Free NFL Pick: Colts vs. Commanders Odds
Looking for Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders Free NFL predictions? NFL betting sees the Colts taking on the Commanders on 10/4 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, in London, England. This free NFL football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Colts Commanders matchup.
2026 NFL Handicapping – Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders
(1-2) Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders (1-2)
Date: Oct 04, 2026
Time: 9:30 AM ET
Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, UK
NFL Moneyline Odds: Colts -193 | Commanders +162 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NFL Betting Odds: Colts -3.5 | Commanders +3.5
NFL Football Gambling Total: O/U: 47
Here’s why I’m backing an Indianapolis ATS bet below in my Colts Commanders free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Colts vs. Commanders Gameday
The Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders head across the Atlantic for a Week 4 matchup with both teams sitting at 1-2. Shane Steichen’s Colts finally broke through with a win last week, while Dan Quinn’s Commanders also arrive in London after earning their first victory of the season.
Kickoff is scheduled for 9:30 AM ET Sunday at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, with NFL Network carrying the game.
Indianapolis is the designated road team, so this technically counts as another game away from Lucas Oil Stadium for the Colts. Indianapolis opened with a 41-23 loss to Baltimore before taking Kansas City to overtime in a 33-30 defeat. The Colts then edged Houston 19-17, finally getting rewarded after a difficult first two weeks.
Nothing says Sunday morning football quite like two 1-2 teams flying across an ocean to sort things out.
Washington followed a 24-22 loss to Philadelphia with a 37-20 defeat against Dallas. The Commanders answered by beating Seattle 33-31, giving them some momentum before the trip to London.
The last meeting came in 2022, when Washington escaped Indianapolis with a 17-16 victory.
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Week 4 gives us Colts vs. Commanders from London, with two teams trying to turn one victory into the beginning of something useful.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders Odds & Last 5
The opening odds have Indianapolis favored at -193 on the moneyline, with Washington returning +160. The Colts are laying 3.5 points, while the Commanders are getting +3.5 and the total sits at 47.5.
Indianapolis has already played three very different games. Baltimore controlled the opener 41-23, Kansas City needed overtime to win 33-30, and the Colts finally closed one out with their 19-17 victory over Houston. That win wasn’t flashy, but 1-2 looks considerably better than 0-3 before boarding a flight to London.
Washington has lived in close games twice.
The Commanders lost 24-22 to Philadelphia, got handled 37-20 by Dallas and then survived Seattle 33-31 for their first victory. Both offenses have shown they can put points on the board, but neither defense has provided much consistency.
That makes the 3.5 points especially important if this turns into another one-possession game.
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Commanders Stats
Washington has scored 75 points through three games, but the defense has given up 92. The Commanders have allowed at least 24 points every week, including 31 against Seattle in their first victory.
Marcus Mariota has provided efficient work when called upon, throwing for 294 yards and four TD’s without an interception. Terry McLaurin leads the receiving corps with 141 yards, while Rachaad White has rushed for 100 yards. The run defense has been Washington’s strongest area, allowing only 82 rushing yards per game.
That’s important against a Colts offense with Jonathan Taylor in the backfield.
Washington has five sacks and two interceptions through three games, so the defense hasn’t generated enough disruptive plays to erase all the yardage and points it has surrendered.
Health at QB is another major storyline. Jayden Daniels has been dealing with a left elbow injury, putting more attention on Mariota as Washington prepares for Indianapolis.
Colts Stats
Indianapolis has scored 72 points through three games, including 30 at Kansas City. Jones has thrown for 611 yards with three TD’s and three interceptions as he continues his return from last season’s Achilles injury.
The bigger concern has been the defense.
Indianapolis has allowed 91 points and 1,252 total yards through three games. The Colts have generated seven sacks, but opponents have still found far too much room between those negative plays. That puts extra pressure on the offense to avoid turnovers and empty possessions.
Jones doesn’t need to be spectacular in London, but giving Washington short fields would invite exactly the kind of game Indianapolis wants to avoid.
The Colts also have Taylor to keep the offense balanced, while Josh Downs has 186 receiving yards through three games. If Indianapolis can keep Washington from loading up against the run, Jones should have opportunities to work underneath and keep drives alive.
Colts vs. Commanders QB Matchup
Jones has thrown for 611 yards, three TD’s and three interceptions through three starts. He’s shown he can move this offense, but the turnovers remain the part of the equation Indianapolis would love to clean up.
Washington’s defense presents an opportunity.
The Commanders have surrendered 92 points and haven’t consistently created enough pressure to compensate for the yardage they’re allowing. Mariota has thrown for 294 yards and four TD’s without an interception in his two appearances. That efficiency matters because Washington doesn’t need him forcing throws if the running game and defense can keep the score manageable.
The matchup changes if Daniels is available, but Washington still has to protect whichever QB is behind center. Indianapolis has seven sacks through three games and needs its front to create more of those negative plays without exposing an already vulnerable defense.
Jones has the better supporting structure for this particular matchup.
Taylor forces Washington to respect the run, while Downs gives Indianapolis a reliable option when the Colts need to stay on schedule.
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There should be opportunities for both QB’s in London.
The one who avoids the costly mistake probably gives his team the clearest path to getting back to .500.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders bottom line: Indianapolis brings the more balanced offensive setup to London, but Washington’s ability to stop the run and protect the football gives the Commanders enough resistance to make the Colts earn every bit of their favorite status.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders Football Betting Trends
- The Colts have performed well against the spread in away games, going 3-0 in their last three regular season games.
- Additionally, Indianapolis has seen the total go over in 75% of their last four regular season games.
- The Commanders have an impressive streak with the total going over in all seven of their last regular season games.
- Also, Washington has covered the spread in four of their last five regular season games as underdogs.
- Washington has also seen the total go over in each of their last six regular season home games.
- Indianapolis has a strong record of 3-1 against the spread after a loss in their last four regular season games.
Colts Commanders Free Pick: Colts -3.5
Here is my Colts Commanders free pick: I’m backing Colts -3.5.
Indianapolis finally got into the win column against Houston, and I like the matchup for the Colts to carry some of that momentum across the pond. Washington has surrendered 92 points through three games, so this isn’t a defense I’m afraid to attack with Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor.
The Commanders have been much better against the run, which puts more responsibility on Jones. He’s thrown three interceptions already, but Washington hasn’t consistently turned defensive pressure into stops.
London can create some weird football, but Washington’s defensive issues aren’t disappearing at customs.
This also lands in a spot I like through my NFL betting system. The Colts have covered their last three regular-season games away from home, and their ability to respond after setbacks gives me another situational angle behind the favorite.
Washington can score enough to hang around, especially if Mariota continues protecting the football. Still, I’m willing to lay the number with the more balanced offense.
Give me Colts -3.5.
Today’s NFL Free Pick
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Washington Commanders on X
Locked in for London pic.twitter.com/KhtsekDe47
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) October 1, 2026
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