Free Week 7 Prediction: Patriots vs. Bears NFL Odds
Looking for New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears Free NFL Week 7 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Patriots taking on the Bears on Monday, October 24th, 2022 at Gillette Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 7 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this New England – Chicago matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 7
New England Patriots (3-3) vs. Chicago Bears (2-4)
Date: Monday, October 24th, 2022
Time: 8:15 PM EST
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
NFL Week 7 ATS Betting Lines: Patriots -7 (-110) | Bears +7 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 7 Moneyline Odds: Patriots N/A | Bears N/A
NFL Week 7 NFL Betting Total: O/U 39.5
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Old school football is on deck for Monday Night Football when the Bears travel to Foxborough for what should be a battle of the trenches.
Probably one of the more unexpected developments of this season is a quarterback controversy in New England. I don’t think anyone is surprised that Bill Belichick has created competition, up to the line of fomenting discord in his team, but the fact that Bailey Zappe has made it a conversation is what raises eyes.
New England invested a high pick in Mac Jones and to his credit, he played excellently in his rookie season. But being the man that Belichick is, he sees what the rest of the NFL will realize in the coming years: the NFL is currently under-investing in their backup spot, when the move is to actually invest more in that position.
It’s oddly reminiscent of the movie Whiplash when JK Simmons brings in another drummer after Myles Teller earned the part. As long as Bill can make Jones think his job is in trouble, he’ll get the best out of Mac.
The Bears are in a year of figuring out what pieces belong. A brand new GM and head coach, a second year quarterback, a makeshift offensive line and a defensive that’s average age is around 19 (trust me, bro) make this year a foundational building experiment. Chicago squandered their third win of the year, and a chance at a moral victory of being .500 despite so much going wrong to start the year.
Hey, there’s a reason the Pats are favored by 7.
New England Patriots
The New England conversation right now is Zappe-centric, but Rhamondre Stevenson’s start to the year deserves some recognition too. He’s currently 7th in rushing yards and helping lead the Pats to the 3rd-best EPA/rush in the NFL. This week they’ll draw Chicago’s rush defense that’s 27th in DVOA.
It would make sense then, that New England sticks with their rush-heavy approach but Zappe has been good enough that it can open up the pass. In his 34 attempts, he completed 24 for 309 and two scores. The Patriots’ cadre of pass catchers still doesn’t blow anyone away, but Chicago’s pass defense isn’t elite either.
New England dominated the turnover battle 4-1 which makes the final of 38-15 look a little less impressive, but Cleveland was never really in that game. It speaks to how the Pats controlled game flow. It takes two to tango though and the way Chicago has called their offense, I don’t expect a ton of scoring. 53 points were scored in Cleveland Sunday, largely due to the Browns’ aggressiveness down late.
An edge here that we can attribute to the defense is their ability to generate pressure. The Patriots currently rank 6th in the NFL in pressure rate, and we know that Chicago’s offensive line has been a sieve. They should be able to take advantage of the Bears’ dead last adjusted sack rate allowed.
Chicago Bears
To date, the Bears have been mostly a rushing offense. Fields was child-proofed for the first few weeks, wherein his passing stats through that time period could be compared to another QB’s single game performance.
Khalil Herbert and David Montgomery have done well in their attempts, but other teams are starting to catch on. I thought Chicago did a better job on Thursday night getting Fields’ rushing ability integrated into their play calls. It’s worth repeating: the best teams put their players in the best position to make a play.
Where Fields consistently struggles is snap to throw time. The Bears are incurring sacks not just due to a re-worked offensive line, but simply that Fields can’t make decisions quick enough. That spells doom against a Pats defense that we mentioned is generating boatloads of pressure.
Because of their struggles in both passing and predictably running, the Bears simply don’t have the ability to make a comeback once they’re down multiple scores. No one expected a pretty win-loss column, but it’s looking like they are finding much out about Fields, either.
Chicago is incredibly young on defense, but it doesn’t necessarily mean they’re bad. Jaquan Brisker and Kyler Gordon are two rookies that play nearly every single snap. The secondary battery mates have helped Chicago to the 14th best pass defense by DVOA. The Bears have generated the 8th most pressure in the NFL, so Zappe will need to process quickly.
NFL Betting Trends:
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago’s last 6 games when playing New England
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago’s last 6 games on the road
- New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England’s last 8 games at home
4* Free Week 7 NFL Betting Prediction: Patriots -7
I’m assuming we don’t need to evaluate your reading comprehension skills and you can tell where I’m headed with this pick. Bill Belichick won’t lose to a worse team, while being the better head coach. I’ve seen enough Bears football to know this is headed for another primetime loss where they score 6 points.
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