Free NFL Week 13 Pick: Dolphins vs. Packers Odds
Looking for Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Dolphins taking on the Packers on Thursday, November 28th at the Lambeau Field. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 13 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Miami Green Bay Thanksgiving NFL matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 13
Thanksgiving NFL
(5-6) Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers (8-3)
Date: Thursday, November 28th
Time: 8:20 ET
Venue: Lambeau Field, Green Bay WI
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Miami +3.5 | Green Bay -3.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Miami +153 | Green Bay -182
NFL Betting Total: O/U 47.5
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Thanksgiving football at Lambeau Field? Sign me up! The Dolphins and Packers square off under the lights in what promises to be an intriguing Week 13 clash, blending tradition with high-stakes drama.
Green Bay enters the game with an 8-3 record, a solid favorite at -3.5, and a storied history of Thanksgiving matchups, though their last turkey day outing in 2015 ended in a humbling loss to the Bears.
Meanwhile, Miami, sitting at 5-6, has momentum on their side, covering the spread in four of their last five games, while Green Bay has struggled against the number, going 1-4 ATS in their last five.
When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Packers have the leg up at 3-0. The Packers also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0.
These games averaged a combined total of 46 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
The Dolphins have historically owned this rivalry, winning 10 of the 16 meetings, but the Packers have taken four of the last five head-to-head matchups
Miami Dolphins
After a week 9 loss to the Bills, the Dolphins have bounced back with three straight wins, including a 34-15 victory over the Patriots in week 12. Miami covered the 7.5-point spread in that game and also hit the over, with the teams combining for 49 points. The Dolphins are now 5-6 and sit 2nd in the AFC East, with a 19.1% chance of making the playoffs according to our projections.
Miami ranks 16th in our power rankings heading into week 13. They have an average scoring margin of -1.9 points per game and are 5-6 against the spread, with four consecutive ATS wins. Their O/U record is 5-6, with the over hitting in two straight games.
Miami Dolphins Stats
Our offensive power rankings have Miami sitting 20th in the NFL, and they are 22nd in scoring, with 19.5 points per game. They rank 19th in passing yards per game (207.1) and 16th in rushing yards (116.8), while their 41.8% third-down conversion rate is 10th in the league. Miami ranks 14th in red zone conversion percentage and 12th in red zone attempts.
Tua Tagovailoa has been on fire, throwing for 317 yards and 4 touchdowns in week 12, following his 288-yard, 3-touchdown performance in week 11. Jaylen Waddle led the team with 8 catches for 144 yards in week 12, and De’Von Achane had 32 rushing yards on 10 carries.
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In their most recent game, the Dolphins’ defense allowed just 182 passing yards on 22 completions to the Patriots. Miami’s defense came away with four sacks and held New England to just a 21.4% conversion rate on third down. The Dolphins’ secondary also picked off one pass and limited the Patriots to 15 points in a 34-15 victory.
On the ground, the Dolphins gave up 86 rushing yards on 21 attempts. They also won the QB hit differential by six and had one more tackle for loss than the Patriots. The Dolphins’ defense limited New England to 4.1 yards per attempt in the running game.
Green Bay Packers
With a 28-point win over the 49ers in week 12, the Packers improved to 8-3 and extended their winning streak to two games. The victory puts Green Bay 6th in our NFL power rankings and gives them a 97.4% chance of making the playoffs. However, they still rank 3rd in the NFC North with a 1-2 division record.
Against the spread, the Packers are 5-6 this season, including a 3-4 record as favorites. Their average scoring margin is +5.9 points per game. In terms of the over/under, Green Bay’s O/U record is 5-5-1, with their games averaging 46.5 points per contest.
Green Bay Packers Stats
Heading into week 13, the Packers’ offense is ranked 9th in our power rankings. They are 8th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 26.2 points per game, and 5th in yards per game with 381.9. Green Bay has leaned heavily on the run game, ranking 4th in rushing attempts and 3rd in rushing yards per game (151.6). On the other hand, they are 26th in passing attempts, averaging 230.3 passing yards per game.
In week 12, the Packers scored 38 points in a win over the 49ers, including 14 in the 4th quarter. Jordan Love threw for 163 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Josh Jacobs rushed for 106 yards and 3 touchdowns. Romeo Doubs led the team with 54 receiving yards, but he will miss week 13 due to a concussion.
In their 38-10 win over the 49ers, the Packers’ defense was outstanding, holding San Francisco to just 44 yards rushing on 16 attempts. They defended the pass well too, allowing only 197 yards through the air. The 49ers managed just one touchdown and were limited to a 30% conversion rate on third down. Green Bay also came away with one interception and two sacks in the game.
The Packers’ defense really limited the big plays, as the 49ers averaged just 2.8 yards per rush and 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Green Bay also held the 49ers to a 58.6% completion rate on their passes and won the battle on third down, allowing just a 30% conversion rate.
Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Dolphins are 2-3 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Packers are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Dolphins are 5-5 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Packers have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Dolphins’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Packers’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Dolphins vs. Packers Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | +140 | +153 | +3 | +3.5 |
| Packers | -165 | -181 | -3 | -3.5 |
4* Free Week 13 NFL Betting Prediction: Miami +3.5
Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Dolphins to cover as road underdogs in this week 13 matchup between the Packers and Dolphins. Right now, the point spread lines have the Packers at -3.5, and with our projected score being 26-24 in favor of Green Bay, we like Miami to cover at +3.5.
What makes this game even juicier? The freezing Lambeau temps. Tua Tagovailoa has yet to win in sub-40-degree conditions, starting his NFL career 0-4 in chilly games.
I think this could be the day he turns the tide. Miami’s offense, spearheaded by their red-hot tight end Jonnu Smith, presents a nightmare matchup for a Packers defense that has been shredded by opposing tight ends all season.
For an over/under pick, we are leaning towards taking the OVER, with a projected combined score of 50 points and the O/U line sitting at 47.5 points.
For Green Bay, the stakes are clear: they need to tighten up on defense and rely on their home-field magic to keep the Dolphins’ balanced attack in check. But don’t sleep on Miami’s ability to make this a nail-biter.
The betting total is set at 47.5, and with both teams having plenty to play for, expect fireworks on a cold, classic Thanksgiving evening at Lambeau.
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Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Get your stretchy pants and cheesehead ready#MIAvsGB pic.twitter.com/xT7436ZVW3
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) November 28, 2024
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