Free NFL Week 16 Pick: Patriots vs. Bills Odds
Looking for New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Patriots taking on the Bills on Sunday, December 22nd at the Highmark Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 16 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this New England Buffalo matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 16
(3-11) New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills (11-3)
Date: Sunday, December 22nd
Time: 4:25 ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park NY
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) New England +14 | Buffalo -14
NFL Moneyline Odds: New England +652 | Buffalo -999
NFL Betting Total: O/U 46.5
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Get ready for a classic AFC East showdown as the Patriots visit the Bills in Week 16! This storied rivalry, dating back to 1960, has seen 129 matchups, with New England dominating the all-time series 78-50-1.
However, the tides have shifted in recent years, and Buffalo has taken control, including a 27-21 win to close out last season.
When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Bills have the leg up at 2-1. However, against the spread the Patriots went 2-1.
The over/under record in these matchups was 3-0 on an average of 53 points per game.
Now, the Bills sit at 11-3, riding high with playoff ambitions, while the Patriots are slogging through a tough 3-11 campaign.
New England Patriots
Heading into week 16, the Patriots sit at 3-11 and have lost four straight games. They rank 26th in our NFL power rankings and have a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs. New England is 1-3 in the AFC East and 2-7 in conference play, putting them 4th in the division and 15th in the AFC. The Patriots are 1-5 at home and 2-6 on the road.
Against the spread, New England is 5-8-1, with an average scoring margin of -7.1 points per game. They have been the underdog in all of their games so far. Their O/U record is 9-5, with the over hitting in four straight games.
New England Patriots Stats
Heading into week 16, the Patriots rank 26th in our offensive power rankings. They are 28th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 17, and 29th in total yards per game with 292.4.
Despite ranking 19th in passing attempts, New England is last in the league in passing yards per game, with 173.1. On the ground, they rank 18th in rushing attempts and 13th in rushing yards per game, averaging 119.3.
Drake Maye has thrown for over 200 yards in each of his last three games, including a 19/23 performance for 202 yards and a touchdown in week 15 against the Cardinals.
The Patriots struggled on third down in that game, failing to convert any of their six attempts, but they did score on two of their three red zone trips. Kendrick Bourne led the team with 44 receiving yards, and Rhamondre Stevenson had 69 rushing yards on 13 carries.
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In their 30-17 loss to the Cardinals, the Patriots gave up 395 yards of total offense. They struggled to defend the run, allowing 163 rushing yards on 32 attempts.
Despite their issues against the run, New England’s defense held the Cardinals without a passing touchdown, giving up 232 yards through the air and forcing an 78.1% completion percentage on Arizona.
The Patriots’ defense also struggled to get off the field, allowing the Cardinals to convert on 66.7% of their third down attempts. They failed to record a sack and lost the tackles for loss and quarterback hit differential in the game.
Buffalo Bills
Heading into week 16, the Bills are 11-3, putting them 2nd in our NFL power rankings and giving them a 100% chance of winning the AFC East. Buffalo is 3-0 in division games and 7-2 against the AFC.
They are 6-0 at home but 5-3 on the road. After a week 14 loss to the Rams, the Bills bounced back with a 48-42 win over the Lions in week 15. They were 2.5-point underdogs in that game, but the win clinched the division for them.
Buffalo has a +9.6 scoring margin and is 9-5 against the spread this season. As favorites, they are 7-3 ATS, and they are 2-2 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 9-5, with the over hitting in their last two games.
The average O/U line in Bills games is 47 points, and their games have averaged 53.9 points.
Buffalo Bills Stats
Josh Allen has been on fire over the past three weeks, posting passer ratings of 122 in week 15, 117 in week 14, and 141 in week 13. In his latest outing, he threw for 362 yards and 2 touchdowns without an interception against the Lions.
Buffalo’s offensive line has done a great job protecting Allen, as he hasn’t been sacked in the last three games.
James Cook rushed for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns on 14 carries in week 15, and Ty Johnson led the team in receiving with 5 catches for 114 yards. The Bills scored 13 points in the 4th quarter against the Lions and converted 5 of 7 red zone opportunities.
Buffalo’s defense gave up 473 passing yards to the Lions in their most recent game, but still came out on top in a high-scoring 48-42 win. The Bills struggled to defend the pass, allowing 38 completions and five passing touchdowns.
Despite giving up over 500 yards of total offense (521), they did manage to sack the quarterback three times and had seven more QB hits than the Lions.
The Bills’ run defense was actually quite good, allowing just 48 yards on 15 attempts. However, they struggled on third down, allowing the Lions to convert 46.2% of their third down chances.
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Patriots are 2-3 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Bills are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Patriots are 5-5 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Bills have gone 6-4 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Patriots’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Bills’ have an over/under record of 3-0 in their last 3 games at home.
Patriots vs. Bills Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | +280 | +659 | +7.5 | +14 |
| Bills | -355 | -1013 | -7.5 | -14 |
4* Free Week 16 NFL Betting Prediction: Buffalo -14
The stakes might not be equal, but there’s plenty to analyze in this divisional clash.
Buffalo’s high-powered offense has been on a tear, winning eight of their last nine games outright and covering the spread in four of their last five.
At -14 on the spread, oddsmakers clearly expect the Bills to dominate. Meanwhile, New England’s struggles are glaring—they’ve gone just 2-11 straight up in their last 13 games and 1-6 on the road.
With the Patriots’ offense sputtering and the Bills’ defense standing tall, the numbers heavily favor Buffalo in this matchup.
With the point spread sitting at 14 in favor of the Patriots, there is a lot of value in taking the Bills to cover at home in this week 16 matchup. Our projected final score is 30-10 in favor of the Bills, making them our best bet to cover at the current line.
For an over/under pick, we lean towards taking the under, with a projected combined score of 40 points and the O/U line at 46.5 points.
The rivalry history adds a layer of intrigue, but Buffalo’s recent dominance and New England’s road woes set the stage for another big day in Orchard Park.
Buckle up for some late-season divisional drama!
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New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
!!
We’re dropping a new uniform combination this Sunday.#NEvsBUF | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/nxZkjUTy0R
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 17, 2024
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