Free NFL Week 1 Pick: Commanders vs. Buccaneers Odds
Looking for Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Commanders taking on the Buccaneers on Sunday, September 8th at the Raymond James Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 1 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Washington Tampa Bay matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 1
(0-0) Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)
Date: Sunday, September 8th
Time: 4:25 ET
Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay FL
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Washington +3.5 | Tampa Bay -3.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Washington +147 | Tampa Bay -175
NFL Betting Total: O/U 43.5
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Commanders vs. Buccaneers Gameday
It’s Week 1 of the NFL season, and we’re diving headfirst into the action with some red-hot betting insight! Buckle up for the Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers showdown, a classic underdog story in the making. With Washington sitting at +3.5 against Tampa Bay, this matchup is shaping up to be a tight one.
The Commanders and Buccaneers did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Commanders have a record of 2-1. The Commanders also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0. These games averaged a combined total of 39 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
Washington Commanders
Washington’s struggles at home contributed to their tough season, as they went 0-7-1 against the spread and 1-7 in their home games. Overall, the Commanders finished with a disappointing 4-13 record, placing them 4th in the NFC East. Within their division, they didn’t win a single game, going 0-6. On the road, they were 6-3 ATS.
Against teams with winning records, Washington went 0-9, but they managed to go 4-4 against teams with losing records. Their over/under record was 10-7, and their games averaged 49.8 points per game, with the Commanders ranking 5th in the league in average combined scoring.
Washington Commanders Stats
Washington’s offense was 32nd in rushing attempts last season, reflecting a clear emphasis on the passing game, where they ranked 2nd in attempts. Despite this heavy focus on passing, the Commanders were only 19th in passing yards per game, averaging 219.1 yards. Overall, they were 23rd in the league in offensive power rankings, averaging 19.4 points per game (25th) and 312.8 yards per game (24th).
The Commanders struggled to sustain drives, ranking 22nd in third-down conversion percentage. In the red zone, they were 19th in conversion percentage. On the ground, Washington was 26th in rushing yards, averaging 93.6 yards per game.
Washington’s receiving group is led by Terry McLaurin, who is heading into his 6th season in the league. McLaurin played in 17 games last year and finished with 1,002 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Behind him, Dyami Brown had 168 yards and one touchdown, while Olamide Zaccheaus, acquired from the Eagles, had 164 yards and two touchdowns. McLaurin averaged 7.7 fantasy points per game last season.
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Washington’s defense gave up 30.5 points per game last season, the worst in the NFL. They also allowed the most yards per game, with an average of 388.9. This included giving up 262.2 passing yards per game, the worst in the league.
The Commanders’ inability to pressure the quarterback was a big issue, as they were below average in both sacks and quarterback hits. Opposing quarterbacks had a collective passer rating of 104.49 against Washington, the highest in the league.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers’ playoff run last season ended in the NFC Divisional round with a 31-23 loss to the Lions. Tampa Bay finished the regular season with a 9-8 record, putting them 1st in the NFC South but 4th in the NFC overall. They were 8-2 against the spread on the road, but 4-5 at home. Their over/under record was 7-12, with their games averaging a combined 40.4 points per game.
Against teams with winning records, the Buccaneers went 4-8, but they dominated below .500 teams with a 6-1 record. Last season, they went 12-7 against the spread.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Stats
The Buccaneers’ offense was a high-scoring unit last season, with their games averaging 40.4 points, which was 24th in the league. They were led by quarterback Tom Brady, and they finished the season with a 9-8 record, placing them 1st in the NFC South but 4th in the NFC overall. In the playoffs, they made it to the divisional round before falling to the Lions, 31-23. Against the spread, the Buccaneers were 12-7, with a strong 9-4 mark as the underdog, but only 3-3 as the favorite.
Against teams with winning records, the Buccaneers went 4-8, but they dominated below .500 teams, going 6-1. At home, they were 4-5 vs. the spread, while on the road, they were 8-2. Their over/under record for the season was 7-12. The Buccaneers’ offense averaged 40.4 points per game last season, which was 24th in the league.
Mike Evans is heading into his 11th season in the league after finishing last year with 1,255 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns for Tampa Bay. Chris Godwin, who is entering his 8th season, played in 17 games and had 1024 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The Buccaneers also have Trey Palmer, who played in 17 games and finished with 385 receiving yards and three touchdowns last season.
Despite finishing 20th in yards allowed, the Buccaneers’ defense was tough to score against last season, giving up just 19.2 points per game, the 5th best figure in the NFL. They excelled in the running game, allowing just 3.8 yards per attempt (4th). Tampa Bay was also tough at home, giving up only 16.2 points per game (4th), while on the road, they allowed 21.9 points per game, which was 8th best in the league.
Although they were 28th in passing yards allowed, the Buccaneers gave up the 7th fewest passing touchdowns. Opposing offenses looked to attack them through the air, as Tampa Bay faced the 6th fewest rushing attempts in the league. Additionally, the Buccaneers had a positive turnover differential, ranking 4th in the league.
Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Commanders are 1-4 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Buccaneers are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Commanders are 6-4 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Buccaneers have gone 8-2 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Commanders’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Buccaneers’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Commanders vs. Buccaneers Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | +157 | +147 | +4 | +3.5 |
| Buccaneers | -192 | -175 | -4 | -3.5 |
4* Free Week 1 NFL Betting Prediction: Washington +3.5
The Bucs are favored, but don’t sleep on the Commanders covering the spread. This is the kind of game where sharp bettors see value, especially with Washington hungry to make a statement on the road. Tampa might squeak out the win, but we’re predicting a close 24-23 finish, making Washington the smart play against the spread.
As for an over/under pick, we like taking the OVER, with the line sitting at 43.5 points. Our projections have these teams finishing with 47 combined points, making the over a good play in this one.
Stay tuned all season long for more free NFL picks—you won’t want to miss a single edge in these matchups!
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Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Paving the way for the next generation 💪 pic.twitter.com/sF5ZhIO80A
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) September 5, 2024
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