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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-15-17 | Steelers v. Chiefs OVER 44.5 | Top | 18-16 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 19 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Pittsburgh and Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Kansas City on Sunday night. We missed the mark with the ‘over’ in the Steelers blowout win over the Dolphins last Sunday. That was a tough roll of the dice as there were plenty of opportunities to send that one ‘over’ the number but turnovers essentially did us in. I expect a different story to unfold this week as the Steelers travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs. This total has been dropping and it likely has a lot to do with the weather forecast, which is calling for cold temperatures and some precipitation. I’m not all that concerned about that. I think the key here is that the Chiefs offense is being underrated by the betting marketplace – at least in my opinion. The emergence of the versatile Tyreek Hill down the stretch made a big difference for this group and with Jeremy Maclin back to full strength as well, this is suddenly a team that doesn’t have to rely on its defense and ground game to grind out victories. The Steelers defense looked good against the Dolphins last week but let’s not get carried away as they were facing the likes of Matt Moore at quarterback. I do expect Pittsburgh to stick around in this game thanks to its own explosive offense, even if Big Ben isn’t 100% healthy. This is the first time Pittsburgh has had both Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell healthy for the playoffs, and their presence was certainly felt last week, and should be again here. Take the over (10*). |
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01-15-17 | Rockets v. Nets UNDER 232 | 137-112 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Brooklyn at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Brooklyn on Sunday evening. I just don't believe that we'll see both offenses 'show up', or at least bust out in this matchup. The Rockets are off surprising back-to-back losses. They're quite simply giving up too many points right now while their offense has faced some sudden resistance following an incredible run. Meanwhile, the Nets have lost nine games in a row, scoring over 100 points only three times over that stretch. They allowed a whoppoing 132 points in their last game in Toronto on Friday night. I don't think they'll be all that interested in another track meet against Houston, knowing full well they won't be able to keep up for four quarters. Take the under (10*). |
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01-14-17 | Texans v. Patriots UNDER 44.5 | 16-34 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Houston and New England at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Foxborough on Saturday night. This play essentially comes down to the fact that I don’t believe the Texans are capable of producing much offense at all in this matchup. We did cash a ticket with the ‘over’ in their rout of the banged-up Raiders last week, and it had everything to do with a big first half from the Houston offense. But there’s no question it was the play of the defense that really set up the offense early on. While the big lead had something to do with it, the fact is, QB Brock Osweiler and the offense did very little in the second half. I like the Texans defense, but I don’t like their offense at all, plain and simple. The Patriots are known for their offense of course, and while I do expect them to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard on Saturday night, I’m not sure it will be enough to topple this total. There’s no reason for New England to go over the top in terms of running up the score, not here in the Divisional Round. The Texans defense will at least offer some resistance and I don’t see Bill Bellichick showing up Bill O’Brien – no different than we saw in the regular season meeting between these two teams – a game that could have been even more lopsided than it was – even without Tom Brady at the Pats’ disposal (note that we cashed a ticket on the ‘under’ in that game). Take the under (10*). |
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01-14-17 | Wild v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in Dallas on Saturday night. The Wild are coming off a 7-1 rout of the Canadiens on Thursday night. The 'over' is now 7-1-1 in their last nine contests. Note that the 'under' has cashed in both previous meetings this season. I don't believe we'll see a total of 5.5 in the next matchup. The Stars have seen the 'over' cash in four of their last five games. They scored five goals in a win over the Red Wings on home ice last time out. They'll face more resistance against the Wild, however. Perhaps the best news for Dallas right now is that it is finally getting some solid goaltending. That also lends itself to the 'under' in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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01-14-17 | Seahawks v. Falcons OVER 51.5 | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Seattle and Atlanta at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Atlanta on Saturday afternoon. We missed the mark with the ‘over’ in the Seahawks Wild Card victory over Detroit last week. The Seahawks offense showed up in that one but the Lions’ did not – it really was as simple as that. There was nothing particularly special about the Seattle defense on that night – the Lions simply didn’t pose any sort of challenge, with QB Matt Stafford struggling through a hand injury. This time around, the Seahawks will face a much more formidable challenge against one of the best offensive teams in the league. I don’t expect the Falcons to show any rust despite the week off. This is a team that has produced offensively all season long with few exceptions. While the defense has held its own for stretches, I do believe that unit will be tested by a Seahawks offense that is more than capable of scoring points in bunches. Yes, Seattle’s offense has been inconsistent, but that’s had a lot to do with QB Russell Wilson playing at less than 100% healthy. He’s arguably as healthy as he’s been all season right now, and we saw glimpses of what the ‘Hawks are capable of last week. Take the over (10*). |
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01-13-17 | Jets v. Coyotes OVER 5.5 | 3-4 | Win | 113 | 24 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' in Glendale on Friday night. The Jets are without Patrik Laine but they've still managed to score six goals in his absence. They do have scoring depth and are capable of keeping it rolling offensively even without their rookie sniper. They should thrive in this matchup with the Coyotes, who have allowed eight goals in the last two meetings in this series. Arizona is dealing with a number of key injuries, but after the 'bye week' should be able to put forth a better effort than we've seen recently. The Jets aren't keeping pucks out of their net right now, opening the door for the 'Yotes to bust out offensively. I believe the oddsmakers have it right with this reasonably high total. Take the over (10*). |
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01-12-17 | Mavs v. Suns OVER 201.5 | 113-108 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in Phoenix on Thursday night. The concern here obviously is that the Mavs may not put up enough offense to help this total along. However, I do expect them to bounce back from a string of poor offensive showings during a three-game slide, noting that the Suns are giving up over 113 points per game at home this season. The oddsmakers have made an adjustment since the first meeting between these two teams, which came less than a week ago in Dallas. I simply feel they've made too much of an adjustment, especially when you consider the Suns are off a wild 120-116 losing effort against the Cavs. The last time these two teams hooked up in Phoenix they combined to score 206 points, with the Mavs contributing 111. I'm confident we'll see a higher-scoring affair than the oddsmakers are calling for here. Take the over (10*). |
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01-11-17 | Grizzlies v. Thunder OVER 204.5 | Top | 95-103 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Oklahoma City at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'over' in Oklahoma City on Wednesday night. Memphis is coming off a very low-scoring affair against Utah last time out but I expect a different story to unfold here. Note that while the Grizzlies are averaging over 102 points per game on the road this season, they're also giving up over 104. I believe they'll have a tough time handling the Thunder offense on Wednesday. Oklahoma City has won back-to-back games, scoring 121 and 109 points in the process. The Thunder are putting up over 110 points per game at home this season while giving up over 102 points per contest. OKC was a no show the last time these two teams met in December, scoring just 80 points in a 34-point rout. I certainly expect a better showing from the Thunder here and that lends itself to a high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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01-10-17 | Celtics v. Raptors OVER 218 | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Celtics have seen the 'over' cash in 10 straight games and I don't see Toronto being the setting where that streak comes to an end. Raptors head coach Dwane Casey admitted that his team's schedule may be catching up to it a little right now following a poor fourth quarter performance against the Rockets on Sunday. Simply put, the Raptors aren't stopping anyone defensively right now, and will have their hands full with a Celtics team that is rolling along - fresh off four straight wins. Of course, Toronto has been one of the best 'over' bets in the league this season, posting a 24-13 o/u mark. The first meeting between these two teams totaled only 195 points in Boston back in the second week of December. We're dealing with a much higher posted total this time around, but I believe it's warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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01-10-17 | Flyers v. Sabres UNDER 5.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Neither of these teams have been all that consistent offensively, in fact both have been lagging for the most part, even if the Sabres have shown some signs of life lately. It's been nearly two years since they last played 'over' a total of 5.5 here in Buffalo and I don't see it happening here. Philadelphia has been shutout twice and held to a single goal on three other occasions over its last 10 games. Meanwhile the Sabres are averaging just a shade over two goals per game on home ice. They found a big spark in the third period against the Jets on Saturday, but I don't see a lot of carry-over from that performance here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-09-17 | Thunder v. Bulls OVER 207 | 109-94 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Monday. Last year's two meetings in this series went 'under' the total and as a result we're dealing with a fairly reasonable number this time around. Of course, we've been on board with the 'over' in each of the Thunder's last three games - with all three playing 'over' the total. We also cashed with the 'over' in the Bulls last game - a 123-118 win over the Raptors in overtime on Saturday. Both teams are playing with confidence and both are capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard. Note that the Thunder are giving up over 108 points per game on the road this season, so that opens the door for a Bulls squad that is playing some of its best offensive basketball right now. As long as the Thunder have Russell Westbrook in the fold, they'll be pushing the pace. Take the over (10*). |
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01-08-17 | Giants v. Packers UNDER 45 | 13-38 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Green Bay at 4:40 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' at Lambeau Field on Sunday afternoon. I simply believe that this total will prove too high. The oddsmakers have made a pretty big adjustment to the total after we saw a closing number of 49 points in the lone regular season meeting between the Giants and Packers - a game that totaled just 39 points here in Green Bay back in October. The Giants defense shifted into another gear down the stretch and I expect that strong play to continue in this one, even with Aaron Rodgers playing some of his best football for the Packers. On the other side, this play is more about the Giants offense, and the inconsistency of that unit rather than the effectiveness of the Packers defense. There's reason to believe the Pack can contain the Giants offense, just as they did in that regular season matchup. Take the under (10*). |
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01-08-17 | Dolphins v. Steelers OVER 45.5 | Top | 12-30 | Loss | -102 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Pittsburgh at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon. Cold temperatures are in the forecast and that combined with the fact that the Dolphins are turning to backup QB Matt Moore is helping to keep this total in check. I believe it could be higher. Note that these two teams produced just 45 points in their regular season meeting in Florida. That one featured a closing total of 49.5 points. So the oddsmakers have made an adjustment here, I'm just not sure that it's warranted. The Dolphins ended the regular season with a thud, dropping a blowout decision against the Patriots. I do expect them to respond favorably on the offensive side of the football here, even with Moore at the helm. The Steelers don't tackle particularly well, and that opens the door for a Fins attack that does feature plenty of playmakers. On the flip side, I don't see the Fins defense slowing the Steelers three-headed monster on offense. For the first time, Pittsburgh has Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger all on the field for a playoff game. I don't believe they can be contained in this setting. The last meeting between these two teams here in Pittsburgh came back in 2013 and it totaled 62 points. Take the over (10*). |
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01-07-17 | Lions v. Seahawks OVER 43 | 6-26 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. This isn't the same Seahawks defense we're accustomed to seeing at this time of year. Sure, there were glimpses of the unit that has terrorized the league in recent years, but those glimpses were brief. While the Lions offense isn't likely to pose big problems for the Seahawks defense, it will do enough to help this total along. It's not as if the Lions haven't had a taste of playoff football. I expect a poised performance from Matt Stafford, aided by the veteran presence of guys like Golden Tate and Anquan Boldin. On the flip side, the Seahawks offense was explosive at times during the regular season, but also inconsistent. Russell Wilson and company did close things out on a positive note, scoring 53 points over their last six quarters of football. I like the matchup here against the Lions defense. We saw the Detroit 'D' wilt in the final two regular season games, perhaps worn down at the end of a long campaign in which it was asked to do an awful lot to keep games close and open the door for fourth quarter comebacks. Take the over (10*). |
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01-07-17 | Raptors v. Bulls OVER 207.5 | Top | 118-123 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The 'over' has cashed in the last seven meetings in this series, and I'm not sure the oddsmakers have made enough of an adjustment to the total here. The Raptors have seen the 'under' cash in their last two games, and six of their last nine overall, in fact. But they've still posted a 22-13 o/u mark this season. They're averaging just shy of 108 points per game while giving up 105 on the road. The Bulls are fresh off back-to-back big offensive performances, scoring 118 and 106 points in consecutive wins. Their home games are averaging just 200 points or so, but I expect them to get drawn into a higher-scoring affair here. Take the over (10*). |
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01-07-17 | Nuggets v. Thunder OVER 218.5 | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Oklahoma City at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' in Oklahoma City on Saturday night. We won with the 'over' in the Thunder's narrow loss in Houston on Thursday night and will go right back to the well here as they return home to host the Nuggets. Denver is quite simply one of the worst defensive teams in the league. The Nuggets will offer little resistance against the Thunder's up-tempo offense. Denver didn't put its best foot forward offensively last time out, scoring just 99 points in a home loss to the Spurs. I'm confident we'll see the Nuggets respond favorably against a weak Thunder defense here. The first meeting between these two teams this season was an overtime barn-burner that reached 261 total points. Expect another wild one on Saturday night. Take the over (10*). |
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01-07-17 | Raiders v. Texans OVER 36.5 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 44 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Houston at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. We've seen a major adjustment in the total here, at least compared to the regular season meeting between these two teams in Oakland. That game saw a closing total up around 45 points. Here we're looking at a number more than a touchdown lower. I'm not sure such a big move is warranted. Yes, the Raiders will be without QB Derek Carr. No, that doesn't mean they have no shot at winning this game, or putting points on the board. I think it's worth noting that we saw a similar scenario play out a couple of years ago when the Cardinals visited the Panthers in the playoffs, and were forced to turn to Ryan Lindley under center. Lindley was terrible in that game, but we still saw 43 total points in a 27-16 Panthers victory. Here, I believe both defenses are getting a little too much credit to be honest. The Raiders didn't record a single sack when the chips were down over the last two games of the regular season. Meanwhile, the Texans pass defense led the way all season long, but overachieved as far as I'm concerned. This is a game where the absence of J.J. Watt will be felt. Take the over (10*). |
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01-06-17 | Grizzlies v. Warriors OVER 215 | 128-119 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Golden State at 10:35 pm et on Friday. So here we go again. Scoring is up across the league with track meets becoming the norm. Now obviously the Grizzlies aren't a prime candidate to get involved in too many of those type of games, but you wouldn't know it by their recent results. At least one of the two teams has scored at least 112 points in each of their last seven contests. I'm not sure they'll be able to help themselves against the Warriors on Friday, noting that Memphis delivered a stunning 110-89 win as a 13-point underdog at home against Golden State in December. Of course, the Warriors are rolling along right now, winners of four games in a row - all coming at home. They're comfortable here at Oracle Arena, where they average well over 120 points per game. I don't expect the Grizzlies will be able to provide much resistance, even though they are getting healthier. Take the over (10*). |
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01-05-17 | Thunder v. Rockets OVER 225 | 116-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Houston at 8 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Thunder's 11-point loss in Charlotte last night and while playing on the second of back-to-back nights isn't ideal for OKC, I do expect it to do enough offensively to help this one along. I'm probably beginning to sound like a broken record but the fact remains, scoring is up in the NBA this season with track meets becoming the norm. I expect nothing different in this showdown of up-tempo offensive squads. The Rockets are coming off a relatively low-scoring victory over the Wizards but we should see a return to 'normal' on Thursday. The last meeting in this series producing just 201 total points on December 9th is helping to keep the total in check. Take the over (10*). |
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01-04-17 | Thunder v. Hornets OVER 209 | Top | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Charlotte at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. If you've followed my picks regularly this season, you may be sensing a theme. High-scoring games have been the norm in the NBA, and I'm anticipating another track meet on Wednesday night as the Thunder visit the Hornets. Oklahoma City has struggled in its last couple of road games, but should find some room to operate offensively in this one, noting that Charlotte has given up over 101 points per game at home this season and has seen the 'over' cash in four of its last five contests. The Thunder are giving up over 107 points per contest on the road, but do eclipse the century mark on average themselves. The 'under' cashed in both meetings between these two teams last season but they haven't matched up since. I expect a different story to unfold here. Take the over (10*). |
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01-02-17 | Nuggets v. Warriors OVER 227.5 | 119-127 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Golden State at 10:35 pm et on Monday. The NBA has been a high-scoring league this season. There's no denying that. And we've made plenty of money backing 'overs' along the way. The same logic applies Monday night in Oakland. The Nuggets are one of the best 'over' bets in the league, having posted a 22-10-1 o/u mark. They're coming off a wild 124-122 loss against the lowly 76ers at home on Friday. I don't see them slowing down the Warriors here. With that being said, I do believe Denver can keep pace much of the way. Despite their dominance, the Warriors are still giving up over 104 points per game at home. The first meeting between these two teams this season totaled 226 points. Expect an even higher-scoring affair on Monday. Take the over (10*). |
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01-02-17 | USC v. Penn State UNDER 60 | 52-49 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
CFB Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between USC and Penn State at 5 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in the Rose Bowl. Simply put, I believe this total is inflated based on Penn State's high-scoring results during the regular season, combined with the way USC closed out the regular campaign. USC put up big numbers offensively this season, but that was at the expense of a relatively weak Pac-12 field as far as I'm concerned. Meanwhile, Penn State surprisingly lit up the scoreboard on a weekly basis, but I can't help but think back to the Nittany Lions narrow 24-21 win over Ohio State earlier in the campaign. I expect this one to play out similarly. Both teams are known for their offense, but the two defenses also came up big time and time again over the course of the season. We're dealing with a lofty total here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-01-17 | Packers v. Lions UNDER 49.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Detroit at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. I believe this total will prove too high, despite the first meeting this season totaling 61 points. Obviously everything is on the line here, with the NFC North title hanging in the balance. The Packers lit up the scoreboard last Sunday, but that was against a Vikings squad that has already checked out on the season. Here, they'll face a much tougher challenge. Detroit was torched for 42 points on Monday night in Dallas but is a far better defensive team than it showed in that one. Keep in mind, the 'under' had cashed in the Lions previous eight games. Take the under (10*). |
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12-31-16 | Ohio State v. Clemson UNDER 59 | 0-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ohio State and Clemson at 7 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in this college football playoff semi-final matchup. This is the highest total in a game involving Ohio State since early October. I don't believe it's warranted. Of course, Clemson comes into this one riding a four-game 'over' streak. That certainly plays a factor in this lofty total. Both teams are capable of scoring points in bunches but both defenses are also talented and capable of stepping up in this all-or-nothing affair. Note that the Tigers 4-0 'over' run only brings them to 7-6 on the season in terms of an o/u record. The Buckeyes on the other hand have posted a 6-6 o/u mark. As long as the winner stays in the low-30s in this one we should be in good shape to cash our ticket. That's a solid proposition in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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12-31-16 | Blue Jackets v. Wild OVER 5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Columbus and Minnesota at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' in Minnesota on Saturday. Both of these teams are obviously red hot right now. Both are also scoring goals in bunches. That's a trend I see continuing on Saturday night. Both teams have trended toward the 'under' this season, but not so much recently. The Blue Jackets have seen their last two games go 'over' the total. Meanwhile, the Wild have posted a 3-0-1 o/u mark over their last four contests. The most recent meeting in this series totaled six goals. Expect a similar result here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-31-16 | Washington v. Alabama OVER 52.5 | 7-24 | Loss | -103 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Alabama at 3 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' in the first of two college football playoff semi-final matchups on Saturday. Last year, Alabama rolled to a 38-0 shutout victory over Michigan State. I don't expect the Crimson Tide to pitch another shutout this time around, however. The issue for Washington is that it played in a Pac-12 conference that didn't exactly enjoy a banner year, and still gave up its share of points. It will certainly be in tough against an Alabama squad that can score touchdowns on both sides of the football. On the flip side, the Crimson Tide are 'only' favored by two touchdowns. The oddsmakers believe that the Huskies have a puncher's chance of keeping up in this game. One thing is for sure, Washington can't win this game if it turns into a defensive slugfest. I'm expecting plenty of offense. Take the over (10*). |
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12-30-16 | Pistons v. Hawks OVER 201.5 | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Atlanta at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' in Atlanta on Friday night. The Hawks are coming off a sluggish performance in their first game back home following a long road trip, but they did still prevail by a 102-98 score in overtime against the Knicks. I look for them to break loose offensively as they welcome the Pistons to Philips Arena on Friday. Detroit got lit up for 119 points in a blowout loss at home against Milwaukee last time out. I do expect the Pistons to respond favorably here. Note that these two teams combined to score 206 points in their first meeting this season. We're dealing with a higher posted total this time around, but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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12-30-16 | North Carolina v. Stanford UNDER 54 | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 18 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Stanford and North Carolina at 2 pm et on Friday. The big news leading up to this one was the decision by Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey to sit out. Often times, we'll see teams rally around absences in Bowl games but I'm not convinced that's how this one will play out. Stanford does possess a quality defense and as a result of that, the Cardinal posted a 5-7 o/u record over the course of the regular season. Note that North Carolina posted a 4-8 o/u mark. The Tar Heels didn't have the same explosive offense we've seen in years' past, at least not as the season went on. The 'under' cashed in seven of their last eight contests. We're dealing with a reasonably high total here, but that's largely due to Stanford's 3-0 'over' streak heading in. With Christian McCaffrey out, this is a different game - likely a competitive one, but I don't believe it goes 'over' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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12-29-16 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 215 | 118-124 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Cavs put up just 90 points in a losing effort in Detroit on Monday night, but that was without Lebron James in the lineup. I fully expect them to bounce back at home on Thursday against the Celtics, particularly at the offensive end of the floor. Keep in mind, the first meeting in this series this season went 128-122 in favor of the Cavs here in Cleveland. We're dealing with a considerably higher posted total this time around, but it's warranted in my opinion. Boston has seen the 'over' cash in each of its last five contests. While the Celtics have scored at least 109 points in five straight games, they've also allowed 102. Look for another track meet to develop in Cleveland. Take the over (10*). |
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12-28-16 | Raptors v. Warriors OVER 225 | 111-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Golden State at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'over' at Oracle Arena on Wednesday night. The Raptors are coming off back-to-back relatively low-scoring affairs but have still posted a 20-10 o/u record this season. Meanwhile, the Warriors have been on an 'under' tear, but I expect to see a return to normal as they return home. Note that they've scored at least 108 points while giving up at least 101 in each of their last three contests. They should have little trouble putting up points against a vulnerable Raptors defense. On the flip side, I'm not sure we'll see Golden State come out with too much fire defensively in its first game back following a long holiday road trip. Note that the first meeting between these two teams this season totaled 248 points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-28-16 | Northwestern v. Pittsburgh OVER 64.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Northwestern at 2 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'over' in the Pinstripe Bowl on Wednesday afternoon. Pitt didn't have much luck stopping the opposition during the regular season but the oddsmakers are giving the Panthers a puncher's chance in this one. I don't expect to see all that different of a story unfold, however. Northwestern turned in a few strong defensive showings, but there was more bad than good over the course of the season. I certainly don't anticipate seeing the Wildcats slowing a Panthers offense that can score points in a hurry. The 'over' went 11-1 in all games involving the Panthers this season. Look for that trend to continue here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-27-16 | Washington State v. Minnesota OVER 61 | 12-17 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Washington State at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'over' in this Bowl matchup on Tuesday evening. We've seen a bit of an evolution of the Washington State program in recent years, going from perennial Pac-10/12 doormat to contender, and doing it on the strength of an improved defense. This year didn't exactly play out that way as the Cougars stumbled in their final two games, getting blasted by Colorado and Washington offenses. I'm not sure we'll see the Cougars do much to keep the Golden Gophers offense at bay on Tuesday, but I am confident that the Washington State offense can turn in a strong performance. Minnesota put forth a mixed bag in terms of its defense over the course of the regular season but I believe the Gophers will be vulnerable against an unfamiliar Cougars attack. Take the over (10*). |
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12-26-16 | Suns v. Rockets OVER 228.5 | 115-131 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Houston at 8:05 pm et on Monday. I'm not sure that the oddsmakers can set this total high enough. When these two teams met last week in Phoenix they combined to score 236 points. The 'over' is now 6-1 in the last seven meetings in this series. Neither team has been on the floor since Friday night, but I don't expect any sort of rust to show from the layoff. Both teams will look to get out and run at every opportunity and this one should sail 'over' the high total. Take the over (10*). |
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12-26-16 | Vanderbilt v. NC State OVER 45 | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between N.C. State and Vanderbilt at 5 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' in this matchup. The Wolfpack seemed to hit a high note in their 10-3 home win over Notre Dame in early October. From there it was a struggle, even though they did win two of their final three regular season games, including a big victory over rival North Carolina. The 'under' cashed in seven of their last eight games but I expect a different story to unfold here. Vandy's final two regular season games sailed 'over' the total. The Commodores had a nice stretch of defensive football in October but outside of that, had a tough time keeping the opposition in check. The most recent meeting between these two schools resulted in a 38-24 Vandy win back in 2012. Take the over (10*). |
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12-25-16 | Ravens v. Steelers UNDER 44.5 | 27-31 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 6 m | Show | |
NFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Pittsburgh at 4:30 pm et on Sunday. Full writeups return on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in Pittsburgh on Christmas Day. Big rivalry matchup here, the Ravens are coming off back-to-back 'over' results but I don't expect the same story to unfold on Sunday. The Steelers are known for their offense but their defense has actually come up big for much of the season. I don't see either offense breaking loose for a big day at Heinz Field. Take the under (10*). |
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12-24-16 | Middle Tennessee State v. Hawaii OVER 69.5 | 35-52 | Win | 100 | 54 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Hawaii and Middle Tennessee State at 8 pm et on Saturday. For years, the 'over' seemed to be a sure thing in the Hawaii Bowl. Not so much recently, largely due to the fact that the Rainbow Warriors have fallen off considerably. I do believe we're in for a shootout this year, however. Middle Tennessee State has quietly produced one of the nation's best running attacks this season. Meanwhile, Hawaii can't stop the run. It would be a recipe for a disaster were it not for the fact that the Warriors can put points on the board themselves. Hawaii has a strong aerial attack while the Blue Raiders have had a difficult time slowing opposing passing games this season. The Warriors know they can hang in this matchup and should put forth an aggressive gameplan. All things considered, I believe we're dealing with a reasonable total here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-24-16 | Colts v. Raiders OVER 52.5 | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 50 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indianapolis and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' in Oakland on Saturday afternoon. The Raiders have been involved in back-to-back defensive slugfests but I believe it will be back to 'normal' this week. Neither of these teams will shy away from a shootout. Colts QB Andrew Luck is playing some of his best football of the season right now, and a big reason for that has been the fact that he's managed to stay upright, sacked only twice since returning from a concussion three games back. I don't believe that Indy will have a great deal of success slowing the powerful Raiders offense, however. We saw Oakland sputter in that regard last week as Derek Carr continued to battle an injured finger. That was against the division rival Chargers though. Here, there's a lack of familiarity in terms of the Colts middle of the road defense preparing for Carr. I look for the Raiders to have plenty of success finishing drives. This is one of the highest posted totals we've seen in the NFL this season but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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12-23-16 | Hawks v. Nuggets OVER 221 | 109-108 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Denver at 9:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' in Denver on Friday night. The Hawks are coming off an ugly showing in a home loss to the T'Wolves. Perhaps they could be forgiven for that poor performance as they were in the midst of a busy stretch and fresh off a big road win in Oklahoma City two nights earlier. I expect to see a much sharper game from the Hawks offense here. The Nuggets had their three-game winning streak stopped in a 119-102 road loss to the Clippers last time out. Note that the 'over' has cashed in their last six contests. Denver can certainly score here at home, where it averages just shy of 113 points per game. Unfortunately (or fortunately for our purposes), they're also giving up 112.9 points per contest at home. This will be the first meeting between these two teams this season. While there's not a lot of familiarity between the two, we have seen some high-scoring affairs in recent years. Take the over (10*). |
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12-22-16 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 41.5 | 19-24 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Philadelphia on Thursday night. The Giants have certainly rounded back into form, fresh off back-to-back wins over the Cowboys and Lions, allowing just 13 points in the process. Their offense has come up big when it has needed to, but hasn't been particularly consistent. I do feel they're in for a challenge here. The Eagles haven't played their best football lately, that's for sure. They've given up at least 26 points in five straight games. With that being said, they've allowed more than 27 points only once over that stretch. They've yet to allow more than 27 points in a home game this season. When these two teams met in New Jersey back in November, the Giants rolled to a 28-23 win, easily eclipsing the total. The Eagles were better-suited for a high-scoring affair at the time, however. Despite scoring 26 points against the Ravens last week, they're struggling offensively right now. All four meetings on this field since 2012 have totaled 36 points or less. I believe the relatively low total is warranted in this spot. Take the under (10*). |
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12-22-16 | Ducks v. Senators UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Anaheim and Ottawa at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Ottawa on Thursday. The last time the Sens faced the Ducks a couple of weeks ago in Anaheim, Mike Condon was torched for three goals in the first period en route to an ugly defeat. I'm expecting a much tighter contest here, as the Ducks close out a long road trip and aim to bounce back from a 5-1 loss in Montreal two nights ago. Anaheim went with backup Jonathan Bernier between the pipes in that one. Tonight the Ducks will likely turn back to John Gibson and I expect him to perform well and ultimately keep his team in the game for 60 minutes. Take the under (10*). |
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12-22-16 | Celtics v. Pacers UNDER 211 | 109-102 | Push | 0 | 23 h 39 m | Show | |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Indiana at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Indiana on Wednesday night. The Pacers are coming off back-to-back poor defensive efforts against the Wizards and Knicks but should bounce back following an off day on Tuesday. The Celtics have put up a lot of points over their last two games, but needed overtime to get there on both occasions. In the big picture, Boston hasn't really been performing all that well offensively in recent weeks. Note that the C's have posted an 11-17 o/u record this season. The Pacers last two 'over' results snapped a four-game 'under' streak. The 'under' is a perfect 7-0 in the last seven meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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12-21-16 | BYU v. Wyoming UNDER 57 | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between BYU and Wyoming at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in the Poinsettia Bowl on Wednesday night. BYU is an excellent defensive team that played some of its best football down the stretch during the regular season, allowing a grand total of 29 points over its final four contests. Note that the 'under' cashed in six of their last seven games. Wyoming hunt tough in the Mountain West Conference championship game, ultimately falling by a 27-24 score. That game stayed 'under' the total after the Cowboys previous four contests went 'over'. I simply don't have enough confidence in a BYU offense that will be without QB Taysom Hill to consistently put points on the board against a Wyoming defense that is better than it showed down the stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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12-21-16 | Thunder v. Pelicans OVER 207 | 121-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'over' in the Big Easy on Wednesday night. We should be in for an entertaining game between these two up-tempo squads. Oklahoma City has been on an 'under' run to be sure, but last time out we saw the 'over' cash as the Thunder were defeated by a 110-108 score against the Hawks. I do look for OKC to keep it rolling offensively in this one, but I'm not convinced they can hold down the Pelicans offense. New Orleans comes in confident off a 108-93 win over the 76ers on the road. The Pelicans will be happy to be back home following a tough 1-2 road trip that included losses against the Spurs and Rockets. Note that they're averaging right around 107 points per game at home, but also allowing north of 108. A meeting between these two teams earlier this month produced only 193 points. Their last matchup here in New Orleans, however, totaled 242 points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-20-16 | Blues v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in Dallas on Tuesday night. We've seen a pair of high-scoring affairs between these two Central Division rivals this season, totaling eight and seven goals. I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring contest on Tuesday, however. The Blues have allowed exactly six goals in two of their last three games, which obviously can't sit well for this usually defensively responsible team. I fully expect to see them turn in a much tighter performance here. The Stars haven't been scoring with any consistency lately, a big reason they've been struggling to find the win column. Note that the 'under' is 5-3 over their last eight games and they've posted a 15-18 o/u mark overall this season. These two teams are very familiar with one another and that generally lends itself to lower-scoring hockey than we've seen in the first two meetings in this series this season. Take the under (10*). |
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12-20-16 | Memphis v. Western Kentucky OVER 80 | 31-51 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Western Kentucky at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We're dealing with a very high total in this one, but it's warranted in my opinion. Both the Memphis and Western Kentucky offenses really hit their stride down the stretch during the regular season. I don't believe the extended layoff will have any adverse effects on either offense. This is a nightmarish matchup for the Tigers defense, which allows five yards per rush on the season. The Hilltoppers boast one of the best ground attacks in college football, averaging north of five yards per carry. On the flip side, don't count on the Hilltoppers getting many stops against a Memphis offense that can beat you both through the air and on the ground. The Tigers faced the tougher schedule over the course of the regular season and will have more speed than what Western Kentucky is accustomed to seeing. This will be the first ever meeting between these two programs but despite the lack of familiarity I don't think we'll see much of a feeling-out process. Take the over (10*). |
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12-18-16 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 44.5 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 40 h 59 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm anticipating another low-scoring affair between these two AFC North rivals on Sunday afternoon. The first meeting between these two teams this season totaled just 40 points back in September. We're dealing with a much lower posted total this time around, but it's warranted in my opinion. The Steelers have been one of the best 'under' bets in the league this season, posting a 4-9 o/u mark. Their offense has been steady lately, but not particularly explosive. Meanwhile, their defense has been better than expected as a whole this season. The Bengals have put up 55 points over their last two games, but don't count on them keeping it up as the competition gets tougher this week. This is still an offense that is missing its top weapon in WR A.J. Green, not to mention versatile RB Gio Bernard. The good news for Cincinnati is it has delivered back-to-back wins and its defense is performing at a very high level. I look for that to continue on Sunday afternoon at home. Take the under (10*). |
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12-17-16 | Southern Miss v. UL-Lafayette OVER 58.5 | 28-21 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Southern Miss and UL-Lafayette at 9 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' at the Superdome on Saturday night. I don't anticipate either offense being slowed on the fast track in this one. Southern Miss didn't exactly live up to expectations this season but can make amends with a strong performance here. There's little reason to expect the Ragin' Cajuns to slow the Eagles offense. UL-Lafayette will once again lean heavily on its ground game but should find some success against a vulnerable Southern Miss defense that allows nearly five yards per rush on the campaign. Both teams saw the 'under' cash in their last two regular season games, which helps to keep this total in check. I believe it will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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12-17-16 | Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 37.5 | 34-13 | Loss | -103 | 34 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and New York at 8:25 pm et on Saturday. We're dealing with a low total here, but I believe it's warranted. Both offenses have had their struggles and things won't get any easier playing on a short week, not to mention the fact that both units are without their regular starting centers at this stage of the season. Of course, Miami will also be without QB Ryan Tannehill. Veteran Matt Moore will get his first start since 2011 and while the offense should still run relatively smoothly with Moore at the helm, I'm not counting on a lot of explosive plays. Note that the Dolphins running game has virtually disappeared in recent weeks, severely hampering their ability to finish drives. The Jets offense has turned to Bryce Petty at quarterback. He may be the QB of the future but he hasn't done a great deal to instill much confidence this season. I have respect for both defenses. The Jets 'd' was lit up in a no-show against the Colts the last time they played on this field. They should make amends here. Take the under (10*). |
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12-17-16 | Suns v. Thunder OVER 214 | 101-114 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Oklahoma City at 5:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' in Oklahoma City on Saturday afternoon. The Thunder were virtual no shows in their last two games - both on the road. They should bounce back strong back at home, however, where they average nearly 109 points per game. By contrast, the Suns are giving up a whopping 115 ppg on the road. Phoenix can score though. Even on the road, the Suns offense has thrived, putting up nearly 109 points per contest. The most recent meeting between these two teams on this floor totaled 228 points. The Suns have been one of the best 'over' bets in the league this season, posting an 18-8 o/u mark. The Thunder have seen the 'under' cash in eight of their last nine contests but I believe that trend will start to reverse here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-16-16 | Hawks v. Raptors OVER 213.5 | 125-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' in Toronto on Friday. These two teams met less than two weeks ago as the Raptors routed the Hawks by a 128-84 score. We're dealing with a higher posted total this time around, but I believe it's warranted. Atlanta can't get any stops right now, as evidenced by its 131-120 loss to Orlando last time out. Likewise, the Raptors haven't exactly been defensive stalwarts this season. But they can score. Both teams can score, in fact. While the Hawks have posted a 10-15 o/u record this season, the Raptors have gone 18-7 to the 'over'. I believe we'll see Toronto set the pace at home in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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12-15-16 | Rangers v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Dallas on Thursday night. First of all, seven of the last eight meetings in this series have totaled five goals or less. Meanwhile, the Rangers haven't seen a game play 'over' five goals since December 6th against the Islanders. Having allowed a grand total of three goals during a 3-1 run, the Rangers are in terrific form defensively right now. The Stars will pose a tough challenge, but I believe New York will be up for it. Dallas is known as a high-scoring team but the fact is, it has posted a 15-16 o/u record this season. The Stars are fresh off a 6-2 win over the Ducks on home ice, but should be brought back to reality against the Rangers. With plenty of offensive firepower on the ice, the public will be quick to back the 'over' in this one but I'm confident going the other way. Take the under (10*). |
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12-15-16 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 38.5 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Seattle on Thursday night. Both of these teams are coming off ugly losses last Sunday. Now playing on a short week, both will look to clean things up. I'm not anticipating many offensive fireworks. The Rams offense has been awful this season, and I'm not sure a coaching change will make an immediate impact this week. Rookie QB Jared Goff continues to make strides, but he's coming off an ugly performance against the Falcons on Sunday. Don't expect the Rams to ask him to do too much against an opportunistic Seahawks defense on Thursday. Seattle has struggled to put points on the board with QB Russell Wilson hobbled for much of the campaign. He's finally healthy, and turned in a strong effort two weeks ago against a reeling Panthers squad, but had a really tough time in Green Bay this past Sunday. Expect the Seahawks offensive performance to fall somewhere in the middle of those two games here. The Rams defense has the talent and the familiarity with the Seahawks to hold up well playing on a short week - even on the road. Three of the last four meetings in Seattle have totaled 36 points or less. Take the under (10*). |
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12-14-16 | Flyers v. Avalanche OVER 5.5 | 4-3 | Win | 102 | 27 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Colorado at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'over' in Colorado on Wednesday night. The Flyers are coming off a rare low-scoring affair as they pulled out a 1-0 overtime win in Detroit on Sunday. I expect a return to 'normal' here, noting that the 'over' had gone 3-0-1 in Philadelphia's previous four contests. Likewise, Colorado saw its last three games play 'over' the total prior to its 3-1 win in Toronto on Sunday. Avs goaltender Semyon Varlamov stood on his head in that victory, stopping 51 shots. I'm not counting on a repeat performance here. The 'over' is 3-1 in the last four meetings in this series with the last two matchups in Colorado totaling seven and six goals. Take the over (10*). |
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12-13-16 | Thunder v. Blazers OVER 218 | 95-114 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Portland at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. I'm certainly not in the minority in calling for a high-scoring affair at the Moda Center on Tuesday night. But that doesn't mean that the 'over' is the wrong play. Simply put, I don't anticipate much hard-nosed defense being played in this one - in fact, we should see none of the sort. The Thunder are coming off a relatively low-scoring win over the Celtics and have now secured victories in seven of their last 10 games overall. Russell Westbrook's triple-double streak came to an end in that most recent contest but he's not about to hang his head as he still poured in 37 points. For the Blazers, this is a key spot as they'll head back out on the road for a tough three-game trip after tonight's game. They're in a back-to-back spot following a tough loss to the Clippers in Los Angeles last night, but I still expect them to come out with plenty of energy. This is a high total, but it could be even higher as far as I'm concerned. Take the over (10*). |
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12-12-16 | Ravens v. Patriots UNDER 44.5 | 23-30 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and New England at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in Foxborough on Monday night. The Ravens exploded for 38 points in a rout of the Dolphins last week - their second consecutive win. I'm not sold on this offense, however. We're talking about an offense that has been on a decline for years. The consistency just hasn't been there ever since Baltimore's Super Bowl run. I do like the make-up of the Ravens defense. This is an unheralded group but one that's capable of stepping up against one of the league's best offenses in primetime. The Patriots barely broke a sweat in last week's 26-10 win over the Rams. Lost in the success of the Pats offense has been the play of their defense. Note that New England has allowed 17 points or less in eight of its last 10 contests. We've seen plenty of inflated totals in primetime NFL action this season. While this number isn't all that high, I believe it will prove to be too lofty in a key AFC matchup. Take the under (10*). |
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12-11-16 | Saints v. Bucs OVER 51 | 11-16 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 18 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday O/U Rout. My selection is on the ‘over’ between New Orleans and Tampa Bay at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Not sure where the stops are going to come from in this game. Yes, the Bucs have won four games in a row, but their defense has been up and down. They’ve yet to face the potent Saints offense this year. New Orleans didn’t perform up to its own standards in last week’s ugly 28-13 home loss against the Lions. Drew Brees threw for a lot of yards, but had a tough time finishing drives in that one. I expect him to bounce back against a familiar opponent here, however. Meanwhile, the Saints defense remains their weakness, as has been the case for years. With Bucs QB Jameis Winston gaining confidence with each passing week, the ‘D’ could be in for a long afternoon in Tampa on Sunday. This is a high posted total to be sure, but I believe it’s warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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12-11-16 | Texans v. Colts UNDER 46.5 | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 74 h 57 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday Total Dominator. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Houston and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. We cashed a big ticket with the ‘over’ in the first meeting between these AFC South rivals back in October (and were fortunate to do so) but I won’t hesitate to switch gears this time around. The Texans offense has sputtered for much of the season, due in large part to the ineffectiveness of QB Brock Osweiler. Is there any reason to expect anything to change this week as they head into hostile territory with a division title virtually hanging in the balance? The Colts defense should be a confident group thanks to Monday night’s dominant performance on the road against the hapless Jets. It’s a boost that could be much-needed with LB D’Qwell Jackson suspended for the remainder of the season. The Houston defense has dealt with plenty of key injuries this season but has hung in there save for a few late game collapses recently. I’m not sure the Colts offense is quite as good as it showed on Monday night in New Jersey and look for the Texans defense to step up with a strong performance on Sunday afternoon. There’s a lot on the line in this game. I’m anticipating a hard-fought affair all the way. Take the under (10*). |
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12-10-16 | Army v. Navy UNDER 47 | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 90 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Army and Navy at 3 pm et on Saturday. We've certainly cashed our share of 'under' tickets in this series over the years. We're obviously talking about an overwhelming 'under' trend. I'm still not sure the oddsmakers have made enough of an adjustment when it comes to this total. It's the lowest total we've seen since 2009, but I believe it will still prove too high. Neither team has a quarterback that has a real nose for the end zone and I believe that sets us up for another low-scoring affair. Yes, Navy has been involved in plenty of shootouts this season but we cashed a big ticket with the 'under' in the Middies blowout loss to Temple last week, and I can't help but think they'll have a tough time getting rolling again here. Army is coming off a 60-point outburst but that came at the expense of an FCS squad, Morgan State. Prior to that, the Black Knights had topped out at 21 points over their last four contests. Navy has certainly brought out Army's 'A' game in recent years, with the Black Knights often saving their best for last. Of course, Army hasn't been able to get over the hump with a victory and that likely won't change here in 2016. Expect a hard-fought affair though. Take the under (10*). |
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12-08-16 | Raiders v. Chiefs UNDER 47 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 60 h 15 m | Show |
NFL Thursday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Oakland and Kansas City at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. It would be easy to jump on the ‘over’ after watching these two offenses race up and down the field in their respective games last Sunday. But I’m going to go the other way, as I have respect for both defenses and don’t believe the Chiefs offense in particular is as good as it showed four days ago. Of course, playing on a short week also factors in as these Thursday night games always seem to trend to the ‘under’. The Raiders got off to a slow start against the Bills last Sunday but responded in a big way in the second half, ultimately cruising to yet another victory. Things will be a little tougher here, as they hit the road to face a Chiefs squad that already beat them by a 26-10 score in Oakland earlier this season (we won with Kansas City in that game). For the Chiefs, I believe they’ll face a lot more resistance against the Raiders than they did against the Falcons. Atlanta set the tone for that Sunday shootout early, scoring on its opening drive – yet the ‘over’ result was still in question in the final minutes of the fourth quarter. Given the fast start from both teams, it was surprising that the game ‘only’ reached 57 points. I expect a return to ‘normal’ here. This is obviously a big game for both teams. I’m anticipating a playoff atmosphere at Arrowhead and I don’t expect either team to give an inch. Take the under (10*). |
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12-08-16 | Wolves v. Raptors OVER 214 | 110-124 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in Toronto on Thursday night. I was actually in attendance the last time these two teams met on this floor, and the result was a 114-105 Raptors victory. I'm expecting a similarly high-scoring result on Thursday. The Wolves were shut down in the second half in a blowout loss to the Spurs last time out. Of course, San Antonio has been lights out on the road this season. I'm confident we'll see Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns and co. bounce back offensively against the Raptors. Toronto is coming off yet another loss to the Cavaliers. Of course, the Raps have been one of the best 'over' bets in the NBA this season, posting a 15-6 o/u record. They've scored at least 105 points in eight straight games and that streak should remain intact in this matchup. This is the highest posted total we've seen in this series since 2011. But we've seen the 'over' cash in each of the last three meetings, and while the Raptors are a better offensive team this season, I also believe they're weaker defensively. Take the over (10*). |
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12-04-16 | Chiefs v. Falcons UNDER 50 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Sunday afternoon. Despite giving up 27 points in last week's wild overtime win in Denver, I still believe the Chiefs have one of the league's best defenses. The Falcons have been nothing short of explosive on offense this season but I believe they'll face considerable resistance in this one. Meanwhile, the Atlanta defense has been ripped on more than one occasion. However, this unit is coming off a strong performance last week against Arizona, and despite last week's outburst in Denver, the Kansas City offense is by no means a juggernaut. After losing Jeremy Maclin to injury the question lingered as to who would step up to produce in the Chiefs offense. That question was answered in the form of Tyreek Hill, who has been doing it all. But you can be sure the Falcons defense has been game planning for Hill all week long. I'm confident they'll be ready for what the Chiefs have to throw at them on Sunday. The last time these two teams met in 2012 we saw a closing total of 43. That game sailed 'over' the total with Atlanta rolling to a 40-24 road victory. I'm expecting a much different story to unfold on Sunday. Take the under (10*). |
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12-03-16 | Stars v. Avalanche OVER 5.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Colorado at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' in Colorado on Saturday night. We won with the 'over' in the first meeting between these two teams this season, but in their last matchup they combined to score only five goals. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the 'over' this time around. The Stars haven't lived up to expectations offensively this season, and particularly of late. But the Avs always seem to bring out the best in them offensively, and I'm not anticipating anything different on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Avs are coming off four straight losses so they'll be highly-motivated to get back in the win column here. Note that they've scored 30 goals in regulation time in their last eight meetings with the Stars. Take the over (10*). |
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12-03-16 | Temple v. Navy UNDER 60.5 | Top | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Temple and Navy at 12 noon et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in the AAC Championship Game on Saturday afternoon. Simply put, I believe Temple can slow the high-powered Navy offense. The oddsmakers would seem to be on board with that thinking as well, installing the Midshipmen as a very small favorite in this one. Temple has reeled off 11 straight ATS wins, and has given up just 10 points over its last three contests. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 4-0 in the Owls last four games. Navy faced a tough schedule this season but came away relatively unscathed, going 9-2 SU. The Middies have posted an 8-3 o/u mark, but again, that has a lot to do with the tough schedule they faced. I see this as a manageable matchup for the Navy defense. The last time these two teams met two years ago they combined to score 55 points, staying just 'under' the posted total. I'm calling for a similar outcome on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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12-02-16 | Canadiens v. Sharks OVER 5 | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Friday. The Canadiens are coming off a low-scoring affair to open their west coast road trip as they fell by a 2-1 score in Anaheim on Tuesday night. I expect a different story to unfold on Friday as the scene shifts to San Jose. The Sharks have posted a ridiculous 2-16-6 o/u ledger this season. I do expect that mark to begin to even out as the season rolls on, however. Montreal is a better offensive team this season, but you wouldn't know it by its recent results. I do think the opportunity is there for a bit of a breakout performance here though. Meanwhile, the Sharks potted six goals the last time they hosted the Habs. They'll face a tougher challenge this time around as the Canadiens have a healthy Carey Price. The all world goaltender hasn't been invincible lately, however, and I'm confident San Jose's high-powered attack can do some damage in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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12-02-16 | Colorado v. Washington UNDER 56.5 | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Washington at 9 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in the Pac-12 Championship Game on Friday night. I have a lot of respect for both of these teams. We've made money supporting both this season, but here I'll focus on the total. I'm not convinced the Buffaloes will be able to get a lot done offensively in this matchup. There were times during the regular season when it was a real struggle for Colorado to break through offensively against strong opposition. While the Huskies have been a big of an offensive juggernaut this season, they should face plenty of resistance here. The Buffaloes are built on the strength of their defense, and they do match up reasonably well in that regard. Keep in mind, the 'under' went 2-0-1 in the Huskies final three regular season contests. The last time these two teams met in 2014 they combined to score 61 points but we're talking about two very different squads here in 2016. Take the under (10*). |
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12-01-16 | Cowboys v. Vikings UNDER 44 | 17-15 | Win | 102 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Minnesota at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Minnesota on Thursday night. We won with the 'over' in the Cowboys Thanksgiving Day win over the Redskins, and also cashed with the 'under' and the Lions in the Vikes holiday affair. Here, I'm anticipating a fairly low-scoring contest. Yes, the Cowboys offense is scary good, and extremely efficient with the rookie tandem of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott leading the way. But they'll run into a tougher challenge than they faced last week as the Vikings return home in a foul mood, and with a top level defense. I don't have a lot of faith in the Minnesota offense. Sam Bradford struggled when it mattered most last Thursday in Detroit. The Vikes running game needs to get going, but I'm not sure they currently have the personnel in place to do so. The last time these two teams met in 2013 they reached 50 total points. Three years later, I expect a different story to unfold. Take the under (10*). |
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11-30-16 | Grizzlies v. Raptors UNDER 195.5 | 105-120 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Grizzlies have had a tough enough time scoring at the best of times this season. Now without Mike Conley I expect them to really struggle. Memphis is coming off a tough 104-85 home loss to Charlotte on Monday - the second straight game it allowed over 100 points after holding five straight opponents under that number. I do expect the Grizzlies to bounce back defensively in this one. The Raptors shredded the lowly 76ers on Monday night, scoring 122 points in a 27-point rout. They've been one of the best 'over' bets in the league this season posting a 12-5 o/u mark. I will note that Toronto has held back-to-back opponents to fewer than 100 points and should have little trouble building on those efforts here. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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11-29-16 | Magic v. Spurs OVER 196.5 | 95-83 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and San Antonio at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'over' in San Antonio on Tuesday night. The most recent meeting between these two teams totaled only 194 points and as a result we're dealing with a considerably lower total this time around (the last meeting closed at 203). Keep in mind, we've seen 199, 213 and 233 points the last three times these teams have met in San Antonio dating back to 2014. The Spurs are rolling along offensively right now, having scored 119, 109 and 112 points in their last three games. To put it simply, I don't see the Magic standing in their way in this contest. While Orlando has struggled offensively in recent games, the potential is there for a breakout performance as it catches San Antonio back home following a three-game road trip. The 'over' has cashed in the Spurs last six games and I'm not about to stand in the way of that train on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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11-28-16 | Packers v. Eagles UNDER 47.5 | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Philadelphia on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in Philadelphia on Monday night. The Packers are coming off four straight high-scoring affairs. They've been absolutely beaten down in Tennessee and Washington over the last two weeks but I look for them to hold up better in this spot, particularly on defense. Keep in mind, the Eagles are struggling offensively with rookie QB Carson Wentz looking every bit like a first-year starter over the last several games. The Packers defense is better than it has shown over the last few weeks, only collapsing in the fourth quarter last week in Washington. The Eagles defense doesn't get enough credit. This is a solid unit that has been particularly stout at home, where Philadelphia has gone a perfect 4-0 this season. Even in last week's double-digit loss in Seattle the defense did all it could to keep the team in the game right into the fourth quarter. The last time these two teams met they combined to score 73 points in a Packers rout back in 2014 at Lambeau Field. The two teams are in much different places now, however, with the Packers offense looking disjointed and the Eagles more of a defense-first squad. I simply feel this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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11-27-16 | Panthers v. Raiders UNDER 50 | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -116 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Oakland at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Oakland on Sunday afternoon. We won with the 'under' in the Panthers win over the Saints last week while missing with the 'under' in the Raiders victory over the Texans on Monday Night Football. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Yes, the Panthers will be without their best defensive player in Luke Kuechly, but I look for the rest of this unit to pick up the slack in his absence. Note that the Panthers have essentially turned in just two poor defensive performances this season, those coming against familiar opponents in the Falcons and Saints on the road. The Raiders offense is explosive, there's no question about that. However, this isn't an unstoppable offense. I don't believe the Raiders defense gets enough credit, noting that they have allowed 20 points or less in three of their last four games. The 'over' is a perfect 4-0 in the Raiders last four contests, but that streak will be seriously tested here with a high number. Take the under (10*). |
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11-26-16 | UCLA v. California UNDER 71 | 10-36 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between UCLA and Cal at 7 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in Berkeley on Saturday evening. UCLA is coming off a beatdown at the hands of rival USC last week, falling by a 36-14 score. I do expect the Bruins to turn in a stronger defensive showing here, even against another explosive offense in Cal. While most will assume UCLA will rip through the Bears defense, this is a Bruins offense that has been fairly inconsistent this season. Cal's offense has actually regressed down the stretch this season. The Bears have been involved in so many track meets, I simply feel that they're running out of gas as they limp to the finish line. Note that we haven't seen a matchup in this series go over the 70-point plateau since 2009. Over the last six meetings, the 'under' has gone 5-1. Take the under (10*). |
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11-25-16 | Arizona State v. Arizona OVER 67.5 | Top | 35-56 | Win | 100 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
CFB Black Friday Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona State and Arizona at 9:30 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' in Tucson on Friday night. We missed the mark with the 'over' in Arizona's last game, a 42-17 loss at Oregon State last week. With that being said, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Arizona State hasn't tasted victory since October 8th. The Sun Devils offense has continued to perform at a fairly high level, however, despite a poor showing last week against a powerful Washington squad. With QB Manny Wilkins getting back to full strength there's reason to believe they'll shred the Arizona defense on Friday night. The Wildcats have dealt with injury issues of their own on offense this season. But Solomon and Dawkins are both healthy under center now. They'll be facing a Sun Devils defense that hasn't been able to stop anyone. Keep in mind, last year's meeting between these in-state rivals totaled 89 points. In fact, the 'over' is a perfect 4-0 in the last four meetings. Take the over (10*). |
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11-25-16 | Wolves v. Suns OVER 212.5 | 98-85 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' in Phoenix on Friday night. Neither of these teams have impressed this season. That's not unexpected, of course. The T'Wolves ran into a brick wall in New Orleans last time out but I expect them to find a lot more floor space to work with against the Suns on Friday. Coming out of a mini-slump I'm also anticipating a far better performance from Andrew Wiggins in particular. The Suns are just 5-11 on the season but they're feeling good about themselves following a 92-87 win over the Magic on Wednesday. That was a surprisingly low-scoring affair but we should see a much different story to unfold here as the Suns should have little trouble exposing a vulnerable T'Wolves defense. This is a fairly high total but it's warranted in my opinion. In today's NBA totals in this range have become the norm, in fact, and I like this one to sail over. Take the over (10*). |
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11-25-16 | Red Wings v. Devils UNDER 5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and New Jersey at 7:35 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in New Jersey on Friday night. The Red Wings are coming off a shootout win over the Sabres on Wednesday night. It was yet another low-scoring affair for the Wings, who continue to struggle to find the back of the net. Meanwhile, the Devils were involved in a barn-burner against the Leafs, ultimately prevailing 5-4 in a shootout. Note that prior to that, they had scored just five goals in regulation time in their last four games combined. The most recent meeting between these two teams totaled just a single goal last January. Both teams are missing some key cogs right now. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring game on Friday. Take the under (10*). |
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11-24-16 | Redskins v. Cowboys OVER 51 | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 44 h 59 m | Show |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Washington and Dallas at 4:30 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Dallas on Thursday. This one sets up nicely after the Cowboys delivered a relatively low-scoring win over the Ravens last Sunday afternoon. On the flip side, the Redskins exploded for 42 points in a win over the reeling Packers on Sunday night. I expect to see a strong performance from both offenses in Big D on Thursday. With QB Kirk Cousins once again rounding into form, WR DeSean Jackson back healthy, and some semblance of a running game making an appearance, the Redskins are evolving into one of the more explosive offenses in football. I see this as a manageable matchup against a Cowboys defense that has performed better than advertised at times, but has also proven vulnerable without a number of key cogs. Of course, the Dallas offense has been the talk of the league with rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott going off on a weekly basis. There’s little reason to expect any sort of slowdown from that duo on Thursday. Add in a healthy Dez Bryant and this is an awfully tough offense to slow down, let alone stop these days. We’re dealing with a high total in this one, higher than the number these two teams reached in their first meeting this season. It’s warranted though, as far as I’m concerned. Take the over (10*). |
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11-24-16 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 43 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 40 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Minnesota and Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Detroit on Thursday afternoon. The first meeting between these two teams was a low-scoring affair, totaling just 32 points in regulation time back on November 6th. I’m not anticipating a much different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Detroit on Thursday. Yes, the Vikings are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair against the Cardinals on Sunday. However, it’s worth noting that Vikes QB Sam Bradford threw for only 169 yards on 20 completions in that game, while their leading rusher was Jerick McKinnon with just 44 yards on 16 carries. This is by no means an explosive offense right now, and runs into an underrated Lions defense on Thursday. Detroit is coming off a rather pedestrian 26-19 win over the Jaguars. In past years, the Lions have been known for their offense. Even when the team has been bad, the offense has generally remained strong. This year, we’ve seen the Lions defense take a big step forward though, and I’m confident that defense will hold up well again on Thursday. We’ve certainly seen plenty of high-scoring affairs on Thanksgiving Day at Ford Field over the years but this time around, I believe the total will prove to be too high. Take the under (10*). |
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11-23-16 | Oilers v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -143 | 26 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Colorado at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Colorado on Wednesday night. The Oilers stomped the Blackhawks 5-0 last time out and have now potted 10 goals in their last two games. I look for them to face some resistance here, however. The Avalanche are suddenly playing stout defensive hockey, having allowed two goals or less in five of their last six games. On the flip side, their offense remains tepid. They enter this contest having notched back-to-back wins, but scored only five goals in regulation time. Note that two of three meetings between these two teams totaled just five goals last season. The 'under' is 5-2 in the last seven matchups in this series. Take the under (9*). |
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11-23-16 | Raptors v. Rockets UNDER 217 | 115-102 | Push | 0 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Houston at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Houston on Wednesday night. The Raptors are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair against the Clippers in Los Angeles on Monday. I don't believe they'll have any interest in getting involved in another track meet here. While the Rockets are known for their offense, the fact is the 'under' has gone 9-5 in their 14 games so far this season. They recently welcomed back one of their best defenders in Patrick Beverley and last time out they held the Pistons to just 96 points in a victory that cruised 'under' the total. The last two meetings in this series have been high-scoring but now we're dealing with an even higher total. I simply don't believe the inflated number is warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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11-21-16 | Raptors v. Clippers UNDER 209.5 | 115-123 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at Staples Center on Monday night. Tough spot for the Raptors here. They're coming off a narrow 102-99 loss in Sacramento last night, coming on a controversial call at the end of the game. Now they have to play on the second of back-to-back nights against a Clippers squad that will be rested and ready. The Clips saw their five-game 'over' streak come to an end last time out, as they defeated the Bulls by a 102-95 score. I look for them to build on that strong defensive performance here. Lost in last night's Raptors defeat was the fact that they performed reasonably well defensively, after getting torched in six straight games. The most recent meeting between these two teams here in Los Angeles totaled only 171 points almost a year ago to the day. We're dealing with a higher posted total this time around, largely due to the combined 17-10 o/u mark the Raps and Clips have posted this season. I don't believe the number is warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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11-21-16 | Wild v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in Dallas on Monday night. The Wild should turn to Devan Dubnyk in goal after giving him the night off on Saturday - a game they lost by a 3-2 score in Colorado. Dubnyk has been outstanding again this season, posting a 1.59 GAA and .948 save percentage. Of course, the Stars haven't been nearly as stout between the pipes. They're coming off an ugly 5-2 home loss to the Oilers on Saturday night. With that being said, they had allowed two goals or less in four of their previous five games. The first meeting between these two teams this season resulted in a 4-0 Wild victory in Minnesota, cruising 'under' the total. This is a pretty big spot for both teams as they try to get on track following an uneven stretch. I expect this one to be played rather close to the vest. Take the under (10*). |
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11-21-16 | Texans v. Raiders UNDER 45 | 20-27 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Oakland at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in Mexico City on Monday night. We won with the 'over' in Houston's most recent game - a 24-21 win in Jacksonville last Sunday. We were fortunate to cash that ticket, however, as the scoring slowed considerably following an exciting first quarter. I'm certainly not all that high on the Texans. They were in a favorable spot to put some points on the board last week against the lowly Jaguars, but it will be a different story against the red hot Raiders on Monday. While Oakland is known for its offense, we've seen the Raiders defense step to the forefront when it's mattered most as well. Last time out they limited an improving Broncos defense to just 20 points in a double-digit victory. They draw a manageable matchup against a rather one-dimensional Texans offense on Monday. The playing conditions could be difficult on Monday night in Mexico, not only due to the altitude but also the poor air quality. These Monday night games haven't exactly been barn burners this season, and I'm anticipating a similarly slow-paced affair on Monday. Take the under (10*). |
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11-20-16 | Patriots v. 49ers OVER 51 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 15 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New England and San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'm anticipating a shootout at Levi's Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Yes, the Patriots will be without Rob Gronkowski but I don't expect that to hold the offense back. Last Sunday night we saw New England struggle against the Seahawks, but they'll face a more favorable matchup here. The 49ers are by no means what they once were defensively, and I'm confident the Pats will expose their weaknesses. San Francisco saw its four-game 'over' streak grind to a halt against the Cardinals last Sunday. Note that the 49ers have put up 43 points over their last two games. I still believe the Niners can have a strong finish to the campaign offensively with Colin Kaepernick locked in under center and Carlos Hyde back healthy. Who could forget the last meeting between these two teams - a Sunday night showdown in Foxboro back in 2012 - a game the 49ers won by a 41-34 score. While I'm not about to predict a game that gets into the 70's, I do believe this lofty total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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11-20-16 | Steelers v. Browns OVER 44.5 | 24-9 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Cleveland on Sunday afternoon. The Steelers don't have a defense to speak of. They've gotten repeatedly shredded during their current four-game losing streak. I'm not convinced they turn it around here, certainly not now that arguably their best defensive player, Cam Heyward, has been sidelined. Offensively, Pittsburgh can score with the best of them. We saw that last week as the Steelers went blow for blow with the Dallas Cowboys. I don't expect them to face a great deal of resistance in Cleveland. The Browns offense is better than it has shown, particularly the effort it put forth in last week's ugly loss at Baltimore. I'm a supporter of QB Cody Kessler, and believe he has enough pieces around him to put up points in a matchup such as this. The 'under' has cashed in six of the last seven meetings in this series, but we're looking at a reasonably low total on Sunday afternoon. Note that the last time they met here in Cleveland we saw a closing total of 47.5. Take the over (10*). |
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11-19-16 | Arizona v. Oregon State OVER 61 | 17-42 | Loss | -104 | 35 h 7 m | Show | |
Late Night O/U Bailout. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Oregon State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' in Corvallis on Saturday night. After being held to just 31 points over a span of three games, Arizona put up 24 against a quality Colorado defense, on the road no less, albeit in a blowout loss last Saturday. I expect to see progression from the Wildcats offense here against the Beavers. Meanwhile, Oregon State also put up 24 points in a losing effort on the road against UCLA. The Beavers have dropped five games in a row, although it's worth mentioning that they did score 31 points in their most recent home game, against a tough Washington State squad. We saw a closing total of 66.5 points in this matchup last year. While both offenses may have taken a step back, I believe both are in line for big performances on Saturday night. Expect a shootout. Take the over (10*). |
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11-18-16 | Penguins v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
NHL Total Dominator. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Brooklyn on Friday night. The Pens will likely have Matt Murray back in goal after he was forced to leave Wednesday's game in Washington with a possible concussion. He cleared concussion protocol and it sounds like there's a good chance he'll start on Friday. The Islanders are still known as a strong offensive team, but they've actually been one of the worst scoring teams in the league this season. John Tavares leads the team in scoring with only five goals, which says a lot. The last two meetings between these two teams here in Brooklyn have totaled just three and five goals. I'm anticipating more of the same on Friday. Take the under (10*). |
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11-18-16 | Rangers v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
NHL O/U Rout. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Columbus on Friday night. The Rangers are fresh off a wild 7-2 victory in Vancouver three nights ago. I expect them to face a little more resistance here, however. The Blue Jackets have a certain reputation having scored 10 and 8 goals on two separate occasions this season. But I still believe this is a team that will continue to be involved in its share of low-scoring affairs - noting we cashed an 'under' ticket in the Jackets OT win over the Capitals earlier this week. Note that the Jackets have actually posted a 4-10 o/u record this season. The Rangers first two games on their current road trip stayed 'under' the total before that high-scoring contest in Vancouver. Take the under (10*). |
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11-17-16 | Saints v. Panthers UNDER 52.5 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Carolina at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Carolina on Thursday night. The Saints are known for their offense and they've certainly performed well on that side of the football in recent weeks, but I'm not convinced they'll enjoy the same success they did in the first meeting between these two teams this season. New Orleans' o-line took a hit with the absence of Terron Armstead last week and he isn't expected to play on Thursday. That's a key injury you won't hear a lot about. Defensively, the Saints turned in one of their better performances of the season last week, even if it was in a losing effort against the Broncos. I look for them to build off of that strong showing here. Of course, the Panthers offense has struggled to regain the form that carried the team all the way to the Super Bowl last February. Cam Newton has been under pressure virtually every snap, and the run game has been non-existent. Meanwhile, the receiving corps leaves a lot to be desired. TE Greg Olsen has been one of the few bright spots on offense. The Panthers defense held up well most of the way against the Chiefs last Sunday, but it wasn't enough as they were unable to hold off a fourth quarter comeback. This defense has been playing well, however, allowing 20 points or less in three straight games. If the Panthers are going to turn things around, the defense will need to lead the way. The last two meetings between these two teams resulted in identical 41-38 scores, with each team winning once. However, the most recent meeting here in Carolina resulted in only 49 points in September of last year. Of course, the Saints were without Drew Brees in that one. I'm not sure it makes a difference as far as the total is concerned here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-17-16 | Louisville v. Houston UNDER 69 | 10-36 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Louisville and Houston at 8 pm et on Thursday. While both of these offenses can score in bunches, I feel that this total will prove too high on Thursday night. There's not much separating these two teams in terms of overall records, but I don't think there's any question, Louisville is the superior team from top to bottom. With that being said, Houston managed to upset Louisville, on the road no less, last season and will bring plenty of confidence to the table. The thing is, I believe the Cougars know that they're not going to win a shootout against the Cardinals - not this year anyway. They'll need to extend some drives in order to keep the ball out of the hands of Lamar Jackson and the explosive Cards offense. Louisville actually did a nice job containing Houston QB Greg Ward Jr. in last year's matchup - even if it was all for not in a losing effort. That will obviously be the key to victory here on Thursday night. The blueprint has been laid out for slowing down Ward, and I'm confident we'll see the Cardinals follow it. Last year's meeting went 'over' the posted total, but we're dealing with a much higher number this time around. Too high in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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11-17-16 | Panthers v. Maple Leafs UNDER 5.5 | 1-6 | Loss | -128 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring games two nights ago with the Panthers pulling off a 4-3 upset of the Canadiens and the Leafs crushing the Predators by a 6-2 score. Note that the Panthers haven't scored more than three goals in regulation time in their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Leafs have been wildly inconsistent - not surprising given the number of young players they have playing big roles. They've been held to a goal or less in two of their last four games, while scoring exactly six in each of the other two contests. These two teams have already met once this season with the Leafs skating to a 3-2 win on home ice. I'm expecting a similar final tally on Wednesday. Take the under (10*). |
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11-16-16 | Rockets v. Thunder OVER 216.5 | 103-105 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Oklahoma City at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'over' in OKC on Wednesday night. Houston continues to roll along offensively and I don't see the Thunder standing in its way here. The Rockets depend heavily on their three-point shooting and certainly won't stop firing from long range against a vulnerable Thunder defense. I do expect Oklahoma City to keep pace, however, noting that the Thunder have lost four games in a row and find themselves in a big bounce-back spot off a poor showing in Detroit on Monday. In that game, OKC managed only 88 points. That came on the heels of a stretch that saw it score 102 points or more in three consecutive games. This has been a high-scoring series in recent years, although this will be the first meeting of the post-Kevin Durant era in Oklahoma City. I still believe the posted total will prove too low. Take the over (9*). |
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11-15-16 | Bulls v. Blazers UNDER 213.5 | 113-88 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Portland at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Blazers have been one of the best 'over' bets in the league so far this season but that fact hasn't been lost on oddsmakers or bettors alike based on this lofty total. I believe it will prove too high on Tuesday night. Chicago is banged-up right now with Doug McDermott sidelined due to concussion symptoms and both Rajon Rondo and Isaiah Canaan dealing with nagging injuries. This is a team that doesn't have a great deal of depth to begin with so any injuries are key. Portland has been scoring at will lately, but has also faced a rather light schedule, with three of its last four games coming against the Suns, Kings and Nuggets. Things will get a little tougher here. Note that the Bulls have given up 95 points or less in three of their last four contests. We saw two relatively high posted totals in this matchup last year as well, with both games staying 'under' the number, reaching just 181 and 198 points. Expect a similar outcome here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-15-16 | Senators v. Flyers UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in Philadelphia on Tuesday night. We won with the 'over' in the Flyers loss in Toronto this past Friday night - which happened to be our most recent play on the ice. I see value going the other way this time around, however. The Senators aren't scoring right now. They were held to a single goal in a 2-1 home loss to the Wild on Sunday. In fact, they've been held to two goals or less in nine consecutive games. The Flyers are known for their scoring prowess, but they have something to build on defensively as well after a 3-2 win over the Wild on Saturday. That was a much-needed bounce back following Friday's collapse in Toronto. The 'under' is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in this series, so 5-1 when considering a total of 5.5. I'll call for a similar result here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-14-16 | Bengals v. Giants UNDER 47.5 | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and New York at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in New Jersey on Monday night. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring results in their most recent games. In fact, the 'over' is a perfect 3-0 in the Bengals last three games. I don't see that streak continuing here, however. The Bengals have topped out at 31 points this season, and that performance came against the lowly Browns. I don't expect to see them approach that number here. The Giants have topped out at 28 points, doing so last week against the Eagles. It's worth noting that the G-Men scored two quick touchdowns in the first six minutes of that game before putting up only 14 points the rest of the way. Both defenses are better than they have shown and both offenses have been inconsistent at best. I'm surprised so many bettors are quick to back the 'over' in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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11-13-16 | Winnipeg v. BC UNDER 55 | 31-32 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and B.C. at 4:30 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in B.C. on Sunday afternoon. Both regular season meetings between these two squads sailed 'over' the total but I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. Yes, the Blue Bombers excelled offensively against the Lions in those two October meetings, but the blueprint is certainly there to slow this unit down after Ottawa held them to only 10 points just two weeks ago. The Lions come in with plenty of defensive momentum, having allowed just 49 points over their last three games combined. Prior to this year, the Bombers had held the Lions to 28 points or less in five consecutive meetings. Now obviously that has little bearing on today's game, but it is still worth noting. The Bombers know that they're up against it here on the road against an opponent that will be highly-motivated after dropping both regular season meetings. I'm not anticipating a shootout. Take the under (10*). |
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11-13-16 | Texans v. Jaguars OVER 42 | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show | |
AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Jacksonville on Sunday afternoon. The last time these two teams met they combined to score just 36 points in a blowout victory in favor of the Texans. However, that came in the final week of the 2015 regular season. I expect a game here more similar to the 31-20 result in October 2015. The Texans are coming off a 20-13 home win over the Lions and enter this one off of their bye week. Remember, just two games back the Texans essentially hit rock bottom - at least on offense - in a 27-9 loss to the Broncos (we won with Denver on that night). I still believe these Texans have plenty of upside on offense and I'm confident they'll enjoy plenty of success against a very beatable Jags defense. Meanwhile, Jacksonville's offense has done nothing of late, but does draw a favorable matchup here. The Texans defense has been undermanned for much of the season with J.J. Watt sidelined and I'm not convinced that unit will bring its 'A' game on Sunday. The 'over' is 3-2 in each of these teams' last five games overall and I'll back that modest trend here on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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11-12-16 | California v. Washington State UNDER 83.5 | 21-56 | Win | 100 | 32 h 19 m | Show | |
CFB Late Night O/U Bailout. My selection is on the 'under' between California and Washington State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Washington State's blowout win over Arizona last week but I'll switch gears and back the 'under' this time around. Cal is coming off an absolute beatdown at the hands of Washington last week and certainly hasn't performed up to standards defensively of late. After four consecutive terrible showings on defense, I do expect the Bears to at least get a few stops and play with some pride on Saturday night in Pullman. Note that Cal held Washington State to 28 points in last year's meeting. I have more respect for the Cougars defense than most. They absolutely manhandled Arizona last Saturday and have actually done a pretty good job on the defensive side of the ball, particularly here at home, after a rocky start to the season. While Cal does boast an explosive offense, I'm confident we'll see the Cougars do a fairly good job of keeping that unit in check. The 'over' has gone 3-1 in Cal's last four games overall and 3-1 in Wazzou's last three. That has certainly been factored into this total when you consider last year's total closed at 73.5 and the year previous we saw a 67.5. Take the under (10*). |
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11-12-16 | Stanford v. Oregon OVER 57 | Top | 52-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Stanford and Oregon at 4 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' at Autzen Stadium on Saturday afternoon. We missed the mark with the 'over in Stanford's most recent game - a double-digit win over Oregon State last Saturday. A goal-line stand in the final minutes was all that kept that one from going 'over' (and Stanford from covering the spread). We came out on the wrong end of that one, but I won't hesitate to go back to the well here. The Cardinal at least made some positive strides offensively last week. In fact, Stanford has scored 60 points over its last two games which is major progress considering how it had performed earlier in the campaign. I'm confident we'll see Stanford get loose offensively against a weak Oregon defense that hasn't really slowed anyone down this season. The Ducks have allowed at least 35 points in all six Pac-12 games to date. The good news for Oregon is that it has enjoyed some offensive success this season and I'm not convinced Stanford is quite as good defensively as it has showed in recent weeks. Slowing the Ducks down on this field will be a challenge for the Cardinal, noting that Oregon has scored 53, 44, 38, 21 and 54 points at home this season. Last year's meeting between these two teams barely crept 'over' the total but we were dealing with a higher posted total on that occasion. This number remains in a reasonable range thanks to Stanford's offensive struggles more than anything else. Take the over (10*). |
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11-12-16 | Pittsburgh v. Clemson UNDER 65.5 | Top | 43-42 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 35 m | Show |
ACC Super Total. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Clemson at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. After posting a shutout against Syracuse last Saturday some are anticipating a defensive letdown from Clemson in this matchup, at least based on the relatively high total we're dealing with. However, I'm confident we'll see the Tigers manhandle the Panthers in this one. Pittsburgh put up 28 points in last week's blowout loss at Miami, but it was fortunate to get to that number, thanks to a 100-yard kickoff return. The Panthers offense actually struggled with QB Nathan Peterman completing only 17-of-35 passes and RB James Conner gaining only 40 yards on 12 carries. It's hard to envision the Panthers bouncing back in this tough matchup. I feel that the Panthers are running out of gas after being involved in so many wild, high-scoring affairs early in the season. Yes, they're still in good position to reach a Bowl game but back-to-back losses to Virginia Tech and Miami have struck a blow. Pitt won't be interested in getting involved in another shootout here - it simply doesn't have the the type of defense that could possibly get enough stops down the stretch to prevail. It desperately needs to tighten things up on that side of the football or it is going to get its doors blown off again here. I'm confident we'll see the Clemson defense do enough, and for the offense to take its foot off the gas enough down the stretch to keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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11-11-16 | Pistons v. Spurs OVER 193 | 86-96 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and San Antonio at 8:35 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in the Spurs most recent game but I won't hesitate to switch gears in this spot. I fully expect to see the Spurs bounce back tonight, but I also don't envision the Pistons rolling over off back-to-back ugly road losses. Detroit is still winless on the road this season at 0-4 so it will obviously be highly-motivated for this game. Perhaps moreso considering the Spurs swept last year's season series with relative ease. Neither of these teams have been able to play consistently solid defensive basketball this season and I don't see anything changing on Friday as both respond, and this one sails over the total. Take the over (10*). |
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11-11-16 | Flyers v. Maple Leafs OVER 5.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I'm not going to ramble on about this play. The fact is, both teams can score, and both teams are in excellent position to bounce back. The Flyers have suffered consecutive losses while the Leafs are off a 7-0 loss to the Kings on home ice on Wednesday. Note that Philadelphia has posted a 6-2 o/u record over its last eight contests. Meanwhile, Toronto has seen its last two games play 'over' the total. Neither team has received solid goaltending this season and both likely come into this game with the mindset that they'll need to score four or more goals in order to secure a victory. Take the over (10*). |
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