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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-19-17 | Canadiens v. Canucks UNDER 5.5 | 7-5 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. It might be tough for the Canucks to generate offense in the short-term picture with rookie standout Brock Boeser sidelined with a foot injury. Boeser isn't expected to miss a considerable amount of time but his absence will certainly be felt in the meantime. As for the Habs, they continue to do nothing offensively, scoring a grand total of three goals over their last three games. Things really can't get much worse at this point, and I suspect we'll see them look to Carey Price to try to salvage something on this western road swing. Totals set at 5.5 have been the norm this season, but in this case, I believe that number will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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12-19-17 | Akron v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 65 | 3-50 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Akron and Florida Atlantic at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in Tuesday's Boca Raton Bowl. Neither team has had much trouble scoring this season but that has provided us with a lofty total to work with here. Akron's defense has been extremely opportunistic with 19 interceptions and four touchdowns on the season. Florida Atlantic is certainly well aware of the Zips knack for creating turnovers, however, and Lane Kiffin has had plenty of time to drive that point home to his players. The Owls rely heavily on sophomore RB Devin Singletary, who racked up nearly 1,800 yards and 29 touchdowns on the ground this season. You can be sure Akron has watched plenty of game film of Singletary leading up to this one and will do everything it can to at least slow him down. I believe we'll see plenty of long drives in this one, ultimately chewing enough clock to keep the final score 'under' the inflated total. Take the under (10*). |
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12-18-17 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 48 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Tampa Bay at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I don't believe either of these teams will have trouble moving the football on Monday night. The Falcons stumbled last week against New Orleans, but still managed to prevail in a rather ugly 20-17 affair. I expect them to bounce back in a big way offensively here - QB Matt Ryan in particular. Meanwhile, the Bucs have had some success putting points on the board against the Falcons, even if it hasn't resulted in much success in the win column. Note that Tampa Bay has scored at least 20 points in four straight games. With that being said, it has lost three games in a row and will be highly-motivated to respond here. Keep an eye on Bucs RB Peyton Barber in particular in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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12-17-17 | Packers v. Panthers UNDER 47 | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. I just don't see this one turning into a shootout, despite the high posted total. The Packers will have Aaron Rodgers back under center but how effective will he be following a long injury layoff? Meanwhile, the Panthers put up 30+ points against a good Vikings defense last week but that was more a case of Minnesota beating itself as far as I'm concerned. QB Cam Newton remains wildly inconsistent throwing the football and he'll be facing a highly-motivated Packers defense here. Take the under (10*). |
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12-16-17 | Oregon v. Boise State OVER 61 | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 43 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Boise State and Oregon at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. It seemed like Oregon got its groove back in its final two regular season games, putting up a whopping 117 points in blowout wins over Arizona and Oregon State. Mind you, both of those victories came in Autzen, but with a relatively short layoff I’m confident the Ducks can pick up right where they left off against an admittedly tough Boise State squad on Saturday in Las Vegas. Boise State was involved in a defensive slugfest against Fresno State in the Mountain West Conference championship game two weeks ago. That wasn’t all that surprising as the two teams had just gone head-to-head the previous week. Here, we have a matchup between two teams that are not nearly as familiar with one another. Prior to those two games against the Bulldogs, the Broncos had scored 41, 41, 59 and 44 points over a four-game stretch – all victories. In fact, they had reeled off seven consecutive wins. I’m anticipating a spirited, high-scoring affair between two teams that may be disappointed to be playing in a pre-Christmas Bowl game, but that will put on a show nonetheless. Take the over (10*). |
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12-16-17 | North Texas v. Troy UNDER 62.5 | 30-50 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Troy and North Texas at 1 pm et on Saturday. I think the main reason we’re looking at such a high total in this matchup between two former Sun Belt Conference rivals is the fact that it will be played on the ‘fast track’ at the Superdome in New Orleans. While that should play a factor in handicapping this matchup, it’s not the real story. We have a matchup between two coaching staffs that are very familiar with one another. Perhaps the offensive standout in the game is North Texas QB Mason Fine and the Trojans are certainly familiar with him, having recruited him hard prior to him electing to join the Mean Green Eagles. Troy quietly put together one of the best defensive campaigns of any team in college football and shouldn’t flinch in this matchup. Meanwhile, North Texas will be highly motivated after getting routed by Florida Atlantic in its conference title game. The pointspread is relatively low for a reason. I believe we’ll see a competitive affair between these two squads in a game that stays ‘under’ the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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12-14-17 | Islanders v. Blue Jackets UNDER 6 | 4-6 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Tough spot for the Islanders here playing on the second of back-to-back nights after an ugly showing at home against Dallas on Wednesday. The Isles just aren't scoring with any consistency right now and I believe they'll have a tough time breaking through against a highly-motivated Blue Jackets squad that is coming off a 7-2 rout at the hands of the Oilers on Tuesday. Note that in their previous game, the Jackets had delivered a 1-0 victory over Arizona. Columbus has only two wins in its last five games overall, scoring 3, 1, 5, 1 and 2 goals over that stretch. Note that the last two meetings in this series have totaled 4 and 5 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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12-13-17 | Blazers v. Heat OVER 202 | 102-95 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Miami at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in Miami's most recent game in Memphis on Monday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Heat scored 107 points in that eventual rout of the Grizzlies, despite the fact that the game was played at a very slow pace. That marked the third straight game in which Miami scored at least 101 points. Portland is coming off five straight losses but has scored 117 and 104 points over its last two contests. Desperate for a win here, I believe we'll see the Blazers push the pace at every opportunity. Note that the last meeting between these two teams, right here in Miami last March, totaled 219 points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-12-17 | Senators v. Sabres UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Here we have a matchup of two divisional foes that just aren't scoring with any consistency right now. The Senators are reeling and have been for weeks - really going all the way back to their trip to Sweden back in early November. They've been shut out in three of their last four games overall. Meanwhile, Buffalo was shut out in three consecutive games in late November/early December and has topped out at two goals or less in six of its last seven games overall. This doesn't figure to be the matchup to get either offense going noting the last seven meetings have totaled 3, 4, 3, 3, 9, 4 and 5 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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12-11-17 | Patriots v. Dolphins OVER 47.5 | 20-27 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New England and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I just don't see where the stops come from on Monday night. The Patriots defense was terrific in Buffalo last week, but after eight straight games allowing 17 points or less, I believe it suffers a bit of a letdown here. Offensively, the Pats will be without Rob Gronkowski but I expect them to continue to churn along, with Tom Brady in particular in line for a big week after being held out of the end zone last Sunday. The Dolphins have had a tough season for sure, but have still managed to score 20 points or more in four of their last five games. Defensively, they've been a mess. They did perform well last week, but that was against the Broncos. Different story here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-11-17 | Heat v. Grizzlies OVER 194 | 107-82 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Memphis at 8:05 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' in Memphis on Monday night. The Heat allowed just 89 points in a double-digit win over Brooklyn last time out, but don't count on similar defensive commitment and success from Miami in this spot. Generally speaking, the Heat defense has been non-existent in recent weeks. The Grizzlies will certainly be looking to 'get right' in this spot and I see it as an excellent matchup for them to take advantage of. Memphis has lost three games in a row but on a positive note, has scored over 100 points in back-to-back games, albeit needing overtime to do so in its last contest against Oklahoma City. Take the over (10*). |
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12-11-17 | Capitals v. Islanders UNDER 6 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and New York at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in Brooklyn on Monday night. The Caps are fresh off four straight wins, although all four of those victories came at home, so we can expect a bit of a letdown here. Meanwhile, the Islanders, who had been red hot offensively, have scored just 2, 3 and 2 goals in suffering three straight road losses in Tampa, Pittsburgh and Boston. Tough spot to bounce-back here against the surging Caps and goaltender Braden Holtby, who is playing excellent hockey right now. Solid value with the 'under' at the current price point. Take the under (10*). |
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12-10-17 | Ravens v. Steelers OVER 43.5 | 38-39 | Win | 100 | 55 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Pittsburgh at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. When you think of this matchup one of the first things that probably comes to mind is hard-nosed defensive football. I expect a much different story to unfold on Sunday night in Pittsburgh, however. The Ravens have scored 90 points in reeling off three straight wins. Their defense has performed well over that stretch, but they've done so against three struggling offenses in the Packers, Texans and Lions. We won with the 'under' in the Steelers come-from-behind Monday night win in Cincinnati. Here, I feel their defense takes a real hit with the absence of Ryan Shazier. Don't count on this being the same defensive unit we saw in the second half Monday night, when they were fueled by emotion after losing Shazier. Last year's late season matchup here in Pittsburgh totaled 58 points. Expect another high-scoring affair on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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12-09-17 | Army v. Navy UNDER 46 | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Army and Navy at 3 pm et on Saturday. Year after year, we play the 'under' in the Army-Navy game and year after year, we cash our ticket. Nothing changes here in 2017. Snow is in the forecast for Philadelphia on Saturday. Were we talking about two passing teams I might hesitate to back the 'under', but in a run-dominated affair, I'm confident weather won't help the offenses one bit. After giving up no more than 28 points in any game during a six-game winning streak, the Black Knights were torched for 52 at North Texas last time out. Expect a bounce-back performance against a familiar foe here. Meanwhile, Navy had a few tough outings defensively, but closed out the regular season giving up just 24 points against Notre Dame and Houston, on the road no less. The clock will be moving all afternoon long, and I look for a couple of key red zone turnovers to ultimately help keep this one 'under' the posted total. Take the under (10*). |
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12-07-17 | Hurricanes v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in San Jose on Thursday night. The Hurricanes are struggling. They've won just twice in their last seven games. They've scored only five goals in regulation time in their last four games. The Sharks haven't been great lately either. Save for a three-game winning streak in late November it's been a tough go. They've scored just three goals in their last two games and have topped the three goal mark only twice over their last 11 contests. The 'over' is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series but that only serves to give us value with the 'under' in this spot. Take the under (10*). |
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12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons UNDER 52 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Atlanta at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. This is the first meeting between these two teams this season after last year's two matchups sailed 'over' the total. I expect a different story to unfold this time around, however. The Falcons offense hasn't been nearly as prolific as it was last season. Save for a two-game stretch against Seattle and Tampa Bay in November, they simply haven't been scoring touchdowns with any consistency. Against a divisional opponent on Thursday night I don't think things get any easier. Meanwhile, the Saints have been scoring points in bunches, but have also faced some vulnerable defenses in recent weeks. Again, I think the familiarity of the Falcons defense with the Saints offense does come into play here. This is always pegged as a shootout, but the fact is the 'under' is 5-3-1 in the last nine meetings in the series. Take the under (10*). |
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12-05-17 | Blues v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -121 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Montreal at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Canadiens lit up the scoreboard for 10 goals against the reeling Red Wings on Saturday night but I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday as they welcome the Blues to Montreal. It should be back to business as usual as the Habs had previously been winning on the strength of solid defensive play and goaltending. Carey Price has been a rock since returning to the crease from injury. And Montreal's much-beleaguered defensive corps has certainly taken a step in the right direction as well. The Blues play smart hockey on the road, where they've gone 8-3-2 this season. They know this isn't likely going to be an up and down affair. Fresh off a 2-1 overtime loss in Minnesota, they'll be aiming to get back in the win column on the strength of another fine defensive effort tonight. Take the under (10*). |
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12-05-17 | Devils v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Jersey and Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in Newark on Tuesday night. Here we have a matchup of two of the steadiest goaltenders in the league this season, as Cory Schneider is expected to go up against Sergei Bobrovsky. It's certainly still early, but this game should feature the ever-cliched 'playoff atmosphere' as these two teams battle atop the Metropolitan Division. The Devils aren't scoring with much consistency right now, having found the back of the net just four times over their last three games. They were held off the scoresheet entirely in a 5-0 loss in Arizona last time out. Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets have scored at least four goals just once in their last four contests. After giving up four goals on a rare occasion in their most recent contest, I look for them to tighten things up considerably tonight. Take the under (10*). |
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12-04-17 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 43.5 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 8:30 pm et on Monday. Prior to last night's low-scoring affair in Seattle, 'overs' had been on quite a run in primetime NFL action. Here, I'm going to back the 'under' as two familiar AFC North foes do battle in a key December matchup. Familiarity is the main logic behind this play. Both teams know what to expect from their opponent, and it certainly helps having a little extra time to prepare for this matchup. The Steelers could be without WR Antonio Brown, although I'm making this play assuming he suits up. On the flip side, we've seen some signs of life from the Bengals offense but I'm still not sold that they'll be able to move the football with any consistency against a serviceable Steelers defense. This total is a bit high in my estimation. Take the under (10*). |
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12-02-17 | Miami-FL v. CLEMSON OVER 46 | 3-38 | Loss | -107 | 30 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Clemson at 8 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' in Saturday's ACC Championship Game. The oddsmakers are in a tough spot here and have moved the total down from its opener, largely due to the 'Canes poor showing at Pitt on Black Friday. Miami scored only 14 points against a vulnerable defense in that game. I do expect the 'Canes to bounce back in a big way here. After all, this is a team that had produced 85 points in two games previous to that setback at Pitt. Clemson has given up just 27 points over its last three games. But I believe the real story is the Tigers offense, which has put up 126 points over its last three contests. The 'over' has gone 2-1-1 in the Tigers last four games but that's no match for the 'Canes 2-9 o/u record this season. I simply feel that we're in for a higher scoring affair than the oddsmakers are calling for in this showdown. Take the over (10*). |
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12-02-17 | Memphis v. Central Florida UNDER 81 | Top | 55-62 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
CFB Championship Saturday Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Central Florida at 12 noon et on Saturday. These two teams have combined to post a 15-7 o/u record this season but as we've learned year after year, Championship Saturday is a different animal in college football. Both of these offenses are outstanding - among the best in the nation. But they've also beat up on mostly terrible defensive units from the AAC over the course of the season. Here, I look for both teams to bring their 'A' game defensively, and even if both units are vulnerable, I believe they're capable of stepping up in this winner take all affair. Note that Memphis hasn't scored more than 17 points in a game in this series since 2008. Since then, the 'under' has gone 4-1-1 in six meetings. Take the under (10*). |
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11-30-17 | Stars v. Blackhawks UNDER 6 | 4-3 | Loss | -107 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. The 'under' has gone 3-1 in the Stars last four games and 4-1 in the Blackhawks last five contests overall. I'll stick with the trend here as this has been a relatively low-scoring series with only one of the last five matchups going 'over' six goals in regulation time. Most are anticipating a high-scoring affair, but I'm expecting more of a tightly-contested contest. Take the under (10*). |
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11-30-17 | Redskins v. Cowboys OVER 44.5 | Top | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
NFL Thursday Night Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Dallas at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'm anticipating a bit of a shootout in Arlington on Thursday night. The Redskins scored only 20 points against a struggling Giants defense, at home no less, on Thanksgiving Night but I'm not going to knock them for that ho-hum performance. We've seen QB Kirk Cousins renew acquaintances with WR Jamison Crowder and also WR Josh Doctson in recent weeks. Last Thursday Crowder went off for 141 yards on seven catches while Doctson kept up his hot hand with a touchdown as well. RB Samaje Perine looked good out of the backfield as well, running for 100 yards and adding three catches. I don't expect the Redskins to face much resistance against a Cowboys defense that is still missing its anchor, LB Sean Lee. Until he returns, this unit is vulnerable to say the least. The Cowboys offense has struggled mightily since losing RB Ezekiel Elliott to suspension but I'm anticipating a strong bounce-back performance here. There's no excuse for this offense now. The Cowboys were a no-show against the Chargers on Thanksgiving Day but now face a more manageable matchup against a Redskins defense that is also missing some key cogs. There's no doubt this is a huge game for both teams, perhaps a little moreso for the Cowboys on the heels of three straight losses. Look for them to finally find the end zone and spark what should be an entertaining NFC East showdown on Thursday night. Take the over (10*). |
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11-29-17 | Pacers v. Rockets OVER 222 | Top | 97-118 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Houston at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I'm confident we're going to see a track meet between the Pacers and Rockets in Houston on Wednesday. Indiana is coming off a 121-109 home win over the Magic on Monday night. That marked the third straight game in which Indiana allowed at least 104 points. Things obviously won't get any easier here as they hit the road to face the high-octane Rockets. Houston has scored at least 117 points in four of its last five games - all victories. We've seen the Rockets lag a little bit defensively over their last couple, however, giving up 102 and 103 points against the Knicks and Nets. They'll face a tougher challenge here as the Pacers are averaging over 110 points per game on the road this season. We're dealing with a high posted total here, but it's warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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11-28-17 | Kings v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 47 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in Motown on Tuesday night. Here we have an expected matchup of two goaltenders playing exceptionally well in the early going this season in Jonathan Quick and Jimmy Howard. We also have two teams that are having a tough time finding the back of the net right now. The Kings have scored 2, 1, 2, 1, 4, 2, 1, 2 and 1 goal in regulation time over their last nine contests. Meanwhile, the Red Wings have dropped four games in a row, scoring a grand total of just nine goals in the process. Two meetings between these two teams last season totaled five and four goals. Take the under (10*). |
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11-27-17 | Texans v. Ravens OVER 38 | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 25 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Baltimore at 8:30 pm et on Monday. The 'under' has cashed in four of the last five meetings in this series and given the way things have gone for these two teams this season, most are anticipating a bit of a stinker in Baltimore on Monday night. I'm not so easily convinced. We saw a glimpse of why the Texans chose Tom Savage as their starting QB prior to the start of the season in last week's 31-21 win over the Cardinals. I look for Savage and DeAndre Hopkins to find plenty of success against the Ravens on Monday. Meanwhile, we've seen the Ravens offense start to show signs of life lately. QB Joe Flacco was sharp in last week's victory in Green Bay. While he doesn't have a wealth of talent around him, he did get do-it-all RB Danny Woodhead back in the fold last Sunday and I expect him to make an impact in this game. We're dealing with a low total here - a little too low in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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11-27-17 | Blue Jackets v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Columbus and Montreal at 7:35 pm et on Monday. It's probably only a matter of time before we start seeing totals set at '5' in games involving the Blue Jackets. But it won't happen here, not after the Jackets skated to a 5-2 blowout win over the Senators last time out. The Habs welcomed Carey Price back to the ice on Saturday night and he proceeded to post a shutout victory over the Sabres. They'll face a tougher challenge here, but I expect to see another strong showing from Price, who made some minor adjustments after a poor start to the season. We've seen a grand total of five goals in regulation time over the last three meetings in this series, with the Jackets taking the most recent matchup by a 2-1 score in overtime on November 14th in Montreal. Take the under (10*). |
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11-26-17 | Broncos v. Raiders OVER 42.5 | 14-21 | Loss | -112 | 20 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Denver and Oakland at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I’m expecting a high-scoring affair as two reeling AFC West squads do battle in Oakland on Sunday afternoon. The Raiders came out completely unprepared against the Patriots last Sunday in Mexico City, a mistake that I don’t believe we’ll see them make twice. Here, they face a much more favorable matchup against a Broncos defense that has been forced to shoulder too much of the load, and really hasn’t lived up to its end of the bargain since the first month of the season. The Broncos are hoping their offense will get a spark from QB Paxton Lynch. While he’s not the cure for what ails the Broncos as a whole, I do feel that a more simplified approach should serve them well against a very beatable Oakland defense. The Raiders aren’t stopping anyone right now, and even against a disjointed Broncos offense, they’ll be hard-pressed to turn things around. The first meeting between these two teams was a sloppy defensive struggle. Don’t count on a repeat of that here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-25-17 | Boston College v. Syracuse UNDER 58 | 42-14 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Boston College and Syracuse at 12:20 pm et on Saturday. Boston College has certainly proved itself defensively during its current 4-1 run, and in particular over its last four contests. Over that stretch, the Eagles have allowed just 46 points combined. Meanwhile, Syracuse is simply playing out the string thanks to an untimely four-game losing streak (which came on the heels of a huge upset win over Clemson). The wheels have come off for the Orange defense over their last two games, giving up a combined 120 points. I do expect to see them play with some pride on Saturday at the Carrier Dome, however, as they offer some resistance against a middle of the road Boston College offense. Take the under (10*). |
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11-25-17 | Connecticut v. Cincinnati OVER 57.5 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Connecticut and Cincinnati at 12 pm et on Saturday. It certainly appears that both of these three-win teams have checked out defensively and I’m not sure the oddsmakers can set this total high enough as a result. Connecticut has lost four games in a row, allowing 52, 37, 49 and 39 points along the way. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has dropped back-to-back games, giving up 35 and 48 points in the process. I do expect the offenses to show up on this occasion as both teams will be taking the field for the final time this season. The last meeting between these two teams was a 20-9 snoozefest in favor of UConn last year. Expect a different story to unfold this time around. Take the over (10*). |
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11-24-17 | Canucks v. Devils UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vancouver and New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We've been waiting for an 'under' result on the Canucks current road trip and this appears to be the spot. We've seen Vancouver light up the scoreboard in its last two games against the Flyers and Penguins but I think we'll see the Canucks face a stiffer defensive challenge against Cory Schneider and the Devils on Friday. New Jersey continues to get it done with defense as its offense hasn't been quite as consistent following a hot start to the campaign. As long as the winner doesn't surpass three goals our ticket will be cashed here. I believe that's a reasonable proposition in this spot. Take the under (10*). |
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11-22-17 | Nuggets v. Rockets OVER 228.5 | 95-125 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Houston at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. Not sure how this one stays 'under' as both the Nuggets and Rockets will be happy to get involved in a track meet on Wednesday night. The Nuggets are fresh off a rout of the Kings on Monday night, despite being undermanned. Paul Millsap remains sidelined but I'm still confident Denver can keep churning along offensively, just as it did last time out. Houston has scored over 100 points in 10 straight games but is coming off a stellar defensive performance as well against Memphis last weekend. Here, they shouldn't need to play elite defense as they should have little trouble scoring at will against the Nuggets. We're dealing with a very high total, but that's the norm in games involving these two teams. Take the over (10*). |
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11-21-17 | Canucks v. Flyers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Vancouver and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in Philadelphia on Tuesday night. The Canucks have hit another wall offensively, topping out at five goals over their last five games. They've generated just 71 shots on goal combined over their last three contests. While the Flyers can be vulnerable in their own end and just allowed five goals in an overtime loss to the Flames here on Saturday, they've actually given up an average of just 2.6 goals per game on home ice. On the flip side, Philadelphia has scored a grand total of only six goals over the course of its four-game losing streak. That skid included two overtime periods. We haven't seen a total of 5.5 in this series since 2015, when the Canucks skated to a 4-0 victory here in Philadelphia. Take the under (10*). |
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11-19-17 | Chiefs v. Giants OVER 45 | Top | 9-12 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. Not sure that either side is going to show up and play defense in this non-conference matchup on Sunday afternoon. The Chiefs are back at it after suffering a 28-17 loss in Dallas two weeks ago. The bye should serve them well as they aim to get their previously high-octane offense back in gear, and this is the perfect matchup to do just that as the Giants haven't played any semblance of defense in recent weeks. New York does continue to sling the football around on offense, even if they have struggled to put points on the board consistently. We saw them play right to the final whistle last week in San Francisco, scoring a touchdown on their final offensive drive of the game. WR Sterling Shepherd has quietly taken on the number one role while rookie TE Evan Engram has found excellent chemistry with Eli Manning. I don't expect the G-Men to hold anything back in this one, and the Chiefs defense has certainly been vulnerable since losing Eric Berry. Take the over (10*). |
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11-18-17 | Georgia Tech v. Duke OVER 46.5 | Top | 20-43 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
CFB ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Georgia Tech and Duke at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Last year’s meeting between these two teams totaled 73 points and I believe we’re dealing with an overreaction to the step back both squads have taken this year, particularly on the offensive side of the football. I’m confident we’ll see a high-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon in Durham. Both teams will certainly have ample motivation. Georgia Tech needs one more victory to become Bowl eligible while Duke will need to win its final two regular season games to accomplish that feat. The Yellow Jackets stunned Virginia Tech by a 28-22 score last week but haven’t won back-to-back games since September. While their offense hasn’t been all that consistent, it has certainly come up with big performances over the course of the season and I believe Duke is vulnerable against their option attack here. The Blue Devils have lost six straight games since opening the campaign with four wins in a row. Their offense, or lack thereof, has been the main culprit. However, as I mentioned, with Georgia Tech coming off a big victory last week, they could suffer a big of a defensive letdown here and open the door for a breakout performance from the Duke offense. I believe this total has been set at least a few points too low. Take the over (10*). |
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11-18-17 | Rice v. Old Dominion OVER 53 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
CFB C-USA Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Rice and Old Dominion at 2 pm et on Saturday. I fully expect to see an entertaining shootout between these two losing football teams on Saturday afternoon. Maybe shootout isn’t the appropriate word as I’m not sure either offense will rely on its passing attack to put points on the board in bunches. Instead I look for both ground games to run wild. After pitching a shutout against Charlotte, ODU was torched for 30 points by Florida International last week, but still managed to win the game by eight points on the strength of a big day from RB Ray Lawry. The ODU defense has been lit up more often than not this season, and while Rice is by no means an offensive juggernaut, I do expect the Owls to find some success after scoring 34 points in a losing effort last week. RB Nahshon Ellerbe ran for 153 yards and four scores in that game. I’m confident the losing side can get well into the 20’s in this contest, and that should put us in excellent shape with an ‘over’ ticket in hand. Take the over (10*). |
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11-18-17 | Virginia v. Miami-FL UNDER 51 | 28-44 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Virginia and Miami at 12 noon et on Saturday. I expect Virginia to take a more conservative approach after suffering a 38-21 loss at the hands of Louisville last week. The Cavaliers are well aware of how opportunistic the Miami defense is, and I don’t believe we’ll see them try to sling it all over the field. After a terrific start, Virginia has now lost three of its last four games, but has already gained Bowl eligibility. Save for a 40-point performance against Georgia Tech, its offense has been stuck in the mud for the last month or so. Meanwhile, the Canes are fresh off a 41-8 dismantling of Notre Dame last Saturday. They’ll simply be looking for a clean victory here to improve to a perfect 10-0 on the season. Keep in mind, last week marked the first time since September 29th the Canes eclipsed the 28-point mark. While ‘style points’ would be welcomed, I’m not sure the Canes get those in this particular matchup. Take the under (10*). |
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11-15-17 | Rangers v. Blackhawks UNDER 6 | 3-6 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Blackhawks are coming off a wild game against the Devils on Sunday night but I expect a much different story to unfold on Wednesday night as they welcome the Rangers to the United Center. That 7-5 loss to the Devils was certainly uncharacteristic of the Blackhawks. Note that they had allowed three goals or less in five straight games prior. Here, they'll need to tighten things up before heading out on a three-game road trip through Pittsburgh and Florida. The Rangers are suddenly red hot, having won six games in a row. While their offense has been rolling, they've also allowed just seven goals over their last three contests. Scoring is up across the league this season, leading to a lot of '6' totals, as we're working with here. I believe that total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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11-12-17 | Patriots v. Broncos UNDER 44.5 | 41-16 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New England and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in the Sunday night showdown between the Patriots and Broncos. Denver got absolutely ripped in Philadelphia last Sunday, with the defense getting no help from the offense, which simply wasn't able to stay on the field or take care of the football. I do expect to see the Broncos defense unite and come up with a big effort against the Patriots on Sunday night. On the flip side, I'm not anticipating much improvement from the Broncos offense with Brock Osweiler at the helm. If anything we should see Denver rely heavily on its running game. The Patriots will be without WR Chris Hogan for this game, and that's a key absence. Sure, there are plenty of other talented players able to step up in Hogan's absence, but this is an offense that has been inconsistent over its last four games. The last meeting between these two teams totaled only 19 points last December. Take the under (10*). |
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11-12-17 | Giants v. 49ers UNDER 42 | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Santa Clara on Sunday afternoon. The Giants defense was absolutely embarrassed in last week's home thrashing at the hands of the Rams. After watching the tape of that dreadful performance I think we can count on them bringing a much stronger effort against a weak 49ers offense. San Francisco has scored exactly 10 points in each of its last three contests. Save for a 39-point outburst against the Rams with Brian Hoyer under center earlier in the season, this is an offense that hasn't been able to get anything going. Defensively, we have seen the Niners make some positive strides, and there's certainly a lot to build off of after giving up only 20 points against the Cardinals last Sunday. While I would like to be working with a higher total in this one, I do believe the current number is playable. Take the under (10*). |
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11-12-17 | Chargers v. Jaguars OVER 40.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Jacksonville on Sunday afternoon. The last time we saw the Chargers they were struggling to a 21-13 loss in New England two weeks ago. There were some positives to take from that setback, however, most notably the performance of RB Melvin Gordon who ran for 132 yards and a score. While the Jaguars defense has been terrific as a whole this season, it has still allowed the opposition to run for just shy of five yards per rush. I expect Gordon to turn in another strong performance here, which obviously works to help open things up for Philip Rivers and the passing game as well. On the flip side, Jags RB Leonard Fournette was suspended for last Sunday's game. He'll be back tomorrow and I expect him to run like a man possessed. Like the Jags defense, the Chargers have been stout, but not particularly strong against the run, giving up 4.6 yards per rush. Fournette should set up the Jags aerial attack here. We're dealing with a reasonably low total in what should be a competitive game on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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11-09-17 | Seahawks v. Cardinals OVER 41.5 | 22-16 | Loss | -108 | 48 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Arizona at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. 'Overs' continue to cash at an amazing clip in NFL primetime games and I'm not about to go against that trend on Thursday night, even as two familiar, defensive-minded foes prepare to go at it in Arizona. Seattle couldn't get anything going offensively until the fourth quarter in an eventual loss to Washington last week. The Redskins threw everything they had at the Seahawks and came away winners. This time around, I expect to see the Seahawks offense get loose against a Cardinals defense that made quick work of the lowly 49ers last Sunday. Offensively, Arizona has received a spark from veteran RB Adrian Peterson. This is a different offense than we saw a few weeks ago, even with Drew Stanton under center. We saw an ugly 6-6 tie between these two teams the last time they squared off (in another primetime affair) last season. I'm expecting more in the way of offensive fireworks this time around, however. Take the over (10*). |
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11-07-17 | Blues v. Devils UNDER 5.5 | 3-1 | Win | 102 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Tough spot for the Devils here, returning home following a long road trip. They'll be hosting one of the best teams in the NHL so far this season in the St. Louis Blues, and I don't believe New Jersey will be interested in getting involved in an up and down affair. Both teams have gotten terrific goaltending this season and I believe we'll see more of the same here. Note that the last three meetings in this series here in New Jersey have totaled just 1, 2 and 5 goals. We're getting terrific value with the 'under' in this spot based on the way the two teams have played offensively. Take the under (10*). |
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11-06-17 | Lions v. Packers OVER 42.5 | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Green Bay at 8:30 pm et on Monday. A big adjustment to the total here in the absence of Aaron Rodgers for the Packers. The last time these two teams met last season we saw a total north of 50 points. While I'm not anticipating an outright shootout in this one, I do believe we'll see both offenses do enough to push the final score 'over' the conservative total. The Lions couldn't get anything going last week, but that was against a steadily improving Steelers defense. Here they'll be up against a Packers 'd' that may be caught trying to do too much in the absence of Rodgers. On the flip side, coming off the bye week, I'm expecting a much sharper performance from the Packers offense, even with Brett Hundley under center. This is still an offense with plenty of talent, particularly at the wide receiver position. We've seen the Lions defense get throttled before, and I won't be surprised if it happens again. Take the over (10*). |
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11-05-17 | Bengals v. Jaguars OVER 38 | 7-23 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Jacksonville on Sunday as I anticipate an RB showdown between Joe Mixon and Leonard Fournette. Mixon hasn't been happy with his involvement in the Bengals offense, but here I look for him to take a central role as Cincinnati aims for its fourth win in five games. The Jaguars defense has been fierce to be sure, but the Bengals are playing with some confidence and I believe they'll come up with a gameplan to relieve the pressure on QB Andy Dalton. Despite their struggles this season, there's no question the Bengals still have plenty of offensive playmakers. Meanwhile, lost in the play of the Jags stellar defense has been the steady production of the Jacksonville offense. I'm confident they'll keep it rolling against a Bengals team that just allowed 23 points against a weak Colts offense last Sunday. Note that the last meeting between these two teams reached 56 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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11-04-17 | Arizona v. USC UNDER 76.5 | Top | 35-49 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 59 m | Show |
CFB Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Arizona and USC at 10:45 pm et on Saturday. I’m not anticipating the type of shootout the oddsmakers are calling for in Los Angeles on Saturday night. Yes, this sets up as a fantastic matchup between two nationally ranked Pac-12 foes, both with offenses that can put points on the board in a hurry. However, I’m confident the Trojans athletes on the defensive side of the football will give the Wildcats offense some trouble, and that sets the tone for this contest in my opinion. Arizona will stick around as this is a confident bunch that certainly doesn’t want to throw away all it has accomplished already this season, having gone 4-1 in Pac-12 play. But I don’t believe the Wildcats will be successful in turning this into a track meet (or maybe they’d prefer to take their chances in a lower-scoring affair). Either way, I don’t think the winning side sniffs out 40. Take the under (10*). |
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11-02-17 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 43 | Top | 21-34 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
NFL AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and New York at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair between these AFC East rivals on Thursday night. The Bills have scored 30+ points in back-to-back games but those came against reeling defenses in the Bucs and Raiders. Different story here as save for a fourth quarter lapse against the Dolphins, the Jets defense has held up pretty well. Keep in mind, the first meeting between these two teams this season totaled only 33 points. Offensively, New York has put up 48 points in its last two contests. That type of production isn't sustainable given the makeup of its offense, however. At least in my opinion. The Bills added WR Kelvin Benjamin prior to the trade deadline but it's unlikely he'll make an immediate impact. On the flip side, the Jets will aim to turn this into a slugfest. At home, they'll have a puncher's chance of doing just that. Take the under (10*). |
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11-01-17 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan OVER 47 | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Central Michigan and Western Michigan at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not anticipating a defensive slugfest between these two in-state rivals on Wednesday night. Central Michigan allowed just nine points in a rout of Ball State a week-and-a-half ago but should have a much tougher time containing a Western Michigan offense that averages close to five yards per rush this season. Meanwhile, the Broncos have allowed only 31 points combined over their last two games. Keep in mind, just three games back they were torched for 68 points in a wild overtime victory over Buffalo (that game totaled 62 points in regulation time). Remember, earlier this season, Western Michigan was also involved in a game totaling 80 points against USC. The 'over' is 4-2 in the last six meetings in this series although last year's matchup did stay 'under' the number. While I'm not calling for a shootout here, I do believe these two teams will finish enough drives with 7's on the board to send this one 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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10-30-17 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 42.5 | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -106 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
NFL AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Kansas City at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at Arrowhead Stadium on Monday night. Two familiar AFC West foes will go at it in this one and I'm expecting points to come at a premium. The Denver defense is in full bounce-back mode after struggling against the Chargers and Giants in the last two weeks (of course they haven't had much help from their offense staying on the field). The Chiefs got torched for 31 points in Oakland last week. Things won't get much easier on Monday as the Broncos will likely open up the playbook coming off a shutout loss. The last meeting between these two teams came on Christmas Night last year, as the Chiefs rolled to a 33-10 victory. The 'over' has actually gone 3-0-1 in the last four meetings in this series. That only sets us up with a posted total higher than it should be in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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10-29-17 | Raiders v. Bills OVER 46 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 18 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Buffalo on Sunday afternoon. Oakland's defense continues to struggle, not coming close to living up to the expectations that were set prior to the start of the season. Now the Raiders will have to handle a confident Bills offense that just put up 30 points in a winning effort against the Bucs. Oakland's offense came to life last week at home against Kansas City after lagging for weeks. Derek Carr is back in sync with his receivers and Jared Cook has added another element to the offense at TE. When these two teams met last season they combined to score 62 points in Oakland. Different venue this time around, but same result as far as the o/u goes. Take the over (10*). |
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10-28-17 | Georgia v. Florida OVER 43.5 | Top | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
CFB SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Georgia and Florida at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. The thinking here is that Florida will turn this game into a slugfest. I’m not so easily convinced that will be the case, however. The Georgia Bulldogs have evolved into an offensive juggernaut this season and I don’t see them getting derailed by the Gators. Florida has been involved in back-to-back low-scoring affairs, totaling just 69 points combined over its last two contests. Keep in mind, this is a team that put up 92 points during a three-game winning streak in the latter half of September though. Georgia looked nearly invincible defensively earlier in the season but does check into this game having allowed 42 points against Vandy and Missouri over its last two contests. We’re dealing with a low total in this matchup, too low in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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10-26-17 | Dolphins v. Ravens UNDER 37.5 | 0-40 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Baltimore at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Baltimore on Thursday night. When it comes down to it, I'm just not convinced either team can finish a lot of drives with 7's on the board playing on a short week. Miami staged a huge fourth quarter rally at home against the Jets last week, ultimately scoring 31 points in victory. Keep in mind, the Fins had put up just 61 points in their previous five games combined. On the flip side, the Ravens continue to sputter offensively, save for a breakout against a depleted Raiders squad a few weeks back (we cashed with Baltimore in that game). Baltimore has been held to 20 points or less on four different occasions this season. Last year, these two teams combined to score 44 points in a Ravens rout here in Baltimore. I'm anticipating a more competitive game this time around, and that lends itself to a lower scoring affair in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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10-26-17 | Flyers v. Senators UNDER 5.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Ottawa at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. After a red hot start, the Flyers have really cooled off offensively, scoring just four goals in losing two of their last three games overall. Things won't get much easier as they hit the road to face the Senators, who are coming off a loss of their own, on Thursday night in Ottawa. The Sens have lost three of their last four games so they know they need to tighten things up if they want to turn it around. Keep in mind, they'll be missing a couple of key cogs offensively in Kyle Turris and Bobby Ryan. On the other side, Nolan Patrick and Wayne Simmonds are both dealing with injuries for the Flyers. Philadelphia has one of the hottest goaltenders in the league in the young season in Michal Neuvirth. Take the under (10*). |
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10-26-17 | Jets v. Penguins OVER 6.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We saw two high-scoring affairs between these two teams last season and I expect nothing different this season. The Jets can't keep the puck out of their own net, but the good news is, they've been scoring enough to post a winning record, going 4-3 through seven contests. Winnipeg checks in having scored 17 goals during its current 4-1 run. The Pens were involved in a slugfest against the Oilers on Tuesday night. Expect a return to 'normal' here, however. After scoring just two goals in regulation time over their last two games, I look for the Penguins offense to respond favorably here. Take the over (10*). |
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10-24-17 | Bulls v. Cavs OVER 208.5 | Top | 112-119 | Win | 100 | 23 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Not a hard decision here. The Bulls got stuck in a slugfest against the Spurs last time out after allowing 117 points, while scoring 100 points themselves, in their season opener in Toronto. Expect a return to 'normal' here as Chicago won't be able to resist a track meet in Cleveland. The Cavs got lit up for 114 points at home against the Magic on Saturday so they'll undoubtedly be fired up for this bounce-back game. Keep in mind, in Cleveland's first two games this season it put up 102 and 116 points. It should have no trouble breaking through against a porous Bulls defense on Tuesday night. Take the over (10*). |
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10-23-17 | Redskins v. Eagles UNDER 49 | 24-34 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Philadelphia at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in this NFC East showdown on Monday night. Most expect the Redskins to get lit up in this one, given the fact that they're without their top corner in Josh Norman and also considering they allowed 24 points against a pitiful 49ers offense last Sunday. I expect Washington to make the necessary adjustments here, however, noting that it will be facing a familiar foe. The Eagles have allowed 27 points or less in all six games so far this season and gave up just 17 points in their season opener against these same Redskins. Philadelphia has gotten terrific running from LeGarrette Blount since losing Darren Sproles to injury. I look for the Redskins to do a better job of bottling up the Eagles ground game on Monday though. You would have to go back to December of 2015 to find the last time a matchup in this series toppled the total we're working with at the time of posting. Take the under (10*). |
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10-21-17 | Akron v. Toledo OVER 60.5 | Top | 21-48 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
CFB MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Akron and Toledo at 12 noon et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘over’ at the Glass Bowl on Saturday afternoon. Akron is coming off back-to-back strong defensive performances, giving up just 16 points combined in victories over Ball State and Western Michigan. I look for the Zips to struggle to contain the Rockets offense on Saturday, however. Akron can certainly put points on the board itself, even if it has been inconsistent in that regard this season. I see this as a favorable spot for the Zips offense to get rolling again after getting bottled up for much of the game against Western Michigan last week. The only blip on the Rockets schedule so far was a 52-30 road loss against Miami. Like Akron, Toledo has put forth a couple of solid defensive showings lately, giving up just 25 points combined in wins over Eastern and Central Michigan. But again, I’m not sure that’s sustainable. Last year’s meeting between these two teams totaled 65 points. I believe the potential is there for this one to eclipse that number. Take the over (10*). |
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10-20-17 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion OVER 47 | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Western Kentucky and Old Dominion at 6 pm et on Friday. I don't think the oddsmakers or the betting public are expecting much out of Old Dominion in this game, particularly on the offense side of the football. Quite the contrary, I expect the Monarchs to put some points on the board, the question is whether they can slow the Hilltoppers enough to keep this game within arm's reach. We won't worry about that, instead backing the 'over' and counting on a relatively high-scoring affair. Keep in mind, these two teams combined to score 83 points in last year's meeting. In fact, the 'over' has gone a perfect 3-0 in this series over the last three years, with each total being set in the 60's or 70's. I'm not convinced the big downward shift in the number is warranted. The Monarchs got RB Ray Lawry back last week and he made a minimal impact. Expect them to get their offense back in gear this Friday. Take the over (10*). |
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10-19-17 | Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 47 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 48 m | Show |
NFL Thursday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Oakland at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Oakland on Thursday night. The Chiefs are a little banged up following a physical, losing effort at home against the Steelers last Sunday. We saw the Pittsburgh defense do an excellent job of slowing down what had been an explosive Chiefs offense, and I expect to see some carry-over from those struggles as the reeling Raiders know exactly what is on the line in this AFC West showdown. Oakland got off to an impressive 2-0 start this season, but has since lost four games in a row, never scoring more than 17 points. Of course, an injury to QB David Carr contributed to that. He's back now, but didn't look all that in sync with the rest of the offense last Sunday and now faces a quick turnaround against a familiar opponent. The Chiefs defense has really only struggled in one game this season, that coming on the road against the Texans two weeks ago in a contest where they jumped ahead big early. I'm anticipating more of a nip-and-tuck affair on Thursday night, even with all the offensive weapons on both teams. Last season's two matchups totaled 36 and 34 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-17-17 | Panthers v. Flyers OVER 5.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Florida and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'over' in Philadelphia on Tuesday night. High-scoring games have been the norm for both of these teams in the early going this season. The Panthers have posted a 4-0 o/u record and are showing no signs of slowing down, having scored 16 goals through four contests. Their goaltending woes don't figure to sort themselves out any time soon, however, with Roberto Luongo on the downside of his illustrious NHL career. The Flyers scored eight goals in a rout of Washington on Saturday night. Like the Panthers, the Flyers don't exactly instill confidence between the pipes, even though Brian Elliott has looked good at times in the early going this season. This was an 'under' series last season but both teams are playing with more confidence right now, and I believe that lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans OVER 48 | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 25 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indianapolis and Tennessee at 8:30 pm et on Monday. This is an ugly Monday Nighter on paper but I believe the oddsmakers are correct in setting a relatively high total. Neither defense inspires much confidence. The Colts offense has started to show signs of life now that Jacoby Brissett has settled into the starting role, at least until Andrew Luck returns, which could be any week now. On the flip side, the Titans offense has been struggling, and was forced to turn to Matt Cassel last week. Marcus Mariota should be good to go on Monday and should give this offense a spark. The most recent matchup between these two teams was relatively low-scoring, reaching only 41 points, and that game saw an inflated posted total north of 50. Keep in mind, the 'over' had gone a perfect 3-0 in the previous three meetings in this series. Expect a return to 'normal' here. Take the over (10*). |
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10-15-17 | Lions v. Saints UNDER 50 | Top | 38-52 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 46 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in the Big Easy on Sunday afternoon. The Lions have been involved in two low-scoring road games already this season, totaling 34 points in New York (against the Giants) and 21 points in Minnesota. We saw the Lions defense get roughed up by Cam Newton and the Panthers last Sunday, but I expect a strong bounce-back performance here. Meanwhile, the Saints young defense has started to round into form, allowing just 13 points over their last two games combined. This is a unit that dealt with some early season headaches but has settled in of late, and draws a favorable matchup against a Lions offense that isn't exactly firing on all cylinders. We're dealing with a relatively high total here, just as we did in last year's matchup in New Orleans - a game that reached only 41 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-14-17 | Maple Leafs v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Leafs obviously need to tighten things up defensively if they're going to continue their strong start to the season. That was evident on Wednesday night as they gave up a whopping six goals in a loss to the Devils on home ice. Here, I expect them to turn in a far better showing in their own end against a Habs squad that is struggling to find the back of the net in the early going. The good news for Montreal is, it's early and they still have the world's best goaltender in Carey Price. They'll bounce back, and I'm confident it will be on the strength of Price's play on Saturday night. I'm not sure Montreal has the horses to endure a back and forth, high-scoring affair against the Leafs. The first to three likely wins this contest, which sets us up well with an 'under' ticket in hand. Take the under (10*). |
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10-14-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Army OVER 47 | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Eastern Michigan and Army at 12 noon et on Saturday. This has been a high-scoring series in recent years. The Eagles and Black Knights have met three times since 2012, with those three games totaling 86, 75 and 94 points. With that being said, the 'under' has cashed in each of Eastern Michigan's last eight games going back to last season. However, the Eagles have faced a number of defensive-minded squads so far this year. While Army can get involved in its share of slugfests, that hasn't been the case lately, as the Black Knights have scored 35 and 49 points in their last two games, with the 'over' cashing in both of those contests. Expect more of the same on Saturday. Take the over (10*). |
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10-13-17 | Ducks v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Anaheim and Colorado at 9:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Denver on Friday night. The Avalanche have busted out offensively in the early going this season, scoring 15 goals through their first four games. Keep in mind, they've yet to face a Western Conference opponent. Here, they'll be up against a familiar foe in the Ducks. Note that Anaheim held Colorado to a grand total of three goals in taking all three meetings last season. Since opening with a wild 5-4 win over the Coyotes, the Ducks have given up two goals in regulation time in each of their last three games. After giving up 41 shots on goal in their last game, a 3-2 victory over the Islanders, I don't think the Ducks will be interested in getting involved in a back and forth affair here. The Avs are hot right now. Look for Anaheim to do what it can to slow things down in this one. The 'under' is 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings in this series. I'll stick with the trend. Take the under (10*). |
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10-13-17 | Clemson v. Syracuse OVER 56 | 24-27 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Clemson and Syracuse at 7 pm et on Friday. These two teams have combined to record a 9-3 'under' mark so far this season but I'm going to go the other way and back the 'over' at the Carrier Dome on Friday night. Clemson hasn't really exploded offensively since hanging 47 points on Louisville a month ago. But this looks like a fine spot for the Tigers to get rolling offensively. Syracuse has only managed to hold two opposing offenses at bay this season, and those were Central Connecticut State and Central Michigan. The Orange will be facing a much different level of competition here. I do have some confidence in the Orange offense putting points on the board here. We've seen Syracuse step up in similar weeknight matchups over the years and here they catch the Tigers off three consecutive stellar defensive efforts, allowing 7, 17 and 14 points over their last three games. I believe we're in for a bit of a shootout on Friday night. Take the over (10*). |
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10-12-17 | Wild v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. The Blackhawks are coming off a relatively low-scoring affair in Montreal on Tuesday night but I expect a return to the norm as they head back home to host the still-winless Wild on Thursday night. Chicago managed to hold the Habs at bay last time out, but let's face it, Montreal is struggling mightily to find the back of the net right now. Different story here as the Wild can and will score. Minnesota fell just short in its last game, dropping a 5-4 shootout decision in Carolina. Expect the Wild to play with plenty of fire in this one, and for them to find some success against 'Hawks goaltender Corey Crawford. For its part, Chicago is finding its way offensively, with young players taking bigger roles. Look for a high-scoring affair at the United Center. Take the over (10*). |
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10-11-17 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 7.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in at Progressive Field on Wednesday night. I fully expect to see Indians starter Corey Kluber bounce back after a rough outing against the Yankees earlier in this series. What else would you expect from a guy that has gone 10-2 with a 2.22 ERA at home this season? CC Sabathia has regained his form for the Yankees this season, going 14-5 with a 3.68 ERA. He has posted an even lower ERA at 3.19 to go along with a 7-3 record on the road this season. This series has alternated 'under' and 'over' results. Look for that trend to continue following a high-scoring Game 4. Take the under (10*). |
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10-11-17 | Devils v. Maple Leafs OVER 6 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Jersey and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. I'll ride the trend and back the 'over' as the Leafs host the upstart Devils on Wednesday night at Air Canada Centre. The Leafs have been on fire out of the gate this season, scoring 19 goals in delivering three consecutive victories. I'm confident they can keep it rolling against a Devils squad that doesn't exactly possess a lock down defense. New Jersey has won its first two games, scoring 10 goals in the process. I had this team pegged as a sleeper in the East (not to win the conference, but to at least over-achieve) and they'll certainly be highly-motivated to take down the undefeated Leafs. I don't believe New Jersey will shy away from a fast-paced affair here. The Devils youth serves them well. Expect another wild one on Wednesday night. Take the over (10*). |
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10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears UNDER 40 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I simply feel that this total has been set too high. The Vikings are obviously missing a number of key pieces on offense. It showed last week as they managed only seven points in a home loss against the Lions. I don't see them picking themselves up off the mat on offense this week as they hit the road for the first time in three games. Meanwhile, the Bears will turn to Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. It's the right move to displace an ineffective Mike Glennon but I'm not sure we'll see them light up the scoreboard with Trubisky at the helm either. Yes, the Bears have a dynamic ground attack led by Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen but I look for the Vikings vaunted defense to hold that duo at bay. Take the under (10*). |
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10-09-17 | Avalanche v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Boston at 1:05 pm et on Monday. The Avs scored four goals in their season debut but returned to form with just one goal in a loss in New Jersey on Saturday. Now playing their third straight road game to open the season I don't expect them to find much offensive success in Boston on Monday afternoon. The Bruins were involved in a wild 4-3 victory over the Preds on Thursday. In the front half of a home-and-home with the lowly Avs they'll simply be looking to score enough to win and move on. Knowing the road team has dominated this series over the years I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair on Monday, and that lends itself to a relatively low-scoring game. Take the under (10*). |
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10-07-17 | Notre Dame v. North Carolina UNDER 63 | Top | 33-10 | Win | 100 | 26 h 33 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Notre Dame and North Carolina at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. After getting off to a hot start offensively this season, North Carolina has cooled off considerably over the last two games and I’m not sure we’ll see the Tar Heels pick themselves up off the mat against an elite opponent in Notre Dame on Saturday afternoon. A more likely ‘get right’ matchup will come next week as UNC hosts Virginia. Notre Dame hasn’t faced any resistance over the last three weeks, scoring 49, 38 and 52 points in reeling off three consecutive victories. While the Tar Heels certainly aren’t known for their defensive ability I do expect them to show up in that regard here. They had very little success against the Georgia Tech option offense last Saturday but should bounce back against an Irish offense that could be in for a letdown. Take the under (10*). |
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10-06-17 | Islanders v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I look for the goaltenders to take center stage as the Isles and Jackets open their respective seasons on Friday night in Columbus. The Islanders are known for their offense, perhaps even moreso with the addition of Jordan Eberle and this being a contract year for John Tavares. Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets lit up the scoreboard with consistency a year ago. That leads to an inflated total in this particular case as I'm not sure the winner gets north of three goals in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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10-06-17 | Memphis v. Connecticut UNDER 72 | 70-31 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Connecticut at 7 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Storrs on Friday night. The thinking here is that UConn is capable of trading points with Memphis, I'm just not sure that's how this will play out on the field. Yes, the Tigers defense has looked terrible so far this season. But the schedule-makers haven't done them any favors. I do see this as a favorable matchup against a good but not great Huskies offense. Meanwhile, UConn checks in 1-3 on the season and gave up a season-high 49 points in last week's loss at SMU. Expect a stronger performance from the Huskies defense this time around. The last meeting between these two teams three years ago totaled only 51 points. This total is inflated in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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10-05-17 | Louisville v. NC State UNDER 66.5 | 25-39 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Louisville and N.C. State at 8 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Raleigh on Thursday night. Both of these teams are capable of stopping the run and that's key. The Cardinals have held the opposition to 3.1 yards per rush so far this season while the Wolfpack have been even better in that regard, allowing just 2.9 ypr. Note that the 'under' has cashed in N.C. State's last two games after the 'over' had cashed in its first three contests. As for Louisville, the 'over' has gone 3-1 in its last four games, but that only helps to keep this total in a lofty range on Thursday night. The Cardinals reputation precedes them with Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson under center. They'll get their points in this one, but not enough to topple the total in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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10-04-17 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-11 | Loss | -100 | 47 h 11 m | Show |
MLB Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Arizona at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Wednesday's N.L. Wild Card showdown between the Rockies and D'Backs. Jon Gray will take the ball for Colorado. He enters this outing having worked at least six innings in four of his last five starts. Over his last three outings, spanning 17 innings, he has given up just four earned runs. Also note that the 'under' went 2-0-1 in his three starts against the D'Backs during the regular season. Zack Greinke will counter for Arizona. He's obviously a playoff veteran and while he doesn't bring great form to the table here after lasting just four innings in each of his last two starts, keep in mind, he had worked at least six innings in his previous five outings. Greinke has worked at least seven innings in each of his last four starts against Colorado, with the 'under' going 3-0-1. Take the under (10*). |
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10-01-17 | Bills v. Falcons OVER 48.5 | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. This will probably be a popular play on Sunday but that doesn't mean it's the wrong one. The Bills finally got their offense in gear against the Broncos vaunted defense, scoring 26 points in a somewhat surprising victory. Here, I look for them to build on that performance against a Falcons defense that has allowed 4.8 yards per rush so far this season. The Buffalo defense has held up well to this point, but that unit will be in for a test here. The Falcons didn't play their best game last week in Detroit but still managed to score 30 points. Through three games, all victories, the Falcons have put up a whopping 87 points this season. The last time they faced the Bills four years ago they scored 34 points in a thrilling overtime victory on the road. We're dealing with a fairly high posted total but I believe it could be even higher. Take the over (10*). |
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09-30-17 | Clemson v. Virginia Tech UNDER 51 | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Clemson and Virginia Tech at 8 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Blacksburg on Saturday night. Both of these teams are off to perfect 4-0 starts and both have enjoyed plenty of success offensively. Here, I’m anticipating a bruising battle, however. Lost in the Tigers perfect start is the fact that they’ve given up a grand total of 37 points, with 21 of those coming in an impressive blowout win on the road against Louisville. This won’t be the Tigers toughest test of the young season as far as I’m concerned and I’m confident they’ll hold up well against a good but not great Hokies offense. Virginia Tech, like Clemson, has done a terrific job defensively, allowing only 41 points through four games, highlighted by two shutouts along the way. This will without question be their toughest challenge of the young season and while playing at home helps, I certainly don’t expect to see the Hokies light up the scoreboard against an excellent Clemson defense. The last matchup between these two teams was a 42-35 shootout in favor of Clemson in last year’s ACC Championship Game. I’m not expecting a similarly high-scoring affair this time around. Take the under (10*). |
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09-29-17 | USC v. Washington State OVER 61.5 | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between USC and Washington State at 10:30 pm et on Friday. USC had no trouble getting past Washington State in last year's meeting, rolling to a 44-17 victory. That was the second consecutive 'under' result in this series, but I expect a different story to unfold as they meet on Friday night in Pullman. We've kept a close eye on the Cougars this season, and so far, it certainly seems as if their defense has taken a step back, as expected. That doesn't bode particularly well as they prepare to face a Trojans offense that can put points on the board in a hurry. The good news for Washington State is, it has a veteran QB in Luke Falk that after a brief hiccup early in the season, has settled in to throw for just shy of 1,400 yards, 14 touchdowns and just one interception. We're dealing with a high total in this one, but it's warranted in my opinion. I'm anticipating a shootout on Friday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-28-17 | Bears v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Green Bay at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'm not anticipating anything resembling a shootout between the Bears and Packers at Lambeau Field on Thursday night. Chicago has seen the 'under' cash in each of its first three games this season. If the Bears are going to stick around in this game, they're going to need to do it on the strength of their defense. The dynamic RB duo of Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard can only carry them so far. I expect to see the Packers stack the box and force Mike Glennon to beat them downfield in this one. The Bears defense should find some success against a makeshift Packers offensive line that struggles to keep Aaron Rodgers upright. Rodgers did pull off a nice comeback win against the Bengals last Sunday, making it look easy late. But don't be fooled, this offense is still a bit of a work-in-progress here in the early stages of the season, largely due to that banged up offensive line. The 'under' has cashed in two of the last three meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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09-27-17 | Mariners v. A's OVER 9.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'over' in Oakland on Wednesday afternoon. Erasmo Ramirez will take the ball for the Mariners. He's been pitching well lately but I'm not sure it's sustainable. Note that he's a miserable 1-6 with an ERA north of six on the road this season, where his starts have averaged a total of over 12 runs per contest. The 'over' has cashed in each of his last three outings against Oakland. Kendall Graveman will counter for Oakland. His last two starts have gone 'under' the total but it's worth noting he's yet to post a streak of three consecutive 'under' results this season. He hasn't lasted six innings in any of his last three starts against Seattle, allowing 12 earned runs in 16 innings of work. Two of his last three outings against the Mariners have totaled at least 13 runs. Take the over (10*). |
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09-26-17 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -103 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in Los Angeles on Tuesday night. The Padres will hand the ball to Dinelson Lamet. He struggled last time out, ending a string of four consecutive sharp outings in which he had worked exactly six innings, allowing two earned runs or less each time out. I expect him to bounce back against the Dodgers, noting he gave up just one earned run in six innings against them earlier this month. Alex Wood will counter for Los Angeles. Of course, he's enjoying a tremendous 2017 campaign. Wood has worked six innings in each of his last two starts, giving up just two earned runs on six hits, striking out 14 and walking only one. He has worked at least six innings in each of his last six outings against the Padres. Expect that streak to continue here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-24-17 | Seahawks v. Titans UNDER 41 | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Seattle and Tennessee at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Nashville on Sunday afternoon. Seattle’s offense has sputtered out of the gates this season and until it finds a ground game, it might be a while before it starts scoring points in bunches again. There’s really nothing intimidating about the Seahawks offense right now. The o-line is weak, the wide receiving corps is pedestrian at best, and TE Jimmy Graham is inconsistent at this stage of his career. The good news is, Seattle’s defense is still above average and should be able to handle this matchup with the Titans. We won with the Titans in last week’s rout of Jacksonville. Things really got out of hand for the Jags in that one, but I’m not sure Tennessee was quite as dominant as the final score indicated. I’m still not sold on this Titans offense, which will lean heavily on its ground attack this Sunday. Defensively, the Titans aren’t an elite team, but they’re serviceable, particularly against a Seahawks offense that is still working things out. We’re dealing with a low total but I believe it could be even lower. Take the under (10*). |
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09-24-17 | Saints v. Panthers OVER 46 | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between New Orleans and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. Neither of these offenses put forth their finest effort last Sunday but I’m confident we’ll see both units bounce back to a certain extend this week. The Saints aren’t going to win many games on the strength of their defense this season. That may be an understatement. While New Orleans has faced a tough schedule to open the season, the fact is, it hasn’t even come close to slowing anyone down. I expect a similar story to unfold here. On the flip side, the Panthers offense couldn’t have looked much worse last week. Cam Newton is still shaking off the rust and the ground game really hasn’t taken off yet. This looks like a tremendous ‘get right’ opportunity for this unit, however, even without TE Greg Olsen. I believe this total is a shade lower than it should be. Take the over (10*). |
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09-23-17 | Duke v. North Carolina UNDER 60 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
CFB ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Duke and North Carolina at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in North Carolina’s rout of Old Dominion last Saturday but I won’t hesitate to go back to the well here as the Tar Heels welcome the Blue Devils to Chapel Hill. Duke is off to a somewhat surprising 3-0 start to the season and while the Blue Devils offense has been terrific, it has been the defense that has impressed me the most. Through three games, Duke has allowed a grand total of only 44 points. Yes, there was a gimme against North Carolina Central in the mix but over the last two weeks, the Blue Devils have held both Northwestern and Baylor in check. Meanwhile, North Carolina has faced a pretty tough early season slate, hosting Cal and Louisville before defeating Old Dominion on the road last week. The Tar Heels know they’ll need to be better defensively in order to take down the Blue Devils and I believe they will be. Offensively, they’ve been better than expected but face a tough challenge here. Most are anticipating a shootout but I believe the total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers OVER 39 | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in San Francisco on Thursday night. Last year, the 49ers didn't post their third 'under' result of the season until November 13th. Here, they have a chance to do it before we even wrap up the third week of September. I don't see it happening, however. The Rams offense has been somewhat inconsistent but has at least shown it can move the football with Jared Goff under center. I'm not sure the 49ers defense is quite as good as advertised and might come in a little high on its horse following a strong showing in Seattle. Keep in mind, we did win with the 49ers plus the points last week. We saw some flashes of brilliance from the Niners offense in the preseason but that hasn't carried over into the regular season as they've yet to score a touchdown. That should change here. I expect to see both teams take some chances in this key early season division game, as they need to figure out what they have offensively and gain some semblance of an identity. The total has been slowly shifting downward and I believe it's reached the point where it's too low. Take the over (10*). |
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09-20-17 | Diamondbacks v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | 13-7 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and San Diego at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' as we see a matchup of two starting pitchers in excellent form do battle at Petco Park on Wednesday night. Robbie Ray has been lights out for the D'Backs, not just of late, but this season in general. Over his last three starts he has gone 3-0 with a 1.31 ERA and 0.73 WHIP. Note that he has posted a sparkling 1.33 ERA and 0.93 WHIP on the road this season. Meanwhile, Padres starter Dinelson Lamet is winless over his last three outings, but has posted a solid 2.00 ERA. Here at home, Lamet has recorded a 3.59 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. His home starts are averaging just seven total runs per contest. Take the under (10*). |
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09-19-17 | Red Sox v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Camden Yards on Tuesday night. Drew Pomeranz will take the ball for Boston. He has worked at least six innings in three of his last four starts and has allowed just three earned runs over his last two outings, spanning 12 innings of work. Pomeranz checks in 7-3 with a solid 3.45 ERA on the road this season. Kevin Gausman will counter for Baltimore. Like Pomeranz, Gausman has been pitching well. He has also worked at least six innings in three of his last four starts. One of those outings came against the Red Sox in Boston as Gausman tossed 7 2/3 shutout innings. The Red Sox have certainly trended to the 'under' this season, even though they're known for their offensive prowess. Take the under (10*). |
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09-17-17 | Cowboys v. Broncos UNDER 42 | 17-42 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Dallas and Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is certainly the marquee matchup on the Sunday afternoon NFL board and while everyone may be hoping for an entertaining, high-scoring affair, I’m expecting a defensive slugfest to develop. The Cowboys absolutely manhandled the Giants in a 19-3 victory last Sunday night. Eli Manning did complete 29 passes but for only 220 yards. Paul Perkins was New York’s leading rusher with a whopping 16 yards. In other words, the Cowboys defense appeared to be in midseason form. They draw another favorable matchup here as the Broncos have a terrific WR tandem in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders but not much else. QB Trevor Siemian certainly doesn’t carry much of an intimidation factor. The Broncos defense sagged in the fourth quarter, but still held the Chargers offense in check for most of Monday’s game. Philip Rivers threw for only 192 yards and Melvin Gordon was limited to three yards per carry. Denver will face a tougher challenge trying to contain Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott on Sunday afternoon, but this is a unit that has stepped up in big games time and time again in recent years. Dak and Zeke will ultimately get theirs, but I don’t expect either offense to do enough to push this one ‘over’ the total. Take the under (10*). |
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09-17-17 | Bears v. Bucs OVER 43 | Top | 7-29 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 13 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Chicago and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ as the Buccaneers finally open their season at home against the Bears on Sunday afternoon. The Bears opened with a narrow 23-17 loss to the Falcons last week. There were certainly some positives to take away from that game, however. Yes, the defense held up well, limiting a very good Falcons offense to only two touchdowns, but I came away more impressed by the offense. Maybe ‘impressed’ is a bit of a stretch, but I liked the fact that they made an effort to push the ball downfield, with Mike Glennon attempting 40 passes, not to mention the emergence of RB Tarik Cohen as a versatile runner and pass catcher out of the backfield. RB Jordan Howard got plenty of hype leading into the season, but Cohen was certainly the more electric back last Sunday. It may not last, but for now, I believe the Bears have big play ability with their RB tandem. The Bucs offense has a chance to be really special this season. Adding DeSean Jackson was big, as was drafting TE O.J. Howard. Mike Evans is in line for a career year with QB Jameis Winston continuing his progression. While the Bears pose a tough challenge defensively, I believe the Bucs will be up for it. This total is a shade low as far as I’m concerned. Take the over (10*). |
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09-16-17 | Ole Miss v. California OVER 71.5 | Top | 16-27 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 46 m | Show |
CFB ESPN O/U Bailout. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Ole Miss and Cal at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Berkeley on Saturday night. This one is being pegged a shootout, and rightfully so. Ole Miss probably isn’t quite as good as it has looked through two games but there’s no denying that the Rebels possess an offense that is capable of putting points on the board in a hurry. Against a Cal squad that won’t shy away from a track meet, I expect Ole Miss to continue to thrive offensively. The Bears have scored 68 points in winning back-to-back games to open the season, including a quality road win against North Carolina two weeks ago. It’s the Bears running game that really exploded against Weber State last week, and I’m confident they’ll be able to move the chains on the ground against a middle of the road Rebels defense as well. Despite facing two lower-tier opponents in South Alabama and Tennesee-Martin to start the season, the Rebels have still allowed 50 points, albeit in two winning efforts. They know that they’ll need to end most drives with seven points on the board if they want to stick around in this game. Likewise for Cal. In a matchup of two teams that need to make the most of their non-conference schedules, I’m anticipating an entertaining, high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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09-16-17 | Oregon State v. Washington State UNDER 65.5 | 23-52 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Oregon State and Washington State at 5:30 pm et on Saturday. It usually takes two to topple a total this high, and I’m not sure we see both offenses turn in stellar performances on Saturday afternoon in Pullman. Oregon State has already allowed 138 points through three games this season so its focus will undoubtedly be on responding on that side of the football this week. Offensively, the Beavers remain a work in progress and I wouldn’t count on much progress against a solid Cougars defense this Saturday. Washington State gave up 44 points in last week’s thrilling triple-overtime win over Boise State. Keep in mind, the Cougars actually held Boise State to just 17 points through three quarters in that game. The Broncos were buoyed by a fumble return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. While Washington State is missing some defensive talent from last year’s squad, it still has the pieces in place to perform well this season, and this is a bit of a statement game to move to 3-0. Take the under (10*). |
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09-16-17 | North Carolina v. Old Dominion UNDER 55 | 53-23 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between North Carolina and Old Dominion at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We cashed tickets in games involving both of these teams last week, successfully fading the Tar Heels against Louisville while backing the Monarchs in their ugly win over UMass. Here, I won’t hesitate to switch gears and set sights on the total, which I feel has been set a shade too high. North Carolina has lost a lot of talent from last year’s offense. However, the Tar Heels haven’t seemed to miss a beat, scoring 65 points, albeit in back-to-back losses to Cal and Louisville – both at home. Now as UNC hits the road for the first time, I’m not sure we’ll see them be quite as productive offensively against an Old Dominion defense that is better than advertised. The Monarchs have become known for their offensive prowess in recent years, however, they’ve also dealt with some turnover on that side of the football, and so far this season it has been their defense that has shone. They’ll certainly take this matchup as a challenge, and a good measuring stick here only three games into the season. I’m anticipating a hard-fought affair that sneaks ‘under’ the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-17 | UMass v. Temple OVER 52 | Top | 21-29 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 56 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between UMass and Temple at 7 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' at the Linc on Friday night. We cashed a ticket fading UMass last week, and also cashed with the 'over' in the Minutemen's season opener against Hawaii. In other words, I think we have a pretty good handle on where this team is at right now. I certainly feel that UMass is a better offensive team than it showed in last week's ugly 17-7 home loss to Old Dominion. Note that the Minutemen had scored 63 points in their first two games. With TE Adam Breneman and WR Andy Isabella, not to mention RB Marquis Young, who scored four touchdowns in the first two games, UMass has a solid nucleus on offense. It's just a matter of them finishing drives. I believe they'll be able to do that against a Temple defense that lost a lot of talent from last year's team. The Owls have been held to 16 points in each of their first two games going 1-1. They ran into a tough FCS opponent in Villanova last week but will take a step down in class against the Minutemen. Keep in mind, this is a UMass team that gave up 38 points against both Hawaii and Coastal Carolina. Last week's opponent, ODU was missing its top offensive player in RB Ray Lawry. Take the over (10*). |
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09-14-17 | Texans v. Bengals UNDER 38 | 13-9 | Win | 100 | 48 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Cincinnati at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in last week's Thursday nighter but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' this Thursday as two reeling squads in the Texans and Bengals do battle in Cincinnati. Both of these teams were flat out embarrassed in their respective home openers last week. Things won't get any easier for the Texans as they turn to rookie QB DeShaun Watson on Thursday night. Don't count on them opening the playbook wide for Watson in his first career NFL start, on a short week no less. Watson threw and interception and also lost a fumble against the Jaguars last Sunday. After giving the offense a spark on his first drive after taking over under center, he wasn't able to get much done the rest of the way. The Bengals were the only team to get shut out in their season opener. Without their full compliment on defense this week they could be in trouble against a lot of teams, but I don't believe that will be the case against the Texans. Offensively, the Bengals have nowhere to go but up. But how much progress will they make playing on a short week? That remains to be seen. This is a low total for an NFL regular season game - there's no question about that. However, I do believe it's warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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09-11-17 | Chargers v. Broncos UNDER 43 | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Denver at 10:20 pm et on Monday. I certainly expect the defenses to be slightly ahead of the offenses as the Chargers and Broncos renew their rivalry in Denver on Monday night. The Chargers have reason to be excited with an emerging defense led by pass rushers Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. While this is a team that is still known for its offense with QB Philip Rivers at the helm, the fact is, it's the defense that will tell the story in Los Angeles this season. Meanwhile, the Broncos are what they are. Despite the presence of the dynamic WR duo of Thomas and Sanders, this is an offense that has its issues. QB Trevor Siemian isn't likely to light anyone up, certainly not a Chargers defense that is familiar with him after last year. Defensively is where the Broncos should continue to shine. Again, familiarity helps Denver's cause against a division rival to open the new season. That familiarity lends itself to a relatively low-scoring game here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-10-17 | Steelers v. Browns OVER 46.5 | 21-18 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Pittsburgh and Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in the ‘Dawg Pound’ on Sunday afternoon. For the first time in a long time, there’s some excitement surrounding the Browns in Cleveland. I do believe we’ll see the Browns offense take major stides forward with rookie QB DeShone Kizer this season. That’s not to say that we’ll see them run wild against a capable Steelers defense, but don’t count on Pittsburgh manhandling the Browns the way it has in years past. On the flip side, the Browns defense suffered a major blow losing first overall pick Myles Garrett to injury. That takes away a lot of the positive momentum this unit had been building through August. Cleveland will certainly have its hands full with an absolutely loaded Steelers offense that welcomes back WR Martavis Bryant to an already explosive group. I would have liked to have gotten this total a little lower, but it’s still playable at the current number. Take the over (10*). |
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09-09-17 | Boise State v. Washington State UNDER 58 | Top | 44-47 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 24 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and Washington State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. Boise State has reeled off three consecutive 'under' results going back to last season while the Cougars have posted an 0-2-1 o/u mark over their last three contests dating back to 2016. Washington State is still thought of as an offensive powerhouse rather than a defensive stalwart but the fact is, the Cougars can bring it on the defensive side of the football, particularly here at home. They opened the 2017 campaign with a shutout performance against Montana State. They'll obviously be facing a much tougher challenge here but after barely breaking a sweat last week, I believe they'll be up to the task. Boise State had its way with Troy in its season opener, prevailing by a 24-13 score. Note that the Broncos managed only 12 points in a blowout loss in their Bowl game against Baylor last year. We've seen the Broncos have a tough time keeping it rolling offensively when stepping up in class in recent years and I believe that will prove to be the case here as well. Boise State may not be an elite defensive squad but it is serviceable to be sure. Note that it hasn't allowed more than 31 points in a game since November 2015. Take the under (10*). |
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09-09-17 | Utah v. BYU UNDER 46.5 | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 50 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and BYU at 10:15 pm et on Saturday. Only one of the last four meetings in this series has totaled north of 45 points and that came in a rare Bowl matchup two years ago. These early September showdowns have been more or less owned by the defenses, and I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair here. Utah thrived offensively in Pac-12 play last season and its season culminated with a 26-24 Bowl win over Indiana. But the Utes are ushering in some new faces on offense, with sophomore Tyler Huntley taking over under center after throwing just seven passes last season. They'll be up against a formidable BYU defense that saw its play overshadowed by a no-show from the offense against LSU last week (we won with the 'under' in that game). I'm not sure we'll see the Cougars offense accomplish much more in this one. QB Tanner Mangum is certainly no Taysom Hill, as we've seen through two games in which BYU has scored a grand total of 20 points. Mangum is capable of playing better, as we saw during the 2015-16 season, but doesn't have a wealth of talent around him. I expect the Utes defense to hold its own against the Cougars here. Familiarity lends itself to a low-scoring game. Take the under (10*). |
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09-09-17 | Pittsburgh v. Penn State OVER 64 | 14-33 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Pittsburgh and Penn State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Penn State looked the part of a national title contender last week, albeit against a weak opponent in Akron. The Nittany Lions scored at will, jumping ahead 35-0 before halftime and the defense took care of the rest. They were able to take their foot off the gas in the second half of that game, but still moved the football with ease. I don’t expect them to face much resistance from the Pitt defense this week, but I also don’t believe this will be a cakewalk. Pitt didn’t put its best foot forward last week, but still managed to come away with an overtime win over a good FCS squad in Youngstown State. The Panthers never really got rolling offensively in that game, but now that QB Max Browne has a game under his belt running the offense, I expect him to be better. While there has been plenty of turnover from last year’s veteran squad, Browne still has plenty of talent to work with at wide receiver. Pitt is accustomed to getting involved in shootouts after a wild 2016 campaign and while the Panthers won’t be able to stay within arm’s length of the Nittany Lions here, I do believe they can make things somewhat interesting, which lends itself to a play on the ‘over’. Take the over (10*). |
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