Free NFL Week 5 Pick: Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds
Looking for Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Dolphins taking on the Patriots on Sunday, October 6th at the Gillette Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 5 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Miami New England matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 5
(1-3) Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots (1-3)
Date: Sunday, October 6th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Miami +1 | New England -1
NFL Moneyline Odds: Miami -108 | New England -112
NFL Betting Total: O/U 35.5
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Get ready for Week 5, NFL fans, because this Dolphins-Patriots matchup is about to heat up your Sunday! We’ve got free NFL handicapping picks coming at you all season, and this Miami-New England showdown is one you don’t want to miss. Historically, the Pats have dominated at Gillette, going 17-5 against Miami in Foxborough. But the Dolphins are no slouches either, owning a 62-55 edge in the all-time series.
Last season, Miami swept New England, covering the spread in both matchups and hitting the over in their second meeting. But this is 2024, and things are looking different.
The Dolphins won both of their matchups against the Patriots last season, sweeping the series 2-0. In the first game, Miami, who were -2 point favorites, won 24-17, and in the second game, they won 31-17 while being favored by 7.5 points.
The over/under line for the second game was 46.5 points, and the teams combined for 48 points.
The first game’s over/under line was also 46.5 points.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins’ 31-12 loss to the Titans dropped their record to 1-3 for the season. Miami was favored by -2.5 but lost straight-up by 19 points. The Titans led 9-3 at halftime, and Miami never really threatened in the second half, as Tennessee outscored them 12-6 in the 4th quarter.
Miami’s only touchdown came with 3:40 remaining in the 4th quarter when Tyler Huntley rushed for a 1-yard score. The Dolphins added another touchdown with 30 seconds left, but by then, the Titans had already put the game out of reach with a 29-6 lead heading into the 4th quarter.
Miami Dolphins Stats
The Dolphins’ offense struggled in their 31-12 loss to the Titans, managing just 13 first downs and 78 yards passing. Miami’s running game gained 106 yards on 30 attempts, but the team failed to score a touchdown through the air. Tyler Huntley, filling in at quarterback, threw for 96 yards and ran for 40 yards, including a touchdown and a 20-yard run.
On third down, the Dolphins converted only 16.7% of their chances. Jaylen Waddle was the leading receiver with 36 yards. Huntley was sacked twice and finished with a passer rating of 73.
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In their 31-12 loss to the Titans, the Dolphins’ defense held Tennessee to just 102 passing yards on 12 completions. However, Miami struggled to stop the run, allowing 142 yards on 40 attempts. The Dolphins’ offense managed just 244 total yards. Miami’s defense did not allow a passing touchdown and limited the Titans to a 57.1% completion percentage. They also performed well on third downs, allowing just a 16.7% conversion rate.
Miami’s defense came away with one interception and recorded one sack in the game.
New England Patriots
The Patriots are now 1-3 after a 30-13 loss to the 49ers. New England fell behind early, with the 49ers leading 6-0 after the first quarter. The Patriots managed a field goal late in the 2nd quarter, but the 49ers added two touchdowns to take a commanding 20-3 lead at halftime. New England did find the endzone in the 3rd quarter with a touchdown from Austin Hooper, but the 49ers responded with a touchdown of their own to keep the game out of reach.
After the Patriots closed the gap to 27-13 early in the 4th quarter, the 49ers put the game away with another touchdown. Jordan Mason’s 4-yard touchdown run in the 3rd was the Patriots’ last score. The Patriots were 10.5-point underdogs heading into the game, and their 17-point loss was not enough to cover the spread.
New England Patriots Stats
In their 30-13 loss to the 49ers, the Patriots’ offense struggled to move the ball, finishing with just 12 first downs and 143 yards passing. They were held to 73 yards on 24 rushing attempts, averaging only 3.0 yards per attempt. Jacoby Brissett, filling in at quarterback, was sacked six times and threw for 168 yards, completing 19 of 32 passes, with one touchdown and one interception.
Rhamondre Stevenson was the leading rusher with 43 yards, while also adding 19 receiving yards on four catches. Antonio Gibson led the Patriots in receiving with 67 yards, 50 of which came on one reception. New England converted only 31.2% of their third down attempts.
Despite allowing just 15 completions to the 49ers, the Patriots gave up 283 passing yards in their 30-13 loss to San Francisco. The Patriots’ defense struggled to defend the run, giving up 148 rushing yards on 32 attempts. Overall, the Patriots allowed 431 total yards in the game.
New England’s defense did come up with one interception and held the 49ers to a 55.6% completion percentage. However, they allowed a big 10.5 yards per attempt figure. On third downs, the 49ers converted 53.8% of their chances.
Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Dolphins are 0-5 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Dolphins are 4-6 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Patriots have gone 4-6 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Dolphins’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Patriots’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | -185 | -107 | -3.5 | +1 |
| Patriots | +154 | -114 | +3.5 | -1 |
4* Free Week 5 NFL Betting Prediction: New England -1
Both teams are 1-3, and the odds are razor-thin, with the Patriots as slight 1-point favorites at home. The total is set at 35.5, which might look low, but with Miami’s totals going under in seven of their last nine, it makes sense.
If you’re betting this week, keep an eye on Jacoby Brissett and Rhamondre Stevenson. They’re key to New England’s game plan, and I’m backing them to get the job done this time around.
Our prediction for this week five matchup between the Patriots and Dolphins is a 24-17 win for the Patriots. Even though the Dolphins are the slight favorite at +1, we like the Patriots to not only win but cover the spread as home favorites.
As for the over/under, we have these teams combining for 41 points, making the over a good play with the line sitting at 35.5.
Stay tuned for more free picks and buckle up for a wild Week 5!
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Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Jahlani Tavai back in Cali 🎙️ pic.twitter.com/N5MC6hS07a
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) October 2, 2024
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