Free NFL Pick: Dolphins vs. Chargers Odds
Looking for Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers free NFL Week 1 regular season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Dolphins taking on the Chargers on Sunday, September 10th at the SoFi Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 1 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Miami Los Angeles matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 1
(0-0) Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers (0-0)
Date: Sunday, September 10th
Time: 4:25 ET
Venue: SoFi Stadium
NFL Week 1 ATS Betting Lines: Miami +3 | Los Angeles -3
Regular Season Week 1 NFL Moneyline Odds: Miami +136 | Los Angeles -162
NFL Betting Total: O/U 50.5
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The Chargers picked up a 23-17 over the Dolphins in their only head-to-head matchup last season.
With their combined 40 points, the Dolphins and Chargers surpassed the over/under line of 54.5. The Chargers covered the spread in this matchup. Offensively, the Chargers finished with 350 passing yards and 82 rushing yards in their win over the Dolphins.
As for Miami, they ended the game with 219 yards of total offense.
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Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins wrapped up last season with a 9-8 record and had their season end with a Wild-Card round defeat to the Bills (34-31). Their road record last year was 3-7, while they held a 6-2 record at home.
In the AFC-East, the Dolphins finished 2nd on 3-4 record in games within their division.
Miami Dolphins Stats
Offensively, the Dolphins averaged 23.8 points per game in 2022, putting them 11th in the NFL. In the passing game, they finished 11th in passing attempts and averaged 261.1 yards per game through the air.
When looking at their running game, the Dolphins were 23rd in yards per attempt.
The Dolphins’ defense finished the season slightly below the league average at 24.1 points per game, which was 23rd in the NFL. For the season, opponents averaged 342.6 yards per contest (19th).
Miami was 14th in takeaways and ended the season with 40 sacks (9th).
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers wrapped up last season with a 10-7 record and had their season end with a Wild-Card round defeat to the Jaguars (31-30). Their road record last year was 5-5, while they held a 5-3 record at home.
In the AFC-West, the Chargers finished 2nd on 2-4 record in games within their division.
Los Angeles Chargers Stats
Los Angeles closed out last season as the 12th ranked offense in terms of points per game (23.4). In the passing game, the Chargers averaged 268.7 while sitting 2nd in attempts. For the season, they were 13th in terms of sacks allowed and 17th in quarterback hits allowed.
In the running game, Los Angeles averaged 88.4 rushing yards per contest.
On defense, the Chargers finished the season ranked 22nd in points allowed at 23.1 points per contest. On the road, Los Angeles gave up 23.4 points per game compared to 22.6 at home.
In terms of yardage, the Chargers gave up 348.6 yards per game and finished the season 5th in turnovers.
Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Dolphins are 3-2 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Chargers are 2-2-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Dolphins are 5-5 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Chargers have gone 7-3 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Dolphins’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 3-0.
- The Chargers’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Dolphins vs. Chargers Line Movement
Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Dolphins | +110 | +136 | +2.5 | +3 |
Chargers | -134 | -162 | -2.5 | -3 |
4* Free Week 1 NFL Betting Prediction: Miami +3
Last season, teams that were favored against the spread, went on to cover at a rate of just 44.6%.
Los Angeles has a track record of falling short of anticipated prognosticated levels, and I believe that Miami’s acquisition of Fangio to head their D could set the stage for an upset. He’ll have his unit ready to go.
The primary factor in this upset is the Chargers’ struggles in defending the run, as they ranked last in yards per carry last season.
Consequently, this presents an ideal opportunity for Tua and Mostert to exploit the perimeter. If Miami can establish a successful running game, play-action will play a pivotal role in this matchup.
Last season, when Tua started and completed games, the Dolphins secured an 8-4 record, and it’s expected that their 24th-ranked defense from the previous year will show significant improvement.
Skeptical? Stay tuned and see for yourself.
I like the value in grabbing the Dolphins at +3 in their matchup vs. the Chargers.
I’m laying off the total.
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Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
herbo went turbo pic.twitter.com/VIAMjuVAix
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) September 7, 2023
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