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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-07-17 | Hawks +14 v. Cavs | Top | 114-100 | Win | 100 | 2 h 2 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day Strange split of series this season with road team winning each of first two, most recently a wild 135-130 Cleveland win at Philips Arena on March 3 that was an early warning sign of Cleveland’s ongoing post-All-Star break defensive woes. Maybe some relief is on the way for Cavs, as J.R. Smith (14-for-25 from 3-point range over the last three games entering the week) finally finding his rhythm, so there’s a little less pressure on the Cavs’ shoddy defense. But LeBron played a season-high 52 minutes in Game 76 on Sunday (a double-OT win over Indiana), and the defense couldn’t stop a fairly simple pin-down action from freeing up Paul George (causing some serious friction between James and Tristan Thompson) that could have won the game for Pacers. A lot of points to cover especially since Boston lost again last night to these same Hawks. |
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04-06-17 | Wolves v. Blazers -6 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day Quick turnaround from make up game on Monday at Target Center, when Minnesota snapped the Blazers’ winning streak thanks to Blazer C Karl-Anthony Towns’ 34 pts. and 12 boards. Revenge is in the air, as recent trajectories of these sides have been time zones apart. Portland took a 14-3 SU mark its last 17 into the week to move into the final spot in the West playoff race, while sagging T-wolves were just 3-7 SU and vs. spread last 10 after Monday’s victory. And while Blazers still in playoff drive, Minny resorting to experimentation, as Tom Thibodeau has been playing both of his PGs, Ricky Rubio and Kris Dunn, at the same time in the past week, with mixed results. Meanwhile, let’s note Minnesota has officially become the NBA version of the Buffalo Bills, with its playoff drought now reaching 13 seasons (since Kevin Garnett led the T-wolves to the West finals vs. the Shaq-Kobe Lakers in 2004...where did the years go?), the second-longest in NBA history |
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04-06-17 | Wizards -5 v. Knicks | 106-103 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Entering the week, Washington had slumped a bit, with three straight losses at the end of a western road trip dropping them to the 4 line in the East playoff standings. Wiz out on road again tonight, but host Knicks haven’t offered much resistance in three previous meetings, losing them all, with Washington series win and cover streak now at five dating to last season. Not even sure who might be on the floor for New York; we know Derrick Rose (injured) and Joakim Noah (suspension) won’t be available, and not sure about Carmelo Anthony, nursing a sore back entering the week. Still a chance for Washington to move up to the third seed in East playoffs, while Knicks’ only motivation is to get done with the season. |
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04-06-17 | Nets +2.5 v. Magic | 107-115 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Quick turnaround from Saturday at Barclays Center, when Brooklyn won 121-111, as Brook Lopez dominated with 30 points and Trevor Booker added 23 for hosts. The Magic’s bench issues continued in that loss, when their starting lineup was a plus-10, but they were outscored by 20 points in 26 minutes with at least one reserve on the floor. That result was just one example of the improved recent play of Nets, who took a 12-4 spread mark their last 16 into Tuesday vs. the Sixers, plus a 7-6 SU mark their last 13. Not to mention a better SU mark in March than the Cavs! All not too shabby for an embattled outfit that won SU just once from Dec. 28 thru the end of February. Meanwhile, Orlando playing no defense in the 4-game SU losing streak it took into the week, conceding a whopping 121 ppg in those losses. |
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04-06-17 | Bucks +4.5 v. Pacers | 89-104 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This series has been about as one-sided this season as Joe Frazier’s 1st-round KO of Dave Zyglewicz in Houston back in 1969, with Milwaukee romping to easy wins and covers in first three meetings. Indiana not closer than 14 in any of those, when Bucks blistered the nets for a combined 36 triples in the three games, and near 50% shooting beyond the arc. Check standings, as Milwaukee might have clinched a playoff berth earlier in week. But if Bucks haven’t, they’ve shown more lately than Pacers, whose recent 1-6 stretch, in which they allowed 114 points per 100 possessions, took Paul George & Co. from sixth place to ninth in the East playoff queue. And don’t forget this season’s one-sided series trends. |
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04-05-17 | Warriors -7.5 v. Suns | 120-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The scoreline here solely depends upon Golden State’s focus. Not sure Warriors are going to be especially motivated against a team they destroyed 138-109 in last meeting way back on Dec. 3. But counting upon Golden State losing focus is a flimsy argument to support the Suns, who have done a good job of tanking the past few weeks and who take a 12-game losing streak into tonight’s game at the Talking Stick Arena. Even with Marquesse Chriss shooting better and Devin Booker scoring 70 points in a recent loss at Boston, the Suns rank 28th offensively over that12- game losing streak that has put them even with the Lakers (in the win column) for the second-best lottery odds. So unless Warriors (on 11-0 SU run into last night vs. T-wolves) simply don’t show up, hard-pressed to take Phoenix. |
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04-05-17 | Thunder +2 v. Grizzlies | 103-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After getting lambasted by Memphis by 34 back on Dec. 29 when Russell Westbrook was “held” to 21 points, Ok City has won and covered twice without much problem vs. Griz, with Westbrook notching a pair of triple-doubles and scoring 31 ppg in those successes. Granted, Memphis has some motivation here, as Griz still in a position to leapfrog Thunder into the 6th playoff seed in West (and likely avoid another matchup vs. Spurs, which would be their fourth meeting in the playoffs since 2010-11 season!). But right now not willing to trust David Fizdale’s crew, especially with Marc Gasol (foot) missing the last five games into this week, and the Memphis machine really grinding to a halt when Mike Conley goes to the bench (Griz outscored by 25 in the 55 minutes Conley has been on the bench since Gasol’s injury). Griz looking fragile minus Gasol in recent road losses to lowly Kings and Lakers. |
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04-05-17 | Raptors +1 v. Pistons | 105-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Recent 2-9 SU skid has put Detroit on the brink of playoff elimination. The early stages of that slump included an 87-75 home loss to Toronto on St. Patrick’s Day when Pistons could only shoot 34.9% from the floor and wasted a 22-rebound effort from Andre Drummond (partly because Drummond scored only 8 points and, as is his bent, missed all four of his FT attempts). Looking for another reason why Detroit is slumping? Since the All Star break, the Pistons have been outscored by an amazing 36 points per 100 possessions in the first six minutes of the first quarter, as none of their various starting lineups has worked. No wonder Stan Van Gundy is looking like a condemned man in recent weeks. |
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04-05-17 | Heat v. Hornets -1.5 | 112-99 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s fair to ask if Miami’s great uptick might be over, as Heat couldn’t take advantage of a pair of games last week vs.Knicks (who won at AA Arena) and lost again at home on Sunday vs. Denver. Which has left Heat clinging by its fingernails to the East’s last playoff spot entering the week. Recent Miami downturn might be more than a blip, as it has also coincided with absence of Dion Waiters (ankle), whose return date is still unknown. Meanwhile, Charlotte making a late run at a playoff spot in East by winning 7 of last 9 SU prior to last night vs. Wizards. Hornets have scored 114.5 points per 100 possessions over that 9-game ascent, the second best offensive stretch they’ve had in four years under HC Steve Clifford. Kemba Walker (24.2 ppg that stretch) has led the way, but bench contributions from Frank Kaminsky and Marco Belinelli have been critical, and Jeremy Lamb provided a big lift on Sunday vs. his former employer Ok City. |
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04-04-17 | Blazers +7 v. Jazz | 87-106 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Portland has roared into the last West playoff spot in recent super-charged 14-3 SU run. And even with last night’s make-up game at Minnesota causing them a bit of a scheduling distraction, would rather not buck the hot Blazers, who have continued to win thru the recent leg injury sustained by C Jusuf Nurkic. Portland also 5-2 SU its last seven vs. above-.500 teams, and dynamics a lot different than the last time Damian Lillard & Co. visited Salt Lake City right before the All-Star break on Feb. 15, when Jazz were flying high and Lillard and CJ McCollum were a combined 11 of 38 from floor in Utah’s 111-88 romp. In early April, Jazz a tougher sell with George Hill hurting again (Utah 31-14 SU with him in lineup and just 16-14 SU without him), and Gordon Hayward looking a bit tired, as he has been held below 20 points in six of last eight. |
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04-04-17 | Bulls -3.5 v. Knicks | 91-100 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While we have been burned more than once since Halloween by trusting the bipolar Bulls, cannot envision them losing all three this season vs. the sad-sack Knicks, who are now minus Derrick Rose (shut down for the final week with a meniscus tear in his knee) and might be without Carmelo (sore back) for tonight, not to mention Joakim Noah being sidelined by suspension. Chicago entered the week with a tenuous hold on the 7 seed in the East, with the very real prospect of a first-round series vs. a Cleveland side that Bulls have surprisingly beaten all four meetings this season. Hmmm, maybe the Cavs should be worried? But only the St. Louis Blues have had an easier schedule down the stretch than the Bulls, whose last five foes have a combined .331 win percentage this season. So feel relatively comfy trusting Chicago at a short price |
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04-04-17 | Raptors v. Pacers -2.5 | 90-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Quick rematch from Toronto’s 111-100 win north of the border last Friday, the second win and cover in as many tries for Raptors vs. Indiana this season. That result was part of a current 9-2 SU run for Toronto that has solidified Raps in the 3rd slot in East playoff queue. All of this minus Kyle Lowry, who might return before end of regular season from wrist problems. But speaking of playoff queues, Pacers not even sure they will be included after debilitating current 4-game losing has them on the outside, looking in, entering the last week of the campaign. Injuries to Glenn Robinson, Rodney Stuckey and Al Jefferson have sapped their depth, but the bad defense has started with the starters. Over these last seven games, they’ve allowed 123 points per 100 possessions with George, Jeff Teague and Thaddeus Young on the floor. But with playoff extinction looming, expect Indiana to draw a line in the sand tonight. |
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04-04-17 | Hornets +4 v. Wizards | 111-118 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Don’t sleep on Charlotte, which is making one last run at a playoff spot by winning 7 of its last 9, and now within striking distance of Miami for the 8 spot in the East. Fueling the surge is Kemba Walker, who has tallied 27.3 ppg over the past six games, offsetting the preceding four-game stretch in which he only averaged 15.3 ppg. Into the week, only five games separate the fifth-seeded Bucks and the 11th-seeded Pistons, but Hornets are suddenly playing as well as anyone in that seven-team scrum. Meanwhile, Wiz flattening out a bit, on their first three-game losing streak since mid-November. They got chewed apart by the Clippers and Warriors at the end of recent road trip and are set to have a below-average defense for the first time in five years. Washington has allowed 111.2 points per 100 possessions since the All-Star break after allowing only 105.0 before mid-February. There’s a case to be made for surging Charlotte. |
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04-02-17 | Bulls v. Pelicans -6.5 | 117-110 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New Orleans had covered 7 of the last 9 at the Smoothie King Center, and the addition of C DeMarcus Cousins has had something to do with the surge. PF Anthony Davis and Cousins give the Pels a dominating frontline, and the Bulls have been much weaker on the boards since trading F Taj Gibson (6.9 rpg) and shutting down Dwyane Wade, a solid rebounding guard. Before the trade, the Bulls were outrebounding foes by 4 per game. Since the trade they’ve been beaten on the boards by 2 per game. Bull C Robin Lopez and 2nd-year PF Bobby Portis are decent role players, but they won’t have Wade (22 pts, 5 rebs in 1st meeting) or Gibson (15 and 15 vs. the Pels) this time around. |
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04-02-17 | Pacers +9 v. Cavs | 130-135 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After dropping the first game with Indiana while playing without rest and without LeBron James, Cleveland has bounced back to win and cover two ensuing meetings. The Pacers had dropped 5 straight spread decisions on the road before starting this 3-game road trip in Memphis on Wednesday, and the Cavs are feeling great pressure at the top of the table in the East from Boston. However, not sure Cleveland can just flip the switch unless Cavs play better defense (allowing 110 ppg and being out rebounded by 4 per game since the break). |
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04-02-17 | Hornets v. Thunder -4.5 | 113-101 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Charlotte won the first meeting with OKC this season, notching a 123-112 decision in Charlotte on Jan. 4. The victory came despite Hornet PG Kemba Walker making just 5 of 13 shots and being outscored by Thunder counterpart Russell Westbrook 33-20 (Westbrook added 15 rebounds and 8 assists). Charlotte G Nicolas Batum (28 pts.) and C Frank Kaminsky (17 pts., 6 rebs. off the bench) helped turn the tide that night. This game is in OKC, however, where the Thunder are 21-9 as a favorite and where they have won and covered 8 straight against the Hornets. |
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04-02-17 | Celtics -6.5 v. Knicks | 110-94 | Win | 100 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston likely to remember the last meeting between these two, as New York went into the TD Garden and scored a convincing 117-106 victory behind Knick G Derrick Rose (30 points). The part the Celtics might remember most clearly is the music blasting from the N.Y. locker room after that game. HC Brad Stevens won’t let Boston forget that or the pathetic job the Celtics did on the boards that night, allowing the Knicks to build a 57-33 rebounding edge. The Celtics are 23-15 vs. the points on the road and fighting for the best record in the Eastern Conference. |
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04-01-17 | Suns v. Blazers -11 | 117-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the Suns waived the white flag in early March and shut down some of their veteran assets, Portland has marched into the final playoff spot by winning 11 of 14 games last month. That surge corresponds roughly with the acquisition of C Jusuf Nurkic from Denver. The 7-0, 280 Nurkic has given the Blazers a different look inside, scoring 14 ppg and grabbing 10 rpg in his 18 games with Portland. Phoenix has been content to lose, build up more lottery balls, and let young G Devin Booker see just how much he can score when given the green light (the answer is 70 pts. on 40 shots vs. Boston 8 days ago). |
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04-01-17 | Kings +12 v. Wolves | 123-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sacramento hasn’t won many games since trading DeMarcus Cousins, but the Kings have been competitive lately, logging a 6-4-2 spread mark in their last 12 through their March 26 miracle rally to beat the Clippers. The Kings remarkably erased an 18-point, 4th-Q lead vs. L.A. Sunday. Teams leading by 18 in the final Q this season were 359-0 prior to Sacto’s victory. Meanwhile, Minnesota is proving to be one of the bigger busts in the league. After being touted as a breakthrough team with the young Timberwolf talent being combined with vet HC Tom Thibodeau, Minny was the darling of the preseason prognosticators. It hasn’t worked out that way. Twolves are struggling with a 3-7 SU and spread run in their last 10. |
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04-01-17 | Hawks +4.5 v. Bulls | 104-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago hasn’t given up on nabbing the final playoff spot in the East, as a 5-1 SU and spread surge through March 29th brought the Bulls to within a half-game of Miami for the 8th spot as of Monday. Atlanta has had injury problems, with PF Paul Millsap (18 ppg, 7.7 rpg; knee), G Kent Bazemore, and defensive specialist F Thabo Sefolosha (groin) down for periods. However, all 3 of those starters might be ready to go for this game. Favor Hawk side that is 9-1 SU in last 10 vs. Chicago. |
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03-31-17 | Rockets +9.5 v. Warriors | 98-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston just hosted Golden State on Tuesday, and the Rockets are coming off a game last night in Portland. That scheduling hasn’t bothered Houston, however, as they’ve covered 10 of 14 this season playing without rest. The Warriors have certainly perked up since the middle of March, winning 9 straight with 7 covers in their last 9 of those victories. The Warriors have been doing it with defense, holding their last 6 foes to just 93 ppg. After Warrior games averaged 223 ppg before the All-Star break, HC Steve Kerr’s team has slowed the pace, with scoring down to 209 ppg total. That downshift has resulted in a 15-1 “under” run for Golden State games from Feb. 25-March 27. Warriors feeling heat from the Spurs, but Houston’s 9-1 mark as a road dog this season is impressive, and the now-injured F Kevin Durant led G.S. with 39 & 32 pts. in first two meetings with the Rockets. |
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03-31-17 | Spurs v. Thunder +2 | 100-95 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The home team has won and covered both meetings this season, and OKC is 7-1 SU and vs. the points hosting the Spurs the last 4+ regular seasons at the Chesapeake Energy Arena. To be clear, the Thunder had Kevin Durant for most of those successes, and San Antonio has managed to win a few playoff games at this site the last few seasons. The Spurs have played well on the road this season (28-9 SU), but OKC is 27-10 SU at home (25-12 vs. the points), and the Thunder catch the Spurs coming off significant home games facing Cleveland and Golden State earlier this week. |
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03-31-17 | Pacers v. Raptors -6 | Top | 100-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day These two played for the first time this season just 12 days ago at the Air Canada Centre, and Toronto cruised to a 25-point victory fueled by a 51-33 rebounding advantage and a 44%-26% edge in three-point shooting. The Raptors have won 9 of the last 10 at home against Indiana, covering 7 of those meetings, and are 5-1 SU overall in their last 6 games. Indiana was in a 3-way logjam for the 5-thru-7 spots in the Eastern playoff pecking order on Monday, so with Toronto in a fight with Washington for the 3-4 slots, this is a potential first-round playoff match up for both. Raptor G DeMar DeRozan has regained his shooting stroke, and F Serge Ibaka starting to fit in nicely with his new team. |
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03-30-17 | Rockets -110 v. Blazers | 107-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston has pounded Portland on both previous occasions this season in similar fashion (126-109 & 130-114). Those games were both in November, and James Harden (32 ppg in those wins) clearly outplayed Damian Lillard. Blazers have taken flight since and are fighting to make the playoffs, while Rockets now look locked into No. 3 playoff seed in West. But Mike D’Antoni’s bunch (won 7 of last 8 SU into Tuesday vs. Warriors) showing no signs of slowing down, so wouldn’t figure on Harden and others to take a breather until right at the end of the reg.-season schedule in two weeks. Prefer this season’s Houston-oriented series trends. |
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03-30-17 | Clippers -11 v. Suns | 124-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers haven’t had much trouble vs. the Suns this season, winning and covering all three handily, including 10-point win in the desert in most-recent meeting on Feb. 1. Clips scoring almost 117 ppg in those wins. So even with L.A.’s recurring (and puzzling) bouts of indifference, we are hard-pressed to recommend a Suns team that has appeared to be in dump mode ever since Gs Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight went down with injuries earlier in March. L.A.’s inconsistencies (such as the blown lead on Sunday vs. Sacto) more than a bit troubling, but Clips have something to play for (4th seed in West) and Phoenix doesn’t. Series trends and margins in Clipper wins (last eight by nine or more) suggest this is one spot we can trust Doc Rivers’ bunch. |
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03-30-17 | Cavs v. Bulls +6 | 93-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago has curiously dominated Cleveland this season, winning and covering all three meetings. And LeBron only missed one of those three losses (out for most-recent setback on Feb. 25 due to illness). D-Wade, however, now out for Bulls after scoring almost 20 ppg in first three clashes. It might be time for the Cavs to be really concerned about their defense, which has allowed four of their last five opponents to shoot better than 50 percent and ranks 29th since the All-Star break. Cavs were destroyed in the paint (70-30) in March 22 loss in Denver and couldn’t slow down John Wall in last Saturday’s loss to Washington, but they’ve also forced just 10 turnovers per 100 possessions (the lowest rate in the league) since the break. Suddenly, it’s no sure thing the Cavs can flip the switch. |
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03-30-17 | Lakers v. Wolves -10.5 | 104-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Let’s see if Minny is up for a payback after blowing a late lead at Staples Center last Friday. Not only did Jordan Clarkson score a career-high 35 points for Lake Show in that one, but he and D’Angelo Russell had a positive plus-minus (plus-6) together for just the second time in their last 27 games. Such embarrassment should spark an answer from the T-wolves, even though they had lost six in a row amid growing defensive concerns into Tuesday at Indiana. But this looks like a proper spot for Tom Thibodeau’s troops to take out some frustration, which Minny did the last time LA visited Target Center (125-99 T-wolves blowout back on Nov. 13). Last six Lake Show road losses by a staggering 25 ppg! |
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03-29-17 | Heat -3 v. Knicks | 105-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks have had worse records in recent years, but that is faint praise for the continued dysfunctions this season. New York still doesn’t have a win streak longer than one game in calendar 2017, and now Joakim Noah’s 20-game suspension only adds to the woes in the first year of a four-year, $72 million contract that was looking ill-advised (to put it mildly) well before the suspension. Miami getting a real gift in its quest to make the playoffs with back-to-back games vs. Knicks. Would dismiss NY’s long-ago win at AA Arena on Dec. 6, back when Knicks were actually trying and before Heat took flight in mid-January. Though Miami had lost 3 of 4 entering the week, shooting only 30% from beyond arc, while Goran Dragic has shot 34 percent overall (with almost as many turnovers as assists) in that stretch. Heat made up for the bad shooting with 25 second-chance points in recent win over Phoenix, but needs to start making shots (and get Dion Waiters back to active duty) as Miami tries to hold onto the eighth and last playoff seed in the East. |
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03-29-17 | Hornets v. Raptors -6 | 110-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sandwiched around a couple of narrow Toronto wins this season over Charlotte was a startling 35-point Hornets blowout back on Jan. 20. Raptors have since avenged that loss and entered the week on a 5-game SU win streak (4-1 vs. line), all minus G Kyle Lowry, who remains sidelined with a bad wrist, as Dwane Casey’s bunch not giving up in quest for something better than a 4 seed in the East playoffs. The recent 5- game Toronto uptick featured its best stretch of defense (93.5 points allowed per 100 possessions) of the season. Though the rotation is much different (no Lowry, new faces, young guys getting time) than it has been previously, they’re still much better when they go to their bench. With the improved defense, depth and versatility, a healthy return by Lowry for the playoffs would make the Raps a team to watch in the postseason. |
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03-29-17 | Hawks v. 76ers +1.5 | 99-92 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta has had no trouble with Philly this season, winning and covering handily (closest margin 17) in three earlier romps. Those, however, were all with PF Paul Millsap available, and since he’s out until the weekend at the earliest, must note Hawks were 0-8 SU in his absence, scoring 17 ppg fewer without him, into last night vs. the Suns. Atlanta (which also lost 7 in a row into last night vs. Phoenix) could see its depth further compromised with Thabo Sefolosha and Kent Bazemore also hurting. If Philly is to avenge the earlier results, it is catching the Hawks at the right time. Sixers, at 17-5 vs. points last 22 into last night vs. Nets, s0 there is a technical case to be made for Sixers. |
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03-28-17 | Nuggets v. Blazers -130 | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Lots at stake here between the top contenders for the last West playoff berth. Thus, it’s extremely important for both sides, as Portland (which has won 2 of the first 3 vs. Denver) also gets the tiebreaker over the Nuggets with a win in this one. Blazers have hit overdrive the past couple of weeks with wins and covers in six of their last seven, as what was the league’s worst defense through December ranks seventh this month and has allowed less than a point per possession in 277 minutes with its two starting bigs--Noah Vonleh and Jusuf Nurkic--on the floor together since Nurkic arrived before the break. That upgraded defense has also resulted in four straight “unders” for Portland. |
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03-28-17 | Warriors +1.5 v. Rockets | 113-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After being outgunned by Houston in a wild 2-OT shootout at Oakland on Dec. 1, Golden State returned the favor on Jan. 20 at Toyota Center when rolling by 17, as Kevin Durant scored 32 and James Harden was “held” to 17 points. K-D, of course, is out at least another week (or perhaps longer according to the latest reports from HC Steve Kerr) as he nurses his bad knee, but his unavailability has prompted one of the top “totals” streaks in the NBA this season, as the Warriors are “under” 15-1 their last 16, roughly coinciding with Durant’s absence. Golden State, which slumped a few weeks ago in its early stages minus Durant, now enters Toyota Center on a 7-game SU win streak. |
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03-28-17 | Wolves v. Pacers -4.5 | 115-114 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Indiana has yet to lock down a spot in the East playoffs, but did at least enter the week in a postseason position. Now the Pacers are gifted a reeling Minnesota side that enters Bankers Life Field house on a 6-game SU and spread skid. What has gone wrong for the T-wolves, whose current losing streak is also the longest in the career of HC Tom Thibodeau? Blame a tough March schedule and a sagging defense that has allowed opponents to score 120 points per 100 possessions in the slump. Can Indiana take advantage? The Pacers had better, because their next five games are against teams currently with winning records, and Indiana is only 11-18 SU vs. those sorts this term. Nate McMillan also has bench issues at the moment with Al Jefferson and Rodney Stuckey both hurting. But Jeff Teague (20.8 ppg on 53% FGs the last four) is providing consistent production, Myles Turner had a couple of big games over the weekend, and their starting lineup has been solid (plus-9.7 points per 100 possessions) over the last 10 games. |
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03-27-17 | Thunder -1 v. Mavs | 92-91 | Push | 0 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Teams split first two meetings along home court lines. Not long ago, Dallas did get Ok City by 15 at AA Center on March 5 when Russell Westbrook was “held” to 29 & 6. Which was a nice accomplishment by Mavs after Westbrook lit them up for 45 in Thunder’s 11-point win and cover at the Peake on Jan. 26. Ok City had won and covered five straight before running headfirst into Warriors on March 20, and Westbrook’s recent brilliance has put the West fifth seed in play for Ok City. After a six-game stretch in which he averaged 44.0 points but only 8 assists as the Thunder lost 4 of 6, jeopardizing his chances of finishing the season with a triple-double average, Westbrook tallied 26.6 ppg, 10.8 rpg and 14.4 apg during the five game winning streak. That sort of production can reverse this season’s series home trends. |
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03-27-17 | Cavs v. Spurs -5 | 74-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These two played a classic double-OT game at the “Q” on Jan. 21 when the Spurs survived by 3. Kawhi Leonard was the star that night with 41 points, one of his staggering 25 games of 30+ points thru March 20. Even with Kevin Love back in the fold, not sure about backing Cavs in revenge role, considering they had covered just 4 of last 13 thru March 20 and are just 2-8 as road dog this term. It won’t matter in this game, but Cavs fans in Charlotte, Chicago, Boston, Atlanta and Miami all need to be aware that the games their favorite team is playing in those cities are part of four remaining back-to-backs for the champs (though maybe that Boston game will mean something in regard to the No. 1 seed in the East), and that several starters are likely to rest those nights, as was case March 18 vs. Clippers. |
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03-27-17 | Magic v. Raptors -9 | 112-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Double-revenge game for Toronto, which is chasing Boston for the Atlantic Division title and still hasn’t salted away the homecourt edge in the first round of the playoffs. The Raptors have played much-improved defense since the All-Star break, holding foes to 97.6 ppg in the 13 games since, compared with 104.3 ppg prior to that. Conversely, Orlando is playing it fast and loose, losing 5 of its last 6 through March 21 against the points while yielding 115 ppg. The Magic, who have no incentive to win games, might not have C Nikola Vucevic due to ankle and Achilles problems, and he’s been their leading scorer vs. the Raptors |
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03-26-17 | Blazers -6.5 v. Lakers | 97-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After years of taking their lumps against the Lakers, Portland has completely turned the tables on the once-great L.A. franchise and has won 11 straight in the series (9-2 vs. the points). The young Laker backcourt has been hurt by Blazer Gs C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard, who combined for 47 ppg in the first 3 meetings this season. McCollum shot 55% in those games, leading Portland to a 50.4% mark as a team. Los Angeles is yielding 118 ppg and 50% in its last 10 games. |
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03-26-17 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Nuggets | 115-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Much has changed since Denver won at New Orleans way back in October, when the Nuggets scored a 107-102 upset despite a 50-point game by Pelican PF Anthony Davis. Since then the leading scorer for the Nuggets that night, Jusuf Nurkic, was traded to Portland, and the Pels have acquired DeMarcus Cousins. New Orleans PG Jrue Holiday missed that game as well, and he’s been on form lately, helping guide New Orleans to a 6-4 SU and 7-2-1 spread mark in the last 10 games prior to hosting Memphis Tuesday. Nuggets just 5-5 SU and vs. the points in their last 10 at the Pepsi Center through March 21. |
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03-26-17 | Heat v. Celtics -5 | 108-112 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Boston Celtics are making the most of a critical late-season homestand and look to stay perfect in the stretch when they host the Miami Heat today. The Celtics weathered the storm of a 70-point performance by Phoenix Suns star Devin Booker in a 130-120 win Friday night, improving to 3-0 on their season-high six-game homestand. The streak has Boston one-half game behind first-place Cleveland in the Eastern Conference entering Saturday, but coach Brad Stevens wants a complete effort from his team after watching Booker make things interesting in the second half. |
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03-26-17 | Nets +7 v. Hawks | 107-92 | Win | 100 | 1 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta has been a money-burner at Philips Arena since mid-November, logging an 8-21 spread mark in its last 29 at home. One of those non-covers was a 110-105 victory over Brooklyn a few weeks ago (March 8), when Net backup G Sean Kilpatrick came off the bench with 27 points. Kilpatrick might be down with a hanstring injury, but PG Jeremy Lin should be available (he said his ankle twist wasn’t serious). Hawks can’t count on PG Dennis Schroder scoring 31 points as he did to lead all scorers in first goaround. Note Atlanta’s 19-28 mark as chalk this season through March 21. |
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03-25-17 | Wolves v. Blazers -6.5 | 100-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Portland won 8 of its last 10 through Monday to climb into the playoff conversation, just 1 game behind Denver for the final spot in the West. The Trail Blazers took the first meeting 95-89 behind an explosive 43-point game from G C.J. McCollum, winning in Minnesota without the services of star PG Damian Lillard. Lillard has since returned and is scoring 31 ppg and shooting 49% since the All-Star break. Minny is coming off a game last night in Los Angeles against the Lakers, and Timberwolves are just 2-19 SU and 6-14-1 vs. the spread at Portland the last few seasons. |
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03-25-17 | Raptors +2 v. Mavs | 94-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Toronto Raptors are doing just fine without star point guard Kyle Lowry, and they may be able to climb the standings in the Eastern Conference for his probable return in the playoffs. They will aim for their fifth straight win and potentially seize third place in the East when they visit the Dallas Mavericks today. Behind another monster effort from DeMar DeRozan - who has reached the 40-point mark in back-to-back games - Toronto rallied from 15 points down to grab a 101-84 win at Miami on Thursday. The triumph gave the Raptors a 10-5 record since Lowry was sidelined with a wrist injury at the All-Star break. |
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03-25-17 | Knicks v. Spurs -15.5 | 98-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The San Antonio Spurs still have a chance to catch the Golden State Warriors for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference but time is running out. The Spurs have little margin for error over the final 11 regular-season games and look to post their fourth consecutive victory when they host the New York Knicks today. San Antonio recorded a 97-90 victory over the Memphis Grizzlies on Thursday and coach Gregg Popovich was pleased with the 23-point performance by power forward LaMarcus Aldridge. The Knicks have dropped four straight games and nine of 11 after falling 110-95 to the Portland Trail Blazers on Thursday. |
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03-25-17 | Jazz v. Clippers -4 | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After L.A. took the first two meetings by handy margins, Utah turned the tables on the Clippers. The Jazz were leading the Northwest Division by 2½ games at the beginning of the last week, but hard-charging OKC is going to the whip in the stretch and putting pressure on them. The Jazz have PG George Hill, F Gordon Hayward and C Rudy Gobert all on the same page, but they might miss PF Derrick Favors matching up against Clip counterpart Blake Griffin. Also must note Utah’s 3-12 mark this season as a road dog. |
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03-24-17 | Wolves -6.5 v. Lakers | 119-130 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These teams aren’t that far apart in the standings, but they are miles apart in terms of talent on hand. Since the All-Star break, Minnesota C Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 29 ppg and 14 rpg, F Andrew Wiggins 22 ppg, and PG Ricky Rubio 16 ppg and 11 apg. Rubio has suddenly found his shooting touch, clicking on 48% of his attempts in his last 10 games through Monday night’s action. Minny likely to be on a 4-game losing streak after absorbing double-digit losses against Boston, Miami and New Orleans before hosting San Antonio Tuesday. The Lakers have lost 8 straight at Staples Center, covering only as larger home dogs. Hungry Timberwolves will add to that misery. |
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03-24-17 | 76ers +6.5 v. Bulls | 117-107 | Win | 100 | 23 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philadelphia had covered 16 of its last 19 after getting the money at Orlando Monday, as Sixer PF Dario Saric has made a convincing case for being selected rookie of the year. Saric has averaged 20 pts. and 8 boards since the All-Star break, and Philly C Jahlil Okafor could be available after resting his sore knee for a few games. Chicago is just 22-31 as home chalk the last two seasons, while the Sixers are 10-4 this year as single-digit road dogs. The Bulls held sway in first two meetings this season, winning and covering at home and on the road, but G Dwyane Wade has since been declared out for the season, and he played an important role in earlier series victories (20 ppg, 57% vs. the Sixers). Sixers have lost 12 straight to the Bulls, but had covered 8 of last 9 road games this season prior to kicking off this road trip in Orlando Monday night. |
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03-19-17 | Kings +13.5 v. Spurs | 102-118 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units San Antonio hasn’t lost to Sacto in a few years, but isn’t exactly running roughshod over the Kings this season, either, as Spurs have failed to cover any of the first three meetings. That includes March 8 at Verizon Center after departure of Boogie Cousins, when Coach Pop’s bunch had to rally from 37-15 after 1st Q (largest 1st-Q deficit in S.A. history!) and down 28 in 2nd Q before finally collaring Sacto in late going. Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge were rested that night, but Aldridge’s absence will now continue indefinitely as he undergoes a battery of tests for heart arrhythmia that could keep him out an extended period. Not greatly interested in laying another inflated price with Spurs, who had dropped six straight vs. line before being gifted with a shorthanded Golden State team on March 11. Though S.A. was effectively tied with Warriors for top playoff seed entering the week, Spurs have been winning a lot of close games lately. Not too keen to lay this sort of price. |
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03-19-17 | Blazers v. Heat -5.5 | 115-104 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami’s surge is almost becoming ‘72 Dolphins like, as Heat now 21-5 SU and 22-4 vs. line in last 26 thru March 14. Last Sunday’s close loss (but cover) at Indiana was the first time in that 26-game span that the SU and spread winners were different in a Miami game. Speaking of different, it is not the same Heat as the floundering version that lost by 7 at Portland way back on December 3, though remember that underrated Miami defense kept Damian Lillard & C.J. McCollum mostly in check that night, limiting them to combined 13 for 37 from floor. Both teams in pitched battles to squeeze into the back end of their respective conference playoff slots, though tech case more persuasive against Blazers, just 7-15 as road dog into March 14 at New Orleans |
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03-19-17 | Suns v. Pistons -10.5 | 95-112 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Just in the nick of time, Detroit looks to be developing a beachhead in East playoff chase, winning and covering 4 of last 5 through March 11 win over Knicks to hold the seventh slot in the traffic jam into this week for the final conference postseason invitations. Stan Van Gundy’s experiment with Tobias Harris as the sixth man also seems to have ended after Harris scored 23 points in the first half alone of that recent win over New York. Don’t want to completely dismiss improving Phoenix, whose 5-1 spread uptick was finally slowed in March 12 loss vs. desperate Portland. But also like long range revenge angle, as Pistons not likely to shoot a sickly 36% from the floor as was the case in their 7-point loss in the desert way back on November 7. |
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03-19-17 | Celtics -5 v. 76ers | 99-105 | Loss | -103 | 1 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philly still covering numbers (three straight after win over Lakers on March 12, improving spread mark to 12-3 last 15 prior to last Tuesday at Golden State), which Sixers have done on all three occasions this season vs. Boston, despite losing all of those SU vs. Celtics. That includes most-recent meeting on Feb. 15 at TD Garden, when Philly used 22 points from improving 6-10 Euro rookie import Dario Saric to stay within earshot. Still, Sixer technical case not airtight despite 23-8 home dog mark, as Boston a solid 23-13 vs. line on road into March 17 at Brooklyn, and Celtics still very much in a scrap with the East elite for the top four conference playoff seeds, all still up in the air into mid-March. |
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03-18-17 | Bucks v. Warriors -10.5 | 92-117 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Golden State had lost 5 of its last 7 SU prior to starting this 3-game homestand vs. Philly and Orlando. That tailspin, which not coincidentally corresponds almost directly to the injury to allstar F Kevin Durant, has the Warriors in danger of losing the top seed in the West. Golden State needed every one of Durant’s 33 points to hold on for a 124-121 victory at Milwaukee on Nov. 19. Golden State was 1-9 vs. the number last 10 through March 13. Still, would rather lay reasonable number than count on Buck side that’s 8-14 as a road dog. |
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03-18-17 | Jazz v. Bulls +6 | 86-95 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Utah F Gordon Hayward had an unusually poor shooting night (3 of 15) and was held to just 8 pts. back on Nov. 17 when these two first met this season. Look for the Jazz to turn the tables on Chicago this time around. Utah is 8-4 SU in its last 12 road games, and the Jazz have regained the services of PG George Hill after a brief absence. Chicago played in Washington last night, and the Bulls are just 1-4 this season vs. the number at home in 2nd of back-to-back games. |
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03-18-17 | Cavs +3.5 v. Clippers | 78-108 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland will well remember Clippers sailing to a 113-94 victory at Quicken Loans Arena back on Dec. 1. LeBron James made just 5 of 14 shots and only 6 of 11 FTs, while the Clipper Bench out scored the Cav reserves 46-28. Cleveland is feeling heat from Boston and Washington in the East, and it’s imperative that the Cavs have a successful road trip. This 4-game swing starts with a victory over Los Angeles. |
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03-17-17 | Rockets v. Pelicans +5 | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston faced the “twin towers” version of New Orleans on Feb. 23 and wasn’t impressed. The Rockets scored a 129-99 blowout victory in C DeMarcus Cousins’ debut with the Pelicans. N.O. has begun to adjust to the changes since then, however, as the Pels had a 4-1-1 spread record in their last 6 through. Cousins and F Anthony Davis have combined for 46 ppg and 23 rpg in their last 5 through March 13, and PG Jrue Holiday has dished 8 apg in that span (a bit above his seasonal avg.). The addition of NBA vet G Jordan Crawford on a 10-day deal appears a coup for the Pelicans, as he scored 16 ppg and shot 56% on his threes in his first 3 games. |
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03-17-17 | Raptors v. Pistons -4 | 87-75 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Detroit has been making the most of home court the last six weeks, covering 10 of 12 at the Palace prior to hosting Utah Wednesday. Pistons have held foes to 99 ppg at home, and top scorer F Tobias Harris didn’t appear to be hampered by a sore knee in scoring a season-high 28 pts. vs. New York Saturday. Toronto has hit a bit of a swoon, dropping 3 of 4 SU and vs. the points prior to hosting Dallas Monday, as absence of G Kyle Lowry might’ve begun to take a toll. Raptor star DeMar DeRozan has been held to 20 ppg and 40.7% in his last 5 games, and F DeMarre Carroll missed action recently with a sore ankle. |
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03-17-17 | Bulls v. Wizards -7 | 107-112 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago took first meeting vs. Washington, but that was back on Nov. 12, before Washington put things together and went 34-8 from Dec. 8 through March 12. The Wizards won the next two against the Bulls, although Chicago covered at the Verizon Center on Jan. 10. Washington has cooled off at home in the last month, covering only 3 of last 9 as host prior to facing Dallas Wednesday after ripping to a 14-1 spread mark in previous 15. Still, the Bulls had dropped 5 in a row SU and against the point spread through Sunday, scoring just 90 ppg and shooting 40.7%. Trust Wizard team that’s caught Boston and is breathing down Cleveland’s neck for the top spot in the East a bit more at this stage. |
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03-17-17 | Mavs v. 76ers +5.5 | 74-116 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Return to action of C Jahlil Okafor and sizzling shooting of rookie PF Dario Saric sparked three straight covers for Philly, including a SU road win at the Lakers through. The Sixers have had a few days off since visiting Golden State on Tuesday. This will be Dallas’ first game as a road favorite this season; so must give considerable weight to Philly’s remarkable 23-8 home dog mark. |
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