Free NFL Week 17 Pick: Dolphins vs. Browns Odds
Looking for Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Dolphins taking on the Browns on Sunday, December 29th at the Huntington Bank Field. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 17 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Miami Cleveland matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 17
(7-8) Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns (3-12)
Date: Sunday, December 29th
Time: 4:05 ET
Venue: Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland OH
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Miami -6.5 | Cleveland +6.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Miami -296 | Cleveland +240
NFL Betting Total: O/U 40
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But over the last three times playing each other, the Dolphins have a record of 2-1. However, against the spread the Browns went 2-1.
The over/under record in these matchups was 3-0 on an average of 58 points per game.
Miami Dolphins
With a 7-8 record, the Dolphins have a 8.3% chance of making the playoffs, according to our projections. Miami ranks 14th in our NFL power rankings and sits 2nd in the AFC East. In division games, they are 3-2, and they have a 5-5 record against conference opponents. The Dolphins are 5-3 at home but just 2-5 on the road.
Miami bounced back from a week 15 loss to the Texans by defeating the 49ers 29-17 in week 16. The Dolphins were 1.5-point underdogs in this game, and the teams combined for 46 points, going over the 44-point line. After this win, Miami’s O/U record is 7-8, and they are 6-9 against the spread.
Miami Dolphins Stats
Heading into week 17, the Dolphins rank 17th in our offensive power rankings. They are 23rd in the NFL in scoring, with 20.3 points per game, and average 327.9 yards per game, which ranks 17th. Miami is 15th in passing yards per game (222.1) and 24th in rushing yards per game (105.7). They rank 17th in the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage and are 13th in red zone attempts, converting 26.1% of their trips inside the 20-yard line.
Tua Tagovailoa bounced back from a 3-interception game in week 15, posting a passer rating of 92 in week 16, with 215 yards and a touchdown on 22/34 passing. De’Von Achane had a big game, rushing for 120 yards on 17 carries and adding 6 receptions for 70 yards. Miami scored 10 points in the 4th quarter against the 49ers in week 16.
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In their 29-17 win over the 49ers, the Dolphins’ defense gave up 374 yards, with 293 of those coming through the air. They did a good job on third downs, allowing just a 38.5% conversion rate, and they also came up with three sacks and one interception. The Dolphins’ defense also held the 49ers to 4.5 yards per attempt on 18 rushing attempts.
Miami’s defense gave up 26 completions to the 49ers, who finished with a 65% completion rate. Despite giving up some yardage, the Dolphins defended the big play well, as the 49ers averaged 7.3 yards per attempt.
Cleveland Browns
Heading into week 17, the Browns are on a four-game losing streak, dropping their record to 3-12. After a week 12 win over the Steelers, Cleveland has since lost to the Broncos, Steelers, Chiefs, and Bengals, including an 18-point loss to Cincinnati in week 16. The Browns were 10-point underdogs in that game, and the 30 combined points fell short of the 46-point line.
With no playoff chances, Cleveland is 23rd in our power rankings. They are 4-11 against the spread this season, including four straight ATS losses. Their O/U record is 6-9, with the under hitting in three consecutive games.
Cleveland Browns Stats
Heading into week 17, the Browns rank 32nd in our offensive power rankings, averaging 16.3 points per game, which is 30th in the NFL. They lead the league in passing attempts per game (38.7) but sit 19th in passing yards, with 211.3 per game. On the ground, they rank 27th in rushing yards per game, with 95.9, on 22.9 attempts per contest.
In week 16, Dorian Thompson-Robinson threw for 157 yards (20/34) with 2 interceptions against the Bengals. Jerome Ford led the rushing attack with 92 yards on 11 carries, while David Njoku had 8 catches for 66 yards. Cleveland scored all 6 of their points in the 3rd quarter, converting 3 of 12 third-down attempts.
In their 24-6 loss to the Bengals, the Browns’ defense gave up 210 passing yards on 23 completions. The Bengals were efficient through the air, completing 76.7% of their passes and finishing with three passing touchdowns. Despite this, Cleveland’s defense did manage to sack the quarterback four times.
On the ground, the Browns allowed 116 rushing yards on just 22 attempts, with Cincinnati averaging 5.3 yards per attempt. Cleveland also struggled in defending the pass, allowing the Bengals to gain 7 yards per attempt. Additionally, the Browns allowed the Bengals to convert on 36.4% of their third down attempts.
Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Dolphins are 3-2 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Dolphins are 4-6 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Browns have gone 2-8 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Dolphins’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 0-3.
- The Browns’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Dolphins vs. Browns Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | +110 | -296 | +2 | -6.5 |
| Browns | -130 | +240 | -2 | +6.5 |
4* Free Week 17 NFL Betting Prediction: Cleveland +6.5
Our pick against the spread is to take the Dolphins to cover as road favorites in this week 17 matchup against the Browns. The current line has the Fins as a -6.5 favorite, and we have them winning by a score of 23-14.
For the over/under, with the line sitting at 40 points, we are leaning towards taking the under with a projected combined score of 37.
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Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
What the Dolphins are saying about the Browns ahead of Week 17
📰 » https://t.co/Jh4WBUZUnf pic.twitter.com/LPeciaP7LM
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) December 27, 2024
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