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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-11-23 | Packers v. Bengals +4.5 | 36-19 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cincinnati Bengals and Green Bay Packers get their respective preseasons underway in Ohio tonight, with the Packers firm favorites as Jordan Love looks to prove why he is QB1 for Green Bay. Factored into this line as well is the fact that Joe Burrow is out injured, meaning it will be Trevor Siemian and Jake Browning under center for Cincinnati. However, it feels like there has been an overreaction and there is value in taking the points with the Bengals. Cincinnati’s preseason record in recent years isn’t the greatest, but they do tend to run teams close. Only twice since 2019 have they lost by more than four points and there should be greater motivation in this game with both Siemian and Browning looking to make a case for why they should start the season if Burrow is unable to go. |
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08-10-23 | Texans v. Patriots +3 | 20-9 | Loss | -113 | 51 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams had their issues last season and the hope that they can improve in 2023 is a work in progress. Houston has a lot of youth on both sides of the ball as they added what they hope will be anchors for the franchise. New England does have the experience factor with Belichick as their head coach but they have to find ways to improve the offense. We know that the Patriots have some talent at skill positions but It remains to be seen how things will click on that side of the ball with O’Brien back to take over the play calling. As it stands, you have to give the edge to the team with some proven experience in this one. |
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08-10-23 | Cardinals v. Rays -172 | 5-2 | Loss | -172 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The most noteworthy aspect of this game is that the Rays are impressive at home (38-19), while the Cardinals are not good on the road (24-32). After that, breaking down the individual matchups makes this pick pretty clear. Tampa Bay has the edge in starting pitching, relief pitching, batting and base running. Defensively, these teams are even. Take the better team who also has the home field advantage. |
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08-10-23 | Blue Jays -126 v. Guardians | 3-4 | Loss | -126 | 2 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Toronto will turn to Alek Manoah (3-8, 5.72 ERA) in the finale against Cleveland's Noah Syndergaard (1-5, 6.75) in a battle of struggling right-handers. Manoah, 25, posted his first win in nearly one month on Friday despite allowing three runs on six hits -- including two homers -- in 6 2/3 innings of a 7-3 victory over the Boston Red Sox. Syndergaard, 30, endured a horrific night during his initial outing at Progressive Field. He yielded a career-high four homers and five runs total in six innings during a 7-4 setback to the Chicago White Sox on Saturday. |
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08-10-23 | Astros v. Orioles +1.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right-hander Dean Kremer (10-4, 4.61 ERA) will take the mound for the Orioles in the finale. He's looking for his first win since July 14.Kremer, 27, has received a no-decision in each of his past four starts. He allowed two runs and two hits in 5 1/3 against the New York Mets on Friday in his last outing. Kremer tossed his only career shutout against the Astros when he allowed four hits on Sept. 23, 2022. Overall, he is 2-0 with a 0.54 ERA in two career outings versus Houston, both coming last season. |
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08-09-23 | Astros v. Orioles -129 | 8-2 | Loss | -129 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Houston Astros needed a ninth-inning rally to win on Tuesday. The Baltimore Orioles have been a resilient team all season and continue to shine, winning seven of their last ten games including three wins against the Blue Jays followed by a sweep of the Mets. They have won four of their last five home bouts. Astros’ starter Cristian Javier has not been a reliable option. The veteran has squandered 19 runs in his last five outings spanning 25.2 innings. He just surrendered three runs in only 4.2 innings against the Yankees last time out. O’s starter Jack Flaherty posted a 3.03 ERA in July and was brilliant in his team debut, limiting the potent Blue Jays offense to one run in six innings. |
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08-09-23 | Rangers -1.5 v. A's | 0-2 | Loss | -162 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Montgomery will make his second start since a deadline trade from the St. Louis Cardinals today, seeking a second straight win. He had a successful Rangers debut, limiting the Miami Marlins to two runs in six innings in a 6-2 Rangers' home win on Friday. The 30-year-old has yet to get a decision with a 3.80 ERA in four career starts against Oakland. The A's are expected to give right-hander Freddy Tarnok (0-1, 6.75) the bulk of the work early in the game. The 24-year-old will make his fifth appearance for Oakland this season after beginning the year in the minors. He's never gone more than three innings, those coming when he threw the seventh, eighth and ninth innings of a 3-1 loss to the Houston Astros last month. Tarnok's only previous start came in an 8-3 road loss to the San Francisco Giants. He served up three runs in 2 2/3 innings, striking out four. |
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08-09-23 | Rockies v. Brewers -1.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Milwaukee starter, Houser picked up the win in his most recent start, allowing one run on four hits in six innings in a 14-1 victory over Pittsburgh last Thursday. Houser is 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA in four career starts against the Rockies. Flexen will be making his third start for the Rockies since being acquired off waivers from the Mets on July 13. In his last start, he got his first win with Colorado, giving up three runs on 10 hits over five innings in a 9-4 win over the Cardinals last Friday. Flexen began the season with Seattle, going 0-4 with a 7.71 ERA, before being traded to the Mets, who designated him for assignment the same day. He is 0-2 with an 8.68 ERA in three career appearances, including one start, vs. the Brewers. |
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08-08-23 | Rangers -1.5 v. A's | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even with Oakland's best starter on the mound for this one, they shouldn't stand a chance. Scherzer amid one of his worst seasons is still capable of shutting down the Athletics lineup. Sears won't keep Texas off the board, or at least hasn't done it yet with two tries. Oakland's bullpen is probably going to get rocked by the Rangers' lethal lineup. Take Texas for an easy win in game two. |
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08-08-23 | Cubs -133 v. Mets | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The red-hot Cubs offense will have its way with Carrasco who has struggled both over his last five games and at home overall this season. Carrasco has an ERA over eight at home this season and faces a Cubs team that is hitting .284 in the last ten games heading into this series and 19 home runs in 10 games. The Cubs' Taillon has been pitching like an ace over his past five starts, going 4-0 with an ERA of just over two in that span. He faces a Mets' lineup that is hitting just .224 over the last ten games heading into this series and has been shut out twice in that span. The Cubs are streaking and the Mets are fading. Ride those trends in this matchup. |
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08-08-23 | Royals v. Red Sox -168 | 9-3 | Loss | -168 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals are playing better recently however they have lost eight of their last ten road games. The Red Sox will be desperate. They view this game and series as a must-win as they look to keep their wildcard hopes intact. Royals’ starter Brady Singer is poor on the road, issuing a 6.91 ERA in 43 road innings this season. Red Sox’ starter Kutter Crawford has been reliable, conceding only five runs in his last 20.2 innings. This includes stellar performances against the Cubs, Giants and Mariners. |
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08-07-23 | Rangers -1.5 v. A's | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers send Dane Dunning (9-4, 3.14 ERA) to the mound today. The right-hander is coming off one of his best starts of the season. He held the visiting Chicago White Sox to one run on three hits and a walk in 7 1/3 innings, and struck out a career-high 11 in an 11-1 win. Dunning has faced the A's six times, including five starts, and is 1-0 with a 3.65 ERA spanning 24 2/3 innings. He had 23 strikeouts and 13 walks along the way. Oakland counters with rookie lefty Ken Waldichuk (2-7, 6.52), who has been used as a starter and as a reliever this season. His last appearance came in a start on Tuesday. He gave up four runs on one hit and three walks with five strikeouts in a 7-3 loss to the host Los Angeles Dodgers. The left-hander wasn't effective against the Rangers in his lone appearance against them this year. He ended up with a no-decision after allowing four runs (three earned) on seven hits and five walks over five innings during a 9-7 win in 10 innings on May 12. |
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08-07-23 | Yankees -154 v. White Sox | 1-5 | Loss | -154 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ace right-hander Gerrit Cole is set to start for the New York Yankees against the host Chicago White Sox today in the opener of a nine-game road trip. After going 1-1 with a 2.20 ERA in five July starts covering 32 2/3 innings, Cole defeated the Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday, scattering two runs and four hits in seven innings. He struck out eight. White Sox righty Dylan Cease (4-5, 4.61), who is set to oppose Cole, was nowhere near as sharp in his most recent outing. Cease was chased from Wednesday's start at Texas after allowing seven runs on seven hits and three walks in 1 2/3 innings. Cease is 0-1 with a 9.45 ERA in three career starts against the Yankees over 13 1/3 innings. In four starts against the White Sox, Cole is 3-1 with a 3.91 ERA in 25 1/3 innings. |
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08-07-23 | Cubs -101 v. Mets | 2-11 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chicago Cubs are one of the hottest teams in the majors, winners of 15 of their last 19 contests. The New York Mets, in turn, can stake a claim to being one of the coldest. Chicago will turn to left-hander Drew Smyly (8-7, 4.71 ERA) in the series opener today against right-hander Kodai Senga (7-6, 3.25). Smyly, 34, started the season strong by posting a 7-4 record with a 3.38 ERA in his first 15 outings, but he is just 1-3 with an 8.40 ERA in his last seven. He received a no-decision on Wednesday after allowing five runs on six hits -- including three homers -- in 4 2/3 innings against the Cincinnati Reds. Smyly improved to 4-0 with a 2.17 ERA in seven career games (five starts) versus the Mets after permitting two runs on four hits in five innings of a 7-2 victory on May 23. Senga, 30, sustained his first loss since June 23 on Wednesday after yielding three runs on 11 hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 3-0 setback to the Kansas City Royals. He dropped his lone career encounter with the Cubs on May 24 after allowing three runs on six hits in five innings of a 4-2 setback in Chicago. |
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08-06-23 | Marlins v. Rangers -122 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Alcantara has looked more like the pitcher that won the NL Cy Young last season in his last few starts, though the Marlins’ inability to put runs on the board has hampered him again in 2023. He has five starts this season where he threw at least seven innings and allowed two or fewer runs that ended up without a victory. The inability of Miami to generate much in the way of offense could prove to be a problem against a Rangers team that is the most prolific offense in all of baseball. Heaney has been decent this season and is coming off one of his best starts of the year his last time out. With the major edge at the plate and playing at home, you have to back the Rangers in this contest. |
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08-06-23 | Mets v. Orioles -168 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bradish and the Orioles should be favorites against a Mets team that seems to have lost steam since dealing away the team's best two pitchers. The Mets came to Baltimore after three straight losses to the woeful Royals prior to the weekend. Quintana is making just his fourth start of the season and faces an Orioles team hitting .260 vs. lefties this season. Bradish has pitched exceptionally well at home this season with an ERA of just 2.38 in eight home starts this season. |
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08-06-23 | White Sox v. Guardians -136 | 5-3 | Loss | -136 | 2 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chicago White Sox have nothing to play for while the Cleveland Guardians are seeking first place in the AL Central. The White Sox look demoralized and have been abysmal, dropping seven of their last ten games including a 4-2 loss on Friday. The Guardians are a solid 7-4 in their last 11 home bouts. Guardians’ Xzavion Curry is now being used as a starter. He has been dominant out of the bullpen, registering a 2.90 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. Curry has contained the White Sox, limiting them to only two runs in 7.1 innings this season. |
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08-05-23 | Braves -148 v. Cubs | 6-8 | Loss | -148 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves have a distinct advantage on the mound on Saturday with Elder and his under-three ERA on the road taking on the Cubs who will utilize a bullpen game in this spot. The Braves' offense has been the best in baseball over the last three months and they come into this series after hitting six home runs in the final two games of their series with the Angels. Warm weather and summer breezes at Wrigley Field should be welcomed by the powerful Braves' lineup this weekend. The Cubs have been playing excellent baseball but this one will be tough to overcome. I like the Braves to cool off the Cubs on Saturday with some offensive fireworks. |
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08-05-23 | Rays -140 v. Tigers | 2-4 | Loss | -140 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Civale, who was dealt by the Cleveland Guardians to the Tampa Bay Rays for first base prospect Kyle Manzardo, will make his Rays debut against the host Detroit Tigers. Civale posted victories in his last two starts for the Guardians. He allowed just one run in eight innings against the Kansas City Royals on July 25, then blanked for the Chicago White Sox for six innings on Sunday. He has been dominant against the Tigers in his career, going 7-0 with a 2.06 ERA in 10 starts. Tigers starter Skubal has struggled a bit in his last three starts, even with his improved control, and the Tigers have issues offensively. |
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08-05-23 | Astros -136 v. Yankees | 1-3 | Loss | -136 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Astros are 13-7 since the All-Star break, and they evened the four-game series with a 7-3 victory on Friday. Yainer Diaz hit a three-run homer in the first inning, and Yordan Alvarez hit a solo shot in the fifth. Kyle Tucker added a two-run double in the sixth, giving him eight RBIs over his past six games. Verlander posted a 6-5 record and a 3.16 ERA for the Mets in the first year of a two-year, $86.7 million contract he signed in December after helping the Astros capture their second World Series title in team history. Verlander is 10-7 with a 3.24 ERA in 25 regular-season starts against the Yankees. He last faced them on July 25 in New York, when he pitched six shutout innings in a 9-3 win to improve to 5-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his past eight regular-season starts against the Yankees. |
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08-04-23 | Marlins v. Rangers -140 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
The Marlins have had their struggles coming out of the All-Star break as they entered Thursday 5-12 since that point. Miami does have Luzardo on the hill in this contest but he has had his share of issues lately, failing to record a win in his last three starts and failing to make it through the fifth inning in two of those. The Marlins have sputtered offensively all season long and that doesn’t work well when your opposition is the most explosive offensive team in the league. Texas bolstered their rotation with the addition of Max Scherzer and Montgomery. With better offensive support, Montgomery should be able to turn that win-loss record around relatively quickly. The Rangers are tough at home and that helps them earn the win in this contest. |
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08-04-23 | Astros -138 v. Yankees | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown has had two consecutive solid outings, allowing 10 hits and four runs in 12 innings with Houston winning both of the games. New York starting pitcher Luis Severino is coming off his worst outing of the season after allowing 10 hits and nine runs in just 3 ⅓ innings when losing to Baltimore 9-3 last Sunday. Houston has won four of its last five games and have dominated the Yankees of late winning each of the last seven head to head with New York. Houston's trio of power is back together with the return of Yordan Alvrez. Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman and Alvarez have combined to hit 55 home runs with 202 RBIs, which will be tough on Yankees pitching. |
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08-04-23 | Nationals v. Reds -1.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds send their hottest pitcher to the mound in the series opener in right-hander Graham Ashcraft (6-7, 5.31 ERA). In Sunday's 9-0 win over the Dodgers, Ashcraft allowed just five hits in six shutout innings to record his third win in five starts. Ashcraft limited the Nationals to one run and seven hits over six innings on July 5, earning the win in Cincinnati's 9-2 victory. In his brief career, Ashcraft has made two starts against the Nationals and won them both, posting a 1.38 ERA over 13 innings. He has allowed two runs and 11 hits. Washington sends lefty Patrick Corbin (7-11, 5.07) to the mound on today. Corbin, who is making his 23rd start of the season, is coming off a win in his last start. Against the New York Mets on Saturday, he surrendered four runs on six hits over 5 2/3 innings in an 11-6 victory. Things didn't go as well when Corbin started against the Reds on July 4. He was tagged for six runs on 10 hits, three walks and a hit batter over five innings and took the loss in Cincinnati's 8-4 win. |
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08-03-23 | Mariners v. Angels -148 | 5-3 | Loss | -148 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ohtani (9-5, 3.43 ERA), who had his turn skipped in Atlanta because of blister issues, is scheduled to make his first mound start in a week today against Mariners rookie right-hander Bryan Woo (1-3, 4.96). Ohtani is coming off his first career shutout, a one-hitter in a 6-0 victory over the host Detroit Tigers on July 27. He walked three and struck out eight in the 111-pitch outing. In eight career starts against the Mariners, Ohtani is 5-0 with a 2.02 ERA. He beat them 4-3 in Seattle on April 5, allowing one run on three hits over six innings, with four walks and eight strikeouts. Ohtani didn't get a decision in a 5-4 Angels win on June 9 over Seattle in Anaheim, giving up three runs on three hits in five innings, with five walks and six strikeouts. Woo, who is 0-2 with a 8.16 ERA in his past three starts, will be facing the Angels for the second time. On June 10, he allowed two runs on four hits in 4 2/3 innings during a no-decision. |
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08-03-23 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 10 | 3-5 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After falling 6-5 to the National League Central-leading Reds on Monday, Chicago tied a club record with seven homers in Tuesday's 20-9 victory. Then Wednesday, the Cubs went deep five times and overcame two three-run deficits for a 16-6 win. The Cubs, who enter Thursday's action in third place in the division but just three games behind the Reds, have averaged 8.1 runs while batting .321 with 30 homers during their current 12-3 stretch. Scheduled Reds starter Luke Weaver comes in with a 2-3 record and 6.80 ERA. Weaver is 1-3 with an 8.59 ERA in seven career starts against the Cubs. |
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08-03-23 | Jets -125 v. Browns | 16-21 | Loss | -125 | 33 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There will be no starters playing in the Hall of Fame Game, but there will be some young talent trying to make an impression. Jets QB Chris Streveler, the 2022 preseason hero, passed for 348 yards and five TDs last August as the Jets beat the Eagles, Falcons and Giants. Streveler's performance helped coach Robert Saleh improve to 5-0-1 in preseason games since taking over in 2021. Take the points. |
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08-03-23 | White Sox v. Rangers -1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers dominated the first two games, outscoring the White Sox by a combined 13-1. Texas starters Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning struck out 11 batters apiece in the first two games of the series. Enter Scherzer, who has 121 strikeouts in 107 2/3 innings. Scherzer (9-4, 4.01 ERA) will be appearing for his sixth team in 16 seasons after the New York Mets traded him to the Rangers for shortstop prospect Luisangel Acuna. The deal also included cash to pay roughly half of the $58 million that is owed to the right-hander for the rest of this season and next season. On Friday, in his last start for the Mets, Scherzer allowed six hits and a run in seven innings against the visiting Washington Nationals. Scherzer has made 24 career starts against the White Sox, but none since 2016. He is 13-6 with a 2.43 ERA in 163 innings against them. The Rangers also got a big boost to their lineup after Corey Seager returned last night and picked up where he left off going 2-4 with a home run. |
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08-02-23 | White Sox v. Rangers -134 | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These teams have completely different directions moving forward. The visiting Chicago White Sox (43-64 entering the series) traded away a solid chunk of their roster. Hosting them is a Texas Rangers (60-46) team that is furiously trying to fend off the Astros for the AL West crown. t was a busy trade deadline for the South Siders, who said goodbye to Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly, Jake Burger, and Kenyan Middleton. Offensively, there's no need to worry about the Rangers. Led by Adolis Garcia, Texas is driving in more runs than every other team in the league. They also lead baseball in batting average and OBP. Don't be concerned about pop, as Texas is second in slugging and seventh in home runs. A top-10 walk rate rounds out the AL's best offense. There is a massive difference in offensive production. It's unlikely that the White Sox will hold down the Rangers' bats, while it's much more likely that Chicago is silent. |
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08-02-23 | Padres -1.5 v. Rockies | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockies have been selling ahead of the deadline while the Padres have kicked the tires on adding pieces. San Diego reportedly added Rich Hill to their pitching staff ahead of the deadline and were looking at other pieces. The Padres are the better team with plenty of talent that has underachieved all season long. With that said, Musgrove has been rolling along, posting an 8-1 mark with a 1.66 ERA over 11 starts since June 1. Meanwhile, Freeland leads the National League in losses and has dropped his last seven decisions with his last victory coming back on May 14. San Diego knows that they have to take care of business here if they want to make a run. Look for Musgrove to handcuff the Rockies and deliver the victory here. |
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08-02-23 | Brewers -126 v. Nationals | 2-3 | Loss | -126 | 3 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The additions of both Santana and Canha should bring about a big increase in the Brewers' lineup overall and specifically against left-handed pitching. Canha has 43 home runs in his career vs. left-handers and Santana has an average of .274 in his career against lefties including 74 home runs. Brewers' starter Miley has been excellent on the road this season with an ERA of just 2.73 and a 2-1 record. The Brewers have much more at stake in this series than the Nats and should play with more urgency. |
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08-01-23 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -105 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Arizona ace Zac Gallen (11-5, 3.36 ERA) is set to start. The right-hander is winless in his past three starts, allowing 11 runs and 18 hits in 18 1/3 innings in team losses to the Toronto Blue Jays, Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals. One night after he had to be scratched from a scheduled start because of an upset stomach, Giants right-hander Alex Cobb (6-3, 2.97 ERA) will attempt to go in the rematch. Cobb is coming off one of his best outings of the season, having shut out the A's on three hits over six innings in a no-decision on July 25. The 35-year-old veteran will be facing the Diamondbacks for the second time this season, having shut them out on seven hits for 7 1/3 innings in a 6-2 road win on May 11. He is 3-2 with a 4.93 in seven career starts against Arizona. |
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08-01-23 | Rays -111 v. Yankees | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees head into their first game after today's trade deadline passes with 13 losses in their last 20 games. In their final game of July, the Tampa Bay Rays resembled the group that won their first 13 games and dominated the opening weeks of the season. Zach Eflin (11-6, 3.64 ERA), who has tied a career high in victories, will start on today much to the relief of the Rays. Eflin exited his start last Wednesday against the Miami Marlins due to left knee discomfort after allowing five runs in four innings but avoided an injured list stint and was cleared to start. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.12 ERA in three career starts against the Yankees. He earned the win on May 14 in New York when he allowed four runs on seven hits over six innings in Tampa Bay's 8-7 victory. Carlos Rodon (1-3, 5.75) makes his fifth start since returning from a lengthy IL stint due to a forearm injury and subsequent back ailment. After losing his first three outings, Rodon allowed one run on four hits in 5 2/3 innings in a 3-1 win over the Mets last Wednesday. Rodon is 0-1 with a 4.19 ERA in four career starts against the Rays. |
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08-01-23 | Phillies v. Marlins -123 | 3-1 | Loss | -123 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Phillies’ starter Ranger Suarez has not been reliable. The veteran has squandered four runs in back-to-back starts and has an ERA over six on the month. Miami scored four runs in 5.2 innings in a 5-3 Marlins victory in the lone meeting against Suarez this season. Marlins’ starter Sandy Alcantara is starting to resemble the ace we saw in last year’s Cy Young season. He just dazzled in a complete game against the Rays and has conceded two or fewer runs in three of his last four outings. |
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07-31-23 | Red Sox +121 v. Mariners | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Red Sox have consistently played up to their competition this season. In fact, Boston has the most wins in the big leagues against teams that are .500 or better this season. Pivetta has thrived in his role as the primary innings eater in games the Red Sox have turned to an opener. His WHIP is an impressive 0.50 over his last three appearances and he's not allowed a run in any of those appearances. He also comes into this game with five full days of rest since pitching five shutout innings against the Braves last Tuesday night. The Red Sox seem to have found their offense again after struggling through the early part of July. They are batting .265 as a team in the last ten games and averaging close to five runs per game in that span. Additionally, they have hit 12 home runs in those ten games. Look for Boston's left-handed heavy lineup to get to Kirby in this one and pick up a much-needed win in Seattle. |
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07-31-23 | Reds +110 v. Cubs | 6-5 | Win | 110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Riding a 16-inning scoreless stretch, Abbott aims for a third straight victory when the Reds visit Stroman and Cubs tonight in the opener of a four-game series. Cincinnati is a half-game ahead of Milwaukee, and Abbott (6-2, 1.90 ERA) continues to shine since making his major league debut on June 5. The left-hander has endured one rough outing in 10 starts, allowing six runs and nine hits in 4 1/3 innings against the Brewers on July 7. The Cubs have totaled 44 runs while winning five of their last six home games. However, Stroman (10-7, 3.51) is 1-3 with an 8.00 ERA in his last six starts after going 9-4 with a 2.28 ERA in his first 16. The right-hander allowed seven runs and nine hits in 3 1/3 innings against the Chicago White Sox on Wednesday. |
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07-31-23 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -130 | 4-2 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While Bassitt was hit hard by the O's in his earlier matchup against them, that game was on the road. Bassitt has been dominant at home this season with an ERA of just 2.24 and six wins in seven decisions. He also gets the advantage of facing an Orioles lineup that has struggled as of late. Baltimore is hitting just .194 as a team over the course of the last ten games. Orioles' starter Gibson defeated the Blue Jays earlier this season but has an ERA close to five overall and relies on pitching to contact. He has just a 7.3 K/9 rate on the season and that can be dangerous against a Blue Jays' lineup that has power and can hit to all fields. This is a critical series for the Blue Jays if they want to get back in the division title hunt. The Jays have already dropped five of six to Baltimore so they'll be with a bit of desperation here. |
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07-30-23 | Mariners v. Diamondbacks +102 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Diamondbacks have lost three of their last five games. Despite their slump, they have scored 13 runs in their last three games and have done a good job batting against right-handers and Castillo has been shaky on the mound in recent starts, giving up 15 runs in his last five starts. He gave up 10 runs in his last three starts in Arizona. The Mariners have struggled against right-handers this season and Kelly has done a good job on the mound for the Diamondbacks, especially at home where he gave up seven runs in his last four starts. He gave up four runs in his last two home starts. Diamondbacks are 7-2 in Merrill Kelly's last nine starts. |
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07-30-23 | Cubs +118 v. Cardinals | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chicago Cubs are one of the hottest squads in the big leagues. They are in NL wildcard contention after winning nine of their last ten games. This is a motivated team playing with confidence. The Cardinals have only won two of their last eight games and are out of Wildcard contention. Cubs’ starter Kyle Hendricks has been reliable, allowing just four runs in his last two outings spanning 10.1 innings. The veteran usually silences the Cardinals, sporting a stellar 2.69 ERA and a 13-3 record in 25 career meetings against the rivals. The Cubs' hot offense should hit Matz. He has yet to earn a win at home. |
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07-30-23 | Guardians -138 v. White Sox | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chicago White Sox have lost six of their last seven overall, five of their last six played at home and Chicago has lost seven of its last eight when playing against a team from the American League. Chicago is just 23rd and runs scored and does not score enough, as the White Sox are 24th in team ERA at 4.62. Cleveland struggles as well producing runs and is just 24th with 434 but the Guardians have a far better pitching staff that is 6th in baseball in team ERA at 3.83. Cleveland starting pitcher Aaron Civale has held each of his last five opponents to two earned runs or less while allowing a total of six runs in 36 â…“ innings. Chicago starting pitcher Michael Kopech gave up four runs last time out when losing to the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday 7-5 and has allowed four earned runs in two of the last three outings. |
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07-29-23 | Reds v. Dodgers OVER 10.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I do not understand how the Reds keep winning with Weaver taking the mound, but I do know that he is going to give up a bunch of runs in very few innings. He always does. Meanwhile, the Dodgers will turn to Emmet Sheehan, and I suspect his days as a starter are numbered as the Dodgers buy up pieces at the trade deadline. Sheehan has made 6 starts, and he has gotten progressively worse in each one. In his last 3 starts, he has only gotten out of the 4th inning once, and he has given up 17 runs in a combined 12.1 innings. He walked 12 in those 3 starts, and those free bases have usually scored. The devil-may-care Reds shouldn’t have trouble scoring on him either. The weather forecast is for hot temperatures with winds blowing out. Look for plenty of runs to be scored by both sides. |
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07-29-23 | Rays v. Astros -122 | 4-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Rookie right-hander Taj Bradley (5-6, 5.30 ERA) is scheduled to start for the Rays on Saturday. He did not factor into the decision of his most recent start against the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday after allowing three runs on five hits and one walk with six strikeouts over five innings in a 5-3 loss. Bradley is winless over his past five starts, going 0-3 with an 8.46 ERA. Bradley earned the victory in his lone career appearance against the Astros on April 24, allowing three runs on four hits with six strikeouts over five innings in an 8-3 home win. Rookie right-hander Hunter Brown (6-7, 4.19 ERA) has the starting assignment for the Astros. He logged a quality start but did not get a decision against the Oakland Athletics on Sunday after allowing two runs on six hits while recording four strikeouts over six innings in the Astros' 3-2 victory. Even with that solid outing, Brown is 0-4 with a 6.30 ERA over his last six starts. Brown is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA over three career appearances (one start) against the Rays. He tossed seven scoreless innings at Tampa Bay on April 26, allowing two hits and two walks while notching eight strikeouts in a 1-0 victory. |
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07-29-23 | Twins -1.5 v. Royals | 7-10 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Lyles is one of the worst pitchers in baseball. He has a 6.19 ERA paired with a 5.01 xERA and 5.45 FIP in 19 starts this season. If the Royals weren’t so bad, he would have been gone weeks ago. But, Kansas City is at the bottom of the division and the American League, so Lyles will continue to throw batting practice on the mound every 5 days. That day is today, and I’m expecting another bashing of Lyles. The veteran ranks in the 8th percentile in xSLG, 17th in barrel rate, 22nd in xBA and 11th in whiff rate among pitchers this season. At home with Lyles on the mound, the Royals are 0-9 straight up and 2-7 against the spread. Bailey Ober has allowed 3 runs or less in 15 of his 16 starts. He has a 2.76 ERA paired with a 3.52 xERA and a 3.59 FIP and has been even better away from Minnesota. On the road, Ober is 4-1 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.830 WHIP in 6 starts. He’s limited hitters to just a .196 batting average and .552 OPS during those 37.1 innings which gives me confidence he can limit a struggling Royals lineup. |
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07-28-23 | Rays v. Astros +106 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right-hander Cristian Javier (7-2, 4.32 ERA) has the starting assignment for the Astros today. He allowed two runs on one hit with five strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings against the Oakland Athletics on Saturday but tied a career high with six walks and took the loss in a 4-1 defeat. Javier is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA over three career starts against Tampa Bay. He twirled six shutout innings at Tampa Bay in his final regular-season start last season, allowing two hits and two walks with seven strikeouts in a 2-1 victory. Left-hander Shane McClanahan (11-1, 2.89 ERA) is scheduled to start the series opener for the Rays. He did not factor into the decision of his last start on Saturday against the Baltimore Orioles after surrendering five runs on five hits and three walks with five strikeouts over four innings in the Rays' 6-5 loss. McClanahan held Baltimore hitless over his first three innings before allowing five runs in the fourth. He is winless over his last four starts and has pitched to a 7.02 ERA during that span. McClanahan is 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA in two career starts against the Astros, both of which came down the stretch last season. He has recorded five strikeouts and five walks over nine innings. The Rays continued their slumping ways on Wednesday, falling 7-1 to the Miami Marlins to complete a 2-4 homestand. Tampa Bay has dropped eight of 10 games, fell to 5-15 in July and is 1-5-1 in its last seven series. |
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07-28-23 | Guardians -144 v. White Sox | 0-3 | Loss | -144 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are expected to go with bullpen games on Friday, with Chicago turning to Touki Toussaint (0-3, 4.06 ERA) against Cleveland's Xzavion Curry (3-0, 2.98). Toussaint, whom the White Sox claimed off waivers from Cleveland in June, allowed seven runs and six hits in 1 1/3 innings in his lone career appearance against the Guardians in 2019. Curry has pitched to a 2.08 ERA in three career appearances against the White Sox, all this year, covering 4 1/3 innings. His longest outing of the season, five innings, came in his first appearance on April 3 against the Oakland A's. Two of his 26 appearances have been starts. |
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07-28-23 | Angels +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 1-4 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Since the All-Star break, the Angels are hitting .259 BA/.354 OBP/.491 SLG/.846 OPS, averaging 6.4 runs per game. Even without Mike Trout, this lineup can make things difficult for Jays starter Gausman, who gave up four long balls in his last start (LA has the third-most HRs in MLB). Giolito held the Blue Jays to two runs and four hits in six frames on July 4 and is coming off a nine-strikeout game in his last outing with the White Sox. Toronto has been hot at the dish this month, but it's an inconsistent ballclub, with a 7-5 post-All-Star break record despite its impressive hitting stats. It's struggled to cover the run line as betting favorites no matter the venture, but especially at home, where it scores just 4.2 runs per game this year. LA, averages 5.2 runs on the road. |
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07-27-23 | Guardians +100 v. White Sox | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cleveland Guardians are seeking first place in the AL Central and continue to excel, winning three consecutive series. The Chicago White Sox continue to be a disappointment, losing five straight and seven of their last eight games. Guardians’ starter Tanner Bibee has quietly been one of the better young pitchers in the entire big leagues. The rookie just completed seven shutout innings against the Phillies and is sporting a dazzling 1.14 ERA in his five outings this month. I expect his success to continue against an inconsistent White Sox offense that has plated four or fewer runs in four of their last five games. |
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07-27-23 | Cubs +100 v. Cardinals | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Justin Steele has enjoyed more success against the St. Louis Cardinals than against any other opponent this season. He will get another crack at them today when the Cubs face the Cardinals to open a four-game series in St. Louis. Steele (10-3, 2.95 ERA) is 3-0 with a 2.95 ERA in three starts against the Cardinals in 2023. In his latest outing, the left-hander allowed two runs on six hits in 6 1/3 innings as the Cubs beat St. Louis 4-3 on Friday. St. Louis will counter Steele with Miles Mikolas (6-5, 4.33 ERA), who will try to rebound from one of his worst starts of the season. The right-hander allowed the Cubs five runs on 11 hits and a walk in five innings during a no-decision on Saturday. Mikolas is 0-0 with a 5.79 ERA in two starts against the Cubs this season. |
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07-26-23 | Cubs -115 v. White Sox | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams could be drastically different as far as their roster composition is concerned by the time the trade deadline passes next week. Stroman has struggled at times of late after a strong start to the season but is still a solid option at the front of the rotation. The Cubs are the lone team in the NL Central with a positive run differential and hope to make up some ground in a weak NL Central. Meanwhile, Lynn has been inconsistent as you don’t know if he’ll give you seven shutout innings or get blitzed for five-plus runs in any given start. The fact that he’s been scorched by the long ball all season doesn’t bode well for the Pale Hose, especially with as sizzling as Bellinger has been in the month of July. The Cubs still have something to play for at this point, which is something that can’t be said for the White Sox. Look for Stroman to get back on track as the Cubs earn the win on getaway day on the south side. |
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07-26-23 | Orioles +101 v. Phillies | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles are a team that finds ways to win even when it seems like the odds are stacked against them. On Saturday, they faced Rays' lefty McClanahan who had been dominant at home and jumped out to a 5-0 lead on their way to a 6-5 win. On Monday, working without their top two relievers in Felix Bautista and Yennier Cano, the Orioles pulled out a 3-2 win over the Phils. On Wednesday night, the Orioles have Bradish on the mound against a struggling Phillies team. Bradish has an ERA under one in his last three starts and has a K/9 rate of nearly 10 on the road. Phillies' starter Suarez has struggled at home with an ERA approaching six and has gone 0-2 in his last three starts with an ERA of 5.40. Look for the Orioles to once again find a way and pull out a victory to close the series with the Phillies. |
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07-26-23 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -151 | 11-7 | Loss | -151 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Arizona starter Zac Gallen has been lights out pitching at home this season where he sports a sterling 1.48 ERA and a flawless 9-0 record. St. Louis starter, Flaherty hasn’t been as sharp on the road, where he gave up 13 runs in his last four starts. He gave up eight runs in his last three starts against the Diamondbacks. The Cardinals have lost three of their last four road games. |
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07-25-23 | Pirates v. Padres -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pittsburgh has lost 11 of its last 14 overall and the Pirates have dropped 16 in the last 21 playing on the road. Pittsburgh is well down the standings in the run line, as the Pirates are 45-54 against the run line. The Padres have won four of the last six and have won five of the last six at home. Pittsburgh starting pitcher Rich Hill has been hit hard in each of the last five starts allowing a total of 19 runs in only 26 ⅔ innings with the Pirates losing three of the five. In contrast, San Diego starting pitcher Blake Snell has had 11 consecutive strong outings allowing one earned run or less in 10 of the 11. Snell was on the mound in late June when San Diego lost to Pittsburgh, but the left-hander gave up just two earned runs and received little run support as San Diego scored just one run. |
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07-25-23 | Reds v. Brewers -143 | 4-3 | Loss | -143 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Burnes (9-5, 3.49 ERA) will be opposed by rookie left-hander Andrew Abbott (5-2, 2.10) in the matchup of the top two teams in the National League Central standings. Burnes is 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA in 17 career appearances, including seven starts, against the Reds. He is 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA in three starts against them this season. Milwaukee took the series opener 3-2 on Monday night on Christian Yelich's walk-off single in the ninth off Alexis Diaz to move the Brewers 1 1/2 games in front of the Reds in the Central. The Brewers, who swept three games at Cincinnati to open the second half, improved to 9-2 this season against the Reds, who had their five-game winning streak snapped. Burnes is returning to the form that earned him the 2021 NL Cy Young Award, winning his last four starts with a 1.33 ERA, giving up just four runs over 27 innings. He has 36 strikeouts, including 13 and 10 in his last two starts, while walking nine over the four-game span. Abbott will be making his 10th career start and fourth against Milwaukee. Abbott won his first start versus the Brewers, allowing just one hit over six scoreless innings, but was tagged for six runs in 4 1/3 innings in a 7-3 loss in the second matchup on July 7. |
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07-25-23 | Cubs -107 v. White Sox | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs come into this matchup as the hotter team after taking each of their last three games. The White Sox return home after a 3-6 road trip and are nearly 20 games under .500 at this point and likely to be trading away some veteran players as they try to fix their roster. Cubs starter Hendricks is not a power arm but does tend to keep the ball on the ground which should play well against a White Sox team that has become reliant on the long ball to score runs. The Cubs, however, can play more of a contact style of play and have a superior defense to their crosstown rivals. White Sox starter Kopech has an ERA over six and has struggled with his command all season. Look for the Cubs to exploit his struggles and pick up a win in the series opener. |
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07-24-23 | Blue Jays v. Dodgers -120 | 6-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Dodgers will send rookie right-hander Michael Grove (2-2, 6.40 ERA) to the mound today. Grove, who has never faced the Blue Jays, is coming off consecutive wins for the first time in his young career, giving up one run over five innings on Tuesday at Baltimore. Grove had a bit of a breakthrough against the Orioles, using a cut fastball to deal with left-handed hitters, who have been giving him trouble. The Blue Jays will counter with right-hander Jose Berrios (8-7, 3.39), who has a 1.47 ERA over his last three starts but does not have a win to show for his efforts. In his most recent outing, Wednesday against the San Diego Padres, Berrios gave up two runs over six innings while tying a season high with nine strikeouts. Berrios has faced the Dodgers once. In a start in 2017, he gave up four runs in four innings while taking the loss as a member of the Minnesota Twins. The Blue Jays have lost five in a row against the National League club. Los Angeles has also won nine of the last 10 meetings between the teams. |
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07-24-23 | Rangers v. Astros +100 | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right-hander Brandon Bielak (5-5, 3.46 ERA) will start the series opener for the Astros today. He twirled 5 2/3 scoreless innings in a 4-1 win over the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday, allowing one hit and three walks while recording four strikeouts. Bielak is 2-1 with a 1.02 ERA in three starts since returning from Triple-A Sugar Land on July 3. In seven career relief appearances against the Rangers, Bielak is 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA. He last faced Texas on June 15, 2022, logging one scoreless inning. Right-hander Jon Gray (6-5, 3.31) will get the nod for the Rangers today. He is winless over his last seven starts, pitching to an 0-4 record with a 4.66 ERA during that span. Gray last recorded a victory on June 2 against the Seattle Mariners when he worked seven scoreless innings while allowing two hits and one walk. Gray is 1-3 with a 3.94 ERA in six career starts against the Astros. He was Texas' pitcher of record in a 5-3 loss on June 30 after allowing five runs on seven hits and two walks with four strikeouts. |
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07-24-23 | Mariners v. Twins +104 | 3-4 | Win | 104 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 2020 runner-up for the American League Cy Young Award behind Cleveland's Shane Bieber, Maeda missed nearly two months earlier this season with a triceps injury. He is 2-1 with a 2.73 ERA in five starts since his return, allowing 18 hits while striking out 36 in 26 1/3 innings. The 35-year-old Maeda, who missed the entire 2022 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery, is 0-0 with a 2.61 ERA in two career starts against the Mariners. The Mariners' Luis Castillo has been vulnerable to left-handed bats this season (.747 OPS). Left-handed batters have accounted for 12 of the 19 homers he has surrendered. The Twins are an MLB-best 8-2 since the All-Star Break. |
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07-23-23 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | 3-2 | Loss | -133 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Astros despite their loss last night, have been playing pretty well winning 5 out of the last 8 games since their return from the All-Star break. In 5 of the wins, 4 of which they defeated their opponents by at least 2 runs. Expect the Astros to bounce back against one of the worst teams in the MLB and especially during games that are played during the day. The Athletics have lost close to 85% of the games that have been played during the day, losing 39 out of 46 games. It is also important to note that the Astros had won 9 straight games against the Athletics before losing yesterday. As the price for the ML is a little steep, I expect the Astros to win on the road in dominant fashion and win by at least 2 runs. |
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07-23-23 | Dodgers -111 v. Rangers | 4-8 | Loss | -111 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texas has home-field advantage but the injury to Seager, who sprained his thumb in Friday’s game, could impact their lineup. Neither pitcher has been great of late as both have ERAs north of seven in their last three starts while exhibiting control issues. Perez has just one win in his last eight starts coming into this game and has posted an ERA of 6.25 over that span while allowing nine homers in 40.1 innings. He’s also barely gotten over a 1:1 K:BB ratio in that span with 21 strikeouts against 20 free passes in that stretch. That doesn’t bode well against a Dodgers team that is loaded with power and who isn’t afraid to take a walk. Los Angeles wears down Texas and comes up with a win here to clinch the series. |
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07-23-23 | Padres -1.5 v. Tigers | 1-3 | Loss | -128 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units San Diego Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove has been lights out since late May. The Detroit Tigers have the unenviable task of trying to solve Musgrove when they face the visiting Padres on Sunday in the finale of a three-game series. Musgrove (9-2, 3.16 ERA) is 8-0 in his last 10 starts. He's only allowed 12 earned runs during that stretch, spanning 61 1/3 innings -- good for an ERA of 1.76. Musgrove has been very stingy in three July starts. He held the Los Angeles Angels to one run and three hits while striking out 11 on July 4. He then tossed six scoreless innings while striking out seven against the New York Mets on July 9. In his first post-All-Star break appearance, Musgrove gave up one run and five hits while striking out seven in six innings at Toronto on Tuesday. Detroit is expected to turn to right-hander Alex Faedo (1-4, 6.98), who allowed seven runs on six hits in 3 2/3 innings against the Blue Jays on July 7 in his most recent outing. |
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07-22-23 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | 1-4 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Astros are 8-0 against the A's this season and have won seven of those games by multiple runs. A's starter Paul Blackburn in his last three outings (two starts), is 0-2 with a 10.03 ERA, a 2.14 WHIP, seven walks and nine strikeouts over 11.2 innings of work. Blackburn makes his seventh career appearance and seventh start against the Astros in this contest. He is 0-4 with an 11.25 ERA, a 1.833 WHIP, six walks and 14 strikeouts over 24 innings of work in those outings. Blackburn is 5-11 with a 6.41 ERA, a 1.538 WHIP, 40 walks and 106 strikeouts over 132 innings in 28 career appearances, 27 starts, at the RingCentral Coliseum. Astros starter Cristian Javier has a 7-1 record including a dominating win over the A's in May. |
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07-22-23 | Pirates v. Angels -1.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pirates lost to the Angels on Friday to fall to 19-29 on the road. Meanwhile, the Angels improved to 28-22 at home. The Angels have won four straight, overall, while the Pirates have lost 10 of their last 12. The Angels will turn to Reid Detmers on Saturday, who has struggled on the road, but has a 3.63 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP at home. The Pirates are sending Bido (1-1) to the mound for his seventh start of the season. He is 1-1 with a 5.00 ERA and 25 strikeouts through 27 2/3 innings pitched. In his last outing on Sunday against the San Francisco Giants, the righty tossed 2 2/3 innings, giving up three earned runs while surrendering four hits. The 27-year-old has a 5.00 ERA and 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings over seven games this season, while allowing a batting average of .266 to opposing hitters. |
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07-22-23 | Diamondbacks v. Reds -105 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Arizona was first in the National League West for a big chunk of the first half of the season but has fallen to second place trailing Los Angeles by two games. Arizona has lost five of its last seven. Cincinnati is battling for first in the National League Central with the Milwaukee Brewers and the Reds play well against National League West opponents, winning seven of the last 10. Cincinnati's lineup, which is 8th in runs scored, will take advantage of a below-average pitching staff for Arizona that is 24th in team ERA and 21st in batting average allowed. Cincinnati starting pitcher Brandon Williamson has pitched well in each of his last three outings. The left-hander has given up eight hits and four runs in 14 innings. |
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07-21-23 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units - The implied probability of a win from the Astros is 72.5%. - Valdez has a 2.76 ERA and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings in 18 games this season, while   giving up a batting average of .227 to his opponents. - Athletics have won in 27, or 27.6%, of the 98 contests they have been named as odds-on   underdogs this year. - Houston is one of the most-disciplined teams at the plate this season, ranking fifth with an average of 7.8 strikeouts per game. |
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07-21-23 | Braves -122 v. Brewers | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units - Atlanta is 52-22 (70.3%) when favored by -120 or more this season. - Braves offense has the best slugging percentage (.495) and ranks first in home runs hit (182) in   all of MLB. They have a collective .269 batting average, and are fourth in the league with 875   total hits and second in MLB play scoring 537 runs. - Braves have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 38 games (+11.00 Units / 15% ROI) |
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07-21-23 | Giants v. Nationals +1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units - The Nationals have posted a record of 50-44-0 against the spread this season. - So far this season, Giants starter Wood has not recorded a quality start. - The Nationals have the fifth-best batting average in the majors (.261). - Giants come in after finishing a long series in Cincinnati with SF's bats going very cold in the   final two games. |
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07-20-23 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units -Â A's have lost in each of Harris's last five appearances. -Â Athletics have an implied victory probability of 38.9% in this matchup. -Â Athletics are last in MLB with a .221 batting average. -Â France has seven quality starts under his belt this season and is 4-3 with a 3.31 ERAÂ |
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07-20-23 | Padres -112 v. Blue Jays | 0-4 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units - Bassitt has against the Padres, going 0-2 in three starts against them. - Padres have won seven of their last 11 games. - Snell has a 2.80 ERA and 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings, while allowing a   batting average of .198 to opposing hitters. - Blue Jays have lost four of their last seven home games. |
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07-20-23 | Giants v. Reds -102 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units - Alex Cobb has a 2.82 ERA overall for SF but over 4.00 away and in day games. - Reds rookie lefty Andrew Abbott has an ERA near 2.00 at home and in day games. - Abbott has had three appearances this season that he held his opponents to zero   earned runs. - The Reds are 6-2 in Andrew Abbott's starts with both losses coming to the   Brewers. |
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07-19-23 | Padres v. Blue Jays -113 | 2-0 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The San Diego Padres remain an inconsistent squad. They were looking good before the break but lost the last three games in Philly this past weekend. The Blue Jays are hot, winning eight out of their last ten games including a sweep of the Diamondbacks. Furthermore, Padres’ starter Yu Darvish has not been a good pitcher to back. The veteran has squandered 18 runs in his last 27.1 innings pitched. Darvish especially has issues on the road where he has an ugly 5.52 ERA. Blue Jays’ starter Jose Berrios is delivering, allowing just one run in his 12.1 innings pitched on the month. The Jays have won in eight of his last ten starts. |
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07-19-23 | Red Sox -1.5 v. A's | 5-6 | Loss | -129 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston right-hander Brayan Bello isn't close to arbitration eligibility, yet his impressive pitching has the Red Sox already thinking about offering the second-year player a contract extension. Bello is 7-5 with a 3.14 ERA this season, and he has been even more impressive lately, going 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA in his past six starts. He is scheduled to pitch this afternoon in Oakland in the rubber game of a three-game set against the Athletics. Opposing Bello will be Oakland left-hander Ken Waldichuk (2-6, 6.66 ERA). With the exception of a three-batter hiccup by opener Joe Jacques on Tuesday, the Red Sox have pitched brilliantly in the first two games against the A's, winning 7-0 on Monday before falling 3-0 in the rematch. Bello is 2-0 in July, having beaten the visiting Texas Rangers before the All-Star break and then the host Chicago Cubs in his first start back. The Red Sox offense has really come alive as of late as well and Boston has the highest OPS versus opposing southpaws since July 1st. Additionally, they the following numbers, .264 BA/.349 OBP/.422 SLG/.771 OPS against left-handed pitchers and .269/.341/.448/.789 in day games. |
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07-19-23 | Guardians -130 v. Pirates | 5-7 | Loss | -130 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pirates, who are going with a lineup heavy with rookies as the season has gone sideways, have lost five games in a row and nine of their past 10. Pittsburgh batters have managed a total of nine hits in the first two games against Cleveland while striking out 23 times. In the series finale, Cleveland right-hander Aaron Civale (3-2, 2.65 ERA) is scheduled to start opposite Pittsburgh left-hander Rich Hill (7-9, 4.76). Civale has been brilliant in three July starts with a 1.50 ERA and two walks and 10 hits allowed over 18 innings. Hill has lost four of his past five decisions. The 43-year-old lefty owns a 6.43 ERA over his last four starts, with 26 hits and 10 walks yielded in 21 innings. Pittsburgh is 2-12 this month and has scored an MLB-low 235 runs since April 30. |
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07-18-23 | Rays v. Rangers -130 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers have won four of their last six games and three of their last four home games and have scored 20 runs in their last three home games. They’ve crushed right-handed pitching this season and Bradley has struggled on the mound in recent starts, giving up 16 runs in his last three starts. He gave up five runs in his lone start against the Rangers last month and will have a hard time slowing them down in this game. The Rays have won three of their last four games, but they’ve lost three of their last five road games. Even though they’ve done a good job batting against right-handers this season, they will struggle offensively in this game because Eovaldi has done a good job on the mound for Texas, especially at home where he hasn’t given up a run in two of his last three starts. |
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07-18-23 | Dodgers v. Orioles -117 | 10-3 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Los Angeles Dodgers will face off against the Baltimore Orioles in game 2 of their series on Tuesday night. Pitching for the Dodgers is Michael Grove, who has a 1-2 record with a 6.89 ERA. His percentiles are not exactly appealing, as he ranks in the lower end for most categories. He currently sits in the 15th percentile for xBA, 15th percentile for xSLG, 34th percentile for K% and 45th percentile for hard-hit rate. In games that he pitched for more than 3.0 innings, he has allowed 4+ runs on 6 of 9 occasions. There shouldn’t really be much of a reason to doubt the talented Orioles offense in this particular matchup. Pitching for Baltimore is Tyler Wells, who has a 7-4 record with a 3.18 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Unlike Grove, Wells has solid statistics regarding his percentiles. He ranks in the 78th percentile for xBA, 64th percentile for K% and 86th percentile for BB%. Through his last 8 starts, he hasn’t allowed more than 2 earned runs in any. The Dodgers have been hot lately, but Wells may just be the answer to slow down their bats. Simply based on the pitching discrepancy that could be at hand in this matchup |
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07-18-23 | Guardians v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 10-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Today, Cleveland left-hander Logan Allen (3-2, 3.47 ERA) is scheduled to start opposite Pittsburgh right-hander Mitch Keller (9-4, 3.31). Keller, a first-time All-Star after establishing himself as the Pirates' ace this season, pitched one inning in the Midsummer Classic last week. He will have gone a week without pitching since that appearance as Pittsburgh chose not to use him in its first four games following the All-Star break. Before the break, Keller gave up one hit in seven scoreless innings on July 8 at Arizona but did not get a decision as the Diamondbacks came back for a 10-inning win. In his only career appearance against Cleveland, on Sept. 25, 2020, Keller did not get a decision after giving up one run and no hits, with eight walks and three strikeouts, in five innings. Allen, a 24-year-old rookie who has never faced the Pirates, could earn his way back into the rotation after the Guardians went with the bullpen game on Monday. |
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07-17-23 | Tigers -123 v. Royals | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tigers haven't been all that bad lately, winning 15 of their last 29 games and 4 of 6 against the Royals this season. The Royals are a horrible 14-33 at home and average the second fewest runs per game. Jordan Lyles is on the mound for KC today. Lyles comes in with a sky high 6.42 ERA as the Royals are 1-16 in his starts. He will be opposed by Matt Manning who sports a respectable 3.72 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. The Tigers should limit a Royals lineup that averages only 3.66 runs per game with Matt Manning pitching multiple strong innings to allow the bullpen to close out the game with a lead. |
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07-17-23 | Nationals v. Cubs -133 | 7-5 | Loss | -133 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago left-hander Drew Smyly (7-6, 4.31 ERA) will look for the offense to be more consistent when he makes his 19th start of the season today. In his most recent outing, Smyly allowed four runs on six hits in four innings against the New York Yankees on July 8. He walked four and struck out three in a 6-3 loss. Smyly is 2-0 with a 3.02 ERA in nine career appearances (seven starts) against the Nationals. He earned a win at Washington on May 1 when he threw seven innings of one-run ball. Nationals left-hander MacKenzie Gore (4-7, 4.42 ERA) will oppose Smyly after going just 1 1/3 innings against the Cincinnati Reds on July 6. He surrendered no runs and one hit and struck out one before a rain delay cut his outing short. In his previous start, Gore was shelled for seven runs and six hits in 2 2/3 innings against the Philadelphia Phillies on July 1. Gore is 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA in two career starts versus the Cubs. He lost to Smyly and Chicago on May 1, when he yielded four runs on seven hits in four-plus innings. The Nationals have lost seven of their past 10 games, including an 8-4 loss on Sunday in the rubber game of a three-game road series against the St. Louis Cardinals. |
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07-17-23 | Rays v. Rangers OVER 9 | 2-3 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tampa Bay's offense has been one of the best in the league this season and will need to be strong to keep pace with the Rangers, especially if McClanahan struggles for the second-straight start. They average 5.6 runs per game, while averaging .257 and 1.5 home runs per game. Yandy Diaz (.323 average) has been a mainstay getting on base, whole Randy Arozarena (59 RBI) continues to be feared. Texas offense has helped to alleviate pitching problems time after time and their ability to generate run production has been instrumental towards their run to first place. The power has been key for this group and everything starts with Adolis Garcia (24 homeruns, 79 RBI). |
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07-17-23 | Guardians v. Pirates UNDER 9.5 | 11-0 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Guardians have a solid pitching staff when healthy but are lacking in power and timely hitting at the plate. Cleveland is 15th in team batting average with .250 but drops to 22nd in on base percentage with .314 and 27th in slugging percentage with .375. Therefore it is not surprising the Guardians are 27th in runs scored with 369. Both offenses are struggling and Pittsburgh has failed to score 5 runs in eight consecutive games, meanwhile the Guardians have scored a combined 10 runs in their previous 4 games. |
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07-17-23 | Marlins +105 v. Cardinals | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Marlins’ southpaw has been incredible this season with a 3.29 ERA and a 3.53 xERA in 19 starts while limiting hitters to just a .225 xBA. He went into the break throwing a shutout in 3 of the 4 outings, and that included against this Cardinals team. Luzardo went 6 innings and allowed only 5 hits while striking out 8 St. Louis hitters. The Cardinals sent Matthew Liberatore back to Triple-A earlier this week so Mikolas getting the start here on short rest thanks to the suspension of Friday’s game could put pressure on an already struggling bullpen. Miles Mikolas is one of the most inconsistent pitchers in the game. He was absolutely terrible in the first month of the season, bounced back with a 1.89 ERA in 6 starts in May, and then went back to his old self in June. |
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07-16-23 | Yankees -1.5 v. Rockies | 7-8 | Loss | -136 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Gerrit Cole hasn’t met the Rockies since 2019, and he’s 5-1 with a 2.47 ERA in seven career starts against Colorado. Cole, who’s enjoying a nice season, has thrown 12.1 innings at Coors Field, allowing six runs (four earned) on 13 hits in the process. I trust Cole to pitch well in Denver this Sunday, so give me the Yankees -1.5. On the other side, it’s hard to trust Chase Anderson, who’s yielded five or more earned runs in each of his last four outings. The current Yanks know Anderson well and are 17-for-79 with a whopping seven home runs against him. The current Rockies are only 16-for-87 with one home run versus Gerrit Cole. |
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07-16-23 | Red Sox v. Cubs -139 | 11-5 | Loss | -139 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Justin Steele is one of the most underappreciated and undervalued pitchers in the game. In 16 starts in the first half of the season, Steele accumulated a 2.56 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP. He allowed more than 3 runs in only 2 of his 16 starts which is absolutely insane to think about. In 9 of his 16 starts, Steele has surrendered 1 run or less. But perhaps the most dangerous part of Steele in this matchup is that he has not thrown more than 1 inning in more than 10 days. His last start of the first half of the season was on July 5 against the Brewers, and then he appeared in 1 inning during the All-Star Game. That means Steele is very well-rested and ready to give 100 pitches if needed. |
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07-16-23 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 5-7 | Loss | -142 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A pair of left-handers will match up today when Toronto's Yusei Kikuchi (7-3, 4.24 ERA) and Arizona's Tommy Henry (5-1, 3.75) take the mound. Kikuchi has fanned 96 batters in 93 1/3 innings but has been touched up for 22 homers in 18 starts. He has served up 111 in 559 2/3 innings over his four-plus major league seasons with the Seattle Mariners (2019-21) and Blue Jays. Kikuchi, 32, received a no-decision in his last outing when he gave up four runs and eight hits over five innings against the Chicago White Sox on July 6. He has allowed nine runs in 9 1/3 innings over his last two turns after allowing nine total over his previous six outings. The Japan native is 0-1 with a 4.09 ERA in two career starts against the Diamondbacks. Evan Longoria (1-for-2) has homered against Kikuchi. Henry has won four consecutive decisions since last losing on May 11 to the San Francisco Giants. Over his last four outings, the 25-year-old is 2-0 with a 1.48 ERA. Henry last pitched on July 5 when he blanked the New York Mets on two hits over six innings. He received a no-decision. |
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07-16-23 | White Sox v. Braves OVER 9.5 | 8-1 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The pitching matchup for the series finale features Atlanta left-hander Kolby Allard (0-0, 4.22) against Chicago right-hander Dylan Cease (3-3, 4.30). Allard will make his third start of the season. He pitched five innings against Cleveland on July 4 and allowed three runs on four hits, one walk and three strikeouts. Allard pitched one inning of relief against Tampa Bay in the final game prior to the All-Star Game and allowed two runs in a 10-4 loss. Allard began the season on the injured list with an oblique strain. He was recalled to make a spot start on June 28 and has remained in the rotation. Cease will be making his 20th start of the season and has not had a decision since May 23, a stretch of eight starts, when he beat the Cleveland Guardians. In his most recent appearance on July 7 against St. Louis, Cease pitched six innings and allowed five runs on 11 hits and eight strikeouts. |
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07-16-23 | Marlins v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The more encouraging part for Miami might have been third baseman Jean Segura's 3-for-4 performance. He was batting .197 on July 3 but now has multi-hit outings in four of the past five games. Miami's starting pitcher will be left-hander Steven Okert (3-0, 2.43) in what will be his first career start after 201 relief appearances. So this shapes up as a bullpen day for the Marlins as Okert hasn't posted more than two innings in any of his 37 outings this season. Okert is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA all-time against Baltimore. |
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07-15-23 | Tigers v. Mariners -1.5 | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners know Michael Lorenzen well and are 13-for-49 with a couple of home runs and 13 RBI against Detroit’s All-Star. Last season, Lorenzen emerged victorious in the Los Angeles Angels’ 8-7 win at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners tortured him for three earned runs on four hits and two walks across five innings, and Lorenzen gave up a solo home run to Julio Rodriguez and a two-run dinger to Carlos Santana, who’s now with the Pittsburgh Pirates. On the other side, the current Tigers are 5-for-16 with one home run and three RBI against George Kirby, who’s 1-1 in two career starts against Detroit. The Tigers hold an 87 wRC+ against the righties in July, so Kirby should fare well in this matchup. The Mariners own a 127 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers and 124 wRC+ versus the southpaws in July |
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07-15-23 | Astros -133 v. Angels | 12-13 | Loss | -133 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston Astros left-hander Framber Valdez has dominated the Los Angeles Angels in his two previous starts this season. He's scheduled to face them again tonight in the middle contest of a three-game series in Anaheim, Calif., and he'll be coming off six days of rest this time around. Valdez (7-6, 2.51 ERA) hasn't pitched since allowing two runs and five hits in six innings of 3-2 win against the Seattle Mariners last Saturday. Like many of the Angels, Detmers was sharp in the month of June, going 1-1 in five starts with a 2.05 ERA. Detmers (2-6, 4.31) was also solid in his first start of July, limiting the Arizona Diamondbacks to two runs in six innings. He took a step back in his most recent outing last Saturday, however, surrendering seven runs and six hits in 3 1/3 innings of a 10-5 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. He has made five career starts against the Astros and owns a 1-2 mark and 4.62 ERA. The Angels had a few positives come out of their 7-5 loss to the Astros in the series opener on Friday night, their season-high sixth straight defeat. |
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07-15-23 | White Sox v. Braves OVER 8.5 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta has the best lineup in baseball, and it hasn’t mattered whether it’s been a lefty or righty pitcher. But more recently, the Braves have been doing better against right-handers. Since June 1, the Braves have a 140 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which is by far the best in baseball. But they also rank 1st in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and ISO against right-handers in that time. All that tells me Lance Lynn could be in for a very, very long day. And after Lynn is a White Sox bullpen that has the 9th highest ERA in the last 30 days. |
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07-15-23 | Red Sox -104 v. Cubs | 4-10 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Left-hander James Paxton (5-1, 2.73 ERA) goes to the hill today when he makes his 11th start of the season. Paxton has been stellar over his past seven outings, going 4-0 with a 1.93 ERA. In his most recent start, Paxton allowed two runs on six hits in six innings during a victory against the Oakland Athletics on July 8. He walked one and struck out three. Paxton has never faced the Cubs. Right-hander Marcus Stroman (9-6, 2.96 ERA) will get the nod for Chicago as he attempts to get back on track. Through his first 16 starts this season, Stroman went 9-4 with a 2.28 ERA. In three outings since then, he is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA, most recently surrendering four runs on four hits in five innings against the Milwaukee Brewers on July 6. The Red Sox hit righties well, and they are hitting from 1 through 9 and all up and down their order. |
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07-14-23 | Red Sox v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 8-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Brayan Bello was spectacular for the Boston Red Sox in his first 14 starts of the season, posting a 3.04 ERA across 80 innings while allowing 2 or fewer earned runs in 11 of his last 12 starts. The time he allowed more than 2 was when Tampa Bay scored 3 off him in 6 innings of work. His hard-hit rate ranks in just the 30th percentile, but his elite ground-ball rate has contributed to a 57th-percentile barrel rate and only 8 home runs allowed. The right-hander has cut down his walk rate from last season as well. His sinker-heavy approach should play well in his matchup today against the Cubs. Chicago ranks just 22nd in wOBA and 23rd in SLG against right-handed sinkers this season. In the last 30 days they are just 25th in wOBA against right-handed pitching overall. Bello uses 3 other offerings in his arsenal, and his 3.77 FIP ranks 28th among 83 pitchers this season with 80 or more innings of work. |
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07-14-23 | White Sox v. Braves -1.5 | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta (60-29) has won three of its last four games, 12 of its last 14, and has won 11 consecutive series dating back to Arizona, June 2-4. The Braves lead the NL East by 8 1/2 games over the Miami Marlins. The White Sox (38-54) have lost seven of their last nine games and are 0-3-1 in their last four series. They have dropped 15 of their last 23 and lost 18 of their last 27. Chicago is in fourth place in the American League Central, eight games behind Cleveland. The pitching matchup for the series opener features a pair of right-handers -- Atlanta veteran Charlie Morton (9-6, 3.43 ERA) vs. Chicago's Michael Kopech (3-7, 4.08). Kopech has already been tagged for a career-high 17 home runs in just 86 innings pitched this season. Morton, 39, has won his last four starts. In his last appearance on Friday, he pitched 6 1/3 innings and allowed one run on four hits, two walks and six strikeouts in a win over Tampa Bay. |
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07-14-23 | Brewers -114 v. Reds | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Milwaukee ace and All-Star pitcher Corbin Burnes (7-5, 3.94 ERA) will start the series opener Friday against Cincinnati. Burnes has a pair of quality starts against Cincinnati in his previous two outings, including on July 7 when he held the Reds to three runs on two hits over six innings in a 7-3 Milwaukee win. Burnes is 3-1 with a 2.80 ERA in 16 career appearances against Cincinnati, including six starts. Burnes became just the fifth player in Brewers history to be named to three straight All-Star games, joining Don Money, Dan Plesac, Ryan Braun and Josh Hader. But the last-minute replacement for Spencer Strider did not pitch in Tuesday's game in Seattle. The Reds counter with another right-hander in Graham Ashcraft (4-6, 6.28), making his team-leading 17th start of 2023. In his last start on July 5 in Washington, Ashcraft snapped a personal three-game skid and won for the first time since May 28, scattering seven hits and one run over six innings in Cincinnati's 9-2 win. Ashcraft is winless in four career starts against Milwaukee, going 0-3 with 10.13 ERA. He was tagged for a career-worst 10 runs -- all earned -- on nine hits over four innings in a 10-8 Milwaukee win on June 3 in Cincinnati. |
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07-14-23 | Giants v. Pirates OVER 9 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitching for the Giants will be Ross Stripling, who has not exactly been impressive thus far. Stripling is 0-2 with a 6.37 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. He ranks in the lower end of the league for most percentiles including xBA (12th percentile), K% (23rd percentile), xSLG (5th percentile) and hard-hit percentage (14th percentile). He most likely won’t pitch too far into this matchup, but some damage could be done in the short span that he is on the mound. Pitching for the Pirates will be Rich Hill, who has a 7-9 record with a 4.78 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. While these numbers may not exactly be horrible, I expect more regression from Hill. He currently has an xERA of 5.64 and — similar to Stripling — ranks in the lower end of most percentiles. He sits in the 10th percentile for xBA, 10th percentile for xSLG, 35th percentile for K% and 40th percentile for BB%. In the last 4 games Hill has given up 15 runs and 23 hits. |
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07-14-23 | Padres v. Phillies +105 | 8-3 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Padres will turn to right-hander Yu Darvish (5-6, 4.87 ERA) today against Phillies left-hander Cristopher Sanchez (0-2, 2.84). Darvish, 36, admitted to feeling "close to 100 percent now" after he returned to the lineup last Friday following a bout with a viral illness that kept him sidelined since June 21. He saw his winless stretch extend to three games, however, despite allowing three runs in five innings of a no-decision against the New York Mets. Darvish is 2-1 with a 2.23 ERA in seven career starts against Philadelphia however this season has a 6.16 road ERA. Like Darvish, Sanchez followed two straight losses with a no-decision in his last trip to the mound. Sanchez permitted one run on four hits in six innings at Tampa Bay. Sanchez, 26, has yet to face the Padres in his career. |
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07-11-23 | National League v. American League UNDER 7.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The All-Star Game has been very low scoring. In 2022, the American League won by a score of 3-2 which cashed the under. Looking at a bigger sample size, the average number of runs in an All-Star Game during the AL’s 9-year winning streak is 6.89. That would come in just under this year’s total of 7.5. Additionally, 10 of the last 14 All-Star Games have ended with 7 or fewer runs. Only once during that span did a game ever reach double-digit runs (14 runs in 2018), so the games have always been closer to staying under the total than going over the number. It’s easy to see why – these are the best pitchers in baseball. Each pitcher knows that they’re only going to get an inning, so there’s no use in nipping at the corners and being careful with certain hitters. Each pitcher is going to go out there and try to get as many strikeouts as they can before the inning is over. |
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07-09-23 | Mets v. Padres UNDER 8 | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units To say that New York Mets right-hander Max Scherzer has dominated the San Diego Padres throughout his 16 seasons in the majors would be an understatement. In 18 career starts against the Padres, Scherzer is 7-3 with a 2.76 ERA, a 0.910 WHIP and a .185 opponents' batting average while averaging more than 12 strikeouts per nine innings. The results have been even better in San Diego, where he is 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA across seven starts. In his past 10 starts, however, Scherzer is 6-0 with a 3.45 ERA, although he gave up four runs on five hits in six innings on Tuesday against the Arizona Diamondbacks in Phoenix. Musgrove knows the feeling of beginning the season slowly. He was 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in his first five starts. Over his last eight starts, however, Musgrove is 6-0 with a 2.01 ERA. Consider that the under is 19-6-1 in Padres last 26 games with the total set at 8.0-9.5. |
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07-09-23 | Cardinals v. White Sox -125 | 4-3 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Giolito (6-5, 3.50 ERA) is pitching effectively as he gets set to face the St. Louis Cardinals, and with a contract that expires after the season, he could be attractive trade bait as the White Sox sink in the American League Central standings. St. Louis will start an enigma of its own in left-hander Steven Matz (0-7, 5.02). Sent to the bullpen in late May after season-opening struggles in the starting rotation, Matz takes the rotation spot of Adam Wainwright (shoulder), who recently landed on the injured list. While Matz stumbled Wednesday in Miami, allowing two runs and three hits in 2 1/3 innings, he pitched to a 1.98 ERA over his first seven relief appearances, and he hasn't surrendered a home run since May 24. Overall, he has a 5.02 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. Additionally, he has a 7.14 ERA on the road |
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07-09-23 | Royals v. Guardians -1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -111 | 4 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Kansas City Royals continue to struggle. They have lost five games in a row entering Saturday including losses in the opening two games of this series. Royals' starter Ryan Yarbrough is seeing his first action since May. The veteran has not been able to find a groove as seen in his 6.15 ERA. The Cleveland Guardians have won two of their last three series. Guardians’ starter Shane Bieber should dominate in this one. He just registered six shutout innings against the Royals in late June and has silenced the rivals throughout his career, posting a dazzling 2.80 ERA and an undefeated 6-0 record. Beiber is sporting a 3.02 ERA at home. |
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07-09-23 | Braves +103 v. Rays | 4-10 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves and Rays play the final game of their 3-game series on Sunday afternoon. Atlanta has won the first 2 games and has the best record in the majors going into the All-Star break. The Braves are one of the hottest teams in baseball and have won 12 of their last 13 games. Tampa Bay started the season hot but has fallen off and is 0-7 in the last 7 games. The Rays will try to get a win by bringing out Zach Eflin. He has a 3.24 ERA through 16 starts with a 9-4 record. He is a strikeout pitcher who has a 26.1 K percentage, and only a 3.9 BB percentage, which is in the top 3% in the league. He will be opposed by Bryce Elder for the Braves, who has an incredible 2.45 ERA through 17 starts with a 7-1 record. The Braves are 6-2 as an underdog this year. Atlanta is the hottest team in baseball, so it is very hard to bet against them. They are 12-1 in their last 13, 6-1 in their last 7 road games and 5-2 in their last 7 against Tampa Bay. |
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07-09-23 | A's v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Boston Red Sox have clicked on all cylinders over their first two games against the Oakland Athletics this weekend. Entering today's series and unofficial first-half finale, Boston has won four straight games and seven out of eight, while scoring 27 runs in just the last three games. The Red Sox have put together seven consecutive games with at least 10 hits after pounding out 15 in Saturday's 10-3 triumph. Cora is expected to use Tayler Scott (0-0, 7.71 ERA) as an opener less than a week after his Red Sox debut. He was acquired from the Dodgers in a trade late last month. While with the Seattle Mariners in 2019, Scott made one relief appearance against the Athletics, surrendering two unearned runs over two innings. Left-hander JP Sears (1-6, 4.09) is scheduled to make his team-leading 18th start for the Athletics, making him their only pitcher to remain in the rotation all season. |
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07-08-23 | Braves -141 v. Rays | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta is going with All-Star Spencer Strider (10-2, 3.66 ERA), who leads the majors with 155 strikeouts. Tampa Bay is turning to rookie Taj Bradley (5-4, 5.27), who has 76 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings. Neither starter has yet to face the opposition. Strider is one of a franchise-high eight players to be selected to the All-Star Game. The 24-year-old has won each of his past four starts, fanning 34 in 24 2/3 innings in that span. He gave up three runs (two earned) with nine strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings against the Miami Marlins on Sunday. For the Rays, Bradley has been going through some growing pains. He surrendered one run on three hits in six innings of a 7-2 victory over the Baltimore Orioles on June 21. But in his past two starts, the 22-year-old rookie has struggled. Bradley allowed seven earned runs in four innings in a loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks on June 27, and five runs in 3 1/3 innings in a no-decision at the Seattle Mariners on Sunday. |
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