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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-26-18 | Brewers v. Giants UNDER 8 | 7-5 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and San Francisco at 10:15 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' at AT&T Park on Thursday night. Veteran Wade Miley will get the nod for the Brewers. He's certainly familiar with pitching in this park from his days with the division rival D'Backs. Miley held his own last time out, tossing six innings of four-hit, one-run ball, needing only 83 pitches to get through. In two road starts this season he has allowed only three earned runs in 11 innings of work. Rookie Dereck Rodriguez will counter for the Giants. We won with the 'under' in his last start and I won't hesitate to go back to the well here. Rodriguez is 3-0 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.01 WHIP at home this season. The 'under' is a perfect 4-0 in his last four outings in which he has given up only four earned runs in 26 1/3 innings pitched. Take the under (10*). |
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07-26-18 | Mets v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | Top | 12-6 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
MLB N.L. Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' at PNC Park on Thursday evening. Steven Matz will take the ball for the Mets. He stumbled last time out against the Yankees, allowing nine hits and five earned runs in five innings. However, prior to that he had worked at least into the sixth inning in eight consecutive starts, giving up three earned runs or less in seven of those outings. Matz' road starts are averaging just a shade over eight total runs. Nick Kingham will counter for Pittsburgh. He's 3-1 with a 2.90 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in five home starts this season. He has worked at least six innings in four of his last five starts and has given up just six earned runs in his last 18 2/3 innings of work. The 'under' is 4-2 in his last six outings. Take the under (10*). |
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07-25-18 | Pirates v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Cleveland at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Progressive Field on Wednesday afternoon. Jameson Taillon will take the ball for the Pirates. He has at least worked into the sixth inning in three consecutive starts, allowing just five earned runs in 18 innings of work. Three starts ago he turned in one of his most impressive outings of the season as he worked 6 2/3 innings and needed only 77 pitches to do so. Note that he hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in a start since way back on May 22nd. Trevor Bauer will counter for the Indians. He struggled last time out, giving up four earned runs in just four innings of work. Prior to that, Bauer had worked at least into the seventh inning in eight consecutive starts. Over that stretch, he gave up more than two earned runs only once. Bauer has posted a 2.23 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 10 home starts this season. Take the under (10*). |
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07-24-18 | Pirates v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | 9-4 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Progressive Field on Tuesday night. Joe Musgrove will take the ball for the Pirates. He has worked at least seven innings in two of his last three starts. I also like the fact that he has thrown over 100 pitches just once in his last seven outings. In two road starts this season he has recorded a 1.38 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Shane Bieber will counter for the Indians. He has worked at least six innings in five straight starts. Last time out he held the Yankees to only three earned runs in seven innings. He has yet to throw 100 pitches in a start this season. In four home starts he has posted a 2.81 ERA. Take the under (10*). |
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07-24-18 | Twins v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 22 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Rogers Centre on Tuesday night. Jose Berrios will take the ball for the Twins. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in 13 of his last 14 starts. He did give up six earned runs last time out. The last time he allowed six earned runs in a start was June 29th against the Cubs in Chicago. He followed that up by allowing just three earned runs in seven innings in a 3-2 loss to the Brewers. Ryan Borucki will counter for the Blue Jays. He worked at least six innings in his first three starts before stumbling against the Red Sox in Boston last time out. In two previous starts here in Toronto, Borucki allowed just three earned runs in 14 innings. The 'under' has gone 3-1 in his four previous outings. Take the under (10*). |
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07-23-18 | Dodgers v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' at Citizens Bank Park on Monday night. Ross Stripling will get the nod for the Dodgers. He has been pitching well before getting roughed up in a 1 2/3-inning outing at the All-Star Game. I simply feel this is a tough matchup for him in a hitter's park following the extended All-Star break. The Phillies last three games have totaled 16, 16 and 12 runs. Zach Eflin will take the ball for the Phillies. He has worked beyond the fifth inning just twice in his last five starts. Eflin has faced the Dodgers three times over the course of his career, allowing 14 earned runs in 14 innings of work. The 'over' cashed in all three of those starts. Take the over (10*). |
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07-22-18 | White Sox v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | 2-8 | Loss | -117 | 19 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' at Safeco Field on Sunday afternoon. Reynaldo Lopez will take the ball for the White Sox. He has worked at least 6 1/3 innings in three of his last four trips to the hill. Last time out he did give up five earned runs, but battled for seven innings and it's worth noting that game totaled only five runs. Lopez will be making his first career start against the Mariners. Marco Gonzalez will counter for Seattle. He has worked at least six innings in five consecutive starts. He tossed seven shutout innings of two-hit ball in his most recent start. The 'under' has cashed in each of his last five starts. Gonzalez has faced the White Sox just once in his career - that start coming back in April - and he didn't give up an earned run in six innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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07-22-18 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Arizona at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' at Chase Field on Sunday afternoon. Antonio Senzatela will take the ball for the Rockies. He has worked at least six innings in both starts this season. Senzatela did allow six earned runs last time out but he was still fairly efficient in that outing, needing 101 pitches to get through six frames. The D'Backs have had a couple of big offensively explosions lately, but haven't been all that consistent at the dish. Zack Greinke will counter for Arizona. He is coming off a fantastic outing, tossing 7 2/3 shutout innings on the road against the Braves. Greinke has worked at least into the seventh innings in three of his last four starts overall. Note that the 'under' has cashed in each of his last four outings. Take the under (10*). |
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07-21-18 | Montreal v. Calgary OVER 48.5 | 8-25 | Loss | -119 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Calgary at 9 pm et on Saturday. All of the trends point to the 'under' in this one but I'm going to go the other way and back the 'over'. The Als have been trending up offensively, scoring 23 and 18 points in their last two games. Meanwhile, the Stampeders have been playing outstanding football defensively, but I'm not sure how long they can keep it up. In fact, I'm anticipating a bit of a letdown here. Offensively, the Stamps continue to roll along and while QB Bo Levi Mitchell's health is a bit of a question mark here, I'm not sure it matters who is under center, they'll produce against the Als porous defense. Take the over (10*). |
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07-21-18 | Indians v. Rangers UNDER 10 | 16-3 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in Arlington on Saturday night. Carlos Carrasco will take the ball for the Indians. He bounced back from a rough stretch in his most recent start, allowing just one earned run over five innings against the Reds. He followed that up with a perfect one-inning relief appearance prior to the All-Star break. Note that Carrasco has actually pitched better on the road than at home, posting a 3.33 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 54 innings of work. Bartolo Colon will counter for Texas. He continues to chug along, having worked at least six innings in four of his last five starts. Colon allowed three earned runs or less in all five of those outings. I like the fact that he hasn't thrown more than 100 pitches in a start since back on May 26th. Take the under (10*). |
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07-21-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' at Miller Park on Saturday night. The Dodgers will hand the ball to their ace Clayton Kershaw. He has rounded back into form, pitching at least six innings in each of his last three starts, giving up only five earned runs in 18 2/3 innings of work. Note that he has been at his best on the road this season, where he has posted a 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Chase Anderson will counter for Milwaukee. He's been one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season as far as I'm concerned. Anderson has worked at least into the sixth inning in three of his last four starts. In those four starts he has given up just four earned runs in 22 1/3 innings pitched. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has gone 4-0-1 in his last five outings. Take the under (10*). |
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07-20-18 | Giants v. A's UNDER 9 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Oakland at 9:35 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Oakland on Friday night. The Giants will hand the ball to rookie Dereck Rodriguez. After struggling early in the campaign, he has responded by working at least into the sixth inning in four of his last five starts, giving up two earned runs or less in four of those outings as well. We won with the 'under' in his most recent start - a 3-2 victory over the Cardinals on July 6th. Veteran Edwin Jackson will counter for Oakland. He has made four starts for the A's this season, working at least into the sixth inning in all four outings. He has yet to give up more than two earned runs in a start this season. The 'under' has gone 2-0-2 in his four starts. Take the under (10*). |
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07-20-18 | Twins v. Royals UNDER 9 | 5-6 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Kansas City on Friday night. Kyle Gibson continues to be one of the most underrated and undervalued starters in baseball this season. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in 12 of his last 13 starts overall. Gibson has been a force on the road, posting a 2.84 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. On the flip side, Royals starter Danny Duffy has really struggled at home with an ERA north of six. However, Duffy gave up just one earned run over six innings in a 2-1 victory over these same Twins back on May 29th. He has given up just two earned runs in 18 innings of work in his last three outings against Minnesota. Take the under (10*). |
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07-20-18 | BC v. Ottawa OVER 53 | Top | 25-29 | Win | 100 | 47 h 13 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between B.C. and Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Friday. With both teams coming off relatively low-scoring affairs last week I absolutely love the way the 'over' sets up on Friday night. B.C. welcomed back QB Travis Lulay and eked out a 20-17 home victory over Winnipeg. That put an end to a string of back-to-back 'over' results for the Lions. Lulay certainly didn't hold anything back in his return, airing out 41 passes and throwing for 326 yards, one touchdown and one interception. A key here is the fact that the Lions will be without one of the league's best defenders in LB Solomon Elimimian. Ottawa put forth a dreadful offensive performance last week, scoring just three points in a rout at the hands of the Stampeders. Keep in mind, just two games back, the Redblacks scored 28 points against Montreal. Calgary has really been the only opponent to keep the Ottawa offense in check this season. Note that the 'over' has gone 2-0-1 in the last three meetings in this series with each of those games reaching at least 55 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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07-14-18 | England v. Belgium UNDER 3 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between England and Belgium at 10 am et on Saturday. I'm actually fairly surprised we're looking at such a high total here. We've got two dejected squads that had their sights on something much bigger than the consolation prize. Sure, both are capable of opening things up and putting a goal or two on the board, but will we see it play out that way in Russia on Saturday? I'm not so easily convinced. At times in the latter stages of this tournament, I felt it was a real struggle for the English to generate much offensively. I also feel that Belgium's best football is behind it at this point. The French were able to really stymie them in the semi-final. England may not pose the same challenge, however I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair nonetheless. Take the under (10*). |
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07-13-18 | Angels v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Dodger Stadium on Friday night. Felix Pena will take the ball for the Angels. He seems to be getting better with each passing start and has now worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his last two starts, giving up just two earned runs in 10 2/3 innings, needing only 76 pitches to get through each of those outings. Walker Buehler will make his return to the Dodgers rotation after a rocky relief appearance. Before he got injured, he had worked seven innings in two of his last three starts. Buehler has posted a 2.87 ERA and 0.83 WHIP at home this season. His arm should be fresh as he has rarely had to be stretched out this season, topping out at 97 pitches. Take the under (10*). |
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07-12-18 | Rays v. Twins UNDER 8 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two clubs yesterday afternoon at Target Field but I expect to see a different story unfold on Thursday night. Blake Snell has been considered one of the biggest All-Star snubs this season and I certainly anticipate him pitching with plenty of fire in this one. Snell has been nothing short of brilliant this season, posting a 2.09 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. In 28 2/3 innings of work over his last four starts he has allowed just two earned runs on 14 hits. Kyle Gibson has enjoyed a solid campaign by his own standards for the Twins. Gibson checks in with a 3.57 ERA and 1.27 WHIP and enters this start having worked at least six innings in five of his last six trips to the hill. Last time out he gave up just three earned runs over seven innings against the Orioles. We're not being given a lofty total to work with by any means, but I still see considerable value in the 'under' at the current number. Take the under (10*). |
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07-11-18 | Reds v. Indians UNDER 9 | 4-19 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Progressive Field on Wednesday. Tyler Mahle remains an undervalued starter, having worked at least into the sixth inning in four of his last five starts. Last time out he gave up just one earned run over 6 2/3 innings against the Cubs in Chicago. Note that his 10 road starts this season have averaged just north of seven total runs. Carlos Carrasco will counter for Cleveland. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in two of his last three starts, but has admittedly not been at the top of his game since around late May. With that being said, I do look for him to step up after the Reds took the first two games in this series. Carrasco has gone at leats six innings in all four career starts against the Reds. Take the under (10*). |
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07-10-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 11 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
MLB N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Coors Field on Tuesday night. The D'Backs will send Patrick Corbin to the mound. He checks in having been in fine form over his last three starts, posting a 0.95 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over that stretch. In seven road starts he has recorded a 2.32 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with those games averaging just north of seven total runs. Note that Corbin has worked at least into the sixth inning in 10 consecutive outings. Likewise, Rockies starter Tyler Anderson has been working deep into ball games, going at least into the sixth inning in six straight starts. He hasn't allowed a single earned run over his last two outings, giving up only six hits in 16 innings. Note that the 'under' has cashed in each of his last three starts. Take the under (10*). |
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07-09-18 | Reds v. Indians UNDER 9 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at Progressive Field on Monday night. Anthony DeScaflani will take the ball for the Reds. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in four straight starts. While he did allow nine earned runs over his last two outings, he needed only 88 and 82 pitches to get through those starts. In his lone road start this season he gave up just two earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in Pittsburgh. Mike Clevinger will make his first start since July 1st for the Indians. He has worked at least six innings in six of his last seven starts. I like the fact that he has thrown more than 100 pitches just twice in his last four outings and has had the extended layoff since his last start. Take the under (10*). |
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07-06-18 | Cardinals v. Giants UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and San Francisco at 10:15 pm et on Friday. The Cardinals exploded offensively for the second straight game last night, plating 11 runs in a rout of the Giants. I look for things to settle down on Friday as two young starting pitchers take the mound. John Gant will take the ball for the Cards. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in three consecutive starts. Even in his last start, while he did allow four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings he needed just 79 pitches to get through that outing. Gant will be facing a Giants club that isn't scoring right now, having plated just five runs over their last four games - perhaps most alarming is the fact that three of those were played at hitter-friendly Coors Field in Denver. Dereck Rodriguez will counter for San Francisco. After a tough start to the campaign, he has settled in, guiding the Giants to wins in each of his last four starts. Rodriguez has worked at least into the seventh inning in three of his last four outings, allowing just six earned runs in 25 innings over that stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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07-06-18 | Ottawa v. Montreal OVER 48.5 | 28-18 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Ottawa and Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the Alouettes last weekend as they pulled out a double-digit underdog victory over Saskatchewan. I won’t hesitate to switch gears and look at the total this week as they return home to host the Redblacks. The Montreal offense has stumbled out of the gate this season. That’s probably an understatement. With that being said, I don’t believe the Als defense is as good as it showed last week, and think the offense will do a good job picking up the slack against a middle of the road Ottawa defense on Friday. The Redblacks will be playing just their third game of the season on Friday and it’s been a mixed bag so far – particularly on offense. This is certainly a favorable bounce-back spot following a loss in Calgary last week and I’m confident we’ll see the Ottawa offense perform well. QB Trevor Harris wasn’t able to follow up on a strong season debut but there’s a big difference between facing the Stampeders and Alouettes. I believe the oddsmakers have this total set a shade too low. Take the over (10*). |
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07-05-18 | Hamilton v. Saskatchewan UNDER 51 | 13-18 | Win | 100 | 24 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Hamilton and Saskatchewan at 9 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams check in with identical 1-2 o/u records and I look for that early season trend to continue on Thursday night in Regina. Hamilton is coming off back-to-back 30+ point performances but I look for that streak to end here. Jeremiah Masoli is certainly playing well right now under center, and doing an excellent job of keeping Johnny Manziel on the sidelines. With that being said, I'm not sure this is an elite Ti-Cats offense and they'll be facing a Riders defense that knows it has to step up its game with the offense hindered without QB Zach Collaros. The Saskatchewan defense didn't give up much but the Riders still fell by a 23-17 score at home against the Alouettes last week. I'm not sure we're going to see much improvement from the Riders offense here with Brandon Bridge getting another start at QB. Take the under (10*). |
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07-04-18 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 8-4 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Arizona at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Neither of these teams are scoring with much consistency right now. With that in mind, I'll call for a relatively low-scoring affair on Wednesday night. Miles Mikolas remains one of the most undervalued starters in baseball. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in seven of his last eight starts. He has also given up an earned run or less in four of his last six outings. The 'under' is 5-1 over that stretch. Patrick Corbin will counter for Arizona. Like Mikolas, he has been lasting deep into games having worked at least into the sixth frame in nine straight starts. The 'under' has cashed in each of his last three starts as he has given up just one earned run in his last 13 innings of work, spanning his last two outings. Take the under (10*). |
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07-04-18 | Mets v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Corey Oswalt will take the ball for the Mets, making his second big league start. He struggled in his first, but I do look for him to settle down against an inconsistent Blue Jays offense on Wednesday. Note that Oswalt did hold the Cardinals to just two earned runs on two hits over 4 2/3 innings in a relief appearance earlier this season, so he's capable of stepping up. Blue Jays starter Marcus Stroman has rounded back into form since returning from injury, allowing only one earned run over 12 frames in his last two starts. Not surprisingly, the 'under' cashed in both of those games. I like the fact that he hasn't been overworked, needing only 81 and 90 pitches to get through those two outings. Take the under (10*). |
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07-04-18 | Red Sox v. Nationals UNDER 9 | 3-0 | Win | 105 | 3 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Washington at 11:05 am et on Wednesday. I'll keep my analysis short with first pitch fast approaching on the Fourth of July. Eduardo Rodriguez has at least worked into the sixth inning in seven of his last eight starts overall. The 'under' is 7-3 in his last 10 starts. Meanwhile, Nats rookie Erick Fedde has at least worked into the sixth frame in five of his last seven outings. The 'under' is 4-1 in his last five trips to the hill. After a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night, look for a lower-scoring contest on Wednesday. Take the under (10*). |
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06-30-18 | Portugal v. Uruguay UNDER 2 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -123 | 41 h 57 m | Show |
World Cup Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Uruguay and Portugal at 2 pm et on Saturday. There is so much star power in this matchup it’s not surprising that we’re dealing with a juiced-out total shaded to the ‘over’. We’ll go the other way and call for a ‘push’ at worst as I don’t see this one settling at anything other than 0-0, 1-0 or 1-1 at the end of 90 minutes. We saw Iran take away a number of Cristiano Ronaldo’s opportunities in the final group stage match and I’m confident we’ll see Uruguay do the same on Saturday. Save for a penalty kick awarded, Ronaldo was frustrated for much of that night against the Iranians. On the flip side, Portugal is capable of keeping the outstanding duo of Suarez and Cavani under wraps, unlike Uruguay’s previous opponents, perhaps save for Egypt, which held up well until added time in their World Cup opener. While the potential is there for both of these squads to bust out offensively, I just don’t see it happening with so much on the line, and so little separating the two teams. Take the under (10*). |
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06-29-18 | BC v. Edmonton UNDER 55.5 | Top | 22-41 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 8 m | Show |
CFL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between B.C. and Edmonton at 10 pm et on Friday. Edmonton has been involved in a couple of high-scoring affairs to open the season, splitting those two games. I look for the Eskimos defense to step up on Friday night, however, as they welcome the Lions to Commonwealth Stadium. There’s no question the Eskimos defense is better than it has shown in the early going this season. This looks like a fine ‘get right’ game at home against a Lions offense that the jury is still out on, having only played one game – a 22-10 victory over a bad Alouettes squad back in Week 1. On the flip side, I’m confident the Lions defense can hold its own against an Edmonton offense that has yet to find its groove. The Eskimos scored points in bunches against Winnipeg in a wild season-opener but stumbled last week. It’s hard to say which offense we see on Friday night, but I do feel we’re dealing with an inflated total based on the Eskimos high-scoring contests so far. Take the under (10*). |
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06-29-18 | Nationals v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 46 m | Show |
MLB N.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. When these two teams met last week they combined to score 36 runs in three games. I expect a different story to unfold on Friday night, however, as two young starting pitchers go head-to-head. Erick Fedde will take the ball for the Nationals. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in five of his last six trips to the hill. I like the fact that Fedde has thrown fewer than 100 pitches in six of his first seven big league starts. His ground ball to fly ball ratio has been outstanding over his last few outings. The 'under' has cashed in each of Fedde's last four starts. Nick Pivetta will counter for Philadelphia. He hasn't been working deep into ball games lately but should take some positives from his most recent start against the same Nats' he'll face on Friday night. In that outing he gave up just two earned runs in five innings and needed only 87 pitches to get through that start. Pivetta has been solid at home this season, posting a 3.04 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. His home starts are totaling just shy of 7.5 runs per contest. Take the under (10*). |
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06-28-18 | A's v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 | 4-2 | Win | 102 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. Just feel that this total is too high considering the current form of both starting pitchers. Sean Manaea will take the ball for the A's. He's come out of a rough patch to work at least into the sixth inning in each of his last four starts, allowing three earned runs or less in all four outings. Note that he owns a solid 3.17 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the road this season. Michael Fulmer has also bounced back for the Tigers in recent weeks, working at least into the sixth inning in four consecutive starts. He has given up just five earned runs in 19 2/3 innings of work over his last three trips to the hill. The 'under' cashed in all three of those contests. Take the under (10*). |
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06-27-18 | Reds v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Atlanta at 12:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Sun Trust Park on Wednesday afternoon. The Reds will hand the ball to Luis Castillo. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in two of his last three and eight of his last 16 starts overall. So he's not exactly the picture of consistency, but has settled in lately, allowing just 28 hits over his last 32 1/3 innings, and I like the fact that he has thrown fewer than 100 pitches in six of his last seven starts overall. Sean Newcomb will counter for Atlanta. We missed the mark with the 'under' in his most recent start but that was no fault of Newcomb's. In that outing, he lasted seven innings, giving up one earned run on five hits against the Orioles. Note that he has worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his last five starts. Over that stretch, Newcomb has allowed more than two earned runs only once. He threw 108 pitches in his last outing - the first time in seven starts he had gone over the 100 pitch mark. The last two times he has thrown over 100 pitches he has given up a combined five hits and one earned run in 12 innings. Take the under (10*). |
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06-26-18 | Cubs v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 9-4 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Chavez Ravine on Tuesday night. Jon Lester will take the ball for the Cubs. he tossed seven shutout innings against these same Dodgers at Wrigley Field just last week. While he did need to throw 119 pitches to get through that outing, the good news is that he has had five full days off since. Lester has worked at least six innings in seven of his last nine starts against Los Angeles. Three of his last four starts against them have totaled five runs or less. Ross Stripling will counter for the Dodgers. He continues to be one of the most undervalued starting pitchers in baseball. Stripling has worked at least six innings in three straight starts. Last week against the Cubs he needed only 84 pitches to go six innings, allowing three earned runs in a 4-0 loss (he was matched up against Lester in that one as well). Stripling owns an impressive 1.82 ERA and 0.96 WHIP at Dodger Stadium this season. Take the under (10*). |
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06-26-18 | Royals v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Royals 2-0 victory over the Angels yesterday afternoon and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they travel to face the Brewers on Tuesday night. Jakob Junis will take the ball for the Royals. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in five consecutive starts. He was roughed up in two of those, but has still held five of his last seven opponents to three earned runs or less. Junis' road starts are averaging a total of just under 7.2 runs this season. Freddy Peralta will counter for Milwaukee. He has made three starts since returning to the Brewers rotation, with all three of those coming on the road. He was outstanding in two of those, including his most recent outing in which he allowed only two hits over six shutout innings, striking out seven and not walking a single batter. Remember, in Peralta's first start of the season he allowed just one hit in 5 2/3 innings against the Rockies at Coors Field. He'll be up against a Royals offense that continues to stumble on Tuesday night. Take the under (10*). |
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06-26-18 | Padres v. Rangers UNDER 10 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Padres aren't scoring with any consistency right now and while the Rangers have been on a bit of a tear at the dish, I believe they'll be held in check by San Diego starter Tyson Ross. Ross has been effective on the road this season, posting a 3.13 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 54 2/3 innings of work. He enters this outing having worked at least into the sixth inning in nine of his last 10 starts overall. Ross is coming off one of his best starts of the season, having allowed just one earned run over seven innings against the Giants, albeit in a losing effort. Austin Bibens-Dirkx has made three starts this season, working into the seventh inning in two of those. He needed only 81 pitches to go 6 2/3 innings against the Royals last time out. I look for him to build off of that performance against a slumping Padres lineup here. Take the under (10*). |
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06-25-18 | Angels v. Royals UNDER 9 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Kansas City at 4:15 pm et on Monday. The 'under' has cashed in four of six meetings between these two clubs this season and I look for that trend to continue on Monday afternoon. Neither team has been scoring with much consistency lately - particularly the Royals. Kansas City has plated three runs or less in six straight games. Tyler Skaggs will take the ball for the Angels on Monday. Skaggs has posted a 2.27 ERA and 1.11 WHIP on the road this season. He has worked at least six innings in three straight starts, allowing just one earned run in 20 innings over that stretch. He has tossed 14 scoreless frames in two career starts against the Royals. Brad Keller will counter for Kansas City. He's been stretched out over his last two outings after being on a short leash in his first two starts. Keller has given up five earned runs over his last two starts, working into the sixth inning and beyond in each of those two outings. Keep in mind, his second career start came against the Angels, and he held them to one earned run over 4 1/3 innings. Take the under (10*). |
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06-23-18 | Mariners v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Boston at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Mariners prevailed by a 14-10 score. I expect things to settle down on Saturday night at Fenway Park, however. Mike Leake will take the ball for the Mariners. He has at least worked into the sixth inning in 10 straight starts and while the 'over' has gone a perfect 3-0 in his last three outings, he has actually held five of his last six opponents to two earned runs or less. Eduardo Rodriguez will counter for Boston. Like Leake, he has been very consistent, working into the sixth inning at least in six straight starts, while allowing two earned runs or less in each of those outings. The 'under' is 3-1 in his four career starts against Seattle. Take the under (10*). |
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06-22-18 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Brewers exploded for 11 runs in a rout of the Cardinals yesterday but I expect a lower-scoring game to play out on Friday night at Miller Park. Jack Flaherty will take the ball for the Cardinals. He has certainly held his own this season, sporting a 2.66 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in nine starts. The 'under' has gone 6-2-1 in those nine contests. Flaherty has faced the Brewers once this season, allowing just one earned run in five innings. Junior Guerra will counter for Milwaukee. He checks in having worked at least into the sixth inning in five straight starts. Guerra hasn't given up more than three earned runs in a start since May 9th against Cleveland. In two outings against the Cards this season he has allowed only one earned run in 11 1/3 innings. Take the under (10*). |
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06-22-18 | Orioles v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Friday night as two teams that have been struggling to score with consistency lately go head-to-head in an interleague matchup. Baltimore will hand the ball to Alex Cobb. He missed all of spring training so the first part of the regular season was essentially his time to work out the kinks. He certainly struggled as a result. However, he has rebounded lately, working at least six innings in three of his last four starts. Note that he has also thrown fewer than 100 pitches in six of his last seven outings. The 'under' is 3-1 in Cobb's last four starts. Sean Newcomb will counter for Atlanta. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in four straight starts. Last time out, Newcomb threw six innings of two-hit shutout ball. He checks in having allowed two earned runs or less in seven of his last nine outings. Newcomb has been sharp here at home, posting a 3.07 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Take the under (10*). |
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06-21-18 | Mets v. Rockies UNDER 11 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Thursday. I'll go the contrarian route and back the 'under' at Coors Field on Thursday afternoon. Steven Matz will take the ball for the Mets. He has pitched well on the road this season, posting a 1.55 ERA. Matz has worked at least six innings in each of his last three starts, giving up only six earned runs in 19 2/3 innings of work. Note that Matz gave up just three earned runs in five innings in his lone previous outing here at Coors Field. Kyle Freeland will counter for Colorado. He has certainly looked comfortable pitching in Denver this season, posting a sub-3.00 ERA. Freeland has worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his last 10 starts. The 'under' has cashed in eight of those 10 outings. Take the under (10*). |
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06-20-18 | Marlins v. Giants UNDER 8 | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday. The first two games of this series have played 'over' the total but I look for a different story to unfold on getaway day. Jose Urena will take the ball for the Marlins. He has been consistently keeping the Fish in games, working at least into the sixth inning in nine of his last 10 starts. While I don't love the fact that he threw 112 pitches last time out and throws on four days' rest today, he is catching a Giants club that isn't scoring a boatload of runs right now. We won with the 'under' in Giants starter Derek Holland's last trip to the hill. He has allowed two earned runs or less in three straight starts, even if he hasn't been working deep into ball games. Note that the Marlins haven't scored more than five runs in any of their last eight games. I believe Holland can keep them in check again today. Take the under (10*). |
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06-19-18 | Braves v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | 11-4 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' as the Braves and Blue Jays open up an interleague series in Toronto on Tuesday night. The Braves continue to win games but aren't exactly tearing the cover off of the baseball right now. They've scored four runs or less in six of their last seven contests. Meanwhile, Toronto is coming off an eight-run outburst on Sunday and a clean sweep of the reeling Nationals at home. They've still scored just a grand total of 21 runs in their last six games, however. They'll be in tough against Braves rookie Mike Soroka on Tuesday. Soroka is coming off arguably the best start of his young career as he needed only 74 pitches to navigate 6 1/3 innings of one-hit shutout ball last week against the Mets. The 'under' is 3-1 in his first four big league starts. Jaime Garcia will counter for Toronto. He's been alternating good and bad starts and is coming off a bad one entering this contest. Note that Garcia has looked comfortable pitching here at Rogers Centre, recording a 3.00 ERA in five starts spanning 27 innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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06-19-18 | Senegal v. Poland OVER 2 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Senegal and Poland at 11 am et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'over' in this contest as Poland has scored a whopping nine goals in its last three matches heading into this tournament. While Senegal will offer a stiffer challenge than what the Polish have faced in recent months, I still believe it can be broken down and that we'll see both squads find the back of the net in this contest - which would net us a 'push' at the very least. Senegal was shutout in consecutive matches against Bosnia & Herzegovina and Luxembourg but has since bounced back, scoring three goals in splitting a pair of matches against Croatia and South Korea. Look for things to open up early in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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06-19-18 | Japan v. Colombia OVER 2 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Japan and Colombia at 8 am et on Tuesday. The only thing keeping this total in check is the fact that Colombia has been involved in back-to-back scoreless draws heading into the World Cup. I don't believe either of those results were all that shocking, however, coming against Australia and Egypt (minus Mo Salah). I believe we'll see Japan turn this into an up-tempo affair, noting that it has played five matches in 2018, with all five of those reaching at least two total goals and its most recent totaling six goals in a 4-2 win over Paraguay. Take the over (10*). |
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06-16-18 | Red Sox v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. The Red Sox haven't exactly been tearing the cover off the baseball lately, at least not the way they were earlier in the season. They'll hand the ball to knuckle-baller Steven Wright on Saturday night in Seattle. Wright has been terrific since re-joining the rotation, allowing just six hits and no earned runs in 13 2/3 innings of work, covering two starts. Going back to the start of last season, Wright has needed to throw more than 100 pitches just once in seven outings. Wade LeBlanc will counter for Seattle. LeBlanc has allowed two earned runs or less in seven of eight starts this season. He hasn't consistently worked deep into games, but has thrown less than 100 pitches in all eight of his starts. LeBlanc last faced the Red Sox back in 2016, giving up only three earned runs on five hits in six innings. Take the under (10*). |
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06-16-18 | Hamilton v. Calgary UNDER 55 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Hamilton and Calgary at 7 pm et on Saturday. The Stampeders are certainly familiar with this Ti-Cats offense run by QB Jeremiah Masoli. Last year, Calgary took both meetings by a combined 88-26 score. Masoli didn't throw a single touchdown while tossing a pair of interceptions in those two contests. Obviously, the Ti-Cats QB will be feeling some heat here with Johnny Manziel waiting in the wings. I'm not sure Manziel's presence on the bench is a good thing for this Ti-Cats offense. Calgary is of course one of the league's elite teams and a serious Grey Cup contender. However, it's the opening week of the season. I'm just not sure we'll see the Stamps come out all guns blazing in their opener. Note that the 'under' has gone 16-5-1 in the Stamps last 22 season-openers. Take the under (10*). |
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06-16-18 | Twins v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | 9-3 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Cleveland at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' at Progressive Field on Saturday afternoon as the Twins send Fernando Romero to the hill against Carlos Carrasco. Romero lasted just five innings in his most recent start but gave up just two earned runs on five hits and threw only 94 pitches. Note that he has thrown fewer than 100 pitches in seven of his eight outings this season. He'll be making his first career start against the Indians. Carrasco has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball over his last two starts, allowing only one earned run on 10 hits in 14 innings pitched, striking out 21 and walking only two along the way. He was roughed up by the Twins in his lone previous start against them this season, but has still given up one earned run or less in four of his last five starts vs. Minnesota. Take the under (10*). |
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06-15-18 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Yankees were one of the best 'over' bets in baseball for the first two months of the season but that has certainly turned around lately as they've reeled off nine straight 'under' results. I look for that trend to continue on Friday night in the Bronx. Tampa Bay will hand the ball to Nathan Eovaldi. He tossed six innings of no-hit ball in his return from Tommy John surgery and since then has worked five innings in back-to-back outings against the Nationals and Mariners. While we're dealing with a small sample size it is worth noting that his strikeout numbers are up while his walk totals are down. After giving up three home runs in his last two starts he will definitely need to do a better job of commanding the strike zone in order to keep the Yankees All-Star lineup in the ballpark on Friday. Jonathan Loaisiga will make his first big league start for the Yankees. The 23-year old hasn't even started a game at the Triple-A level so it's difficult to say how he'll adapt to facing big league hitters. The good news is he faces a lower-tier opponent in the Rays. It's also worth noting that Loiaisiga has posted an impressive 58:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the minors this season. Take the under (10*). |
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06-15-18 | Iran v. Morocco OVER 2 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Iran and Morocco at 11 am et on Friday. Few are expecting much in the way of offensive fireworks between these two countries on Friday, but I fully expect to get at least a 2-1 result. Morocco comes into this tournament having scored multiple goals in four of its five matches here in 2018. Just last week they put three goals on the board in a two-goal victory over Estonia. While they'll be facing a tougher opponent here, I do expect them to break down the Iranian defense on at least a couple of occasions. Meanwhile, Iran has some confidence having won three of its four tune-up matches this year. Last week we saw the Iranians post a 1-0 victory over Lithuania. Again, they'll be up against a tougher opponent here, and I do believe they'll come in with the mindset that they'll need to find the back of the net at least twice to come away victorious. Take the over (10*). |
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06-14-18 | Edmonton v. Winnipeg UNDER 50 | 33-30 | Loss | -107 | 47 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. It's been years since these two West Division rivals have met this early in the season - in fact, they've never met this early as far as the calendar goes as the CFL is kicking off earlier than it ever has before in 2018. That aside, the last time the Eskimos and Blue Bombers met anywhere close to this early in the campaign was 2016 when they hooked up in Week 3 and the result was a 20-16 Eskimos victory here in Winnipeg. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair to kick off the CFL season on Thursday night. The big news ahead of this one is the injury to Blue Bombers QB Matt Nichols. He is going to miss at least the first month of the season, leaving Winnipeg with Chris Streveler to start - a rookie out of the University of South Dakota. He'll be the first rookie out of college to start since Anthony Calvillo did so back in the early 90's. Don't count on the Bombers opening up the playbook for their unseasoned signal-caller. There's obviously a steep learning curve going from American to Canadian football. The good news for the Bombers is they do possess one of the league's best defenses, on paper at least. The addition of Adam Bighill is big (no pun intended) and I'm confident this unit will perform well in Thursday's opener, even as they face a tall task against arguably the best quarterback in the league in Mike Reilly. Take the under (10*). |
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06-14-18 | Saudi Arabia v. Russia OVER 2.25 | 0-5 | Win | 104 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Saudi Arabia and Russia at 11 am et on Thursday. Much of the talk leading up to the opening match of the World Cup surrounds how bad both of these squads are. Maybe that's a little harsh, but the fact is these are the two lowest-ranked teams in the entire tournament. With that being said, both squads know that they need a positive result to have any hope of moving on to the next round, and this is the match to get it. Russia is known for its defensive tactics but with key injuries at the back-end, I'm not sure we'll see that defensive prowess on Thursday. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, allowed three goals in a loss to Peru in a World Cup tune-up match earlier this month. While I do believe the Russians will be able to break down the Saudi defense in this one, I'm also confident Saudi Arabia can level the match. The door is open for a 2-1 match, likely in favor of the Russians but that's of little consequence to us as we'll stick with the total. Take the over (10*). |
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06-13-18 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 9 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 102 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
MLB N.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Milwaukee at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams have been trending to the 'under' this season and I don't see anything changing as they meet in Wednesday's series finale at Miller Park. Mike Montgomery is off to a terrific start for the Cubs this season, having worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his first three starts, allowing a grand total of two earned runs in 17 2/3 innings of work. He has needed just 76, 76 and 95 pitches to get through those three outings so he has been relatively efficient as well. The Brewers haven't been scoring with much consistency over the last couple of weeks so Montgomery may be catching them at the right time here. Jhoulys Chacin wil counter for Milwaukee. He's been sharp here at home this season, posting a 2.79 ERA in 29 innings of work. His five home starts have averaged a total of just 7.6 runs scored. Chacin brings solid form to the table having worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven starts. He hasn't thrown more than 100 pitches in a start since April 20th so his arm should be in fine shape for this one. Take the under (10*). |
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06-12-18 | Nationals v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Yankees were the best 'over' bet in baseball for the better part of the first two months of the season but now they check into this series riding a six-game 'under' streak. I look for that trend to continue on Tuesday as the Nationals send Tanner Roark to the hill against CC Sabathia. Roark has been extremely consistent this season, working at least six innings in nine of his last 10 starts and giving up three earned runs or less in seven of those starts. Last time out he allowed only two earned runs over six innings against the Rays. The Nats' gave Roark 11 runs in that game but generally haven't provided him a great deal of run support, putting up four runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts overall. Sabathia bounced back from a rough stretch, allowing only two earned runs on three hits over seven innings against the Blue Jays last time out. He has been fairly consistent at home this season, posting a 3.07 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 29 1/3 innings here at Yankee Stadium. His starts have generally been high-scoring but but here we're dealing with a fairly high posted total as well. Take the under (10*). |
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06-11-18 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 109 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Cleveland exploded for nine runs in yesterday's victory in Detroit, matching its highest offensive output since putting up nine runs in a game on May 31st. Note that the Indians had scored just 20 runs in total over their previous six contests. Meanwhile, the White Sox posted an impressive series win over the Red Sox at Fenway Park but scored only eight runs in the process. They've plated a grand total of 29 runs over their last nine games overall. Carlos Carrasco will take the ball for the Indians. He bounced back nicely following back-to-back shaky outings, allowing just one earned run over seven innings last time out against Milwaukee. Note that he has worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven starts. His road starts are averaging just seven total runs this season. The 'under' has cashed in each of Carrasco's last four starts against the White Sox and he's given up only four earned runs in 29 1/3 innings of work. Lucas Giolito will counter for Chicago. He was rocked for seven earned runs and lasted only 1 1/3 innings against the Orioles back on May 24th. However, since then he has worked six innings in back-to-back outings - last time out allowing just two earned runs in Minnesota. The 'under' has gone 3-1-1 in Giolito's last five starts overall. Take the under (10*). |
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06-10-18 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -119 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Los Angeles at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in the series finale between the Braves and Dodgers on Sunday afternoon. Sean Newcomb will take the ball for Atlanta. He is off to an incredible start this season, having gone 7-1 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Newcomb has worked at least six innings in eight of his last nine starts and has given up two earned runs or less in six of his last seven outings. He's been getting a ton of run support on the road, well north of six runs per start, but I'm not expecting the Braves bats to do much damage on Sunday afternoon. That's because the Dodgers will turn to Ross Stripling, who has been pitching exceptionally well. Stripling has posted a 4-1 record to go along with a 1.52 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. We won with the 'under' in his most recent start as he pitched five shutout innings, allowing just four hits and no walks while striking out seven against the Pirates. The 'under' is 5-1 in Stripling's last six trips to the hill. Take the under (10*). |
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06-10-18 | Indians v. Tigers UNDER 8 | 9-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll take a flyer on Tigers rookie starter Artie Lewicki in this one. That's essentially what we're doing by playing the 'under' in Detroit on Sunday afternoon. Lewicki made his first start of the season last week in Boston and didn't fare all that well, giving up four runs, two of them earned, on five hits over 3 2/3 innings. It's not as if he was overworked in that outing, however, as he threw only 71 pitches, leaving him in fine shape as he pitches on four days' rest on Sunday afternoon. Corey Kluber will take the ball for Cleveland. Not surprisingly, he's in Cy Young form, having posted a 1.96 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 91 2/3 innings of work this season. Kluber has at least worked into the seventh inning in four of his last five starts. The 'over' has actually cashed in seven of his last nine outings, but that only serves to give us value with the 'under' in this matchup. Take the under (10*). |
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06-09-18 | Angels v. Twins UNDER 9 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Minnesota at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. We saw a low-scoring affair to open this series last night and I'm anticipating another tight contest on Saturday afternoon. Tyler Skaggs will take the ball for the Angels. He bounced back from a couple of skaky outings by tossing six shutout innings against the Rangers last time out. Note that Skaggs has posted an impressive 2.94 ERA and 1.16 WHIP on the road this season. He gave up just two earned runs in six innings in a start against the Twins back on May 11th. Kyle Gibson will counter for Minnesota. I actually consider him to be one of the more underrated starters in baseball this season. Gibson has worked at least into the sixth inning in six straight starts. He has allowed exactly two earned runs in each of his last five starts against the Angels. While Gibson's home ERA is north of five, he has settled down lately at Target Field, giving up five earned runs on eight hits in 11 2/3 innings over his last two starts. Neither team is putting up big runs with much consistency right now. Take the under (10*). |
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06-09-18 | Mariners v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | 3-7 | Loss | -117 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Tampa Bay at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. We saw a low-scoring game to open this series last night and I expect more of the same on Saturday as the Mariners send Felix Hernandez to the hill against Blake Snell. Hernandez has turned things around nicely, working at least six innings in three of his last four starts. His last start came against the same Rays he'll face on Saturday and he gave up just one earned run on five hits over eight innings. Note that he has allowed a grand total of four earned runs in his last five starts against Tampa Bay. Blake Snell has been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball this season, going 7-3 with a 2.36 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He hasn't given up a single earned run over his last three starts, spanning 17 2/3 innings. Snell's home starts this season are averaging just 6.8 total runs so while we're dealing with a low posted total here, I don't believe it is too low to warrant a play. Take the under (10*). |
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06-09-18 | Giants v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | 5-7 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Washington at 12:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in early action at Nationals Park on Sunday afternoon. Rookie Dereck Rodriguez will take the ball for the Giants. As you've probably heard, he's the son of hall-of-famer Ivan 'Pudge' Rodriguez. So far so good for the young pitcher as he allowed only one earned run over six innings in his first big league start against the Phillies, needing only 85 pitches to get through that outing. Gio Gonzalez will counter for Washington. He has been outstanding lately, working at least seven innings in three straight starts, giving up just five earned runs on 13 hits in 21 2/3 innings over that stretch. The 'under' has cashed in each of his last two starts. Note that he has worked at least six innings in three of his last four starts against the Giants, with the 'under' going 3-1. While both clubs have been hitting pretty well lately, the early start may help settle things down on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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06-08-18 | Royals v. A's UNDER 7.5 | 2-7 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Oakland at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The 'under' has now cashed in four of the Royals last five games after another low-scoring affair to open this series last night. Jakob Junis will take the mound for Kansas City on Friday. He has impressed so far this season, particularly on the road, where he has posted a 2.84 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. The 'under' has gone 5-1 in his last six outings. Junis pitched well against the A's just last week, giving up three earned runs while striking out nine over 7 1/3 innings. Frankie Montas will counter for Oakland. He tossed seven shutout innings for Oakland in Kansas City last weekend. In two starts so far this season, Montas has allowed just one earned run on 10 hits over 14 innings of work. The Royals have plated a grand total of only 11 runs over the course of their five-game losing streak. Take the under (10*). |
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06-08-18 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 216 | Top | 108-85 | Win | 100 | 36 h 35 m | Show |
NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Golden State and Cleveland at 9 pm et on Friday. The Warriors have had four previous series-clinching opportunities in these playoffs, going 3-1 straight-up in those games. For our purposes with this play, it’s worth noting that those games have averaged just 198.3 total points, with only one of those games surpassing the total we’re working with on Friday night. The Cavs played about as well as we could have expected in Game 3 of this series but could still only muster 102 points in a losing effort. They know they’re not coming back to win this series at this point, and I certainly don’t think they’re interested in getting involved in a track meet with the Warriors on Friday night. Meanwhile, after three games, and with Andre Iguodala back in the rotation, the Warriors should have a pretty good handle on how to contain the Cavs less-than-complex offense at this point. It’s really up to Golden State how it wants this game to play out and based on its track record in these playoffs, I look for it to lock down the Cleveland offense as it stares down an opportunity to wrap up this series rather than drag it out another few days. Steph Curry isn’t going to go 0-for-9 from three-point range again but I’m also not sure we’ll see Kevin Durant go off the way he did in Game 3. Cleveland made every effort to push the pace early in Game 3 and got off to a fantastic start in the first two minutes, but it wasn’t able to keep up that frantic tempo and certainly wasn’t effective getting back on defense while doing so. As I mentioned, the Cavs know they aren’t going to beat the Warriors at their own game. The last time the Warriors wrapped up an NBA title here on this floor in Cleveland back in 2016, they did so with a 105-97 victory in Game 6. I expect to see a similar story unfold on Friday night. Take the under (10*). |
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06-08-18 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 9 | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Arlington on Friday night. We won with the 'under' in the opener of this series last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Justin Verlander will take the ball for the Astros. He's coming off a bit of a shaky outing against the Red Sox, by his standards anyway. Still, Verlander has worked at least six innings in all but one of his 13 starts this season. He has also allowed two earned runs or less in 12 of those 13 outings. Doug Fister gets the nod for the Rangers. He has held four of his last five opponents to three earned runs or less. He has also worked at least six innings in six of his last seven starts. The 'under' is 5-1 in his last six trips to the hill. Fister has faced the Astros twice already this season and has fared alright, giving up just four earned runs in 11 1/3 innings. Take the under (10*). |
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06-07-18 | Lynx v. Mystics UNDER 159.5 | 88-80 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Washington at 4 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' the last time these two teams met back on May 27th but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in today's rematch. The Lynx continue to scuffle along, having lost four games in a row, and most recently managed only 69 points in a loss against the rival Sparks in Los Angeles. The 'under' is now 5-2 in Minnesota's seven games played this season. Meanwhile, the Mystics have dropped three of their last four overall and put up only 64 points in a rout at the hands of Connecticut here at home last time out. The 'under' has cashed in each of their last two games. The last time these two teams met, both were rolling - the Lynx were off to a 2-0 start while Washington had won three games in a row. We ended up seeing 168 total points in that one. I expect a different type of game to play out on Thursday afternoon as both teams desperately try to regain their footing. Take the under (10*). |
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06-07-18 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 9 | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 16 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Minnesota at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' at Target Field on Thursday afternoon. James Shields will take the ball for the White Sox. After a rough start to the season he has settled in, working at least six innings in eight consecutive starts, and at least seven innings in each of his last four trips to the hill. It's also worth noting he has allowed three earned runs or less in each of his last four starts. The last time he faced the Twins on May 6th, Shields gave up just three earned runs in 6 2/3 innings. Jose Berrios will counter for Minnesota. He has worked at least into the sixth innings in six straight starts. He did see his streak of three consecutive 'unders' come to an end last time out but I look for it to pick back up here. Berrios certainly has some room for improvement after allowing four earned runs in six innings against the White Sox on May 4th. In his previous start against them, here at Target Field, Berrios tossed seven shutout innings in a 4-0 win on April 12th. Take the under (10*). |
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06-06-18 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 217 | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Cleveland at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The first two games in this series have gone 'over' the total (we won with the over in Game 1 but missed with the under in Game 2) but I expect a different story to play out on Wednesday night at the Q. First of all, we have a catalyst for change in place here as the series shifts to Cleveland. It's also worth noting that the two teams are relatively well rested having had two off days following each of the first two games of the series. While the Warriors carry a reputation as being an offensive juggernaut and an 'over' machine for betting purposes, the fact is they've actually trended toward the 'under' with a 46-54-1 o/u mark this season and have only posted three or more consecutive 'over' results on two different occasions - with both of those streaks coming during the regular season. Last year's NBA Finals were high-scoring throughout, although the first game of that series did stay 'under' the total. In the last three Finals series' between these two teams we have yet to see the first three games all go 'over' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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06-06-18 | A's v. Rangers UNDER 10.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair in the series opener between these A.L. West rivals last night. That game got off to a slow start before the Rangers offense took over. Look for a different story to unfold tonight. Daniel Mengden will take the ball for the A's. He has quietly been one of the best starters in the American League so far this season, going 6-4 with a 2.91 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Mengden has worked at least seven innings in each of his last three starts and has gone at least six innings in five consecutive outings. Over that stretch his highest pitch count was just 102. Note that he has worked at least into the sixth inning in three of four career starts against the Rangers and tossed seven innings of four-hit shutout ball here in Arlington last year. Bartolo Colon will counter for Texas. He's been alternating good and bad starts lately and is certainly coming off a disappointing outing against the Angels in which he lasted just three innings. I do look for him to bounce back here, noting that Colon has given up just four earned runs and worked at least six innings in both starts against the A's since the start of last season. Take the under (10*). |
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06-05-18 | Dodgers v. Pirates UNDER 8 | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Dodgers are coming off a high-scoring series in Colorado but I expect a different story to unfold in Tuesday's series opener in Pittsburgh. We have a matchup between two unheralded starting pitchers that are performing exceptionally well right now. Ross Stripling takes the ball for the Dodgers. He checks in with a sparkling 1.68 ERA in 48 1/3 innings of work this season. Stripling has seemingly been getting stronger with each passing start, most recently allowing just one earned run on four hits over seven innings against the Phillies. Note that the 'under' is 4-1 in his last five starts overall. Joe Musgrove will counter for Pittsburgh. He has worked exactly seven innings in each of his previous two starts this season, allowing a grand total of just one earned run. Musgrove has yet to allow a home run in 14 innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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06-04-18 | Golden Knights v. Capitals UNDER 5.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Washington at 8:10 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'under' in Game 2 of this series and after passing on the total in Game 3, we'll go back to the well with the 'under' in Game 4 on Monday night. We continue to see totals set at 5.5 in this series although I wouldn't rule out seeing a 5 if things continue to go the way they have the last couple of games. Both goaltenders are back to playing well following a tough series opener, Braden Holtby in particular. The Golden Knights simply haven't been able to generate many good scoring opportunities over the last couple of games, due in part to the Capitals playing tremendous defensive hockey. And when the Knights have managed to break through Holtby has been equal to the task. I look for Vegas to do a better job of containing the Caps stars, namely Alex Ovechkin and Evgeni Kuznetsov. Take the under (10*). |
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06-03-18 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 215 | 103-122 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Golden State at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in Game 2 on Sunday night. Both teams got off to blazing starts in the opener, and the result was a high-scoring opening quarter. But from there things did settle down and we saw some stretches of sloppy basketball - the type of basketball that has been fairly common in both teams' current playoff runs. I'm not sure we're going to see another peak Lebron effort in Game 2. But on the flip side, I also haven't loved what I've seen from the Warriors, who have looked far more disjointed than in previous playoff campaigns. Keep in mind, these two teams were involved in a game that reached only 191 total points in the regular season so the potential is there for a relatively low-scoring, physical affair. I expect to see that physicality ramp up in the second game of the series. Take the under (10*). |
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06-02-18 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 11 | 12-4 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Colorado at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' at Coors Field on Saturday night. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between the Dodgers and Rockies in the opener of this series last night but I expect a different story to unfold here. Walker Buehler will take the ball for the Dodgers. He's been extremely efficient in working seven innings in each of his last two starts, allowing just two earned runs. He has yet to throw more than 97 pitches in a start this season. German Marquez will counter for the Rockies. Like Buehler, he has also lasted seven innings in each of his last two starts. Over that stretch he gave up only seven hits and two earned runs. Note that Marquez has worked at least six innings in four of his last six outings. Take the under (10*). |
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05-31-18 | Aces v. Storm UNDER 168 | 74-101 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Las Vegas and Seattle at 10 pm et on Thursday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams in Vegas this past Sunday as Seattle jumped ahead big early and hung on late for a 105-98 win. I expect a different type of game to unfold on Thursday in Seattle, however, noting that the highest-scoring game between these two teams last year only got to 167 points, and needed overtime to do so (when the Aces were the Silver Stars). Prior to Sunday's 98-point outburst, the Aces had been held to just 65 and 70 points in their first two games this season. They welcomed Kayla McBride back to the lineup and her presence obviously gave them a boost but I'm not anticipating similar offensive output here. The Storm have already played five games this season, winning four of them. After jumping ahead early and letting their opposition climb back in over their last couple of games I look for them to tighten things up considerably tonight. We have certainly seen what the Storm are capable of defensively this season, holding Phoenix to 71 points and Washington to 77 points in two games of note. The 'over' is 4-1 in their five previous games but that only serves to give us value with the 'under' here in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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05-31-18 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 214 | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. In last year's Finals opener we saw the lowest scoring game of the series, reaching just 204 total points. In fact, that was the only 'under' result in the series as the next four games flew 'over' the number. I expect a different story to unfold here in the 2018 Finals. The Warriors won't be afforded the luxury of having the Cavs missing over and over again from three-point range the way the Rockets did last round. While the Cavs are likely going to be missing Kevin Love once again, they won't be missing arguably their most important player the way the Rockets were at the end of the Western Finals either. With all of that said, I don't think we'll see the Cavs offer much resistance defensively. The Celtics seemed to bail the Cavs out last round, particularly in Game 7 of that series as they displayed some poor shot selection and couldn't really get into any sort of offensive groove. Here, I'm confident the Warriors will be on the attack for 48 minutes and find plenty of success against a vulnerable Cavs defense. The last time these two teams met in January we saw a closing total of 233.5. We're obviously working with a much different number here and that has everything to do with the Warriors 1-9 o/u record over their last 10 games. That has little bearing in the opener of this series though. Take the over (10*). |
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05-30-18 | Capitals v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 105 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Vegas at 8:15 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Game 1 of this series on Monday night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Wednesday. Let's go back to the 2010 Stanley Cup Final for a moment. Chicago won the opener of that series by a 6-5 score on home ice - not unlike Vegas' wild 6-4 win in Game 1 of this series. How did Game 2 play out? Much differently. While the outcome was the same with the Blackhawks grabbing a 2-0 series lead, the final score was 2-1 - a much more controlled affair. I expect a similar story to unfold in Vegas on Wednesday night. Neither goaltender was on top of their game in the series opener but I expect a bounce-back from both Braden Holtby and Marc-Andre Fleury here. Meanwhile, expect a lot more attention to detail from both squads, not to mention better discipline. Take the under (10*). |
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05-29-18 | Twins v. Royals UNDER 9 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams to open this series yesterday, even though the first four innings were scoreless. Both teams have trended to the 'under' this season and I look for a return to that form on Tuesday night. Kyle Gibson has pitched well for the Twins this season. His hits allowed are way down, strikeouts are up and home runs allowed also well below last year's pace. Gibson has at least worked into the sixth inning in four straight starts heading into this one, needing to throw over 100 pitches only once over that stretch. Note that his last three road starts have totaled 7, 8 and 8 runs. He has allowed just two earned runs in his last two outings against the Royals, spanning 13 innings of work. Danny Duffy will counter for Kansas City. The left-hander has been wildly inconsistent this season but is coming off a fine outing in Texas, in which he allowed just one earned run on four hits over 7 2/3 innings. Not to make excuses for him, but Duffy has faced an extremely tough slate of opponents this season but catches a bit of a break here as the Twins haven't been scoring with any consistency. Note that Duffy has allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts against Minnesota. Both bullpens were bad in yesterday's ball game but I expect to see better performances on the mound on Tuesday. Take the under (10*). |
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05-29-18 | Lynx v. Dream OVER 156 | 74-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'over' in the Lynx's most recent game - a 90-78 loss in Washington on Sunday afternoon. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as Minnesota stays on the road to play the Dream in Atlanta. The Lynx are off to a surprisingly slow start having split their first four games. They've yet to score more than 78 points in a game which is alarming considering they didn't score lower than 80 points in four games until August last year. I do see this as a favorable spot for them to bust out offensively. Keep in mind, Atlanta has already allowed over 100 points in a game on one occasion this season. The Dream have bounced back with better defensive efforts in their last two games but will be taking a step up in class here. Atlanta turned in a miserable shooting performance against Dallas last time out, connecting on less than 30% of their FG attempts. The pace was there, however, as they hoisted up 85 shots in that contest. Expect a relatively high-scoring affair on Tuesday night. Take the over (10*). |
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05-28-18 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 208.5 | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Houston at 9:05 pm et on Monday. We saw a very low-scoring game between the Cavs and Celtics last night (we won with the 'under') and while I don't expect that type of slugfest here in Game 7 of the Western Finals, I am confident this contest will stay 'under' the posted total. We've seen the totals drop drastically over the course of this series, but it's been warranted in my opinion. Even in Game 6, when the two teams took turns going on monster runs, the game still stayed comfortably 'under' the number. I certainly expect some pushback from the Rockets here after they were run out of the gym on Saturday night. But I'm not convinced Houston's offense can figure things out, clearly mired in a major shooting slump, particularly from beyond the arc, in this series. Whether Chris Paul is able to play or not, I'm not anticipating a track meet between these two teams who are obviously extremely familiar with one another at this point. Take the under (10*). |
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05-28-18 | Capitals v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | 4-6 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Vegas at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Based on how these teams were playing at the end of the Conference Final round I believe the case could be made for totals set at '5' in this series. However, we're seeing 5.5's across the board in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final on Monday night - I'm just not convinced the winning side finds the back of the net more than three times in this contest. Note that the lone regular season meeting between these two teams here in Vegas totaled just three goals (3-0 Golden Knights victory) back in December. Their matchup in Washington totaled seven goals (with Vegas winning 4-3) in February. We've got a matchup of two veteran goaltenders at the top of their game in Braden Holtby and Marc-Andre Fleury. Don't count on a wild, high-scoring affair to open this battle on Monday night. Take the under (10*). |
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05-27-18 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 200 | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Boston at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Game 7 between the Cavs and Celtics on Sunday night. It's certainly worth noting that the 'under' has gone 3-0 in three games in Boston in this series while the 'over' has cashed in two of three games in Cleveland. The Cavs actually took a step back in Game 6, putting up 109 points after scoring 116 and 111 points in Games 3 and 4 in Cleveland. Lebron James turned in one of the biggest performances of his career in Game 6 but he'll have a tough time replicating that feat in Boston, where the Celtics have done a good job defending him in this series. While the Celtics have enjoyed plenty of success in this series, particularly at home, this is still a young team hosting a squad of seasoned veterans with a spot in the NBA Finals on the line - I do think we'll see them display some nerves, at least early in this contest. This is the lowest total we've seen in this series so far, but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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05-27-18 | Lynx v. Mystics OVER 156.5 | 78-90 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Washington at 3 pm et on Sunday. These two teams met six times last season, with four of those games at least getting into the 160's and three of them reaching the 170's. This total has opened relatively low, but I do expect it to move up. With that being said, the potential is there for the two teams to sail 'over' the number. Washington has performed exceptionally well at the offensive end of the floor, with the exception of a flat spot at home against the Las Vegas Aces in its second game (we won with the Aces in that game). Meanwhile, we've yet to see Minnesota's best as it has been held under 80 points in three straight games to open the season, but it's coming. The Lynx shot poorly in their last game in New York, but still managed to approach 80 points. Expect them to top that number on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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05-27-18 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 7 | 5-2 | Push | 0 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Miami at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams last night and while Sunday's pitching matchup may look better on paper, I expect to see more runs on the board. Stephen Strasburg will take the ball for the Nationals. While his numbers are solid this season, particularly on the road, I can't help but feel he's been laboring lately. Strasburg has worked at least into the seventh inning in each of his last six starts but has needed to throw at least 103 pitches in all six of those outings. Last time out he threw 115 pitches against the Dodgers. Note that the 'over' has gone 4-1 in his last five trips to the hill. Elieser Hernandez will counter for Miami. We won with the 'under' in his most recent start - a 2-0 loss to the Mets. He has pitched well in his first two big league starts but has clearly been on a pitch count and it's hard to say how much the Marlins want to stretch him out in this one. The Nats have been in fine form at the dish in this series, plating 13 runs in the first two games. I look for them to have another find day at the plate on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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05-23-18 | Wings v. Lynx OVER 166.5 | 68-76 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Minnesota at 8 pm et on Wednesday. The Lynx saw their season opener go 'under' the total but that was against a very familiar opponent in the L.A. Sparks. Keep in mind, those two teams went the distance in last year's WNBA Finals. Not surprisingly they were involved in a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair in their 2018 opener. I expect a different story to unfold here as the Lynx should be able to get out and run against a Dallas squad that won't shy away from a track meet. The Wings opened the campaign with a tough 86-78 loss at Phoenix but followed it up with a 101-78 rout of what should be a solid Atlanta Dream squad. That's pretty much what you're going to get from the Wings, offensive prowess but defensive inconsistency. I do feel like Dallas can rack up some points in the paint against the Lynx on Wednesday night. The Wings had no answers for the Lynx offense a year ago, giving up 89, 91 and 100 points in three meetings. I'm not sure that changes here. On the flip side, Dallas should improve on the 78 points per game it produced against Minnesota last season. Take the over (10*). |
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05-21-18 | Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 207 | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Cleveland at 8:35 pm et on Monday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in Game 3 of this series on Saturday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' on Monday as we're starting to see a real 'under' trend build for both teams. Obviously the first three games of this series have now gone 'under' and so have five of the Celtics last six games overall and four of the Cavs last five. Five of six meetings between these two games have stayed 'under' the total this season. All three games in this series have been decided by double-digit margins. Game 2 was the most competitive but even that contest couldn't get 'over' the total thanks to fourth quarter scoring lapses from both teams. This is clearly a pivotal game in this series as we'll see what kind of fight the Celtics show after getting their first taste of adversity. I'm expecting gritty performances from both teams. Take the under (10*). |
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05-21-18 | Yankees v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | 10-5 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Rangers offense sputtered at the end of their road trip and now they return home to host the Yankees, who surge into this series after scoring 18 runs in a pair of victories over the Royals on the weekend. Masahiro Tanaka will take the ball for New York on Monday. He held his own in his most recent start, giving up three earned runs over five innings (and needing only 72 pitches to do so) in a rain-shortened game in Washington. Tanaka had worked into the sixth inning at least in each of his previous four outings. Bartolo Colon will counter for Texas. He has worked at least seven innings in three of his last four starts and has yet to throw more than 98 pitches in a start this season. The veteran right-hander will once again simply be tasked with keeping the Rangers in the game on Monday night, and I look for him to do exactly that. Take the under (10*). |
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05-21-18 | Marlins v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and New York at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I really like the way the 'under' sets up in the opener of this series on Monday night in New York. The Marlins were involved in a high-scoring affair in yesterday's series finale against the Braves but I look for a different story to unfold in this one. Rookie Elieser Hernandez will take the ball for the Mets on Monday. After making two relief appearances he made his first career start last week against the Dodgers, and pitched well, allowing just one earned run on three hits over five innings of work. He needed only 75 pitches to get through those five innings. Jason Vargas will counter for New York. He has gotten off to a disastrous start this season, allowing 19 earned runs on 26 hits in 12 1/3 innings, spanning three starts. Keep in mind, Vargas was an 18-game winner with a 4.16 ERA as a member of the Royals last year. I see this as a solid bounce-back spot for the veteran left-hander. Take the under (10*). |
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05-20-18 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 226 | 85-126 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Golden State at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. I certainly don't see the Rockets backing down as this series shifts to Oakland for Game 3 on Sunday night. With that being said, I also look for the Warriors to force the issue here, and perform much better than they did in Game 2 of this series on Wednesday night. Note that the lone regular season meeting here at Oracle Arena resulted in a 122-121 Rockets victory on the opening night of the regular season. We're dealing with the highest total in this playoff series so far, but I believe the number can and will go even higher as the series progresses. There will be spots to play the 'under' but this isn't one of them in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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05-19-18 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 205 | 86-116 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Cleveland at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in Game 2 of this series on Tuesday night as neither team could find any offensive consistency in the fourth quarter, ultimately ruining what looked like an easy, rocking chair winner after three quarters. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the series shifts to Cleveland, however. I fully expect to see the Celtics to continue to attack, albeit with some wiser shot selection than we saw in the fourth quarter in Game 2. The Cavs could have easily gotten back into that game were it not for some dreadful fourth quarter shooting and shot selection of their own on that night. Look for them to do a much better job of getting to the basket and forcing the issue rather than hoisting up desperation three-pointers the way they did late in Game 2. The Cavs will also need to stop standing around and watching Lebron James. I don't see that being as much of an issue here at home in Game 3. Regardless whether this is a tight game or a lopsided affair, I believe we'll see plenty of scoring all the way through. Take the over (10*). |
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05-18-18 | Rays v. Angels UNDER 8 | 8-3 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Anaheim on Friday night. These two clubs are heading in opposite directions right now with the Rays having won four games in a row and the Angels having dropped their last three. While I'm not sure how this one will play out in terms of who wins and loses, I do expect a tight, relatively low-scoring affair. Blake Snell takes the mound for the Rays. Despite his career 15-18 record, Snell has actually been a solid contributor in the Rays rotation over the last few seasons. So far this year, Snell has posted a 3.12 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, and prior to a rough outing against the Orioles in Baltimore last time out, he had pitched at least six innings in six consecutive starts. Nick Tropeano is by no means a household name, but he's pitching well for the Angels, returning to the rotation after missing the entire 2017 season due to injury. Tropeano has at least worked into the sixth inning in all five of his starts this season. Note that the 'under' has gone 4-1 in those five games. The problem he may face tonight is the fact that the Angels aren't scoring right now, having plated just 15 runs in their last seven games combined. Take the under (10*). |
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05-18-18 | Yankees v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Friday. Perhaps these two clubs' reputations precede them as we're dealing with a lofty total in the opener of this series on Friday night in Kansas City. CC Sabathia will take the ball for the Yankees. He struggled last time out, allowing four earned run on nine hits in just four innings of work. Keep in mind, that start came against the Boston Red Sox. He'll be taking a step down in class against the Royals here. In two starts against Kansas City last year, Sabathia allowed only three earned runs over 12 2/3 innings. The 'under' has cashed in five of his last six trips to the hill against the Royals. Jakob Junis will counter for Kansas City. He has been quietly effective this season, despite pitching for one of the worst teams in baseball. With that being said, Junis is fresh off a rocky outing, giving up four earned runs on six hits over 5 2/3 innings. That start came on the road against the Indians, a tough challenge to be sure. He'll face another tough challenge against the Yankees here but I'm confident he'll hang in there. Note that Junis has at least worked into the sixth inning in five straight and seven of eight starts overall this season. The Royals are giving up just 3.25 runs per contest in his four starts at Kaufman Stadium. Take the under (10*). |
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05-16-18 | Jets v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Vegas at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. Two of three regular season meetings between these two teams played 'over' the total, including the lone matchup here in Vegas, which reached seven total goals. The first two games in this playoff series, however, have both failed to eclipse the posted total. Look for that to change on Wednesday night as the scene shifts to Sin City. The Knights were fortunate not to fall into an early hole in Game 2 of this series with a couple of pucks getting behind Marc-Andre Fleury in the opening stages of the first period before he settled in. I liked the jump the Knights showed, even after falling in the series opener, and they were certainly rewarded for their play with a couple of early goals, and ultimately a win. Now I look for an answer from the Jets, but I also expect the Knights offense to keep rolling. The oddsmakers have made the shift as far as the total goes in this series but I believe we've yet to see these two offenses bring their 'A' game. It's coming. Take the over (10*). |
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05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 225 | 105-127 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Houston at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Houston on Wednesday night as the Rockets try to even things up with the Warriors in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals. The Rockets can play a lot better defensively than they did in Game 1 on Monday night. Houston simply had no answers for the Warriors offense, particularly in the second half as Kevin Durant paced the charge with 37 points. Meanwhile, the Warriors did just about as good as you could expect as far as containing the Rockets goes, giving up 41 points to James Harden but holding the team to just under 46% shooting and 13 made threes. I'm really not sure how many adjustments Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni can make heading into this one. The Warriors are a better defensive team than most give them credit for, noting that they've held the opposition to 44.5% shooting this season. While Golden State is more than capable of prevailing in a track meet with Houston, I'm not sure it is all that eager to get involved in such a contest with a 1-0 series lead in its back pocket. Take the under (10*). |
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05-16-18 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 8-2 | Loss | -113 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Arizona at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday. The D'Backs have been ravaged by injuries in the early going this season with A.J. Pollock the latest to hit the D.L. They need guys like Wednesday's starter Matt Koch to step up in the absence of Taijuan Walker and Robbie Ray, and so far so good as far as Koch goes. He checks in 2-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. He hasn't been doing it with smoke and mirrors either. In Koch's last start he held the Nationals to just three earned runs, needing only 97 pitches to work eight innings in a tough 3-1 home loss. Brandon Woodruff got lit up in his last start for the Brewers, but you can take that with a grain of salt as the outing came at Coors Field in Denver. Perhaps he had gotten a little ahead of himself after back-to-back solid relief outings. Despite his ugly overall numbers, Woodruff has actually been striking out opposing hitters at a higher rate while issuing fewer walks compared to a year ago, when he posted a 4.81 ERA in eight appearances. Take the under (10*). |
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05-15-18 | Cavs v. Celtics OVER 202.5 | Top | 94-107 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Cleveland and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Cavs were essentially run out of the building in Game 1 of this series in Boston on Sunday afternoon (we won with the Celtics), scoring only 35 first half points en route to a 108-83 beatdown at the hands of the Celtics. While I’m not sure the Cavs make the complete turnaround and win Game 2, I am confident we’ll see them put forth a much stronger offensive showing. Lebron James certainly said all of the right things after that Game 1 blowout and I believed much of what he said in that he’s not one bit concerned by one loss. Look for a big game out of Lebron on Tuesday night as he takes advantage of what I consider an average Celtics defense. On the flip side, Boston continues to impress, getting offensive contributions from everywhere on the floor. Despite getting only 17 points combined from Terry Rozier and Marcus Smart, the C’s still managed to easily eclipse the 100-point mark on Sunday. There’s little reason to expect much of a letdown here. Brad Stevens continues to prove himself as one of the league’s best coaches and I’m confident he’ll make a few adjustments to keep the offense flowing on Tuesday night. We’re dealing with a lower posted total than we saw in the series opener, but I believe it’s the wrong move. Expect a competitive, relatively high-scoring affair on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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05-14-18 | Reds v. Giants OVER 8 | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and San Francisco at 10:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' at AT&T Park on Monday night. Sal Romano will take the ball for the streaking Reds. Romano has put up excellent numbers over his last three starts after struggling in the early part of the season. But my concern is that his strong numbers recently have had more to do with the opposition he has faced than anything else. Romano's last three starts have come at Minnesota and at home against Miami and New York (Mets). Note that Romano's first five starts this season totaled 11, 11, 17, 2 and 14 runs before his recent three-start stretch. Romano gave up nine home runs in 87 innings pitched last season. He has already been tagged for seven in only 42 1/3 innings this season. Chris Stratton will counter for the Giants. He is giving up more home runs and walks than he did a year ago, with the wheels coming off over his last few starts. Stratton has allowed 17 hits and 14 earned runs in 12 innings over that stretch. He did have a solid outing in Atlanta two starts back but it's worth noting that game still reached 13 total runs. Take the over (10*). |
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05-13-18 | A's v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and New York at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. This has been a wild, high-scoring series so far with back-to-back slugfests here in the Bronx on Friday and Saturday. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday afternoon, however. First, it's worth noting that the A's had been held to two runs or less in five consecutive games entering this series. Brett Anderson will take the ball for the A's on Sunday afternoon. He was roughed up by the Astros in his most recent start after pitching well against the Mariners in his season debut. Note that he tossed five shutout innings of three-hit ball here in the Bronx as a member of the Blue Jays last October. Luis Severino has been light out for the Yankees in the early going this season, particularly at home, where he has gone 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.72 WHIP. He is winless in two career starts against the A's but look for him to make amends on Sunday. Take the under (10*). |
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05-12-18 | Golden Knights v. Jets UNDER 6 | Top | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
NHL Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Vegas at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. While most are expecting this to be a high-scoring series, I don't see it playing out that way. Both teams are loaded with speed and high skill but they also boast two outstanding goaltenders that are absolutely at the top of their game right now. Marc-Andre Fleury has to be considered the front-runner for Conn Smythe through the first two rounds of the playoffs. He's enjoying a record-setting run between the pipes and I don't see him suffering any sort of letdown against the high-flying Jets. While Pekka Rinne got most of the press leading up to the much-anticipated showdown between the Jets and Predators, it was Connor Hellebuyck that stole the show. He shut the Preds down in Game 7 and I expect plenty of carry-over from that performance in the opener of the West Final. The 'over' went 2-1 in three regular season meetings between these two teams this season but both 'over' results came December 1st and earlier. The most recent matchup was played in February, and that game totaled only four goals in regulation time with Vegas ultimately winning 3-2 in overtime. Take the under (10*). |
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05-10-18 | Jets v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Nashville at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Unlike the lone previous Game 7 in these playoffs, I don't see the winning team getting north of three goals in this contest. This has been a memorable series to be sure and it's only fitting that it comes down to a seventh and deciding game. We've seen some wild, high-scoring affairs in this series, but we've also seen some slugfests. I'm anticipating more of the latter on Thursday night. Neither side gives an inch and both goaltenders bring their 'A' game in what sets up as one of the most intriguing games of the entire playoffs. Take the under (10*). |
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05-08-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors OVER 226.5 | Top | 104-113 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
NBA Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Golden State at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Pelicans quite simply couldn't knock down their shots in Game 4 of this series and the Warriors rolled to an easy victory as a result (we won with Golden State and the 'under'). I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' in this elimination game on Tuesday night. There's reason for the Pelicans to be confident heading into this one as they've scored at least 115 points in five of eight meetings between these two teams this season. The Warriors came out with the right level of intensity in Game 4 on Sunday, but that was coming off a 19-point drubbing just two nights earlier. Here, I'm not sure they manhandle the Pelicans right out of the gate in quite the same way. On the flip side, there's little reason to think that New Orleans can slow an offensive juggernaut like the Warriors on the road. Golden State has scored 120, 123 and 121 points in its last three home games against the Pelicans. Take the over (10*). |
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05-07-18 | Raptors v. Cavs UNDER 214 | 93-128 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Cleveland at 8:35 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'under' in Game 3 of this series on Saturday night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Monday. The Raptors gave the Cavs their best shot on Saturday, or at least they didn't quit, battling back in the fourth quarter before falling on another Lebron James buzzer-beater. For much of Saturday's game the Raptors couldn't get anything going offensively. DeMar DeRozan was a non-factor and while he should play better on Monday night, I'm still not sure it's enough for the Raptors to hang around and inflict a great deal of damage offensively. The Cavs were on top of their game offensively in Game 3 and pretty much have been since the opening tip of this series. But again, I'm not sure they need to turn in an explosive offensively performance in this one. It's a win and move on situation and I look for the Cavs to put forth a clean effort. Take the under (10*). |
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05-07-18 | Mets v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | 7-6 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at Great American Ballpark on Monday night. The Mets are reeling right now having dropped six consecutive games at the hands of the Braves and Rockies, at home no less. I do look for them to bounce back here, but not sure I'm interested in backing them as a road favorite. P.J. Conlon will get his first career big league start for the Mets. He turned in a solid spring and I expect him to pitch well against the Reds, who certainly haven't been consistent at the dish this season. Meanwhile, I don't think we'll see veteran Homer Bailey get shown up in a matchup with a rookie making his first start. Bailey's numbers aren't great but he hasn't pitched all that poorly so far this season. Two starts back he needed just 50 pitches to get through five innings and last time took a bit of a step back needing 86 pitches in five rough innings against the Brewers. He's capable of stepping up here and might be catching the Mets at the right time. Take the under (10*). |
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05-06-18 | Warriors v. Pelicans UNDER 231 | 118-92 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and New Orleans at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. The 'over' has cashed in four of the Pelicans last five games overall but only two of those contests went 'over' the number we're working with this afternoon. I expect to see the Warriors do a much better job defending the perimeter after allowing the Pelicans to knock down 14-of-31 shots from beyond the arc on Friday. On the flip side, it's essentially another must-win situation for New Orleans and I'm confident we will see them keep the Warriors offense in check for stretches in this one, even if they're not able to stay within arm's length for 48 minutes. Take the under (10*). |
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05-06-18 | Giants v. Braves UNDER 9 | 4-3 | Win | 107 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Atlanta at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Sunday afternoon. This has been a high-scoring series so far with the Giants exploding for 20 runs in the first two games of the series. I look for things to settle down in Sunday's series finale as we see a matchup of two excellent pitching prospects. Andrew Suarez will take the ball for the Giants. After struggling in his first career start in early April he bounced back with a terrific performance against the Padres last time out, needing only 84 pitches to get through seven innings, allowing just four hits and two earned runs. Mike Soroka had a phenomenal debut for the Braves last week against the Mets, tossing six innings of one-run ball, needing just 80 pitches. He didn't walk a single batter in the outing. Take the under (10*). |
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