
Free NFL Week 6 Pick: Buccaneers vs. Saints Odds
Looking for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Buccaneers taking on the Saints on Sunday, October 13th at the Caesars Superdome. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 6 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Tampa Bay New Orleans matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 6
(3-2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints (2-3)
Date: Sunday, October 13th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans LA
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Tampa Bay -2 | New Orleans +2
NFL Moneyline Odds: Tampa Bay -133 | New Orleans +111
NFL Betting Total: O/U 42.5
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The Buccaneers and Saints faced off twice last season, with each team picking up a win. The Bucs won the first game 26-9 on the road, and the Saints took the second game 23-13 when they were on the road. The Saints were slight underdogs in their win, while the Bucs were favored by -2.5 in their loss. The over/under line for game one was 40.5 points, and the teams combined for 35 points. For the second game, the line was 42.5 points, and the combined score was 36 points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Heading into week 6, the Buccaneers have a 3-2 record, placing them 2nd in the NFC South. After bouncing back from a week 3 loss to the Broncos with a win over the Eagles in week 4, Tampa Bay couldn’t keep the momentum going, falling 36-30 to the Falcons in week 5. The Bucs were 2.5-point underdogs in that game but couldn’t cover the spread, and the 66 combined points easily went over the 43.5-point line.
Our projections give the Bucs a 48.7% chance of making the playoffs and a 30.6% chance of winning the division. They rank 15th in our NFL power rankings. Tampa Bay has a +2.6 scoring margin this season and is 3-2 against the spread. Their O/U record is also 3-2, with the over hitting in each of their last two games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Stats
In our offensive power rankings, the Buccaneers are currently 6th in the NFL, and they are 8th in points per game, averaging 25.4. They have been strong in the first quarter, ranking 6th with an average of 7.2 points. Tampa Bay ranks 17th in passing attempts and 15th in passing yards per game, with 213. On the ground, they are 20th in both rushing attempts and rushing yards per game, averaging 108.8. The Bucs are 7th in the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage, but they are 24th in red zone conversion percentage, despite ranking 4th in red zone attempts.
In week 5 against the Falcons, Baker Mayfield posted a passer rating of 137, throwing for 180 yards and 3 touchdowns on 19/24 passing. Chris Godwin led the team with 5 catches for 64 yards, and Rachaad White had 72 rushing yards on 10 carries. Tampa Bay scored 30 points in the loss, with 24 of them coming in the first half. They converted 6 of 11 3rd-down attempts and went 2/3 in the red zone.
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In their most recent game, the Buccaneers’ defense gave up 477 passing yards to the Falcons, including 42 completions and four touchdowns through the air. Despite forcing one interception and recording four sacks, Tampa Bay allowed Atlanta to convert 42.9% of their third down attempts. The Buccaneers lost the game 36-30 in overtime, with the Falcons putting up a total of 550 yards on offense. Tampa Bay defended the run well, allowing just 73 yards on 18 attempts.
New Orleans Saints
After starting the season with two straight wins, the Saints have now dropped three in a row, including a 26-13 loss to the Chiefs in week 5. This puts New Orleans at 2-3, leaving them 3rd in the NFC South. Our projections give the Saints a 40.4% chance of making the playoffs and a 24.6% chance of winning the division. Despite their losing streak, they rank 10th in our NFL power rankings.
New Orleans has a +8.8 scoring margin and is 3-2 against the spread this season. Their O/U record is also 3-2, with their games averaging 47.2 points compared to an average line of 44.6.
New Orleans Saints Stats
Heading into week 6, the Saints are 7th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 4th in the NFL in points per game (28) and are 3rd in 1st-quarter scoring. New Orleans has been strong on 3rd down, converting 50.9% of their attempts, which ranks 2nd in the league. Despite being 5th in red zone attempts, they are 26th in conversion percentage, with just 11.8%.
Derek Carr threw for 165 yards (18/28) and 2 touchdowns in week 5 against the Chiefs. Alvin Kamara had 26 rushing yards on 11 carries, while Rashid Shaheed led the team with 86 receiving yards on 4 catches, including a touchdown.
In their 26-13 loss to the Chiefs, the Saints’ defense allowed 321 passing yards and 139 yards on the ground. The Chiefs finished with 460 total yards and averaged 8.2 yards per attempt. New Orleans’ defense forced one interception and recorded two sacks, but they struggled on third downs, allowing the Chiefs to convert 42.9% of their third down attempts.
The Saints allowed Kansas City to complete 71.8% of their passes and held them to zero passing touchdowns. New Orleans also won the tackles for loss battle, finishing with one more tackle for loss than the Chiefs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Buccaneers are 2-3 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Saints are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Buccaneers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Saints have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Buccaneers’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Saints’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Buccaneers vs. Saints Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | +102 | -138 | +1.5 | -2 |
| Saints | -122 | +115 | -1.5 | +2 |
4* Free Week 6 NFL Betting Prediction: New Orleans +2
For this week six matchup between the Buccaneers and Saints, we have the Saints pulling off the upset by a score of 20-17. Despite the Buccaneers being the slight favorites at -2, we like the Saints to not only win but cover the spread as home underdogs.
As for an over/under pick, with the line sitting at 42.5 points, we are leaning towards taking the under, with a projected combined score of 35 points.
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