Free NFL Week 4 Pick: Buccaneers vs. Saints Odds
Looking for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints free NFL Week 4 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Buccaneers taking on the Saints on Sunday, October 1st at the Caesars Superdome. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 4 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Tampa Bay New Orleans matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 4
(2-1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints (2-1)
Date: Sunday, October 1st
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Caesars Superdome
NFL Week 4 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Tampa Bay +3 | New Orleans -3
Week 4 NFL Moneyline Odds: Tampa Bay +127 | New Orleans -154
NFL Betting Total: O/U 39.5
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This week, get ready for an exciting NFC South showdown in New Orleans, Louisiana. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1, 2-1 ATS) will face off against the New Orleans Saints (2-1, 0-2-1 ATS) at Caesars Superdome on Sunday at 1 pm ET, and the game will be broadcast on FOX.
In NFL Week 4, the Saints are the favorites by 3 points over the Buccaneers. The moneyline favors New Orleans at -160, while Tampa Bay stands at +135. The point total, set at 40.5, adds another layer of anticipation.
This game is my favorite matchup in the competitive NFC South, and in 2023 I still think both teams are poised to contend for the division title. In the history of these two clubs, the Saints hold a 39-24 regular season advantage over the Buccaneers, and there have been 34 games decided by a margin of seven points or less.
Last season, the Buccaneers and Saints met up two times, with the Buccaneers going 2-0. The Buccaneers and Saints split their games vs. the spread last season. Together they combined to average 31.5 points per contest and finished with an over/under mark of 0-2.
On offense, the two teams finished with similar production in yardage, with the Buccaneers averaging 305 yards per game compared to the Saints at 303.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This week will be the Buccaneers’ 2nd road game of the season. So far, they have put together a record of 1-0 on the road and 1-1 at home. Their overall mark of 2-1 has them sitting 3rd in the NFC-South.
Taking a look at the Buccaneers’ scoring margin this season season, it is currently at -0.3. This has resulted in an ATS record of 2-1.
Tampa Bay got off to slow start in their loss to the Eagles, failing to score at all in the first-quarter. Overall, the Buccaneers finished with 174 of offense while giving up 472 on defense.
Tampa Bay’s 14 point loss also resulted in a loss vs. the spread as 5.5 point underdogs. Baker Mayfield threw for 146 yards while completing 60% of his passes and throwing for 146. Mayfield threw for one touchdown.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Stats
On offense, the Buccaneers finished with 174 yards against the Eagles. On third-down situations, the Buccaneers had 50% conversion rate. Notably, Rachaad White led the rushing attack with 38 yards, while Baker Mayfield passed for 146 yards.
With an average of 19.3 points per contest, the Tampa Bay offense currently ranks 15th in the league.
The Buccaneers defense comes into the game with rankings of 9th in tackles for loss and 5th in sacks.
Their opponents have been scoring 19.7 points per game and gaining 359.0 yards (per game).
New Orleans Saints
Thus far, the Saints have a 0-2-1 record against the spread. It’s worth noting that they have been favored in each of their games.
In the Saints’ loss to the Packers, they finished with 252 yards of offense and only 15 first downs. The Packers’ offense threw for 245 against the Saints’ secondary and ran for 95 yards. New Orleans also lost the game vs. the spread as they were 1.5 point favorites.
Derek Carr threw for 103 yards while completing 72% of his passes and throwing for 103. Carr threw for one touchdown.
New Orleans Saints Stats
New Orleans’ offense finished with 252 yards of total offense vs. the Packers. On third down, the Saints converted at a rate of 28.6%. Kendre Miller was the Saints’ top rusher with 34 yards while Derek Carr threw for 103 yards.
Offensively, the Saints have an average of 17.7 points per game, which is 20th in the NFL.
In terms of turnovers, the New Orleans defense has five takeaways, which is 5th in the NFL. Overall, they are giving up 16.7 points per game and 288.0 yards.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Buccaneers are 1-4 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Saints are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Buccaneers are 3-7 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Saints have gone 3-6-1 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Buccaneers’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Saints’ have an over/under record of 0-3 in their last 3 games at home.
Buccaneers vs. Saints Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | +158 | +129 | +3.5 | +3 |
| Saints | -188 | -153 | -3.5 | -3 |
4* Free Week 4 NFL Betting Prediction: New Orleans -3
I’m taking New Orleans at -3 in this one. The team’s defense is coming off a good performance and should put together another good performance this week.
We still need to hear the injury report on Derek Carr, but he’s likely out with an AC joint injury. Having said that, I still trust Jameis Winston.
Kamara’s official reinstatement on Monday has brought anticipation to this week’s game. With the Saints looking to shake things up behind a struggling offensive line, Sunday’s matchup against the Buccaneers is critical.
The Saints have been averaging only 93 rushing yards per game in Kamara’s absence, highlighting the need to quickly get him involved. Watch for Winston to target Kamara early and often, considering his impressive 430 career catches, and expect increased involvement in the passing game.
Alongside fellow running backs Jones and Miller, all eyes are on the Saints backfield in week 4 as they vie for touches.
Given the current offensive struggles of the Buccaneers I’m just not sure they can keep up!
I see New Orleans not only picking up the win but covering the spread vs. Tampa Bay.
After crunching the numbers, our model is pointing to this game finishing with a combined 54 points. This projection has me feeling good about taking the over at 39.5.
FACT: In 22′ the Bucs swept the season series against the Saints, so TB may think they have a leg up in this one coming into Week 4. I’m not betting on it!
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
https://twitter.com/Saints/status/1706703930821087443
Kamara back soon!
https://twitter.com/Saints/status/1706768101440626815
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