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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-09-17 | Celtics +2 v. Blazers | 120-111 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA on TNT CASH* The Boston Celtics played a really bad game last night in Sacramento. That makes me like them a lot more in this game. Boston is a resilient team. The Celtics are also 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 road games. They are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. This game fits nicely into a long-term winning system. It is a system that places a good team (55% or more of the time they have won straight up) on the road and coming off a blowout loss. When they are on the road again in their next game, that team has covered 58% of the time in the past ten years. Portland will be without Evan Turner here, and he has been giving them some good minutes in recent weeks. Boston is also a very impressive 42-17-1 ATS in their last 60 games when playing on zero days of rest. Look for a bounce back effort from Boston here. Take Boston. |
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02-07-17 | Magic +11.5 v. Rockets | 104-128 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Houston Rockets offense ranks 17th in the NBA in efficiency in the past eight games. They are obviously better than that, but the Rockets have hit a rough patch here in the middle of the season. Houston's defense still isn't any good, and that has put them in a lot of close games. What about the Orlando Magic? Orlando isn't a good team, but they have been an odd team in that they have played their best basketball both on the road and against very good teams. Orlando is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. They are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. Houston is playing on 3 days of rest here, but the Rockets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 in that spot. Houston is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 following a straight up win. They are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Eastern Conference. Orlando is coming off a blowout, and I'm tracking a system where the road team that is blown out that is once again on the road in their next game has covered the spread almost 60% of the time in the last six years. Take Orlando and the points. |
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02-06-17 | Suns +6 v. Pelicans | 106-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Phoenix Suns have been a fiesty team this year. They have been left for dead several teams, and they have generally fought back and played well. Phoenix is coming off a blowout loss at home to Milwaukee, which sets this one up nicely. Phoenix is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a double digit loss at home. They are a whopping 48-23-3 ATS in their last 74 games following a double digit loss. The Suns are also 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 following an ATS loss. The Pelicans are a really inconsistent team. I like to fade inconsistent teams that are laying points. Anthony Davis injured himself last game. Davis is expected to play through it tonight, but any injury to Davis is a big blow to this team. The public is all over the Pelicans here, which has pushed this number up. I'll grab the six points on the road underdog. Take Phoenix. |
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02-03-17 | Lakers +11.5 v. Celtics | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Boston Celtics have been a bad home favorite this year. While the Celtics are 15-7-2 ATS on the road, they are only 11-14 ATS at home. More importantly, Boston has been favored by 8 or more points at home six times this year, and they are 0-6 ATS in those games. The Lakers aren't an easy team to back, but they do hold value in a spot like this. I have a long-term system that is hitting 60.1% that likes this play. The main part of the system is fading a home favorite of double digits when they are playing their 6th or 7th game in 10 days. The thinking here is that home favorite just wants to get the job done and get a win, not cover the big spread. The record is 202-134 ATS in the last 336 times this situation came up. We'll take the ugly dog to keep things closer than expected here. Take the Lakers. |
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01-30-17 | Nets +9.5 v. Heat | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Miami Heat shouldn't be favored by 9.5 points over anyone in the NBA. I know the Brooklyn Nets are a bad team, but this is about taking 9.5 points against a team that has been red hot of late, but they are now getting too much love from the oddsmakers. Oddsmakers are rushing to upgrade Miami because of their recent run, but if you look at Miami's roster and the talent level, there isn't a big difference from Brooklyn. In a case like this, I think we are finding a sell high opportunity on the Heat. Miami is coming off several wins over very good teams. If there was ever going to be a letdown spot for a team like Miami, this is the time. Miami could easily overlook a team like Brooklyn and assume they can coast to a win. Brooklyn is 11-10 ATS on the road this year, and the Nets offense has been much better of late. Take the points. Take Brooklyn. |
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01-25-17 | Warriors -9 v. Hornets | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 NBA Red HOT CASH* The Golden State Warriors are coming off an unexpected loss at Miami two days ago. Golden State certainly isn't accustomed to losing, and I think they'll show up more focused in this one. Every team has bad nights. Even teams that are NBA Champions are going to throw in some clunkers. The Warriors defense let them down against Miami as Dion Waiters torched them time after time. Steve Kerr's team has the best defensive efficiency in the league for the year overall, and they should be much better here. Charlotte has three key players listed as questionable for this game. Cody Zeller, Frank Kaminsky, and Jeremy Lamb are all questionable. The Hornets have been blown out at home by the Cavs and the Grizzlies at home this year. This game fits a nice system. It is backing a road favorite that is coming off a loss and they are playing against a team that is either on a one game winning or losing streak. This system hasn't had a losing season in the past 10 years, and it is 60.2% during that span. Golden State bounces back. Take the Warriors. |
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01-23-17 | Thunder +6 v. Jazz | 97-95 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA ATS Play of Day* The Oklahoma City Thunder have had four days in between games. They were blasted by Golden State in the second half of Thursday night's game after being tied at halftime. Oklahoma City had plenty of time to think about that one, and I think they are in a good spot here. They were blown out last game, and there is a 58% ATS covering system on good teams (55% wins or more) that are blown out and then play their next game on the road. It becomes 60% when you factor in that the opposition has covered their last game. In this case, Utah has won six straight games straight up, and they are due for some regression. Utah blew out OKC earlier this year thanks to 13/23 shooting from 3 point land. Rodney Hood was their leading scorer in that game and he is injured now. Oklahoma City is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss by double digits. Utah is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 following a straight up win. Take Oklahoma City. |
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01-20-17 | Warriors -5 v. Rockets | 125-108 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Warriors/Rockets ATS CASH* The Golden State Warriors are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They exacted revenge on the Cleveland Cavs in a big way earlier this week. They were in a sandwich spot against Oklahoma City and still dominated the Thunder in the second half of that game. Now, they go take on a Houston team that beat them at Oracle Arena in overtime earlier this year. Houston has only lost 4 games at home this year, but the Rockets have beaten up on quite a few bad teams at home. They have lost both games at home against the Spurs. They lost by 5 last week to Memphis. They were blown out at home by Toronto earlier this year. Golden State's problem this year has been with covering huge spreads, not with taking care of business against good teams. The Warriors beat Toronto on the road by 6. They beat Boston by 16 on the road. They beat the Clippers by 17 on the road. Teams playing with revenge fare much better ATS on the road, which might surprise you. About 55% of the time a team in the past 10 years an NBA team playing with revenge covers on the road. At home, the rate is almost exactly 50%. The Warriors make a statement here. Take Golden State. |
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01-18-17 | Thunder +13.5 v. Warriors | 100-121 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Thunder/Warriors ATS CASH* The Oklahoma City Thunder are getting a few too many points here. Golden State is coming off their beatdown of Cleveland. That was clearly a game the team put a massive effort in for, and Golden State plays at Houston in their next game. Houston also beat Golden State earlier this year. Oklahoma City was crushed earlier this year by Golden State, and I think we'll see a much better effort from them tonight. The betting data here tells me a lot. Golden State is getting 73% of the bets tonight, but 53% of the money is on the Thunder. There is clearly a public/sharp split in this one, and I'll grab the points and side with the sharp players taking Oklahoma City. Take the Thunder. |
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01-16-17 | Pelicans +5.5 v. Pacers | 95-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Indiana Pacers are playing in their first game back from playing in London on January 12. That is a brutal trip for a team that is accustomed to playing a lot of games either at home or at least in the Eastern time zone in the United States. The body clock gets thrown off in a big way with that kind of trip. This is the perfect spot for them to be flat. New Orleans has the number one ranked defense in terms of defensive efficiency in the past 8 games. They are only allowing 0.982 points per possession. The Pacers defense ranks 24th during that same time. The Pelicans are better than their record, and I think this is a good chance to back them. There's also a strong system here of small underdogs going against the public have cashed at a better than 60% clip in the past 10 years. Take New Orleans. |
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01-15-17 | Thunder -1.5 v. Kings | 122-118 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Sunday Night SMASHER* The Oklahoma City Thunder are in a great spot here. Oklahoma City fits a 60.1% system where a road team that just lost is once again a road favorite. It is 249-165 ATS in the past 12 years. Oklahoma City has the more talented team, and I think they'll be very hungry in this one. Oklahoma City is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss, so they have fit into this type of system really well in the past. Sacramento has been an up and down team all year. I don't think they can be trusted. Oklahoma City isn't a great team, but I feel like we can expect them to give a lot of effort on a nightly basis. Oklahoma City is also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a losing record. Take Oklahoma City to bounce back here. |
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01-13-17 | Magic +7.5 v. Blazers | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Underdog Special* The Orlando Magic are 7.5 point underdogs here because Portland just blew out Cleveland on national television. This line has been adjusted upward too much. Portland still had a very weird travel schedule of late, and even two days later that could hurt them a bit. The Blazers were only favored by 2 at home against the Kings, by 6.5 at home against the Lakers, by 3.5 at home against the Pistons, and now the line has been inflated to -7.5 against Orlando. The Magic have covered 11 of 20 on the road this year. Orlando should be at full strength tonight with Ibaka expected back. Portland is only 7-19 ATS in their last 26 following a straight up win. Take Orlando. |
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