Free NFL Week 5 Pick: Buccaneers vs. Falcons Odds
Looking for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Buccaneers taking on the Falcons on Thursday, October 3rd at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 5 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Tampa Bay Atlanta Thursday Night Football matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 5
Thursday Night Football on Amazon Prime
(3-1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons (2-2)
Date: Thursday, October 3rd
Time: 8:15 ET
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta GA
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Tampa Bay +1.5 | Atlanta -1.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Tampa Bay +104 | Atlanta -124
NFL Betting Total: O/U 43.5
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Buckle up for NFL Week 5, folks! Thursday Night Football is bringing the heat with a classic NFC South rivalry: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. the Atlanta Falcons. These teams have clashed 61 times, and it’s been a nail-biter of a series.
Tampa holds a slight edge with 31 wins, but Atlanta’s taken 2 of the last 3, making this a matchup packed with revenge potential. With the Bucs sitting at 3-1 and the Falcons at 2-2, this showdown has serious implications.
Each team picked up a road win in the two-game series between the Buccaneers and Falcons last year. The Falcons won the first game 16-13, while the Buccaneers took the second game 29-25.
The Falcons were slight road underdogs in their win, and the Buccaneers were +1.5 point underdogs in their win.
The over/under line for game two was 41.5 points, and the teams combined for 54 points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After a 33-16 win over the Eagles, the Buccaneers are now 3-1 on the season. Tampa Bay jumped out to a 14-0 lead after the 1st quarter and extended it to 24-7 by halftime. Despite the Eagles scoring in the 3rd quarter, the Buccaneers were still leading 30-16 heading into the 4th quarter. Tampa Bay’s win came despite going into the game as +1 point underdogs.
The combined 49 points exceeded the over/under line of 42 points. The Buccaneers’ only touchdown in the 2nd quarter was a 21-yard field goal from Chase McLaughlin. Even though the Eagles and Baker Mayfield found the endzone three times in the 1st quarter, Tampa Bay’s defense tightened up and didn’t allow any more touchdowns until the 3rd quarter when the Eagles added another touchdown.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Stats
Despite being sacked twice, Baker Mayfield had a good game for the Buccaneers, throwing for 334 yards and completing 63% of his passes in their 33-16 win over the Eagles. Tampa Bay’s offense had 29 first downs and 111 rushing yards on 25 attempts. Mayfield threw two touchdowns and finished with a passer rating of 100.
Bucky Irving was the leading rusher, gaining 49 yards on 10 carries, including a touchdown and a 15-yard run. Mike Evans caught eight passes for 94 yards and also had one touchdown. The Buccaneers were efficient on third down, converting 46.2% of their chances.
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In their most recent game, the Buccaneers’ defense allowed just 114 passing yards to the Eagles. They also recorded six sacks and held Philadelphia to 60% passing completions. Despite giving up 113 rushing yards on 20 attempts, Tampa Bay came out on top with a 33-16 win. Additionally, the Eagles converted 46.2% of their third down attempts.
The Buccaneers’ pass rush was effective, as they won the QB hit differential and the tackles for loss differential. Tampa Bay’s secondary gave up just one touchdown and limited the Eagles to 227 total yards in the game.
Atlanta Falcons
Despite being 2-2 straight up, the Falcons are 3-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 26-24 win over the Saints in a game that was tied 7-7 after the 1st quarter. Atlanta took a 17-14 lead into halftime, and after a back and forth 2nd half, Younghoe Koo nailed a 58-yard field goal with 7 seconds left to give the Falcons the win. The Falcons were 2.5-point favorites at home, and with the 2-point win, they did not cover the spread.
There was a lot of scoring in the 4th quarter, as the Falcons and Saints combined for 16 points. The over/under line for the game was 42.5 points, and the teams easily surpassed that with a combined 50 points. This was a big win for the Falcons, as they now sit at 2-2 on the season.
Atlanta Falcons Stats
Atlanta’s offense managed just 14 first downs in their 26-24 win over the Saints. They struggled to run the ball, finishing with only 88 yards on 15 attempts. Kirk Cousins, who threw for 238 yards, led the Falcons in passing. He completed 21 of 35 passes and was unable to throw for a touchdown, ending with a passer rating of 68.
Drake London was the leading receiver with 64 yards on six catches. The Falcons’ offense as a whole put up 227 yards through the air, with one interception and a 60% completion rate. They also went 4-11 on third down and allowed one sack.
Despite allowing the Saints to convert on 53.8% of their third downs, the Falcons’ defense played well in their most recent game, helping them to a 26-24 win over the Saints. Atlanta gave up 366 total yards, with 131 coming on the ground and 235 through the air. They forced one interception and limited New Orleans to 4.0 yards per rushing attempt.
Atlanta’s defense held the Saints to 28 completions on 36 attempts and didn’t allow a passing touchdown. New Orleans did have a high completion percentage of 77.8%.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Buccaneers are 4-1 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Buccaneers are 8-2 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Falcons have gone 3-7 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Buccaneers’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Falcons’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | +130 | +104 | +3 | +1.5 |
| Falcons | -155 | -125 | -3 | -1.5 |
4* Free Week 5 NFL Betting Prediction: Atlanta -1.5
Here’s the lowdown from a betting expert’s view: Tampa Bay is rolling in as a 1.5-point underdog (+1.5) with a moneyline of +104, while Atlanta is favored at -1.5 and -124 on the moneyline. The total for this game is set at 43.5 points, and if the Falcons’ trend continues (three of their four games have hit the under), this one might be another grind-it-out affair.
Expect the run game to be front and center. Falcons’ rookie sensation Bijan Robinson has been a machine, racking up 224 rushing yards and 135 receiving. Tampa Bay better be ready for a long night. On the other side, keep your eye on Bucs’ rookie RB Bucky Irving, who’s quietly putting up solid numbers with 203 yards on the ground and a touchdown.
Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Falcons to cover as home favorites. Right now, the point spread lines have the Falcons at -1.5, and we have them winning 21-16 over the Buccaneers in this week five matchup.
As for an over/under pick, with the line sitting at 43.5 points, we like the under, with a projected combined score of 37 points.
The running backs are the X-factors in this clash, and with playoff dreams on the line, it’s bound to be a thriller. If you’re placing your bets, this game could easily turn into a slugfest on the ground, and leaning toward the under might be the savvy play!
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
3 primetime matchups vs. the Bucs
3 primetime wins vs. the Bucshttps://t.co/4yVnQQsWkZ pic.twitter.com/iZOsz48s5q— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) October 2, 2024
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