Free NFL Week 16 Pick: Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Odds
Looking for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Buccaneers taking on the Cowboys on Sunday, December 22nd at the AT&T Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 16 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Tampa Bay Dallas Sunday Night Football matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 16
Sunday Night Football on NBC
(8-6) Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys (6-8)
Date: Sunday, December 22nd
Time: 8:20 ET
Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington TX
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Tampa Bay -4 | Dallas +4
NFL Moneyline Odds: Tampa Bay -207 | Dallas +172
NFL Betting Total: O/U 49.5
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Week 16’s Sunday Night Football clash between the Buccaneers and Cowboys promises fireworks, with a rich history fueling the drama.
Dallas holds a commanding 16-6 all-time lead in the series, including postseason play, and their most recent meeting saw the Cowboys dominate Tampa Bay 31-14 in the 2023 NFC Wild Card round, famously closing the curtain on Tom Brady’s Buccaneers tenure.
The last three times playing each other, the Buccaneers have a winning 2-1 record.
However, against the spread the Cowboys went 2-1. The over/under record in these matchups was 1-2 on an average of 42 points per game.
Now, both teams are fighting for playoff relevance, making this matchup a critical showdown at AT&T Stadium.
The betting lines favor Tampa Bay at -4, but Dallas has shown they can hang tough, going 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against NFC South opponents.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With four straight wins, the Buccaneers now sit at 8-6, putting them in first place in the NFC South. After a week 10 loss to the 49ers, Tampa Bay has bounced back with victories over the Giants, Panthers, Raiders, and Chargers. Their latest win came on the road against Los Angeles, where they cruised to a 40-17 win as 3-point underdogs. This result pushed their road record to 5-2 this season.
Our projections give the Bucs a 79.7% chance of winning the division and an 81.8% chance of making the playoffs. Heading into week 16, they rank 8th in our NFL power rankings. Tampa Bay has a +5.5 scoring margin and is 9-5 against the spread. Their O/U record is also 9-5, with their games averaging 52.1 points per game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Stats
Heading into week 16, the Buccaneers are 3rd in the NFL in passing yards per game (244) and 13th in passing attempts. Baker Mayfield is coming off a strong week 15 performance, throwing for 288 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Chargers, with a passer rating of 135. He connected with Mike Evans 9 times for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns.
On the ground, Tampa Bay is 4th in the league, averaging 144.4 rushing yards per game. Bucky Irving led the way in week 15 with 117 yards on 15 carries. The Bucs have also been strong on 3rd downs, converting 48.3% of their attempts, which ranks 3rd in the NFL.
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In their most recent game, the Buccaneers’ defense gave up 174 passing yards to the Chargers, with 2 touchdowns and forced one interception. They held the Chargers to 32 rushing yards on just 11 attempts. Despite allowing 2 passing touchdowns, the Buccaneers’ defense was strong overall, as they didn’t allow the Chargers to convert a single third down and came away with a 40-17 win.
Tampa Bay’s defense also recorded three sacks and held the Chargers to a 64.7% completion percentage. The Buccaneers won the quarterback hit differential by +8 but did lose the tackles for loss differential by -2.
Dallas Cowboys
Heading into week 16, the Cowboys are 6-8, putting them 3rd in the NFC East. They have a 3-1 division record and are 4-5 in the conference. Our power rankings have Dallas 29th, and they have just a 0.1% chance of making the playoffs. The Cowboys are 5-2 on the road but only 1-6 at home.
Dallas is 5-9 against the spread, with a -5.9 scoring margin. They are 1-2 ATS as favorites and 4-7 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 9-5, with their games averaging 48.4 points compared to an average line of 45.6.
Dallas Cowboys Stats
Cooper Rush has been solid for the Cowboys over his last three games, culminating in a 214-yard, 3-touchdown performance in week 15 against the Panthers, where he posted a passer rating of 119. Before that, he threw for 183 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 14 and had a 195-yard outing in week 13. Rico Dowdle has been a workhorse in the backfield, rushing for 149 yards on 25 carries in week 15. CeeDee Lamb led the receiving corps with 9 catches for 116 yards in week 15.
Dallas ranks 25th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 16. They are 16th in the NFL in both points per game (21.3) and yards per game (328.9). The Cowboys are 2nd in passing attempts per game but rank 12th in passing yards. On the ground, they are 22nd in rushing attempts and 25th in rushing yards per game.
In their 30-14 win over the Panthers, the Cowboys’ defense allowed just 175 passing yards and forced two interceptions. They defended the run well, giving up only 60 yards on 16 attempts. Dallas recorded six sacks and held Carolina to a 27.3% conversion rate on third down. The Cowboys’ defense also limited the Panthers to 235 total yards.
Dallas’ pass rush was effective, winning the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials in this game. The Panthers did find the end zone through the air, but the Cowboys defended the pass efficiently, allowing just 19 completions and keeping Carolina to 6.2 yards per attempt.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Buccaneers are 3-2 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Cowboys are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Buccaneers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Cowboys have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Buccaneers’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Cowboys’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | +164 | -207 | +4 | -4 |
| Cowboys | -198 | +172 | -4 | +4 |
4* Free Week 16 NFL Betting Prediction: Dallas +4
The Buccaneers are just 3-8 straight up in their last 11 against the Cowboys, a trend that doesn’t inspire confidence.
On the flip side, the Cowboys have been inconsistent at home, splitting their last 10 games 5-5. Still, they’re coming off a morale-boosting win over Carolina, which could give them momentum in this high-stakes battle.
For this week 16 matchup between the Buccaneers and Cowboys, we are going with the Cowboys to cover as home underdogs. The current line has the Cowboys as 4-point underdogs, and our projected final score is 23-21 in favor of the Buccaneers.
As for an over/under pick, we like the under with a projected combined score of 44, which is below the O/U line of 49.5.
Expect a mix of aggressive offenses and key defensive moments. This primetime matchup is set to deliver all the drama and intensity NFL fans and bettors live for as the playoff picture sharpens.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Watch @CowboysBreak Presented by LG OLED evo LIVE as they bring you the latest #DallasCowboys news and more! https://t.co/dPD9RHPI7z
— Cowboys Break (@CowboysBreak) December 19, 2024
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