Free NFL Week 5 Pick: Saints vs. Patriots Odds
Looking for New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots free NFL Week 5 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Saints taking on the Patriots on Sunday, October 8th at the Gillette Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 5 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this New Orleans New England matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 5
(2-2) New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots (1-3)
Date: Sunday, October 8th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium
NFL Week 5 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) New Orleans +1.5 | New England -1.5
Week 5 NFL Moneyline Odds: New Orleans +102 | New England -124
NFL Betting Total: O/U 39.5
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Get ready for some Sunday football action on October 8th as the (2-2) New Orleans Saints go head-to-head with the struggling (1-3) New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium, kicking off at 1:00 ET. Betting-wise, it’s been a tough road for the Saints in 2023, going 0-3-1 ATS, while the Patriots haven’t fared much better at 1-3 ATS.
The odds are set at New Orleans +1.5 and New England -1.5, with a Moneyline of New Orleans +102 and New England -124. The Over/Under is at 39.5 points.
Last week, the Saints faced a 26-9 defeat against the Bucs, while the Patriots experienced a crushing 38-3 loss to the Cowboys, marking Bill Belichick’s worst loss in his 29 seasons as head coach.
Last season, the Saints and Patriots did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Patriots have the leg up at 2-1. The Patriots also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1.
These games averaged a combined total of 51 points per game leading to an over/under record of 2-1.
The Patriots-Saints rivalry has seen 15 matchups, with the Pats emerging victorious in 10 contests, while the Saints have claimed victory in 5.
For in-depth insights and expert analysis on this intriguing matchup, stay tuned to our NFL football handicapping blog.
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New Orleans Saints
This week will be the Saints’ 3rd road game of the season. So far, they have put together a record of 1-1 on the road and 1-1 at home. Their overall mark of 2-2 has them sitting 3rd in the NFC-South.
At present, the Saints have a 0-3-1 record against the spread. All of their games this season have seen them as the favored team.
The Saints’ loss to the Buccaneers is one of their worst margins of defeat in recent history. The Saints’ defense allowed 353 yards of total offense which included 114 yards on the ground and 239 through the air. Offensively, the Saints finished with 197 of total offense.
New Orleans also lost the game vs. the spread as they were 4.5 point favorites. Derek Carr did not throw or run for a touchdown, while completing 23 of 37 passes for 127 yards. Carr ended the game with a passer rating of 68.
New Orleans Saints Stats
Versus the Buccaneers, the Saints turned to the run 19 times, and it was Alvin Kamara who led the way with 51 yards. Meanwhile, Derek Carr finished with 37 pass attempts, resulting in 127 yards and a passer rating of 68.
Coming into week 5, the Saints offense is 24th in the league at 15.5 points per contest.
The Saints’ defense, so far, has an average of 304.2 yards given up per game and 19 points per contest (7th).
Leading up to the game, they’ve allowed a completion percentage of 59.0% and five passing touchdowns. In terms of stopping the run, they are 10th in the NFL.
New England Patriots
The Patriots come into their matchup against the Saints with a 1-3 record. In the AFC-East, they are 3rd and 12th in AFC overall standings. Taking a look at the Patriots’ scoring margin this season, it is currently at -10.5.
This has resulted in an ATS record of 1-3.
Defensively, the Patriots gave up 377 yards of total offense to the Cowboys in a 38-3 loss. The Cowboys ran the ball for 124 yards while throwing for 253. On offense, the Patriots went 4/13 on 3rd down and finished with 253 yards of total offense.
New England’s 35 point loss also resulted in a loss vs. the spread as 6 point underdogs. Mac Jones did not throw or run for a touchdown, while completing 12 of 21 passes for 150 yards.
Jones ended the game with a passer rating of 39.
New England Patriots Stats
Offensively, Mac Jones finished with 150 passing yards while completing 57% of his passes. On the ground, the Patriots rushed the ball 23 times for 53 yards. The team converted 4 of 13 third-down opportunities.
On the offensive front, the Patriots are currently averaging 13.8 points per game, positioning them 25th in the NFL.
The Patriots defense takes on the Saints having given up an average of 24.2 points per game.
So far, they are 11th in quarterback hits and are giving up 297.0 yards per contest.
New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Saints are 3-2 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Saints are 3-6-1 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Patriots have gone 5-4-1 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Saints’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 0-3.
- The Patriots’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Saints vs. Patriots Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | +104 | +102 | +1.5 | +1.5 |
| Patriots | -122 | -124 | -1.5 | -1.5 |
4* Free Week 5 NFL Betting Prediction: New England -1.5
The Saints are poised to put forth a strong performance away from home this week, effectively restraining New England.
I’m favoring New England to cover as 1.5-point favorites.
New Orleans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, and are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games against New England.
On the over/under, I have the best bet being to take the over at 39.5. This looks like a slam dunk bet for me, as my gut tells me the over will hit as well as our model projecting a combined 45 points.
Considering the current state of both offenses, it should come as no shock that this game is expected to have the lowest total score in Week 5.
So, I’m going to zig while the public zags. The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England’s last 7 games when playing at home against New Orleans.
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New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Thoughts and reactions following Week 4.
Patriots Unfiltered Mailbag: https://t.co/tI3yIvQ2dJ
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) October 3, 2023
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