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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-25-24 | Knicks v. 76ers -4.5 | 114-125 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on 76ers* The Philadelphia 76ers are down 2-0 in this series. I still believe the 76ers are the slightly better team. They fell apart in the last minute and were the victim of a couple bad calls late in game two. Joel Embiid, Nick Nurse, and the rest of the Philadelphia team were extremely upset after the way they lost game two. If they don't come out and put forth their best effort here it would be pretty surprising. The Knicks played harder than Philadelphia in those first two games at Madison Square Garden. If Philadelphia can even just match the Knicks intensity I give them a good shot to cover here. They are down 2-0, and this game means a whole lot more to the 76ers than it does for the Knicks. Take Philadelphia. |
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04-21-24 | Pelicans v. Thunder -8 | 92-94 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Thunder* The Oklahoma City Thunder have been resting up and getting ready for game one. New Orleans had to play in the play in spot twice. They just played late Friday night against Sacramento. A little less than 48 hours later, the Pelicans will travel to Oklahoma City to take on the #1 seeded Thunder in game one. There are loads of ATS angles that strongly support taking teams who are at home and rested in game one. That angle went 4-0 ATS yesterday as well. Zion Williamson is out for this one. Without Williamson, Oklahoma City blasted New Orleans by more than 20 on the road in the middle of the season. The Thunder are the top seed, but they have been doubted by a lot of people. I like their young collection of players. Even if the Pelicans give them some trouble in this series, I think this is a good spot for the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City. |
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04-09-24 | Heat -3 v. Hawks | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Heat* The Miami Heat have always been a good road team ATS under Erik Spoelstra. I view him as one of the best coaches in the NBA. Miami goes on the road here with a lot to play for. The Heat actually have a favorable schedule down the stretch, and they absolutely still have a shot to get up to the 6th seed in the Eastern Conference if they get hot late. That would keep Miami out of the play in tournament. That is definitely a high priority for the team. Atlanta is without Trae Young. The Hawks have been an inconsistent team. Atlanta though has far less to play for right now. They will finish in either the 9th or 10th spot in the Eastern Conference standings. They are heading for a play in position no matter what. Miami's upside is clearly higher than Atlanta, especially with the Hawks without Young. I trust Miami to show up with a good effort in a crucial game for them. Take the Heat. |
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03-06-24 | Bucks v. Warriors -3.5 | 90-125 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Warriors* To say that the Golden State Warriors were embarrassed in their last game is an understatement. They lost 140-88 at Boston in that last game. The Celtics are a great team, but Golden State had been playing well and this is a very proud veteran team. They didn't take losing in that fashion well. Golden State is expected to have Andrew Wiggins back in the lineup for this one. Wiggins is an underrated piece for this team. He's an excellent defender and a solid scoring option to go along with the other elite shooters Golden State has around the floor. Giannis is questionable for this game. The Achilles injury is a really tricky one and if he does try to play here, he should be less than 100%. Middleton is also out for the Bucks, and he is a key part of the Bucks offense too. Golden State is the more rested team, and they are anxious to get back on track. I like this situational spot for the Warriors. Take Golden State. |
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03-03-24 | Pacers -6 v. Spurs | 105-117 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Pacers* The Indiana Pacers were absolutely blown away by the Pelicans in their last game. This Pacers team has been pretty solid this year, and they haven't been on the receiving end of blowouts often, especially when Tyrese Haliburton has been healthy. The crazy part about last game is Haliburton was held scoreless. San Antonio is coming off a stunning win over Oklahoma City. The Spurs have been consistently terrible and have the worst record in the Western Conference. This is a difficult spot for the Spurs. The Pacers beat the Spurs by 41 points in their first meeting. I would expect a focused Pacers team here to bounce back. Take Indiana. |
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02-23-24 | Wizards +16 v. Thunder | 106-147 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Wizards* The Washington Wizards aren't a good team, but they have actually played better away from home. This isn't a bet I'm excited to make, but the situation and the systems say it is one that holds value. The Thunder are coming off a big win over the Clippers last night. That was the huge game for them and they put out a huge effort. This is a letdown spot. Non-conference road underdogs getting 12 points or more and less than 45% of the bets are 101-60 ATS (60.5%) in the last 161 in the NBA. I'll grab the big amount of points here. Take Washington. |
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02-12-24 | Bulls +4 v. Hawks | 136-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Bulls* The Atlanta Hawks are 17-36 ATS this season. The Hawks aren't trustworthy. They are laying four points here against a Chicago Bulls team that is a far better defense. This game means a lot to both teams because they are battling for positioning in the playoff standings (9th and 10th spot). The Hawks have been particularly bad when laying points, and I don't think they should be laying this many points against a Chicago team that has played better basketball of late. I'll take the points. Take Chicago. |
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02-07-24 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Clippers | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Pelicans* The LA Clippers are in a difficult spot here. The Clippers had a long 11 day road trip that just ended. The best players on the Clippers roster played heavy minutes the last couple games as well. Now, they come home and play their 4th game in six days. New Orleans has been playing really good basketball. The Pelicans are playing only their 2nd game in the last five days. They have won three straight games and all of their key players should be without minutes restrictions here. The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. Grab the points here. Take New Orleans. |
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01-26-24 | Magic -5.5 v. Grizzlies | 106-107 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Orlando* The Memphis Grizzlies are coming off two wins and feeling good about themselves. This is still a very shorthanded and offensively challenged Memphis team though. The Grizzlies are dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency on the season. They are without both Ja Morant and Desmond Bane. Those are their top two offensive players. Orlando is coming off a blowout at the hands of Cleveland. The Magic have had several days to think about that game. Road teams who are good (above 50% win percentage) coming off a blowout loss have been fantastic bets in the NBA in the last 15 years. The Magic fit the spot here. Orlando is healthier now with Franz Wagner back in the lineup. Wagner can take over the game. Take Orlando to bounce back here. |
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01-22-24 | Cavs +1.5 v. Magic | 126-99 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Cavs* The Cleveland Cavs have won 7 straight games. It has been their defense that has led the way through the streak. Cleveland is playing the best defense in the NBA of late. Miami's Cole Anthony tweaked his ankle on Sunday. They said he should be ok, but it wouldn't be a surprise if he misses this game or plays fewer minutes. Franz Wagner is the team leader and he came back from injury on Sunday. There's a chance he'll be sat out here on a back to back scheduling spot. If he does play, I think his minutes will be watched closely. Orlando is in a tough scheduling spot. The Magic have been playing a bunch lately, and the Cavs are clearly the more rested team here. Take Cleveland. |
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01-05-24 | Wolves -3.5 v. Rockets | 122-95 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Minnesota* The Minnesota Timberwolves have lost two straight games. They haven't lost three straight this year, and I don't think they'll do it here either. Good teams bouncing back on the road has been a great angle in the NBA in the last 15 years. The Timberwolves fit that in every way. Minneosta has the best record in the Western Conference. They are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Minnesota is a deep team with several different guys who can take over a game. Houston has been good at home this year. The Rockets are a decent team. Still, their very best is clearly quite a bit lower than the Timberwolves very best. I think we'll see the Timberwolves respond here with a strong effort. Take Minnesota. |
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12-11-23 | Heat -3.5 v. Hornets | 116-114 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Heat* I like the spot here for Miami. The Heat are coming off a big loss to the Cavs at home. They have had three days to get ready for this game. Miami is in a good place injury wise compared to most teams. Erik Spoelstra is one of the best coaches in the NBA and I like this as a good spot for the Heat to get back on track. Charlotte is just 7-13 on the season and they are only 8-12 ATS so far this year. The Hornets defense is a big weakness. Miami was laying 6.5 last time these two met in Charlotte earlier this year. Miami coming off a poor game gives us some line value. Take Miami. |
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12-01-23 | Wizards +11.5 v. Magic | 125-130 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Wizards* The Orlando Magic just beat the Washington Wizards 139-120 just a couple days ago. Orlando was 17 for 27 from 3 point range in that game. It's highly unlikely they can do that again. Orlando's stock has never been higher. The Magic are playing very well. Is this a game where Orlando is highly motivated to run up the score though? Orlando plays tomorrow in Brooklyn in what is a much bigger game and where the Magic will be underdogs. The spot here is great for Washington since they don't play again until December 6. A chance for revenge very soon and a chance to sell high on the Magic. Take Washington. |
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11-20-23 | Heat -1 v. Bulls | 118-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Heat* The Chicago Bulls haven't won back to back games all season. They are now being asked to do it tonight against a Heat team with quick revenge on their minds. Miami led much of their recent matchup against the Bulls. Chicago made a big late comeback and beat the Heat in the end. Road teams with revenge has been a good angle in the NBA, especially when it is quick revenge. I trust the Heat more than the Bulls, and I like the spot. Take Miami. |
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11-08-23 | Blazers +8.5 v. Kings | 118-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Blazers* The Portland Blazers are road underdogs in Sacramento tonight. Portland is coming off a loss to Memphis in their last game. Road underdogs off a loss has been a good angle in the NBA for the past decade. Portland is in that spot here. The Blazers have won in Toronto and in Detroit already this year. Sacramento will be without De'Aaron Fox. He is one of the most important players to his team in the league. Fox is the facilitator of this offense. He's the guy they turn to in the biggest spots. The Kings deserve to be favored here, but this is too many points. Take Portland. |
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11-01-23 | Pacers +11.5 v. Celtics | 104-155 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Indiana* The Indiana Pacers have looked like an elite offense early in the season. Indiana has scored 143, 125, and 106 points in their first three contests. The 125 point total was up against a very good Cleveland Cavaliers defense. Boston is an excellent team, but they haven't been good at covering big spreads the last few seasons. If we go back to 2010, Boston is just 94-128 ATS (42.3% ATS) when laying 8 points or more. Since 2016, they are just 40.2% ATS when laying 8 points or more. Indiana has the offense to get a backdoor cover here even if the Celtics get out to a sizeable lead in the first three quarters. Boston is very good both offensively and defensively, but they are laying a huge number against an Indiana team that is far from a bottom feeder. I see the Pacers as a middle of the pack type team. I'll grab the points. Take Indiana. |
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05-23-23 | Celtics v. Heat -1 | 116-99 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Miami* The Boston Celtics came into the Conference Finals round as a -110 favorite at many books to win the NBA Championship. How did this team get to be rated so highly? Their coach is clearly in above his head, and the team has multiple times just completely shut it down and quit in playoff games this season. Boston has more talent than Miami, but it hasn't been nearly a big enough edge. The Celtics are at a massive coaching disadvantage, and their team chemistry clearly isn't even close to level with Miami. Caleb Martin's emergence as a tremendous player for the Heat has taken them to the next level of late. Gabe Vincent has been excellent as well. Jimmy Butler is the best player on the court in this matchup. Of course it is possible Boston could show some heart and rise up for a game. If they had a better coach or this game were at home I would lay off here. Given the situation, I have to bet Miami. The Heat should be ready to finish this one at home and get in plenty of rest. Erik Spoelstra might be the best coach in the NBA. His teams are 39-20 ATS in the playoffs dating back to 2020. Going back to 2012, his teams are at 60% ATS in the postseason. Take Miami. |
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05-17-23 | Heat +8 v. Celtics | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Miami* Erik Spoelstra is one of the best coaches in the NBA. Spoelstra has consistently helped his team peak at the right time. He is a playoffs coach. Jimmy Butler gets a lot of praise and it is well deserved regarding his playoff performances, but Spoelstra doesn't get enough credit for how he has his teams ready to play when the stage is bigger. Dating back to 2011, Spoelstra's teams are 59% ATS in the playoffs. He puts his team in a great position to win games. Boston clearly has the more talented team, but the Celtics just lost two games at home to the 76ers last round. They are an inconsistent team this season. The Heat went to Milwaukee and won two games in Round One. They also won at MSG last round. Miami is the more rested team here. The Celtics had to play a Game 7 on Sunday. Well rested teams have been good in Game One of an NBA playoff series over the last decade. I'll grab the points. Take Miami. |
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05-04-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -5.5 | 100-127 | Win | 100 | 20 h 12 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Warriors* The spot here is a very good one for Golden State. The Warriors cannot afford to go down 0-2 with two losses at home. The Lakers had the rest advantage in game one of this series, but they no longer have that advantage. Anthony Davis played 44 minutes in game one. LeBron James played 40 minutes as well. The Warriors sat their stars quite a bit more. Don't be surprised if the Golden State key players play more minutes in this one. Golden State dug a hole and came back to tie it in game one only to come up a bit short. Anthony Davis is a really talented player, but he has the tendency to be inconsistent. He's had one great game and one mediocre game in a pattern for a good while in the playoffs. He will be pretty good here, but I'm not sure he can replicate his game one performance. The Lakers lost by 10 and 17 in two of the three road games in Memphis. Golden State has been fantastic at home this year at 35-10. The Warriors are 40-19 ATS in their last 59 home games. I expect a strong performance from the home team here. Take Golden State. |
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04-28-23 | Kings v. Warriors -7 | 118-99 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Warriors* The Sacramento Kings have had a great season, but I think it ends here. The Golden State Warriors have been dominant at home this year. Golden State is 40-17-1 ATS in their last 58 home games. The Warriors are now the healthier team too. De'Aaron Fox didn't score in the last quarter of Game 5, and he is at least somewhat bothered by his broken finger on his shooting hand. Golden State has so many different options on offense. I continue to think Andrew Wiggins is very underrated in this offense as the third scoring option. Draymond Green is a very good facilitator as well. Golden State's defense has been much better on their home floor, and they should give the Kings enough problems here. Sacramento has to be discouraged given starting the series 2-0 only to be trailing 3-2 now. The Kings are a team on the rise for the long run, but I think they lose and fail to cover in this one. Take Golden State. |
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04-20-23 | Kings v. Warriors -6 | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Golden State* The Golden State Warriors come home down 2-0 to the upstart Sacramento Kings. The spot screams Golden State. The price isn't cheap, but I'm going to lay it and trust the defending champs to rise up here. Golden State is without Draymond Green, but Green isn't the player he was a few years ago. The Warriors also have better depth than they had in some past years. I expect guys like Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins to have bigger games at home here. Golden State is 39-16-1 ATS in their home games this year. They have only lost 8 games at home this year. While this is a fairly big number to lay, the total is 240.5 and with a total that high laying 6 isn't as tough as it would be with a low totaled game. The Kings are still a young team and the Warriors have to win this one. Take Golden State. |
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04-14-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Wolves | 95-120 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Thunder* The Oklahoma City Thunder have been proving people wrong all year long. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a superstar leading the Thunder all the way. In my opinion, SGA is the best player on the floor in this game. That is especially the case with Anthony Edwards banged up right now. Minnesota gets Rudy Gobert back in this one, but there are clearly major chemistry problems with Gobert and the rest of the team. Minnesota isn't likely to get the amazing three point shooting from Mike Conley and company that they did in the Lakers game (at least in the first 3 quarters). The Timberwolves are an inconsistent team that actually enters this game not playing particularly well late in the season. The Thunder have covered the spread in 57% of their games this year. I think this game goes right down to the wire, so I'll take the points. Take Oklahoma City. |
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03-31-23 | Jazz +13.5 v. Celtics | 114-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Jazz* The Boston Celtics have been one of the worst teams in the NBA the last few years when they are laying a big number. Boston is 50-73 ATS (40.7% ATS) as a favorite of 8 points or larger since the 2016-2017 season. When it has been against a team with a losing record straight up, Boston is just 39-67 (36.8% ATS) when laying 8 points or more. Utah still can make the Western Conference playoffs with a good stretch here at the end of the season. They have plenty to play for in a spot like this. Boston is coming off a 140-99 epic blowout win over the Bucks in Milwaukee last night. It's a quick turnaround here, and no one could blame the Celtics for just wanting to get out with a win in this one. This isn't a good spot for Boston. I'll grab the points here. Take Utah. |
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03-22-23 | Rockets +13 v. Grizzlies | 125-130 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Rockets* The Memphis Grizzlies get Ja Morant back for this one. They will not have Dillon Brooks, Steven Adams, or Brandon Clarke. Morant is a great player, but after a long break and major off the court issues this could be a bit strange from a team chemistry standpoint. Memphis is a very talented team, but they are far from 100 percent and it could take some time for Morant to get back into the flow. The Houston Rockets have actually been much more competitive of late as they have gotten healthier as a team. In game 67 or later of the season- A team with an ATS win percentage of 43% or lower (Houston) against a team with a ATS win percentage of 45% or higher (Memphis) is 265-200 ATS (57% Wins) dating back to 2006. This one fits the system. Take Houston. |
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03-20-23 | Bulls v. 76ers -7.5 | 109-105 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on 76ers* The Chicago Bulls have typically played pretty well against subpar teams, but they haven't been good when they step up in class. Chicago is 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. They are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. The Philadelphia 76ers are really playing some good basketball of late. Philadelphia is 22-9 ATS in their last 31 home games. They are playing excellent defense of late. Joel Embiid is playing some of the best basketball of his career. The 76ers lost the last time these two played. Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings against the Bulls. I like them to bounce back from this rare SU and ATS loss the last time these two played. Take Philadelphia. |
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03-06-23 | Raptors v. Nuggets -7 | 113-118 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Denver* The Toronto Raptors have been bad on the road all year. Who is an elite home team? The Denver Nuggets. Denver is 29-4 at home this year. They are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games. Denver has an excellent home court advantage with a good fan base and the excellent elevation advantage. Toronto went to overtime in their last game on Saturday. The Raptors aren't a particularly deep team anymore. Denver is healthier than they have been in quite a while, and this Nuggets team is in great form. It's a good spot for them. Take Denver. |
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02-13-23 | Wolves +8 v. Mavs | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Minnesota* The Dallas Mavericks are coming off a road trip and they have been very busy. They just played on February 10th and 11th in Sacramento. The game on the 11th went into overtime as well. The first game back home can be a tough spot. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving together is a dangerous combo for the NBA, but it could take some time for them to get everything figured out. Minnesota has a lot of talent, and the Timberwolves are coming off an embarrassing loss last game. The Wolves are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 following an ATS loss. Dallas is 2-10-1 ATS laying 5.5 points or more against a non-division opponent. The Mavericks haven't been good laying points in general. The oddsmakers have set a pretty big number here against a Timberwolves team that should be pretty good with Mike Conley in the fold. Take Minnesota. |
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02-07-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets -8 | 112-146 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Nuggets* The Denver Nuggets are 25-4 at home this year. You could argue they have the best home court advantage in the NBA. They play at a high altitude in Denver which makes tired teams really struggle. The Timberwolves are playing their third game in five days. Minnesota has seen two of their last four games go to overtime as well. Denver was blasted by Minnesota Sunday by a score of 128-98. That should motivate them here in a very quick revenge spot. Last time around Denver sat all of their stars. Now it is expected that Jokic, Murray, and Gordon will be back on the floor for the Nuggets. Long-term one of the better ATS angles has been to back very good teams coming off an embarrassing blowout loss. That is especially the case when they are at home. Take Denver. |
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02-03-23 | Kings v. Pacers +3.5 | 104-107 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Pacers* Indiana is coming off a tough loss to the Lakers, but the Pacers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. Sacramento is expected to be without De'Aaron Fox in this game. Fox is one of the most important players on their roster. I think they will really miss his passing ability and his ability to lead the transition opportunities they count on. The Pacers are 16-11 straight up at home and with them catching more than a full possession against a team without an All Star caliber player, I have to back the home team here. Take Indiana. |
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01-30-23 | Magic +9.5 v. 76ers | 119-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Magic* The Orlando Magic aren't a good team, but they have been good at covering the spread. Orlando is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following an ATS loss. They are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games. They are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 60% or higher. The 76ers are a really good team. They aren't in a good spot here though. Philadelphia poured a lot into that win over Denver on Saturday. That was the Embiid vs. Jokic huge game. Philly did take care of business there in a 7 point win. Embiid has been a bit hobbled of late, and his minutes may be reduced here. Orlando should be able to at least stay competitive here. Take the Magic. |
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01-20-23 | Pelicans -1 v. Magic | 110-123 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Pelicans* The New Orleans Pelicans were embarrassed 124-98 by the Miami Heat in their last game. New Orleans is without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, but C.J. McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas are having very good seasons. This is a proud team that should be part of the playoffs again this season. The Orlando Magic are coming off a tough five game road trip. Orlando isn't good offensively, and Franz Wagner and Markelle Fultz are both questionable in this one. Buying NBA teams off a blowout loss has been a good strategy in the long run. The Pelicans certainly fit that system, and I like them laying the very short number here. Take New Orleans. |
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01-09-23 | Bucks +1 v. Knicks | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Bucks* The Milwaukee Bucks were embarrassed by the Hornets in their last game. In the NBA, a great long term strategy has been to back good teams coming off big losses. The Bucks certainly qualify. Let's see the specific angle. A team with a winning percentage of 51% or higher coming off a loss of 15 points or larger.. if they are the road team in their next game they are hitting 55.3% ATS in the past 15 years. Laying 4 points or fewer (up through the underdog role) it is 56.4%. This is a large sample size. Milwaukee is a really good team even without Middleton on the floor. The Knicks have been really inconsistent of late, and RJ Barrett is listed as doubtful for this game. Take Milwaukee. |
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12-07-22 | Celtics v. Suns +1.5 | 125-98 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Suns* Chris Paul is expected back in the lineup for this one. The Phoenix Suns have been playing great basketball overall, but they are coming off one bad performance against the Dallas Mavericks, and I think this is a good spot for them to bounce back. Boston is an excellent team, but the Celtics are due for some regression on offense. Boston is averaging 1.20 points per possession this year. That is insanely high, and on a spot here where they are playing their third road game in four days, I think some regression could come here. Phoenix is 12-2 at home so far this year. That includes wins over Golden State twice. The Suns are getting healthy and would love nothing more than to trip up Boston in what is a bad situational spot for the Celtics. Take Phoenix. |
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12-05-22 | Bucks -9 v. Magic | 109-102 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Milwaukee* The Milwaukee Bucks rested Giannis and Jrue Holiday on Saturday. They should be back in this game. In fact, Jim Owczarski who covers the Bucks tweeted that Holiday and Giannis are both off the Bucks injury report as of Sunday night. This appears to be the first game where Khris Middleton, Giannis, and Jrue Holiday will all start together. The Bucks are finally getting healthier. Orlando doesn't have much depth at all. The Magic are also without Suggs, Carter, Harris, and Bamba right now due to injury. The Magic have been terrible of late. Orlando has won just one of their last ten games. They have lost five of those games by 13 points or more. That includes a 17 point home loss to the Hawks and a 30 point home loss to the 76ers. The Bucks are still the best team in the East. I like them to cruise to a big win here. Take Milwaukee.    |
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11-23-22 | 76ers v. Hornets -4.5 | 101-107 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
11-16-22 | Bulls +2 v. Pelicans | 110-124 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Bulls* The Bulls have had two days of rest coming into this game. The Pelicans have zero days of rest. New Orleans is also playing its 5th game in 7 days. Zion Williamson will miss this game with an injury. Williamson is such a key to the upside for this New Orleans team. New Orleans just went to Chicago and won last week. The Bulls are now the healthier team and much better rested team. The script is flipped from last week. Situationally, this is a really good spot for the Bulls. Take Chicago. |
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11-09-22 | Bucks -6.5 v. Thunder | 136-132 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Bucks* The Milwaukee Bucks have been playing like the best team in the NBA so far this year. This is a team led by arguably the best player in the NBA in Giannis. They have some great pieces around him too. I like their identity as a defensive minded team that takes care of the basketball. Milwaukee is coming off their first loss of the season. They were thumped by the Hawks in Atlanta on Monday. They had a day off and now look to bounce back against a Thunder team that plays hard, but they are badly outmanned here. This has been a good angle in the NBA in the past- taking good teams off blowout losses. The Bucks have been great in this spot in the past. Take Milwaukee. |
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11-02-22 | Celtics -2 v. Cavs | 113-114 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Celtics* The Cleveland Cavaliers are a good team. Cleveland should have a nice season. They are still at a talent disadvantage when they take on the Boston Celtics. Cleveland is expected to be without Darius Garland again in this game. Garland is a key loss for this group. Boston led most of the way, but blew it and lost in overtime at home to Cleveland just a few days ago. The Celtics are back and looking for some road revenge here. Grant Williams is back in the lineup for the Celtics and his presence will help. The Celtics have been road warriors in recent seasons, and we should get full effort from Boston in this situational spot. Take Boston. |
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10-26-22 | Nets v. Bucks -4 | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Bucks* The Milwaukee Bucks are my pick to win the NBA Championship this year. The Bucks come into this game extremely well rested with their last game being on Saturday. Milwaukee's roster is put together in a way where I really don't see any significant weaknesses. The Bucks have the best player in the NBA now in Giannis. They also have great outside shooters to surround him. Milwaukee has great individual defenders too. The Brooklyn Nets have star power, but that is all. Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant both scored 37 points in their last game against Memphis, and the Nets still lost by 10 points! Brooklyn's defense will be one of the worst in the NBA. Milwaukee moves the ball very well, and I expect them to have very little trouble putting up a big number on the Nets. I'm going to lay the short number on the better team at home. Take Milwaukee. |
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10-24-22 | Nuggets -3.5 v. Blazers | 110-135 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Nuggets* The Portland Blazers are coming off a win over the Los Angeles Lakers in LA on Sunday. They return home on no rest to take on the Denver Nuggets. Denver had the day off Sunday after winning over Oklahoma City on Saturday. The Blazers don't have nearly as much talent as the Nuggets. Damian Lillard and company are 3-0 straight up and ATS coming into this one, but I think now is a good time to sell high. Lillard is excellent, but he doesn't have enough scoring help on this team in the long run. Portland is in a bad spot after beating the Lakers yesterday as well. Denver is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Portland. Take Denver. |
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10-19-22 | Nuggets -7.5 v. Jazz | 102-123 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Nuggets* The Utah Jazz went out of their way to get worse in the offseason. They got rid of Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, and even Bojan Bogdonavic. Mike Conley is the only big name left on the roster, and he isn't really a "scorer" by nature. He doesn't have many guys to set up anymore. The Denver Nuggets are set to have a big season with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back healthy once again. Nikola Jokic is a superstar, and now he has help once again. Bruce Brown was a really solid add for Denver in the offseason. Jeff Green still provides some good minutes and is very versatile. There is a huge talent gap in this one and I think the Nuggets will be anxious to get things tipped off the right way here. Take Denver. |
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06-02-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -3.5 | 120-108 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Warriors* The Golden State Warriors are extremely well rested coming into this game. Boston has had a few days to rest now too, but they are coming off two straight very hard fought 7 game series against the Bucks and then the Heat. Boston is a really good team and I expect this to be a highly competitive series, but I think this is a tough spot for them. Well rested home teams in the NBA playoffs (4 days or more of rest between games) are 112-68 ATS since 2006. Golden State is in that spot here. Boston played a very poor game in game one against Miami after their 7 game series with Milwaukee. Golden State is the veteran team here and while Boston's defense gets a lot of credit (they are great), this Golden State defense is excellent as well. I'll lay the points here with the Warriors. Take Golden State. |
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05-01-22 | Warriors -2 v. Grizzlies | 117-116 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Warriors* The Memphis Grizzlies are a good team. Memphis is still coming off a very hard fought series where they won their first playoff series in nine years though. The Minnesota Timberwolves played hard and were a tricky matchup for Memphis, but the Golden State Warriors are on a whole different level. Minnesota blew double digit leads in all but one of Memphis' wins in the first round series. I wouldn't expect that type of thing to happen with Golden State. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Jordan Poole form a great nucleus for the Warriors. Golden State is willing to win games with three point shooting or with their strong defense. Memphis has less than 48 hours between games here, while Golden State had a lot of time to rest up and prepare for this one. I like the veteran Warriors to come out ready to go in game one. Take Golden State. |
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04-22-22 | Bucks -2.5 v. Bulls | 111-81 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Bucks* The Chicago Bulls deserve credit for going on the road and winning game two. Still, I think Milwaukee was ill prepared for that game. The Bucks seemed to be going through the motions for much of that game. Milwaukee isn't likely to do the same in this one. Middleton is a key loss for the Bucks, but Milwaukee is still one of the deepest teams in the NBA. The Bucks bench played terribly in game two, but on the whole this is an excellent bench. The Bucks are likely to have a much better intensity on defense for this game. This is still the same Chicago Bulls team that has been getting beaten up on by the good teams late in the season. In fact, Chicago is now 23-49 ATS in their last 72 as a home underdog. The Bulls have regularly been blown out by the best teams in the league. They will up against a highly motivated Milwaukee Bucks team here. Brook Lopez has played well lately, and I think he will serve as a solid second option to Giannis. Jrue Holiday has shot the ball poorly, but he is likely to improve through the rest of the series too. Milwaukee is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games in Chicago. Take Milwaukee. |
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04-16-22 | Raptors +4.5 v. 76ers | 111-131 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Raptors* The Philadelphia 76ers are a good team, but I don't think they are worthy of laying this many points against a really well coached Toronto Raptors team. Does Philadelphia have more talent than Toronto. Yes. Harden is clearly past his prime though, and there will be a lot of pressure on Joel Embiid to dominate against a good defensive frontcourt of Toronto. These two teams played four times this year. Toronto covered all four times. The Raptors won 3 of the 4 meetings. I view Nick Nurse as one of the two or three best coaches in the NBA today. Doc Rivers is one of the bottom ten coaches in the NBA. Look for this game to be tight all the way. I'll grab the points. Take Toronto. |
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04-06-22 | Thunder +17.5 v. Jazz | 101-137 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Thunder* This isn't a fun bet to make, but I think it is the right one. The Utah Jazz clinched a playoff spot last night. No rest for this one against the lowly Thunder. If you are going to rest anyone or overlook a game, this is the spot. Oklahoma City has quietly been a covering machine on the road as an underdog. They are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 as a road underdog. How about the Jazz as a big favorite? Utah is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games when favored by 10 points or more. The Thunder have young players who are working hard to try to make an NBA team next year. The Jazz want to win this game, but they don't have a lot of motivation to run up the score here. I'll grab the points with Oklahoma City. Take the Thunder. |
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03-21-22 | Heat -1.5 v. 76ers | 106-113 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Heat* The Philadelphia 76ers are playing their third game in four days. They just played last night and lost a tough one to the Toronto Raptors. The 76ers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playing on zero days of rest. Philadelphia is up against a Miami team playing with a lot of confidence. The Heat also get Jimmy Butler back. Caleb Martin is probable to return here too. The 76ers have a banged up Embiid which really limits their upside. Miami is 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. The Heat are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings against the 76ers. The scheduling spot is a really tough one for the 76ers. Take Miami. |
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03-11-22 | Hornets -2 v. Pelicans | 142-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Hornets* The Charlotte Hornets will play against a very shorthanded New Orleans Pelicans team here. C.J. McCollum has been their go to guy in recent weeks, but he is now out due to COVID protocols. Brandon Ingram is out with an injury as well. At this point, New Orleans is left with Herb Jones, Devonte Graham, and Tony Snell as their top options in the backcourt. Charlotte isn't good defensively, but the Hornets can score in bunches. They have a much more talented team than New Orleans. The Hornets have Ball, Bridges, and Rozier as great options. This Pelicans team has played decent of late, but without McCollum and Ingram I don't think they can keep up. Take the Hornets. |
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03-07-22 | Knicks v. Kings -3.5 | 131-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Kings* The Sacramento Kings catch the New York Knicks in a bad spot here. The Knicks are playing their 4th road game in the past six days. New York is coming off their best performance in quite a while. They blasted the Clippers last night in LA. The Knicks are still a subpar team though and they are unlikely to put two great efforts together back to back. The Kings have been much more competitive of late, and they are certainly better on their home court. Domantas Sabonis is a great addition for Sacramento. Look for Sacramento to win and cover here. Take the Kings. |
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02-25-22 | Heat -5.5 v. Knicks | 115-100 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Miami* The New York Knicks are in a bad spot as far as team chemistry and motivation right now. Kemba Walker will miss the rest of the season. We don't know how much longer Thibodeau will be the head coach here. The team seems to be heading in the wrong direction quickly. Miami got the break to rest up and get a little healthier. The Heat have Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Kyle Lowry all healthy and ready to go. The Heat are very good defensively with this roster, and they take good care of the basketball as well. Fundamentally, this is a mismatch between these two teams. I like the Heat to take care of business here. Take Miami. |
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02-02-22 | Grizzlies -3.5 v. Knicks | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Grizzlies* The Memphis Grizzlies are coming off an overtime loss in Philadelphia. That was a game they probably should have won. They had a day off to think about it and now they try to get back on track against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden. Good teams coming off a loss has been a good angle in the NBA for quite a while now. Ja Morant is the leader of this Memphis team, and I definitely consider Morant and the Grizzlies to be an on the rise franchise. Memphis is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 coming off a straight up loss. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 coming off an ATS loss. The Knicks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a road win percentage of 60% or higher. A combined 14-0 angle. The Knicks are a mediocre team with a much lower upside than the Grizzlies. I think we get a max effort game from Memphis here. Take Memphis. |
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01-28-22 | Wolves +8.5 v. Suns | 124-134 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Minnesota* Minnesota is a much improved team. The Timberwolves have been feisty against top teams all season. Phoenix is a really good team, but the market appears to be overvaluing them especially in this situation. The Suns are coming off back to back wins over the Jazz in massive games that were close until the end. Phoenix is banged up right now. DeAndre Ayton is out of the lineup. Jae Crowder is out of the lineup. Javale McGee is out of the lineup. Cam Payne is questionable for this game as well. Phoenix hasn't been covering as home favorites, and this is a big spread against a quality Minnesota team. I'll take the points here. Take Minnesota. |
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01-12-22 | Mavs -2.5 v. Knicks | 85-108 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Dallas* The Dallas Mavericks rank first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games. Dallas is unbeaten since Luka Doncic came back in the lineup on January 2nd. That includes blowout wins over both Golden State and Chicago. This Mavericks team has a high upside and right now they are playing extremely well. The New York Knicks have been much more inconsistent of late. The Knicks were blown away by the Celtics, Thunder, and Raptors in three of their last five games. New York's offense has been struggling, and against this Mavericks defense I'm not sure they can be very efficient here either. I'll take the small road favorite playing at this level. Take Dallas. |
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12-31-21 | Clippers v. Raptors -6.5 | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Raptors* The Clippers are down both superstars. Kawhi Leonard has been out long term, but Paul George had been the steadying force for Los Angeles. George was averaging 25 points per game this year, but he is out with an injury now. Reggie Jackson is questionable here and is said to be having conditioning problems so he is less than 100 percent no matter what. The Clippers had gotten solid contributions from Brandon Boston Jr. and Ivica Zubac, but of them are out due to COVID 19 protocols now. Toronto has been severely shorthanded, but the Raptors have gotten their team back now. Pascal Siakim, Scottie Barnes, Fred Van Vleet, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr. are all ready to go. The Raptors aren't a great team, but they are better than their record. This version of the Clippers is a very weak team. This is a great opportunity for the Raptors to get back on track. Take Toronto. |
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12-29-21 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -5.5 | 99-104 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Grizzlies* The Los Angeles Lakers aren't playing good basketball right now. The Lakers without Anthony Davis are hurting quite a bit. Additionally, they are very short on depth with guys like Reaves, Bazemore, and Nunn out. The Lakers are 3-12 ATS against teams with a winning record this year. The Grizzlies are a bit shorthanded as well, but they are a deeper team. Memphis also has their star Ja Morant back. Morant is playing at a really high level right now. LeBron has been playing excellently and yet their team isn't having success. LeBron is logging massive minutes too. The Lakers had to push hard to get a win in Houston last night against a bad Rockets team. I don't think they'll be on their "A game" tonight. Take Memphis. |
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12-17-21 | Bucks -2 v. Pelicans | 112-116 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Bucks* The Milwaukee Bucks are the much superior team even without Giannis. The Bucks are one of the deepest teams in the NBA. New Orleans is coming off a ridiculous buzzer beating win over Oklahoma City on the road. Milwaukee took care of business against Indiana. The Pelicans are just 4-9 at home so far this year. New Orleans relies heavily on offensive rebounding, but the Bucks are a good defensive rebounding team even without Giannis. Milwaukee is the better coached team who I trust to show up on a game by game basis. The Pelicans have a couple nice wins, but they haven't consistently performed well. Take Milwaukee here. |
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12-08-21 | Bulls v. Cavs -2.5 | 92-115 | Win | 100 | 16 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Cavs* The Cleveland Cavs catch the Chicago Bulls at the right time here. The Bulls are shorthanded due to injuries and illnesses. Chicago is a very good team this year, but they are going to be at much less than full strength here. Demar DeRozan has scored at least 28 points in each of the last four games for the Bulls. He has been one of the biggest surprises in the NBA this year. He will miss this game along with Coby White due to COVID. Alex Caruso is also out. These three guys rank as the top three players in defensive efficiency ratings for the Bulls on the season too (among those averaging 15 minutes per game or more). The Cavs have a great frontcourt led by Mobley. Markannen should be anxious to play against his old team as well. Cleveland has been a covering machine this season. They are coming off a couple tough losses, and they should be excited to try to bounce back here against a Bulls team that comes into this one banged up badly. Take Cleveland. |
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12-06-21 | Grizzlies v. Heat -4.5 | 105-90 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Heat* The Memphis Grizzlies will be without Ja Morant here. They've done well without him so far, but he is clearly a huge loss for this team. Kyle Anderson is out as well and Brandon Clarke is doubtful here also. Jimmy Butler is expected to return for the Heat tonight. With Morant out and Butler likely back in, the Heat have the much more talented team. Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro should play a big role from the outside in this game. Miami is the best team Memphis has had to play without Morant. The Grizzlies have to be feeling pretty good about themselves with their win streak. Miami has played subpar of late, and I think they circle the wagons here. Take Miami. |
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12-01-21 | Hawks +1.5 v. Pacers | 114-111 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on the Hawks* The Atlanta Hawks are the team with the much higher upside of these two teams. Atlanta has underachieved so far this season. The Hawks have won 7 of their last 8 games including winning their last two road games. Indiana is without Justin Holiday and Myles Turner is questionable with an illness. Holiday has been a nice contributor for the Pacers, and Turner is arguably the team's most important player. I like this bet even if Turner does play, but if he doesn't play this wager holds even more value. Trae Young is a really streaky scorer, and he has been on fire. I don't see anyone on the Pacers roster that matches up well defensively against him. Take Atlanta. |
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11-22-21 | Grizzlies +11 v. Jazz | 119-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Grizzlies* The Memphis Grizzlies were absolutely blown out by the Minnesota Timberwolves in their last game. Memphis' coach let the team know he wasn't impressed with their effort in that contest. Memphis does have a lot of guys on their team that are battlers and I would expect them to fight back in this spot. The Grizzlies are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 following a double digit loss. Memphis is playing against the Jazz who eliminated them from the playoffs last year. If they can't get up for a game like this- who could get they get up for playing? In general in the NBA bounce back systems do very well ATS especially following massive blowouts. We're getting a few too many points because of the recency of both teams. Take Memphis. |
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11-01-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -5.5 | 111-118 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Hawks* The Atlanta Hawks were beaten badly by the Washington Wizards just a few days ago. Washington coasted to an 11 point win in a game where Atlanta was favored by four points in Washington. Here's a chance less than a week later for Atlanta to get revenge. These quick revenge games have done well in the NBA, especially early in the season. The Hawks still have a very high upside. They have been inconsistent so far this year, but I'm still high on this team overall. They finished last year well and on paper this year's team is better than a year ago. Look for a strong effort in a good situational spot for the Hawks here. Take Atlanta. |
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10-29-21 | Clippers v. Blazers -3 | 92-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Blazers* The LA Clippers throttled the Blazers on Monday night. The Clippers won 116-86. Portland turned the ball over 30 times. That is just unreal for an NBA team. Portland's players and the coaching staff talked in depth about how much that loss bothered them. What's the good news? They get a chance for revenge in the same week. This time it will be in Portland too, where the Blazers have a big home court advantage. The Clippers are without Kawhi Leonard. They are still a talented team, but their upside is much lower. Portland is coming off an impressive beatdown of the Memphis Grizzlies. Portland's defense looks much better so far this year under Chauncey Billups. A chance for quick revenge against a shorthanded Clippers team is an opportunity Portland badly wants to take advantage of. Lay the points here. Take Portland. |
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10-21-21 | Bucks v. Heat -1.5 | 95-137 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play on Miami* The Miami Heat host the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. I like the additions Miami made in the offseason. Kyle Lowry and P.J. Tucker are excellent additions to the team. The Bucks will be playing without Brook Lopez and Jrue Holiday in this one. Holiday is an elite defender and the Bucks will miss him quite a bit. Milwaukee is coming off a big win over the Nets. Miami is in their season opener here. The Heat are healthier and I like the spot for them. Take Miami. |
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10-20-21 | Bulls -5 v. Pistons | 94-88 | Win | 100 | 17 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Opening Night Cash* The Chicago Bulls have gotten much better in the offseason. The Bulls added DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic. Both of those guys are great scoring options to help out Zach LaVine. Lonzo Ball is a solid point guard for this group as well. Detroit's Cade Cunningham will be a lot of fun to watch, but he isn't expected to play in this game. The Pistons just don't have the top end talent to match the Bulls. Detroit will have one of the worst records in basketball this year. Their best player is likely to be Cade Cunningham, and he'll be on the sidelines here. Chicago has too much firepower and I like them to cover the spread here. Take the Bulls. |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4 | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Milwaukee Bucks* The Phoenix Suns won the first two games at home in this series. Now, it is the Bucks turn to answer. Milwaukee saw some terrible shooting from Middleton and Holiday last game really slow them down. The Bucks are very capable of winning with decent outside shooting, and they have shown to shoot better at home through the season. Phoenix is a good team and they deserve credit for their playoff performances. They have a good shot at winning the series. Still, I don't think it will be as easy as it has looked so far in this series. Milwaukee controls the paint in the series and the Suns aren't going to shoot 20/40 from 3 point range every game like they did last game. Milwaukee has been a great team to back following a loss in the past couple seasons. The Bucks are up against it here. They have to win this game. It means a whole lot more to them than the Suns. Phoenix has a tremendous home court advantage, but now they take the show on the road. Giannis looks healthy and he should have another big game. I think the Bucks make this a tighter series. Take Milwaukee. |
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06-13-21 | Suns -3 v. Nuggets | 125-118 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Suns* The Phoenix Suns are a really bad matchup for the Denver Nuggets in their current state. Murray is badly missed by the Nuggets because of the Suns strength in the backcourt. Chris Paul has been amazing in this series. Paul is looking far healthier, and he is scoring and facilitating at a great level right now. How much more can Jokic do? He put up a triple double in Game 3 and his team was still beaten by 14 points. The Nuggets just don't have enough weapons right now. Porter Jr. has a minor back injury that is clearly hurting him on both ends of the floor. The Nuggets backcourt simply isn't good enough now. No game in this series has been closer than 14 points. Denver had its circle the wagons game last time out, and they could do no better than losing by 14. No team has come back from 3-0 to win a series. The Nuggets know they are done here. Could they show pride and pick up a win? It is certainly possible, but it would have to happen thanks to the Suns dropping their level of play drastically. The best the Suns have to offer right now is far better than the best the Nuggets have to offer. Take Phoenix. |
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06-08-21 | Clippers v. Jazz -3.5 | 109-112 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Jazz* Extra rest has typically been a good thing in the NBA playoffs. While there is always a debate between rest or rust in these spots, the ATS angles show that indeed the teams who have been resting recently are at an advantage. Home favorites of 12.5 points or less who have had 4 days or more between their playoff games are 100-62 (61.7% ATS) since 2006. Utah fits that angle for this game. The LA Clippers had to expend a bunch of energy in their 7 game series against the Mavericks. The Clippers were down 2-0 and 3-2 and scratched and claw to pick up the series win. They now play just two days later in Utah against the top seed in the Western Conference. The Clippers upside is very high and they have a very real chance in the series, but this is a bad spot for them. The Jazz have a big home court advantage. Utah announced that this game will be played with 100% capacity so the fans will be back and as loud as ever. The game being at altitude is another big perk for the home team. Lay the points here. Take Utah. |
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05-27-21 | Bucks v. Heat +2 | 113-84 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Miami Heat* The Milwaukee Bucks will likely win this series, but I don't expect Miami to go down without a fight. Erik Spoelstra is an underrated head coach. In fact, Spoelstra is an impressive 80-60-1 ATS in the NBA playoffs. What about when his team has been beaten down in the previous game? Spoelstra's teams are 18-5 ATS after a loss by more than 10 points in their previous game. NBA teams in general have been good bets after getting blown out in the playoffs. Teams who lost by 25 points or more in the previous game are at 60% ATS (57-38) in the last 95 contests. Miami has to have this game, and they know it. While Milwaukee has the deeper team, I think Miami has the coaching advantage. Milwaukee is 31-34 ATS with Mike Budenholzer as head coach. Milwaukee has been a relatively weak road team this year. Jimmy Butler has played poorly in the first two games, but I expect better from him here. Miami should put everything into this game. They have proven they are a tough matchup for the Bucks in the past couple years. I'll take the desperate team down 0-2 and at home. Take Miami. |
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04-21-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers +1.5 | 106-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Blazers* The Portland Blazers are coming off a 1 point loss at home to the Clippers. Portland played without Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic in that game. Both of those key players are expected back for the Blazers tonight. This is a massive game for Portland. They badly need to stay in the top six in the Western Conference. Dallas, Memphis, and Golden State are capable of making a run to pass them. Much has also been made of the Blazers struggles against top teams in recent weeks, and here is a chance for them to knock off a very highly rated team. Denver limps into this game. The Nuggets are coming off a 2 OT win over Memphis where it took a couple miracle comebacks to win that game. Jamal Murray is out the rest of the year with a knee injury. Monte Morris is also now injured which really leaves Denver shorthanded in the backcourt. Portland played Denver very close to the finish in Denver in February and that was without C.J. McCollum. The Blazers are healthier now and Denver is shorthanded. A good bounce back spot for Portland. |
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03-31-21 | Knicks -3.5 v. Wolves | 101-102 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on the New York Knicks* The New York Knicks are coming off a disappointing 98-88 to the Miami Heat. The Knicks have been great at bouncing back from losses this year. New York is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 following a straight up loss. This time around they just happen to be playing an absolutely terrible Minnesota Timberwolves team. Minnesota played Brooklyn close in their last game, but that type of performance has been the exception and not the rule. The Timberwolves are at home against a team with a losing record on the road here, but is that even a good thing for them? Minnesota is 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. They are 2-6 in their last 8 games as a home underdog. They are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 following an ATS win. There isn't anything for the Timberwolves to be playing for at this point other than pride. The Knicks are in a playoff race. Also, Tom Thibodeau gets to coach against his old team here. The Knicks have plenty of reasons to be highly motivated. Take New York. |
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03-26-21 | Nuggets -2 v. Pelicans | 113-108 | Win | 100 | 17 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Denver* The New Orleans Pelicans are about as inconsistent as a team could possibly be. New Orleans has recent wins over Utah, the LA Clippers, and at Denver. They also have losses at home to Minnesota (by 30), home against Miami (by 10), and home against Chicago (by 4). Lonzo Ball is questionable in this game and if he misses this one that is a pretty big loss for the Pelicans because he is a solid floor general. The Pelicans just went to Denver and won 113-108 five days ago. Denver is now coming off a 24 point embarrassing loss at Toronto. The Nuggets should want revenge here, and they are in a bounce back spot following that performance against Toronto. Denver is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss by 10 points or more. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after giving up 125 points or more. Take Denver. |
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02-12-21 | Pistons +8 v. Celtics | 108-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Detroit* The Detroit Pistons are coming off a bad performance last night against the Pacers. The Pacers were in a good spot though. The Pacers needed that win badly after several losses in a row. Boston is coming off a win over Toronto last night. The Celtics need to keep winning, but they don't have to win by margin and this is a pretty big spread. Since Brad Stevens has been the Celtics head coach, the Celtics have been bad at covering big numbers against bad teams. How bad? The Celtics are 25-46 ATS (35.2%) when laying 8 points or more against a team with a win percentage of 45% or lower. That system applies to this contest. The Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 following a double digit home loss. Grab the points. Take Detroit. |
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01-13-21 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Clippers | 106-111 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Pelicans* The New Orleans Pelicans haven't looked good in their last couple games. New Orleans needs to circle the wagons here. The Pelicans do have a pretty high upside. New Orleans has lost three straight games against the spread, and I think that has given us a good price in this game. The LA Clippers have played down to competition and struggled with getting margin all season. The Clippers lost at home to the Spurs already this year. They also narrowly beat the Bulls. The New Orleans Pelicans aren't a team I'll want to lay points with a lot this year, but taking the points in spots that are favorable for them is something I'll look to do. Take New Orleans here. |
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01-06-21 | Bulls v. Kings -6.5 | 124-128 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Kings* The Sacramento Kings are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Golden State Warriors. Chicago is coming off a stunning win over Portland on the road. The Bulls are very shorthanded right now due to COVID issues and injuries. This is a Bulls team that is clearly playing way above the level we should expect to see in future weeks and months from them. They are not this good. Chicago should come crashing down to earth again soon. The Bulls have been very busy of late and being shorthanded they are due for a tired effort game soon. The Kings might get Halliburton back for this game. He has been a nice spark for this team. The Kings are the far more talented team even if he doesn't play here. Take the Kings. |
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12-30-20 | Hornets +8 v. Mavs | 118-99 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Charlotte* The Charlotte Hornets are getting quite a few points tonight against the Dallas Mavericks, and I'm going to grab the points. Dallas has been excellent as an underdog with Carlisle as their coach, but they haven't been good laying points. Dallas as a home favorite of 5.5 points or more in a non-division game is 124-159 ATS (43.8%) since 2005. The Mavericks are coming off an epic blowout of the LA Clippers in their last game, and they have to be feeling pretty good about themselves. Dallas plays Miami in their next game and one would think that is a game they are looking forward to more than this one. Gordon Hayward should help make this Charlotte team slightly more competitive. Hayward is a good fit for this offense. In their games so far this year, Charlotte has been pretty good. They even upset the Brooklyn Nets in their last game. Grab the points here. Take Charlotte. |
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09-17-20 | Heat v. Celtics -2.5 | 106-101 | Loss | -102 | 16 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Boston Celtics and Miami Heat played a classic game one in the Eastern Conference Finals. Miami ended up coming from behind to win in overtime thanks to some heroics from Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler. These are two very good teams, and they are both really well-coached. I do still believe the Celtics have a slightly better roster than the Heat. Boston can't afford to get down 2-0 here, so this is a critical game to their hopes in this series. Brad Stevens has been a good coach to back ATS in the playoffs. That is especially the case in the short favorite role. As anything from a 1 point underdog to a 7.5 point favorite against a team with a win percentage of 50%-70% in the regular season- Stevens teams are a whopping 21-3 ATS in their last 24 in the playoffs. The Celtics have a bunch of scoring options and I like their perimeter defense led by Marcus Smart. Look for Boston to bounce back and even up the series. Take Boston. |
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09-08-20 | Heat -2.5 v. Bucks | 103-94 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Miami* The Miami Heat have another chance to finish off this series, and I think they'll take care of business here. Milwaukee hasn't been the same team of late, and now Giannis is injured and is highly questionable for this game. He has sprained his ankle twice in the last few days, and even if he does play he won't be even close to his usual self. Milwaukee rose up and had a good game last time out. It took Middleton going crazy to win in OT for the Bucks. Miami also dropped their level of play quite a bit in game four, and I don't think they will do the same here. Jimmy Butler is great and he's a major matchup problem for the Bucks. Goran Dragic is extremely underrated by many as well. The Heat have a deep team and they are excellent on the defensive end. Milwaukee got their win to avoid being swept, but I think Miami finishes them off here. Take Miami. |
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09-05-20 | Raptors v. Celtics +1 | 100-93 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 22 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Celtics* The Boston Celtics match up well with the Toronto Raptors. Boston leads the season series 5-2. It hasn't been a fluke either. Four of the five wins for the Celtics/ were by six points or more. Three of the five wins have come by 16 points or more for Boston. The Celtics have good defenders on the Raptors key scorers, and they have been able to slow down the Raptors offense much better than just about anyone else. I like this play better since Boston lost game three in such heartbreaking fashion. Boston players were extremely upset that they let that game slip away after the contest. The Raptors made a great play at the buzzer to win, but the Celtics did look like the better team for most of that game as well. I think we'll see a highly motivated Celtics team show up here, and I don't think the Celtics stars have played their best basketball yet in this series. Boston is 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 following a loss. The Celtics are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 as an underdog. The Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against Toronto. I think Boston takes a 3-1 series lead after a win here. Take Boston. |
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08-31-20 | Heat +5.5 v. Bucks | 115-104 | Win | 100 | 17 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Miami* The Miami Heat are a dangerous team. Jimmy Butler gives them a star, but the rest of the team is far better than most people realize. Goran Dragic is a very solid point guard who can give Milwaukee real trouble in this series, especially with Eric Bledsoe banged up. Duncan Robinson is a complete player who shoots 44.6% from long range. The Heat bench is deep as well. Miami won outright in two of the three meetings between these two teams this year. The other game (in the bubble) Miami led by 20 points before losing after an ugly fourth quarter. The Heat have proven they play the Bucks tough. Milwaukee didn't have a very easy time with the Magic in the first round, and this is a huge step up in class to the Heat in round two. I think Erik Spoelstra is a really good coach. He has been excellent at getting his team ready for big games. He has been especially good when given a lot of team to prepare. The Heat are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games with at least 3 days between games. I expect a hard fought series here. Grab the points with the underdog. Take Miami. |
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08-23-20 | Celtics -7.5 v. 76ers | 110-106 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Celtics ATS* The Philadelphia 76ers had a great opportunity to beat Boston in game three. They blew their chance. Can the 76ers get off the mat down 3-0? I don't think they can. Brett Brown is badly outcoached here by Brad Stevens. The 76ers didn't even have practice on Saturday. Nobody has come back from a 3-0 deficit in the NBA, and the 76ers know they won't be the first. Boston is the much deeper team, and the Celtics should play better than they did in game 3. Boston blew away the 76ers in game two, and I think we could see that again here. The 76ers don't have any real reason to put in a big effort here, and Brown is about to lose his job. I don't think they show much pride in this spot. The Celtics are 22-1 ATS in Stevens' last 23 games in the playoffs as either favorites or underdogs of 2.5 points or less. Take Boston. |
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08-21-20 | Celtics -5 v. 76ers | 102-94 | Win | 100 | 15 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Philadelphia 76ers can't win this series without Ben Simmons. They know it now, and I don't think the 76ers have the best team chemistry now either. Brett Brown will likely be gone at the end of the season, and I don't think the players respect him very much. Brown has looked completely outmatched in playoff series' many times now. Brad Stevens is an excellent coach and he has found ways to take advantage of this 76ers team without Ben Simmons. The pick and roll has been great for the Celtics. Shake Milton has been a nice player for the 76ers this year, but Milton's defense is dreadful. He has been exposed defensively in this series, and I expect that to continue. The Celtics are the much deeper team, and that depth is extremely hard for the 76ers to match when Simmons is out. The 76ers have been horrible away from home all year. I don't see that trend ending for this one. I'll lay the points here. Take Boston. |
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08-18-20 | Magic v. Bucks -12 | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Bucks* The Orlando Magic are banged up heading into the postseason. Jonathan Isaac was really an important part of this team down the stretch and he is out for the year with an injury. Michael Carter-Williams is out with an injury. Mo Bamba is out for the year as well. Aaron Gordon is questionable for this game. If he plays he will be less than 100 percent. The Milwaukee Bucks didn't play very well down the stretch in the bubble, but what did they have to play for? They didn't have to play well in that stretch, but now is their time to get things back together. The Magic injuries have turned them into a team without much depth at all, and that is a problem against a Milwaukee team that is extremely deep. Giannis is a matchup problem for the Magic. Orlando will likely find it difficult to get open looks from long range against the Bucks as well. Orlando has been very streaky from 3 on the year, but they are a far below average team on the whole from long range. Big favorites have done well early in the playoffs in the last decade. The Bucks are a far superior team, and they come in the much healthier team as well. Take Milwaukee. |
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08-17-20 | 76ers v. Celtics -5.5 | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Playoff System SMASHER* The Philadelphia 76ers are hurt significantly by Ben Simmons being out due to an injury. He is a matchup problem for the Celtics when he is on the floor. Brett Brown is a coach I'm not very high on. Brown hasn't been able to matchup well with top coaches in the NBA playoffs in the past. He'll be up against one of the best in the business in Brad Stevens here. Stevens consistently puts his teams in the best possible position to succeed, and I can't say the same about Brown. The Celtics depth is impressive, and the 76ers can't match that depth. Boston is the better defensive team as well. Under Brad Stevens- the Celtics are 19-1 ATS in the playoffs when they are playing a team with a win percentage of 51-70 percent and are either underdogs of 2.5 points or less or favorites of 7.5 points or less. This one fits the system. Take Boston. |
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08-15-20 | Grizzlies +6 v. Blazers | 122-126 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Grizzlies ATS* The Portland Blazers have been leaning extremely heavily on their starters to play a ton of minutes lately. They don't come into this game very fresh at all. Damian Lillard is amazing, but he's being forced to do too much right now. Ray McCollum is banged up and not himself right now. The Blazers defense has been miserable at the end of the regular season, and that really keeps opponents in the game. Portland has allowed 1.231 points per possession in their last four games. Portland has played a bunch of close games of late. Portland has to win only once in this series and the Grizzlies would have to win twice. If Memphis is ahead in the second half, we might see Terry Stotts play for the next game. Additionally, Portland needed OT to beat Memphis in the bubble recently, and the Grizzlies won easily in the earlier meeting between these two this year. I'll take the generous amount of points here. Take Memphis. |
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08-13-20 | Blazers v. Nets +10 | 134-133 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA ATS Play of the Day* The Portland Blazers need to win this game, but too high of a point spread has been placed on them because of that. The public is betting on Portland in large numbers. Portland will probably win the game, but I'll take the points here with the underdog. Portland plays after the two teams they are battling for a playoff spot against. If they are already locked into their spot, they would likely be far less likely to play their starters for a bunch of minutes. C.J. McCollum is hurting a lot, and their starters have played a lot of minutes lately. The Nets come into this game in good form. They have won five of their last six games. The Blazers haven't won a single game in the bubble by more than 10 points. Too many points here. Take Brooklyn. |
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08-01-20 | Jazz v. Thunder -1.5 | 94-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Thunder* The Utah Jazz have plenty of issues right now. Bogdanovic is the team's second leading scorer and the is out with an injury. The Jazz don't really have many good backup scoring options to fill this role. Jordan Clarkson put up 23 points last game, but he hasn't shown himself to be reliable for anything like that on a regular basis. The team has been having team chemistry issues as well with Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell. Utah was very fortunate to beat New Orleans in their first game back on Thursday night. The Pelicans were poorly coached in that game, and the youngsters from New Orleans handed away that game in the fourth quarter. Oklahoma City is a much more veteran team than New Orleans, and the Thunder have already shown they can beat the Jazz. In fact, the Thunder have beaten Utah twice this year and both of those games were in Salt Lake City. I don't think the Thunder will fold like New Orleans did late in the game. Oklahoma City matches up well with Utah because of their length and speed. The Thunder are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Utah. Take Oklahoma City. |
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07-30-20 | Jazz v. Pelicans -2.5 | 106-104 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on the Pelicans* The New Orleans Pelicans have a lot more to play for in this game. New Orleans can't afford to be losing games here. Utah can lose games and still get in the playoffs. With this strange set up down in the NBA bubble, I do think that situational spots will matter a lot. The Pelicans were playing great basketball in their exhibitions the last few days. They didn't lose a game. Zion Williamson is a game time decision. Williamson playing would be a huge boost to the team, but I do think they have a good chance of winning and covering even if he does sit out this game. Utah's team chemistry is a question mark right now with Gobert and Mitchell feuding. They also don't have 3 point star Bojan Bogdonavic who is injured. The team with more to play for laying the short number is my play here. Take New Orleans. |
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03-06-20 | Blazers -3 v. Suns | 117-127 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Friday BEST Bet* The Phoenix Suns are beat up right now. They are without Oubre Jr. and Ayton is unlikely to play as well. Phoenix was on a nice run when they were healthy, but the market hasn't adjusted enough to these injuries. Portland is pushing hard for the playoffs, and Damian Lillard is back. Lillard is the clear leader for this team, and Portland is now a dangerous team who nobody would want to see in the playoffs. This is a good spot for Portland to try to make up some ground on those in front of them in the standings. Take Portland. |
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03-04-20 | Thunder -8 v. Pistons | 114-107 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Thunder* The Detroit Pistons are badly shorthanded at this point. Detroit is without Blake Griffin, Derrick Rose, and Luke Kennard. Bruce Brown is listed as doubtful and Brandon Knight is questionable with an injury tonight. Christian Wood is banged up, but will likely try to play. Oklahoma City has been excellent at bouncing back this year, and they have been great on the road. The Thunder are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 road games. They are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 on no rest. The Thunder are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 vs. a team with a losing record. Detroit is 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games. They are coming off a long road trip and the first game back can be a difficult spot. Take Oklahoma City. |
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02-28-20 | Nets -2 v. Hawks | 118-141 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Nets* The Brooklyn Nets are coming off two disappointing losses in a row. Brooklyn needs to get things put back together to hold their position in the playoff standings. The Nets now take on a Hawks team that has played poorly overall this year against teams with a losing record on the year. Atlanta has significant injury problems. The Hawks are expected to be without DeAndre Bembry and Clint Capela here. Trae Young is a question mark due to an illness. Dedmon will miss this game. Huerter is playing through pain as well. The Nets defense is much better than the Hawks. They should come into this game with a big effort after consecutive poor performances. Take Brooklyn. |
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02-26-20 | Nets -2.5 v. Wizards | 106-110 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Nets* The Brooklyn Nets lost to the Washington Wizards as a favorite earlier this month. Brooklyn is the better team here. The Nets are playing with revenge. Washington is also coming off an overtime heartbreaking loss to the Milwaukee Bucks. Bradley Beal has put up more than 50 points in back to back. Beal is a great player, but it will be hard to continue producing at this level. The sharp money is clearly on the Nets here. While the bets are 50/50, the money is 70% on the Nets. Brooklyn is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 following a loss. They are coming off a tight loss to the Magic. I expect a strong effort from the Nets tonight so I'll lay the short number. Take Brooklyn. |
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02-25-20 | Thunder -6.5 v. Bulls | 124-122 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Thunder* The Oklahoma City Thunder have impressed me all year long. Chris Paul has been a perfect fit for this team. He has really mentored the youngsters on this team. The chemistry on this team has been great. The Bulls had hope coming into the season, but things weren't going very well to begin with. It has gotten much worse as they have suffered all sorts of injuries as well. They are expected to be without Markannen, Dunn, Porter Jr., Carter, and Valentine. Chicago is extremely thin right now. Oklahoma City is a whopping 12-1 straight up in their last 13. They are a stunning 13-0 ATS in their last 13 road games. Chicago is 18-40 ATS in their last 58 home games. The Bulls are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 as a home underdog. Take Oklahoma City. |
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02-22-20 | Suns -2.5 v. Bulls | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Chicago Bulls are a badly banged up group. The Bulls are expected to be without Wendell Carter, Lauri Markkanen, Denzel Valentine, Otto Porter Jr., and Kris Dunn today. Both DeAndre Ayton and Dario Saric are listed as probable for the Suns. The Bulls really don't have anyone down low to slow down Ayton, and that should be a key in this game. The Bulls have gone 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing record. Chicago is 6-21 ATS in their last 27 as a home underdog. The short handed Bulls looked terrible in their home loss to the Hornets. I think the Suns can take advantage of them here as well. Take Phoenix. |
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02-09-20 | Grizzlies -1.5 v. Wizards | 106-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Grizzlies* The Memphis Grizzlies have been playing good basketball in recent weeks. Memphis is coming off a bad showing in their last game. The Grizzlies have been good at bouncing back from a recent loss. Memphis is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 following a loss. Memphis is also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss by 10 points or more. The Washington Wizards are coming off a big win. Washington isn't a consistent team though. Washington is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 following a win. Washington is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 on Sunday. Memphis has something to play for while the Wizards don't. A good bounce back spot. Take the Grizzlies. |
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02-07-20 | Heat +1 v. Kings | 97-105 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Miami Heat are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 following an ATS loss. Miami has been an extremely proud team that bounces back well after a loss this year, and they have a good chance of bouncing back again here. They lost to the Clippers in their last game, but now they take on a Kings team that is only 2-7 ATS in their last 9 following a win. Sacramento is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Kings were expected to be better than they are this year. Instead, they will miss the playoffs yet again this year. This is a team with talent, but their chemistry hasn't been good, and Luke Walton hasn't worked out very well here at least so far. Though Butler likely won't play here, the Heat have a lot of depth and the situational spot is a strong one. Take Miami. |
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01-27-20 | Spurs -1.5 v. Bulls | 109-110 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Spurs* The Chicago Bulls have had a bunch of trouble covering the spread at home. Chicago is 17-36 ATS in their last 53 home games. The Bulls are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 as a home underdog. They are also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 following a win. The Spurs have improved after starting the season off playing some really bad basketball. San Antonio has a chance to make a run to get to the playoffs still, and this is the type of game they need to win. The Spurs are clearly the healthier team here. The Bulls are without Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter Jr., and Wendell Carter Jr. That is three very important players to this Bulls team sitting out. I'll lay the short price with the Spurs here. Take San Antonio. |
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01-24-20 | Raptors -7.5 v. Knicks | 118-112 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Friday Fast Cash* The New York Knicks are without RJ Barrett due to an injury. New York wasn't good with him, and he is clearly a big loss. Toronto was badly banged up for a long time. The Raptors now are healthy. Toronto is the healthier team of the two in this contest. Since Toronto did struggle without their best players, I believe they are still undervalued now. The Raptors have looked great on offense in recent games, and the Knicks are unlikely to be able to keep up. The Knicks are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games against a team with a winning record. Look for Toronto to continue their recent strong play and win and cover here. Take the Raptors. |
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12-18-19 | Celtics -1.5 v. Mavs | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 21 h 3 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA ATS Game of the Week* The Boston Celtics have lost their last two games. Boston hasn't lost three straight games all year. Brad Stevens is a top three coach in the NBA, and his teams have been excellent on the road. The Celtics are 107-66 ATS in their last 173 road games as a favorite of 2.5 or less or an underdog. Boston has had a long break between games and had plenty of time to think about their two straight disappointing losses. Many times in the NBA we see a team without their star player pull off a great performance in game one of their time without that key player. That happened for the Mavericks without Luka Doncic in Milwaukee on Monday night. If they win that first game in stunning fashion like Dallas did, I like to look to fade that team in game two without their superstar. Reality often sets in after the initial burst that players get. The Celtics have a deeper team than the Mavericks. Dallas would have had the best player on the floor in Doncic, but without him they take a big hit. Dallas has already been shaky against quality teams at home this year. Boston is in a nice bounce back spot here. Take Boston. |
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12-11-19 | Lakers -6.5 v. Magic | 96-87 | Win | 100 | 17 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Lakers ATS* The Los Angeles Lakers are firing on all cylinders right now. The Lakers haven't played since Sunday, so they are well rested for this matchup. The Lakers are 11-1 on the road this year. They have played their best basketball away from Staples Center. Anthony Davis has been a tremendous second option (sometimes the first option) to pair with LeBron James. No team in the NBA can match the one-two punch of James and Davis. The Lakers bench isn't great, but it has been better than expected. The Lakers have been far better than expected on defense this year. The Orlando Magic haven't done well when stepping up in class. Orlando is without star big man Nikola Vucevic and that has hurt them a lot. They were beaten soundly by the Raptors at home recently. They were crushed by the Bucks earlier this year. They were beaten at home by the Pacers as well. Orlando can hold their own against mediocre or weak teams right now, but they aren't good enough when playing the best teams on their schedule. Take the Lakers. |
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12-06-19 | Wizards v. Heat -9.5 | 103-112 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Miami Heat are coming off an ugly loss to the Boston Celtics on Wednesday. Miami has been excellent at bouncing back from losses. They are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 following a loss. Washington is one of the worst teams in the league and they are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. They are also on the second end of a back to back. Washington picked up a surprising win over the 76ers last night. They got 25 points from Bertans and 27 points from Hachimura in that win. I don't see Washington repeating that performance. Washington is 12-29-1 ATS in their last 42 road games against a team with a winning record. Miami is a good team who is unbeaten at home this year. Washington has drastic splits. They are much better on their home court. Miami is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 as a home favorite. The Heat are also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 following a loss by 10 points or more. Miami is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing road record. A 20-0 angle. Take Miami. |
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