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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-06-23 | Twins -120 v. Guardians | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right-hander Joe Ryan will try for his 11th win of the season as the Minnesota Twins attempt to complete a three-game series sweep of the host Cleveland Guardians this afternoon. Ryan (10-8, 4.20 ERA) is 3-2 with a 1.83 ERA in seven career starts against the Guardians, including 2-1 with a sparkling 0.87 ERA in three starts at Progressive Field. Cleveland (66-73), which trails Minnesota (73-66) by seven games in the American League Central with just 23 games remaining, will start rookie right-hander Gavin Williams (1-5, 3.46) in an effort to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Williams pitched one scoreless inning as an opener in a 4-2 victory over the Twins on Aug. 29, his only career appearance against Minnesota. He got out of a bases-loaded jam by getting Royce Lewis to pop out, no small accomplishment considering Lewis had hit grand slams in back-to-back games entering that contest and smashed another in a 20-6 victory in Monday's series opener. Minnesota followed Monday's blowout win with an 8-3 victory on Tuesday to clinch what many viewed as a make-or-break series for Cleveland's division-title hopes. Donovan Solano hit a three-run triple to highlight a five-run eighth inning for the Twins, who improved to 4-1 on their current six-game road trip. |
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09-04-23 | Orioles -171 v. Angels | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Grayson Rodriguez was money last Monday, and I’m expecting to see another strong performance when he takes on the Angels’ depleted lineup. The Orioles’ bullpen has done a great job over the last ten days, notching a 2.73 ERA and 2.80 FIP through 26.1 innings. I don’t trust the Angels’ pitching staff to keep the O’s in check. Over the last ten days, the Orioles’ bats have registered a 127 wRC+ against the righties (239 plate appearances) and an 84 wRC+ versus the southpaws. The Angels have four lefties in their bullpen, but just one of those four guys holds an ERA south of 5.74. |
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09-04-23 | Clemson v. Duke +13.5 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 118 h 36 m | Show |
NCAAF Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Clemson comes into this one with a 1-7 ATS mark as a road favorite in season openers, and a 3-7 ATS log in its last ten games on this field. Swinney brought in Garrett Riley from TCU to overhaul the Tigers’ stagnant offense. Duke comes in 3-1 SUATS in its last four lined home-openers as well as 3-0 SUATS in its last three lined season openers. More importantly, Duke was 6-1 SU and 6-0 ATS at home in Mike Elko’s debut last season. Finally, College football home dogs in season openers who return 17 or more starters are 43-16-1 ATS since 1990 if they won three or more games the previous season, including 12-2 ATS if they are a dog of more than 12 points. |
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09-04-23 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Colorado Rockies have dropped four consecutive series and eight out of their last ten games. This is a team that no longer has Grichuk or Cron and is struggling to score runs, especially on the road. The Diamondbacks have dominated the Rockies this season, winning eight of the ten meetings. Peter Lambert issued a poor 5.23 ERA in August. D-Backs’ pitcher Merill Kelly has silenced the Rockies this season, limiting them to only three runs in 12 innings. He is sporting a 2.96 ERA at home this season. Arizona is 7-3 in their last ten home decisions and I expect another home win. |
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09-04-23 | Giants v. Cubs -132 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Webb has been a bad bet on the road this season and has been putting too many runners on base lately. In his last five starts, he's allowed 35 hits and 14 runs (13 earned) in 31.2 innings. He lost his last two starts and gave up four runs and nine hits three starts ago. I don't trust him against the red-hot Cubs, who are scoring 5.7 runs per game since the All-Star break. Steele has been steady and consistent, especially under the sun. He's 8-2 with a 2.47 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 15 day games. He will earn his 12th victory of the year at home against a Giants club that's hitting .220 with a .295 OBP in the second half of the season, averaging a paltry 3.7 runs per game. |
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09-03-23 | LSU v. Florida State +2.5 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 93 h 56 m | Show |
NCAAF Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units The Tigers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games away from the Bayou when forced to lay points. Meanwhile, the Seminoles comes back with no less than 18 starters back from last year’s 10-win squad which improved on offense by 8 points and 104 yards per game, while the defense allowed 6 points less and 58 yards less per contest. They are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in this series since 1980, including 4-0 SUATS when facing an LSU squad that won six or more games the previous season. Finally, Florida State is 9-0-2 in 11 previous contests in Orlando. |
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09-03-23 | Rays -129 v. Guardians | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Guardians struggle to score against everyone, so don't expect them to light up the scoreboard in this one. Meanwhile, Cleveland is trusting Xzavion Curry against the Rays again, at least to begin the game. Considering that he gave up five runs last time, that doesn't bode well. The last time he was on the mound was his worst outing of the year, ending with six runs surrendered over 2.0 innings. As for Tampa Bay, their offense has been on fire lately and will probably pounce on this version of Curry. Expect domination from the Rays to close the series. |
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09-03-23 | Orioles v. Diamondbacks -138 | 8-5 | Loss | -138 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With Zac Gallen getting the start in Chase Field, always expect Arizona to win. Only twice have the Diamondbacks lost his home starts, and in one of them, the bullpen gave up five runs late to lose it. Implosions like that are an anomaly, but Gallen stifling the opposing lineup is not. So, it'll be on Arizona to give him run support if they want to take this game. Considering that they scored four against Flaherty the first time they faced him and three the second time, the Diamondbacks should race out to a lead in this one. By avoiding Baltimore's best bullpen arms, they'll probably plate a few more too. Don't be surprised if the Snakes win by multiple runs. |
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09-03-23 | Oregon State -16 v. San Jose State | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 52 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units OSU comes into this one 8-2 ATS in their last ten games versus MWC foes, and also closed the season on a 7-0 ATS run, thanks largely to a defense that improved 55 YPG. The Spartans were on the opposite side ATS finishing up 0-7 ATS their final seven games and it continued in a 56-28 loss to USC in Saturday night’s season opener. Former Hawaii QB Chevan Cordeiro threw 3 TD passes to WR Nick Nash against the Trojans and ran for an additional 52 yards on the ground. However, with SJSU just 1-26 SU in their last twenty-seven lined games against Pac-12 opponents. To close it all out, consider that playing on any CFB away team as either a favorite or dog of fewer than 20 points in its season opener if they won 8 or more games last season and are facing an opponent coming off a loss of 8 or more points as a dog is 11-0 ATS since 1990. |
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09-03-23 | Phillies v. Brewers +100 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Brewers were cooled off by the Cubs in the final two games of that series but did have a nine-game winning streak to extend their lead in the NL Central prior to that. They now have Wade Miley taking the hill against the Phillies in the series finale on Sunday. Miley is 4-1 at home this season and also has a solid 3.46 ERA in his last five starts as well. The Phillies will send Suarez to the hill for the series finale and will likely have to watch his pitch count in his first start off of IL. Suarez is just 2-6 overall on the season and the Phillies have lost three of his last five starts this season overall. The Brewers have won each of Miley's last two starts and will close out this series with another win. |
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09-02-23 | Coastal Carolina v. UCLA -14.5 | 13-27 | Loss | -108 | 72 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This Coast-to-Coast matchup features a Coastal team that doesn't do well in games where they are a big underdog, going 4-8 ATS when taking double digits. UCLA comes in off a winning season but lost it's bowl game. Keeping that in mind playing on any college football team in its season-opening game if they lost straight-up as a bowl favorite of -7 or more points last season is a money making 50-33-1 ATS in games since 1990 – a rock-solid 60% winning proposition. In addition, when these same teams open the season at home and have won 15 or more of their previous 28 home games they are a winning 29-10-1 ATS, including 16-3-1 ATS since 2007. |
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09-02-23 | Orioles -123 v. Diamondbacks | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cecconi has pitched decently in his limited action at the big league level and has surrendered only two extra-base hits in his three outings at Chase Field. Opposing hitters have a .163/.178/.256 slash line against him in those performances but it’s safe to say that the Orioles are a team that can do some damage. Bradish has pitched well and the Orioles have won his last five starts entering this game. The Orioles are a dangerous offensive team, especially on the road, and they should be able to get to the young Cecconi, who had his struggles in Triple-A before being called up. Back the Orioles and Bradish here as they earn the road victory in this contest. |
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09-02-23 | North Carolina -135 v. South Carolina | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 70 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units NC Coach Mack is 26-4 SU in season openers, (18-1 in the last 19) and he brings back 18 starters hungry for revenge and looking to compete with pre-season favorites Florida State and Clemson. South Carolina, hasn’t been very successful versus ACC teams lately, going 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in the last six. When they play in neutral territory, they are only 1-3 SUATS. Finally, UNC IS 5-0 as a favorite of fewer than four points against SEC foes. |
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09-02-23 | Mariners -130 v. Mets | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets have lost seven of their last 10 games and five of their last eight home games and have scored only 12 runs in their last four home games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because they don’t hit the ball well against right-handers and Castillo has done a good job on the mound in recent starts, giving up only six runs in his last four starts. He gave up five runs in his last two starts against the Mets, and with Seattle having the second-best bullpen in the league, they won’t have trouble keeping New York’s offense in check. The Mariners have won eight of their last 10 games and five of their last six road games and have scored 30 runs in their last five games. Mets starter, Carrasco has struggled on the mound in recent starts, giving up 18 runs in his last five starts. He gave up eight runs in his last two starts against the Mariners, and with New York’s bullpen struggling during their slump, they will have a hard time slowing down the Mariners in this game. |
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09-02-23 | Cubs -111 v. Reds | 1-2 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs are looking good, winning five of their last six series after a series victory against one of the hottest squads in baseball, the Brewers, and a win in game one of Friday's DH. The Reds are stumbling in recent games, losing two straight series and six of their last ten games. Cubs’ starter Javier Assad has been outstanding recently. The right-hander has conceded two or fewer runs in five consecutive outings and reported a dazzling 2.48 ERA in August. Reds’ starter Andrew Abbott has regressed after a great start to his rookie year, allowing 20 runs in his last 27.1 innings. The Cubs are a reliable play with Assad on the mound. They have won in each of Assad’s last five outings. |
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09-02-23 | South Florida v. Western Kentucky -11.5 | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 66 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units WKU has brought in a pair of WRs from Auburn and Tennessee to join wideout Malachi Corley (led college football in yards after catch with 975 and missed tackles forced with 40), so look for W. Kentucky to add to a 5-1-1 ATS record in lined openers. South Florida has not faired well in each of the last three meetings, going 0-3 ATS against Western. Additionally, they are 4-29 overall out-right their L33 contests. The Bulls are also on a 1-16 straight-up run which is why first-year head coach Alex Golesh is now in Tampa. |
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09-02-23 | Northern Illinois +9 v. Boston College | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 62 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units NIU is 30th in returning players and they’ve hung with BC in two losses, both by three points. In 2021 the Huskies won nine, last season they won just three times. We like the 2021 MAC champs to ride a healthy QB in Rocky Lombardi to connect with WR Treyvon Rudolph, more than three times, to keep this one respectable. Take the points. |
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09-01-23 | Stanford v. Hawaii +3.5 | 37-24 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Hawaii returns to the Island with a 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS mark in their last ten lined home openers, including 6-1 ATS when taking points. Standford has a new HC and new CFB head coaches are 7-18-2 ATS in Game One with a team that won three or fewer games the previous season. Adding to HC Taylor’s issues is Stanford’s horrible 1-8 SUATS mark in its last nine road games. To finish it off, consider that Hawaii is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a home dog in Pac-12 games since 2010. |
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09-01-23 | Braves v. Dodgers +1.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -151 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’ll see a couple of top-notch lefties on the mound, and these two lineups have done a good job against the southpaws in the last couple of weeks (Braves 153 wRC+ and .943 OPS; Dodgers 110 wRC+ and .767 OPS). Furthermore, both teams have plenty of dangerous arms in their bullpens. The Braves’ relievers have amassed a 3.25 ERA and 3.08 FIP in the last ten days and 27.2 innings of work, while the Dodgers’ bullpen has thrown 40.2 frames in that span while tallying a 2.66 ERA and 3.86 FIP. |
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09-01-23 | Angels -133 v. A's | 2-9 | Loss | -133 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Neither team is playing well, but the Angels have the only above-average group in this game with their offense. That group is 11th in runs per game, while Oakland is 30th. Los Angeles also hasn't struggled against Oakland at all this year, with a +27 run differential after seven games. Using their lineup, the Angels will cruise to another win against the A's today. They've already crushed JP Sears once (six runs in 4.1 innings), and that wasn't at the Oakland Coliseum where Sears has pitched worse. Meanwhile, Patrick Sandoval made light work of the A's lineup twice, giving up only four total runs in two starts. The Angels will probably race out to a healthy lead and never look back. |
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09-01-23 | Twins v. Rangers -148 | 5-1 | Loss | -148 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This weekend's series opens with a pair of right-handers facing each other for the second time in less than a week. Texas' Max Scherzer (12-5, 3.71 ERA) is set to square off against Minnesota's Joe Ryan (9-8, 4.33). Scherzer received a no-decision last Saturday against the Twins after allowing two runs with 10 strikeouts over seven innings. Scherzer is 3-1 with a 2.64 ERA in his first five starts covering 30 2/3 innings since being acquired from the New York Mets. He is 9-2 with a 4.32 ERA in 17 career starts versus Minnesota. |
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08-31-23 | Florida v. Utah -4.5 | 11-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Florida edged the Utes, 29-26, as a 5.5-point home dog in last year’s season opener, however keep in mind that Utah HC Whittingham is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in his career when seeking revenge from a non-conference loss. He’s also 15-0 outright in home openers against non-conference opponents with an average winning score of 38-14. Florida’s Napier does bring a 17-7 ATS dog log into the fray, including 5-1 last season, but Utah looks to be so loaded. |
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08-31-23 | Marlins v. Nationals +145 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We saw these teams meet last weekend in South Beach with the Nationals taking two of three. That included a win Friday night with this pitching matchup as Adon spun six scoreless frames. Miami is going to be dealing with traveling after Hurricane Idalia had hit Florida early Wednesday so it will remain to be seen how that works out for them. Washington has been strong since the All-Star break, entering today 26-18 in the second half of the season. Miami saw Jorge Soler leave Tuesday’s game early with hip tightness, which could impede their top slugging option. The Nationals have played solid baseball and have made good teams struggle against them of late. Miami has been down in the second half of the season and has gone 28-36 on the road this year. Give the edge to the Nationals as they take the opening game of this series. |
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08-29-23 | Padres -144 v. Cardinals | 5-6 | Loss | -144 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The San Diego Padres have experienced setback after setback to their pitching staff, with Yu Darvish's relegation to the 15-day injured list the latest blow. However, right-hander Seth Lugo (5-6, 3.70 ERA) remains one of the bright spots. He will face the host St. Louis Cardinals tonight in the middle game of a three-game series. The Padres won the opener 4-1 on Monday to snap a three-game losing streak. Lugo has thrown a combined 12 scoreless innings over his past two starts, against the Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins. He has allowed just eight hits and four walks while striking out 13, doing his best to keep San Diego's dwindling playoff hopes alive. Lugo is 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA in 10 career appearances against St. Louis, including two starts. The Cardinals have lost 10 of their past 12 games. They have dropped their past four games by the combined scored of 26-4. |
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08-29-23 | Angels v. Phillies -163 | 7-12 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Los Angeles Angels are out of postseason contention and are a defeated team. They have now dropped five of their last seven series. The Phillies are looking good, winning seven of their last ten decisions after sweeping the Cardinals this past weekend and a 6-4 victory on Monday. Angels’ starter Tyler Anderson is going to struggle against this hot lineup. The veteran has squandered 13 runs in his last 13.1 innings pitched. Anderson has issued a weak 4.66 career ERA in 29 innings against the Phillies. I expect Michael Lorenzen to rebound in this one. The righty has hit a bump in his last two starts but has allowed two or fewer runs in five of his last eight outings. |
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08-28-23 | A's v. Mariners -1.5 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kyle Muller will meet Seattle for the second time this season, and the Mariners tortured him for six earned runs on eight hits and two walks across five innings on May 22. I don’t trust the A’s to keep the Mariners lineup in check, so give me Seattle -1.5. Seattle’s bullpen has gone 3-1 with four saves over the last ten days (30 IP), tallying a 3.90 ERA and 2.74 FIP, while the Mariners lineup has recorded a 221 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers (79 plate appearances) and 163 wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers (275 PA). The M’s will have to slow down eventually, but I don’t see that happening in this series. |
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08-28-23 | Guardians v. Twins -159 | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Guardians are looking to make a push in the division but the Twins are having a great season and look to step up and control this game from the first inning. The Twins should constantly drive in runs with Edouard Julien, Max Kepler, and the rest of the lineup making contact and powering the ball to easily plate baserunners. The Twins should limit the Guardians' lineup, which averages only 4.00 runs per game, with Kenta Maeda pitching multiple strong innings to allow the bullpen to close out the game with the lead. The Twins should win the game with a strong performance at home. |
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08-28-23 | Angels v. Phillies -141 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right-hander Lucas Giolito (7-10, 4.32 ERA) will be tasked with slowing down Turner and the rest of the Philadelphia offense today when he makes his 27th start of the season. Five of Giolito's 26 starts have come with the Angels after he was traded from the Chicago White Sox on July 26. So far, his time in Los Angeles has not been kind to him. Giolito is 1-4 with a 6.67 ERA with the Angels after giving up four runs (one earned) on five hits in six innings against the Cincinnati Reds last Tuesday. He walked two and struck out nine en route to his second consecutive loss. Fellow right-hander Taijuan Walker (13-5, 4.02) will oppose Giolito as he squares off against an Angels team that has seemingly had nothing go right over the past two weeks. In addition to seeing superstar center fielder Mike Trout land back on the injured list due to a left hamate fracture and having to shut down two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani on the mound for the rest of the season, Los Angeles has lost eight of its last 12 games. |
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08-27-23 | Texans +2.5 v. Saints | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The young and feisty Texans should be the more hungry team on Sunday night. The veteran Saints team has little to prove on Sunday night and even less reason to play some of their key veterans in a meaningless exhibition game. Houston, meanwhile, is still sorting out the quarterback position and may be more inclined to get another look at their full offensive line playing together behind Stroud. In addition, the younger Texans will have far more interesting choices to make at several positions and may want to take extended looks at several players trying to earn their way onto the 53-man roster. With that in mind, expect the Texans to be more aggressive, physical, and hungry on Sunday night. I think youth will be served in this game. |
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08-27-23 | Rangers -107 v. Twins | 6-7 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texas Rangers starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery has had four solid starts since joining the club at the trade deadline. The left-hander has allowed five earned runs across 26 innings. Minnesota starter Bailey Ober has allowed 16 earned runs across the last 24 Innings pitched and Minnesota has lost three of the five games during that span. Minnesota leads the AL Central but injuries are beginning to take their toll on the Twins lineup as Minnesota is playing without Alex Kirilloff, Willi Castro, Byron Buxton, Nick Gordon and Jose Miranda along with a host of starting and relief pitchers. |
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08-27-23 | Yankees v. Rays -119 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays have done a great job batting against left-handers and Rodon has struggled on the mound in recent starts, giving up 10 runs in his last three starts. He gave up eight runs in his two starts against the Rays. The Yankees have lost 10 of their last 12 games and five of their last six road games. The Yankees haven’t hit the ball well against right-handers and Littell has done a good job on the mound in recent starts, giving 11 runs in his last six starts. With Tampa Bay’s bullpen also playing well at the moment, they won’t have trouble keeping New York’s offense in check. |
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08-27-23 | Guardians v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 10-7 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Noah Syndergaard is back on the hill for the Cleveland Guardians this afternoon. He holds a 6.42 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the year and has surrendered 12 hits and 8 runs in his last 10.1 innings. Overall, Syndergaard simply isn’t the pitcher he once was years ago. He’s on pace for the lowest strikeout rate of his career (5.77 K/9), this is by far the highest season-long ERA he’s recorded and lastly his velocity just isn’t there anymore. Six years ago, Syndergaard was throwing fastballs at an average of 99.6 mph whereas now he only hits 93 mph on a good pitch. I expect him to struggle today against a Blue Jays team that is capable of lighting up the scoreboard as they did in yesterday’s contest. |
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08-26-23 | Rams v. Broncos -5.5 | 0-41 | Win | 100 | 51 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rams lack depth and have shown a lot of flaws in their defense through the previous two weeks of the preseason. I’m expecting the Broncos to continue with a strong performance on the ground, so give me Denver to win and cover the spread in front of the home fans. The Broncos’ run D has done a good job thus far, and the Rams will have to lean on Stetson Bennett’s arm. It’s hard to trust the Rams’ receiving corps to carry the team for all 60 minutes, while Bennett is still trying to build some kind of chemistry with his new teammates. The Rams are 0-4 SU and ATS in their previous four preseason contests. |
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08-26-23 | Florida International v. Louisiana Tech -11.5 | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both of these teams struggled last season under rookie head coaches, but the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs clearly had the better offseason, bringing in a top notch quarterback in Bachmeier from Boise State and a promising receiver in Crawford from Nebraska. they also have more talent coming back, including two top receivers and their leading running back. Tech could seriously challenge for the Conference USA title so they should get off to a good start here. With the firepower they have, giving up 11.5 points doesn't seem like much. And for the Panthers, this could be another long year as they lost some key pieces. Take Louisiana Tech to cover the spread. |
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08-26-23 | Hawaii +17.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 49 h 20 m | Show |
NCAAF Play of the Day Rating: 3 Units Vanderbilt has been more than 7-point favorites in a season opener five times since 1980 and lost four games outright. They’re just 5-10 ATS as favorites of 14 or more points in nonconference clashes, including 0-4 ATS in the last four. Hawaii likely comes into this one seething from a 63-10 season-opening loss to Vanderbilt in Timmy Chang’s debut last year. A 9-5 ATS mark in season-opening road games works, as does momentum for a 6-1 ATS season-ending effort the previous year. |
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08-26-23 | Cubs -133 v. Pirates | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs have urgency on their side when they get set to battle the Pirates on Saturday. In addition, starter Assid has been excellent as of late as the team continues to stretch him out as a starter. He should find success against a Pirates' lineup that is ranked just 24th in baseball in runs scored per game this season. With the Pirates likely to employ an opener on Saturday, the Cubs lineup should be able to get into a fairly vulnerable Pirates' bullpen and put up some numbers on Sunday. The Cubs are fifth in baseball in runs scored per game and have scored over six runs per game in the last three games. |
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08-26-23 | Padres v. Brewers -132 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers will attempt to clinch another series victory tonight in a pairing of right-handers as Freddy Peralta (10-8, 3.97 ERA) starts against the Padres' Pedro Avila (0-0, 1.17). The 27-year-old Peralta is on a roll. The Brewers have won each of Peralta's past five starts and he is 4-0 over those games, allowing five runs on 19 hits and seven walks with 50 strikeouts in 30 2/3 innings for a 1.47 ERA while averaging 14.7 strikeouts per nine innings. Peralta is 1-1 lifetime against the Padres in four games (one start). That start came earlier this season when he gave up five runs on nine hits and a walk in five innings to suffer the Brewers' lone loss in a four-game series in San Diego. Meanwhile, the Padres will be turning to the 26-year-old Avila, whose only other start this season came in a spot/quasi bullpen game on Aug. 1. In 23 innings this season, Avila has given up three runs on 18 hits and nine walks against 28 strikeouts. At Triple-A El Paso this season, Avila had a 1-6 record with an 8.57 ERA over 19 appearances (15 starts) before joining the Padres. |
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08-26-23 | Rockies v. Orioles -1.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -139 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No need to really over think this matchup. On the mound for the Orioles will be Kyle Bradish, who has a 2.18 ERA and 0.99 WHIP at home. Starting for the Rockies will be Chris Flexen, who has a 6.31 ERA and 1.68 WHIP since joining their rotation. The Orioles also have the vastly superior lineup, so look for them to earn a convincing victory. |
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08-26-23 | Navy +20.5 v. Notre Dame | 3-42 | Loss | -107 | 72 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Former DC, Brian Newberry, takes over from Ken Niuamatolo after 16 seasons as the Navy head man on the sidelines. Newberry’s defense allowed a respectable 347.5 YPG in his four seasons in Annapolis. He does inherit 18 starters from last year’s squad. Consider that the Irish are only 19-28 ATS versus the military schools since 1990, including 13-27 ATS at home or on a neutral field. As an added bonus to this pick the last time the Navy endured three consecutive losing seasons, they won 8 games and went bowling. Finally, remember that Military football dogs of 20-plus points are 82-39-4 ATS since 1980. |
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08-26-23 | Seahawks +3 v. Packers | Top | 15-19 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 21 m | Show |
NFLX Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Pete Carrol comes into this one with a 12-4 ATS career mark in third preseason contests While Green Bay boss Matt LaFleur is 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS in similar Game Three’s. Additionally he is 2-6 overall in exhibition games entering this preseason. Finally, consider that Pete Carroll is 8-4 SUATS in his final preseason game with the Seahawks, including 5-1 ATS when not favored by four or more points. Additionally, teams coming off two consecutive home wins are 19-4 ATS in game 3 when they are dogs of 5 or fewer points. Finally, if the team is off a win of more than 3 points are 14-3 SU and 15-2 ATS. |
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08-26-23 | Bills +107 v. Bears | 24-21 | Win | 107 | 43 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Buffalo laid an egg last week against Pittsburgh, getting their doors blown in, so I expect to see a better performance this week. Now, it's preseason, and it doesn't really matter until the games count, but I don't think the Bills want to go into the regular season with two bad performances. I would expect to see some Josh Allen and maybe even some Stefon Diggs, after the week where his loyalty to the team was publicly questioned. Also, Bills coach Sean McDermott has a good preseason record in his career as he is 13-7, so I would expect a better performance this week. Take the Bills to eke out a win. |
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08-26-23 | Browns v. Chiefs +4 | 32-33 | Win | 100 | 43 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kansas City hasn't publicly determined if starters are playing, or for how long, but even if they don't this game should be tight. All of Cleveland's preseason games have been and it seems like the Chiefs are a deeper unit than the Browns. There's no reason to expect a blowout in this one. Take the Chiefs to keep this within a field goal at least, if not outright win. |
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08-25-23 | Braves -151 v. Giants | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The current Giants are only 4-for-35 with a double and zero RBI against Spencer Strider. IF Strider continues to pitch at a high level, the Giants won’t stand a chance through the first five or six innings. On the other side, the current Braves are 23-for-88 with three home runs and eight RBI versus Logan Webb. Atlanta has recorded a 126 wRC+ and .844 OPS against right-handed pitchers in the last couple of weeks, whereas San Francisco has registered a 66 wRC+ and .592 OPS against the righties in that span. The Giants’ bullpen has been outstanding for most of the season, but over the last ten days, it has compiled a pedestrian 5.69 ERA and 5.27 FIP in 49 innings of work. The Braves’ bullpen has thrown 28.2 innings during that span while tallying a shiny 2.20 ERA and 3.02 FIP. Give me the Braves at the moneyline odds. Their offense should make a difference. |
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08-25-23 | Patriots -133 v. Titans | 7-23 | Loss | -133 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I expect the Patriots to show a bit more on Friday night in the final preseason game. The team is still implementing new OC Bill O'Brien's game plan and will surely be a bit more aggressive offensively than the Titans. The Titans gave second-year QB Willis a major audition last week and the results were subpar at best. Willis and Levis are still vying for that backup spot and Levis may have gained ground by not playing on Saturday night. Vrabel and Belichick have similar coaching styles although Vrabel, an NFL veteran player as well, will likely be even more conservative on Friday night in protecting his veteran players. New England's offensive line was missing a couple of regulars against the Packers on Saturday night which explained some of their protection issues. I expect the Patriots to play a few more veteran offensive linemen on Friday night to give Jones and the first-team offense a few good looks. Zappe will have another significant look as well and rookie quarterback Malik Cunningham should also see some time in the second half. Expect New England to be the more aggressive team and pull out a win in the preseason finale. |
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08-25-23 | Rockies v. Orioles -1.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The O's send out the team's leading winner in Gibson on Friday night. He has an ERA over five at home this season but has still managed to go 5-3 at Camden Yards. Gibson is also 2-0 in his last five starts and will fair well against a Colorado lineup that has struggled on the road this season. Additionally, Gibson's ability to get deeper into games with a team-leading 13 quality starts will play well here as he will get the Orioles to one of the league's top bullpens. The Rockies are scoring nearly two runs per game less on the road this season and feature a lineup that has been depleted following the trading of two regulars at the trade deadline. The Orioles have the fifth-best home-winning percentage in baseball and will have their way with a Colorado team that ranks just 28th in baseball in road-winning percentage. |
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08-25-23 | Cardinals v. Phillies -135 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinals are going nowhere this season and are merely trying to avoid ending the season in the cellar of the NL Central. Mikolas celebrated his 35th birthday Wednesday but has struggled mightily of late for the Redbirds. In his last five starts, he is 0-4 with a 5.61 ERA over the span of 25.2 innings of work. Facing a Phillies team that has motivation as they are holding the top wild card spot in the National League doesn’t really work in the Cardinals’ favor. Philadelphia has played well at home, posting a 36-25 mark, and Sanchez has looked better in recent outings after a slow start to the year. The Phillies are motivated and stand as the better team right now: that’s enough to tilt the scales in their favor here. |
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08-24-23 | Reds v. Diamondbacks -153 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Merrill Kelly will meet the Reds for the first time this season. He’s 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four career starts against Cincinnati, and the current Reds are only 3-for-18 against Kelly. On the other side, the current Diamondbacks are just 2-for-13 with a double versus Brandon Williamson. Arizona has recorded a 78 wRC+ and .173 ISO against left-handed pitchers in the last ten days (49 plate appearances), while Cincinnati has registered a 91 wRC+ and .187 ISO versus the righties in that span (220 PA). The stake is enormous in this series, and today’s opener could easily go either way. I’m backing the Diamondbacks only because they enjoyed a day off on Wednesday, whereas the Reds had to play a doubleheader against the Angels. The Reds’ bullpen has posted a shiny 1.50 ERA to go with a 3.57 FIP in the past ten days, but there will be some tired arms following Wednesday’s twin bill. |
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08-24-23 | Colts -4.5 v. Eagles | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 29 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Indy head coach, Shane Steichen, was Philadelphia’s offensive coordinator the past two seasons and knows the Eagles and their offense better than any coach on the opposite side of the field. Consider that the Colts are 6-0 SUATS in their second preseason road games while Philadelphia is a not so impressive 0-2 SUATS in second-home games (outscored 61-15) of late. |
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08-24-23 | Cubs -160 v. Pirates | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago has won four of its last six overall, while Pittsburgh has lost 14 of its last 20 when facing a team from the National League Central. Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Justin Steele is having an excellent season at 14-3 with a 2.80 ERA. Steele is tied for the major league lead in wins with 14 and the southpaw’s 2.80 ERA is second best. Chicago has won each of the left-hander’s last six starts and over that span Steele has allowed 14 earned runs across 34 ⅔ innings. Pittsburgh has lost five of the last seven games started by Mitch Keller. Pittsburgh’s struggles begin but do not end at the plate. The Pirates score an average of only 4.20 runs per game which is 23rd and have a team batting average of just .236 (27th), while sitting 21st in team ERA at 4.55. Chicago in contrast is scoring an average of 5.04 runs per game which is fifth best in baseball with the 10th best team batting average (.254). |
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08-24-23 | Dodgers -128 v. Guardians | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ryan Pepiot (0-0, 1.80 ERA) of the Dodgers will face Gavin Williams (1-4, 3.02) of the Guardians in a battle of rookie right-handers during the regularly scheduled contest. Pepiot, 26, put his best foot forward after being added to the roster as the 27th man for the Saturday doubleheader against the Miami Marlins. The 6-foot-3, 215-pounder allowed one run on three hits and a walk while striking out five in five innings in during a no-decision. Pepiot will make his 11th career appearance and first against the Guardians. Williams, 24, fell to 0-3 in his last seven outings after being undone by a rocky start on Friday. He allowed three runs in the first inning before tossing four scoreless frames in a 4-2 setback to the Detroit Tigers. |
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08-23-23 | Giants v. Phillies -127 | 8-6 | Loss | -127 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The San Francisco Giants continue to stumble due to a slumping offense and I am not confident they will hold onto a wildcard spot. They have only won two of their road games in August and have dropped seven of their last ten games. The Phillies have won seven of their last ten home games. Giants’ starter Alex Cobb has no confidence these days. He has given up 18 runs in his last 21.1 innings, equating to an abysmal 7.59 ERA. Michael Lorenzen had a dud last time out but has been one of the better pitchers in the big leagues since early July, conceding two or fewer runs in five of his last seven outings. Look for the Phillies to complete the sweep. |
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08-23-23 | Twins v. Brewers -135 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Brewers will turn to ace right-hander Corbin Burnes to extend their winning streak when they host the Minnesota Twins this afternoon in the finale of a two-game interleague series between division leaders. Burnes (9-6, 3.43 ERA) will be opposed by right-hander Kenta Maeda (3-7, 4.13). Burnes is 4-1 with a 2.34 ERA in his past nine starts. In his latest outing, he allowed just two hits en route to seven scoreless innings with nine strikeouts, but he did not get the decision in the Brewers' 1-0 loss to the Dodgers on Thursday. Burnes is 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA in five career games, including four starts, vs. the Twins. In his last seven starts, Maeda is 1-2 with a 3.19 ERA. |
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08-23-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. White Sox | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago will turn to right-hander Michael Kopech today as it tries to salvage a game from Seattle. Kopech (5-11, 5.12 ERA) is coming off a road loss to Colorado on Friday, when he allowed nine runs and six hits -- including three home runs -- in four innings. Kopech is 0-0 with a 1.80 ERA in three career appearances (two starts) against the Mariners, with 13 strikeouts in 10 innings. Facing host Seattle on June 16, he took a no-decision after allowing one run and six hits in 4 1/3 innings, with six walks and four strikeouts. Kirby (10-8, 3.23) got the start in Seattle's most recent bid for a nine-game winning streak before Wednesday. Facing the Baltimore Orioles on Aug. 12, he took a no-decision after scattering three hits and seven strikeouts in nine shutout innings. Baltimore won 1-0 in 10 innings. Kirby hasn't faced the White Sox in his career. Seattle has won 21 of its past 26 road games. A victory Wednesday would give the club a 9-1 road trip. The Mariners are set to begin a six-game homestand against struggling Kansas City and Oakland before opening September with another 10-game trip. Seattle is 4-1 versus the White Sox this season after winning two of three games against Chicago in June. |
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08-22-23 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -117 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Zac Gallen has been a true ace for the Diamondbacks thus far. I’m behind him in this game even though the current Rangers are 18-for-64 with three doubles, a triple, and a home run against Gallen, who holds a shiny 10-1 record and 1.82 ERA at home this season. On the other side, the current D-backs are 37-for-124 with seven extra-base hits, four dingers, and 17 RBI against Jon Gray, who owns a 4.68 ERA in 50 innings pitched at Chase Field. |
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08-22-23 | Mariners -150 v. White Sox | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Clevinger has pitched well of late and took a bitter no-decision in his last start against the Cubs as the bullpen blew a 3-0 lead to lose 4-3. Clevinger has struggled against Seattle in his career. He enters today at 0-2 with a 7.41 ERA in three previous starts versus the Mariners, allowing four home runs in 17 innings. The White Sox have to contend with a Seattle team that has been on fire of late and is more than capable of battering opposing pitchers into the ground. We’ve seen the Mariners record seven different four-hit games from players in the last week, including a torrid run by Julio Rodriguez. Seattle is clicking on all cylinders and they take care of business here to earn another victory. |
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08-22-23 | Rockies v. Rays -1.5 | 4-12 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays come into this series winners of three of their last four games and still very much alive to win the American League East division and possibly earn a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Littell has adjusted to his starting role with an ERA of just over two and a half in that time and has pitched into the sixth inning in each of his last three starts. While the Rockies are coming off a good series against the White Sox, they are not the same hitting team on the road this season. The Rockies are scoring just 3.7 runs per game on the road this season, which would be the second-worst mark in baseball. Tampa Bay has hit extremely well at home this year and will take advantage of the Rockies' road woes. |
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08-21-23 | Mariners -179 v. White Sox | 14-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago, long out of the playoff picture despite lofty expectations, has lost six of its past eight while Seattle come in on a six-game winning streak. Seattle will turn to right-hander Luis Castillo (9-7, 3.23 ERA), who has won two consecutive starts and three of four. In two career starts against Chicago, covering 12 1/3 innings, Castillo is 0-0 with a 2.92 ERA. Righty Touki Toussaint (1-5, 4.47) is set to start for the White Sox. He is coming off a no-decision against the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday, when he allowed three runs and three hits in four-plus innings. Toussaint struggled in his only previous appearance against Seattle, allowing four runs and three hits in 2 2/3 innings last August. The Mariners took two of three games from the visiting White Sox when the clubs met in Seattle from June 16-18. |
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08-21-23 | Ravens -3 v. Commanders | 28-29 | Loss | -110 | 170 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Washington Ron Rivera is 4-7 ATS in preseason home openers – including 0-3 ATS against opponents coming off a win. Baltimore comes into this one a long-term 67-37 SU and 61-31-2 ATS preseason in all games dating back to 1998, including 17-7 SUATS in road openers. Finally Washington is 1-9 outright in this preseason series, including 0-5 the last five and 0-3 SUATS as a host. |
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08-21-23 | Mets v. Braves -1.5 | 10-4 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Winans will be recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett to face visiting New York in the series opener. Left-hander David Peterson (3-7, 5.45 ERA) will start for the Mets. Winans (1-0, 1.59) will be called up to make his third career start. On Aug. 12 he was added to the big-league roster for a doubleheader against the Mets and pitched seven scoreless innings, allowing four hits, two walks and striking out nine. Atlanta won that game 21-3. Peterson will be making his 10th career appearance (ninth start) against the Braves. He is 3-4 with a 4.83 ERA versus Atlanta. In his last start against the Braves on April 28, Peterson gave up four runs in five innings. Braves are 7-1 in their last eight home games with six wins coming by multiple runs. |
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08-21-23 | Cubs -125 v. Tigers | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chicago offense, one of MLB's top-five run-scoring units, gets to open this game against a starting pitcher with an ERA above 6.00 in his home park. That sounds like an early lead to me. Once Chicago gets in front, it'll be on the pitchers to hold down one of the league's worst offenses. The Cubs' pitching staff will also be aided by Comerica Park's pitcher-friendly dimensions. Javier Assad has been solid, Chicago's bullpen has also delivered enough, and the offense is red-hot. Against a Detroit team that only seems to succeed against their rivals, that'll be plenty for a multi-run win. |
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08-20-23 | Saints -150 v. Chargers | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 54 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Two opposing coaching strategies when it comes to preseason football will come into play. Saints head coach Allen has already shown a commitment to getting reps for some of his starters in the preseason and that trend should continue in this matchup. Carr looked sharp in the opener and led the Saints down the field on a scoring drive in his limited action. Backup quarterback Jameson should also see a good amount of time here and the former starter should perform well against what should be second and third-team defensive players for the Chargers. After suffering through a season full of injuries in 2022, Staley has decided to take a more conservative approach this preseason. It is doubtful that Herbert will play more than a series or two in this game after sitting out the entire first preseason game. On the defensive side of the ball, the Chargers are loaded with veterans that Staley will be best served to rest until the games count. With that in mind, I like the Saints to put up a decent number against the Chargers' second and third-stringers on defense, particularly the Saints' passing game. |
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08-20-23 | Orioles -1.5 v. A's | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A pair of second-year major-leaguers will get the ball this afternoon when right-hander Kyle Bradish and the visiting Baltimore Orioles look to complete a three-game sweep against lefty JP Sears and the Oakland Athletics. Bradish (7-6, 3.18 ERA) has pitched the Orioles to three straight wins in August, going 1-0 with a 2.55 ERA against the Toronto Blue Jays, New York Mets and Seattle Mariners. He has struck out 19 over 17 2/3 innings in that stretch. The Fujinami trade has created more opportunities for Oakland's young pitchers, including the 27-year-old Sears (2-9, 4.27), who hasn't won since July 28. He has gone 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA in his three August starts against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals. Sears took his first loss of the season in the April series in Baltimore, allowing three runs in five innings in a 5-1 setback. Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle homered off him in that game. |
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08-20-23 | Brewers v. Rangers -1.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Scherzer has always been a big-game pitcher and he has brought that mentality with him to Texas in the early going. He is a perfect 3-0 in his three starts and has an ERA under two thus far. In addition, Scherzer has excelled while pitching in front of the home crowd with a perfect 5-0 record when pitching at home this season. Scherzer faces a Milwaukee lineup that scored just three runs total in the three losses in Los Angeles. He has done an exceptional job of keeping the ball out of play with his 11.7 K/9 rate since arriving in Texas. Scherzer should get plenty of support from baseball's second-highest run-producing team against the Brewers' Houser. Texas is #1 in baseball in runs per game at home this season with over six per contest. |
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08-20-23 | Blue Jays -105 v. Reds | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Greene was pitching well before he went on the 60-day IL, he hasn’t pitched well at home this season and gave up 11 runs in his last three home starts. He will also be dealing with some rust and he’s facing a Toronto team that has done a good job hitting right-handers this season. Toronto starter Ryu has looked good on the mound since his first start of the season, giving up two runs in his last two starts. He has also had a lot of success against the Reds, with a 5-2 record in eight starts against them. He didn’t give up a run in his last two starts against the Reds. |
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08-19-23 | Cowboys +7 v. Seahawks | 14-22 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We should see a solid number of points being scored this weekend, as the two squads combined for 47 in Week 1. The Cowboys may not have gotten the victory, but that certainly wasn’t due to their offense. Quarterbacks Cooper Rush and Will Grier both played fantastic, finishing with a combined stat line of 32/43 for 282 yards and two touchdowns to one interception. Even Deuce Vaughn produced a solid performance out of the backfield, finishing with one touchdown on 6.2 yards per carry. Consider as well, that playing against any home favorite of 6 or more points off a win if that win was by 10 or more points is 24-6 (80%) ATS. |
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08-19-23 | Orioles -161 v. A's | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oakland may have won the final game of their series against the Cardinals on the road but the fact remains that they own the worst record in the American League. The A’s have been brutal both at the plate and on the mound this season: facing an Orioles team that has pushed to the top of the AL East is not a good matchup for them. A's pitcher Cole Irvin will face off against his ex teammate in Ken Waldichuk. Irvin has not surrendered an earned run in four consecutive appearances and has solid splits pitching at the Coliseum. Waldicuk has struggled this season posting an ERA over 6.00 this year. |
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08-19-23 | Patriots v. Packers -140 | 21-17 | Loss | -140 | 34 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There wasn’t much in the way of inspiring play for the Patriots in their preseason opener as they didn’t find the end zone until less than two minutes to play with the game well out of reach. The fact that Cunningham sparked the team makes you wonder if he could potentially unseat McSorley for the #3 QB role should the team carry that many quarterbacks with Jones and Zappe entrenched in the first two spots. Green Bay got sharp performances from Love and Clifford at the quarterback spot in their preseason opener. The Packers looked far better than the Patriots in the opener and with the home crowd behind them, you have to give them the advantage as the Patriots are looking for pieces while getting Elliott in the mix. |
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08-19-23 | Mariners +134 v. Astros | 10-3 | Win | 134 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners are back in the playoff hunt! Since July 20, they are 20-7 and have been playing excellent baseball. They won as underdogs in the series opener against the Houston Astros yesterday and will be looking to extend their winning streak to 5 while claiming a huge divisional series in the process. Remove his no-hitter from the equation and Houston’s Framber Valdez has been mediocre at best recently. Without the no-hitter, Valdez has a 7.40 ERA over his last 5 starts. Since he accomplished the rare feat, he has surrendered 9 runs and 14 hits in 14.2 innings. I believe Valdez will have a hard time slowing down this red-hot Mariners’ offense that ranks top 5 in BA and OPS over the last 30 days. Seattle has also been cranking lefties recently with a 134 wRC+ and .819 OPS against left-handed pitching this month. |
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08-19-23 | Bears +5 v. Colts | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 36 m | Show | |
These two teams met this week in practice games, so there will be a some familiarity between the two when they suit up on Saturday night. While neither team has said who will start at quarterback and who will play among other key positions, I think both teams will give their young quarterbacks and new receivers a run in this game as they need to establish that chemistry. I give the edge to the Bears with Fields and Moore and their defense, winning the first unit battle. The Colts probably have better depth at quarterback, but they are dealing with a lot of injuries, so we'll probably see a lot of third and fourth stringers late. The Bears should be easily able to cover getting 5 points. |
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08-19-23 | Royals v. Cubs -1.5 | 4-6 | Win | 105 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While Royals' starter Singer has pitched better as of late, he has struggled on the road all season. Singer has an ERA over six away from home and has struggled with his command. He's also given up 61 hits in 49.2 innings on the road which will not play well against a Cubs offense that has been thriving up and down the roster. Cubs' starter Steele has had a dominant season with 13 wins in 16 decisions and an ERA under three. He's been even better at home this season with a 9-2 record and a 2.63 ERA. Over his last five starts, Steele is undefeated and won four times. The Cubs are very much alive in the chase for the NL Central Division crown and can't afford a letup against a team they should beat. |
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08-18-23 | Mariners v. Astros -140 | 2-0 | Loss | -140 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Astros have lost five of seven games to the Mariners this season. With the M's playing even better since the All-Star break, they'll have the Astros full attention today. Miller got the best of Houston in his second big league outing, surrendering just two hits and no runs in six innings. While he's been pretty consistent since his dominant start, he's also had some putrid performances, surrendering six-plus runs on four occasions. The Astros should be more confident in their second game against the rookie right-hander today. Houston is slashing .264 BA/.349 OBP/.454 SLG/.803 OPS in the second half, a significant improvement from the first half of the season (.247/.316/.407/.723). It's scoring 1.3 more runs per game, too. With the dependable France on the hill (zero runs in five innings vs. the Mariners on May 6), it's the Astros for the win tonight. |
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08-18-23 | Brewers v. Rangers -118 | 9-8 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Milwaukee starter, Woodruff still working his way back from injury, questions remain as to how he'll hold up against one of baseball's top offenses. Heaney on the other hand, has been one of the American League's best pitchers over the last month and against a Milwaukee lineup that has struggled on offense, will give them another upper hand. The Rangers have been one of baseball's best teams at home this season and combining their advantages in the lineup, on the mound, and in the avenue this one will be played, the Rangers will come away with an easy win to set the tone tonight for the weekend. |
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08-18-23 | Bengals +6.5 v. Falcons | 13-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bengals to remain very conservative in the preseason to keep all of their starters healthy entering what should be a challenging season in what could be the best division in football, the AFC North. The Falcons have a team built to earn a playoff spot but aren't Super Bowl-driven just yet. Redder has a lot of game experience to earn this season and his learning curve would have to be very swift to get the Falcons to the Super Bowl. However, consider that playing against any home favorite of 6 or more points off a win if that win was by 10 or more points is 24-6 (80%) since 1983. |
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08-18-23 | Giants v. Braves -1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The San Francisco Giants are stumbling, losing seven of their last ten bouts after a series loss to the Rays. The Atlanta Braves continue to dominate, winning eight of their last nine home clashes after sweeping the Yankees. Giants’ starter Alex Cobb has not been a reliable option. The right-hander has issued a disastrous 8.04 ERA in his three starts this month and the Giants have lost in three of his last four outings. Spencer Strider has conceded two or fewer runs in three of his last four starts. I can’t see a slumping Giants offense getting to MLB's strikeout leader. I recommend the run line considering nine of the Braves' last ten wins have occurred by two or more runs. |
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08-17-23 | Brewers v. Dodgers -141 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Over his last eight starts, Burnes is 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 57 strikeouts in 50 2/3 innings. The worst of those eight outings came in his most recent start, on Friday against the host Chicago White Sox, when he gave up five runs on eight hits over 5 2/3 innings in a game Milwaukee won 7-6 in 10 innings. Now he meets the Dodgers, against whom he is 2-2 with an 8.50 ERA over six career outings (four starts). It is his second-worst ERA against any team, better than just his 9.16 mark vs. the Atlanta Braves. Dodgers right-hander Lance Lynn (9-9, 5.88 ERA) takes the mound on Thursday, having posted a 3-0 record with a 2.00 ERA in three starts with his new club. Lynn was acquired from the Chicago White Sox at the trade deadline. The Dodgers have no concerns at the present time when it comes to winning. In addition to their winning streak, they have gone 14-1 in August. |
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08-17-23 | Diamondbacks -106 v. Padres | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Arizona Diamondbacks are playing better after a slump and just won two of three against this Padres squad this last weekend followed by a series win at Coors Field. The Padres continue to be a huge disappointment and have dropped seven of their last ten decisions. D-Backs’ starter Zac Gallen has excelled against the Padres this season, limiting the rivals to only five runs (four earned) in 19 innings pitched including six shutout innings against them last Saturday in a 3-0 win. The ace has registered a 3.34 ERA in his career against the Padres. Rich Hill is struggling, surrendering nine runs in his two starts in a Padres uniform, lasting less than four innings in each outing. |
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08-17-23 | Browns +4 v. Eagles | 18-18 | Win | 100 | 71 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units NFL preseason home teams in Game Two have struggled against those teams playing their third contest, as they have gone 18-30-3 since 1990 against opponents who won at least one preseason game the previous year – including going 9-20 SU and 6-21-2 ATS as defending Super Bowl losers against opponents playing their 3rd preseason contest. The Browns are, 14-4 SU and 12-5-1 ATS since 2017, including 6-0-1 ATS as a dog entering this year’s preseason. |
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08-17-23 | Mets -124 v. Cardinals | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright is getting one more chance to steer his farewell season back on track. In his past two starts, Wainwright (3-7, 8.78 ERA) retired just 12 batters while allowing 15 runs on 18 hits. The Cardinals will start him today against the visiting New York Mets in the opener of a four-game series. However, this is the last opportunity team management is promising him. The 41-year-old right-hander allowed eight runs on nine hits in one-plus inning during his last start, a 12-8 loss to the Kansas City Royals on Friday. The Mets will counter Wainwright with former Cardinals hurler Jose Quintana (0-4, 3.03 ERA), who will make his sixth start since recovering from rib surgery. He allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of five starts this season. Quintana is 5-4 with a 4.42 ERA in 12 career starts against the Cardinals. |
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08-16-23 | Orioles +146 v. Padres | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Blake Snell, who’s issued four free passes in each of his last three starts, will have a tall task to keep the Orioles in check. Baltimore is very dangerous when hitting the southpaws and sports a .266/.324/.427 triple-slash, 102 wRC+, 8.0 BB%, and 16.1 K% across 137 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers in August. San Diego owns a .246/.309/.401 triple-slash and 97 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers in August (369 PA). The current Padres are 3-for-19 against Dean Kremer, so I’m going with the Orioles at plus money. San Diego desperately needs to start winning in sequences, but the Padres’ offense has been underperforming all season long. The Orioles are undefeated in Kremer’s last seven starts even though Dean has had a couple of rough outings in that stretch. Over the last ten days, Baltimore’s bullpen has thrown 29 innings while recording a 3.72 ERA and 3.86 FIP, whereas San Diego’s bullpen has registered a 4.33 ERA and 4.52 FIP across 35.1 innings of work. |
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08-16-23 | Angels v. Rangers -1.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers have been firing on all cylinders going 12-2 in August and are scoring 5.6 runs per game and should drive in runs at will against the Angels pitchers with Carey Seager, Adolis Garcia, and the rest of the lineup making contact and crushing pitches to easily drive in runs. The Rangers should limit the Angels' lineup with Jon Gray on the mound and giving way to the bullpen to close out the game with a comfortable lead. |
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08-16-23 | Yankees v. Braves -1.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees have struggled all season as injuries to both their lineup and their pitching staff has left the team scrambling to avoid the cellar of the AL East, where they currently reside. This was a team that was expected to contend instead of being mired in mediocrity. Having to throw a rookie like Vasquez, regardless of how sharp he has looked in limited innings at the big league level, against a lineup like Atlanta’s is like walking around with a kick me sign on your back. Morton got in the win in his last start despite reverting to his early career wildness. The Braves’ bats are more than capable of putting up big numbers. |
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08-15-23 | Mariners -142 v. Royals | 10-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seattle starter, Lyles has struggled on the mound this season and gave up 17 runs in his last four starts. He gave up 10 runs in his last three starts against the Mariners, and with Kansas City having the second-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Mariners in this game. Seattle hasn’t hit the ball well against right-handers and Hancock looked good on the mound in his first start and with Seattle having the second-best bullpen in the league, they won’t have trouble keeping Kansas City’s offense in check. |
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08-15-23 | Yankees v. Braves -1.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The pitching matchup today features Atlanta's Bryce Elder (8-4, 3.64 ERA) and New York's Luis Severino (2-7, 8.06). Severino will make his 15th appearance, 14th start, of the season. He last pitched on Wednesday in his first relief outing of the year, following an opener. He took the loss after allowing four runs in two-plus innings against the Chicago White Sox. Severino yielded five hits and one walk while striking out two. In his last start, on Aug. 4 against the Houston Astros, he gave up five runs in four-plus innings during a losing effort. Severino missed the first 48 games of the season because of a right lat strain. He has yet to find the form that made him a two-time All-Star (2017-18). The Braves have scored six runs or more in five straight games and have won four of those games by six runs or more. |
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08-15-23 | Astros -123 v. Marlins | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Marlins will start right-hander Johnny Cueto (0-3, 5.33 ERA) today as they go for a series win. In 15 career starts against Houston, Cueto is 5-6 with a 3.14 ERA. Miami is just 1-5 in Cueto's six games this year, but he is giving the Marlins decent length, going six innings in three of his past four starts. Houston will start Cristian Javier (8-2, 4.36). The right-hander, who has never faced the Marlins, has a high spin rate on his fastball and curve. His slider, meanwhile, is regarded as one of the best in baseball. Astros are a healthy 15-7 this year when Javier pitches, including an 8-2 win over the Baltimore Orioles last Wednesday. Javier gave up two runs on four hits in five innings during that contest. |
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08-14-23 | Angels v. Rangers -170 | 0-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Scherzer (11-4, 3.88 ERA) won his first two starts with Texas following his trade from the New York Mets at the end of July and owns three straight wins overall. He most recently took limiting a weak Oakland squad to one run and three hits in seven innings of a 6-1 win on Tuesday. Scherzer has faced the Angels six times in his career and is 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA. The Angels plan to start left-hander Patrick Sandoval. Sandoval (6-8, 3.86) is going through a solid stretch of his own, posting a 2-1 mark and 1.86 ERA over his past five starts. Sandoval is 1-2 in six career appearances against the Rangers, including five starts, with a 3.07 ERA. |
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08-14-23 | Pirates +105 v. Mets | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pittsburgh Pirates are a young, hungry team, excelling against strong competition. They recently played the Brewers and won two of four road bouts and followed by another two wins in four meetings against the Braves last week. The Mets have several rookies in the lineup after making so many deals and have been a disaster, dropping eight of their last ten games. Mets’ starter Carlos Carrasco has been obliterated by the opposition in most of his starts. The veteran has surrendered 15 runs in his last five outings spanning only 20.1 innings. The Pirates have scored 17 runs in three games against the Mets this season. |
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08-14-23 | Astros -137 v. Marlins | 1-5 | Loss | -137 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After Miami took two of three games last season in this series, Houston will have revenge on their mind, which will drive home a road win for one of baseball's best road teams. Their depth is key, while their ability to generate runs has been unmatched this season, especially in the middle of the lineup. The depth for Miami simply isn't there and their run production, or lack thereof, will come back to haunt them in this one. Braxton Garrett will be on the mound for the Marlins and Houston is excellent versus opposing lefties. |
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08-13-23 | Padres -134 v. Diamondbacks | 4-5 | Loss | -134 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A rookie pitcher with nearly as many home innings (26.0) as runs allowed at home (25) is tasked with taking down one of MLB's hottest offenses. One loaded with stars and that just faced the Arizona ace on Saturday night. Brandon Pfaadt is being fed to wolves. Usually, the Diamondbacks could at least hope the offense could save them, but they've been nonexistent for over a month. The Padres, who have already been dominating this matchup in 2023, will win easily. |
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08-13-23 | 49ers v. Raiders +4 | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 49ers and Raiders have been participating in joint practices in Nevada this week. QB Trey Lance will start for the 49ers as QB Brock Purdy is still recovering from the elbow injury he suffered in last season’s playoffs. QB Sam Darnold will also get some snaps. Former 49ers signal caller Jimmy Garoppolo is now the starter in Las Vegas, but he’ll only make a cameo, at best. Veteran backup QB Brian Hoyer also is likely to play little, if at all. Look for backup QBs Chase Garbers and Aidan O’Connell to get the longest looks, as they battle for the 3rd job. The Raiders played 4 preseason games a season ago with the Hall of Fame game, and Las Vegas was 4-0 against the spread (ATS). The Raiders also scored 23 or more points in 3 of the 4 outings. This organization has taken preseason games seriously in recent years, winning 11 of the past 13 outright. |
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08-13-23 | Yankees -124 v. Marlins | 7-8 | Loss | -124 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cole (10-3, 2.75 ERA) will square off against Miami rookie Eury Perez (5-4, 2.79) in a battle of right-handers in the series finale. The Yankees are 9-1 this season when Cole pitches after his team loses its previous game, although that setback came to pass in his last outing. Cole, 32, looks to rebound after sustaining his first loss in over a month in his last outing. The six-time All-Star was charged with four runs on five hits in seven-plus innings of a 5-1 setback against the Chicago White Sox on Monday. Perez, 20, has lost his last three decisions with the Marlins, including a 5-2 setback against the Cincinnati Reds on Monday that marked his first big-league start since July 6. The 6-foot-8 hurler permitted four runs on five hits -- including homers on consecutive pitches in the fourth inning -- in that contest. |
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08-13-23 | Reds +124 v. Pirates | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In the first game today, left-hander Brandon Williamson (4-2, 4.54 ERA) gets the nod for Cincinnati, while Pittsburgh right-hander Mitch Keller (9-8, 4.39) will start for Pittsburgh. Williamson, who has never faced the Pirates, will be making his 16th career start and appearance. Over his past seven starts, he is 3-1 with a 3.19 ERA. Keller, after asserting himself as the Pirates' ace and pitching in his first All-Star Game, has seen a regression. He has lost his past five decisions, is coming off a no-decision, and will be looking for his first win since June 28. Keller is 2-4 with a 6.49 ERA in 13 career starts against the Reds, including 1-0 with a 5.06 ERA in two starts this year. |
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08-12-23 | Rangers +111 v. Giants | 9-3 | Win | 111 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Today's scheduled starting pitcher, left-hander Andrew Heaney (9-6, 4.14 ERA), has led the way in two of the Rangers' past nine wins. He hasn't allowed a run in either of his two August starts, a 2-0 win over the Chicago White Sox and 6-0 triumph over the Miami Marlins. The 32-year-old went a total of 11 2/3 innings in those games, allowing six hits while striking out 15, extending his unbeaten streak to four games in his past five starts, including wins in each of the past three. San Francisco starter, Cobb is winless in his past five starts. He's coming off an 8-6 loss to the Oakland Athletics on Sunday in which he did not get a decision after allowing five runs in 5 1/3 innings. |
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08-12-23 | Chargers +3 v. Rams | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chargers will come away with the win in this one, as their youth leads the way. While a regular season game might lead to a different outcome, the Rams aren’t expected to play many of their super stars. The Chargers youth has been well-noted over the last few years, while a strong draft in the spring brings along plenty of talent, all itching to see the field. That youthfulness will be a major different in this exhibition, as the Chargers not only cover the spread, but also grab the win. |
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08-12-23 | Eagles v. Ravens -150 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 225 h 47 m | Show |
NFLX Game of the Year Rating: 5 Units John Harbaugh is not only riding a 22-game win streak in the exhibition season (20-2-1 ATS) but is also 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS at home in preseason openers. In addition, the Eagles enter highly touted this season despite falling in the Super Bowl. Therefore keep in mind that Super Bowl losers are 10-20 SU and 6-23-1 ATS in preseason openers since 1992, including 3-16 ATS against foes who won 2 or more preseason affairs the previous year. |
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08-12-23 | Twins v. Phillies +100 | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Walker has been exceptional at home this year in what has thus far been a career year for the right-hander. He has an ERA under three at home and his hits to innings pitched numbers at home are vastly superior to his numbers on the road. He faces a Twins' lineup that will be without its best hitter, Buxton, and leads baseball in strikeouts per game. Expect the Twins to see a number of split-fingered fastballs out of the zone from Walker until they can lay off the pitch. The Phillies will not put up big numbers in this game either facing Lopez who has had his best strikeout season as a big leaguer. With that in mind, I'm going to lean toward the better lineup in this matchup and that advantage clearly falls to the Phillies. The Phillies 1 through 9 are better suited to face Lopez than the depleted Twins' lineup is to battle Walker. Minnesota is under .500 on the road while the Phillies are one of the better home teams in baseball. |
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08-12-23 | Jaguars v. Cowboys +4 | 28-23 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There's a new offensive coordinator, Brian Schottenheimer, calling plays for the Boys this year, and I believe he will be out to prove himself in this game. There is a lot of talent on the Dallas offense, and Rush has proven to be a legitimate starting QB. I don't think the spread should be larger than a field goal with the Cowboys at home and predict we'll see a competitive performance from Dallas, even when Jacksonville's starters take the field. Jacksonville may lead the game for a while, but once its starters are out of the game, it will see its lead begin to slip away with Rush or Grier outdueling Beathard. The Cowboys won't give up too many points on defense after halftime, locking in with the home crowd at its back. The depth chart looks almost identical to last season, even in the second unit. That continuity will be evident in preseason week one. |
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08-12-23 | Tigers v. Red Sox -185 | 6-2 | Loss | -185 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Red Sox are still very much in the fight for a playoff spot and will prosper against Manning, who has an ERA over six in his last five starts. The Red Sox are hitting nearly .290 at home this season and have hit 65 home runs in 59 home games as well as 142 doubles. The Red Sox's left-handed heavy lineup will thrive against Manning today with three starters hitting .290 or better against righties this season. The Tigers are 28th in batting average overall and dead last in batting average on the road this season. Sox starter Bello has been sharp at home with an ERA of just over three this season and 54 strikeouts in just over sixty innings pitched. Expect the Sox to take advantage of the inexperienced Manning making his first start at Fenway |
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08-11-23 | Broncos -6 v. Cardinals | 17-18 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A video from Arizona’s preseason practice recently went viral, but not for a good reason. The offense looked in shambles and nobody seemed to be on the right page which is incredibly concerning since they won’t have Kyler Murray back for a while. Heading into the first week of the preseason, the Cardinals’ quarterback options consist of Colt McCoy, Clayton Tune and David Blough. To the average NFL fan, you might be going “who?” to the last two names. Obviously, that’s a problem. Another problem Arizona has is the health of their regular starters, like Hollywood Brown and Zach Ertz, who are both dealing with injuries. If the Cardinals have to dig deep into their depth chart for Friday’s game, it could get out of hand quickly. |
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08-11-23 | Packers v. Bengals +4.5 | 36-19 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cincinnati Bengals and Green Bay Packers get their respective preseasons underway in Ohio tonight, with the Packers firm favorites as Jordan Love looks to prove why he is QB1 for Green Bay. Factored into this line as well is the fact that Joe Burrow is out injured, meaning it will be Trevor Siemian and Jake Browning under center for Cincinnati. However, it feels like there has been an overreaction and there is value in taking the points with the Bengals. Cincinnati’s preseason record in recent years isn’t the greatest, but they do tend to run teams close. Only twice since 2019 have they lost by more than four points and there should be greater motivation in this game with both Siemian and Browning looking to make a case for why they should start the season if Burrow is unable to go. |
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08-10-23 | Texans v. Patriots +3 | 20-9 | Loss | -113 | 51 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams had their issues last season and the hope that they can improve in 2023 is a work in progress. Houston has a lot of youth on both sides of the ball as they added what they hope will be anchors for the franchise. New England does have the experience factor with Belichick as their head coach but they have to find ways to improve the offense. We know that the Patriots have some talent at skill positions but It remains to be seen how things will click on that side of the ball with O’Brien back to take over the play calling. As it stands, you have to give the edge to the team with some proven experience in this one. |
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