Free NFL Week 1 Pick: Patriots vs. Bengals Odds
Looking for New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Patriots taking on the Bengals on Sunday, September 8th at the Paycor Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 1 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this New England Cincinnati matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 1
(0-0) New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals (0-0)
Date: Sunday, September 8th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati OH
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) New England +8.5 | Cincinnati -8.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: New England +332 | Cincinnati -431
NFL Betting Total: O/U 40.5
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Patriots vs. Bengals Gameday
NFL Week 1 is here, and if you’re a football fan and a betting enthusiast, you’re in for a treat! We’ve got a red-hot matchup on deck: the New England Patriots heading to Cincinnati to face off against the Bengals. This is no ordinary Week 1 game—this is where we kick off the season with some serious action, and I’m fired up to break it all down!
The Patriots and Bengals did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Patriots have a record of 2-1. The Patriots also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 46 points per game leading to an over/under record of 2-1.
New England Patriots
The Patriots’ ATS record of 5-11-1 included a 1-4 mark as the favorite and a 4-7-1 mark as the underdog. New England’s tough season included just one win in non-conference games, finishing 0-5, and a 1-4 record as the favorite. They were 3-9 as the underdog. The Patriots went 2-4 in the AFC East and were 4-13 overall, putting them in last place in the division.
Against the spread, the Patriots were 1-7-1 at home and 4-4 on the road. Their ATS record vs. above .500 teams was 3-6-1, and it was 2-5 vs. below .500 teams. Their over/under record was 7-10, and their games averaged 35.4 points per game.
New England Patriots Stats
New England’s offense struggled mightily last season, finishing 31st in the league, averaging just 13.9 points per game. The Patriots were dead last in the league in home games, scoring only 12.1 points per game. On the road, they were 25th in the league, averaging 15.9 points per game. In terms of yards per game, the Patriots were 30th, averaging only 276.2 yards per contest.
The Patriots’ running game was 26th in attempts and 25th in yards, while their passing game was 28th in yards, averaging just 180.5 yards per game. New England struggled on third downs, converting only 30.2% of their third down attempts.
Demario Douglas, who had 561 receiving yards on 49 catches last year, is back for his 2nd season with the Patriots. New England’s wide receiver room is also welcoming rookie Javon Baker this year. K.J. Osborn, joining from the Vikings, is heading into his 5th season after finishing with 540 receiving yards and three touchdowns last year. Osborn averaged 4.5 fantasy points per game last season.
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New England’s defense was one of the best at defending the pass last season, giving up the 3rd fewest passing touchdowns. Their overall performance was highlighted by a 4th place ranking in defensive power metrics, and they allowed just 21.5 points per game, which was 14th in the league. The Patriots were tough on the ground, giving up the 6th fewest rushing touchdowns and ranking 1st in rushing yards per attempt.
The Patriots’ secondary allowed just 208.4 passing yards per game and held opposing quarterbacks to a collective passer rating of 85.15. Overall, they allowed 301.6 yards per game, the 6th lowest figure in the NFL. Additionally, New England defended the run well, allowing only 3.3 yards per attempt, which was the best in the league.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals were 9-8 last season, putting them 8th in the AFC and 4th in the AFC North. Despite going just 4-8 within the division, they excelled in non-conference games, going 5-0. When favored, they were 7-4, but as underdogs, they went 2-4. Cincinnati’s over/under record was 10-7, with their games averaging a combined 44.1 points per game.
Against the spread, the Bengals were 7-9-1, including a 4-4-1 mark at home and a 4-3-1 record as home favorites. On the road, they went 3-5 ATS. Against teams with winning records, they went 7-7 ATS, and they were 1-1-1 ATS against teams with losing records.
Cincinnati Bengals Stats
The Bengals were 5-0 in non-conference games last season, but struggled within their division, going 1-5 and finishing 4th in the AFC North. Overall, they were 9-8, placing them 8th in the AFC. Cincinnati was tough as home favorites, going 6-2 straight-up, but they were just 2-4 as the underdog. Against the spread, the Bengals were 7-9-1, including a 4-4-1 mark at home and a 4-3-1 mark as home favorites.
The Bengals’ over/under record was 10-7 last year, with their games averaging a combined 44.1 points per game. When favored, they were 7-4, and when they were the underdog, they were 2-4. Cincinnati’s record vs. the spread was 7-9-1.
Ja’Marr Chase, heading into his 4th season, is the key piece in the Bengals’ receiving group after putting up 1,216 yards and seven touchdowns last year. Tee Higgins, who played in 12 games, added 656 yards and five touchdowns. Trenton Irwin, who is also entering his 5th season, had 316 yards and one touchdown last year.
The Bengals’ defense allowed 374.6 yards per game last season, ranking 31st in the NFL. Despite this, they were able to force 26 takeaways, the 6th best figure in the league. Cincinnati’s defense was better at home, giving up 19.1 points per game, which was 9th best, compared to 26.5 points on the road (24th).
Their 22.6 points per game allowed placed them 20th in the league. Although they were 8th in quarterback hits and 11th in sacks, their overall defensive power ranking was 26th. Opponents were able to convert on 40.8% of their third down attempts against the Bengals.
New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Patriots are 3-1-1 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Bengals are 2-2-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Patriots are 4-6 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Bengals have gone 4-6 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Patriots’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 3-0.
- The Bengals’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Patriots vs. Bengals Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | +330 | +332 | +9.5 | +8.5 |
| Bengals | -432 | -431 | -9.5 | -8.5 |
4* Free Week 1 NFL Betting Prediction: Cincinnati -8.5
Let’s talk numbers: right now, the Bengals are -8.5 favorites, and I’m telling you, this line is gold for those who follow. The Bengals are coming off a stellar run, and at home, I fully expect them to handle the Patriots.
Yes, New England is always a wildcard, but their offense hasn’t exactly been projected to be firing on all cylinders. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is locked and loaded with Joe Burrow leading the charge. My expert call? Bengals cover the spread, and I’m seeing a 26-10 win here. With the total sitting at 40.5, don’t be shocked if this one leans towards the under.
Stay sharp, and keep checking back for more of my Week 1 free picks—this is just the beginning! If you want to start the season with a bang, take the Bengals to cover and run with it.
As for the over/under, with a line of 40.5 points, we have these teams combining for 36 points, making the UNDER our top pick.
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New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
The faces of picture day 2024 pic.twitter.com/xgw7KHNWcg
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) September 2, 2024
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