Free NFL Pick: Patriots vs. Jaguars Odds
Looking for New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Free NFL predictions? NFL betting sees the Patriots taking on the Jaguars on 9/27 at EverBank Stadium, in Jacksonville. This free NFL football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Patriots Jaguars matchup.
2026 NFL Handicapping – New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars
(1-1) New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1)
Date: Sep 27, 2026
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, FL
NFL Moneyline Odds: Patriots +130 | Jaguars -153 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NFL Betting Odds: Patriots +3 | Jaguars -3
NFL Football Gambling Total: O/U: 45
Here’s why I’m backing an OVER bet below in my Patriots Jaguars free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Patriots vs. Jaguars Gameday
The New England Patriots head to Jacksonville Sunday for a Week 3 matchup with the Jaguars at EverBank Stadium. Both teams enter 1-1, with kickoff set for 1:00 PM ET on CBS.
New England opened with a 13-10 loss at Seattle before returning home and beating Pittsburgh 20-3. Mike Vrabel’s defense did most of the heavy lifting against the Steelers, holding Pittsburgh to 235 yards and scoring a fourth-quarter touchdown of its own.
New England’s defense handled Pittsburgh nicely; Trevor Lawrence presents a considerably less cooperative Sunday afternoon.
Jacksonville followed a 34-10 home win over Cleveland with a 20-13 loss at Denver. The Jaguars led 13-6 early in the third quarter before Denver scored the final 14 points.
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The Jaguars have won the last two meetings, including a 32-16 victory in London in 2024 and a 31-20 home win in 2018. New England still owns a 12-3 overall advantage in the series, including the playoffs.
New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds & Last 5
Jacksonville is a 2.5-point home favorite after the line opened around Jaguars -3. The Patriots are roughly +130 on the moneyline, while the total remains 45.5.
New England’s first two games have produced only 23 points apiece.
The Patriots scored 10 at Seattle before beating Pittsburgh 20-3, although only one of those touchdowns came from the offense. Christian Barmore’s strip-sack against Aaron Rodgers produced a 19-yard Elijah Ponder scoop-and-score that put the Steelers away.
Jacksonville has shown considerably more offensive upside.
The Jaguars scored 34 in their opener before managing 13 in Denver. Lawrence threw four touchdown passes against Cleveland, but Denver held him without one and intercepted him once while Jacksonville went scoreless over its final five possessions.
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Jaguars Stats
Jacksonville is averaging 23.5 points and 314 yards through two games. The Jaguars have been reasonably balanced, averaging 203.5 yards through the air and 110.5 on the ground.
Trevor Lawrence has completed 35 of 52 passes for 434 yards, four touchdowns and one interception.
All four touchdown passes came in the opener against Cleveland, when Lawrence completed 18 of 23 throws for 245 yards and finished with a 150.6 passer rating. Denver made him work considerably harder, holding him to 189 yards and intercepting him in the second half.
Bhayshul Tuten leads Jacksonville with 131 rushing yards and a touchdown. Jakobi Meyers has 11 catches for 153 yards, while Brian Thomas Jr. has eight receptions for 105 yards and two scores.
The Jaguars have also taken care of the football better than New England. Jacksonville owns a +2 turnover differential through two games, while its defense has produced five sacks and two interceptions.
That defense hasn’t been airtight, though.
Jacksonville is allowing 332 yards per game, including 236.5 through the air. The Jaguars limited Cleveland to 10 points before Denver generated 372 yards and controlled the fourth quarter last Sunday.
Patriots Stats
New England’s defense has been excellent through two games, allowing an NFL-low 8 points per contest and 260 yards per game. The Patriots have surrendered only 16 points total while producing six sacks.
Sixteen points allowed in two games will travel; eventually, the Patriots offense needs to bring something along too.
The offense has been a different story. New England is averaging 15 points and 302 yards, with only three touchdowns through two games.
Drake Maye has completed 37 of 55 passes for 386 yards and one touchdown.
The turnover number is the problem. Maye has already thrown four interceptions, including three in the opener at Seattle and another against Pittsburgh.
TreVeyon Henderson gave the running game some juice last week, rushing for 76 yards and breaking a 39-yard touchdown. Romeo Doubs added three catches for 96 yards, including a 63-yarder that provided New England’s biggest passing play of the young season.
The Patriots have averaged 122.5 rushing yards per game, which gives Josh McDaniels something to lean on while Maye settles down. Jacksonville has allowed 95.5 rushing yards per contest, so New England shouldn’t have to make this a 40-pass afternoon unless the scoreboard forces it.
The offensive line is worth watching.
Mike Onwenu was placed on injured reserve this week, while Morgan Moses remained limited Thursday with a foot injury. New England also had Dre’Mont Jones, Eli Raridon, Quintayvious Hutchins and Craig Woodson out of Thursday’s practice.
Patriots vs. Jaguars QB Matchup
Trevor Lawrence has been the more efficient quarterback through two weeks, completing 67.3% of his passes for 434 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. He’s averaging 8.4 yards per attempt and has been sacked only three times.
His two Sundays looked very different.
Lawrence carved up Cleveland for four touchdowns without an interception, then threw for 189 yards with no touchdowns and one pick at Denver. New England now brings a defense allowing only 166 passing yards per game.
Drake Maye has had a much bumpier September.
Maye has thrown for 386 yards with one touchdown and four interceptions, although there were better signs against Pittsburgh. He averaged 9.5 yards per attempt, hit four passes of at least 20 yards and finished with 208 despite throwing another interception.
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Jacksonville’s secondary offers Maye more room than New England’s first two opponents allowed.
The Jaguars have surrendered 473 passing yards through two games, and Maye showed last week that he can create chunk plays when protection holds. New England needs those explosives without donating possessions on the other end.
Lawrence has been cleaner with the football.
Maye gets the friendlier secondary.
New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars bottom line: New England’s defense has carried the Patriots through two low-scoring games, but Lawrence raises the offensive difficulty while Jacksonville’s secondary gives Maye a legitimate opportunity to answer with more production of his own.
New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Football Betting Trends
- The Patriots have won 7 of their last 8 regular season away games straight-up.
- Additionally, New England has covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 regular season away games.
- The Jaguars are undefeated in their last 7 games as favorites straight-up.
- Jacksonville has covered the spread in their last 6 games as favorites.
- Also, the Jaguars are 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 home games.
- In their last 4 home games, Jacksonville games have gone over the total each time.
Patriots Jaguars Free Pick: Over 45.5
Here is my Patriots Jaguars free pick: I’m taking Over 45.5. Jacksonville has scored 47 points through two games, and Trevor Lawrence has already thrown four touchdowns. New England’s defense has been excellent, but this is a much different assignment than a rain-soaked Pittsburgh offense.
The Patriots also need more from Drake Maye, and Jacksonville gives them a chance to find it. The Jaguars are allowing 236.5 passing yards per game, while Maye produced four completions of 20-plus yards last week despite New England scoring only one offensive touchdown.
Jacksonville has the quarterback and enough playmakers to force New England out of a 20-point comfort zone.
The part I like most is the number. We don’t need 60 here; a 27-20 type game gets home, and Jacksonville’s defense has allowed enough through the air to give Maye opportunities.
Lawrence has been efficient, New England has explosive-play potential, and both offenses should have chances once this game settles in. I’m betting we get considerably more offense than the Patriots have shown through two weeks.
Take Over 45.5.
Today’s NFL Free Pick
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Jacksonville Jaguars on X
Sports but make it art 🥹 pic.twitter.com/IIPBxBlMKK
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) September 24, 2026
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