Free NFL Week 4 Pick: Dolphins vs. Bills Odds
Looking for Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills free NFL Week 4 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Dolphins taking on the Bills on Sunday, October 1st at the Highmark Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 4 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Miami Buffalo matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 4
(3-0) Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills (2-1)
Date: Sunday, October 1st
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium
NFL Week 4 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Miami +2.5 | Buffalo -2.5
Week 4 NFL Moneyline Odds: Miami +120 | Buffalo -147
NFL Betting Total: O/U 53.5
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This week, it’s a highly anticipated matchup as the undefeated Miami Dolphins (3-0, 3-0 ATS) face off against the Buffalo Bills (2-1, 2-1 ATS) in Orchard Park. This clash is a highlight of NFL Week 4, and you can catch it at 10 a.m. MST on CBS.
The Bills come in as slight 2.5-point favorites, with a -150 moneyline, while the Dolphins are at +125. The over/under is set at 53.5 points.
For Buffalo, this game is of paramount importance. As of 2022, the Dolphins hold a 61–52–1 series lead in their 114 regular season meetings, and they’ve faced off five times in the NFL playoffs, with the Bills holding a 4–1 postseason advantage, including a memorable victory in the 1992 AFC Championship Game.
When looking back at the most recent three head to head matchups between these two clubs, the Bills and Dolphins faced off three times, with the Bills going 2-1.
Against the spread, the Dolphins went 3-0 while the over/under record in these games was 2-1 on an average of 55.3 points per game.
The Bills had the edge in terms of offensive yards last season, averaging 455.3 yards of offense compared to the Dolphins at 282.7.
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Miami Dolphins
As the Dolphins prepare for their week 4 matchup with the Bills, they will look to remain undefeated at 3-0. This mark has Miami sitting 1st in the AFC-East.
This week will be their 3rd road game of the season and have played one game at home.
Taking a look at the Dolphins’ scoring margin this season season, it is currently at +19.7. This has resulted in an ATS record of 3-0.
The Dolphins’ 50-point win over the Broncos was one of their largest margins of victory in recent history. Offensively, the Dolphins averaged 10 yards per play for a total of 726 yards.
On the other end, the Broncos went 3/12 on 3rd down and finished with 363 yards. Going into the game, Miami was favored by 6 and went on to cover the spread.
Tua Tagovailoa threw for 309 yards while completing 88% of his passes and throwing for 309. Tagovailoa threw for four touchdowns.
Miami Dolphins Stats
In their matchup against the Broncos, the Dolphins ran the ball 43 times, with De’Von Achane emerging as the top rusher with 203 yards. In the passing game, Tua Tagovailoa finished with 26 passes, resulting in 309 yards and a passer rating of 155.
Miami’s offense comes in with an average of 43.3 points per game, which is currently 1st in the league.
The Dolphins are sitting 15th in points allowed so far. Heading into week 4, their opponents are putting up an average of 23.7 points per game, on 361.3 yards per contest.
Buffalo Bills
In the AFC-East standings, the Bills are in 2nd place with a record of 2-1. Within the AFC, Buffalo is 7th, heading into week 4. The Bills currently hold a 2-1 record against the spread. Currently, their average scoring margin is +18.7.
In terms of offense, the Bills started well, posting 10 points in the first quarter.
Their total offense for the game amounted to 386 yards, whereas the Commanders had 230 yards. Going into the game, Buffalo was favored by 5 and went on to cover the spread.
Quarterback Josh Allen threw for one touchdown and ran for 1 score. Allen completed 62% of his passes for 218 yards.
Buffalo Bills Stats
Offensively, Josh Allen totaled 218 passing yards with a completion rate of 62%. On the rushing front, the Bills had 33 attempts, gaining 168 yards. The team converted 9 of 15 third-down attempts.
The Bills have an average of 30.3 points per game, which positions them 2nd in the NFL.
Looking at Buffalo’s defense, they currently stand 2nd in points allowed. Opponents have been averaging 11.7 points per game and 253.0 yards per contest against them.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Dolphins are 4-1 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Bills are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Dolphins are 6-4 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Bills have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Dolphins’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Bills’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Dolphins vs. Bills Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | +162 | +120 | +4 | +2.5 |
| Bills | -194 | -147 | -4 | -2.5 |
4* Free Week 4 NFL Betting Prediction: Buffalo -2.5
Buffalo at -2.5 is my spread pick for this game. Their defense has been performing well , and is poised for another strong showing.
After a dominant win over the Raiders, the Bills continued their impressive streak by defeating the Commanders on the road, securing their second consecutive blowout victory and boosting their record to 2-1.
This week’s game promises we’ll see the Bills bring their ‘A’ game to this Dolphins matchup. I think they’re still the better team.
I believe Buffalo will not only come out on top, but also cover the spread against Miami.
If you’re looking for a pick on the over/under, the data we have suggests this game finishing below 53.5 points. For this game, my money is on the under.
My model has this one coming in at 48 total points.
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Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
"Miami is extremely explosive, I don't think I've ever seen a team put up 70 points during my career in the NFL."
Bills coaching staff quickly turning their attention to the undefeated Dolphins: https://t.co/Mf8SIQdi6O pic.twitter.com/U35XqlyheF
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) September 26, 2023
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