Free NFL Week 4 Pick: Chiefs vs. Jets Odds
Looking for Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets free NFL Week 4 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Chiefs taking on the Jets on Sunday, October 1st at the MetLife Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 4 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Kansas City New York matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 4
(2-1) Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets (1-2)
NBC’s Sunday Night Football
Date: Sunday, October 1st
Time: 8:20 ET
Venue: MetLife Stadium
NFL Week 4 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Kansas City -9.5 | New York +9.5
Week 4 NFL Moneyline Odds: Kansas City -456 | New York +337
NFL Betting Total: O/U 42.5
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Get ready for this week’s Sunday Night Football showdown as the Kansas City Chiefs (2-1, 2-1 ATS) clash with the New York Jets (1-2, 1-2 ATS) at MetLife Stadium. The game kicks off at 8:20 PM EDT in East Rutherford.
The Chiefs are the clear favorites, boasting a -9.5 point spread against the Jets, with a total Over/Under set at 42.5 points. In terms of moneyline odds, the Chiefs stand at -450 as favorites, while the Jets come in as +340 underdogs.
As for the teams’ recent performances, the Chiefs dominated the Bears with a commanding 41-10 victory in Week 3, while the Jets suffered a 15-10 loss to the Pats.
For NFL history enthusiasts, the Jets and Chiefs have a storied rivalry spanning 40 matchups, including 2 postseason games. The Jets have emerged victorious 19 times, while the Chiefs have claimed victory 20 times, there’s also one tie.
The Chiefs and Jets did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Chiefs have a record of 2-1. The Chiefs also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1.
These games averaged a combined total of 46 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
Huge game for both clubs this Sunday! Who do you have winning? Comments welcome below! Weigh in!
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Kansas City Chiefs
Going into week 4, Kansas City is 1st in the AFC-West with an overall record of 2-1. Within the AFC, they find themselves in 3rd place. Currently, the Chiefs hold a 2-1 record against the spread.
In every game played so far, they have been the favored team.
In the Chiefs’ win over the Bears, the Chiefs did a good job moving the ball against the Bears defense, finishing with 31 first-downs and racking up 456 yards of offense. Defensively, the Chiefs allowed a total of 203 yards of offense to the Bears. Going into the game, Kansas City was favored by 12.5 and went on to cover the spread.
Patrick Mahomes threw for 272 yards while completing 72% of his passes and throwing for 272.
Mahomes threw for three touchdowns.
Kansas City Chiefs Stats
On offense, Patrick Mahomes ended with 272 passing yards on a completion rate of 72%. On the ground, the Chiefs ran the ball 37 times, amassing 153 yards. The team converted 10 third-downs at a rate of 71.4%.
On the offensive front, the Chiefs are currently averaging 26 points per game, positioning them 8th in the NFL.
Defensively, the Chiefs are currently ranked 12th in tackles for loss and 6th in sacks.
Their opponents have been putting up an average of 13.3 points per game against them and accumulating 280.7 yards per contest.
New York Jets
The Jets’ week 4 matchup vs. Kansas City will be their 3rd home game of the season. On the road, they have gone 1-1 and are 1-2 overall. In the AFC-East, New York is 4th and 9th in the AFC.
Leading up to this week’s game, it’s worth mentioning that the Jets have been positioned as the underdog in all of their prior games. Their current ATS record stands at 1-2, accompanied by a scoring margin of -6.3.
New York struggled with a slow start in their defeat against the Patriots, failing to register any points in the first quarter. In total, the Jets managed 171 yards on offense while allowing 358 yards on defense.
New York’s 5 point loss also resulted in a loss vs. the spread as 2.5 point underdogs. Zach Wilson did not throw or run for a touchdown, while completing 18 of 36 passes for 157 yards. Wilson ended the game with a passer rating of 61.
New York Jets Stats
New York’s offense generated 171 total yards against the Patriots. On third downs, the Jets managed a conversion rate of 14.3%. Breece Hall led the team in rushing with 18 yards, while Zach Wilson passed for 157 yards.
With an average of 14 points per contest, the New York offense currently ranks 26th in the league.
On defense, the Jets are giving up an average of 222.0 passing yards per game and 129.3. In terms of sacks, New York is 8th among other defenses and they are giving up 20.3 points per game and 351.3 yards.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Chiefs are 3-2 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Jets are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Chiefs are 5-5 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Jets have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Chiefs’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Jets’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Chiefs vs. Jets Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -360 | -454 | -7 | -9.5 |
| Jets | +285 | +337 | +7 | +9.5 |
4* Free Week 4 NFL Betting Prediction: New York +9.5
Listen, I understand what you’re thinking, this won’t be close…right? Au contraire mon frère.
I’m not going to sit here and tell you a Zach Wilson offense can trade body blows with the Chiefs, but I am going to tell you the Jets defense can limit the damage and keep this one close.
“For the Jets to win the score has to be low, real low.”
This week’s game features a formidable Jets defense, possibly the most talented this season. They boast All-Pro players at every level, and their roster is stacked with impressive athletes. Patrick Mahomes will have his hands full as he faces off against the skilled Jets secondary, comprising Gardner, Reed, Adams, and Whitehead, who are poised to smother Mahomes’ WR’s.
The Chiefs may find opportunities in the middle of the field, with Taylor Swift’s boyfriend, and an average run game, but Mosley and Sherwood are ready for this challenge. The Jets ranked as the fourth-best defense in 2022, and they’ve improved this year, and are primed to elevate their performance for this matchup. They have to. The D has to carry the O.
If the Jets can generate some explosive plays from Wilson and Hall, it will only enhance their chances further.
Even though the Jets are 9.5 point home underdogs, I like the Jets to cover the spread. New York’s defense closed out their most-recent game with a solid performance and should keep the Chiefs’ offense in check. (For the most part)
Chiefs obviously still win this one straight up, and Travis Kelce wins the year if he lands Taylor Swift.
C’mon bro we’ve got your back!
Not only does our model have a projected total of 43-45 points in this matchup, but the eye test has me feeling this line of 42.5 is low. I like the Chiefs and Jets to exceed 42.5 points.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Huge matchup here. Great analysis.
https://twitter.com/nyjets/status/1707084943673761873
In case you’re looking for Kelce/Swift prop picks and betting odds. Look no further!
https://twitter.com/Cappers_Picks/status/1707080394829676678
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