Free Week 4 Prediction: Buccaneers vs. Chiefs NFL Odds
Looking for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Free NFL Week 4 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Buccaneers taking on the Chiefs on Sunday, October 2nd, 2022 at Raymond James Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 4 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Tampa Bay – Kansas City matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (2-1)
Date: Sunday, October 2nd, 2022
Time: 8:20 PM EST
Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
NFL Week 4 ATS Betting Lines: Buccaneers +2.5 (-110) | Chiefs -2.5 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 4 Moneyline Odds: Buccaneers +111 | Chiefs -134
NFL Week 4 NFL Betting Total: O/U 45.0
- *Click Here* Check out our Live Betting Odds for this game!
- *Click Here* Check out our Updated Sportsbook Bonuses for today!
Tampa is coming off of their first loss of the season and may not be able to play at home this week with Hurricane Ian bearing down on the peninsula. Kansas City will look to rebound after a close loss in Indy.
An early season battle of postseason hopefuls is usually a primetime spot and schedulers did not disappoint. Although, they most likely did not plan on this game taking place in a neutral stadium.
If, in fact they do have to move the location, we could see some line movement. Tampa Bay losing homefield most likely favors said line movement in the direction of KC. Keep this in mind when choosing a side.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Most of the information and oral history coming into last week’s tilt with the Packers told us that traditionally, both QB’s struggle in this matchup. It certainly bore out (no pun intended) as the Bucs lost 14-12 in a game where Aaron Rodgers claimed the scoreboard gave him game-ending information.
Brady hasn’t necessarily looked himself this season, which shouldn’t be surprising considering the signal caller is in his age-45 season. The Bucs asked Brady to throw 42 times, likely due to their lack of ability to run the ball. Fournette carried 12 times for 35 yards, which is alarming considering Football Outsiders ranks Green Bay as the 32nd rush defense by DVOA.
If we could give the Bucs a break on offense, it’d be that they were without most of their offensive weapons. Mike Evans was serving his one game suspension, Godwin was sidelined with a hamstring issue and Julio was nursing a knee injury. Week 4 should see the return of Jones and Evans.
The defense is currently leading the NFL in points allowed per defensive drive. Although, Mahomes is typically comfortable against the pass rush. The way to get to Mahomes is a dime heavy, cover 3 and hopefully generating a rush with a standard front. Tampa has done a good job this season limiting explosive plays, which is evidenced by their third best mark in Air Yards per attempt allowed.
Kansas City Chiefs
It was a curious decision on March 23rd when the Chiefs shipped Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins and it remains a curious one now. In trading Hill, they sacrificed one of the most explosive playmakers, probably ever. He has since continued a torrid pace in Miami.
In the absence of Hill, Mahomes has had to rely on a bevy of young and mostly unproven receivers. Kelce remains a reliable mainstay, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore and Mecole Hardman haven’t provided much. Yet, KC ranks 2nd in dropback EPA/play this season.
KC has struggled to run the ball once again; Football Outsiders has the Chiefs at 27th in rushing offense by DVOA. Tampa Bay should entirely neutralize a Chiefs rushing attack that is just 28th in rushing success rate.
Defensively the Chiefs have been difficult to deal with in their own right. Tampa is no rushing threat, so KC can happily focus on their pass defense which has been average in success rate (16th). I mentioned that Brady is starting to show age, and it bears out in advanced data which tells us he’s 19th in EPA/play.
NFL Betting Trends:
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 6 games on the road
- Kansas City is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games
- Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
- Tampa Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
4* Free Week 4 NFL Betting Prediction: Bucs +2.5
Though I’ve harangued Brady throughout this piece, ESPN’s Mike Reiss noted last year that Brady is one of the best QB’s coming off a loss, with a record of 50-14. Though the number has certainly changed since then, the trend is still overwhelming.
You could look at a ML here for the plus value on the juice, but without a running game to help out, I’ll stick with the points. I may even wait to put this in, considering a site change could lead to Tampa catching more points.
Kansas City struggled last week in Indy against a far lesser defense. Once the Chiefs figure out their go-to options outside of Kelce, I’ll be more likely to side with them but for now they haven’t given me enough confidence to be laying points on the road to Tom Brady.
If you’re looking for more NFL picks like this Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs matchup we’ll be providing 4* free NFL predictions on the blog all season long, and check out our Experts for guaranteed premium & free NFL Football Picks!
Register here for a FREE NFL Football Betting Account Now for Daily Free Picks & More Special Offers!