Free NFL Pick: Jets vs. Bears Odds
Looking for New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears Free NFL predictions? NFL betting sees the Jets taking on the Bears on 10/4 at Soldier Field, in Chicago. This free NFL football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Jets Bears matchup.
2026 NFL Handicapping – New York Jets vs Chicago Bears
(1-2) New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears (2-1)
Date: Oct 04, 2026
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Soldier Field in Chicago, IL
NFL Moneyline Odds: Jets +146 | Bears -173 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NFL Betting Odds: Jets +3 | Bears -3
NFL Football Gambling Total: O/U: 42.5
Here’s why I’m backing a NY ATS bet below in my Jets Bears free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Jets vs. Bears Gameday
Week 4 sends the New York Jets to Soldier Field for a Sunday afternoon matchup with the Chicago Bears. New York comes in at 1-2 under Aaron Glenn, while Ben Johnson’s Bears are 2-1 after an impressive Monday night performance.
The Jets nearly pulled off a wild comeback in Detroit last Sunday. They erased a 24-10 fourth-quarter deficit to tie the game before the Lions answered late for a 31-24 victory.
Chicago had a much happier Week 3.
New York brings the extra rest, while Chicago has a short week and a major QB decision.
The Bears controlled Philadelphia 27-7 on Monday night, getting a remarkably clean performance from Case Keenum. Chicago held the ball for nearly 37 minutes and never turned it over.
There’s also some familiarity between the coaching staffs. Glenn and Johnson worked together in Detroit before landing their current head-coaching jobs, adding another layer to a matchup that already has plenty going on.
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New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears Odds & Last 5
The opening odds have Chicago favored at home, with the Bears -173 on the moneyline and New York +145. Chicago is laying 3.5 points, while the total is 43.
New York opened its season with a 23-10 win at Tennessee before dropping consecutive games to Green Bay and Detroit. The Jets have been competitive in both defeats, losing those games by three and seven points.
Chicago’s first three games have been considerably less predictable.
The Bears opened with a 59-37 win over Carolina, scored only three points in a loss to Minnesota and then bounced back by holding Philadelphia to seven. That’s three very different football games in three weeks.
The recent head-to-head history is limited. New York won the last meeting 31-10 in 2022, while Chicago had taken the previous five meetings in the series.
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Bears Stats From Last Week
Chicago’s offense has averaged 29.7 points and 408 yards through three games, with the running game producing 184.3 yards per contest.
D’Andre Swift carried 20 times for 84 yards against Philadelphia, while Kyle Monangai added 31 on 10 attempts. That helped the Bears run the ball 35 times and control possession for 36:53.
The bigger Week 3 story was Case Keenum.
Starting with Caleb Williams sidelined by a hamstring injury, Keenum completed 24 of 34 passes for 247 yards and 2 TD’s. He added a rushing TD, wasn’t sacked and didn’t turn the ball over in his first regular-season start since 2023.
Chicago’s defense did its share of the work.
The Bears forced three turnovers, held Philadelphia to 248 total yards and kept Jalen Hurts to 153 passing yards. The Eagles managed only seven points after entering the night undefeated.
Chicago also opened cornerback Kyler Gordon’s 21-day practice window this week as he works his way back from the PUP list.
Jets Stats From Last Week
New York’s offense came alive after halftime in Detroit, finishing with 335 total yards.
Geno Smith completed 31 of 37 passes for 321 yards and 3 TD’s. Garrett Wilson caught 10 passes for 107 yards and a TD, while rookie TE Kenyon Sadiq added 105 yards and a score on seven receptions.
The Jets didn’t get nearly as much from the running game. Breece Hall finished with 32 yards on 13 carries before leaving with a quad injury, and New York totaled only 58 rushing yards.
Hall did not practice Wednesday.
Adonai Mitchell, Dylan Parham, Mason Taylor and Kiko Mauigoa also sat out Wednesday’s practice. Minkah Fitzpatrick was limited with a groin injury, although Glenn said there’s a really good chance the safety returns Sunday after missing most of the first three games.
The Jets defense allowed 381 yards in Detroit but gave the offense a chance late. New York forced a fourth-down stop in the final quarter before the Lions eventually produced the winning TD with 2:25 remaining.
Jets vs. Bears QB Matchup
Geno Smith gives New York some stability entering Sunday.
Smith has thrown for 783 yards with 4 TD’s and no interceptions through three games. His accuracy and ability to push the ball downfield give the Jets a clear foundation at the position.
His final possession in Detroit wasn’t nearly as pretty.
Smith was sacked and lost a fumble with 51 seconds remaining, ending New York’s last chance to answer Detroit’s go-ahead TD. That puts pass protection and late-game execution squarely in focus against a Chicago defense coming off three takeaways.
Chicago’s side is much less settled.
Caleb Williams remains sidelined by the hamstring injury he suffered against Minnesota and did not participate in Wednesday’s walkthrough. Tyson Bagent has cleared concussion protocol, while Case Keenum remains in the mix after starting Monday night.
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Johnson said Wednesday that the Bears have decided on a direction at QB, but he wasn’t ready to announce the starter publicly.
Keenum gives Chicago an experienced option, Bagent offers more mobility, while Williams remains the regular starter when healthy.
For New York, the equation is considerably simpler. Smith has to protect the football late and give his playmakers opportunities against a Chicago defense that made life miserable for Philadelphia.
New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears bottom line: New York has the more settled QB situation, while Chicago’s ability to get efficient play from whoever starts will help decide whether the Bears can create separation.
New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears Football Betting Trends
- The Jets have gone 6-3 (66.7%) on the over in their last 9 regular season games as underdogs.
- In games with totals of 42 or less, New York has a 5-2 (71.4%) record on the over in their last 7 regular season contests.
- Plus, the Bears have a strong 7-2 (77.8%) straight-up record as favorites in their last 9 regular season games.
- Chicago is 6-2 (75.0%) straight-up in their last 8 home games during the regular season.
- Additionally, the Bears have covered the spread 6 times in their last 9 games as favorites, with a 66.7% success rate.
- In their last 11 regular season games, Chicago has covered the spread 7 times, achieving a 63.6% rate.
Jets Bears Free Pick: Jets +3.5
Here is my Jets Bears free pick: I’m taking Jets +3.5. New York showed some real fight in Detroit, and getting more than a FG matters in a matchup where Chicago’s QB situation remains unsettled.
Geno Smith gives New York a legitimate passing edge after throwing for over 300 and a few TD’s against Detroit. Chicago’s defense was terrific Monday night, but the Bears are working on a short week after a physical game against Philadelphia, while the Jets have the extra day to prepare.
Getting more than a FG becomes attractive when the favorite still hasn’t publicly named its starting QB.
Chicago can lean on its running game and defense, but New York has enough through the air to keep pressure on the Bears for four quarters.
At this number, my NFL betting system puts more value on the points than asking Chicago to create margin, so I’m taking Jets +3.5.
Today’s NFL Free Pick
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Chicago Bears on X
And counting… pic.twitter.com/EWvWQgx1jy
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) September 30, 2026
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