 times they've come off consecutive victories, resulting in an average total of 241.5 points. As for the Blazers, they're reeling right now off three straight losses. All three of those losses came on the road though. Back at home, I expect them to go back to their sharp-shooting ways. Note that the 'over' is 11-2 the last 13 times the Blazers have come off consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 236.0 points in that spot. The last time we saw these two teams match up they combined to score a whopping 245 points last April. Take the over (8*). |
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11-05-21 | Spurs v. Magic OVER 213 | 102-89 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Magic are coming off an awful showing against the Celtics two nights ago as they fell by a score of 92-79 in an extremely low-scoring affair. I look for a different story to unfold as they welcome the Spurs to Amway Arena on Friday night. Keep in mind, prior to that poor performance, the Magic had scored 111, 109, 103 and 115 points in their previous four games. The 'over' is still 6-3 in their nine games to date this season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 24-10 with the Magic revenging a same-season loss against an opponent going back to last season, resulting in an average total of 221.8 points. Better still, the 'over' is 9-1 the last 10 times Orlando has been at home revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent (the Spurs beat the Magic 123-97 in San Antonio on October 20th), producing an average total of 228.5 points in that spot. The Spurs check in having scored 118 and 108 points in their last two games, shooting 52.8% and 48.9% from the field in those two contests. The 'over' is 23-11 in their last 34 games against Eastern Conference foes, with an average total of 227.5 points scored. Take the over (8*). |
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11-05-21 | Grizzlies v. Wizards OVER 220.5 | 87-115 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Memphis is coming off consecutive 'under' results. In fact, the 'under' is 4-1 in its last five contests. I look for that trend to reverse on Friday, however, as the Grizzlies head to Washington to face the Wizards. Washington is coming off a relatively low-scoring affair of its own against Toronto two nights ago. Note that prior to that, the Wiz had seen their last three games go 'over' the total with those contests reaching 233, 227 and 229 points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 9-0 with the Grizzlies on the road coming off three wins in their last four games going back to last season, good for an average total of 240.7 points. When the Grizz play on the road off consecutive wins, they're on a 13-2 'over' streak, with that situation producing an average total of 238.9 points. As for the Wizards, they've seen an average total of 238.8 points scored the last 24 times they've played at home following an 'under' result. Expect a return to 'normal' for Washington here. Take the over (8*). |
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11-05-21 | Spurs -3.5 v. Magic | 102-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Friday. In this battle of two-win teams, I simply feel that the Spurs are the superior team and just as they did in a 26-point rout in San Antonio back on October 20th, I look for them to prove it on the floor on Friday night. Note that the Magic are a pitiful 14-30 ATS in their last 44 games as a home underdog, outscored by an average margin of 11.9 points in that situation. Worse still, Orlando is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games when revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent, as is the case here following that 20+ point loss in San Antonio earlier this season. Oddly enough, the Magic have been outscored by an identical 11.9-point margin on average in that situation. The Spurs are coming of consecutive losses including a narrow one-point setback against the Mavericks last time out. Note that they own a stellar 26-14 ATS mark in their last 40 road games, including a 120-97 victory as a seven-point favorite here in Orlando last April. Take San Antonio (8*). |
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11-05-21 | Nets v. Pistons +10.5 | 96-90 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We missed with the Pistons last night as they failed to show up in the second half in an 11-point loss to the 76ers. Call me crazy but the fact that they actually 'only' lost by 11 points despite scoring just 32 second half points was encouraging. Here, I simply feel they're catching way too many points as they host a 'fat and happy' Nets squad coming off three consecutive victories with the last two coming in blowout fashion. Interestingly, the Pistons are 16-5 ATS when coming off three consecutive losses going back to last season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.3 points in that spot. While they're just 22-37 ATS the last 59 points they've been revenging a same-season loss against an opponent, that doesn't tell the whole story as they've been outscored by just 6.1 points on average in that situation - obviously a considerably shorter number than the pointspread we're working with here tonight. In two meetings between these two teams in Detroit last season, the Pistons won 122-111 and lost 113-111. Brooklyn has yet to win three straight games ATS this season and I'm willing to bet they fail to accomplish that feat here. Take Detroit (7*). |
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11-04-21 | Thunder v. Lakers OVER 217.5 | 107-104 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Thursday. PLEASE NOTE: Downgrading this to a 5* play with the news that Lebron James will be OUT tonight. We won with the 'over' in the Lakers most recent game - a narrow 119-117 victory over the Rockets two nights ago. The fact that the Thunder are coming off a game that totaled only 193 points against the Clippers while the Lakers are just one game removed from a contest that totaled only 180 points is keeping this total lower than it probably should be. I do think this total would make sense if we were talking about last season's Lakers team. The 2021-22 edition is much stronger offensively, however, while still playing an inconsistent brand of defensive basketball. The Thunder are by no means an offensive juggernaut. In fact, they're one of the worst offensive teams in the league by most metrics. With that being said, they did put up 123 points in a win over the Lakers last week and I'm confident we'll see them push the pace again here after being held to 82 and 94 points in consecutive losses to open this three-game road trip. Note that the last time we saw them shoot worse than 40% in consecutive games they bounced back with a 47.6% shooting effort, scoring 103 points against the 76ers. Having scored at least 113 points in five of their last six games and with revenge on their minds given that aforementioned loss against the Thunder, I fully expect to see the Lakers go off offensively in this one. They've put up 128, 119, 114 and 115 points in four meetings with the Thunder going back to last season. I will point out, however, that they've allowed 113.3 points on average when coming off consecutive home wins going back to last season with that spot producing an average total of 224.2 points. This total proves to be too low on Thursday. Take the over (5*). |
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11-04-21 | Rockets v. Suns OVER 218 | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday. We've yet to see scoring really pick up in the NBA this season but I do think it's only a matter of time before we see a shift away from the lower-scoring contests. In this spot, I simply feel the total has been set too low. The Rockets are by no means a quality defensive team. They're going to have their hands full with a surging Suns squad on Thursday night. We have seen Houston stay competitve at times this season thanks to its offense. That could very well be the case again on Thursday. Note that the 'over' is 13-3 the last 16 times the Rockets have played on the road off a road loss, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 236.5 points. On the flip side, the Suns have seen the 'over' cash at a 23-9 clip the last 32 times they've come off a double-digit win, producing an average total of 227 points in that spot. The 'over' is also a profitable 39-22 after the Suns give up 105 points or less in a game over the last 2+ seasons, good for an average total of 224.4 points in that situation. The last time these two teams met in the desert they combined to put up 246 points last April. We don't need anything close to that level of track meet to cash this ticket. Take the over (7*). |
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11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons +6 | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. This is an ideal spot to fade the 'fat and happy' 76ers as they come off four straight wins, all at home. Philadelphia has had to deal with some key absences lately with Tobias Harris missing time due to Covid protocols and Joel Embiid dealing with a nagging knee injury. Of course, there's no guarantee Embiid plays tonight in a back-to-back spot but we'll make this play on the assumption he is able to go. The Pistons have lost back-to-back games in blowout fashion. Those came in tough spots at Brooklyn and at home against the Bucks. Here, they're home and waiting for the Sixers, noting the last time these two teams squared off at Little Caesar's Arena last January it was no contest as Detroit rolled to a 119-104 victory as a 4.5-point underdog. Here, we're getting an even more favorable number. Look for the Pistons to take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take Detroit (10*). |
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11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons OVER 209 | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. Off yet another relatively low-scoring game last night the 76ers have now seen each of their last five contests stay 'under' the total. I look for that streak to come to an end in Motown on Thursday. Despite that 'under' streak, the 76ers offense has performed well, scoring at least 109 points in six of eight games to date this season. Tonight's opponent, Detroit, is certainly not defensive powerhouse, having allowed four of its last five opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. In fact, over their last two games, the Pistons have allowed the Nets and Bucks to shoot a blazing 89-for-156 (57.1%). Given their defense looks broken, the Pistons will need to step up offensively in order to stay competitive in this one and I'm confident they can do just that, noting that arguably a weaker offensive squad managed to put up 110 and 119 points in two home meetings with the 76ers last season. Having shot worse than 41% from the field in six of seven games so far this season, it's only a matter of time before some more of Detroit's shots start falling. The Pistons might be catching the 76ers in the right place at the right time as Philadelphia is 'fat and happy' off four straight victories, all coming at home, and has allowed five of its last seven opponents to shoot 46.3% or better from the field. Keep an eye on the status of Joel Embiid for the Sixers as he's been known to rest on the back half of back-to-backs, allowing recovery time for an ailing knee. If he doesn't go that should only serve to give us an even better number to work with. Take the over (8*). |
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11-03-21 | Blazers -157 v. Cavs | 104-107 | Loss | -157 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland moneyline over Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. There's a chance the Cavaliers might actually be good this season. Since starting the campaign 0-2 they've won four of their last six games SU and five of those ATS. Here, they're back home 'fat and happy' off a 3-2 road trip that took them to a lot of tough venues. I don't like the setup for Cleveland in this spot, however, as it hosts a Blazers team that will be looking to salvage a win on their own three-game road trip. Portland clearly got caught overlooking an Embiid and Harris-less 76ers squad on Monday, its second straight outright loss as a favorite to open the trip. A win here still gets the Blazers back to the .500 mark before returning home for a quick two-game set against the Pacers and Lakers. Here, we'll note that the Blazers have proven to be a solid bounce-back team off a bad loss, going 16-7 SU the last 23 times they have played on the road off a double-digit loss as a road favorite. Meanwhile, the Cavs are a tired team playing on just one day of rest off a five-game road trip and have gone a miserable 7-32 SU the last 39 times they've played their sixth (or more) game in the last 10 days, as is the case here. We certainly saw signs of a tired team in Monday's game in Charlotte as the Cavs put up 40 points in the first quarter but then failed to top 25 points in any of the final three quarters. Having shot 43.3% or worse from the field in five of their last six games and not exactly known as an elite defensive team, even though the Cavs have enjoyed plenty of success lately they have a pretty thin margin for error in my opinion. They caught the Hornets in a favorable spot on Monday and Charlotte shot 41.2% from the field but still managed to take Cleveland right down to the wire in an eventual 113-110 Cavs victory. The Blazers on the other hand aren't shooting all that poorly (44.3% and 47.6% in their last two games) but there's a lot of room for improvement defensively after allowing the Hornets and 76ers to both shoot better than 51% from the field to open this trip. This is a fine 'get right' spot for Portland given that it disposed of Cleveland by 19 and 36 points in last year's two meetings. The Cavs are certainly a better team this season but I'm not sure their recent success is sustainable. Rather than lay the points with the Blazers here, we'll back them on the moneyline as the reasonable price warrants such a play. Take Portland moneyline (6*). |
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11-03-21 | Raptors v. Wizards -3 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Toronto at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We successfully faded the Wizards in their last game as they fell by seven points in Atlanta. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Wiz as they return home to host a Raptors squad they had their way with earlier this season. Toronto is coming off a huge win in New York on Monday, fueled by a career night from O.G. Anunoby. I'm not counting on a repeat performance here. Note that while the Raps have now won four games in a row, here they find themselves in a spot that has seen them go a miserable 1-9 ATS after winning five or six of their last seven games going back to last season, outscored by an average margin of 10.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Washington is an excellent positive momentum play as it has posted an incredible 15-1 ATS record after winning three of its last four games over the last season-plus, outscoring opponents by 5.9 points on average in that spot. Of course, these two teams met in the season-opener with the Wizards rolling to a 98-83 victory. Washington has now taken consecutive meetings against the Raptors after an extended run of futility in the series. While the Raps have a rather thin margin of error in my opinion, the Wiz have shown the ability to win in a variety of ways. This past Saturday they prevailed in overtime against the Celtics despite shooting a woeful 36.5% in the game. Last week they beat the Hawks here at home even with Atlanta shooting a scorching 54.5% from the field. As for the Raps, they've only managed to outscore the opposition by a combined 21 points during their current four-game winning streak. They've shot better than 48% from the field just once this season and needed to knock down every shot in that game as they won by just a single point, at home no less, against the lowly Magic. Here, we'll play against Toronto supported by a situation that has gone 74-39 ATS in which we fade underdog sides coming off consecutive outright underdog wins playing for the sixth time (or more) in the last 10 days. That situation has gone 10-3 ATS over the last three seasons. Take Washington (10*). |
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11-02-21 | Rockets v. Lakers OVER 217 | Top | 117-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair after these two teams were involved in exactly the opposite type of contest two nights ago (the Lakers won that game 95-85). Credit the Lakers for stepping up defensively after a rough stretch earlier in the season. We used their early high-scoring results to our advantage last Friday night as we cashed the 'under' in their victory over the Cavaliers. I'm still not sold on the Lakers being an elite defensive team, however, while on the flip side we know they have the offensive talent to go off on any given night and this is certainly a favorable matchup against the Rockets. Speaking of elite defensive teams, Houston won't be mistaken for one any time soon. They know they're going to need to score a lot more than they did on Sunday in order to take something away from this two-game set in Los Angeles. That's because they're certainly not likely to hold the Lakers to sub-41% shooting again on Tuesday. Keep in mind, just two games back Houston allowed 122 points on better than 48% shooting against the Jazz, at home no less. Here, we find the 'over' having gone 12-3 with the Rockets playing on the road off a road loss going back to last season, resulting in an average total of 236.5 points in that spot. Meanwhile, the Lakers have seen an average total of 223 points after consecutive home wins going back to last season (10-game sample size). Finally, I'll note that while Sunday's matchup was a bit of a slog, three meetings between these two teams last season totaled 222, 217 and 246 points (that was the lone matchup here in Los Angeles). Take the over (10*). |
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11-01-21 | Bulls v. Celtics OVER 216.5 | 128-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'over' between Chicago and Boston at 7:40 pm et on Monday. It's early in the season but this is a key Atlantic Division showdown between the Bulls and Celtics. I believe the first half total will prove too low as both teams look to get off to quick starts on Monday night. Note that the Bulls have got off to plenty of fast starts offensively this season, scoring 65, 54, 61, 51 and 54 points in the first half over their last five games. Meanwhile, the Celtics had put up 53, 68 and 52 points in the first half in their last three contests before being held to only 47 points in the back half of a home-and-home set with the Wizards on Saturday. Poor starts defensively have been problematic for the C's this season as they check in giving up 56.2 points on average in the first half through their first six games. I think both teams will come into this game knowing they're going to need to put up a lot of points to secure a win. I do respect both head coaches and feel that the necessary defensive adjustments could be made at halftime, however, so we'll play the first half 'over' the total only in this one. Take the first half over (8*). |
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11-01-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -5.5 | 111-118 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta moneyline over Washington at 7:30 pm et on Monday. While the Wizards are off to a blazing 5-1 start to the season I look for them to get tripped up by the Hawks on Monday night. Atlanta is coming off consecutive losses but both of those were on the road, including a 122-111 setback against the same Wizards it will face on Monday. Here we'll note that favorites priced between -165 and -500 revenging a same-season loss against an opponent that are coming off a 20-point loss suffered on the road, as is the case with the Hawks, have gone 26-1 SU over the last five seasons. Atlanta was never really competitive in Saturday's blowout loss in Philadelphia, perhaps the product of playing a third road game in four nights at this early stage of the season when conditioning, or lack thereof, can be an issue. This is one of those difficult one-game trips for the Wizards before they return home to play their next three games. Off a double-overtime win over the Celtics on Saturday this is a classic letdown spot. Atlanta has won four straight home meetings with Washington. To find the last Wizards victory here in Atlanta you would have to go back to December of 2018. Take Atlanta moneyline (6*). |
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11-01-21 | Bulls v. Celtics -1 | Top | 128-114 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Monday. It's still very early in the season but the Celtics find themselves in the Atlantic Division basement. Needless to say, this is a big game as they look to snap a two-game skid at home against the division-rival Bulls. Note that the C's also opened the season with consecutive losses but responded with a double-digit victory in Houston (without Jaylen Brown) in their next game (we won with Boston in that game). Here, they'll face the Bulls with double-revenge after dropping their last two matchups with Chicago last season. You would have to go back to 2017 to find the last time they lost back-to-back meetings with the Bulls. The next time they faced them they delivered a 17-point beatdown. Here, we'll back Boston noting that it has gone 23-10 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS losses over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 7.9 points on average in that situation. Take Boston (10*). |
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10-31-21 | Pistons v. Nets OVER 214 | 91-117 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. The Nets have seen all six of their games stay 'under' the total this season but I look for that trend to reverse on Sunday. Detroit is coming off three consecutive games scoring over 100 points despite shooting 44% or worse in all three contests. The Nets got into a bit of a slog against the struggling Pacers last time out but I believe the Pistons will be more easily baited into a high-scoring affair here. Like Detroit, Brooklyn hasn't been shooting particularly well but this looks like a fine spot to improve on their shooting percentage and pad their offensive starts noting that the Pistons have allowed two of their last three opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field, allowing 122, 110 and 103 points in the process. Note that the 'over' has gone 29-15 with the Nets coming off four or five ATS losses in their last six games over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 231 points. Also note that two of three meetings between these two teams last season reached at least 224 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-30-21 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 216.5 | 94-122 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Saturday. We've seen this total drop, likely due in part to the questionable tag on Joel Embiid as he deals with a nagging knee injury. Regardless whether the 76ers big man plays or not, I like this one to go 'over' the total. Note that the Hawks will be playing their third road game in the last five nights. The 'over' has cashed at a 13-2 clip in that same situation over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 231.9 points scored. The 76ers are coming off a low-scoring win over the Pistons. They didn't play at a fast pace in that game but probably knew they didn't have to against a subpar Detroit offense. Here, I think we'll see the Sixers make a more concerted effort to get up and down the floor and keep pace as the Hawks are fully capable of going off offensively. Note that the 76ers have averaged 114.8 points when coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 220.1 points (45-game sample size). The last four meetings between these two teams did stay 'under' the total but that was during their seven-game playoff series last June. Two of the first three contests in that series had gone 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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10-29-21 | Cavs v. Lakers UNDER 220 | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday. The Lakers are coming off three straight exceptionally high-scoring games but I like the 'catalyst for change' angle here as they return home to host the upstart Cavs on Friday night. Cleveland has reeled off three straight wins including two in a row to open its current road trip and it has done it by playing tough defense and controlling the tempo on offense. Only four teams have had fewer possessions per game than the Cavs this season. The formula has been working so I don't see them changing anything on Friday night. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-3 with the Cavs coming off a game where both teams scored 105 points or less over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 201.0 points. Meanwhile, the Lakers check in with the 'under' having gone 15-2 the last 17 times they've come off a stretch that saw them lose four of their last five games ATS, as is the case here, good for an average total of just 206.4 points. They're still dealing with a number of key injuries and regardless who suits up on Friday night, I expect them to make an effort to step up their game defensively after that second half collapse in Oklahoma City two nights ago. The last time these two teams met the Lakers cruised to a 100-86 win here in Los Angeles last March with that game staying 'under' the total by 20 points. Look for this total to prove too high as well. Take the under (8*). |
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10-29-21 | Kings v. Pelicans OVER 220 | 113-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I really do feel this game has 'track meet potential' even though it isn't being priced as such. That's due in large part to the fact that the 'under' has gone a perfect 3-0 in each of these teams last three games. I expect that trend to reverse on Friday, however. Credit the Kings for scoring more than 100 points in all four games this season as they've faced an absolutely brutal schedule, going up against Portland, Utah, Golden State and Phoenix. They haven't shot the ball particularly well but that's been a product of the level of opposition they've faced more than anything else. Here, they catch a Pelicans defense that is in line for some considerable defensive regression after holding three straight opponents to 41.7% or worse shooting. New Orleans has gotten off to an uneven start offensively but the signs of a breakout are there. Last time out against Atlanta the Pelicans scored 33 points in the first quarter, building a 14-point lead, but then got complacent and ultimately faded in the second half in a 102-99 loss (we did win with the Pelicans plus the points in that one but missed with the 'over'). Here, they face a Kings squad that has allowed at least 107 points in all four games this season. Note that the 'over' has gone 22-11 with the Pelicans having lost two of their last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 230.5 points. All three of last year's meetings between these two teams were high-scoring, totaling 251, 227 and 227 points. Of course, the Pelicans don't have the services of Zion Williamson right now, but they're no slouches offensively with the additions of Jonas Valanciunas and Devonte' Graham. Take the over (9*). |
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10-28-21 | Jazz v. Rockets OVER 220.5 | 122-91 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We won by the narrowest of margins with the 'over' in the Rockets last game as they fell by a 116-106 score in Dallas (some likely 'pushed' as the total ended up closing at 222). That one was set up well for a high-scoring result but a low-scoring fourth quarter ended up keeping the final score in a reasonable range, which has allowed us to step in and play the 'over' again on Thursday at an even more favorable number as the Rockets return home to host the Jazz. Houston isn't going to win many defensive slugfests this season. This young Houston squad is going to have to come up with something special offensively in order to outgun a superior Jazz squad on Thursday. While the Rockets have benefited from facing some teams that have yet to get rolling this season in the Thunder, Celtics and Mavs (they were rolled by the T'Wolves who have admittedly been playing well in their other contest), here they'll run into a Utah team that is coming off its best offensive performance of the season, putting up 122 points on just shy of 52% shooting against Denver two nights ago (we won with the 'over' in that game). The Jazz had little trouble running it up against the Rockets last season, scoring 114, 112 and 124 points in three meetings. The Rockets on the other hand were held under 100 points in two of those three matchups. I believe they're a better team this year, however. They've knocked down better than 47% of their field goal attempts in two previous home games this season and I think catching the Jazz 'fat and happy' off three consecutive lopsided wins to open the campaign is a good thing. Note that Utah did allow Denver to shoot 50.6% from the field on Tuesday. The 'over' is 32-17 with the Jazz coming off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last 2+ seasons with that situation producing an average total of 227.6 points. Meanwhile, the Rockets check in averaging 109.9 points when playing at home off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 226.9 points in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
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10-27-21 | Cavs v. Clippers -8 | 92-79 | Loss | -101 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Cleveland at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Cavaliers stunned the Nuggets in Denver on Monday, notching their second straight win to even their record at 2-2 on the season. That's actually a better record than that of the Clippers, who check into this one sitting at 1-2. Los Angeles is, however, coming off its first victory and it was an impressive one as it rolled to a 30-point rout of the Blazers on Monday. I like the Clips to keep the good vibes going for at least one more game on Wednesday. The Cavs are off to a fine start but they're still playing with a very slim margin for error as far as I'm concerned. Keep in mind, in their first two games this season - both losses - they shot better than 50% from the field, yet still fell by double-digit margins. In their last two contests they benefited from off shooting nights from their opponents with the Hawks and Nuggets knocking down just 38.4% and 40.7% of their shots, respectively. The Clippers dropped their first two games but both of those were tough, on the road against Golden State and at home against Memphis. They were competitive in both of those games, losing by just two and six points. Note that the Cavs are a woeful 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games against Pacific Division opponents, outscored by an average margin of 18.6 points in those contests. Despite Monday's victory, they're still just 10-25 ATS in their last 35 games as a road underdog, outscored by 10.8 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Clips have outscored the opposition by an average margin of 14.7 points in their last eight home games against Central Division opponents. They won by 17 points as nine-point favorites the last time they faced the Cavs right here in L.A. last February. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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10-27-21 | Pacers v. Raptors OVER 218.5 | Top | 100-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We missed by a bucket with the 'over' in the Pacers most recent game - a double-digit home loss to the Bucks on Monday. A 41-point fourth quarter cost us in that one as the Pacers couldn't get anything going in their attempt to rally late. The 'under' has now cashed in Indiana's last two games, but I don't think that's a sustainable trend. Here, I expect a strong bounce-back performance from the Pacers, and that should lend itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' has gone 19-9 the last 28 times the Pacers have come off an 'under' result, leading to an average total of 233.1 points scored. Better still, the 'over' is 17-6 with Indiana coming off a home loss over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 237.6 points. The Raptors might be in for a long season and certainly aren't going to set the league on fire with their offense, but I do think they'll be taking a step down in class against a Pacers team that doesn't play hard-nosed defense, certainly after going up against a strong defensive team like the Bulls last time out. Note that Indiana gave up 123 and 135 points in its two previous road games against Charlotte and Washington this season. The Raptors did manage to score 108 points on better than 48% shooting in a relatively slow-paced game against the Bulls last time out. Here, we can expect them to be baited into an up-tempo affair against a Pacers squad that has hoisted up 90+ field goal attempts in all four games. Finally, I'll note that the last time these two teams met last May we saw 238 points scored. The Raptors aren't the same team now but we're also dealing with a considerably lower total. Take the over (10*). |
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10-27-21 | Hawks v. Pelicans +6 | Top | 102-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Hawks have certainly had the Pelicans number, taking five straight meetings in this series going back to the start of 2018, including both matchups (in blowout fashion) last season. I believe the Pelicans are well-positioned to put up a fight on Wednesday, however, as they return home after posting their first victory of the season in Minnesota on Monday. The Hawks are coming off a win and cover against the lowly Pistons on Monday but this is a team that has shown a fairly strong home-road dichotomy over the years. Note that while they check in a perfect 2-0 at home this season they dropped their lone road game, falling by a 101-95 score in Cleveland. In fact, they're just 32-48 ATS on the road over the last 2+ seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.8 points. The Pelicans on the other hand are in one of their most favorable spots here, and that's playing at home off an outright underdog victory, having outscored the opposition by an average margin of 5.7 points while averaging a whopping 123.9 points in that situation over the last 2+ seasons (13-game sample size). We've also seen them outscore the opposition by 4.2 points on average after posting consecutive ATS wins over the last 2+ seasons (14-game sample size). New Orleans is obviously still without Zion Williamson but that's certainly been factored into the line (note that the Pelicans were +1.5 the last time they hosted the Hawks and only +3.5 the last time they played in Atlanta - both games were played last April). Take New Orleans (10*). |
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10-26-21 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 218 | 110-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Utah at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. Most are down on the Nuggets after their embarrassing home loss against the Cavaliers last night. I'm willing to take a flyer on the Denver offense here, however, noting that the 'over' is 11-2 the last 13 times the Nuggets have come off a home loss, averaging 119.2 points on average in that spot with an average total of 227.1 points scored. Meanwhile, the Jazz have posted a 49-33 o/u record when coming off an ATS win over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 224.9 points scored. Better still, the 'over' is 31-17 the last 48 times the Jazz have come off consecutive ATS wins, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 227.5 points. This total has moved too low due to early season results. Take the over (8*). |
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10-26-21 | Rockets v. Mavs OVER 220.5 | Top | 106-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams have posted nothing but 'under' results through three and two games respectively this season but we do have a 'catalyst for change' at work here as the Mavs play their first home game of the season. Dallas is in one of our favorite 'over'-friendly situations here, noting that the 'over' has gone 54-36 with the Mavs coming off a win over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 227.2 points scored. Better still, the 'over' checks in 29-15 with the Mavs coming off a game in which they allowed 105 points or less over the same stretch, producing a total of 229.2 points on average. As for the Rockets, they were stymied by a desperate Celtics squad (that checked in 0-2 on the season) last time out, held to 97 points in a 10-point loss (we won with Boston in that game). Here, I expect them to fare better offensively, noting that the Mavs have allowed 115 points on average when returning home off a road win over the last 2+ seasons. After shooting a miserable 33.3% and 41.8% in their first two games, look for the Mavs to 'get right' offensively in this one while the Rockets go along for the ride in what will be a higher-scoring game than most are expecting. Take the over (10*). |
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10-25-21 | Bucks v. Pacers OVER 229 | 119-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We've seen this total drop since opening and I believe it's a knee-jerk reaction after the Pacers were involved in a low-scoring 102-91 victory over the Heat on Saturday. Keep in mind, Indiana's first two games this season totaled 245 and 269 points. In three meetings between the Bucks and Pacers last season we saw 240, 253 and 275 total points. When playing a Bucks 'over', we generally like to do so when they're coming off a win, noting that situation has produced a 37-23 o/u record going back to last season, good for an average total of 234.4 points scored. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 19-8 with the Pacers coming off an 'under' result going back to last season, producing an average total of 233.3 points in that spot. Better still, the 'over' has gone 26-11 with the Pacers playing consecutive home games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 235.8 points. Take the over (8*). |
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10-24-21 | Celtics -5 v. Rockets | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Houston at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Celtics are off to an 0-2 start and coming off an ugly 115-83 home loss against the Raptors on Friday night. Meanwhile the Rockets have split their first two games and are fresh off a 124-91 home win over the Thunder on Friday. Here, we find the Celtics in a situation that has gone 36-13 ATS over the last five seasons, as they come off an upset loss as a favorite facing an opponent that's coming off a home win in which it scored 110+ points. Teams in that situation have outscored opponents by 13.1 points on average over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Celtics are 22-10 ATS after dropping two or more straight games ATS over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 7.9 points on average in that spot. Last year, the Celtics were favored by 11 points in their lone stop in Houston and won by 27. Take Boston (8*). |
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10-22-21 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 220.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this spot sets up as a relatively low-scoring game between the Spurs and Nuggets on Friday night. San Antonio exploded for 123 points in its season-opener but that was at home against the lowly Magic - likely to be one of the worst defensive teams in the league. San Antonio should find the going much tougher as it hits the road to face the Nuggets on Friday. Denver manhandled the defending Western Conference champion Suns in Phoenix two nights ago, cruising to a 110-98 win. Both the Spurs and Nuggets shot 50% or better from the field in their respective openers but repeating that performance will be tough two nights later. Lost in those impressive offensive performances was the fact that both teams played solid defense, holding the opposition to 40.7% and 41.4% shooting, respectively. The Spurs fall into one of my preferred 'under' systems that has cashed at a 25-6 clip over the last five seasons with just shy of 70% of those wins coming by seven points or more. That system involves playing the 'under' in a game where a losing team from the previous season comes off a home win in which it scored 110+ points, as is the case with San Antonio here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-21-21 | Bucks v. Heat +2.5 | Top | 95-137 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Heat had a productive preseason, going 5-1 and getting some new faces acclimated into the lineup while also wisely managing the minutes of all of its key contributors. I look for Miami to get the new season off to a positive start against the defending champion Bucks on Thursday. Milwaukee is of course already 1-0 on the season after an impressive win over the Nets on Tuesday. The win didn't come without a price, however, as Jrue Holliday did suffer a heel injury in the game. He is expected to play on Thursday but it's notable as the Bucks are already dealing with a number of banged-up players (Bobby Portis, Rodney Hood and Donte DiVincenzo are all sidelined). Here, we'll back the Heat noting that despite all of their ups and downs in recent years, they have managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 3.9 points here at home over the last couple of seasons. I expect them to bring plenty of energy to their home-opener on Thursday and I think they have the talent to back it up. Take Miami (10*). |
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10-20-21 | Celtics v. Knicks -2 | Top | 134-138 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Knicks made massive progress last season, reaching the playoffs before being dumped unceremoniously at the hands of the Atlanta Hawks. I think we'll see New York play with an even bigger chip on its shoulder this season as it looks to take care of unfinished business. Remember, the Knicks gave the Celtics all they could handle and then some last season, winning two of three meetings including a 30-point rout early in the campaign, in Boston no less. The Celtics were never really able to find their footing last season and while I do expect them to fare better here in 2021-22, a slow start could once again be in the cards. The C's are already dealing with Covid-19 quarantine issues as they'll be without Al Horford for this game while Jaylen Brown isn't certain to play but likely will be able to go. The Knicks of course made a big splash in the offseason by acquiring former Celtic Kemba Walker. Walker is no stranger to the Garden from his days with UConn in the Big East. I love the addition of Walker as his scoring should relieve some of the pressure on veteran Derrick Rose who was asked to take on a prominent role over the course of last season. If Walker can elevate the play of the rest of the Knicks young core, the sky really is the limit this season. Here, we'll back the Knicks noting that they've thrived in similar situations as a short home favorite, going 26-7 ATS and outscoring opponents by 6.0 points on average when priced between +3 and -3 over the last season-plus. Better still, that record is 18-3 ATS when only factoring in home games, with New York outscoring opponents by 7.0 points on average. Take New York (10*). |
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10-19-21 | Warriors v. Lakers OVER 227 | Top | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
NBA TV Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We'll go the contrarian route here and back the 'under' with this total having dropped several points since opening. Given the way last season played out for both of these teams it's no real surprise to see the total move in that direction. There are bettors that are just learning that Klay Thompson, while set to return this season, won't be ready for the start of the campaign. Still, as the relatively short pointspread indicates, I believe the Warriors can keep this game competitive. The Lakers had their share of struggles defending their title last season, with Lebron James and Anthony Davis in and out of the lineup due to injuries and a somewhat lacking supporting cast. Now we're talking about a different Lakers squad that I believe we'll be a lot more fun to watch with the likes of Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony among those joining the fold. I'm not convinced either of these teams will be ready to come out playing hard-nosed defense. Note that the Lakers allowed at least 111 points in all six preseason contests - all losses. Meanwhile, the Warriors put up 111 points or more in all five preseason games, going undefeated along the way. Take the over (10*). |
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07-20-21 | Suns +5 v. Bucks | 98-105 | Loss | -107 | 37 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Milwaukee at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. The wheels have inexplicably fallen off for the Suns as they've dropped three straight games to relinquish control of this series and now face the prospect of needing a road win to force a seventh and deciding game. While I'm not going to call for the outright victory, I do expect the Suns to give the Bucks all they can handle and at the very least take this one right down to the wire. Note that Phoenix checks in 11-2 ATS when playing on the road with triple revenge over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 10 points in that situation. Long ATS losing streaks have been few and far between this season, noting that the Suns have gone 24-11 ATS off an ATS loss, outscoring the opposition by 7.6 points on average in that spot. Milwaukee has gone a miserable 5-14 ATS after winning three of its last four games ATS this season, outscored by an average margin of 3.7 points in that situation. Off three or more consecutive wins, the Bucks have gone 6-17 ATS this season, outscoring opponents by a narrow average margin of 1.0 point in that spot. We've seen quite a pendulum swing in this series with 'Suns in four' a common refrain after Phoenix posted consecutive lopsided wins to open the series before the Bucks reeled off three straight victories. Now everyone is quick to bury the Suns, assuming they're incapable of winning a game in Milwaukee. I simply feel a letdown could be in order for the Bucks here after they shot a blistering 51.3% and 55.2% in the last two games - noting that they've shot better than 50% from the field in consecutive games only twice previously this season, never able to do so in three straight contests. The door is still open a crack for a Suns squad that has proven more than capable of winning on the road this season, having gone 30-16 SU and 25-19-2 ATS. We'll grab all the points we can get with the underdog Suns here. Take Phoenix (8*). |
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07-20-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 222 | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 37 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Milwaukee at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. We missed badly with the 'under' in Game 5 of this series on Saturday as neither team could miss in a high-scoring track meet. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however, as the Suns face the prospect of watching the Bucks hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy in Milwaukee. Note that the Bucks have now shot better than 50% in consecutive games - only the third time they've accomplished that feat this season. In both previous occurrences they failed to make it three straight games shooting north of 50%, with the 'under' cashing in both of those contests. Despite losing both games, the Suns have also shot better than 50% from the field in consecutive games. The Bucks certainly haven't been at their best defensively in this series but with a chance to win a championship at home on Tuesday night I would expect to see them rise to the occasion at that end of the floor, noting that they've allowed 2.1 points per game less than their season average and limited opponents to 44.9% shooting at home this season. Milwaukee is giving up just 105.5 points per game in the playoffs and 107 points per contest when attempting to close out a series. Phoenix had actually done a solid job defensively in this series, apart from allowing far too many free throws in the two games played here in Milwaukee, prior to getting lit up in Game 5 on Saturday. Perhaps building a 16-point first quarter lead was the worst thing that could have happened to the Suns as odd as it sounds, as complacency seemed to set in early in the second quarter and they were never able to regain their footing the rest of the way. The Suns still have a solid track record defensively in these playoffs, having allowed 104.5 points per game on 44% shooting. After allowing a series-high 21 fast break points on Saturday, look for them to make a concerted effort to slow the pace and turn this into more of a street fight on Tuesday night. Take the under (8*). |
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07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns UNDER 219 | Top | 123-119 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. Now that this series is tied up at two games apiece, this is obviously a critical Game 5 matchup between the Bucks and Suns in Phoenix on Saturday night. Despite the fact that we're dealing with non-conference foes, this will now be the seventh matchup between these two teams this season. As I've said many times previously, familiarity generally lends itself to tighter, lower-scoring basketball (relatively speaking) and I believe we're in for that type of affair on Saturday night in the desert. Milwaukee actually allowed Phoenix to shoot 51.3% from the field in Game 4. You would have to go all the way back to February 10th and 12th to find the last time the Bucks allowed north of 50% shooting in consecutive games this season so I expect them to bounce back at the defensive end of the floor here. Devin Booker of course went off for 42 points last time out but it's worth noting the two previous times he scored 40 points or more in these playoffs, he followed it up with 21 and 20-point efforts in his next game. The Bucks managed to score 120 and 109 points in their two home victories but that was thanks in large part to a considerable free throw disparity (they got to the free throw line 55 times in those two games), something they're not likely to experience again with the scene shifting back to Phoenix for Game 5. While the Suns offense has been prolific this season, it's been their defense that has really shone here at home, allowing just 106.6 points per game. In these playoffs they've allowed only 103.6 points per game with their games averaging a total of 212.6 points. Bucks playoff games have averaged 214.9 total points. Look for this one to stay 'under' the total on Saturday night. Take the under (10*). |
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07-14-21 | Suns +4 v. Bucks | Top | 103-109 | Loss | -109 | 59 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Milwaukee at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Bucks in Game 3 of this series on Sunday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Suns as they look to grab a 3-1 stranglehold in this series on Wednesday night. Sunday's result could be chalked up as an anomaly as Phoenix had previously gone a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS when playing on two or more days' rest in these playoffs. It actually got off to a terrific start in that contest but ultimately couldn't match the Bucks desperation and fell behind by 20+ points entering the fourth quarter. The fact that Frank Kaminsky saw 13 minutes of playing time in that game tells you all you need to know about how that one played out. Here, we can expect the Suns to make the necessary defensive adjustments after Giannis Antetokounmpo went off for 41 points on 14-of-23 shooting (13-of-17 at the free throw line) in Game 3. It was just a solid all-around bounce-back game for the Bucks on Sunday with Jrue Holliday finally getting going again as well, knocking down 8-of-14 shots for 21 points. In the loss, Devin Booker shot a miserable 3-of-14 for 10 points for the Suns. We saw a similarly bad performance from him in Game 3 against the Clippers last round - a game Phoenix lost by 14 points. He responded by scoring 25 points in the next game, which the Suns won by an 84-80 score. In fact, the Suns are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in these playoffs after Booker is held to less than 20 points, winning those next games by an average margin of 14 points. Note that Phoenix checks in an incredible 9-1 ATS when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 12 points in that situation. The Suns have shot below 50% in three straight games to open this series. The last time they shot below that mark in three consecutive games they exploded with a 130-point outburst on 56.4% shooting on the road in Game 6 against the Clippers last round. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks -177 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Moneyline Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee moneyline over Phoenix at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. There's obviously plenty of 'Suns in four' talk entering Game 3 of this series on Sunday night in Milwaukee. I'm not convinced it's going to be that straight-forward for Phoenix, however. Note that the Bucks check in 8-1 straight-up when playing at home after losing two of their last three games this season, outscoring opponents by 15.6 points per game in that situation. They're also 11-3 SU when revenging a double-digit road loss over the last two seasons and an impressive 27-7 SU when playing at home after an ATS loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 12.2 points in that spot. Phoenix has gotten incredible offensive production from all over the court in the first two games of this series. Keep in mind, they do score and allow 1.5 points per game less and more, respectively, than their season average on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Bucks have barely managed to play above .500 basketball on the road this season but check in 22 games over .500 here at home, where they allow nearly two points per game less than their season average. Despite how the first two games in this series have gone, the Bucks are still outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.3 points in these playoffs. They're obviously in desperate need of a victory to give themselves any sort of chance in this series and I look for them to come up with just that on Sunday night. Take Milwaukee moneyline (10*). |
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07-08-21 | Bucks v. Suns UNDER 220 | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Suns in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in Game 2 on Thursday. We saw some nerves early on in Game 1 but once the two teams settled down the offenses started flowing and we didn't see a great deal of tough defensive play. I expect a different story to unfold in Game 2. Generally, I like to play Bucks 'overs' when they come off a win, and 'unders' when they follow a loss. The trends bear it out as Milwaukee has posted an 11-20 o/u record when coming off a loss this season. Better still, the 'under' has gone 12-3 when the Bucks come off three consecutive 'over' results this season, as is the case here. Keep in mind, the 'under' is still 10-7-1 in all Bucks playoff games with an average total of just 214.1 points scored. The 'under' owns a slight 9-8 edge in Suns playoff games with those contests totaling an average of only 211.5 points. While Phoenix won Game 1 there are still adjustments for it to make here after Milwaukee shot 44% from beyond the arc, knocking down 16 three-pointers in the series-opener. Meanwhile, we should see some regression from the Suns in a couple of key areas here after Chris Paul poured in 32 points on 12-of-19 shooting and DeAndre Ayton put up 22 points on 8-of-10 shooting on Tuesday night. Note that it was only the fourth time in these playoffs that CP3 scored more than 22 points while Ayton averages just 14.4 points per game on 62.6% shooting this season. The Bucks obviously need to make some adjustments here and I'm confident they will noting that they allow just 104.5 points per game on 44.3% shooting in these playoffs. Take the under (10*). |
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07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns -6 | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Milwaukee at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Suns have actually dropped the cash in each of their last two home games which is notable as they've lost three consecutive home games ATS only once this entire season, that coming way back in January when they just weren't playing good basketball, mired in a 3-7 stretch. Here, I look for the well-rested Suns to come up with a big Finals-opening performance, regardless whether the Bucks have the services of Giannis Antetokounmpo or not. Milwaukee has of course been a different team on the road compared to at home this season. You wouldn't know it based on its most recent dominant performance, closing out the Hawks in Atlanta in blowout fashion on Saturday. Note that the Bucks are still just 19-26 ATS on the road this season where they allow just shy of 114 points per game. The Suns on the other hand, have gone 28-16 ATS on their home floor, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 8.9 points. Note that the Bucks are just 5-13 ATS after winning three of their last four games ATS this season, outscored by an average margin of 3.2 points in that situation. They're also a miserable 8-23 ATS after winning six or seven of their last eight games this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Phoenix owns an incredible 16-3 ATS record as a home favorite of six points or less this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 11.8 points in that spot. When coming off a double-digit win over a division opponent (as is the case here after their blowout victory over the Clippers last time out), the Suns have gone a perfect 7-0 ATS this season, outscoring opponents by 14.2 points on average. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 216.5 | 118-107 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Atlanta at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. These two teams were involved in a high-scoring Game 5 on Thursday night, ending a streak of three straight 'under' results in the series. I'm not anticipating another track meet here, however, as the Hawks return home to face elimination on Saturday night. We can expect Atlanta to make the necessary adjustments after a poor defensive showing on Thursday, as it allowed Milwaukee to shoot better than 50% from the field. Giannis isn't expected back for the Bucks and while Trae Young may or may not be able to return for the Hawks, I like this play regardless. Note that the 'under' has gone 29-16 with the Bucks playing on the road off an 'over' result over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the 'under' has cashed at a 17-7 clip with the Hawks playing the role of home favorite this season. Off Thursday's relatively lopsided game, I'm expecting a more tightly-contested affair here on Saturday and I believe that lends itself to a lower-scoring result, noting that Bucks playoff games have averaged just 212.8 total points while Hawks postseason games have resulted in an average total of 213.4 points. Take the under (10*). |
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