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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-18-19 | Wolves v. Jazz -9.5 | 112-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Jazz* The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a tough spot here. Minnesota is playing their 6th game in 9 days here. In today's NBA that is pretty rare. The Timberwolves aren't a particularly deep team, which makes that even tougher for them. Andrew Wiggins is doubtful for this game. Without Wiggins, they were beaten by 21 points at home against Washington and by 20 points at home against Houston. Wiggins has been excellent this year, and if they are without him it is a big loss. Utah is coming off a loss a few days ago at Memphis. The Jazz have been much better to back at home coming off a loss. Utah is underrated by many in the marketplace now since they have gone 4-8 ATS on the season. I do think this is still one of the best teams in the Western Conference. The Jazz defense is on another level than the Minnesota defense. Take Utah. |
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11-13-19 | Wizards +8.5 v. Celtics | 133-140 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA System Play CRUSHER* Brad Stevens is an excellent coach. I consider him a top five coach in the NBA. Still, his teams have been good fades as big favorites against weak teams. The Celtics tend to not run up the score. The Celtics are 12-33-1 ATS under Brad Stevens as favorites of 8.5 points or more against teams with a winning percentage of less than 40%. That's a 26.7% ATS cover rate. Washington fits this system as a fade of the Celtics as a favorite here. Washington hasn't played since Friday night, so they are extremely rested and they should be ready to go here. Boston is without Gordon Hayward after he suffered another really tough injury. Daniel Theis is also listed as doubtful and he has helped this team a lot this season. Take Washington. |
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11-06-19 | Bucks +1 v. Clippers | 129-124 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Bucks* The Los Angeles Clippers haven't gotten Paul George back from injury yet. Kawhi Leonard has been dominant so far this year, but he will sit this game out (load management). In the game Leonard sat out against Utah, the Clippers put up a very weak performance. Without Leonard and George, this team is actually slightly weaker than a year ago. Milwaukee is the best team in the Eastern Conference. They have the best player in the Eastern Conference in The Greek Freak as well. Giannis should have a big game here against the Clippers without their superstars. I think the Clippers are getting too much respect from the oddsmakers given the fact that they will be without their best two players on Wednesday. Take Milwaukee. |
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11-01-19 | Bucks -4.5 v. Magic | 123-91 | Win | 100 | 17 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Bucks have excelled when bouncing back from a loss. They are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight up loss. Milwaukee is a well coached team with solid depth and a superstar in Giannis. Milwaukee is a perfect 12-0 ATS in their last 12 games when coming off a game with an ATS margin of -9 or worse. That system fits this game after the Bucks blew their halftime lead in a loss against Boston in their last game. Orlando is a middle of the road team who has played a weak schedule so far this year. The Magic have some nice pieces, but they don't have the depth Milwaukee has across the board. I like Milwaukee to bounce back and win comfortably here. Take Milwaukee. |
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10-30-19 | Pistons +9 v. Raptors | 113-125 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Toronto Raptors have been really busy of late. The Raptors are playing their fourth game since 10/25 here. Toronto plays at Milwaukee in their next game. This is a possible look ahead spot. Toronto is still a very good team, but they don't carry the same extremely high upside that they did last year with Kawhi Leonard. Detroit is without Blake Griffin now, but the Pistons have some youngsters playing well. Luke Kennard is hitting 48% of his shots from long range so far this year. Christian Wood has been good in the frontcourt. Derrick Rose has turned back the clock and is averaging 21.5 points per game thus far. Early big underdogs in the NBA have been very strong in the last decade. That system is even stronger when they are against a team who made the playoffs the year before. This one fits. Take Detroit. |
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10-24-19 | Clippers -1.5 v. Warriors | 141-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Clippers* The Los Angeles Clippers depth is hard to match. The Lakers certainly couldn't even come close to matching the Clippers depth in game one. Golden State is far from the same team this year. They are without Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, and Andre Iguodala. Golden State signed Willie Cauley-Stein at center, but he will miss this game with an injury. Kevon Looney is expected to play, but he is banged up. Golden State won't be a bad team this year by any means, but the Clippers are better. I also like that the Clippers have gotten in one game already this year, while this is the opener for Golden State. The Clippers bench players are just as good or better than their starters at many positions. That makes them a very tough matchup. Scott Foster is the lead referee in this game, and the road team is 460-403 ATS in his games. Take the Clippers. |
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10-23-19 | Bulls -2.5 v. Hornets | 125-126 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Bulls* I don't think most people realize how bad the Hornets are going to be this year. Charlotte's roster is just awful. They let Kemba Walker go and now they don't even have a go to scorer. Terry Rozier isn't likely to be the answer here. Rozier isn't surrounded by much either. Nicolas Batum is injured right now. Cody Zeller isn't a bad player, but if he is your second best player you aren't a good team at all. The Chicago Bulls made themselves better in the offseason. I like the signing of Satoransky at point guard. Kris Dunn and Coby White are good options at point guard as well. Zach LaVine is healthy and Otto Porter Jr. is a good two way player. The Bulls got much deeper in the offseason. I think that depth will help them a lot against teams like Charlotte. I view the Bulls as better than the market price right now. The Hornets might be the worst team in the NBA. Lay the short price. Take Chicago. |
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05-30-19 | Warriors -1 v. Raptors | 109-118 | Loss | -108 | 114 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Finals Game One CASH* The Golden State Warriors benefit from having plenty of time to rest up and prepare for this series. Golden State sweeping Portland gave them a lot of extra time to heal up minor injuries to Curry and Thompson. Steve Kerr's teams have been dominant in Game One since he took over. Kerr is 18-1 in Game One in the playoffs. The Warriors will likely be without Kevin Durant, but I believe this team is still easily the most talented team in the NBA without Durant. Golden State's defense picked it up without Durant, and Curry and Thompson have been much more aggressive on offense. The Warriors have been here many times before, while Toronto is here for the first time. Toronto is a very good team, but I think the Warriors are on a different level. Golden State played relatively poorly in the Portland series and still swept the Blazers. The Raptors put everything into the Eastern Conference Finals. They celebrated in a big way after that win. While there is some time between games for them, I do worry some that it still is far from an ideal spot for the Raptors. Golden State is the better team here, and this is a short price. Take Golden State. |
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05-21-19 | Bucks -2.5 v. Raptors | 102-120 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Bucks ATS* The Milwaukee Bucks lost in double overtime in Toronto in game three. Kawhi Leonard had 36 points and carried Toronto to a win in a must win game. I think it will be hard for Toronto to do it again in Game 4. Giannis Antetokounmpo was 5/16 from the floor and 2/7 from the free throw line in Game 3, and the Bucks still nearly won that game. Khris Middleton, another great scoring option for the Bucks, was 3/16 in that game as well. Milwaukee ranked first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the regular season. The Bucks work very hard on the defensive end. They are the best shot blocking team in the league. Toronto has a lot of guys who are unreliable from long range. Milwaukee is a really deep team as well, meaning it could be just about anyone who steps up as a great third or fourth option. The Bucks are a whopping 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up loss. I like the Bucks to bounce back here. Take Milwaukee. |
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05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6 | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Bucks ATS* The Toronto Raptors are coming off a very hard fought seven game series against the Philadelphia 76ers. They were fortunate to get out of that one with a win. They must turn around pretty quickly and refocus on the Milwaukee Bucks. Milwaukee blew right through Detroit and Boston, and the Bucks are most rested team left in the NBA playoffs. Backing rested home teams in game one of a playoff series has been a good way to look long term and this makes a lot of sense to me. The home team in round one is the team with home court advantage in the series and the stronger team most of the time. They have had longer to prepare for the series. The Bucks and Raptors each have a superstar, but the Bucks are the much deeper team. Milwaukee doesn't have any clear cut weaknesses, while Toronto's 3 point shooting is inconsistent. The Bucks should have the advantage from the line as well. Milwaukee excels at defending without fouling and is better at getting to the line than Toronto. The Bucks are 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 games against the Eastern Conference. The Raptors are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a 60% or higher winning percentage. Milwaukee isn't likely to overlook this game after stumbling in game one against Boston. Take the Bucks. |
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05-03-19 | Bucks v. Celtics -2 | 123-116 | Loss | -106 | 17 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Milwaukee Bucks were covering machines in the regular season this year. Milwaukee covered 61% of their games on the season. Boston covered only 50% of their games on the whole. I ran a query to test my theory that high ATS cover teams haven't been very successful ATS in the playoffs, especially against teams with a lower ATS cover rate. It turns out that theory was true. Teams with a cover rate of 52% ATS or higher against a team with a cover rate of 51% or lower in the NBA playoffs are 89-111 ATS in the last 200 games. On the road, they are 41-62 ATS in the last 103 contests. The Celtics didn't play up to expectations during the year, but they have loads of talent. The Bucks played great this year, but they are without one of their best players in Malcolm Brogdon. Brad Stevens is an elite coach. Stevens has been a big money maker in the playoffs for bettors, and this is a specific spot where he has excelled. The Celtics are 16-1 ATS under Stevens when favored against a team with a straight up win percentage of 51% or higher in the playoffs. That number is 13-0 ATS in the first or second round of the playoffs. Take Boston. |
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04-30-19 | Rockets +5.5 v. Warriors | 109-115 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Rockets/Warriors MONEY* The Houston Rockets lost a close one in Golden State in game one. There has been all kinds of talk about the officiating in the first game. The Rockets didn't get the benefit of the whistles in that one, and they weren't a bit happy with how things unfolded. Based on their anger and the fact that it has been such a big story the last couple days, I would tend to think that they get a more favorable whistle in this game. Additionally, Houston should be highly motivated to put forth its best effort in this one. Golden State isn't 100 percent right now. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are both dealing with injuries. Curry clearly hasn't been himself of late. James Harden didn't shoot the ball well in game one, and the Rockets still covered the spread and had a chance to win outright. Golden State is a great team, but I do think the Rockets are their toughest matchup in the NBA. Look for this game to go down to the wire. Grab the points. Take Houston. |
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03-20-19 | Wizards -2 v. Bulls | 120-126 | Loss | -113 | 17 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Red Hot CASH* The Chicago Bulls are expected to be without Otto Porter Jr. for this one. Porter Jr. has been a very good player for the Bulls since being traded over. They lose a key scoring option and a solid defender without him. Zach LaVine has been the Bulls best player of late, and Porter is likely the second most important player to this team right now. Washington isn't a good team, but they are healthier than Chicago, and they still seem to be trying to win. The Wizards just won in Chicago recently, and I think they can do it again here. Chicago is in a difficult spot coming off a road trip on the West Coast. Washington isn't likely to make the playoffs, but they are at least still alive in the playoff race in the Eastern Conference. The Wizards have bounced back from losses well of late. Washington is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 following a straight up loss. They are also 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. Chicago is 5-18 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Take Washington. |
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03-06-19 | Jazz -4 v. Pelicans | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Utah Jazz get a chance at some quick revenge here. Utah blew a big lead at home in the fourth quarter and let New Orleans beat them on Monday night. Rarely do teams get a chance at revenge on the road just two days later, but here the Jazz get that opportunity. Utah is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS loss. Utah is 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 following a straight up loss. Utah is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games in New Orleans. While the Pelicans have played pretty well of late, the Jazz have a lot more reasons to be motivated right now than do the Pelicans. The Utah Jazz team is balanced, and they should be supremely motivated considering the situation. I think this is a reasonable price to lay on the road team. Take Utah. |
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02-25-19 | 76ers +1.5 v. Pelicans | 111-110 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on 76ers* The Philadelphia 76ers are coming off a bad loss at home to the Blazers. Portland beat them 130-115. New Orelans is coming off a stunning win over the Lakers. Anthony Davis didn't play in that game. Joel Embiid is out here, but the 76ers still have plenty of talent to win this one. Philadelphia is fighting hard, while the Pelicans are best suited to tank at this point. Their team chemistry isn't very good with Davis clearly out the door after this season ends. New Orleans is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 following a straight up win. Philadelphis is 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games after a loss by 10 points or more. I don't think we'll see a big effort from New Orleans two games in a row. The oddsmakers are too low on the 76ers here. Take Philadelphia. |
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02-13-19 | Bucks -3.5 v. Pacers | 106-97 | Win | 100 | 16 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Indiana Pacers have played well of late, but they are getting too much respect here. The Milwaukee Bucks have been the most consistent team in the Eastern Conference. Milwaukee is 42-14 on the year, and they have proven they are more than just a one superstar team at this point. Indiana is without their star in Victor Oladipo. While they have played well of late, their upside isn't even close to as high as Milwaukee's right now. Give Indiana credit for its winning streak of late, but they haven't been a really good team during this streak. Milwaukee is laying a shorter number than they should be thanks to Indiana's recent success. Milwaukee is second in the league in field goal percentage on the season. The Bucks move the ball well and get good looks on a consistent basis. I like the Bucks to go into the break with a solid win here. Take Milwaukee. |
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02-12-19 | Spurs -3.5 v. Grizzlies | 108-107 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 1 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The San Antonio Spurs have been blown out several games in a row, but they have been blown out by quality teams. The Spurs are on their annual rodeo trip, and they are winless on the trip thus far. This is easily their best chance at a win, and with this being their final game before the All Star break, we should see a very focused team in Memphis on Tuesday night. The Spurs are cashing at a 55.7% ATS clip coming off a straight up loss since 2005. The Spurs are a whopping 64-36 ATS when they are -6 ATS or worse on average in their last 3 games. That isn't the only angle backing the Spurs here. San Antonio is playing with revenge here after Memphis beat them in their last meeting. A road team playing with revenge in the NBA has been a strong angle long term. The Spurs are also a quality team coming off a beatdown, and that is another strong angle. Memphis is without Marc Gasol now, and they are trying to get accustomed to their new players. The Spurs will want this game badly, and this is a chance to buy low on the Spurs. Take San Antonio. |
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02-08-19 | Bucks -8 v. Mavs | 122-107 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Friday Play of Day* The Milwaukee Bucks are playing some amazing basketball. Milwaukee is a complete team. While Milwaukee has been putting up some big numbers offensively, it is important to note that Milwaukee ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Milwaukee is a really deep team, and they have multiple guys who have varying strengths. No doubt Giannis is their superstar, but he has more help around him now than most people realize. Dallas has traded away most of their key players. Luka Doncic is tremendous, but the supporting cast around him right now is very weak. I like their move of picking up Porzingis, but that does nothing for them right now. Dallas has overachieved of late, which has kept this number in check. Milwaukee is a top four team in the NBA, and they have been an ATS machine of late. Lay the points here. Take Milwaukee. |
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02-05-19 | Lakers -2.5 v. Pacers | 94-136 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Lakers* This is certainly a public side, but the public isn't always wrong. The Lakers are in a good spot here. Los Angeles is much more rested than the Pacers. Indiana is in their first game back from a 4 game road trip. The Pacers played on Saturday in Miami and then last night in New Orleans. They beat a shorthanded New Orleans team by two in a hard fought game last night. The Lakers last two games were last Thursday against the Clippers and this past Saturday in Golden State. LeBron James rested on Saturday against the Warriors. He is expected to play today. The Pacers aren't even close to the same team without Victor Oladipo. They aren't particularly deep to start with and I'm taking the Lakers to get a nice win here as much more rested team. Take the Lakers. |
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01-25-19 | Knicks +9.5 v. Nets | 99-109 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Friday Fast MONEY* The Brooklyn Nets have been money in the bank as an underdog the last couple seasons. This is not a team I want to be laying a bunch of points with. That is even more the case when they are without Spencer Dinwiddie, who is averaging more than 17 points per game this year. Dinwiddie will be out several weeks due to an injury. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is also questionable for this game, and he's a key guy down low for this Nets team. Brooklyn is just 50-61 ATS laying 5 points or more since 2008. When they are getting more than 50% of the public bets they are 32-48 ATS laying 5 points or more. The Knicks have been competitive of late. They lost by only 3 to Philly. They lost by one point at Washington. They lost by four against Houston. Brooklyn is shorthanded and they shouldn't be laying this many points. Take the New York Knicks. |
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01-23-19 | Nuggets v. Jazz -3 | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Utah Jazz have Ricky Rubio back on the floor, and that's a big plus for the team. Utah is coming off a disappointing performance. The Jazz have been great at bouncing back in this spot though. Denver has been beating up on bad teams of late. The Nuggets are definitely a good team, but they need to prove they can beat other high quality teams on the road. Denver is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. Utah doesn't have a great record this year, but they are a very high quality team. They are healthier now, and they have a great home court advantage. Utah is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six when playing at home and coming off a straight up loss. The home team is a perfect 9-0 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. A 15-0 angle. Take Utah. |
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01-18-19 | Pelicans v. Blazers -3 | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 20 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Friday FAST CASH* The New Orleans Pelicans are coming off a big effort on the road against the Golden State Warriors. New Orleans led for much of the game before Golden State made a run late and won that contest. New Orleans is 6-18 straight up on the road this year. The Pelicans clearly have talent, but they haven't been consistent at all. Portland has one of the best home court advantages in the NBA. The Blazers are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 home games. Portland is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Blazers have been excellent at home in recent weeks, and they have plenty of reason to be up for this game. Remember who swept them out of the playoffs last year? Yes, it was the New Orleans Pelicans. New Orleans is coming off a discouraging loss where they had a chance to beat Golden State. Portland is coming off an easy win over the Cavs. I'll lay the short number here. Take Portland. |
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01-16-19 | Nets +5.5 v. Rockets | 145-142 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Brooklyn Nets have been sneaky good this year. That is especially true in recent weeks. They are 14-5 in their last 19. Houston isn't the same team without Clint Capela. They will badly miss his defense. Chris Paul is out. Eric Gordon is questionable. James Harden is amazing, but he doesn't have much help right now. Brooklyn is a very scrappy team that generally keeps nearly every game close. The Nets are cashing at a 65% clip ATS on the road since 2015 when they getting less than 50% of the bets. The public bet percentage on them here is only 19%! A strong system backs this one. Eastern Conference teams getting 3.5 points or more on the road against a Western Conference team are hitting at a 63% ATS rate since 2015 when the Western Conference team has an ATS cover rate of 50% or higher on the year (52% for Houston). I'll fade the public and back the Nets here. Take Brooklyn. |
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01-14-19 | Blazers +3 v. Kings | 107-115 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Late Night MONEYMAKER* The Portland Blazers have been playing good basketball of late. Portland has shown they have a high upside. They have had one of the best backcourts in the NBA the last few years in Lillard and McCollum. The team has gotten much better now though since Nurkic has become a very dependable big man in the middle. Portland put up a good fight last night in Denver. I ran a query to see how teams have done after a game in Denver- they have done surprisingly well. A team who is on a road trip after playing a road game in Denver who also fits the following- -Their opponent has an ATS win percentage of higher than 50% on the year (Kings are at 59%) -The public bet percentage on this team is 51% or less (34% of the bets are on Portland here). This system is 57-33 ATS (63.3%). Portland didn't have a day off, but this exact same spot on the second game of a back to back is 20-7 ATS. This line has been pushed up to a full possession. The Kings are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Portland. |
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01-13-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -4 | 113-116 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on the Nuggets* The Denver Nuggets are coming off a disappointing loss to Phoenix on Saturday night. Denver now goes back home though, and the Nuggets are 17-3 straight up at home. Portland is just 8-10 on the road. Portland and Denver both have two of the best home court advantages in the NBA. Portland has been at home picking up nice wins and feeling good about themselves. Now, they go on the road to play at altitude against a Denver team that should be highly motivated for this contest. Portland is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 in Denver. The Blazers haven't proven they can win consistently on the road in tough environments. The Nuggets depth and efficiency on offense are likely to be too much here for the Blazers. Denver is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games. Portland is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The price is cheaper than it should be thanks to Portland's hot streak of late. Take Denver. |
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12-30-18 | Kings v. Lakers +1.5 | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Sunday Night SMASHER* The Los Angeles Lakers were ahead of the Sacramento Kings nearly the entire game in Sacramento on Thursday night. The Kings won on a buzzer beater three by a single point. They erased a 15 point deficit on their home court. The Kings have been making a habit out of winning games after being down big of late. That's a sign of a gritty team, but that kind of effort every night takes a toll on you over time. The Kings can't keep doing that every time. The Lakers want this one badly. The quotes after the game in Sacramento the other night were pretty strong from each side. This is turning into a rivalry. The Lakers have a great young nucleus. While LeBron James isn't expected to play here, they were without him the last time these two met and outplayed Sacramento on the road for most of the game. Kyle Kuzma is playing great basketball, and the return of Brandon Ingram is key for the Lakers. The Kings are covering 61% of their games so far this year, and I see some regression to the mean in their near future. Look for a strong effort from the Lakers on their home floor here. Take the Lakers. |
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12-18-18 | Lakers -2 v. Nets | 110-115 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Los Angeles Lakers played brilliantly two games ago in Charlotte, but things went off track badly in their last game in Washington. LeBron James scored a season low 13 points in that one. The Lakers overall have definitely played better in recent weeks, and I expect them to come ready to play here. The Nets have a nice win streak going right now, which allows us to get this at a discounted price. While the Nets are a scrappy team, they don't have the talent the Lakers have. They aren't likely to catch the Lakers sleeping in this one after an embarrassing showing last game for LA. Taking good teams (50% SU on the year or higher) on the road off a blowout loss is 55% ATS in the last ten years in the NBA. When the opponent is coming off a win of 6 points or more last game, that number goes up to 59% ATS. The Lakers fit this system. Take the Lakers. |
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12-14-18 | Hawks +13 v. Celtics | 108-129 | Loss | -103 | 16 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star TGIF NBA System Play SMASHER* The Boston Celtics are laying a big number here. Boston hasn't been good at all laying big numbers under Brad Stevens. Stevens is a tremendous coach, but his teams have done well in small favorite roles and as an underdog. Boston isn't even close to 100 percent. The Celtics are without Al Horford here. Gordon Hayward and Jaylen Brown are both questionable with illnesses. I don't see why the team would want to rush them back when they are playing against the Hawks. One would think they would either be very limited in playing time or they will sit this one out. Atlanta has been playing hard of late. The Hawks aren't very good, but they aren't just laying down. They have enough scorers to keep the opposition honest. Boston is a terrible 5-24 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite of 8.5 points or more. The Celtics are shorthanded and they have no real reason to be highly motivated for this game. I'll grab the points here. Take Atlanta. |
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12-07-18 | Thunder v. Bulls +8.5 | 112-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA TGIF CASH* The Chicago Bulls have a new head coach, and for a team that has struggled so badly but does have some young talent, a new coach is likely a positive thing. In professional leagues, we often see a short term improvement in performance from bad teams when they get a new coach. Oklahoma City is in a tough spot here. The Thunder came back from a 23 point deficit against the Brooklyn Nets in their last game. They used up a lot of energy doing that, and this is a game where that could certainly hurt their chances of winning by a large margin. This is a fade of the public as well. Oklahoma City has been on a big winning streak, and the public is betting them in a big way here. Grab the points. Take Chicago. |
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11-29-18 | Clippers v. Kings +3 | 133-121 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA on TNT CASH* The Sacramento Kings are a much improved team this year. Sacramento has a ton of talented youngsters, and they have gotten better faster than most people expected. Sacramento rarely gets a chance to be on national television, but this is a great spot for the Kings with extra rest and on on national television. Why wouldn't they be motivated for a game like this? The Clippers are off to a good start this year, though I do believe they may come back down to earth a bit in the weeks upcoming. It's a back to back spot for the Clippers here after they beat Phoenix on Wednesday, so they aren't nearly as rested as Sacramento. A good home underdog on national television always interests me at least some, and I think Sacramento has a good chance of winning outright here. Take Sacramento. |
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11-19-18 | Celtics -2 v. Hornets | 112-117 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Boston Celtics haven't played very well this year. Brad Stevens called his team out in a big way after their home loss to Utah. He wondered if the team is tough enough and said something needs to change quickly in the approach of this team. Stevens is very respected and I think the team as a whole will respond to his comments. Charlotte is coming off an overtime loss. The Hornets aren't a bad team, but they don't match up well with the Celtics. Charlotte has routinely been beaten badly by this Boston team. Brad Stevens' teams have been money on the road. Stevens teams are a whopping 94-59 ATS (61.4% wins) when favored by 2 or less or set as an underdog. That's the spot they are in here. Take Boston. |
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11-14-18 | Bulls +12 v. Celtics | 82-111 | Loss | -104 | 17 h 12 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Boston Celtics host the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday night. Boston is better than their record would indicate, and I certainly expect them to improve throughout the year. However, this is a team that is still trying to figure things out with totally different players in key spots this year compared to last. Additionally, Brad Stevens coached teams very rarely blow out bad teams. The Chicago Bulls have been playing very hard of late. Chicago clearly doesn't have the same kind of talent that Boston does, but the Bulls have fought to close losses against very good teams in the past couple weeks. There is a great system that this game meets. It is fading the Boston Celtics as a big favorite. With Brad Stevens as coach- the Celtics are a ridiculous 1-21 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite of 8.5 points or more against a team with a win percentage of 40% or lower on the season. Just laying 8.5 points or more, the Celtics are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games. They have let the much weaker teams stay close consistently. Grab the points here. Take Chicago. |
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11-07-18 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies +4 | 87-89 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Denver Nuggets are coming off a win over the Boston Celtics in their last game. That was an extremely emotional game that went right down to the wire. While Memphis isn't a team that is elite by any stretch of the imagination, they are still going to be a very tricky matchup as long as Mike Conley and Marc Gasol are healthy. Memphis won't be popular with the betting public here, but that is fine with me. The Grizzlies are a contrarian look here. Denver has been playing a lot of high profile games and this is a potential letdown spot. Denver has been a much better team at home in recent seasons, and I would expect that to continue this year. The Nuggets are still a young team, and they are going to be inconsistent. Memphis is coming off two losses, while Denver comes into this one off four straight wins. That has inflated the price here in a game that should go to the wire. Denver is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. the NBA Southwest Division. Memphis is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 16-0 angle. Take Memphis. |
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11-02-18 | Knicks v. Mavs -5.5 | 118-106 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star TGIF NBA Play of the Day* The Dallas Mavericks are an improved team this year. The New York Knicks are going nowhere fast. They both enter with the same record, but a closer look here shows the Mavericks have had some really tough close losses on the road this season. This is a get right spot for Dallas. DeAndre Jordan makes the Mavericks defense much better this year. Luka Doncic has been tremendous as advertised this year as well, and he gives this team much more firepower. Harrison Barnes and Wesley Matthews are solid starters also. Dallas is a well-rounded team that should continue to be undervalued for a while against the spread. New York is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. a Western Conference foe. The Knicks have relied on second chance points a lot so far this year, but Dallas is first in the NBA in defensive rebounding percentage. The Knicks offense isn't likely to be efficient enough here. Take Dallas. |
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10-31-18 | Pistons +3 v. Nets | 119-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Pistons* The Detroit Pistons are in a back to back spot here, but long-term the history shows that fading road teams on a back to back in the early season NBA schedule isn't a good move. In fact, blindly backing teams on the second end of a back to back has been great to bettors in the first 12 games of the NBA schedule. Up through game number 12 of the season, road teams on a back to back are 57.6% ATS since 2005 in the NBA. Detroit is in that spot here. Brooklyn is a team that can struggle on the boards, and that's a big problem against Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin. The Pistons beat the Nets earlier this year despite shooting the ball very poorly. Detroit dominated on the glass in that one. Detroit has won five of the last six meetings between these two teams. The matchups favor the Pistons and this situation is better for the Pistons than most realize. Take Detroit. |
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10-30-18 | Pistons +9.5 v. Celtics | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 16 h 53 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Detroit Pistons are 4-1 so far this year. What was their one loss? Detroit lost by 20 points on their home floor to the Boston Celtics in their last game. Boston was 14/34 from 3 point range in that game. Detroit was 7/37 from 3 point range. That's the type of statistic that tends to regress. Early in the NBA season- big underdogs have done very well in the long run. In the first 6 games of the season (this is game 6 for the Pistons) teams who are dogged by 8 points or more are hitting 57% ATS since 2005. If they are up against a team who made the postseason last year, that number goes to 59% ATS. This game fits that system. Boston has been terrible as a big favorite as well. The Celtics are an awful 2-21 ATS in their last 23 games when laying 8.5 points or more. Boston is a very good team, but the Celtics haven't been consistent so far this year. Detroit is likely to play hard here given the spot. Detroit has rapid revenge on their side and a couple other very strong long-term angles. I have to grab the points here with the underdog. Take Detroit. |
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10-26-18 | Mavs +11.5 v. Raptors | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA TGIF Bookie CRUSHER* I had the Dallas Mavericks as a team I wanted to bet as an underdog early this year. I expect them to be much better than they were a year ago. Dallas' "clutch time" statistics last year suggest their record from a year ago would be nearly impossible for them to replicate. Why so? Dallas went a ridiculously bad 12-38 in clutch time games last year. That's a 24% winning percentage and that is far worse than anyone else in the league went. By default they would be better this year. Dallas added Luka Doncic, and he has already proven to be ready to make a big contribution right away for the Mavericks. They also added DeAndre Jordan. Jordan makes this team much better on the defensive end. Harrison Barnes has been out with an injury, but he is expected to make his season debut in this game. Toronto is unbeaten this year, and the Raptors are a good team, but laying this many points against a much improved Dallas team doesn't make any sense to me. Double digit dogs in the NBA have done great early in the season for the past decade, and I think this is a big dog with too much value to pass up. Take Dallas. |
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10-24-18 | Jazz +2 v. Rockets | 100-89 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Utah Jazz* The Utah Jazz will face a short-handed Houston Rockets team tonight. Houston is without Chris Paul due to his suspension. James Harden is a star, but Chris Paul really makes this team go. We saw that last year, and I expect the same this season. If anything, this Houston team appears a little weaker than a year ago. Carmelo Anthony can do some scoring, but he hurts them on the defensive end. Utah will be one of the best defensive teams in the NBA again this year. The Jazz don't have any key injuries thus far. I love Mitchell at the point guard spot without Paul to man up on him. Houston knocked Utah out of the playoffs last year. The Jazz were very competitive in Houston last season, and that was with Paul on the floor. I see Utah as a team on the rise and Houston as a little weaker than last season. They are much weaker without Paul. The referee crew here helps also. The three referees combined have a combined road/home ATS record of 754-694 ATS. Tony Brothers is the biggest road referee in the NBA (53.3% ATS all time) so that is a bonus here. While only 48% of the bets are on Utah, 78% of the money is on them. The sharp money likes the Jazz. Take Utah. |
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10-23-18 | Kings +11 v. Nuggets | 112-126 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Sacramento Kings* The Denver Nuggets are coming off a win over the Golden State Warriors. Who do they play after this game? They go to Los Angeles to take on LeBron James and the Lakers. This is a really good letdown spot contest. Denver can't be too terribly excited to play Sacramento at home in this kind of a sandwich spot. Sacramento has a lot more young talent this season. Marvin Bagley III is a key contributor now, and De'Aaron Fox is a budding star. The Kings have all sorts of length in the frontcourt, and they have the potential to matchup with Denver's forwards better than most can. Taking underdogs early in the season in the NBA has been a good way to look in the long run. Underdogs of 8 points or more in the first 6 games of the NBA season are at 58% ATS in the last 10 years. That's not something that should be overlooked. This angle makes a lot of sense to me since everyone is fighting hard and has something to prove early in the season. No one is tanking or worn out early in the season. Denver is in a tough situational spot here, and I'll grab the points. Take Sacramento. |
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10-22-18 | Magic +12 v. Celtics | 93-90 | Win | 100 | 16 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Orlando Magic* The Boston Celtics are going to be a really good team this year. Still, this is a letdown spot for the Celtics. Boston has played the 76ers and Raptors in their first two games. Those might be the the other two teams trying to beat them for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. In their third game, they traveled to Madison Square Garden to play the Knicks. Now, they come home to play an Orlando Magic team that would be easy to overlook. Orlando isn't a good team, but they are playing very hard for new coach Steve Clifford right now. They do have some good young players on this team, and these guys are healthy for once. Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier, and Terrence Ross are all healthy. Mo Bamba is giving the team some quality minutes in his first few games as well. The most important reason for this play to me is how Brad Stevens' Celtics have done when laying a big number. The Celtics are a miserable 2-20 ATS in their last 22 games laying 8.5 points or more. I'll look for Boston to win here, but not cover the big number. Take Orlando. |
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10-19-18 | Cavs +8.5 v. Wolves | 123-131 | Win | 100 | 17 h 53 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA TGIF ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Minnesota Timberwolves have some serious chemistry problems right now. Jimmy Butler badly wants off this team, and by the sounds of the quotes lately from the locker room- these guys aren't getting along well at all. Minnesota hasn't been good as a favorite at home against a team with a losing record in recent years either. The Timberwolves are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 home games as a 8.5 point favorite or smaller against a team with a losing record. Even when they had good chemistry, the Timberwolves have struggled to put away bad teams in these spots. Cleveland isn't going to be a good team, but they do still have some talent. They aren't likely to be a cellar dweller. The Cavs seem motivated and they didn't play all that badly against a very good Toronto team in game one. Kevin Love returns back to go against his old team in Minnesota. Underdogs have done well in the first couple weeks of the season in the NBA the last few years, and that makes sense to me since everyone thinks they have a real chance to contend early in the season. Grab the points and fade Minnesota's ugly situation. Take Cleveland. |
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10-17-18 | Wolves v. Spurs -2 | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Spurs* Yes, the Minnesota Timberwolves have more talent than the Spurs. The Spurs do own a large coaching advantage here though, and the Spurs don't have the massive chemistry issues that the Timberwolves do. Minnesota has a big issue with Jimmy Butler trying hard to get traded. He has reportedly burned down almost every bridge he has with this team, and there have been some very strong quotes coming from his teammates of late. That isn't a good situation as we start the regular season. The Spurs aren't as talented as they were years ago, but they do have DeMar Derozan and LeMarcus Aldridge to lead the team. Last year they were without Kawhi Leonard nearly all year. They are at least as talented now as they were for much of last season. The Timberwolves are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 road games. The Spurs are 10-3 ATS on at least 3 days of rest. With a top coach and lots of time to get ready for this game, I'll back the Spurs. Take San Antonio. |
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06-08-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +5 | 108-85 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Cavs* The Cleveland Cavs are in desperation mode. They likely know they are going to lose this series, but I think they have enough pride to play really hard here. Golden State is well known for not showing up with their "A Game" all the time. The Warriors go through the motions at times and let people hang around. Cleveland led for much of Game 3, and LeBron James had a subpar shooting game by his standards. The Cavs are dominating on the offensive glass. Cleveland's second chance opportunities should be key in this one. The NBA would certainly like to see another game here to make some more money. Golden State might not mind going to another game to win in front of their home fans either. I think we get a strong effort from Cleveland. I'll fade the public and take the points. Take Cleveland. |
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05-21-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Boston Celtics ATS* The Cleveland Cavs embarrassed Boston last game. Cleveland had to win last game to stand any chance in the series, and Boston was feeling a little too good about themselves after their 2-0 start to the series. Guard Terry Rozier said the humbling defeat in Game 3 did Boston some good. Boston ranked first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Celtics were torched all night long by Cleveland in game three. I don't expect the Celtics defense to perform that poorly again here. Boston has a tremendous coach in Brad Stevens. Stevens is likely to have his team ready to go for this one after such a poor effort last time around. Cleveland is 8-23 ATS in their last 31 home games as a favorite of 5.5 points or larger. They haven't been good at covering big spreads in a long time, and this Cavs team still has plenty of flaws. This is a prime bounce back spot and in the NBA playoffs, teams off a blowout loss have been good ATS in the last 15 years. The public is all over Cleveland now- because of what they saw last game. I'll grab the points and the Celtics. Take Boston. |
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05-14-18 | Warriors +1.5 v. Rockets | 119-106 | Win | 100 | 20 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Golden State* The Golden State Warriors have one of the best teams the NBA has ever seen. Golden State is absolutely loaded with talent and they have a very good coach in Steve Kerr. Houston deserves a lot of credit for what they have done this year. The Rockets are a very good team. Still, their upside isn't as high as Golden State's. If the Warriors are ready to go and are healthy, they should win this series. Golden State is the much better defensive team- and I trust Kerr more than D'Antoni as well. The Warriors should be highly motivated here knowing that they are underdogs in this game and that several in the media think Houston will take them down. Golden State is playing their best basketball right now. The 2-1 regular season advantage for Houston means little to me right now. Golden State only cares about the postseason at this point, and the Warriors should be anxious to prove a point. Look for a strong performance from Golden State in the first game of the series. Take Golden State. |
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05-07-18 | Raptors +6 v. Cavs | 93-128 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Toronto Raptors* The Cleveland Cavaliers have been terrible against the spread as home favorites all year. Cleveland is up 3-0 here, and the Cavs have gotten sensational efforts from LeBron James in this series. Toronto was the better regular season team, and they have been very competitive in 2 of the 3 games in this series despite ugly performances from some of their top players. James isn't getting much in the way of help from his teammates, and that makes it hard to cover a big number against a quality team. Though Cleveland has played a bit better in recent games- this is still a very flawed team. James is the best player in the league by a wide margin, but the team as a whole isn't what it was in the past. The Cavs are 10-30-1 ATS as a 2.5 point or larger home favorite this year. They are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 in this situation. I think this game stays close. I'll grab the points with the deeper team. Take Toronto. |
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04-24-18 | Spurs v. Warriors -11 | 91-99 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% System SMASHER* The Golden State Warriors shot the ball terribly in Game 4, and they now have to come home and finish things off against the Spurs here. The San Antonio Spurs know they have lost this series. They have a lot of pride and were able to fight to win one game, but I don't think this game will be very competitive. I wouldn't expect the Warriors to shoot the ball so poorly again, and the Spurs have been a really bad road team of late. I have several systems I follow in the NBA during the playoffs- and one of them gives me a nice 14-0 angle here. The 14-0 ATS angle is as follows: Backing a home favorite with a win percentage of 64% or higher against a team with a win percentage of 64% or lower when the home favorite is off a loss by at least 11 points in the previous game. The home favorite must have an overall ATS record on the season of 50% or lower as well. Golden State meets this angle. If you get rid of the team ATS must be lower than 50%- the angle is 33-9-1 ATS (78.6%). In all, backing a home favorite off a blowout has been a great play. Golden State should take care of business here. Take the Warriors. |
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04-14-18 | Heat +7 v. 76ers | 103-130 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 3 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Saturday ATS Best Bet* The Philadelphia 76ers are a good team. They deserve a lot of credit for everything they have done. Still, there is definitely some recency bias in this number. The 76ers have won 15 games in a row. It would be hard for their price to not be inflated here. It is inflated. The Heat and 76ers squared off four times this year. The Heat won twice and the 76ers won twice. The Heat won by nine and by a single point. The 76ers wins came by 6 points and 2 points. These teams have played some very close games against each other. In the NBA playoffs, fading a team with a high ATS cover percentage on the year has been a good strategy, especially when backing a team with a mediocre cover rate. The 76ers covered 58% of their games this year. The Heat covered 52% of their games. The Heat are very good on the road. Miami is 26-9-2 ATS in their last 37 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The 76ers are a young team and they will be without Joel Embiid who is one of their two stars (Simmons the other). Though they have been playing great without him of late, they are clearly a better team with Embiid. The 76ers are new to the playoffs and they have the highest turnover percentage of anyone in the NBA. Grab the points. Take Miami. |
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04-11-18 | Nets -1 v. Celtics | 97-110 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Nets ATS* The Brooklyn Nets have no incentive to tank like other bad teams, and it has shown down the stretch. Brooklyn looks to head into the offseason with four straight wins. The Boston Celtics are resting a bunch of players, and I expect them to just be looking to get out of this game without anymore injuries. Boston has been torn apart by injuries this year, and this Celtics team is limping to the finish. This game means nothing to Boston. Brooklyn will likely want to win again. Brooklyn has won four of their last five road games. The Nets are 9-1 ATS in road games against teams with a winning record. The Celtics are resting Horford and Rozier (who has been carrying a lot of the scoring load of late). Take Brooklyn. |
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04-05-18 | Nets +8.5 v. Bucks | 119-111 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Milwaukee Bucks have been miserable at covering at home as a favorite. They are 9-30 ATS in their last 39 home games as a favorite of 4.5 to 13 points. Milwaukee has played a bunch of close games against subpar teams. Brooklyn has been very good as an underdog this year. They have been excellent ATS on the road both last year and this year. They are 47-29-3 ATS on the road in the last two seasons. Carroll will miss this game for the Nets, but they do have a decent young nucleus. The Nets have continued to play hard all year, and they are in a bounce back spot after a blowout loss last game. The Bucks are in a second game back home after a long road trip. This has been proven to be a bad covering spot over the years. Milwaukee is 0-12 ATS in their last 12 home games as a favorite of 5.5 points or more when playing an opponent with a win percentage of 36% or lower. The Nets have won 32% of their games this year, so this fits the system. Take Brooklyn. |
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03-21-18 | Wizards +5 v. Spurs | 90-98 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Washington Wizards have played good basketball even without John Wall. Washington has been at their best away from home when it comes to covering the number. The San Antonio Spurs have played better in their last few games, but this is still a team with plenty of flaws. They aren't consistent enough on the offensive end to be laying many points against quality teams. The East vs. West matchups have been interesting the last few years. The Western Conference is certainly better than the Eastern Conference, but Eastern Conference dogs have been great since 2015 when going against Western Conference foes. Eastern Conference road teams who are dogged by 3.5 points or more and are up against a team with an ATS cover rate of at least 51% on the year thus far are a whopping 110-59 ATS (65.1%). Washington fits this system. Grab the points in what should be a close game. Take Washington. |
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02-26-18 | Pacers -2 v. Mavs | 103-109 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 9 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Red Hot CASH* The Indiana Pacers lost at home to the Dallas Mavericks in their last meeting. They were without Victor Oladipo in that game, and he obviously makes a big difference to this team. Dallas is a bad home team ATS, and they have almost nothing to play for now. Indiana is playing for a lot, and the oddsmakers have set this line too short. Here's a system regarding underrated favorites late in the NBA season -Between game 60 and the end of the year -The team's winning percentage is 55% or higher -The opponents win percentage is 31% or lower -The team you are backing are on the road -The team you are backing has covered 56% of their games or less on the year. The record for this system is 104-63 (62.5% ATS) dating back to 2005. Indiana fits the bill here. Take the Pacers. |
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02-26-18 | Grizzlies +12 v. Celtics | 98-109 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Grizzlies ATS* The Boston Celtics have not been a team you want to lay a bunch of points with. Boston is an ugly 2-16 ATS in their last 18 games when laying 8.5 points or more. Brad Stevens' teams aren't likely to blow away their opponents. Boston has no reason to be up for this game. Memphis has lots of injuries, and they have lost nine games in a row. The Grizzlies have played hard much of the year though, and they are 7-4 ATS on the season when catching 8.5 points or more. In the NBA overall, taking underdogs of 9.5 points or more who have covered less than 44% of their games on the season: the results are 608-477-21 ATS (56% ATS) since 2005. I'll take the ugly dog here. Take Memphis. |
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02-23-18 | Celtics -1 v. Pistons | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 16 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Friday Fast CASH* The Boston Celtics lost the last three games before the All Star Break. We know this is a very good team, and we know Brad Stevens is an excellent coach. There's no doubt in my mind that Stevens is one of the top three coaches in the NBA. Boston should be ready to go here. The Celtics defense let them down at the end of the first half, and I expect it to be much better here. Since Brad Stevens took over as coach of the Boston Celtics- Boston is 86-51-2 ATS (62.3% covers) when laying no more than 2 points or catching points and in game 4 or less of their road trip. This is a good bounce back spot for the Celtics in a spot where they've had a lot of success in the past. Take Boston. |
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02-22-18 | Wizards v. Cavs -5.5 | 110-103 | Loss | -101 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Cleveland Cavs are coming off a terrible first half of the season when it comes to covering the spread. Cleveland is 18-37-1 ATS on the season. In the NBA, these things typically even out. I don't think the Cavs will get back to .500 ATS, but I do think their number will improve. Cleveland is a different team since the trade deadline. This is a re-energized roster of youth and guys who are giving max effort. That wasn't the case through much of the first half. Washington is without John Wall here, and though they have played well without him, they aren't as dynamic on offense. Cleveland covered their last four games going into the break. Look for them to keep it going after the break. Here's a nice system- a home team in the first week after the All Star Game that has covered 50% or less of spreads on the season and is laying less than 12 points is cashing at 64% ATS in the last 12 years in the NBA. Take Cleveland. |
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02-10-18 | Wizards -5 v. Bulls | 101-90 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Washington Wizards take on the Chicago Bulls on Saturday night in Chicago. The Bulls are coming off a hard fought 114-113 win over Minnesota on Friday night. Zach LaVine was the star in that one. LaVine is listed as out for Saturday night's game since the Bulls don't want him playing back to backs coming off a major injury. Kris Dunn is out as well. These two being out are huge losses for the Bulls. Washington already has nice road wins at Atlanta (by 25), at Orlando (by 17), and then at Indiana (by 9) without John Wall in the lineup. This Wizards team is much more talented than the Bulls without Dunn and LaVine. The Bulls are playing a back to back coming off an emotional comeback win. I'll fade that spot with them shorthanded. Take Washington. |
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02-06-18 | Thunder v. Warriors -10 | 125-105 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Thunder/Warriors ATS CASH* The Oklahoma City Thunder have been hot and cold this year. Oklahoma City is clearly capable of pretty big things, but their inconsistency has been maddening. The Thunder have played poorly in recent games, and they have played a heavy schedule of late. Golden State is rarely only a ten point favorite at home. The Warriors are in a big revenge spot. Oklahoma City beat them badly in OKC 108-91 a couple months ago. The Warriors have been great in revenge spots. Golden State is 41-21 (66% ATS) in their last 62 games after losing the previous head to head matchup and then laying 10.5 points or fewer in the next meeting. Oklahoma City is 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning record. I expect a motivated Golden State team to show up, and when they are highly motivated they are the class of the league by a wide margin. Take Golden State. |
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01-29-18 | Heat -1.5 v. Mavs | 95-88 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Dallas Mavericks haven't been good at home against the spread in the last few seasons. The Miami Heat are a really good road team. Dallas is only 69-99 ATS in non-conference home games since the start of the 2006-2007 season. That's 41% ATS covers. Miami is 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games with zero or one day of rest when it is the first game of a road trip. Miami is the healthiest they have been in a long time. Having Whiteside back in the middle makes this a completely different team. Winslow is a nice versatile player who missed a bunch of time recently, but is back healthy now. Dallas isn't going anywhere this year, and they know it. The Heat are a well-coached team with a lot to play for. Miami is being undervalued by the oddsmakers, and I expect them to continue their recent strong performance. This team has gotten better throughout the year consistently with Spoelstra at the helm. Take Miami. |
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01-24-18 | Raptors -5.5 v. Hawks | 108-93 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA ATS Play of Day* The Toronto Raptors are well rested here, and I expect a strong effort. Toronto last played on January 20. The Raptors are in a very favorable spot here. They are a good team coming off a loss and on the road against a subpar opponent. Since 2005, road teams who have won 54% or more of their games, but are coming off a loss of 3 points or more are cashing at a 55.5% clip ATS. That's a great number when you consider it is a sample size of more than 1,000 games. Toronto meets this system. The Hawks are coming off a win against Utah, but the Raptors have been dominated by the Raptors in both games this year. This is a tough matchup for Atlanta. Toronto won 112-78 and 111-98 earlier this year. I see this price as a nice value. Take Toronto. |
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01-23-18 | Celtics -4.5 v. Lakers | 107-108 | Loss | -103 | 19 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Boston Celtics were embarrassed in their own place on Sunday against Orlando. I consider Brad Stevens a tremendous coach, and I think he'll have this Celtics team ready to go here. Boston is 17-7 ATS in their last 24 road games. They are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 following a loss. The Celtics defense has been the best in the NBA in the last ten games. The offense has been shaky, but I expect that to improve. Lonzo Ball will miss this game due to an injury. Caldwell-Pope is questionable here and Kuzma is probable but is dealing with a finger injury. The Lakers have been better of late, but a well-rested Celtics team that is looking to bounce back from an ugly performance is one I want to back here. Take Boston. |
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01-20-18 | Thunder +3.5 v. Cavs | 148-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Thunder/Cavs ATS CASH* The Oklahoma City Thunder are fully healthy again. Andre Roberson is key to this team's defensive success. He's back and 100 percent again now. Oklahoma City is third in the NBA in defensive efficiency so far this season. What about the Cavs? They are 28th in defensive efficiency. Cleveland is an awful 3-23 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Thunder are well rested here, and they should be able to take advantage of Cleveland's terrible form right now. Grab the points. Take Oklahoma City. |
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01-16-18 | Wolves v. Magic +8.5 | 102-108 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a spot that they have struggled in the past couple seasons. Minnesota has been at their best against quality teams, but they haven't been good against the worst teams in the NBA. Minnesota is 13-31-1 ATS laying 9 points or less since the start of the 2015-2016 season on the road against teams with a win percentage of 43% or lower. In that spot against Eastern Conference teams they are 1-9-1 ATS. Minnesota is 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 40% or lower. Minnesota has some marquee games coming up on their schedule, and if they were going to overlook someone, this would be the game they would overlook. The Magic have the rest advantage here having played only three games in the last nine days. The Magic are healthier again now, and I think they stay within this number. Take Orlando. |
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01-15-18 | Heat +1.5 v. Bulls | 111-119 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Miami Heat have been tremendous both on the road and on the second end of back to backs recently. Miami is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games on zero days of rest. What about on the road? Miami is 38-23 ATS in their last 61 road games. The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games that follow a home game on a back to back schedule spot. Chicago was a spread darling for a bit when they got healthy at first, but the Bulls haven't been guarding anyone of late, and Miami ranks in the top six in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. Miami is much better than most people realize, and they are well coached. Winslow is back in the fold and that makes this Heat team that much deeper. Take Miami. |
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01-12-18 | Nets +3 v. Hawks | 110-105 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Sharp Money ATS CASH* The Brooklyn Nets catch the Atlanta Hawks in a tough scheduling spot here. Atlanta is coming off a five game road trip out west. That trip finished in Denver on Wednesday night. Atlanta picked up a nice win and spent a lot of energy in that game. Atlanta is one of the worst teams in the NBA, and seeing them laying three points is strange enough, but seeing them lay three points coming off a long road trip in their first game back is even more head scratching. Brooklyn is coming off a thumping at the hands of Detroit in their last game, and I would expect a much stronger effort here. The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. Brooklyn has been a very competitive team on the season overall. This one fits a system of backing teams as an underdog off a very low scoring game as well. The bet percentage on Brooklyn is 59%, but 89% of the money is on them. The sharps like the road team here. All three of the referees in tonight's crew have been favorable to road teams in the long run. Take Brooklyn. |
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01-05-18 | Bulls +4.5 v. Mavs | 127-124 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Dallas Mavericks are coming off a buzzer beater loss at home to Golden State. The team sounded deflated after that game, and I think there will be some lingering effects of that tough loss here. Dallas is just 2-8 ATS at home this year against teams with a losing record. They are 1-9 ATS on the year against teams with a win percentage of 43% or lower. Chicago is coming off a couple close losses at home. The Bulls have really played well with Mirotic in the lineup, and I think it might do them some good to go back on the road, where they have been great against the spread. The Bulls are 8-4 ATS this year on the road against teams with a winning record. The Mavs are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 vs. a team with a 40% win percentage or lower. The Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. Take Chicago. |
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12-16-17 | Bucks v. Rockets -10.5 | 111-115 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA ATS Bookie SMASHER* The Houston Rockets have won 16 of their last 19 games by at least 11 points. Houston is absolutely rolling right now. Chris Paul and James Harden have been a great match in this D'Antoni offense. Also, the Rockets are much improved on defense. How much so? Houston ranks second in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. Milwaukee allows a league worst 40.1% from 3 point range. What do the Rockets do? They hoist a ton of long range jumpers, and they should get a lot of open looks here today. Houston shoots almost 10 three pointers per game more than anyone else in the NBA. Milwaukee is a decent team, but the Rockets are a couple clear steps above them. Milwaukee had long travel for this one on a back to back, while Houston was at home for both games. Lay the points. Take Houston. |
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12-06-17 | Warriors -5 v. Hornets | 101-87 | Win | 100 | 16 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Golden State Warriors are far and away the best team in the NBA. Stephen Curry will miss this game with an injury, but even without Curry I rate the Warriors as the best team in the league. This game provides the Warriors with a spot to showcase how good they are without Curry. Expect the rest of the stars to step up their game here. The top three teams Charlotte has played at home are Houston, Cleveland, and San Antonio. They have lost all three of those games and each of them have been by at least 8 points. Now, they play an even better Golden State team. Golden State is a whopping 55-34 ATS since the start of the 2015-2016 season when they are favored by 10.5 points or less. Lay the short number with the best team in the NBA. Take Golden State. |
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11-24-17 | Pistons +8 v. Thunder | 99-98 | Win | 100 | 18 h 45 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Situational Spot CRUSHER* The Detroit Pistons last played on Monday night when they were embarrassed by the Cleveland Cavaliers 116-88. Detroit has been excellent so far this year, and they have excelled at bouncing back from bad games. They had a long time to think about that ugly loss, and their motivation level should be very high here. What about Oklahoma City? They are coming off a great win over Golden State, but the Thunder haven't been a bit consistent this year. They have been certainly been disappointing on the whole. I'd want to see more than one great game from OKC before I trust them. Detroit is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record at home. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following an ATS loss. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their last game. A 16-0 angle. Take Detroit. |
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11-20-17 | Blazers -1 v. Grizzlies | 100-92 | Win | 100 | 20 h 33 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA REVENGE Special* The Portland Blazers should be out for revenge here. The Blazers lost 98-97 at home to Memphis a couple weeks ago. A lot has changed since that game though. Mike Conley is out for the Grizzlies, and he's their most important player. Conley had 20 points and 6 assists in that one point win in Portland earlier this year. Conley isn't the one banged up for Memphis. Wayne Selden and Brandan Wright are out for this game as well. Tyreke Evans, who is second on the team in scoring, is listed as questionable for this game. Memphis has lost their last four games at home. The losses came to Charlotte, Orlando, Indiana, and Houston. Only one of those is really a high quality team. Portland has been playing great defense of late, while Memphis ranks in the bottom five in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last five games. I like Portland to get their revenge here. Take Portland. |
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11-17-17 | Pistons +1.5 v. Pacers | 100-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Situational Spot Play* The Detroit Pistons have been very good so far this season. Drummond is a budding star and even his free throw percentage has gone way up from last year. Tobias Harris is a pure scorer, and the Pistons have been playing much better defense this year as well. The Pacers are coming off a surprising win at Memphis. The Pistons are coming off a very close loss to Milwaukee on the road. Detroit is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following a straight up loss. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when scoring 100 points or more last game. Detroit has been the more consistent team this year, and at this price I'll side with them. Take Detroit. |
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11-13-17 | Grizzlies +4 v. Bucks | 103-110 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Memphis Grizzlies are coming off a blowout loss to the Houston Rockets. Memphis is a quality team, and I expect a better performance here. This game fits into a nice long term system. The road team coming off one loss and the spread being 6 or less on either team: back the team off one loss if they have won 55% or more of their games on the season. This system is 58% ATS in the last ten seasons. Memphis is the play under this system. Memphis has a big advantage down low here, and I think they'll take advantage. Milwaukee has been really inconsistent this year, and I think they are getting a little too much credit from the oddsmakers here. Take Memphis. |
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11-12-17 | Heat v. Pistons -3 | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Situational Spot CRUSHER* The Miami Heat are playing their sixth straight road game. This road trip has been a really tough trip with a game at Denver at the beginning of the trip at altitude and a game at Utah at altitude in their last game. Miami fought hard to win a comeback victory in Utah on Friday. That game had to take a lot out of them. Now, they travel a long way to Detroit to take on a Pistons team that has been at home all week. The Pistons have been terrific at home this year. Andre Drummond's improvement and Tobias Harris' offensive explosion have been behind their hot start. You couldn't blame Miami if they get down early if they look forward to the trip home after this long road trip. I think Detroit should stay focused for the entire game. The Heat are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Eastern Conference. The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. An 11-0 angle. Take Detroit. |
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11-01-17 | Bucks +3.5 v. Hornets | 121-126 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Milwaukee Bucks fit into a nice system that has worked for many years of backing good teams after they were blown out. Backing a team with a 50% win percentage or better off a loss of 15 points or more is 56% ATS in the last five years. When the team is the road team, the percentage bumps up to 57.5%. Long-term, if you are getting edges that strong you have to play them as many times as possible. Charlotte is coming off an impressive win over Memphis in their last game, and I don't feel they'll have the same kind of point to prove in this one that Milwaukee will. Milwaukee is a team that entered the season rated higher thanCharlotte by almost everyone. Charlotte definitely doesn't deserve 3.5 points for homecourt advantage. The oddsmakers are suggesting Charlotte is a better team on a neutral court? I disagree. Add in the situation and I like the value even more. Grab the underdog here. Take Milwaukee. |
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11-01-17 | Suns +12 v. Wizards | 122-116 | Win | 100 | 2 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Sharp Money NBA Side* The sharp money loves the Suns here. Only 45% of the bets are on the Suns, but 80% of the money is on Phoenix. Otto Porter has been ruled out for tonight's game for the Wizards. Porter is the team's third leading scorer, and he's the team's best three point shooter. He's also a very good defender. Phoenix is on a back to back here, but teams on the second end of a back to back actually do well ATS in the first few weeks of the NBA season. It is later in the season that back to backs hurt teams. Phoenix has played very well since Jay Triano took over. They are catching a big number here. Washington has only covered 44% ATS in the last ten years as a home favorite of 3 points or larger. I'll fade the Wizards here. Take Phoenix. |
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10-30-17 | Nuggets -3.5 v. Knicks | 110-116 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 56 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Situational Spot Money* The New York Knicks traveled to Cleveland and stunned the Cavs last night. They have to be feeling pretty good about themselves. The Knicks are still not a good team. It's a lot to ask of a team like the Knicks to play really well in the second half of a back to back after trouncing a team like the Cavs in the first game. Denver is better than their record. The Nuggets played yesterday and stomped Brooklyn. I think that kind of offensive explosion was what the doctor ordered for the Nuggets. This team has too many offensive weapons to have the kind of offensive efficiency they had early in the season. Denver's offensive efficiency was first in the league after the All Star Break last year. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 on the second half of a back to back situation. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings with the Knicks. A 10-0 angle. Take Denver. |
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10-28-17 | Rockets +1.5 v. Grizzlies | 89-103 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Houston Rockets were beaten last weekend by the Memphis Grizzlies. Here's their chance for some quick revenge. Memphis went on a 20-2 run in Houston at the finish of that game to win. The Rockets remember that one well. I expect a much better effort from Houston here. Yes, Houston is on a back-to-back spot here, but the Rockets are 14-3 straight up in their last 17 games on zero days of rest. This is a deep team that should be highly motivated. Memphis is a team that most people had pegged in the #13 or #14 range in power rankings before the season. Houston is a top three team in the NBA. This line is an overreaction to Memphis' fast start. Houston was jut 9/38 from 3 point range in the meeting between these two last weekend. I wouldn't expect that again here. I think Houston gets their revenge here and ends their road trip with a win. Take Houston. |
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10-25-17 | Nuggets -1.5 v. Hornets | 93-110 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Denver Nuggets were seen by many sharp handicappers as a potential breakout team this year. Their season win total was much higher than the Charlotte Hornets. Denver has started a bit slow. The Nuggets led much of the way against Utah on the road in the season opener before blowing it in the fourth quarter. The Nuggets then beat Sacramento handily before dropping a close one at home to Washington in their last game. The Hornets have major injury issues. Expected to be out for this game are: Batum, Zeller, and Carter-Williams. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is questionable here. Denver is without any key injuries right now. I think the market has overreacted to the early struggles of the Nuggets. Taking road favorites off one loss in the NBA and favored in the past 10 years is 54% ATS. That's not a bad number considering the amount of games in the sample size. If you tighten the system to following: Road team off one loss and the home team has a one game streak (either a win or a loss) and the road team coming off the loss is favored by 7 or less, it is 62% ATS in the last 10 years. Take Denver. |
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10-18-17 | 76ers +7 v. Wizards | 115-120 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Washington Wizards are without Markieff Morris to tip off the season. For a team that isn't deep in the frontcourt, that's a significant injury. Washington is a veteran team at this point, and they are going to have a solid season again. Washington hasn't been good laying big points at home in recent years though, and I think there is plenty of reason to doubt them in this one. The Philadelphia 76ers are no longer trying to lose. This is a team that brought in Redick in the offseason and has Ben Simmons, Markelle Fultz, Joel Embiid, and all sorts of young talent. Philadelphia still has some role players that played great down the stretch last year as well. The 76ers depth is better than average, and I see them as a highly motivated team starting off the season. The Wizards are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 in the first game of the season. They are laying too much here. Take the points and the 76ers. |
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05-04-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -5.5 | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Washington Wizards had large leads in Boston in each of the first two games of this series. They ended up blowing both of those games, and now they have their back against the wall. They can't lose this game or the season is essentially over. I see Boston and Washington as two very equal teams. The Wizards have two stars in John Wall and Bradley Beal. I think they both play really well in this one. Isaiah Thomas is exceptional, but at some point you have to wonder if he is having to do too much for the Celtics right now. What's the playoff system that supports this play? Here are the following things that go into it. -the team must be the favorite and be coming off two straight up and ATS losses -there is reverse line movement in the game -The team shoots 75% or better from the free throw line -Their opponent is in the bottom ten in the NBA in rebounding -The percentage of bets placed on this team is 55% or lower (not a big public play) Backing this system is 18-4 ATS in the last 22 chances in the NBA playoffs. The public is on the Celtics early, but there is large sharp money on the Wizards. It makes sense to me. Take Washington. |
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05-03-17 | Rockets v. Spurs -5 | 96-121 | Win | 100 | 19 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The San Antonio Spurs were absolutely throttled in game one of this series. The Spurs were down 30 points at halftime and this is a proud team that doesn't get beaten down like that. It will surprise me if we don't see a lot of effort from this Spurs team in game two. The Rockets aren't going to make 22 three pointers every game. The Spurs are one of the best in the NBA at defending the three point shot. The Spurs are likely to be very focused on defense in this one after an embarrassing loss. I have two systems backing this play strongly. The first is a simple one. Back a team that just lost by 25 points or more and has a 65% winning percentage or better on the year. That system is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 spots in the NBA playoffs. The second system is similar, but slightly different- the team is coming off a loss of 11 points or more and is at home and favored by 13 points or less in their next game. That team must have a win percentage of 67% or higher. This system is 35-9 ATS (80% Winners) in the last ten in the NBA playoffs. I think this will be a tightly contested series and it won't surprise me if the Rockets win the series, but this is a strong spot for the home team. Take the Spurs. |
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05-02-17 | Jazz v. Warriors -13 | 94-106 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Jazz/Warriors Late Night MONEY* The Golden State Warriors are the most talented team in the NBA. Golden State has had 8 days between games here, so the most talented team in the NBA has had all kinds of time to rest up and be ready for this series. Utah played on Sunday afternoon in Los Angeles and defeated the Clippers in Game 7. The Jazz and Clippers had a very hard fought series, and now Derrick Favors is questionable for Game One here vs. the Warriors. Rudy Gobert is still less than 100 percent as well. While the Warriors are in good shape coming into this series, the Jazz aren't. There is a system where when a team is at home and has more than 4 days off they are hitting 65% against the spread in the playoffs in the last 10 years. That gets even better when it is a team that has covered 55% or less of their games on the season so far. The Warriors have covered 52%. This angle is 60-28 ATS (68.2%). Look for Golden State to rout the Jazz in game one. Take Golden State. |
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05-01-17 | Raptors v. Cavs -6 | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Raptors/Cavs CASH* The Cleveland Cavaliers are clearly the best team in the NBA Eastern Conference. Still, the Cavs haven't played up to their potential this year. That's why we are able to get them at only -6 here. I think this is a good spot for the Cavs to flex their muscles. The Raptors are 2-10 ATS in Game One of a playoff series, so they are notorious for their slow starts. LeBron James has been excellent in Game One in the NBA playoffs throughout his career. The Cavs last played 8 days ago. The long rest is helpful this time of the year. How much so? Teams with more than 4 days of rest are 70-38 ATS (65% wins) when they are favored by 9 points or less and they are at home. That fits here. The Cavs are much better than the Raptors, and this price is a nice discount based on Cleveland's under performance overall. LeBron and the Cleveland stars are well rested which means they can play heavy minutes here. Take Cleveland.  |
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04-28-17 | Clippers +6.5 v. Jazz | 98-93 | Win | 100 | 20 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star Clippers/Jazz ATS CASH* The Los Angeles Clippers didn't look good last game. Still, I can't pass up this many points with a team with Chris Paul leading the way. Paul has been clutch in many key games, and I think he will keep his team in the game here. The Jazz weren't very good when laying big numbers during the regular season. Going against the public is a winning strategy in the NBA playoffs, and thus far the public is heavily on the Jazz. Doc Rivers and his team had two days off to get ready for this one, and I don't think a team with as many veteran leaders on it as the Clippers will go down easily. The Jazz are still a young team. The Jazz are a good team, but I'm not sure they are great. They are being priced like they are a great team here. I'll take the generous amount of points. Take the Clippers. |
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04-18-17 | Bucks v. Raptors -7.5 | 100-106 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 14 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Toronto Raptors were thumped in game one of this series as a significant favorite. The line in game one of this series opened at Toronto -6.5 or -7 at most books. They were beaten by 14 points at home. Now, the line for this game sits at 7.5 points. Should be obvious to take Milwaukee and the points right? I don't think so. In fact, there is some great long-term data that backs up siding with the Raptors here. Toronto is the better team, and they proved it during the regular season. The Raptors cannot afford to go down 2-0, and they know that. The Raptors have been in the playoffs and in this spot multiple times before (down early in the series), and they have responded well. Here's the system- Play on a team that lost its last game by 11 points or more straight up. This team also is the home favorite in their next game. The team also has a higher winning percentage on the year than their opponent. In this spot- the home favorite looking to bounce back is 43-13 ATS in the last 56 opportunities. This is one of those situations that you have to take. I'm on the home team. Take Toronto. |
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04-16-17 | Thunder v. Rockets -7 | 87-118 | Win | 100 | 28 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Thunder/Rockets ATS CASH* Playing on the home team that is well rested has been a great long-term angle in the NBA. In fact, home teams that have had 4 days or more of rest have covered at a 63.9% rate in the past ten years in the NBA playoffs. Houston has had that rest, and the Rockets should be ready to go here. Oklahoma City relies very heavily on Russell Westbrook. Westbrook is a great player, but I think he has to do too much here. Patrick Beverly is a good defender and the Rockets will keep him on Westbrook most of the game. James Harden has been excellent for the Rockets this year, and his supporting cast is much better than Westbrook's. The Rockets shoot the three ball often, and the Thunder have been vulnerable against good three point shooting teams this year. Laying 7 points isn't all that much with a total of 228 points. Take Houston. |
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04-06-17 | Nets +2.5 v. Magic | 107-115 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Orlando Magic appear to have given up on this season. Orlando has been extremely inconsistent all year. They have actually played better against good teams than they have against bad teams. That's generally a sign of not being 100% invested. At the end of the season, they are even less invested in this season. Brooklyn is quietly playing some good basketball right now. The Nets are 6-3 straight up in their last 9 games. That's pretty wild considering they were 13-56 straight up before this streak at the close of the season. I have tracked a late season trend that this game fits into very nicely. A team that has won 40% or less of their games, but has won 60% of their last 10 games has been a great team to back against a poor ATS team in the last week of the season. The Magic have covered only 39% of their games this year. Between games 78 and 81 of the regular season in the NBA, this angle is 20-1 ATS in the last 21 instances. Brooklyn is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. The Magic are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing record. I think Brooklyn wins this game, so sprinkling a little bit of your bet on the moneyline isn't a bad idea. My selection here though is Brooklyn plus the points. Take Brooklyn. |
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04-04-17 | Bulls -3.5 v. Knicks | 91-100 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Chicago Bulls need wins badly right now. The New York Knicks don't really need anything other than to get to the postseason. The Knicks have nothing to play for, while the Bulls are trying to make sure they get into the playoffs. How did the Bulls turn things around? Jimmy Butler has been playing some great basketball of late, and he's been leading this team to much better performances. In his last 9 games, Butler is shooting 54% from the floor and is averaging 28.6 points per game. The Bulls are driving the lane more and kicking it out for open long range jumpers. Chicago's offensive efficiency is way up in their last eight games. In fact, they rank in the top ten in the league in offense, after being at the bottom of the pack for a while. Chicago's team chemistry is better now, and the Knicks are playing out the string. Road teams fighting for a playoff spot and favored on the road against a team that is out of the playoffs have cashed at a clip of 62% in the past five seasons in the last 6 games of the regular season. Take Chicago. |
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03-30-17 | Rockets v. Blazers +1 | 107-117 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA on TNT CASH* The Portland Blazers and Houston Rockets meet in a key Western Conference clash on Thursday night. Houston is a really good team, but this is a tough situational spot for them. They lost a tough one against Golden State in their last contest. That was a game they put a lot into. Now, they come to play Portland. Who do they play on Friday night? Golden State. They go to Golden State to play the Warriors for the second time in the past week. If you are Houston, if you are going to overlook any game in this week it is going to be this one. Portland isn't going to overlook any game right now. The Blazers absolutely have to keep winning or they won't make the playoffs. Portland is playing their best basketball of the season right now. The Blazers were bad on defense most of the year, but they have ranked in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in each of the last three weeks. This team has a great homecourt advantage, and they are in a good spot here. Portland has double revenge in mind here for this season, and revenge angles do really well this time of the year. I think the Blazers win a key game for them on Thursday. Take Portland. |
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03-26-17 | Blazers -6 v. Lakers | 97-81 | Win | 100 | 18 h 56 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Sunday Late Night MONEY* The Portland Blazers are fighting for their playoff lives. The Los Angeles Lakers are tanking. The Lakers backed into a win in their last game with an overtime victory over Minnesota. That hurt their lottery chances, and I'll be surprised if the Lakers put a lot of effort into this game. Portland is one game behind the Nuggets for the eighth spot in the Western Conference standings. The Blazers are playing their best basketball of the season right now. Portland has won three straight on the road. Those were wins over the Spurs, Hawks, and Heat. This is a big step down in class. While Portland did play last night, the back to back travel thing doesn't worry me much in this case. It isn't a long trip, and the Blazers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 on the back half of a back to back. The Blazers are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their last game. The Lakers are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 when their opponent scores 100 points or more last game. A 21-1 angle. Take Portland. |
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03-22-17 | 76ers +11 v. Thunder | 97-122 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Oddsmaker ERROR* The Oklahoma City Thunder are coming off a blowout loss at home to the Golden State Warriors. They were down 26 points at the end of the third quarter in that game. That is particularly bad considering Kevin Durant wasn't playing for Golden State. Oklahoma City is very likely to win this game, but I'm just not sure why they would be motivated to crush the 76ers. The Thunder play Houston and Dallas on the road in their next two games, and those are much bigger games for them. Philadelphia has been a money making machine this year. The 76ers continue to play hard despite being overmatched. The 76ers are a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. Oklahoma City is too big of a favorite here, and I'll take the double digits on the underdog. Take Philadelphia. |
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03-14-17 | Pistons v. Cavs -8 | 96-128 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Situational Spot CRUSHER* The Cleveland Cavs haven't been playing very well of late in general, but they actually looked like they might grab a win in Houston before losing a close one in their last game. LeBron James and company weren't happy at all after that last loss, and I feel this is a good chance for them to bounce back. Detroit has beaten Cleveland in back to back games. The Pistons have been a good team at home this year, but on the road they have been terrible. Detroit is just 11-21 straight up on the road, and they are 12-20 ATS away from home. The Pistons have shot the ball better from 3 than the Cavs in their last two meetings. Detroit is one of the four worst teams in the NBA from beyond the arc. The Cavs are number two in the NBA in 3 point percentage. Cleveland gets to go home and get a shot at quick revenge against a weak team. This is a good spot to lay the points. Take Cleveland. |
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03-11-17 | Wizards v. Blazers -2.5 | Top | 125-124 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
*5 Star NBA TOP Play GAME of the MONTH* The Washington Wizards are playing their 3rd game in four days and 5th game in 7 days here. It was going to be a bad spot regardless, but it got even tougher when they needed a huge comeback to win last night in Sacramento. That game went into overtime, so Washington has really put a bunch of effort in the last few nights. Before their win last night over Sacramento in overtime, Washington had to play in Denver. The altitude in Denver takes a lot out of a team. In the Wizards last four wins, they have needed fourth quarter comebacks to win. Portland has played only two games in the last six days. The Blazers are very well rested, and they have been playing much better of late. I did a database run on fading a team playing 3 games in 4 nights versus a team that has played 2 games in six days. The results are really impressive. The better rested team is 119-75 ATS in the last 194 spots like this. Washington is a good team, but they are 14-15 away from home. Portland has a great homecourt advantage and the Blazers are in an excellent spot here against a tired Washington team. Take Portland big. NBA Game of the MONTH |
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03-09-17 | Cavs -5 v. Pistons | 101-106 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 58 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Situational Spot SMASHER* The Cleveland Cavs are coming off back to back losses. That isn't something you can say very often. I think that means we'll see a spirited effort from the Cavs tonight. Detroit also beat Cleveland in the last game between these two. The Pistons were 16/28 from 3 point range in that game. For the year, Detroit is 27th in the NBA with a 33.3% success rate on three point attempts. Cleveland is playing with revenge from that loss, and that is key as well. Good teams on the road in a revenge spot have covered at better than 56% ATS in the last ten years. Detroit is playing the second end of a back to back, which doesn't help their cause. The Pistons are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 playing on zero days of rest. The Cavs are on 2 days of rest, where they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 situations. Take Cleveland. |
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03-06-17 | Kings v. Nuggets -13 | 96-108 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Sacramento Kings are one of the worst teams in the NBA now. They are definitely one of the bottom three in the league. Sacramento is a mess without Cousins and without Rudy Gay healthy. Sacramento played really hard last night and should have won against a good Utah team. The Kings ended up going into overtime and losing on a buzzer beating tip in by Rudy Gobert. That's a hard loss to recover from when you know you aren't going to win many games. Denver has a huge homecourt advantage with the altitude playing a big role. The Kings come in here on a back to back and even worse it was an overtime game. Additionally, Denver played their worst game recently on the road in Sacramento right after the break, and the Nuggets lost 116-100. This is a good revenge spot. I would like to lay less than 13 here, but the oddsmakers understand how bad Sacramento is at this point. Still, it is a great spot situationally to fade the Kings. Take Denver. |
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03-06-17 | Bucks -3 v. 76ers | 112-98 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Super System MONEYMAKER* The Milwaukee Bucks are in a great spot here. Philadelphia is playing their fourth game in six days, and injuries are a major problem for the 76ers right now. Gerald Henderson averages 10 points per game and he is questionable with a hip injury. Joel Embiid is obviously out for this game as well. Milwaukee is playing better of late. Khris Middleton is back on the floor and I think him getting healthy makes this team much better. The Bucks have been unlucky so far this year according to almost every advanced metric. I have a great system that backs this play strongly. The system is to play on a road favorite who has covered 44% or their games or less for the season. The angle gets even stronger when their opponent has covered 55% of their games or higher. In this case, Milwaukee has covered 40% of their games and the 76ers have covered 61% of their games. This system is hitting at 65% ATS since the start of 2009. Add in the fact that Milwaukee is playing with double revenge here, and we should get a very motivated Milwaukee team. Lay the small number. Take Milwaukee. |
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03-03-17 | Cavs -3 v. Hawks | 135-130 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show | |
*4 Star TGIF NBA Red HOT CASH* The Atlanta Hawks have been really inconsistent this year. Atlanta is coming off two nice wins including a win at Boston, and I'm not sure they can be trusted to deliver another strong performance here. Atlanta hasn't won three consecutive games since two months ago. Cleveland enters off a loss at home. Additionally, the Cavs lost at home earlier this year to Atlanta. There is every reason to expect the Cavs to come out fired up for this game. Kyle Korver goes back to Atlanta, and Korver has been shooting the ball really well of late. This fits a nice road revenge angle that has hit 56% long-term as well as a good team off one loss angle that sits at 58% long-term. Atlanta is coming off a game where they shot 56.1% from the floor. They should regress toward the mean here and against a motivated Cleveland team, I think that suggests the Cavs will cover. Take Cleveland.  |
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02-27-17 | Wolves -5 v. Kings | 102-88 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Oddsmaker ERROR* I think the oddsmakers are too high on the Sacramento Kings right now. This is a really bad team. They traded away DeMarcus Cousins. Rudy Gay is hurt. There are no stars, or guys who are even close to stars, left on the team. I see Minnesota as a quality team that has had some rough luck this year. Advanced metrics largely agree with that, and the Timberwolves are definitely better than their record. Karl-Anthony Towns is the best player on the floor here by a mile. Andrew Wiggins is playing really well of late also. This is also a good spot to play the road team with revenge. In fact, they have double revenge. In this spot when a team has double revenge and is favored on the road, they have covered 59% of the time in the last ten years. That's a great long term angle. The talent differential is huge here, and the Timberwolves are well rested. Take Minnesota. |
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02-16-17 | Wizards -2 v. Pacers | 111-98 | Win | 100 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA System Play SLAM Dunk* The Washington Wizards are playing with all sorts of confidence right now. Washington has won 10 of their last 11 games. Their only loss during that period was an overtime loss to the Cavs. Indiana has lost five straight games. The Pacers have played last night in Cleveland and traveled back late last night. Washington has had two days off before this game. The Wizards certainly want to finish the first half of the season on a high note, and they are the much better rested team. Washington has played only 4 games in the last 10 days. The Pacers have played 6 games in their last 10 days. On the occasion that a team has played 4 games in 10 days while the other has played 6 in 10 days, when the road team is favored by 4 points or less, the road team is a whopping 43-19 ATS in the last 62 occurrences. The Pacers are 9-23-1 ATS in their last 34 games when playing on zero days of rest. Washington is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 in Indiana. The Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last playing on 2 days of rest. There are a couple strong angles and a system here backing the Wizards, and I'll lay the two points. Take Washington. |
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02-13-17 | 76ers v. Hornets -8 | 105-99 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Charlotte Hornets are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games. Why would I be interested in backing them here? I think it is a buy low opportunity for this team. Charlotte catches a Philadelphia 76ers team that I believe is in a difficult spot here. Philadelphia is coming off back to back upset wins over Orlando and Miami. The 76ers are feeling pretty good about themselves after stopping Miami's long winning streak. Philadelphia will be without Joel Embiid and Jahlil Okafor in this game. The 76ers have been great against the spread this year, but that great ATS record has been all about covering at home. The Sixers are 20-9 ATS at home and 12-13 ATS on the road. The public will be on the underdog here, and I like fading a team that is a public underdog. Charlotte is also playing with revenge after losing big as a favorite against Philadelphia in their first meeting this year. I'll lay the points with the Hornets at home. Take Charlotte. |
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02-10-17 | Warriors -7.5 v. Grizzlies | 122-107 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Friday Night MONEY* The Golden State Warriors have lost two straight games against the Memphis Grizzlies. Golden State has been great in revenge spots in the past, and I'm going to back them again here. Golden State lost 110-89 the last time they came to Memphis. The Warriors then blew a 24 point lead against the Grizzlies at home on January 6. You better believe they remember that game well. Memphis isn't at full strength now either. The Grizzlies will probably have Zach Randolph on the floor here, but he is definitely less than 100 percent. Chandler Parsons will miss this game. You need all hands on deck when playing a motivated Golden State team. In the past 10 years in the NBA, when a team that has won 67% or more of their games on the season is playing with revenge, they have covered the spread 59% of the time. Golden State is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Golden State here. |
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