Free NFL Week 17 Pick: Jets vs. Bills Odds
Looking for New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Jets taking on the Bills on Sunday, December 29th at the Highmark Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 17 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this New York Buffalo matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 17
(4-11) New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills (12-3)
Date: Sunday, December 29th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park NY
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) New York +9.5 | Buffalo -9.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: New York +372 | Buffalo -498
NFL Betting Total: O/U 46.5
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When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Bills have the leg up at 2-1.
The Bills also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 39 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
New York Jets
Heading into week 17, the Jets sit at 4-11, putting them 18th in our power rankings and giving them a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs. New York is 3rd in the AFC East with a 1-3 division record, and they are 4-6 in conference play. They are 2-5 at home and 2-6 on the road.
Against the spread, the Jets are 5-10, with an average scoring margin of -3.5 points per game. They are 4-6 ATS as favorites and 1-4 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 8-6-1, with their games averaging 42.4 points per game, which is also the average line in their matchups.
New York Jets Stats
Heading into week 17, the Jets rank 16th in our offensive power rankings. They are 24th in the NFL in points per game (19.5) and 23rd in yards per game (307.9). New York has been pass-heavy, ranking 8th in passing attempts and 17th in passing yards per game. On the ground, they rank 28th in rushing attempts and 31st in rushing yards per game. The Jets rank 12th in 3rd-down conversions and 16th in red zone efficiency, converting 27.1% of their trips.
Aaron Rodgers threw for 256 yards (28/42) and a touchdown in week 16, with Davante Adams catching 7 passes for 68 yards and a score. Breece Hall led the team with 52 rushing yards on 14 carries. The Jets scored just 9 points, all in the first half, in their loss to the Rams.
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In their 19-9 loss to the Rams, the Jets’ defense allowed 132 rushing yards on 31 attempts, with Los Angeles gaining 242 total yards. Despite giving up 132 yards on the ground, the Jets held the Rams to a 4.3 yards per attempt average. The Jets’ defense limited the Rams to 110 yards passing, but they did allow one passing touchdown.
New York’s defense struggled on third down, allowing the Rams to convert on 50% of their third down attempts. They also failed to record a sack in the game and allowed the Rams’ quarterback to complete 73.7% of their passes. The Jets’ defense did come up with one interception.
Buffalo Bills
With a 12-3 record, the Bills sit atop the AFC East and have a 100% chance of winning the division and making the playoffs. They are currently 4th in our NFL power rankings. Buffalo has won two straight games, including a 24-21 victory over the Patriots in week 16. The Bills were 14-point favorites in that game but couldn’t cover the spread. They also narrowly beat the Lions in week 15, winning 48-42 and covering the spread as 2.5-point underdogs.
Buffalo is 9-6 against the spread this season, with an average scoring margin of +9.2 points. Their O/U record is also 9-6, with their games averaging 53.3 points compared to an average line of 47. In week 17, the Bills will look to remain undefeated at home when they take on the Jets.
Buffalo Bills Stats
Josh Allen had a rough outing in week 16, finishing with a passer rating of 67 after throwing for 154 yards, one touchdown, and one interception against the Patriots. This came after two strong performances, including a 362-yard game in week 15 and a 342-yard, 3-touchdown effort in week 14. James Cook rushed for 100 yards on 11 carries in week 16, and he also led the team in receiving with 26 yards.
Heading into week 17, the Bills rank 2nd in our offensive power rankings. They are 2nd in the NFL in points per game, averaging 31.3, and 7th in yards per game with 366.5. Buffalo ranks 9th in passing yards per game (233) and 9th in rushing yards per game (133.5).
In their 24-21 win over the Patriots, the Bills’ defense gave up 253 passing yards on 22 completions. New England finished with 379 total yards, including 126 rushing yards on 30 attempts. Buffalo defended the pass well, allowing just a 61.1% completion rate and coming up with one interception.
On third down, the Bills allowed the Patriots to convert 58.3% of their chances. Buffalo’s defense managed two sacks and won the quarterback hit battle by a margin of +2.
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Jets are 1-4 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Bills are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Jets are 4-6 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Bills have gone 6-4 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Jets’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Bills’ have an over/under record of 3-0 in their last 3 games at home.
Jets vs. Bills Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | +114 | +372 | +2.5 | +9.5 |
| Bills | -135 | -498 | -2.5 | -9.5 |
4* Free Week 17 NFL Betting Prediction: New York +9.5
Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Jets to cover as 9.5-point road underdogs in this week 17 matchup between the Jets and Bills. Even though we have the Bills winning 23-17, the Jets’ point spread of +9.5 makes them our pick to cover.
For the over/under, with the line sitting at 46.5 points, we like the under, with a projected combined score of 40 points.
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New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
SNOWBALL FIGHT‼️#GoBills | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/k3YHNhnzaX
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 27, 2024
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