Free NFL Week 9 Pick: Dolphins vs. Bills Odds
Looking for Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Dolphins taking on the Bills on Sunday, November 3rd at the Highmark Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 9 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Miami Buffalo matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 9
(2-5) Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills (6-2)
Date: Sunday, November 3rd
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park NY
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Miami +6 | Buffalo -6
NFL Moneyline Odds: Miami +224 | Buffalo -278
NFL Betting Total: O/U 50
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Week 9 NFL Football is here, and so is the electric AFC East showdown between Miami and Buffalo! The Dolphins and Bills have clashed 122 times, with Miami holding a slight regular-season edge at 61-55-1, but history shows they struggle on the Buffalo road, where they’re 0-8 straight up in recent matchups at Highmark Stadium.
Looking at the spread, the Bills come in hot as -6 favorites, and they’ve been strong as chalk, covering 4 of their last 5 as the favored team.
Miami, meanwhile, has faltered against solid defenses, going just 2-6 straight up and ATS in their last 8 games against top-10 defenses.
Last season, the Dolphins and Bills did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Bills have the leg up at 3-0.
The Bills also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0. These games averaged a combined total of 47 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
Miami Dolphins
After snapping a three-game losing streak with a win over the Patriots in week 5, the Dolphins have now dropped two straight, including a 28-27 loss to the Cardinals in week 8. Miami was favored by 4.5 points at home but couldn’t hold on for the win, bringing their record to 2-5.
They currently rank 25th in our NFL power rankings and have a 7.4% chance of making the playoffs.
Against the spread, the Dolphins are 1-6 this season, with an average scoring margin of -8.6 points per game. They have failed to cover in two straight games, including their week 8 matchup with Arizona. Miami was a 4.5-point favorite in that game but lost by 1 point.
The 55 combined points were enough to hit the over, which was set at 46.5.
Miami Dolphins Stats
Heading into week 9, the Dolphins rank 29th in our offensive power rankings. They are 31st in the NFL in points per game, averaging 13.9. Miami ranks 21st in passing yards per game (186.3) and 13th in passing attempts per game. On the ground, they are 9th in both rushing attempts and rushing yards per game, averaging 131.7 yards.
The Dolphins are converting 38.5% of their third-down attempts, which ranks 17th in the league, and they are 3rd in red zone conversion percentage.
In week 8, Tua Tagovailoa threw for 234 yards and a touchdown, completing 28 of 38 passes. De’Von Achane led the team with 97 rushing yards on 10 carries, while Tyreek Hill had 6 receptions for 72 yards.
Miami scored in every quarter, including 10 points in the first, and converted 11 of 15 third downs. They also scored on 3 of their 4 red zone trips.
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In their 28-27 loss to the Cardinals, the Dolphins’ defense allowed 307 passing yards and 82 rushing yards on 26 attempts. Arizona finished with 389 total yards and averaged 8.5 yards per pass attempt.
Miami struggled on third downs, allowing the Cardinals to convert 53.8% of their chances. The Dolphins also failed to record a sack in the game.
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo heads into week 9 on a three-game winning streak, including a 31-10 win over the Seahawks in week 8. The Bills were favored by 3 points and covered the spread, improving their ATS record to 5-3 this season.
They’ve covered in three straight games, including a 24-point win over the Titans in week 7 and a 3-point victory over the Jets in week 6.
With a 6-2 record, the Bills sit atop the AFC East and have a 98.6% chance of winning the division. They rank 3rd in our NFL power rankings and have a +10.5 scoring margin this season. Buffalo’s O/U record is 4-4, with their games averaging 47 points.
Buffalo Bills Stats
Josh Allen has been on a roll, posting passer ratings of 102, 116, and 127 in his last three games. In week 8, he threw for 283 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Seahawks, completing 24 of 34 passes.
Khalil Shakir led the receiving corps with 9 catches for 107 yards, while James Cook rushed for 111 yards on 17 carries, scoring twice.
Buffalo ranks 5th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 28.8 points per game. They are 14th in passing yards per game (214.2) and 12th in rushing yards (122.2). Despite being 2nd in red zone attempts, they rank 28th in conversion percentage, scoring on just 5.9% of their trips inside the 20.
Buffalo’s defense was dominant in their 31-10 win over the Seahawks, holding Seattle to just 32 rushing yards on 17 attempts. The Bills’ secondary didn’t allow any passing touchdowns and gave up only 201 yards through the air. They also limited the Seahawks to a 14.3% conversion rate on third down.
The Bills’ defense pressured the quarterback throughout the game, even though they only had one sack.
They came away with one interception and held Seattle to a 72.4% completion rate.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Dolphins are 0-5 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Dolphins are 3-7 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Bills have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Dolphins’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 0-3.
- The Bills’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Dolphins vs. Bills Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | +130 | +226 | +3 | +6 |
| Bills | -155 | -278 | -3 | -6 |
4* Free Week 9 NFL Betting Prediction: Bills -6
Miami’s road struggles are real—covering in just 3 of their last 10 on the road and failing to cash in their last five as underdogs.
The Dolphins will need every spark from Tua and that high-octane offense, but Buffalo’s defense has proven it can stifle Miami’s attack, as seen in their 31-10 blowout win earlier this season.
With the over/under set at 50, it’s clear Vegas sees potential for fireworks, but bettors know Buffalo has had Miami’s number.
Our point spread pick for this week nine matchup between the Dolphins and Bills is to take the Bills to cover. Even though the Bills are the favorite at -6, we just can’t see the Fins keeping this one close. I’m calling for a Bills 37-24 win, making them a great pick vs. the spread.
For this game, we also like the over, with a predicted combined score of 61 points. The current O/U line is sitting at 50 points, making this a great opportunity to take the over.
Hold onto your seats, this game has all the makings of another AFC East classic!
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Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
⚠️ WARNING ⚠️
This gets spoooooky. #GoBills #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/BBFtiGy1kw
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) October 31, 2024
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