Free NFL Week 11 Pick: Jets vs. Bills Odds
Looking for New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills free NFL Week 11 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Jets taking on the Bills on Sunday, November 19th at the Highmark Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 11 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this New York Buffalo matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 11
(4-5) New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills (5-5)
Date: Sunday, November 19th
Time: 4:25 ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park NY
NFL Week 11 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) New York +7 | Buffalo -7
Week 11 NFL Moneyline Odds: New York +253 | Buffalo -325
NFL Betting Total: O/U 40.5
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This just in via PFF. The Bills have a 45% chance of making the playoffs with a Week 11 win against the Jets, but their chances will fall to just 13% with a loss.
Queue the Drama!
Who can forget that first game of the season? All the pomp and circumstance over how Buffalo would be the team to make it to the Super Bowl. Taking on Aaron Rodgers on his new team, in Week 1. So much drama. And then… WHAM. The Jets lose their QB but grab a 22-16 OT win over the Buffalo Bills.
Josh Allen was forced into 4 turnovers and the Jets defense looked dominant.
When the Jets and Bills faced off for the first time, it was Jets who clinched a 22-16 win. Going into the game, it was the Jets who were the underdogs with a +2.5 point spread, and they secured an ATS win.
The over/under line going into the game was 44.5 points, which the teams fell short of.
The longstanding NYJ vs. BUFFALO rivalry has seen 126 matchups, plus it’s had one postseason clash thru the years. The Jets got the best of Buffalo in 58 of these contests, while the Bills emerged victorious in 68, forging a fiercely competitive history between the two. It’s been one of the best rivalries in the NFL thru the years.
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New York Jets
The Jets’ week 11 matchup vs. Buffalo will be their 5th road game of the season. On the road, they have gone 2-2 and are 4-5 overall. In the AFC-East, New York is 3rd and 13th in the AFC. The Jets’ scoring margin thus far is currently at -3.1.
This has contributed to an ATS record of 4-4-1.
Defensively, the Jets gave up 274 yards of total offense to the Raiders in a 16-12 loss.
The Raiders ran the ball for 148 yards while throwing for 126. On offense, the Jets went 7/16 on 3rd down and finished with 365 yards of total offense.
New York also lost the game vs. the spread as they were 0.5 point favorites. Zach Wilson did not throw or run for a touchdown, while completing 23 of 39 passes for 263 yards. Wilson ended the game with a passer rating of 68.
New York Jets Stats
New York’s offense generated 365 total yards against the Raiders. On third downs, the Jets managed a conversion rate of 43.8%. Zach Wilson led the team in rushing with 54 yards, while Zach Wilson passed for 263 yards.
The Jets come in with an average 16 points per game on offense, which has them 27th in the NFL.
When it comes to yards allowed, the Jets rank 7th in the league, conceding an average of 307.8 yards per contest.
New York’s defense has allowed 19.1 points per game, which has them 6th in the NFL.
The Bills enter their matchup against the Jets with a 5-5 record. This mark puts them 2nd in AFC-East. In the AFC overall standings, they are 10th.
Taking a look at the Bills’ scoring margin this season, it is currently at +7.8. This has resulted in an ATS record of 3-7.
Defensively, the Bills gave up 300 yards of total offense to the Broncos in a 24-22 loss. The Broncos ran the ball for 122 yards while throwing for 178. On offense, the Bills went 3/8 on 3rd down and finished with 369 yards of total offense.
Buffalo also lost the game vs. the spread as they were 7.5 point favorites. Quarterback Josh Allen threw for one touchdown and ran for 1 score. Allen completed 57% of his passes for 177 yards.
Buffalo Bills Stats
Buffalo’s offense produced a total of 369 yards against the Broncos. When it came to third downs, the Bills had a conversion rate of 37.5%.
The leading rusher for the Bills was James Cook with 109 yards, and Josh Allen contributed 177 passing yards.
As they enter week 11, the Bills offense ranks 7th in the league, averaging 26.2 points per contest.
On the defensive front, the Bills currently hold the 3rd position in tackles for loss and rank 2nd in sacks. Opponents are averaging 18.4 points and 330.6 yards per game against them.
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Jets are 3-2 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Bills are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Jets are 3-6-1 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Bills have gone 4-6 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Jets’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Bills’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Jets vs. Bills Line Movement
4* Free Week 11 NFL Betting Prediction: Buffalo -7
Considering Buffalo is up against a New York defense that struggled to contain the run against Denver, I’m taking Buffalo at -7 for this matchup.
Jets are 2-7 SU in their last 9 on the road. Buffalo 8-3 SU in their last 11 when playing at home against NY.
It’s going to be a ground-n-pound type of game.
I have to admit I’m not betting on this play myself, I’m picking it, but not betting it. I LOVE THE O/U more. Hammering the UNDER.
Our model sees the over/under line for this matchup being to high and like the outlook of this game to stay below 40.5 points. The UNDER has hit in 4 of the Jets last 5.
The betting model spit out this game finishing with a combined 35 points.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo’s last 6 games, plus the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo’s last 6 against NY.
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New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Bills Will Get It Turned Around!
Back-to-back home games for the first time this season.
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) November 15, 2023
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