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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-09-21 | Lakers -3 v. Grizzlies | 95-108 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 17 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Lakers -3) I'll gladly take my chances with the Lakers as a slim 3-point road favorite against a Grizzlies team that is still playing without Ja Morant and will be in the second leg of a back-to-back. Not only are they on no rest, it's their third game in 4 nights. Lakers were off on Wednesday and their only game since last Friday is a home game against the Celtics on Tuesday. It will be just LA's 2nd game in 6 days. That's a huge rest edge this time of a year. This also feels like a rare time the public perception is down with this team. Lakers are still a big public play when they are bad, there's just not the hype we normally would see that would result in this line being a lot more. LA is not only rested, but they are also as healthy as they have been all year and have been playing better, winning 3 of their last 4. Offensively this team is rolling, shooting 50% or better in 5 straight. Give me the Lakers -3! |
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12-08-21 | Mavs v. Grizzlies -3.5 | 104-96 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Grizzlies -3.5) I'll take my chances with Memphis laying 3.5 at home against the Mavs. The Grizzlies aren't a better team long-term without Ja Morant, but there's no denying they have played some of their best basketball since he was lost to a knee injury. Memphis comes in having won and cover 5 in a row. Hard to not like the Grizzlies in this spot, as they couldn't be catching the Mavs at a better team. Dallas is in a major shooting slump, having scored fewer than 100 points in 3 straight and not shot better than 41% from the field in any of those games. Mavs will be playing on no rest after laying it all on the line in a 99-102 loss at Brooklyn last night. It will be the second back-to-back for Dallas in the last 6 days and they have to deal with the travel to Memphis after playing at home last night. Give me the Grizzlies -3.5! |
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12-08-21 | Bulls v. Cavs -2.5 | 92-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Cavs -2.5) I'll take my chances with Cleveland as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Bulls. Chicago was able to win and cover shorthanded at home against the Nuggets, but I don't think they are going to be able to replicate that on the road against what has arguably been the most underrated teams in the Cavs. The main guy the Bulls won't have is DeMar DeRozan, but they also are without 3 key reserves in Alex Caruso, Javonte Green and Coby White. They also continue to play without starter Patrick Williams. Cavs are 17-6 ATS on the season, which tells you just how little respect this team has been getting. Cleveland has covered 7 of their last 8 and are a perfect 2-0 ATS this season when they do get that respect and are listed as a favorite. Give me the Cavs -2.5! |
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12-07-21 | Knicks v. Spurs +2.5 | 121-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Spurs +2.5) I'll take my chances with the Spurs as a 2.5-point home dog against the Knicks. Public will be all over New York at this price, which definitely makes San Antonio that much more enticing. This just feels like a flat spot for New York in their schedule. They just played a bunch of big games and have to go play the Spurs, Pacers, and Raptors on a 3 game road trip before returning home to host the Bucks and Warriors in consecutive games. As for San Antonio, the Spurs have finally put together an extended stretch of strong play. SA has gone 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS over their last 5 games. I like them to find a way to win this game outright. Give me the Spurs +2.5! |
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12-06-21 | Nuggets +4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 97-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Big Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Nuggets +4.5) I like the value we are getting with the Nuggets as 4.5-point road dog against the Bulls tonight. This is a bad spot for Chicago coming off that big win at Brooklyn, where they outscored the Nets 32-25 in the 4th to win 111-107. Not only is this a big flat spot for the Bulls, they won't have one of their top bench players in Alex Caruso. He can really be the spark that gets this team through these bad scheduling spots. I also think it's a good time to buy low on Denver. Nuggets are just 2-7 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games, but have won 2 of 3 on their current 7-game road trip. Both times winning outright as dogs at Miami and most recently at the Knicks 113-99 as a 2.5-point dog. Give me Denver +4.5! |
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12-05-21 | Jazz v. Cavs +4.5 | 109-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Cavs +4.5) I'll take my chances with the Cavs as a 4.5-point home dog against the Jazz on Sunday. Cleveland continues to be way undervalued by the books. Cavs come into this one having won 4 straight and covered 6 in a row, improving their overall ATS record to 16-5 on the season. They have covered 7 of 10 at home. I not only think they cover here against Utah, but I like them to win the game outright. Jazz have looked great in their last 3 games, especially offensively, but all 3 of those games came at home against teams who are not exactly playing great defense. Cavs have been out to prove something against the better teams and are 10-2 ATS when facing a team with a winning record. Give me Cleveland +4.5! |
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12-04-21 | Clippers v. Kings | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Late Night ATS KNOCKOUT (Kings PK) I will gladly take my chances with the Kings as a pick'em at home against the Clippers. Not only do I love that this line is begging the public to take LA, but we are also getting the Clippers in a great fade spot. This is a huge letdown spot for Los Angeles after last night's thrilling 119-115 win over the Lakers. There's not a team the Clippers want to beat more than their cross-town rivals and it meant that much more with James playing for the Lakers. I expect to see a very flat Clippers team on no rest against a very hungry Kings team that is trying to get their season on track. Sacramento just won 124-115 at the Clippers on Wednesday. LA is 0-3 ATS this season in the second game of a back-to-back and 1-6 ATS when revenging a loss this season. Give me the Kings PK! |
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12-04-21 | Bulls +3.5 v. Nets | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Prime Time ATS SLAUGHTER (Bulls +3.5) Got to take a shot with the Bulls in this one. As good as Chicago has been, the betting public can't help themselves when they see Brooklyn as a short favorite, especially at home. I know we are just outside the parameters, but I think it speaks to the play. Nets are 3-5 ATS this season with a line of +3.5 to -3.5 and 0-3 ATS at home in this spot. What the public overlooks with Brooklyn in this spot is the fact that they are playing this game on no rest after a hard fought 110-105 win at home against the Timberwolves last night. Chicago was off Friday and are playing just their second game in the last 5 days. Also, while the Bulls are playing their second straight on the road, there's basically no travel involved with New York to Brooklyn. I just think with the poor bench that the Nets have to work with, it's going to be hard for them to match the intensity of this Bulls team, who feels like they got something to prove every time they face one of the perceived top teams in the league. Give me Chicago +3.5! |
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12-03-21 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Mavs | 107-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Smart Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Pelicans +7.5) We cashed an ugly play on the Pistons +13 last night, as we faded the Suns off that big win over the Warriors. It's not quite the same with this play, but I like the Pelicans catching 7.5 in this one. These two teams just played at New Orleans on Wednesday and the Mavs won that game in a blowout 139-107. Not only did they win big, they set a franchise record for shooting, connecting on 68.7% of their shot attempts. That's absurd good and any time a team has a record-setting performance like that, it's really hard to live up that hype in that next game out. I also think them playing the same team they just annihilated takes away some competitive fight, while it gives a little more motivation to the Pelicans with revenge on the table. Mavs are just 3-12 ATS the last 2 seasons priced as home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points and 7-20 ATS last 27 at home off a road win. Give me the Pelicans +7.5! |
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12-02-21 | Pistons +13 v. Suns | 103-114 | Win | 100 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money Vegas Insider (Pistons +13) This is a plug your nose play, as this Pistons team is awful, but I just have to bet against the Suns at this price in this spot. Phoenix is in a MASSIVE letdown spot. In their last two games they have went on the road and beat the Nets and then returned home to beat the Warriors. The most impressive in the win over Golden State is they did it with their star, Devin Booker, leaving the game early. Booker won't play in this game and I just think it's going to be really tough for the Suns to get up for this game against this Detroit team. As bad as the Pistons are, they have covered 4 of their last 5 when catching double-digits and I think they will be up here with that Suns win streak in play. Give me the Pistons +13! |
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12-01-21 | Cavs +6.5 v. Heat | 111-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Smart Money SHARP STAKE (Cavs +6.5) I'll take my chances with the Cavs as a 6.5-point road dog against the Heat. When Cleveland has been at or close to full strength, they have really played well. They have been one of the biggest moneymakers of the season going 14-5-2 ATS. They are 7-2-1 ATS in their 10 road games and just won 114-96 as a 6.5-point dog at Dallas. This is a hungry young team that wants to show they belong and I see them really being up for this game against Miami. As for the Heat, they all kinds of injury problems. Both Adebayo and Butler are questionable and it just feels like Miami is going thru a stretch where they are just going through the motions. They are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after starting out 12-4 ATS in their first 16 games. Give me the Nuggets +6.5! |
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12-01-21 | Nuggets v. Magic +7.5 | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR (Magic +7.5) I'm going to take the 7.5 with the Magic at home against the Nuggets. This just feels like too many for a Nuggets team that isn't playing great to be laying on the road. Denver did just beat the Heat 120-111 on the road, but Miami didn't have Butler or Herro. Prior to that win the Nuggets had gone 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS. Denver won't have Austin Rivers, have lost Michael Porter Jr and PJ Dozier for the season and are still waiting on Jamaal Murray to make his season debut. As bad as the Magic have been, they did show some fight in their last game, only losing by 5 at Philly and they are getting back one of their best players in Cole Anthony from injury. Give me the Magic +7.5! |
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11-30-21 | Warriors +2.5 v. Suns | 96-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) Situational ATS NO-Brainer (Warriors +2.5) This was going to be a big game when these two played no matter what. It was going to be the Warriors first crack at the defending Western Conference Champs. It's just been taken to another level with how well these two teams are playing. The Suns haven't lost since losing to the Kings on Oct. 27th. They have won 16 in a row. The Warriors are 14-1 over their last 15 games. I like this Suns team, but I like the Warriors a lot more. I think Golden State will be the team to beat come the playoffs, assuming Klay Thompson makes a healthy return. I'll take the points with what I feel is the better team, especially knowing we are going to get the Warriors' best. Other big key here is that it's not a horrible scheduling spot. Warriors did play at LA on Sunday, but they were home for the previous three and this is just their second game in four days. Give me the Warriors +2.5! |
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11-30-21 | Knicks +6.5 v. Nets | Top | 110-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Knicks +6.5) I'll take the 6.5 with the Knicks against the Nets. I just think the number is a little high. Brooklyn being such a public team plays a part. So does the fact that the Knicks are just 4-5 over their last 9 and the news with this team is centered around how Kemba Walker is all but done in the Big Apple. Thibs benched Walker in place of Alec Burks in their last game and they went on the road and beat the Hawks 97-90. Keep in mind Atlanta was arguably playing their best ball coming in, as they had won 7 straight. They also hadn't scored fewer than 110 in any game during that stretch. I don't know about taking him out of the rotation completely, unless they feel pretty good about trading him and they might, but I do think it makes the Knicks better in the short-term. Walker only averaging 11.7 ppg and 3.1 apg. Burks is also a big upgrade defensively and I think we saw that against the Hawks. The Nets are a good team, but they just seem to come up short in the big games against the better teams in this league. We just saw it in their last game at home against the Suns. Not saying they won't win, but I think this a game the entire way. Give me the Knicks +6.5! |
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11-29-21 | Blazers +8 v. Jazz | 107-129 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Blazers +8) I think this is just too good a price to pass up with the Blazers as a 8-point dog against the Jazz. While Portland does come in off two straight losses, where they failed to cover the spread, they weren't far off in either game and one of those losses was to the Warriors, who are winning and covering on everyone. Prior to these two games the Blazers had won and covered 4 in a row. The biggest thing for me in buying into this Portland team right now, is Damian Lillard is finally starting to play up to his potential after really playing poorly to start the year. I also think Utah's kind of going through the motions right now. The Jazz had failed to cover 3 straight prior to blowing out the Pelicans on Saturday, but keep in mind that was after they lost outright to New Orleans the night before as a 13-point favorite. In the two games prior they only won by 6 as a 12.5 pt favorite vs OKC and lost outright to Memphis as a 11-point favorite. Give me the Blazers +8! |
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11-28-21 | Bucks v. Pacers +2.5 | 118-100 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money ATS MASSACRE (Pacers +2.5) I'm going to take the Pacers as a 2.5-point home dog against the Bucks. The betting public will be all over Milwaukee at this price. I'll gladly fade the public and side with the books in this one. Yes, the Bucks have been playing better. They have won 6 straight, but they are just 6-10 ATS over their last 16 and are just going to be a team all season that is overvalued as the defending champs. It hasn't exactly been the toughest stretch for Milwaukee and they still aren't fully healthy with Lopez and DiVincenzo still out. Pacers are as healthy as they have been all season and are 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games with the only loss coming in OT. Indiana has also gone 6-3 SU and 6-3 ATS at home this year. Give me the Pacers +2.5! |
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11-27-21 | Suns v. Nets -1 | 113-107 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Nets -1) I will gladly take Brooklyn at basically a pick'em at home against the Suns. The Nets have been playing much more like the team we expected to see right from the start, as James Harden is finally playing up to his potential. After how bad this team lost at home to Golden State recently, I see the Nets being at their best for this matchup against a Suns team that hasn't lost since October. Not to say Phoenix isn't playing well, but the schedule has set up nicely for them during this win streak. There's also no question it has them overvalued right now by the oddsmakers. I also don't love the spot for the Suns, who are playing the final game of a 4 game road trip, they got the Warriors on deck and this will be their 5th game in the last 7 days. Give me the Nets -1!  |
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11-26-21 | Kings +7.5 v. Lakers | 141-137 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Late Night ATS ANNIHILATOR (Kings +7.5) I cashed on the Kings as a short home dog in Wednesday's 125-121 win over the Blazers and I will gladly take a shot on Sacramento as a 7.5-point dog against a Lakers team that is still trying to figure things out. Betting public loves to bet LeBron and the Lakers, especially off a win and cover. Books know this and will inflate the numbers. We see this in the fact that LA is a mere 19-35 ATS last 2 seasons off a win. Lakers are also just 15-27 ATS last 42 as a home favorite. Give me the Kings +7.5! |
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11-26-21 | Raptors v. Pacers -3.5 | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Pacers -3.5) I'll take my chances with the Pacers laying just 3.5-points at home against the Raptors. Toronto had a great comeback win on the road against Memphis on Wednesday, as they went from trailing 59-71 at the half to winning the game 126-113. It always takes a little more out of you playing from behind and I just don't trust this Raptors team to play well in this spot against what should be a hungry Pacers team that just lost in OT at home to Lakers. I really think Indiana is on the upswing right now and if it wasn't for LeBron going off, they would have beat LA. Even with that win at Memphis, the Raptors are just 3-7 SU and 3-7 ATS over their last 10 games and are in a bit of a flat/tired spot playing their 6th and final road game of a road trip that started with 4 games on the west coast. Give me the Pacers -3.5! |
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11-24-21 | Blazers v. Kings +3.5 | 121-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Situational Late Night MASSACRE (Kings +3.5) This is a bit of a plug your nose bet, but I'm going to take my chances with Sacramento catching points at home against the Blazers. I know the Kings have been bad of late, going just 1-8 SU and 1-8 ATS over their last 9 games. A stretch that recently resulted in head coach Luke Walton getting fired. While they lost their first game after Walton was fired 94-102 at home to a depleted 76ers team on Monday, they did show me something in that game. Sacramento held Philly to just 42.4% from the field and were up 9 in the 4th quarter. They just couldn't buy a basket in the final 10 minutes. I think we see this team come out inspired here and I really think it's a good spot to fade the Blazers. Not only is Portland playing the second of a back-to-back on the road, they got a showdown with Steph Curry and the Warriors on deck Friday. You also got to look at how different Portland has been at home compared to on the road, which I think is big here after the Blazers just played 4 straight at home. Portland is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS at home compared to just 1-7 SU and 1-7 ATS on the road this season. Give me the Kings +3.5! |
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11-24-21 | Raptors v. Grizzlies -3.5 | 126-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Grizzlies -3.5) I will lay the 3.5 at home with Memphis against the Raptors tonight. I think this Grizzlies team is on the upswing right now and are certainly going to be coming into this game with a lot of confidence after going on the road and beating the Jazz 119-118 as a 11-point dog in their last game. Memphis has won and covered 3 of their last 4 and are 6-3 SU and 6-3 ATS at home, compared to just 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS on the road. The other big key here is this is not a great spot for the Raptors. While Toronto is playing on 2 days of rest, this team has really been playing some bad basketball over the last few weeks. Raptors are just 2-7 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games. They are playing their 5th straight on the road (10th road game in their last 13 overall). They are not shooting the ball well and are really playing poorly on the defensive side (allowed 4 of their last 5 opponents to shoot 49% or better). Give me Grizzlies -3.5! |
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11-24-21 | Bulls -8.5 v. Rockets | Top | 113-118 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Bounce Back PLAY OF THE MONTH (Bulls -8.5) I love the Bulls to go on the road and easily cover the 8.5-point spread against an awful Rockets team. I think the biggest thing you got to make sure of when playing against Houston is that the team you are backing is motivated to play well, because this is definitely a team that is so bad that it can be really easy for teams to overlook. I'm confident the Bulls will be motivated, as Chicago is coming off easily their worst performance of the season in Monday's 77-109 loss at home to the Pacers. It was simply a massive letdown spot for the Bulls. Chicago had just played a 5-game west coast trip and in their first game back had a big revenge game against the Knicks. Not a surprise they didn't have it against Indiana in the second leg of a back-to-back. Houston hasn't won a game since beating OKC back on Oct. 22nd and are losing on average by 11.2 ppg. Give me the Bulls -8.5! |
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11-23-21 | Mavs +5.5 v. Clippers | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Mavs +5.5) I will take a shot here with the Mavs catching 5.5 on the road against the Clippers, as these two teams will face off in a rematch from Sunday in LA, which the Clippers won 97-91. LA only won that matchup by 6, despite them shooting 48% from the field and the Mavs only shooting 41%. Dallas also played that first game with their best player in Luka Doncic. While Doncic is listed as questionable, there figures to be a good chance he plays. He was close to coming back on Sunday and was seen taking part in scrimmages during Monday's practice. Even if the Mavs decide to sit him a 4th straight game, I still think Dallas is the play here. Mavs are 37-18-1 ATS last 56 on the road vs a team with a winning home record and 9-4 ATS last 13 off a SU loss. Clippers are just 3-7 ATS last 10 off a game where they covered the spread. Give me Dallas +5.5! |
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11-22-21 | Hornets v. Wizards -3.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Wizards -3.5) I love the Wizards as a slim 3.5-point home favorite against the Hornets. Washington is going to come into this game feeling really good about themselves after they pulled out a 103-100 win at home over the Heat in a game they trailed by 16 in the 3rd quarter and by 10 with just 4:42 left to play. I also think any kind of letdown from that big come from behind win is negated by the fact that Washington had a day off on Sunday to recoup and there being no travel between games. It's a much different story for the Hornets, who just had their 5-game SU and ATS win streak snapped in a 105-115 loss at Atlanta on Saturday. While Charlotte also had Sunday off, they had to travel from Atlanta to Washington and will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. You also have to look at how well the Wizards have played at home. Washington is 7-1 SU and 7-1 ATS at Capital One Arena this season. Hornets are just 13-24 ATS last two seasons as a road dog, where they are losing by an average of 8.6 ppg. Give me the Wizards -3.5! |
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11-21-21 | Knicks v. Bulls -5 | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Bulls -5) I'll take my chances with Chicago cashing as 5-point home favorite against the Knicks. Bulls are in a bit of a tricky spot playing their first game back after a length west coast trip, but I don't see them having any problem getting up for this game. These two teams don't like each other and the Bulls certainly haven't forgot about a 103-104 loss to New York at home back on Oct. 28th. The good news is the Knicks come into this game not playing well and are in a tough scheduling spot of their own. New York is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 and 3-8 ATS over their last 11. They were trailing in the 2nd half of last night's game at home against the Rockets, a team that has no business even being within single digits. Look for Chicago to make a statement at the United Center tonight. Give me the Bulls -5! |
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11-20-21 | Pelicans v. Pacers -7 | 94-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Pacers -7) I'll take my chances here with Indiana laying it on the Pelicans and covering here as a 7-point home favorite. Both of these teams are going to be playing in the second game of a back-to-back and coming off very different results. New Orleans knocked off the Clippers 94-81 as a 4.5-point dog, while the Pacers lost 118-121 as a 1-point road favorite at Charlotte. In a game where fatigue figures to be a big factor, playing at home will be a huge edge for Indiana. You also got to look at how bad the Pelicans have been away from home. New Orleans is just 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS away from home, where they are losing on average by 12.9 ppg. I also think this is a big bounce back spot for the Pacers, who have lost 3 straight. Each of the last two losses have come as favorites. Indiana is 6-1 ATS last 3 seasons after losing back-to-back games as a favorite. Pelicans are 0-8 ATS last 8 on the road against teams who are allowing 108 or fewer points/game. Give me the Pacers -7! |
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11-19-21 | Raptors v. Kings -3.5 | Top | 108-89 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Kings -3.5) I really like the price and the spot for the Kings, who are just 3.5-point home favorites against a struggling Raptors team. Sacramento is coming off a very disappointing 1-3 road trip against the Spurs, Thunder, Pistons and T-Wolves. Veteran big man Tristan Thompson voiced his frustration with the lack of intensity his team showed in this trip and I just think we are going to see an inspired effort from the Kings here at home. I know Sacramento is just 2-4 at home, but 3 of the 4 losses have come against 3 of the best teams in the West in the Warriors, Jazz and Suns and all 3 of those were by 8 or fewer. Toronto has not been playing well for a couple weeks now. The Raptors are 1-6 SU and 1-6 ATS over their last 7 games. They are shooting the ball poorly and not playing together on defense. They have allowed each of their last 3 opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and one of those teams was the Pistons. I just don't see them snapping out of this in what will be their 3rd road game on a west coast trip, especially in the 2nd of a back-to-back after a game last night in Utah. Give me the Kings -3.5! |
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11-18-21 | Clippers v. Grizzlies +1.5 | Top | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Vegas Insider MAX UNIT Top Play (Grizzlies +1.5) I really like Memphis as a small home dog against the Clippers tonight. Memphis has finally gotten healthy with the return of Dillon Brooks. He's that second scoring option this team has been lacking behind Morant. In the 3 games (2 starts) Brooks has made, he's averaged 19.7 ppg. With the Grizzlies coming into this game on a full two days of rest with no travel between games, I really like them to play well. On the flip side of this, I think this is a great sell high spot with Los Angeles. The Clippers come into this game having gone 8-1 SU and 6-2 ATS over their last 8 games. Thing is, LA has played their last 6 at home and the only two on the road during this stretch were against a bad Timberwolves team. Lot of people forget the Clippers were just 1-4 SU prior to this recent run. Give me the Grizzlies +1.5! |
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11-17-21 | Celtics v. Hawks -4 | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Blockbuster ATS NO-BRAINER (Hawks -4) I will gladly take my chances with the Hawks as a mere 4-point home favorite against the Celtics. Atlanta has really been a Jekyll and Hyde team this year when it comes to where they are playing. The Hawks are 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS on the road compared to 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS at home. Their only home loss came against the Jazz in the 2nd of a back-to-back after they played at Brooklyn against the Nets the night before. Boston has been hit or miss all year and are just not a team I can trust on the road against a quality team without one of their best players in Jaylen Brown. They also could be without talented big man Robert Williams, who is questionable to play after leaving their last game with a knee injury. Give me the Hawks -4! |
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11-17-21 | Wizards v. Hornets | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Situational ATS MASSACRE (Hornets PK) I will gladly take a shot with the Hornets as a pick'em at home against the Wizards. I just feel like now is the time to sell high on Washington. The Wizards have shocked everyone by jumping out to the best record in the Eastern Conference at 10-3 and with all the big media outlets starting to talk about them, I think we are seeing the books finally make an adjustment on them. Now I'm not saying the Wizards aren't greatly improved and a playoff contender in the East, but there is reason to be pessimistic with their strong start. While they do have some decent wins over the likes of the Bucks, Celtics, Hawks and Raptors, their only win against a team who currently has a winning record is a 3-point win at Cleveland, a game they had no business winning. Hornets come in having won and covered 3 straight and have been a much stronger team at home than on the road. Charlotte is definitely going to be up for this one and I think they could win this going away. Give me the Hornets PK! |
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11-17-21 | Pacers -6.5 v. Pistons | 89-97 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money ATS ANNIHILATOR (Pacers -6.5) This definitely falls into the category of a so-called "square play," but I don't care. This Pistons team is awful. Detroit is just 3-10 SU and have gone 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS in their 4 division games this year. In those 4 games they have been outscored by almost 20 ppg, losing on average by a final score of 84.2 to 101.5. Making matters even worse for Detroit is they just recently lost one of their best players in Kelly Olynyk. Not that he's great, but he's the only player with a PER (individual player rating) better than 16 at 19.06. I also love the spot for the Pacers, who you have to think are itching to get back on the floor after what took place in Monday's 84-92 loss at the Knicks. Indiana got outscored 23-10 in the 4th quarter of that game. They shockingly only made 2 FGs in the 4th quarter. Prior to that poor showing the Pacers had covered 6 of their previous 7 games. Give me Indiana -6.5! |
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11-15-21 | Suns -3.5 v. Wolves | 99-96 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Suns -3.5) I'll lay the 3.5 with the Suns on the road against the Timberwolves. Phoenix is one of the hottest teams in the league right now. Suns have won 8 in a row and covered each of their last 7. Each of their last 3 wins have come by double-digits. Minnesota is the exact opposite. Timberwolves are just 1-7 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games. Of the 7 losses during this stretch, 5 have come by double-digits. The big knock on the Suns in this game, is the fact that they will be playing the second game of a back-to-back on the road after yesterday's 115-89 win at Houston. With that being such an easy win and guys didn't have to play big minutes, I don't think it takes from their performance tonight. This is also far from an ideal spot for the Timberwolves, who could be dealing with some jet lag after playing 4 straight on the road, with the last 3 of those being played in California (Warriors, Lakers, Clippers). They got yesterday off, but will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the Suns -3.5! |
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11-14-21 | Nets v. Thunder +9.5 | 120-96 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Thunder +9.5) I'll gladly take my chances with OKC as a near double-digit home dog against the Nets. Brooklyn is a huge public team and are being asked to way a few too many in this spot. The Nets are playing the final game of a 6-game road trip that has seen them go up and down the east coast. I think they will have a hard time getting up for this game, as they have to be counting down the hours until they get to get on that plane back home. Even more so with a massive home game looming Tuesday against the Warriors. The other big thing here is the Thunder are playing their best basketball of the season coming into this game. OKC has won 4 straight. They have also covered each of their last 5 games and are 7-1 ATS in their last 8. They are playing exceptional defense during this stretch as they have held each of their last 6 opponents under 42% shooting from the field. Give me OKC +9.5! |
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11-13-21 | Celtics v. Cavs +2.5 | 89-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Cavs +2.5) I'll take my chances with the Cavs as a home dog against the Celtics on Saturday. Boston has been playing better of late, going 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games, but this is a really tough spot for the Celtics. Boston just put everything they had into last night's 122-113 OT win over the Bucks in a prime time game on ESPN. They had 4 different guys log over 40 minutes with all 5 starters playing 30+ minutes. I think it will be tough here for them to bounce back on no rest (also 3rd game in 4 days) in the first of two straight games in Cleveland against the Cavs (two play again in Cleveland on Monday). Cavs have been one of the biggest money makers early on. They are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games after destroying the Pistons 98-78 as a mere 5-point home favorite on Friday. Books just haven't made the proper adjustments on this team and until they do, they are going to be a team to keep backing. Give me the Cavs +2.5! |
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11-12-21 | Bulls v. Warriors -5.5 | 93-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT (Warriors -5.5) I really like this Bulls team and have made a bunch of money backing them early on this season. With that said, I hate this spot for Chicago. The Bulls will be making their first trip out west to face the hottest team in the league in the Warriors, who are 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS. Warriors could be without Draymond Green, who is questionable with a thigh bruise (think there's a decent chance he plays), but the Bulls will be without their big man in Nikola Vucevic due to Covid. I just don't think Chicago is going to be able to do enough offensively against a very good Golden State defense to keep this close enough to cover. Books just haven't adjusted enough on this Warriors team. Give me Golden State -5.5! |
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11-12-21 | Mavs v. Spurs +2.5 | 123-109 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Spurs +2.5) This Spurs team burned me in their last game with arguably their best showing of the season in a blowout win over the Kings. I think I might have been a little too low on this San Antonio team. I'll gladly take a shot here with the Spurs as a short home dog against an overrated Mavs team. Dallas has gotten way too much respect from the books to start the season and are just 3-7 ATS as a result. The other big thing here for me, is these two teams have already played twice and both times the Mavs were able to squeak out a win. Dallas won 104-99 at home and then 109-108 on the road. Spurs are going to want this game bad and I think they get the job done. Give me San Antonio +2.5! |
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11-12-21 | Kings -4 v. Thunder | Top | 103-105 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Kings -4) We took the Kings as a slim 1-point dog at the Spurs on Wednesday and got absolutely burned with San Antonio cruising to a 136-117 win. Not only did Sacramento not play with the effort needed to win on the road, the Spurs shot lights out in that game. Watching that game, I had a pretty good feeling I was going to be right back on the Kings against the Thunder tonight and I was actually expecting to lay a couple more than we are being asked to. This is a Kings team I have made some decent money on early and I fully expect them to bounce back with a big effort and easy cover tonight. Give me Sacramento -4! |
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11-11-21 | Raptors +3 v. 76ers | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Raptors +3) I think we are getting a good price here on the Raptors as a slim road dog against a depleted 76ers team. The value with Toronto stems from the fact that they will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back, while Philly had yesterday off. Raptors also haven't looked good of late, losing their last 3 games, including an ugly 88-104 setback at Boston last night. As tough as it is to play on no rest, I see this as a much worse spot for the 76ers, who we know are going to be without Joel Embiid and Matisse Thybulle. They could also be missing Tobias Harris and Seth Curry. Not to mention they still are playing without Ben Simmons. Siakam will be out for Toronto to rest after just recently coming back from injury. I think that's not necessarily a bad thing. Siakam is still shaking off some rust and it felt like his return kind of threw off the chemistry this team had going, as they had gone 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their previous 5 before the 3-game skid. Give me the Raptors +3! |
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11-10-21 | Kings +1 v. Spurs | 117-136 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Kings +1) Sacramento should not be a dog in this game. The Kings have one of the more misleading records right now. They are just 5-6, but this is more a result of the brutal schedule they were dealt to start the year. I actually think Sacramento is one of the more improved teams. The same can't be said for the Spurs. San Antonio is just 3-7 and there's nothing fluky about their record. The Spurs just aren't a very good team. Two of their three wins have come against arguably the worst team in the league in the Magic and the other was against a depleted Bucks team on the road. Prior to last night's win against a depleted 76ers team, Milwaukee had lost 5 of 6. Give me the Kings +1! |
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11-10-21 | Mavs v. Bulls -3.5 | 107-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Bulls -3.5) I will gladly take my chances with Chicago as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against the Mavs. I just think this is a really good price to back the Bulls at home. Chicago put those two losses to the 76ers behind them with a 118-95 win over the Nets on Monday. They did so in fashion, outscoring Brooklyn 42-17 in the 4th quarter. The Bulls are now 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS. This is without question one of the most improved teams in the league and while the betting public is starting to take notice, I think the books have been a little slow to inflate the numbers on them, which is why they continue to show value. As for the Mavs, I just haven't been all that impressed. They too are off to a 7-3 SU start, but are just 3-6-1 ATS. Their largest margin of victory all season is just 10 points and that was against the Rockets at home. I really like Lonzo Ball being able to make it difficult for Doncic and if Luka is great, I have a hard time seeing Dallas keeping this close. Give me the Bulls -3.5! |
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11-09-21 | Blazers v. Clippers -3 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Clippers -3) I will lay the 3-points at home with the Clippers, as they host the Blazers in the second game of Tuesday's TNT double-header. I just don't get why this Portland team is getting so much respect on the road. The Blazers are 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS away from home this season and are getting outscored on average 115.2 to 101.5 on the road. The Clippers got off to an ugly start, but seem to have figured it out. LA has won 4 straight to move to 5-4 (first time this year over .500). While we know this team will take it to another level once Kawhi comes back from injury, they are the more than good enough to cover this short number at home against a Blazers team that is not getting the production they need out of their star player in Damian Lillard. After ranking 3rd in the league last year at 28.8 ppg, Lillard is 35th at a mere 18.5 ppg. Give me the Clippers -3! |
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11-08-21 | Hawks +3.5 v. Warriors | 113-127 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Big Money Fade UPSET SHOCKER (Hawks +3.5) A lot of people are going to look at this line and wonder how are the Warriors such a small home favorite against a Hawks team that has lost 5 of 6 and failed to cover 6 of their last 7. The books just don't set bad lines on purpose and with how much the public is getting back involved with the Warriors after their 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS start, I got roll the dice with Atlanta in this one. One thing that is worth pointing out with the Warriors 8-1 start, is they haven't exactly played the toughest schedule. While they got wins over the Lakers and Clippers, both were by 7 or fewer and neither of those teams have looked good early. Their other 6 wins are against the Kings, Thunder (twice), Hornets, Pelicans and Rockets. This is also not a great scheduling spot for Golden State with them playing the second of a back-to-back and 3rd in 4 nights. I could definitely see the Hawks being the more motivated team, as we should get a max effort here from Atlanta. Give me the Hawks +3.5! |
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11-08-21 | Nets v. Bulls -1 | Top | 95-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Bulls -1) I really like the Bulls as a slim 1-point home favorite against the Nets. Brooklyn is a massive public team with Durant and Harden, but while they are 7-3 SU they are just 5-5 ATS. They come in having won 5 straight, but those wins have come against the Pacers, Pistons (twice), Hawks and Raptors with 3 of the 5 at home. The other big thing here is rest. Brooklyn will be on no rest after yesterday's game at Toronto. While Brooklyn won the game relatively comfortably 116-103, they weren't able to spread out the minutes like you would like in the first of a back-to-back. They have 4 of their 5 starters log 32+ minutes. This is also the Nets 3rd road game in 4 nights. Bulls are on just 1 day of rest, but this will be just their second game in the last 5 days and they have had zero travel during this time. Chicago should come out here extremely motivated, not just to make a statement against one of the better teams, but to snap their 2-game skid (coming off two close losses in a home-and-home vs the 76ers). Give me the Bulls -1! |
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11-07-21 | Pacers v. Kings -1.5 | 94-91 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Kings -1.5) I will gladly take my chances here with Sacramento as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Pacers. I've really been impressed with this Kings team to start the season. Sacramento is 5-4, but their 4 losses have come against playoff caliber teams. The books have been slow to adjust on the Kings and those backing them have made a killing of late. Sacramento has covered 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall. This just doesn't feel like the sell high spot with this line. Indiana is another team I like, but this is not an ideal spot for the Pacers playing the 2nd game of a 4-game west coast trip. Indiana's defense just isn't good enough to win away from home against quality teams, as they are giving up 118.2 ppg on 47% shooting from the field and 42% shooting from deep away from home. Give me the Kings -1.5! |
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11-06-21 | Jazz +2.5 v. Heat | 115-118 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Jazz +2.5) I really like the Jazz here in this spot. Miami has been one of the most impressive teams in the league and have quickly becoming a public betting favorite. The biggest thing here is the health of Miami point guard Kyle Lowry. The Heat are 6-2 and both losses have come with Lowry not playing the entire game. Lowry missed Miami's 91-102 loss at Indiana and he went out in the 3rd quarter of Thursday's 78-95 loss to the Celtics. The Heat just really struggle to get into any flow offensively without him on the floor. I know Utah might be without one of their best players as well, as Donovan Mitchell is questionable after missing Thursday's 116-98 win over the Hawks. The thing is, I think there's a much better chance that Mitchell plays, as it felt more precautionary than anything with Lowry not playing against Atlanta. Keep in mind, unlike Lowry, Mitchell came back and finished the game against the Kings after injuring his ankle in the 1st half. Even if he doesn't play, I still think Utah is the right side against a Heat without Lowry. Play the Jazz +2.5! |
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11-05-21 | Hornets v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 110-140 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Kings -1.5) I love the Kings as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Hornets on Friday. I think this Sacramento team is flying way under the radar right now. Kings are just 4-4, but those 4 losses have come against the Warriors and Jazz at home and the Mavs and Jazz on the road. They have covered 4 of their last 5 including a 112-99 win over New Orleans last time out as a mere 5-point favorite. Charlotte is a team that gets a lot of love because they can score a lot of points, but I'm not a big believer in this team and I certainly don't like the spot for the Hornets. Charlotte just started a 5-game road trip across the country on Wednesday at Golden State and after this game they go to LA for back-to-back games at the Staples Center vs the Clippers and Lakers on Sunday/Monday. Charlotte also comes in not shooting the ball well. They have shot 41% or worse from the field in 3 of their last 4 games. Give me the Kings -1.5! |
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11-05-21 | Cavs +5.5 v. Raptors | 102-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Cavs +5.5) I'll take my chances with Cleveland as a 5.5-point road dog against the Raptors. Even though the Cavs have been one of the biggest surprises early, going 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS, it's going to take a lot more before the betting public gets on board with this team, so to me they are still a great buy low candidate. As for the Raptors, I think this is a good sell high spot on them. Toronto is a team a lot of people were high on coming into the season and they look like they are living up to that hype going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5. I still have a lot of concerns with this team and this is not a great spot coming off a 3-game road trip and a massive lookahead with a home game against the Nets on deck Sunday. I not only think the Cavs can keep it within the number, but I give them a good shot here to win outright. Give me Cleveland +5.5! |
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11-04-21 | Jazz -1.5 v. Hawks | Top | 116-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Jazz -1.5) I will gladly lay a mere 1.5-points on the road with Utah against an underwhelming Hawks team. Atlanta got off to a decent start, going 3-1 in their first 4 games, but two of those wins were against the Pistons and Hornets. The other was against a Mavs team that has also not looked good early on. Since that start they have lost 3 of 4, including a 108-117 setback last night at Brooklyn. I just think even with the slow start, Atlanta is a team that is still being a bit overvalued based on last year's deep playoff run that saw them get to the Eastern Conference Finals. On the flip side, I've liked what I've seen out of Utah to start the season. I did play against them as a 9-point favorite at home against the Kings last time out, but that was more of how underrated I think Sacramento is right now. I just don't think 1.5 is near enough for Atlanta. Utah's only loss on the season is a 99-107 loss at Chicago, which was a bit of a flat spot, being it was the first of a back-to-back with the defending champs on deck. Give me the Jazz -1.5! |
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11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons +6 | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) Public Money ATS MASACRE (Pistons +6) A lot of people are going to look at this line and wonder how in the heck are the 76ers only a 6-point favorite against a Pistons team that is 1-6 and struggling to keep games close. They just lost 91-117 at Brooklyn and 89-117 at home to the Bucks in their last two games. We see a lot of crazy things in the NBA this early in the season and more times than not when a line stinks this bad, I'm going to side with the books and take the ugly dog. There is reason to like the Pistons. Philly is far from full strength right now. They are still waiting on Ben Simmons to figure things out and are also without two other starters in Tobias Harris and Danny Green. 76ers are also playing on the road with no rest after really playing hard in last nights big win over the Bulls. I think we see Philly lay a big egg here and it wouldn't shock me if Detroit won outright. Give me the Pistons +6! |
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11-03-21 | Pelicans v. Kings -5 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT (Kings -5) I got no problem laying a mere 5-points at home with the Kings. We cashed on Sacramento as a 9-point dog in a 113-119 loss at Utah last night. I said it in my write up for that game that I thought this Kings team was way undervalued because of their schedule. Kings have played 5 of their first 7 on the road, with their only two at home coming against the Jazz and Grizzlies. Got to believe they will be motivated here for that first home win of the season. This is also an interesting scheduling spot. Both teams are playing on no rest (Pelicans played at Phoenix last night). New Orleans has lost both of their previous games on no rest. In one they scored just 89 points at Minnesota and the other they gave up 123 to the Knicks at home. I just think bad teams are more likely to struggle in a bad scheduling spot and this just doesn't feel like near enough points for the gap in talent. Give me the Kings -5! |
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11-03-21 | Nuggets +1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 106-108 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH (Nuggets +1) I love the Nuggets at basically a pick'em on the road against the Grizzlies. These two teams just played on Monday in Memphis, creating a true revenge spot with the same opponent in the same venue. Memphis won that game 106-97 in a great buy low spot on the Grizzlies after an ugly 103-129 home loss to the Heat. It was also a bad spot for Denver, playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and second straight on the road. Denver should be a bit refreshed being able to stay in Memphis over their off day on Tuesday. They should also be highly motivated to beat a team they just lost to, especially with how they played offensively, scoring just 97 points. Hard to see this Memphis defense holding the Nuggets offense in check in back-to-back games. Defense is not a strength of this team. The Grizzlies are giving up 114.1 ppg, allowing 47.6% shooting and are dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. Give me the Nuggets +1! |
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11-03-21 | Bulls +2 v. 76ers | 98-103 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Bulls +2) I'll take my chances with the Bulls as a slim 2-point dog on the road against the 76ers. Chicago was expected to be much improved this season, but no one thought they were going to be this good and I think it's taken some time for the market to catch up. Bulls are 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS. As for the 76ers, I think the market has been inflated on them, even though they are 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS to start the year. Philly has been playing behind the 8-ball with Ben Simmons not playing and now they got two big injuries to add their problem. Danny Green is out with a hamstring injury and Tobias Harris is out with Covid. Harris is the 76ers second leading scorer at 19.8 ppg (also averages 9 rpg and 4.2 apg), while Green is one of their top 3-point shooters. Give me the Bulls +2! |
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11-03-21 | Knicks v. Pacers -1 | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Pacers -1) I really like the value with the Pacers as a slim 1-point home favorite against the Knicks. New York's gotten off to a fine start and I've made some money on this team early, but I think they are being way overvalued here on the road against a Pacers team that is finally starting to get healthy. Indiana recently got back one of their best players in Caris LeVert, but while he was returning they had to deal with the loss of Malcolm Brogdon, who was really carrying this team early. Brogdon is expected to return from his hamstring injury, making the Pacers that much better and deeper. I just think it's the time to buy low on Indiana right now. Give me the Pacers -1! |
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11-02-21 | Kings +9 v. Jazz | 113-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Kings +9) I'm like getting 9-points with the Kings on the road against the Jazz. This just feels like a few too many for Utah to be laying. While Sacramento is off to a mere 3-3 start this season, this looks like a much better version of the Kings than what we saw a year ago. The biggest thing that gets overlooked with the Kings .500 start, is the schedule that they have had to endure. They have played road games against the Blazers, Suns, Pelicans and Mavs, while their only two home games have come against these Jazz and the Warriors. Utah did win the first meeting 110-101, which is the same margin as the number here, but keep in mind that the Kings had a 52-46 lead at the half and were only down 1 going into the 4th. You might be thinking that the Jazz should win by more with the game on their home court this time, but I just think there's also the same argument you could make for the Kings being motivated for revenge. I also don't love the spot here for the Jazz. Utah just finished up a 3-game midwest trip on Sunday and have to go right back on the road for another 3-game trip after this one is over. Give me the Kings +9! |
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11-01-21 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies -2 | 97-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Grizzlies -2) I really like Memphis as a slim 2-point home favorite against the Nuggets. We played against the Nuggets as a small road dog against the Twolves on Saturday and took a tough loss in a 93-91 Denver win. Minnesota did us no favors, shooting just 38.9% from the field and turning it over 20 times. Even though it ended up being the wrong side, I think it was the right handicap, playing against the Nuggets in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. While Denver did have Sunday off, this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights. We are also getting the exact same price betting against the Nuggets with a much better team in the Grizzlies. It just feels like to me we are getting a big overreaction on Memphis after that ugly 103-129 loss at home to the Heat on Saturday. Should get a really big effort here from the Grizzlies against a tired Nuggets team. Give me Memphis -2! |
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10-30-21 | Nuggets v. Wolves -2 | 93-91 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Late Night VEGAS INSIDER (Wolves -2) I will lay the short number with Minnesota at home against the Nuggets. I not only think this Timberwolves team is a lot better than people realize, but there's a pretty big scheduling advantage here for Minnesota. The Timberwolves will be playing this game on a full 2 days of rest. The Nuggets on the other hand will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back after last night's showdown with the Mavs. While it was a blowout, that was a primetime game on ESPN, so there's likely to be some emotional letdown here. You also can't overreact to that outcome with how bad the Mavs were. Dallas played no defense and shot 29.5% from the field. It's also not like we have seen Denver fail to bring it. Just a few games back they lost 87-99 at home to the Cavs as a 9.5-point favorite. Not only do the Timberwolves have a potent 1-2-3 scoring attack with Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and D'Angelo Russell, but are playing much better on the defensive side of the ball. Minnesota ranks 3rd in the league right now in defensive efficiency (last year they finished T-25th). Give me the Timberwolves -2!  |
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10-30-21 | Heat v. Grizzlies -2 | 129-103 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Smart Money ATS ANNIHILATOR (Grizzlies -2) Great price here with Memphis as a slim 2-point home favorite against the Heat. Even though the Grizzlies are off an impressive 104-101 win at Golden State as a 6-point dog, I think the public has really got on board with this Miami team and a lot of people watched them dismantle the Hornets 114-99 last night in the first game of the ESPN double-header. I just think it's created a great sell high spot on the Heat, playing on the road against a really good team and doing so on no rest. It's also worth pointing out that Miami has not shot the ball anywhere close to as good on the road as they have at home. Heat are scoring 119.3 ppg at home compared to 98.5 ppg on the road. They have shot close to 50% at home and 39.0% on the road. Another thing to note with Memphis and them being a little undervalued even though they are 3-2, is they have played 4 of their 5 games to start to the season on the road. Give me the Grizzlies -2! |
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10-30-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -3 | 94-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (76ers -3) I really love the value here with Philly as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Hawks. The 76ers are definitely down a notch missing a player of Ben Simmons caliber, but there's still more than enough talent for this to be a top tier team in the Eastern Conference without them. They just aren't a title contender without him on the floor. With that said, I just think they should be a bigger favorite here at home. You also have to take into consideration that the Hawks aren't exactly living up to expectations to start the season. It just feels like to me that they are a bit overvalued after making the Eastern Conference Finals last year. A good note to go with that is the Hawks beat the 76ers in a grueling 7-game series to get to the Eastern Conference Finals, so you got to think this is one Philly will definitely be up for. I also think you have to really look at how the Hawks have played on the road. They are 1-2 away from home. They lost 95-101 at Cleveland as a 8-point favorite, 111-122 as a 3-point favorite at Washington and barely beat the Pelicans 102-99 as a 5-point favorite. This will also be Atlanta's 3rd road game in 4 nights, which I don't think people are factoring in near enough. Give me the Hawks -3! |
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10-29-21 | Mavs +2 v. Nuggets | Top | 75-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Friday Night MAX UNIT Top Play (Mavs +2) I really like Dallas as a slim 2-point road dog against the Nuggets on Friday. The big question mark here for a lot of people looking at this game is the health of Nikola Jokic for Denver. He's listed as questionable after suffering a knee injury in their last game vs the Jazz. He only played 15 minutes before getting hurt and did not return. There was no structural damage, which is why he's questionable, but he didn't practice Thursday and it would seem foolish for the Nuggets to put him out there for this game. I know the Nuggets didn't fold against a good Utah team after Jokic went down (lost 110-122), but I just don't think they got the talent to really be a good team without him on the floor, especially with Jamal Murray still sidelined. Mavs have won 3 straight since that ugly showing in their opener, where they lost 87-113 at Atlanta. Even if Porzingis doesn't play, I still think Dallas has the two best players in this game with Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson. Wouldn't be shocked if this line doesn't flip after it's official that Jokic is out. Give me the Mavs +2! |
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10-29-21 | Kings -2 v. Pelicans | 113-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Kings -2) It feels like I could be walking into a trap here, but I just can't pass up a play on Sacramento as a slim 2-point road favorite against the Pelicans, who are a shell of themselves to start the year with Zion Williamson sidelined. New Orleans is just 1-4 with their only win coming in the second leg of back-to-back games vs the Twolves, where Minnesota won the first meeting. The Kings are just 2-2, but that's actually a pretty impressive record when you consider their schedule has been @ POR, vs UTAH, vs GS and @ PHO. They won both of those games on the road vs the Blazers and Suns. I also don't think people realize how good the Kings' Harrison Barnes has been playing. He's averaging a double-double with 26.8 ppg and 10.0 rpg. Give me the Kings -2! |
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10-28-21 | Knicks v. Bulls -1 | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Knicks/Bulls MAX UNIT Top Play (Bulls -1) I love the Bulls at basically a pick'em at home against the Knicks. We knew Chicago was going to be an improved team with the moves they made in the offseason to bring in the likes of Lonzo Ball, DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso to pair with the likes of Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. Despite not playing anywhere close to their potential offensively, the Bulls have managed to start out the season 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS. A big reason for that is their defense. Chicago is 2nd in the league behind only the Heat in team defensive efficiency. They are giving up just 97.5 ppg, while holding teams to 43.7% shooting from the field and 33.0% from behind the 3-point line. They are also only giving up an average of 16 free throws a game, so teams are having to work for everything they get. Now they have faced a pretty favorable schedule. Their 4 wins have come against the Pistons (2x), Pelicans and Raptors. With that said, I see them extremely motivated here to show they are for real against a good Knicks team and there's no love between the Chicago and New York fan base. The energy inside the United Center tonight I believe is going to feel a lot like a playoff game. I think the books were right when they opened this game at Chicago -3. Give me the Bulls -1!  |
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10-27-21 | Kings +8 v. Suns | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Wednesday Night MAX UNIT Top Play (Kings +8) I love the value we are getting with the Kings as a 8-point road dog against the Suns. I just think Phoenix is being way overvalued by the books to start the season, which all stems from last year's run to the NBA Finals. They are just 1-2 to start the year with a 12-point home loss to the Nuggets as a 6-point favorite and a 29-point loss as a 2.5-point dog at Portland. They did beat the Lakers 115-105 on the road, but LA has not looked great early on as they try to figure out how to make it all work with Westbrook. Kings are also 1-2, which might not seem great, but most probably had them 0-3 to start the year. Sacramento had to go on the road to play the Blazers in their opener before hosting the Jazz and Warriors. They beat Portland and while they lost to Utah and Golden State, they were competitive in both games. I just think this is a much closer matchup than the number would suggest. I think we see that in the fact that the Kings rate higher in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Give me the Kings +8! |
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10-27-21 | Heat +4.5 v. Nets | 106-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Heat +4.5) I will gladly take my chances with Miami a 4.5-point road dog against the Nets. I just have not been impressed with what I've seen out of Brooklyn to start the year. It's all Durant. Harden isn't giving them anything close to what they need and they aren't as deep as they were a season ago. It shows in the fact that you got two former MVPs in your starting lineup and you are shooting just 44.2% as a team from the field. As for Miami, I think everyone realises the Heat are a top tier team, I just don't think they realize how good they are. The only game they lost was a road game at the Pacers where they didn't have Kyle Lowry. It was also a big flat spot for the Heat after they laid it all on the line in a 137-95 win over the Bucks two days earlier. I just think the Heat are playing the better basketball and have a lot more to prove in this one. Give me Miami +4.5! |
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10-26-21 | 76ers v. Knicks -1.5 | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - 76ers/Knicks Atlantic Division PLAY OF THE MONTH (Knicks -1.5) I love the value we are getting with the Knicks as a slim 1.5-point home favorite against the 76ers. This to me feels like what the line should be if Philly was at full strength with Ben Simmons on the floor. I know that the 76ers are 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS to start the season without Simmons, but their two wins have come against the Pelicans and Thunder, who are a combined 1-6. The only legit team they played is the Nets and they lost at home 109-114. The Knicks are a team that I think are flying a little bit under the radar. No one seems to want to give Thibs and this team much respect for what they did a year ago, where they finished with the 4th best record in the east at 41-31. Knicks opened the season with that crazy 138-134 2OT win at home against Boston. A game they should have won in regulation if not for a minor collapse in the last few minutes. They went out 2 days later and crushed the Magic 121-9, covering as a 8-point favorite. They did lose outright as a 12-point favorite at home to Orlando in their next game, but that was the definition of a flat spot for New York. I just think with Julius Randle playing like he did last year and the two big additions of Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier, the Knicks are an even stronger team this season. Give me the Knicks -1.5! |
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10-25-21 | Wizards +7 v. Nets | Top | 90-104 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Wizards +7) I love the value we are getting with Washington as a 7-point dog against the Nets. I've been on Washington in each of their first two games. They came thru in their opener and had a brutal beat in the second game...they were -2.5, led by 10 going to the 4th quarter, were up 4 in OT and Pacers hit a 3 a the buzzer to lose by 1. Keep in mind they played that game against Indiana without their best player in Bradley Beal. It just goes to speak to the depth this Wizards team has added. Dinwiddie, who they added from Brooklyn, had a team-high 34 and Kuzma put in 26. The Nets just haven't looked like the team we thought. They got blitzed in the opener at Milwaukee, were a bit lucky to beat the 76ers on the road and lost 95-111 at home to the Hornets yesterday. A game they led 58-50 at the half. Durant is playing great, but he's getting no help. James Harden has not played up to par, as he's only averaging 18.3 ppg on 38.8% shooting. Give me the Wizards +7! |
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10-23-21 | Heat -4 v. Pacers | 91-102 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Heat -4) We had a really bad beat last night on the Wizards -2.5, as they ended up beating the Pacers 135-134 in OT. It was just brutal. Washington had a 10-point lead going into the 4th quarter and proceeded to score just 17 to send the game to OT, where the Pacers hit a 3 at the buzzer down 4. I just really question how much Indiana has left in the tank after playing that OT game against the Wizards. Keep in mind the Pacers played in a uptempo affair on Wednesday against Charlotte (lost 122-123). This will be their 3rd game in 4 nights on no rest. Miami on the other hand has only played 1 game this season, which was Thursday's 137-95 blowout win over the Bucks at home. Heat are going to be the much more rested team in this game and on top of that are hands down the better team in this matchup. Miami's got another day off tomorrow before hosting an awful Orlando team on Monday, so there's no reason for them to not show up with a great effort here. Give me the Heat -4! |
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10-22-21 | Nets -1 v. 76ers | Top | 114-109 | Win | 100 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
50* (NBA) Friday Night MAX UNIT Top Play (Nets -1) I was dead wrong with Brooklyn in Tuesday's season opener at Milwaukee. I thought the Bucks would come out fat and happy and instead they played like they were the team with something to prove. Unfortunately these great situation spots can't come through every time. The Nets didn't help matters by not playing up to their potential. They got outscored 37-25 in the 1st quarter and 30-19 in the 4th quarter. I know they are without Kyrie, but the duo of Harden and Durant is still lethal. I just don't see this team starting the season 0-2. The 76ers are an interesting team, as they have all that off the court drama going on with Ben Simmons. Philly is still a playoff team without Simmons if Embiid is healthy, but not a team you think can do much in the postseason. They won their season opener 117-97 against a Pelicans team that was without Zion. That was the good news for the 76ers. One game into the season and Joel Embiid is already showing up on the injury report with a sore knee. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he doesn't play in this game. Philly hasn't hesitated in years past resting him when he's not at full strength and it would makes sense to do it this early in the year. With or without Embiid on the floor in this game, I will go down swinging with Brooklyn at this price. Give me the Nets -1! |
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10-22-21 | Pacers v. Wizards -2.5 | 134-135 | Loss | -104 | 20 h 44 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Wizards -2.5) I think a lot of people were surprised with how good the Wizards looked in Wednesday's season opener. They laid it on a Raptors team that a lot of people came into the season thinking could be a surprise in the east. Washington won 98-83, outscoring Toronto 57-37 in the 1st half. I was not one of those people that were surprised. I gave out a free pick on the Wizards Wednesday. With triple-double machines Russell Westbrook getting traded to the Lakers, it just felt like everyone wrote this team off. It's not as bad of a roster as you think. They still have a top tier player in Bradley Beal who can shoulder the offense. The only other starter back with Beal is big man Daniel Gafford, who they got in a trade last year. They signed Spencer Dinwiddie away from the Nets, who only played 3 games last year after posting career highs of 20.6 ppg and 6.8 apg the season before. The other two starters are guys they got in the Westbrook trade in Kyle Kuzma and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (also got a great reserve in Montrezl Harrell). The Pacers lost 122-123 on the road against the Hornets in an absolutely crazy game. Indiana's couldn't miss in the 1st half of that game and jumped out to a 75-59 lead at the half. They then managed to score just 13 points in the 3rd quarter and Charlotte all the sudden led 92-88 going into the 4th. Hornets got the lead up to 10, before the Pacers stormed back to take the lead. I just wonder if that game didn't take a lot of a depleted Pacers roster that is starting the season down two starters in Caris LeVert and T.J. Warren. Keep in mind they only used an 8-man rotation against Charlotte. I also just wonder if an awful Hornets defense didn't make this Pacers team look a little better than it actually is right now. Give me the Wizards -2.5! |
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10-21-21 | Mavs v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 87-113 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
50* (NBA) Vegas Insider MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks -2.5) I love the value here with the Hawks as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Mavericks. I'm a little shocked Atlanta isn't getting a little more love here. This is a team that appeared to take a huge step forward last season, as they made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals. That should have only lit a fire under this Hawks team to work that much harder to take that elusive next step and get to a NBA Finals. Regardless if they got a real shot at that or not, they believe they do. So much so that they brought basically everyone back from that team. You could same the same thing about the Mavs bringing a lot of their guys back, but there is a big difference with this Dallas team. Head coach Rick Carlisle decided to not come back (now with the Pacers) and they replaced him with Jason Kidd. I loved Kidd as a player, but he's been a failure at this head coaching thing. I know it might not seem like a NBA coach does a lot, but I think losing Carlisle is a big deal for this young team. Give me the Hawks -2.5 at home! |
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10-20-21 | Nuggets +6 v. Suns | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Situational Late Night BAILOUT B-L-O-W-O-U-T (Nuggets +6) Big time value here with the Nuggets as a 6-point dog in Wednesday's season opener. Denver will be on the road against the Suns, who I think are going to be a team the books way overvalue early on. Everyone wants to bet Phoenix after last year's run to the NBA Finals, especially with the Suns bringing back everyone from that team and adding a guy like Landry Shamet. This should be one of the better teams in the West, but they should not be this big of a favorite against an equally talented Nuggets team. Denver has finished in the Top 3 of the Western Conference standings each of the last 3 years. They got too got everyone back, including the reigning MVP in Nikola Jokic. If I was making a line on these two teams on a neutral court, I would have them at a pick'em. While home court is not equal in the NBA, the standard is around 3 points. This line is double that. Give me the Nuggets +6! |
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10-20-21 | Pacers v. Hornets -2 | Top | 122-123 | Loss | -104 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Vegas Insider MAX UNIT Top Play (Hornets -2) I absolutely love the Hornets as a mere 2-point home favorite in Wednesday's season opener at home against the Pacers. I know a lot of people are questioning Charlotte having a 38.5 game win total after only winning 33 games a year ago (keep in mind they did play 10 fewer games). I definitely don't think there will be many running to place a bet on the OVER 38.5. That tells me the books see a lot in this team and are more than happy to take your UNDER bet. I'll side with the wiseguys that this Charlotte team is going to be improved. The do got a pretty good starting 5 with LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, Miles Bridgers and Mason Plumlee/P.J. Washington. Ball had a sensational rookie year, averaging 15.7 ppg, 6.1 apg and 5.9 rpg. He only played in 51 games and started just 31, which might be a big part of the books stake on this team. If he takes another step in year two, this team will be in the playoff mix. The Pacers are a team that I got my concerns with. Indiana was just as bad as Charlotte last year. They went 34-38. While there starting five of Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert, T.J. Warren, Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner, they will be down two of them. LeVert and Warren are both ruled out for this game. They could also be without one of their top reserves in Jeremy Lamb. I just think Indiana is getting way too much respect given the injuries they are dealing with to start the season. Give me the Hornets -2! |
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10-19-21 | Nets +1 v. Bucks | Top | 104-127 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Opening Night PLAY OF THE YEAR (Nets +1) I love Brooklyn at basically a pick'em tonight, as they go on the road to take on the defending champs to open their season. This is more of a party for the Bucks, as tonight is all about the ring ceremony for them. For Brooklyn, it's the first step to redemption. If this team had been healthy last year, I'm confident they would have been the team getting their championship rings on opening night. Add in the fact they get to play the team that knocked them out of the playoffs and went on to win it all, I see the Nets out to make a statement. Some might see the drama with Kyrie Irving not playing because he won't get vaccinated as a big blow to this team. There's no denying that Irving is a special talent on the court, but he's a headcase off of it. I don't think not having him around is as going to hurt them as much as most think. They got a more than capable point guard to replace Irving in James Harden, a guy I think was out of shape last year. I think we are going to see Harden back to his MVP form and he's playing alongside arguably the best player in the game in Kevin Durant. This is also a deeper team than the one that ended last season. They brought in Patty Mills to be their backup point guard, so the depth there is solid. They also signed veteran Paul Milsap and got LaMarcus Aldridge to come out of retirement, giving them a solid 1-2 punch down low. I also think their 1st round pick in Cam Thomas is a guy who could carve out a role. Milwaukee's got pretty much the same team, outside of the addition of SG Grayson Allen. They also aren't at full strength with starting SG Donte DiVincenzo and backup big man Bobby Portis both out. Give me the Nets +1! |
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07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns -3.5 | Top | 123-119 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
50* (NBA) Bucks/Suns Game 5 MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -3.5) We took a tough loss with the Suns +5 in Game 4, as they wound up losing by 6 after leading by as many as 9 in the 4th quarter. It was a bit of a meltdown for Phoenix once Devin Booker picked up his 5th foul early in the 4th, as Booker had been dominating up to that point. Phoenix really should have won that game getting next to nothing out of veteran point guard Chris Paul. I just think that with the series shifting back to Phoenix, the Suns are going to not only get more out of their role players, but also I see Paul and Booker both playing well. Give me the Suns -3.5! |
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07-14-21 | Suns +5 v. Bucks | Top | 103-109 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Suns/Bucks MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns +5) I will gladly take my chances with Phoenix as a 5-point dog in Game 4. I was not surprised at all at what happened in Game 3. The Bucks were in full on desperation mode to avoid going down 3-0 and were getting a big boost with the series shifting to Milwaukee. Look for the Suns to bounce back in a big way. Neither Paul or Booker played well in Game 3. I see both of them playing better. I also think we see a lot more energy defensively from Phoenix. I also think that there's a good chance if Milwaukee does manage to win this game, the Suns will be able to keep it within the number. Give me Phoenix +5! |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Suns/Bucks MAX UNIT Top Play (Bucks -4) I was on the Suns in both Game 1 and Game 2. I also like Phoenix to win this series. With that said, I love this spot and price with the Bucks in Game 3, as the series shifts to Milwaukee. I know the final scores look like Phoenix dominated, but Milwaukee put a much better fight than the scores would indicate. Not only are the Bucks going to get a big boost playing at home (mainly the role players), we are going to see Milwaukee treat this like a Game 7. They have to win this game to have any shot. It's just hard for the Suns to treat it in the same way up 2-0. I think Milwaukee wins here and the Suns take the next two to close it out in Phoenix in Game 5. Give me the Bucks -4! |
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07-08-21 | Bucks v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Bucks/Suns MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -5.5) I cashed Phoenix in Game 1 and will fire right back with the Suns at -5.5 in Game 2. Even though the Bucks lost Game 1 by 13-points, there's a lot of talk about how competitive Milwaukee was in defeat. I look at it a little different. The Bucks lost by 13 despite the two teams basically shooting the same from the field (Suns 46.6% and Bucks 45.5%) and Milwaukee going +5 (16 to 11) on made 3-pointers. Giannis was able to play Game 1 and was effective with 20 points and 17 rebounds, but he only attempted 11 shots, while Middleton took 26 and both Holiday and Lopez attempting 14. That tells me Giannis is not 100%. I also wonder how that knee is going to respond to those 35 mins he played just two days ago. Give me the Suns -5.5! |
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07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns -6 | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Bucks/Suns Game 1 VEGAS INSIDER (Suns -6) I'll lay the 6-points with the Suns in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Tuesday. I know the Bucks were able to advance past the Hawks without Giannis in the Eastern Conference Finals, but I give them no shot against the Suns without him. He's likely to be back at some point, but is listed as doubtful for Game 1. I also think the Suns are much better suited to deal with the size and length of the Bucks. They have seen plenty of it in the postseason in their two series with the Lakers and Clippers. Guard play has also been a problem for Milwaukee defensively and Phoenix has two studs with Paul and Booker. I don't see this one being close at all. Give me the Suns -6! |
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07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Bucks/Hawks MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks -2.5) I really like Atlanta at -2.5 at home in Game 6 on Saturday. I think we have seen how much more home court matters when the star players aren't on the court in the last two games. Atlanta won Game 4 at home 110-88 in their first game without Trae Young. Milwaukee won Game 5 at home 123-112 in their first game without Giannis Antetokounmpo. Antetokounmpo has been downgraded to doubtful and Trae Young is questionable. Some thought there was a chance Young was going to come back for Game 2. With Atlanta facing elimination, you have to think Young will be out there at all costs. Even if he doesn't play (I think he will), I see this game playing out similarly to Game 4. Maybe not quite as big a blowout, but a comfortable home win to set up Game 7 on Sunday. Give me the Hawks -2.5! |
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07-01-21 | Hawks +2 v. Bucks | Top | 112-123 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Hawks/Bucks MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks +2) I'm going to take Atlanta as a small dog in Game 5 on the road. After watching the Hawks dominate Game 4 at home without Trae Young, some might be thinking Milwaukee can do the same without Giannis in this one. I just don't think that will be the case. Atlanta had no answer for Antetokounmpo. If he got to his spot, there was little to nothing they could do to stop him. If they doubled him, it would just result in an open shot for another player. I just think Milwaukee is in a lot of trouble without their former MVP to lead the way. Young is going to be a game-time decision for the Hawks. If he plays, it's a plus, but I don't think Atlanta needs him to win this game. Give me the Hawks +2! |
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06-30-21 | Suns +1 v. Clippers | Top | 130-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Suns/Clippers MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns +1) I'm going big on the Suns in Game 6 as they go to LA looking to close out the series. I did not see Game 5 going as it did. I expected a little more urgency out of Phoenix, but that just wasn't the case. There's also not a lot you can do when the Clippers not only get a monster game out of Paul George, but also huge showings from guys like Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris and DeMarcus Cousins. All 4 of those guys were lights out from the field, as they combined to shoot 63%. Replicating that kind of production is very unlikely. We should also see a big uptick in the energy level for the Suns. Give me Phoenix +1! |
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06-29-21 | Bucks -6.5 v. Hawks | 88-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Bucks/Hawks Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Bucks -6.5) I have to lay the 6.5 with Milwaukee in Game 4 on the road. While I'm expecting Trae Young to suit up for Atlanta, he's not going to be playing this game at 100%. I just don't think Atlanta has enough fire-power to keep it close against this Bucks team without Young putting up crazy numbers. Just look at Game 2, which Milwaukee won 125-91. Young only scored 15 points and yet was still the leading scorer for Atlanta. He's not only the guy that needs to score, he's the one that gets everyone else going. Not only that, but it's pretty clear the Hawks defense isn't built to stop this Bucks' offense. Milwaukee has really scored at will in the paint and when you get easy looks like that, it makes it a lot easier to not only win, but win going away on the road. Give me the Bucks -6.5! |
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06-28-21 | Clippers v. Suns -5 | Top | 116-102 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Clippers/Suns MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -5) I will gladly take my chances with the Suns as a 5-point home favorite in Game 5 on Monday. Phoenix was able to win Game 4 to take a 3-1 series lead. They did so with Paul and Booker having another off night shooting. Paul was 11 for 41 (26.8%) from the field in the 2 games at LA, while Booker was just as bad at 13 for 43 (30.2%). Phoenix as a team shot 38.9% from the field in Game 3 and 36.0% in Game 4. That's after they shot 55.1% in Game 1 and 50.0% in Game 2 at home. I know the Clippers have made some adjustments, but I think a lot of the poor shooting is just the difference of home/away. Keep in mind this is a Suns team that is shooting 48.8% from the field for the season. If they can just get in the mid 40's they are going to run away with this thing. Give me Phoenix -5! |
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06-27-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +5 | Top | 113-102 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Bucks/Hawks MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks +5) I love the value here with Atlanta as a 5-point home dog in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. If you look at the Game 2 line, which was Bucks -8 at home, this line should be closer to 2.5-3 at Atlanta when you factor in the home court edge. The line we are seeing is more like if they were playing on a neutral court. It's just a big overreaction to Milwaukee's blowout win in Game 2. What people overlook with that result, is that was a clear letdown spot for Atlanta who had just stole Game 1. Not only that game, but they had just played that Game 7 against the 76ers two days prior to Game 1. Milwaukee was simply the more motivated team in Game 2. I also think having Scott Foster referee that game, was a big advantage for the Bucks, as he lets a lot more go, which doesn't favor the smaller Young. Look for Young to not only get a few more calls and get back to that guy that dominated Game 1 with 48 points. He also should get plenty of help from the role players playing at home. Give me the Hawks +5! |
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06-26-21 | Suns -1 v. Clippers | Top | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Suns/Clippers MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -1) I really like Phoenix to bounce back from a really poor showing in Game 3 to win Game 4 and take a commanding 3-1 series lead. I know LA ended up running away with a 106-92 win in Game 3, but let's not forget that the Suns had the lead at the half in that one. When you look at how poorly Phoenix shot the ball, they were lucky it was as close as it was. Suns were just 35-90 (38.9%) from the field and shot a mere 31.3% from behind the 3-point line. Chris Paul was 5 of 19 (26.3%) from the field and Devin Booker was an even worse 5 of 21 (23.8%). I'm pretty confident Paul and Booker shoot considerably better in Game 3 and I just don't think LA will be able to keep pace without Kawhi Leonard. They may also be without a key piece in Marcus Morris. Give me the Suns -1! |
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06-24-21 | Suns -1 v. Clippers | Top | 92-106 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
50* (NBA) Suns/Clippers MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -1) I will gladly take my chances with the Suns at -1 in Game 3. I took the Clippers in both Game 1 and 2, just missing out on a cash in Game 1 and easily winning in Game 2. I just thought the Suns were being a bit overpriced with Chris Paul out. I don't know if it's cause the Clippers have been down 0-2 in each of their first two series and came back to make a series of it, but LA should be a be a bigger dog with Paul expected to return. Especially with Kawhi still out for the Clippers. You also can't overlook the way that Phoenix was able to steal Game 2. Not only Ayton's last second dunk for the win, but Paul George's two critical missed free throws right before that. Losing like that is brutal and can be really hard to bounce back from. Phoenix has also shown the want and the ability to finish off teams when they get up in a series. I'm confident there is zero overlooking this game for the Suns. Give me Phoenix -1! |
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06-23-21 | Hawks +8 v. Bucks | Top | 116-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - East Conference Finals PLAY OF THE MONTH (Hawks +8) I just feel like 8-points is way too much for Atlanta to be catching in Game 1 against the Bucks. Milwaukee should win the series, but there's no reason to think the Hawks aren't going to give them a run for their money. I think a lot of people credit Atlanta being in the Eastern Conference Finals more to the 76ers collapsing than giving them the props they deserve for how they are playing. Trae Young has been sensational. That's a tough 76ers team to score on with all their size and he wasn't deterred. I also think people are quick to forget just how fortunate the Bucks were in getting to this series. Injuries to Harden and Irving are the only reason Milwaukee is still playing. If they don't get hurt, Bucks probably get swept or lose in 5 and everyone is talking about how they need to blow it all up. Lastly, I just trust the Hawks a little more here to show up with the right mindset. Seeing how little respect they are getting with this huge line and hardly anyone picking them to win the series, they should have a chip on their shoulder. Milwaukee on the other hand just beat the team that everyone thought was going to win it all. Might be a little harder for them to bring that intensity. Give me the Hawks +8! |
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06-22-21 | Clippers +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Clippers/Suns MAX UNIT Top Play (+5.5) We took a bit of a tough beat on the Clippers +4 in Game 1, but I saw enough that I liked with LA to put up some big cash on them in Game 2 at +5.5. The Suns shot 55% from the field and got a triple-double from Devin Booker, who finished with 40 points, 13 rebounds, 11 assists. Yet it was a 2-point game with less than 25 seconds to play. That to me is a good sign for the Clippers being able to make the adjustments (something they have been great at in these playoffs) needed to not only cover, but even up the series 1-1 with a win. Booker may play well again in Game 2, but the chances of him replicating the box score from Game 1 is highly unlikely. Clippers got big games from George (34 points) and Jackson (24 points), but DeMarcus Cousins is the only other guy who finished in double-figures with 11. Mann, who had that monster Game 6 against Utah, only played 27 minutes because of foul trouble. He was 3 for 4, including 3 for 3 from 3. They have to do a better job of getting him more involved while he's playing like this. If Chris Paul was playing, this would be a different story. Give me the Clippers +5.5! |
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06-20-21 | Hawks +7 v. 76ers | Top | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Hawks/76ers Game 7 MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks +7) I've had a pretty good feel for this series, cashing the Hawks +6 in Game 5 and the 76ers -3 in Game 6. Given the number, I can't help myself but to go big on Atlanta +7 in Game 7. The home team has historically had the edge in Game 7, but not so much of late. Since 2016, the home team is just 8-7 SU in Game 7 and a miserable 4-11 ATS (2-10 L12). You also got to look at just how close these last 3 games have been at the end. Since the 76ers 16-point win in Game 3, the last 3 games have been decided by a combined 11 points with no single margin greater than 5. With that said, I not only think the Hawks can keep this close, but I wouldn't be shocked if they won outright. While Philly was able to keep the series alive with a 104-99 win in Game 6, I think it says a lot that Atlanta was able to keep it close with no one stepping up to help Trae Young. He had 34 points and the next best was 17 from Huerter. Not to mention it wasn't anywhere close to Young's best, as he was just 13 of 30 from the field. Give me the Hawks +7! |
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06-20-21 | Clippers +4 v. Suns | 114-120 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Clippers/Suns VEGAS INSIDER (Clippers +4) I'll take my chances with the Clippers as a 4-point road dog in Game 1 against the Suns. I know Chris Paul is just a piece to Phoenix's success, but I believe he's the most important piece. It's not so much his scoring, though it's been up in the playoffs, but his ability to run the offense and get guys easy looks. He's also the guy everyone looks to in tough situations. Not having him out there is a massive loss. I also think it's a tough spot for the Suns due to the fact that they haven't played in a week since their 4-game sweep of the Nuggets. The rest is great for the body, but no always great for the mind and mechanics. Clippers on the other hand are riding a wave of momentum after taking out the Jazz without Kawhi. I think LA is in prime position to steal Game 1. Give me the Clippers +4! |
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06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets -1.5 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
5* (NBA) - Bucks/Nets Game 7 MAX UNIT Top Play (Nets -1.5) I love the Nets as a slim -1.5 home favorite in Game 7 against the Bucks. The home team has historically owned Game 7 and I think that will be the case here. Milwaukee played really well at home in Game 6 to keep the series alive, but the Bucks don't figure to get the kind of production out of guys not named Antetokounmpo on the road. At the same time, you can expect more out of the role players for Brooklyn. I also think we could see Harden give a little more than he has, given this is a winner take all game. He was definitely more of a factor in his second game back and as long as he doesn't re-injure that hamstring, it's going to get better and better each day. More than anything, I'm betting on Kevin Durant to deliver the performance needed to get Brooklyn the win. We saw him put this team on his back in Game 5 and he's more than capable of shouldering the load. Give me the Nets -1.5! |
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06-18-21 | 76ers -3 v. Hawks | Top | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - 76ers/Hawks MAX UNIT Top Play (76ers -3) I'll take my chances here with the 76ers as a slim 3-point road favorite in Game 6. All the talk right now is about how Philadelphia blew that 26-point lead in Game 5. While I definitely enjoyed having the Hawks +6, I'm not writing the 76ers off like others. Not enough credit is being given to Atlanta's shot making. The Hawks were 13 of 16 from the field in the 4h quarter and it's not like they were all easy looks at the basket. Yes the 76ers played poorly down the stretch, but I still like what I saw from this team for the majority of that game. One thing is for sure, if the 76ers get up big at any point in the rest of this series, they will not take their foot off the gas. I feel good about Philly not only winning this game, but winning it rather convincingly. Give me the 76ers -3! |
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06-17-21 | Nets +6 v. Bucks | 89-104 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Nets/Bucks VEGAS INSIDER (Nets +6) This almost looks too good to be true with Brooklyn catching 6-points in Game 6, but I just can't help myself. I just really question the psyche of the Bucks after how they lost in Game 5. Milwaukee was in complete control of that game to start, leading 29-15 at the end of the 1st quarter and up by 16 at the half. Only to lose 108-114. Durant was sensational, scoring 49 points with 17 rebounds and 10 assists. No one may be better suited to shoulder the load than this guy. Having Harden helps. I know he's playing at less than 100%, but just his presence on the court is huge for this team. I also got to think he's going to do a little better than his 5 points on 1 of 10 shooting. I really think given how Game 5 ended that the series will end with a Nets win tonight, but no way I'm passing up on 6-points. Give me Brooklyn +6! |
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06-16-21 | Hawks +6.5 v. 76ers | Top | 109-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
50* (NBA) Hawks/76ers MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks +6.5) I'll take my chances with Atlanta as a 6.5-point road dog in Game 5. The series may be tied up at 2-2 and headed back to Philly, but the Hawks are the team with all the momentum. Atlanta outscored the 76ers 54-38 in the 2nd half of their 103-100 come from behind win in Game 4. While Trae Young had 25 points and 18 assists, he shot just 8 of 26 from the field and 3 for 11 from behind the 3-point line. I think it says a lot how he can impact a game that much even when he's not shooting great. Have to think Young will be a little more efficient in this one. The other huge thing here that I think should have this line lower, Joel Embiid is clearly not 100%. That torn meniscus in his knee is really starting to cause him problems. I just don't think that's something that's going to all the sudden feel better on just 1 day of rest. Keep in mind he had two days to recover from Game 3 to Game 4. Give me the Hawks +6.5! |
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06-15-21 | Bucks v. Nets +4.5 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Bucks/Nets MAX UNIT Top Play (Nets +4.5) No Kyrie. No Harden. How could the Nets possibly win this game without their two superstars? This is what everyone is thinking after Milwaukee's 107-96 win in Game 3 to even the series at 2-2. I believe we are seeing a big overreaction with this line. I just don't think the Bucks should be laying almost 5-points on the road. For as much as Milwaukee "dominated" Game 3, they only won by 11 with Brooklyn having an awful night offensively. Durant scored 28. The only other player was Irving with 11 and he played a total of 17 mins. I believe a lot of that is as simple as the impact being on the road has on the role players. I'm expecting a monster game from KD, but I also think Blake Griffin and Joe Harris will play big roles. I also think there will be an other guy step up and give them some scoring. At the same time, look for some regression from the Bucks role players on the road. You also got to think a few more calls go in Brooklyn's favor in front of the home crowd. Give me the Nets +4.5! |
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06-14-21 | Jazz v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 104-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Monday MAX UNIT Top Play (Clippers -4.5) I will roll the dice with the Clippers as a 4.5-point home favorite in Game 4. This is just one of those series where you almost expect the home team to win every game. Utah won the first two game at home and LA responded with a 132-106 win in Game 3. As is the case for just about every team, the big difference between playing at home and on the road is the play of your role players. Utah got 30 from Mitchell, but no other player reached 20. They also lost Game 3 by 26, despite making 19 and shooting 43% from behind the 3-point line. That tells me the Clippers defense is making it hard for them inside and it's a dangerous thing to live and die by the 3-pointer on the road. I wouldn't be shocked if this wasn't another blowout win. Give me LA -4.5! |
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06-13-21 | Nets -2 v. Bucks | Top | 96-107 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sunday MAX UNIT Top Play (Nets -2) I love the Nets as a slim 2-point road favorite in Game 4 against the Bucks. While Milwaukee was able to avoid going down 3-0 with a 86-83 win in Game 3, there was a lot not to like with the Bucks in that victory. Milwaukee just doesn't have enough offense outside of their two stars Antetokounmpo and Middleton. The two combined for 68 points with each going for more than 30 in Game 3 and yet they still only managed 86 points. The same output they posted in their 125-86 loss in Game 3. I just think Antetokounmpo's inability to shoot from outside really hurts this team. There's also zero chance the Nets are scoring anywhere close to 83 points in this one. Durant and Irving are too good. I not only think Brooklyn wins, but I wouldn't be shocked if this was a blowout. Give me the Nets -2! |
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06-12-21 | Jazz v. Clippers -4.5 | 106-132 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Jazz/Clippers VEGAS INSIDER (Clippers -4.5) I will gladly take my chances with the Clippers as a small 4.5-point home favorite against the Jazz. Utah has a 2-0 series lead, but it's not like they have dominated. Jazz won Game 1 112-109 and Game 2 117-111. That's with Donovan Mitchell scoring 45 and 37 points. With the series shifting to LA and the Clippers backs firmly against the wall, I like them to not only win Game 3 but to win it convincingly. If you remember, whenever LA needed a win in their previous series against the Mavs they got the job done. I think the Clippers will have a better game plan for Mitchell and we will see Utah's shooting go down a bit on the road. Give me the Clippers -4.5! |
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06-11-21 | 76ers -1 v. Hawks | Top | 127-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Friday MAX UNIT Top Play (76ers -1) I really like the value here with the 76ers at basically a pick'em on the road in Game 3. Since the Hawks led 74-54 at the half in Game 1, Philadelphia has outscored Atlanta 188-156 (+32). After that loss in Game 1, the 76ers really dominated from the start in Game 2. They held the Hawks to 20 points in the 1st quarter and 18 in the 4th quarter. Philadelphia is also going to be extremely motivated to get back the home court advantage. As far as Embiid, he's clearly not limited by his knee. Embiid had 40 points and 13 boards in Game 2. I like Trae Young and this Hawks team, but playing a team like the 76ers is where their inexperience in the playoffs could really hurt them. I just don't know if I'm with everyone else on how good this Atlanta team is. Seems to me they are getting a lot of love from eliminating a Knicks team that was destined to struggle in the postseason. Give me the 76ers -1! |
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06-10-21 | Clippers v. Jazz -3 | Top | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Thursday MAX UNIT Top Play (Jazz -3) We suffered a tough 1/2-point loss on the Jazz -3.5 in Game 1, but will not hesitate to take Utah at -3 in Game 2. The Jazz couldn't have started much worse in Game 1, scoring just 18 points in the 1st quarter and trailing by as many as 14 before winning 112-109. After getting a chance to make some adjustments at the half, Utah outscored the Clippers 32-19 in the 3rd quarter. They also won that game despite an off-night shooting. While they did make 17 3-pointers, they shot 50, which is only 34%. They also shot just 40% from the field overall. Let's also not forget how tough it is to play in Utah. The Jazz have a massive home-court edge, which is why I think they win here and wouldn't be surprised if LA came back and won the next two at home. Give me Utah -3! |
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06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks -3.5 | 83-86 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Bucks -3.5) I'll take my chances with Milwaukee in Game 3 at home against the Nets. It will be tough for a lot of people to back the Bucks here after watching them get annihilated 125-86 in Game 2 on Monday. Thing is, losing like that makes me like Milwaukee even more. Not only are we going to get some value on the line, but we also know that the Bucks are going to treat this like it's Game 7 of the NBA Finals. Lose here and you can stick a fork in them. I definitely think Milwaukee is better than they showed in their two games in Brooklyn. I wouldn't be surprised if the Nets don't lose at home this entire playoffs , especially if Harden comes back soon. Lets also not forget the Nets went up 2-0 at home on Boston and went on to lose Game 3 119-125 as a 7-point favorite. Give me the Bucks -3.5! |
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