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American League MVP Predictions & Handicapping Insight
Last season, Mike Trout won his third American League Most Valuable Player Award in a particularly close vote over second-place Alex Bregman, 355 to 335. Marcus Semien (228), DJ LeMahieu (178) and Xander Bogaerts (147) rounded out the top-5.
Trout won his first MVP in 2014 after finishing second the previous two seasons. Since then, he’s finished second another two times with a dreadful fourth-place finish in 2017.
He won it last season despite missing nearly 30 games and actually hasn’t had what most would consider a fully healthy season since playing 159 games in 2016. He’s that much better than everybody else but doesn’t offer much growth potential at +125.
2020 AL MVP Futures Betting Odds – Aaron Judge +1200
The guy I dare to mention in the same breath as Trout is the first I’m buying in 2020. He’s the second favorite on the board but offers better growth potential at +1200. He hasn’t won an MVP yet but finished second in his only fully healthy season in 2017.
Aaron Judge scares pitchers. He’s hit just 27 home run in each of the last two seasons but missed 50 games in 2018 and 60 last year. I chalk much of it up to dumb (bad) luck. He plays a good right field field and the Yankees aren’t going to lose many games this year.
More interestingly, the price on him hasn’t moved much since it was believed he would miss at least the first few weeks of April. He’ll be ready when everybody else is now. Plus, he’s 27 years old and in a contract year.
Judge is my big bite. I have a small bite and two little nibbles left.
Aaron Judge scares pitchers. He’s hit just 27 home run in each of the last two seasons but missed 50 games in 2018 and 60 last year. I chalk much of it up to dumb (bad) luck. He plays a good right field field and the Yankees aren’t going to lose many games this year.
More interestingly, the price on him hasn’t moved much since it was believed he would miss at least the first few weeks of April. He’ll be ready when everybody else is now. Plus, he’s 27 years old and in a contract year.
Judge is my big bite. I have a small bite and two little nibbles left.
2020 AL MVP Futures Betting Odds – Francisco Lindor +1800
Francisco Lindor is the bite. He missed slightly more time last year after three consecutive seasons of at least 158 games played and finishing in the top-10 of the MVP vote. He’s available at +1800, fifth in the list of favorites.
I’m not sure there are four players in all of baseball more talented than Lindor and I know there aren’t four players more talented in the American League alone.
He plays a sensational shortstop and will get you at least 20 stolen bases in a full season but his bat just hasn’t been big enough to get him over the MVP hump.
A shorter season provides the opportunity for a guy like Lindor to start hot and never quite cool off. If that happens, and the Indians win, he has a real chance to stick out as the guy who made it happen. If it isn’t going to be Trout and it isn’t going to be Judge, it might be Lindor.
I believe those three are the three most talented in the American League. I feel less certain about the fourth but I have my eyes on two third-basemen who were once part of the same organization.
2020 AL MVP Futures Betting Odds – Rafael Devers/Yoan Moncada +3000/+3500
One of the reasons Boston made the trade for Chris Sale a few years ago was because it had Rafael Devers and Yoan Moncada.
Last season, both guys mashed at ridiculously young ages. Devers was the only bat comparable with Trout in the second half and finished with a league-leading 359 total bases. Moncada’s 141 OPS+ was even better than Devers’ and just outside the Major League top-10.
Devers loses the opportunity to hit behind Mookie Betts, which shouldn’t be lost. He also won’t turn 24 until October and genuinely looked like the best player not named “Trout” when last year’s regular season ended.
Moncada, who turns 25 this summer, will hit in an improved lineup with a bottom that will provide him more RBI opportunities from the 2-spot. His price has shot up at some ‘books (including BetOnline) but he’s still available at +3500 or better at enough shops.
2020 AL MVP Futures Betting Odds via BetOnline
- Mike Trout +125
- Aaron Judge +1200
- Gleyber Torres +1200
- Alex Bregman +1600
- Francisco Lindor +1600
- Shohei Ohtani +1800
- Yoan Moncada +1800
- Josh Donaldson +2000
- DJ LeMahieu +2500
- Matt Chapman +2500
- Anthony Rendon +3000
- Gerrit Cole +3000
- Marcus Semien +3000
- Rafael Devers +3000
- Vladimir Guerrero +3300
- JD Martinez +4000
- Jorge Polanco +4000
- Jose Altuve +4000
- Matt Olson +4000
- Yordan Alvarez +4000
- Austin Meadows +5000
- Eloy Jimenez +5000
- Gary Sanchez +5000
- George Springer +5000
- Jose Ramirez +5000
- Xander Bogaerts +5000
- Nelson Cruz +6600
- Odds via BetOnline
- March 30th 2020
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