Free NFL Week 7 Pick: Patriots vs. Jaguars Odds
Looking for New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Patriots taking on the Jaguars on Sunday, October 20th at the Wembley Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 7 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this New England Jacksonville matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 7
(1-5) New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5)
Date: Sunday, October 20th
Time: 9:30 ET
Venue: Wembley Stadium, London, UK
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) New England +5.5 | Jacksonville -5.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: New England +195 | Jacksonville -239
NFL Betting Total: O/U 42.5
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It’s Week 7, folks, and we’ve got a juicy matchup across the pond at Wembley Stadium!
The Patriots and Jaguars may both be sitting at 1-5, but don’t sleep on this one—it’s got betting value written all over it. New England has dominated this head-to-head rivalry historically, winning 12 of the 14 matchups, including five postseason showdowns.
But this is 2024, and the Jaguars, who are 6-5 in their London appearances, will be looking to make a statement.
The Patriots and Jaguars did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Patriots have a record of 2-1.
However, against the spread the Jaguars went 2-1.
The over/under record in these matchups was 2-1 on an average of 51 points per game.
New England Patriots
Heading into week 7, the Patriots are on a five-game losing streak, dropping them to 1-5 on the season. After a week 1 win over the Bengals, New England has struggled, including a 41-21 loss to the Texans in week 6. The Patriots were 6.5-point underdogs in that game, and the 62 combined points easily hit the over (39.5). Their O/U record is 3-3 this year.
New England ranks 32nd in our power rankings and has just a 0.3% chance of making the playoffs. They are 1-4-1 against the spread and have been underdogs in all of their games so far.
New England Patriots Stats
Heading into week 7, the Patriots rank 29th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 13.8 points per game, which places them 28th in the NFL. They are 30th in total yards per game (257.5) and last in passing yards, with 134.3 per game on 29.3 attempts. However, they rank 12th in rushing, averaging 123.2 yards per game on 26.5 attempts. On 3rd down, New England is converting 31% of the time, ranking 24th in the league, but they have been efficient in the red zone, converting 78.6% of their opportunities, which ranks 4th.
In week 6, Drake Maye threw for 243 yards, going 20/33 with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Demario Douglas led the team in receiving with 6 catches for 92 yards, while Maye also led the team in rushing with 38 yards on 5 carries. New England struggled on 3rd down, converting just 3 of 13 attempts, but they scored on their lone red zone trip.
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The Patriots’ defense gave up 192 rushing yards to the Texans in their most recent game, contributing to a 41-21 loss. Despite this, New England’s pass defense was better, allowing just 176 yards through the air on 20 completions. The Patriots gave up three passing touchdowns and struggled to stop the run, with Houston averaging 6.9 yards per attempt on the ground.
New England’s defense did come up with one interception and recorded two sacks in the game. They also held the Texans to a 36.4% conversion rate on third down. However, giving up big plays in the running game and three rushing touchdowns was a significant factor in their defeat.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville sits 24th in our NFL power rankings and has a 4.8% chance of making the playoffs. They are 1-5 on the season, including a 1-1 record at home and a 0-4 record on the road. In week 6, the Jaguars couldn’t build on their week 5 win over the Colts, losing 35-16 to the Bears. Jacksonville was a 1.5-point favorite in that game, but they couldn’t get the win, dropping them to 1-5.
Jacksonville is 2-4 against the spread this season, with both of their ATS wins coming as underdogs. They have failed to cover in two straight games, including a week 6 loss to the Bears. The over has hit in Jacksonville’s last two games, with their matchups averaging 48.5 points per game.
Jacksonville Jaguars Stats
Heading into week 7, Jacksonville ranks 22nd in our offensive power rankings. They are 20th in the NFL in points per game (18.8) and 19th in yards per game (319.5). The Jaguars have relied heavily on the passing game, averaging 33.3 attempts per game (10th), resulting in 203 passing yards per game (20th). On the ground, they rank 28th in rushing attempts and 19th in rushing yards per game, with 116.5 yards. Jacksonville has struggled on 3rd down, converting just 30.4% of their attempts, which ranks 25th in the league.
Trevor Lawrence threw for 234 yards (23/35) and 2 touchdowns in week 6 against the Bears, finishing with a passer rating of 91. Evan Engram led the team with 10 receptions for 102 yards, while D’Ernest Johnson had 6 carries for 28 yards. Jacksonville scored 3 points in the 1st quarter, 0 in the 2nd, 7 in the 3rd, and 6 in the 4th.
In the Jaguars’ 35-16 loss to the Bears, their defense struggled to defend the pass, allowing four passing touchdowns and a completion rate of 79.3%. Despite forcing one interception, the Jaguars gave up 221 passing yards. They also struggled against the run, allowing 152 yards on 29 attempts (5.2 yards per attempt), and their offense managed just 16 points.
Jacksonville’s defense did manage three sacks in the game but allowed the Bears to convert on 45.5% of their third down attempts. The Jaguars’ inability to stop the big plays in the passing game led to this lopsided defeat.
New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Patriots are 0-4-1 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Patriots are 4-6 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Jaguars have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Patriots’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Jaguars’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Patriots vs. Jaguars Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | +245 | +195 | +6.5 | +5.5 |
| Jaguars | -310 | -239 | -6.5 | -5.5 |
4* Free Week 7 NFL Betting Prediction: New England +5.5
The spread is currently set at Jacksonville -5.5, and while the Jags have struggled as favorites recently, going 1-4 ATS in their last five, the Patriots haven’t exactly been lighting it up either.
Our pick is to take the Jags to get the straight up win. However, our projected final score is 26-24. We have the Pats as our pick vs. the spread.
But the real action here might be in the total, set at 42.5. Both teams have split their OVER/UNDER results this season, but I’ve got a feeling this one’s leaning towards the OVER. Expect Evan Engram to carve up a shaky Pats defense, and don’t count out New England to keep pace—this game has “points galore” written all over it.
Looking for some betting spice? This is the one to watch. Buckle up, Week 7 bettors, it’s gonna be a ride!
For the over/under line, we like the over with a projected combined score of 50 points, and with the O/U line at 42.5, there is a lot of value in taking the over.
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New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Rip reps#NEvsJAX pic.twitter.com/Kf5DKDe4vx
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) October 17, 2024
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