Free NFL Wild Card Round Pick: Dolphins vs. Chiefs Odds
Looking for Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs free Wild Card Round picks & NFL odds? NFL playoff betting sees the Dolphins taking on the Chiefs on Saturday, January 13th at the Arrowhead Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Super Wildcard Weekend games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Miami Kansas City matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Wild Card Round
(11-6, 10-7 ATS) Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6, 9-7-1 ATS)
2024 Super Wildcard Weekend
Date: Saturday, January 13th
Time: 8:00 ET
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City MO
NFL Wild Card Round ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Miami +3.5 | Kansas City -3.5
Wild Card Moneyline Odds: Miami +149 | Kansas City -183
NFL Betting Total: O/U 43.5
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During their first meeting in Frankfurt, Germany in the first ever NFL Frankfurt game, the Chiefs secured a 21-14 win against Dolphins. As they entered the game, the Chiefs were considered underdogs with a +0.5 point spread but managed to secure an ATS win.
The over/under line going into the game was 51.5 points, which the teams fell short of.
As they face off on Super Wildcard Weekend 2024, the Dolphins and Chiefs have met 32 times, including 3 postseason battles, resulting in a dead-even rivalry, with each team claiming 16 wins.
Let’s take a walk down memory lane. The Dolphins’ perfect 3-0 playoff record against the Chiefs has historical significance. It all started with a devastating loss etched in history – a thrilling double-overtime victory on Christmas Day in 1971, 27-24. Older Chiefs fans don’t like that day.
This week, we’re preparing for an intense winter clash in Kansas City. The city is under a winter storm warning, expecting substantial snow earlier in the week, with more anticipated on Friday (70% chance of precipitation).
The forecast says that on Saturday night players are going to face icy conditions with wind chills plunging below zero.
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Miami Dolphins
This season, the Dolphins hold the 2nd position in the AFC-East with an overall record of 11-6. Their non-conference game record is 4-1, and in AFC action, they are AFC. When it comes to the spread, the Dolphins have a 10-7 record.
After trailing by seven at halftime, the Dolphins struggled in the second half and ended up losing to the Bills.
The Dolphins’ defense allowed a total of 473 yards with 128 coming on the ground and 345 through the air. Offensively, the Dolphins averaged 5 for a total of 275 yards.
Miami’s 7 point loss also resulted in a loss vs. the spread as 2.5 point underdogs. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 173 yards while completing 63% of his passes and throwing for 173.
Tagovailoa threw for one touchdown.
Miami Dolphins Stats
On offense, the Dolphins finished with 275 yards against the Bills. When it came to third downs, the Dolphins had a 40% conversion rate. Leading the ground game was De’Von Achane with 56 yards, and Tua contributed 173 passing yards.
Miami’s offense is 2nd in the league, with an average of 29.2 points per contest.
Defensively, Miami is 21st in points allowed. So far, opponents are averaging 23 points per game against them on 318.3 yards allowed per contest.
This game adds another layer of revenge as Tyreek Hill eagerly returns to Arrowhead Stadium for this playoff showdown. The Chiefs effectively neutralized him in Germany earlier this season, and he had a rather subdued performance against the Bills in Week 18.
Kansas City Chiefs
So far this season, the Chiefs are an above .500 team at home at 5-4. Heading into Wild Card weekend, they are 1st in the AFC-West on an overall record of 11-6. On the road, Kansas City has gone 6-2 thus far.
The Chiefs have a 9-7-1 record against the spread this season. So far this season, their average scoring margin is +4.5.
Key to the Chiefs’ win, was the fact that they got off to a good start in the first-quarter. Kansas City scored 7 points in the opening period.
Overall, the Chiefs had 268 yards of offense compared to the 353 at 353. Kansas City went into the game as the underdog (+3.5), giving them a straight-up and ATS win.
Blaine Gabbert did not throw or run for a touchdown, while completing 15 of 30 passes for 154 yards.
Gabbert ended the game with a passer rating of 51.
Kansas City Chiefs Stats
Versus the Chargers, the Chiefs turned to the run 28 times, and it was La’Mical Perine who led the way with 76 yards. Meanwhile, Gabbert finished with 30 pass attempts, resulting in 154 yards and a passer rating of 51.
Offensively, the Chiefs have an average of 21.8 points per game, which is 13th in the NFL.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Chiefs give up an average of 176.5 passing yards and 113.2 rushing yards per game. Looking at their sack numbers, Kansas City is currently ranked 2nd in the league.
So far, they are giving up 17.3 points per game and 289.8 yards.
Kansas City had a strong start, winning six consecutive games after a Week 1 loss to the Lions. However, they closed the season with a 3-3 record.
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Dolphins are 1-4 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Chiefs are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Dolphins are 6-4 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Chiefs have gone 6-3-1 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Dolphins’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 3-0.
- The Chiefs’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Dolphins vs. Chiefs Line Movement
Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Dolphins | +148 | +151 | +3.5 | +3.5 |
Chiefs | -182 | -187 | -3.5 | -3.5 |
4* Free Wildcard NFL Betting Prediction: Kansas City -3.5
During the match held in Germany, neither of the two quarterbacks delivered outstanding performances. With the anticipated cold weather in Kansas City this week, we might witness a repetition of these subpar statistics. Both Mahomes and Tagovailoa, recorded their season-low passing yards in Germany (up to that point). Mahomes managed 185 yards and secured two touchdowns, whereas Tagovailoa threw for 193 yards and only managed one touchdown.
My X-Factor this week. Short, quick throws to move the chains. Fact: In his playoff career alongside Mahomes, Travis Kelce has amassed 110 receptions for 1,254 yards and scored an impressive 15 TD’s in 14 games. Can Miami’s defense stop these two? I say NO!
I believe Kansas City’s rushing offense will exploit the vulnerabilities in Miami’s defense, which had difficulties defending the run in their last outing vs. the stout Bills offensive line. Miami is a warm weather team, I just don’t think they’ll have enough to take down the Chiefs in KC.
Some intriguing NFL trends to note: Miami has struggled, going 1-4 SU in their last 5 matchups against Kansas City, and holding a 2-5 ATS record when playing on the road against them.
Furthermore, Miami is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against AFC opponents and has a 2-7 SU record in January games. On the other hand, Kansas City boasts a strong track record, with a 14-6 SU record in their last 20 games and a 5-2 ATS record when hosting Miami.
KC holds an impressive 15-3 SU record against AFC opponents in their last 18 games.
I’m backing Kansas City on the spread, with the line at -3.5. At 43.5, we have this game going over with a combined 47 points.
Miami has been consistently hitting the OVER in their road games, with 12 of their last 16 matchups surpassing the total.
Plus, they’ve maintained this trend on Saturdays, as all of their last 5 Saturday games have gone OVER as well.
Dolphins Chiefs NFL Handicapping
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Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Huddle up, Chiefs Kingdom… we’ve got a postseason story to tell. pic.twitter.com/jXEVtFPzFR
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 9, 2024
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