Free NFL Week 3 Pick: Commanders vs. Bengals Odds
Looking for Washington Commanders vs. Cincinnati Bengals free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Commanders taking on the Bengals on Monday, September 23rd at the Paycor Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 3 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Washington Cincinnati matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 3
Monday Night Football
(1-1) Washington Commanders vs. Cincinnati Bengals (0-2)
Date: Monday, September 23rd
Time: 8:15 ET
Venue: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati OH
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Washington +7.5 | Cincinnati -7.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Washington +298 | Cincinnati -382
NFL Betting Total: O/U 48.5
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Get ready, because Monday Night Football in Week 3 is about to deliver an absolute thriller! The Washington Commanders are rolling into Paycor Stadium to take on the Cincinnati Bengals, and the betting lines are buzzing. Cincinnati is favored by 7.5, but let me tell you—don’t sleep on the Commanders. This one’s going to be closer than you think.
This matchup brings a national spotlight on Washington’s rookie sensation, Jayden Daniels, the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner and the No. 2 overall pick. This kid is the real deal, and on the big stage, he’s going to show why.
The Commanders and Bengals did not meet up last season, but over their last three head-to-head matchups, each team is 1-1-1. Against the spread the Commanders went 2-1.
The over/under record in these matchups was 2-1 on an average of 50 points per game.
Washington Commanders
The Commanders picked up a 21-18 win over the Giants, moving their record to 1-1 on the season. Washington fell behind early, as the Giants scored a touchdown with just over a minute remaining in the 1st quarter, but a field goal from Austin Seibert put Washington up 3-0. Washington took a 9-6 lead in the 2nd quarter after Jayden Daniels found Zach Ertz for a touchdown and added another field goal before the half to make it 12-9. The Commanders retook the lead in the 3rd quarter with another touchdown from Wan’Dale Robinson, and a late field goal from Seibert sealed the win.
The Commanders were 1.5-point favorites and their straight-up win over the Giants also resulted in a win against the spread. The combined 39 points was just under the over/under line of 43 points. Washington took an 18-12 lead in the 3rd quarter after a field goal from Seibert, and even though the Giants tied the game at 18 in the 4th, Washington managed to pull out the win with a late field goal.
Washington Commanders Stats
The Commanders’ offense picked up 22 first downs in their 21-18 win over the Giants, with Jayden Daniels finishing with 226 yards on 23 completions. Washington ran for 215 yards, averaging 6.1 yards per attempt, with Brian Robinson Jr. leading the way with 133 yards on 17 carries, including a 40-yard run.
Despite not throwing any touchdowns, Daniels had a good game, completing 79% of his passes and rushing for 44 yards. He was sacked five times. Washington’s passing attack finished with 210 yards, and Zach Ertz was their top receiver, with four catches for 62 yards.
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In their 21-18 win over the Giants, Washington’s defense allowed 175 passing yards on 16 completions. The Giants finished with 304 yards of total offense against them. Washington struggled against the run, allowing 129 yards on just 22 attempts, giving up 5.9 yards per attempt. They also allowed two passing touchdowns and allowed the Giants to convert on 50% of their third down attempts.
Washington’s defense only managed one sack in the game and had a tough time in the backfield, losing the tackles for loss battle by a margin of -8.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals were up 26-25 with less than a minute remaining in their most recent game vs. the Chiefs but ended up losing on a last-second field goal. Cincinnati’s record now stands at 0-2 after their 26-25 loss to the Chiefs. Even though they lost, the Bengals did cover the spread, as they were +6.5-point underdogs on the road. The game’s 51 combined points surpassed the O/U line of 47.5 points.
Cincinnati’s Evan McPherson opened the scoring with a field goal in the 1st quarter, and after the Chiefs matched it with a field goal, the score was tied at 3. The Bengals then took a 16-10 lead at halftime, and after the Chiefs took a brief lead in the 3rd quarter, Joe Burrow connected with Andrei Iosivas for a touchdown to put the Bengals back in front. However, a late 4th quarter turnover led to a Kansas City field goal and the Bengals’ defeat.
Cincinnati Bengals Stats
The Bengals’ offense had 18 first downs and 246 yards passing in their 26-25 loss to the Chiefs. Joe Burrow threw for 258 yards, completing 63% of his passes and throwing two touchdowns without any interceptions. However, the Bengals struggled on third down, converting only 30.8% of their chances, and Burrow was sacked three times.
Cincinnati’s running game was limited to 74 yards on 22 attempts. Mike Gesicki led the team with 91 receiving yards, including a 37-yard reception. Zack Moss was the top rusher with 34 yards on 12 attempts.
In the Bengals’ 26-25 loss to the Chiefs, the defense allowed just 137 passing yards but struggled against the run, giving up 149 yards on 32 attempts (4.7 yards per attempt). Despite holding Kansas City to 286 total yards, Cincinnati allowed two passing touchdowns and forced just a 72% completion rate. They also forced two interceptions and limited the Chiefs to a 12.5% conversion rate on third down. The Bengals’ defense recorded two sacks in the game.
Washington Commanders vs. Cincinnati Bengals NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Commanders are 1-4 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Bengals are 2-2-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Commanders are 6-4 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Bengals have gone 4-6 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Commanders’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Bengals’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Commanders vs. Bengals Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | +230 | +297 | +6.5 | +7.5 |
| Bengals | -285 | -380 | -6.5 | -7.5 |
4* Free Week 3 NFL Betting Prediction: Washington +7.5
Jayden Daniels was lights-out last week, completing 23-of-29 passes for 226 yards and tacking on 44 yards rushing. Expect more of the same—and then some—under the bright lights of MNF.
Now, let’s talk betting trends. Washington is sneaky good on the road, going 6-4 ATS in their last ten away games. Meanwhile, Cincinnati hasn’t exactly been a fortress at home, managing just 4-6 ATS over their last ten. And sure, Washington hasn’t won back-to-back games since the start of last season, but here’s the kicker: they’ve won their last two Monday night appearances, and I’m feeling a third is in the cards.
The Commanders have momentum and an exciting young quarterback.
Our model has the Commanders coming out on top by a score of 31-27 in their week three matchup against the Bengals.
For this week’s over/under pick, we are leaning towards taking the over, with a projected combined score of 58 points and the O/U line at 48.5 points.
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Washington Commanders vs. Cincinnati Bengals NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Starting your morning off with some Tee 🫖@teehiggins5 | #RuleTheJungle pic.twitter.com/VcI7WSlxLQ
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) September 20, 2024
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