Free NFL Week 7 Pick: Dolphins vs. Colts Odds
Looking for Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Dolphins taking on the Colts on Sunday, October 20th at the Lucas Oil Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 7 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Miami Indianapolis matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 7
(2-3) Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts (3-3)
Date: Sunday, October 20th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis IN
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Miami +3.5 | Indianapolis -3.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Miami +155 | Indianapolis -189
NFL Betting Total: O/U 43.5
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Week 7 NFL Football is here, and we’ve got a juicy showdown between the Miami Dolphins (2-3) and the Indianapolis Colts (3-3). If you’re looking for some betting excitement, this matchup offers plenty of intrigue, especially for those diving into the lines.
Last season, the Dolphins and Colts did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Colts have the leg up at 2-1.
However, against the spread the Dolphins went 2-1.
The over/under record in these matchups was 1-2 on an average of 41 points per game.
Miami Dolphins
Heading into week 7, the Dolphins are 2-3 and rank 31st in our NFL power rankings. After three straight losses, Miami bounced back with a 15-10 win over the Patriots in week 5. They were 2-point favorites in the game and covered the spread, bringing their ATS record to 1-4 this season.
According to our projections, the Dolphins have a 9% chance of making the playoffs and a 1.3% chance of winning the AFC East. Their average scoring margin this season is -10.6 points per game, and their O/U record is 1-4.
Miami Dolphins Stats
Heading into week 7, the Dolphins are 29th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 12, and rank 23rd in yards per game with 302.4. They are 26th in passing yards per game (185.6) on 32.2 attempts per game, which ranks 13th. On the ground, Miami ranks 18th in rushing yards per game (116.8) on 29.6 attempts per game, 9th in the league. On 3rd down, they have struggled, converting just 30.3% of their attempts, ranking 26th in the NFL. Despite being 15th in red zone attempts, they have been efficient, converting at a rate of 109.1%, which ranks 2nd in the league.
In week 5, Tyler Huntley threw for 194 yards on 18/31 passing, with 1 interception. Jaylen Wright led the team in rushing with 86 yards on 13 carries, while Tyreek Hill had 6 receptions for 69 yards. Miami scored 6 points in both the 3rd and 4th quarters, after being shut out in the 2nd quarter. They converted 2 of 11 3rd downs and went 1/2 in the red zone.
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In their 15-10 win over the Patriots, the Dolphins’ defense limited New England to just 148 passing yards and 151 yards per attempt. They were tough on third downs, allowing only a 30.8% conversion rate, and held the Patriots to 52.9% completions. Despite struggling against the run, giving up 151 yards on just 19 attempts, the Dolphins allowed only 299 total yards.
Miami’s defense also came away with two sacks and won the quarterback hit battle by four. This pressure helped keep the Patriots out of the endzone, as Miami didn’t allow a single passing touchdown in the game.
Indianapolis Colts
Heading into week 7, the Colts sit at 3-3, putting them 2nd in the AFC South. After a week 5 loss to the Jaguars, Indianapolis bounced back with a 20-17 road win over the Titans in week 6. The Colts were 2.5-point underdogs in that game, but they came away with the win, bringing their record against the spread to 5-1 this season.
Indianapolis currently has a 51.8% chance of making the playoffs and a 13.8% chance of winning the division. In our power rankings, the Colts are 17th going into week 7. Their O/U record is 3-3, with their games averaging 46.3 points compared to an average line of 43.4.
Indianapolis Colts Stats
Heading into week 7, the Colts are 15th in our offensive power rankings. They sit 14th in the NFL in points per game (23.2) and 13th in yards per game (336.8). Indianapolis ranks 7th in 3rd-down conversions, with a 42.7% success rate, and they are 6th in red zone attempts, but they have struggled to convert, ranking 22nd in the league with a 19% conversion rate.
Joe Flacco has started the last three games for the Colts, throwing for 189 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 6, with one interception. He had a passer rating of 77 in that game, after posting a 121 rating in week 5 and 105 in week 4. Josh Downs led the Colts in receiving in week 6, with 7 catches for 66 yards and a touchdown.
In their 20-17 win over the Titans, the Colts’ defense gave up 146 rushing yards on 28 attempts, including a 66-yard touchdown run to Derrick Henry. Despite this, they held Tennessee to just 3.5 yards per attempt in the passing game. The Colts allowed only 95 passing yards on 16 completions, with one touchdown and came up with one interception.
Indianapolis’ defense held the Titans to 36.4% on third down but didn’t record any sacks in the game. They also allowed 59.3% completions to Tennessee and finished with a +2 advantage in QB hits.
Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Dolphins are 0-5 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Colts are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Dolphins are 4-6 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Colts have gone 6-4 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Dolphins’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 0-3.
- The Colts’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Dolphins vs. Colts Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | -115 | +155 | -1 | +3.5 |
| Colts | -105 | -189 | +1 | -3.5 |
4* Free Week 7 NFL Betting Prediction: Miami +3.5
The Colts are slight favorites, laying 3.5 points, and if you’re playing the moneyline, Indianapolis is at -189 with Miami sitting at a tempting +155. The over/under is set at a modest 43.5, and for good reason—points might be tough to come by. Miami’s offense has struggled without Tagovailoa, hitting the under in 6 of their last 7 games.
In fact, Miami hasn’t exactly lit up the scoreboard against AFC South opponents either, with the total going under in 9 of their last 12. The Colts? Similar story. They’ve gone under in 4 of their last 6 against the Dolphins.
With both teams stumbling for offensive consistency—Richardson’s flashes of brilliance balanced by inexperience, and Miami’s QB carousel adding to their woes—don’t expect a high-scoring thriller.
This one’s shaping up to be a grind, where field goals might steal the show. Keep your eyes on the under, and if you like a little dog action, Miami with the points looks tasty in this tight matchup.
With the line sitting at 43.5 points, we really like the under for this week seven matchup between the Dolphins and Colts. Our projections have these teams finishing with 31 combined points, making the under a great value pick for this game.
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Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
It's Dallas Clark Ring of Honor Week. pic.twitter.com/ClrNbNI7Zo
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) October 16, 2024
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