Free Week 13 Prediction: Giants vs. Commanders NFL Odds
Looking for New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders Free NFL Week 13 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Giants taking on the Commanders on Sunday, December 4th, 2022 at MetLife Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 13 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this New York Washington Matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 13
New York Giants (7-4) vs. Washington Commanders (7-5)
Date: Sunday, December 4th, 2022
Time: 1:00 PM EST
Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
NFL Week 13 ATS Betting Lines: Giants +2 (-110) | Commanders -2 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 13 Moneyline Odds: Giants +105 | Commanders -128
NFL Week 13 NFL Betting Total: O/U 40.5
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Week 13 sees a rare late season battle with playoff implications between New York and Washington.
Who would have guessed this?
New York, armed with a brand new power structure and a host of questions, find themselves with a meaningful game in week 13.
Washington benched Wentz fairly early into their marriage, but have fought back from a 1-4 start and won 6 of their last 7 games.
Both of these teams getting to this point had stiff odds, but highlight two examples of virtuoso coaching performances.
New York Giants
The Giants started the season hot, but most outlets are now labeling them as spent. Their offense is basic, but it’s mostly limited by the personnel. Daniel Jones has made the best of what he can, but it still shows he’s capped. There’s a real ceiling.
Barkley has carried most of the load this season for an offense that is averaging just 20.4 ppg. DVOA is still a fan of the Giants, ranking them 16th overall and above average in both passing and rushing. Washington has excelled in stopping the run, so this could be a tough day for Big Blue.
The Giants lack true receiving threats and the offensive line has surrendered the 3rd worst adjusted sack rate.
The defense has made the most of their efforts through blitzing. No team does it more than the G-men, and they’re above average in pressure rate. Kayvon Thibodeaux is winning pass rush reps near the top of the rookie class and looks like a worthwhile addition.
Still, the Giants are vulnerable to pass heavy sets, allowing the 10th highest EPA/dropback. Heinicke isn’t necessarily a world beater, but Washington has mulitiple receiving threats and the Giants suddenly find themselves further bereft of CB depth after Adoree Jackson’s injury.
Washington Commanders
Washington has won 6 of 7 by doing just enough. Though they do have an impressive win over Philly, but in that 7 game stretch they’re 4-1 in one score games and that’s generally something we expect to see regression in.
EPA really doesn’t love the Washington offense, but similar to the Giants, they can win games without posting impressive offensive statistics. Their style is based on ball control, running to stay on schedule and throwing just enough to keep the defense guessing.
In that 7 game stretch, they’ve averaged nearly 23 ppg, so in a multitude of ways, this game will be the Spider-Man meme.
The defense is the main reason they’ve made it to this point. The rushing defense is top-5 by DVOA, which is key against Barkley. They’re 10th in points allowed per drive, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see this game be a battle of the kickers.
NFL Betting Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington’s last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
- Washington is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants’s last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
- The total has gone UNDER in 15 of NY Giants’s last 18 games at home
4* Free Week 13 NFL Betting Prediction: NYG +2
The Giants and Commanders are both hitting the under north of 63% this season. Weather notwithstanding, neither offense is a juggernaut and predicate moving the ball via pounding the rock.
Given both teams’ affinity for running and their penchant for low scoring games, the total makes some sense here. In their last 6 meetings, the average game total is 45.5 however.
The Giants have done well as a home underdog this season, going 2-0 ATS and covering by an average of 6.8 points. In a game of field goals, I’ll take the Giants getting points.
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