Free NFL Week 1 Pick: Steelers vs. Falcons Odds
Looking for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Steelers taking on the Falcons on Sunday, September 8th at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 1 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Pittsburgh Atlanta matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 1
(0-0) Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
Date: Sunday, September 8th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta GA
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Pittsburgh +3 | Atlanta -3
NFL Moneyline Odds: Pittsburgh +129 | Atlanta -154
NFL Betting Total: O/U 42
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Steelers vs. Falcons Gameday
Get ready for NFL Week 1—it’s finally here, and we’ve got a juicy matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Atlanta Falcons to kick things off! Buckle up, because this one’s going to be a thriller.
The Steelers and Falcons did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Steelers have a record of 3-0. The Steelers also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0. These games averaged a combined total of 46 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers wrapped up the 2023 regular season with a 10-7 record, placing them 7th in the AFC and 3rd in the AFC North. They were tough against divisional opponents, finishing 5-1 within the AFC North. Despite a 31-17 loss to the Bills in the Wild Card round, Pittsburgh made the playoffs. They were 8-6 against teams with winning records and 2-2 against teams with losing records.
Against the spread, the Steelers were 10-8, including a 5-4 record both at home and on the road. Their over/under record was 7-11, and the average over/under line in their games was 38.8, with an average of 37.6 combined points per game.
Pittsburgh Steelers Stats
Offensively, the Steelers struggled last season, averaging just 17.8 points per game, which ranked 28th in the NFL. They were also 25th in overall offensive yardage, averaging 305.4 yards per game. Averaging only 187.8 passing yards per game, they were 25th in the league.
Pittsburgh’s rushing game was more effective, averaging 117.6 yards per game (11th) on 28.3 attempts per game, the 9th most in the league. However, their inability to sustain drives was evident in their 20th ranked red zone attempts. Additionally, the Steelers were 20th in third-down conversion percentage, converting only 36.6% of their third-down opportunities.
George Pickens, who is heading into his 3rd season in the league, played in 17 games last year for the Steelers, finishing with 1140 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Joining him in the wide receiver room is Van Jefferson, who had 209 receiving yards on 20 catches for the Falcons last year. Calvin Austin III, also in his 3rd season, played in 17 games for Pittsburgh and finished with 180 receiving yards and one touchdown.
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The Steelers’ defense was one of the best at taking the ball away last season, ranking 5th in the league with 27 takeaways. They also excelled in turnover differential, ranking 2nd in the NFL. Despite finishing 21st in yards allowed, they gave up just 19.7 points per game, placing them 8th in the league. Their defense power ranking was 6th in the NFL.
Pittsburgh’s run defense was strong, giving up the 3rd fewest rushing touchdowns and ranking 8th in rushing yards allowed. In the passing game, they limited quarterbacks to a 82.51 passer rating and allowed the 7th fewest passing touchdowns. However, they allowed the 10th most quarterback hits.
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta was 5-4 against teams with above .500 records but struggled against weaker opponents, going only 2-6 against below .500 teams. The Falcons wrapped up the 2023 season with a 7-10 record, placing them 3rd in the NFC South and 12th in the NFC overall. They were 2-7 on the road but played well at home, going 5-3. Within their division, they were 3-3.
As favorites, the Falcons were 5-6, and as underdogs, they were 2-4. Their ATS record for the season was 5-12, going 3-8 ATS as favorites and 2-4 ATS as underdogs. The Falcons’ over/under record was 7-10, with their games averaging a combined 40.8 points per game.
Atlanta Falcons Stats
On the road, the Falcons were just 2-7, but they played much better at home, going 5-3. Last season, they were 5-6 when favored and 2-4 as the underdog. Atlanta’s record vs. the spread was 5-12, with a 3-8 record as the favorite and a 2-4 record as the underdog. They finished the season with a 7-10 over/under record.
Against teams with above .500 records, the Falcons were 5-4, but they struggled against weaker opponents, going only 2-6. Overall, the Falcons finished the 2023 season with a 7-10 record. They were below average in the NFC, finishing 12th with a 4-8 record, but they were 3rd in the NFC South with a 3-3 record within their division.
Ray-Ray McCloud III is one of the new additions to the Falcons’ receiving group this season. He played in 12 games for the 49ers last year and is entering his 7th season in the league. The Falcons are also adding Darnell Mooney from the Bears, who had 414 receiving yards on 31 catches last year. Within the Falcons’ group, Drake London is coming over after playing in 16 games last year and finishing with 905 receiving yards and two touchdowns. He averaged 6.6 fantasy points per game last season.
Atlanta’s defense was one of the better units in the league last season, finishing 10th in the defensive power rankings. They were also 10th in yards allowed, giving up 321.1 yards per game. The Falcons held offenses to the 3rd lowest third down conversion rate, allowing just 33.8% of third down attempts to be converted.
Despite their overall success, the Falcons were just 17th in points allowed, giving up 21.9 points per game. In terms of takeaways, they forced 16 turnovers, which was right in the middle of the pack compared to other teams. Opposing offenses had the 6th most passing attempts per game against Atlanta.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Steelers are 2-3 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Falcons are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Steelers are 6-4 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Falcons have gone 2-8 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Steelers’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Falcons’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Steelers vs. Falcons Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | +122 | +129 | +3 | +3 |
| Falcons | -148 | -154 | -3 | -3 |
4* Free Week 1 NFL Betting Prediction: Pittsburgh +3
The Falcons are favored by 3, but don’t sleep on Pittsburgh. With that classic grit, they’ll keep it tight. Sure, Atlanta’s got the firepower at home, but Pittsburgh thrives as the underdog. I’m calling it: the Steelers cover the +3, but just fall short in a nail-biter, 21-20.
If you’re looking for some Week 1 betting magic, take Pittsburgh ATS and get ready for an edge-of-your-seat showdown!
For an over/under pick, we are leaning towards taking the under, with a projected combined score of 41 points. With the O/U line sitting at just 42 points, there is a lot of value in taking the under.
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Fly With Us@QuavoStuntin x @LennyKravitz pic.twitter.com/4ULU8Jk5Bt
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) September 5, 2024
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