Free NFL Week 4 Pick: Steelers vs. Colts Odds
Looking for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Steelers taking on the Colts on Sunday, September 29th at the Lucas Oil Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 4 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Pittsburgh Indianapolis matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 4
(3-0) Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts (1-2)
Date: Sunday, September 29th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis IN
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Pittsburgh -2 | Indianapolis +2
NFL Moneyline Odds: Pittsburgh -129 | Indianapolis +107
NFL Betting Total: O/U 40
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Get ready for some Week 4 NFL action with a powerhouse matchup between the unbeaten Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0) and the scrappy Indianapolis Colts (1-2)! This Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium, we’ve got a game that promises grit, grind, and plenty of betting intrigue.
Pittsburgh comes in as 2-point favorites, and while they’ve dominated this head-to-head series over the last decade, covering eight of their last nine matchups, don’t sleep on the Colts—especially if you’re eyeing that juicy underdog value at +2.
With a final score of 30-13, the Colts picked up a 17-point win over the Steelers in the only meeting between the two teams last year. The Colts were favored by -1 and not only won the game but also covered the spread.
The game’s combined score of 43 points surpassed the over/under line of 41.5 points.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are now 3-0 after a 20-10 win over the Chargers. Pittsburgh fell behind early, with the Chargers scoring a touchdown in the 1st quarter. However, the Steelers responded in the 2nd quarter as Justin Fields rushed for a touchdown and later connected with George Pickens for a touchdown to take a 13-10 lead heading into halftime. Pittsburgh really took control in the 4th quarter, scoring 10 points and not allowing the Chargers to score.
In the 3rd quarter, the Steelers tied the game at 10, and early in the 4th, they took the lead for good with a touchdown pass from Fields to Scotty Miller. Fields had a strong game, also connecting with Calvin Austin III for two touchdowns in the 3rd quarter alone. The over/under line for the game was 36 points, and the teams combined for just 30 points.
Pittsburgh Steelers Stats
Justin Fields threw for 245 yards on 25/32 passing (78%) in the Steelers’ 20-10 win over the Chargers. He connected with Calvin Austin III for a 55-yard touchdown, and the team finished with 20 first downs and 232 yards passing. Fields also threw one interception and was sacked twice.
Najee Harris rushed 18 times for 70 yards and added 16 receiving yards. The Steelers’ offense struggled to establish the run, finishing with just 114 yards on 31 attempts. Fields’ 55-yard touchdown to Austin III was the only score through the air in this game.
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In their most recent game, the Steelers’ defense was dominant, allowing the Chargers to complete zero passes and giving up just 107 yards through the air. Pittsburgh’s defense also recorded five sacks and held the Chargers to a 27.3% third-down conversion rate. The Steelers’ defense didn’t allow a single completion in the passing game and limited the Chargers to just 61 yards rushing.
Pittsburgh’s defense was tough to move the ball against, as they allowed only 168 total yards in their 20-10 win over the Chargers. Despite giving up one passing touchdown, the Steelers made it tough on the Chargers’ offense throughout the game.
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis picked up a 21-16 win over the Bears, improving their record to 1-2. The Colts were -2 point favorites heading into the game. The combined 37 points was lower than the over/under line of 43.5 points. The Colts led 14-3 heading into the 4th quarter before the Bears made it a one-score game.
The Colts initially took a 14-3 lead in the 3rd quarter with a touchdown from Trey Sermon. The Bears made it 21-20 with 8:25 remaining in the 4th, but Jonathan Taylor’s late touchdown put the game out of reach. This was a non-conference matchup for the Colts.
Indianapolis Colts Stats
The Colts’ offense struggled in the passing game in their 21-16 win over the Bears, as they failed to complete a pass. Anthony Richardson threw for 167 yards on 10 completions, but he also threw both of their interceptions. Indianapolis finished with just 15 first downs and went 4-of-16 on third down.
On the ground, the Colts had 150 yards on 33 attempts, with Jonathan Taylor rushing for 110 yards and averaging 4.8 yards per attempt. Taylor also scored two rushing touchdowns. Alec Pierce was their leading receiver with 44 yards.
In their 21-16 win over the Bears, the Colts’ defense allowed just 63 rushing yards on 28 attempts, an average of 2.2 yards per attempt. Despite giving up 395 total yards, their performance on the ground was impressive. Against the pass, the Colts gave up 332 yards, with Chicago completing 0 passes. They also forced two interceptions and recorded four sacks.
Indy’s defense held the Bears to just 42.9% on third down and limited them to two touchdowns. Although they gave up some big plays, their ability to pressure the quarterback and stop the run was key to their success.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Steelers are 3-2 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Steelers are 6-4 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Colts have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Steelers’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Colts’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Steelers vs. Colts Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | -110 | -130 | +0.5 | -2 |
| Colts | -110 | +107 | -0.5 | +2 |
4* Free Week 4 NFL Betting Prediction: Indianapolis +2
Our pick vs. the spread in this week four matchup between the Colts and Steelers is to take the Colts to cover as home underdogs. The current line has the Colts at +2, and we have them not only covering but pulling off the upset by a score of 21-17.
For the over/under, with the line sitting at 40 points, we have a projected combined score of 38 points, making the under a great pick in this one.
Now, let’s talk totals. The under has been a gold mine for bettors in Steelers games, cashing in each of their first three matchups this season and hitting in four of their last five overall. And guess what? The Colts love the under too, with four of their last six falling short of the projected total. This is a perfect storm for a lower-scoring affair, so hammer that under!
With Pittsburgh riding high and the Colts looking for redemption after last year’s win against them, expect fireworks. But with these trends in play, smart money says it’ll be a grind.
Week 4 is all about finding those edges, and this game has plenty of value to bet on.
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Fall ball. pic.twitter.com/WCatwQjIl2
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) September 25, 2024
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