Free NFL Week 11 Pick: Rams vs. Patriots Odds
Looking for Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Rams taking on the Patriots on Sunday, November 17th at the Gillette Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 11 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Los Angeles New England matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 11
(4-5) Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots (3-7)
Date: Sunday, November 17th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Los Angeles -4.5 | New England +4.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Los Angeles -213 | New England +175
NFL Betting Total: O/U 43.5
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A little history lesson on this matchup. The Pats have won 9 of 15 matchups. This week’s clash will be the first meeting since the 2020 season when the Rams won, 24-3.
Last season, the Rams and Patriots did not face off head-to-head.
When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Patriots have the leg up at 2-1. The Patriots also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 26 points per game leading to an over/under record of 0-3.
Los Angeles Rams
After two straight wins, the Rams couldn’t keep the momentum going, falling 23-15 at home to the Dolphins in week 10. This leaves them at 4-5 on the season, including a 2-1 record in division play. Our power rankings have the Rams 18th heading into week 11, and they have an 18.4% chance of making the playoffs and an 11.5% chance of winning the NFC West.
Against the spread, the Rams are 3-6, with an average scoring margin of -3.6 points per game. They are 1-2 ATS as a favorite and 2-3 as an underdog. Their O/U record is 4-5, and the under has hit in their last two games.
Los Angeles Rams Stats
Matthew Stafford’s passer rating has declined in each of his last three games, dropping from 124 in week 8 to 83 in week 9, and then to 77 in week 10 against the Dolphins, where he threw for 293 yards on 32/46 passing and had one interception. The Rams’ offensive line allowed 4 sacks in week 10 after keeping Stafford clean in the previous two games. Kyren Williams led the rushing attack with 62 yards on 15 carries, while Puka Nacua had 9 receptions for 98 yards.
Heading into week 11, the Rams are 17th in the NFL in points per game (20.6) and 16th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 17th in yards per game (328.7) and 8th in passing yards per game (234.6), despite being 24th in 3rd down conversion rate. The Rams have struggled early in games, ranking 29th in 1st quarter scoring.
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The Rams’ defense had a tough game in their most recent outing, giving up 71.4% completions to the Dolphins. Despite this, they did pick off one pass and held Miami to just 171 passing yards. The Rams’ defense also had three sacks and held the Dolphins to 46.2% on third down. However, they did allow one passing touchdown in their 23-15 loss.
On the ground, the Rams held the Dolphins to just 67 yards rushing on 22 attempts. Overall, the Rams gave up just 238 total yards in the game, with their defense doing enough to keep the team in the game despite the loss.
New England Patriots
After snapping a five-game losing streak with a 19-3 win over the Bears in week 10, the Patriots are now 3-7 this season. The victory brought New England’s record on the road to 2-4, while they are 1-3 at home. In our NFL power rankings, the Patriots sit 30th, and we give them a 1% chance of making the playoffs.
Against the spread, the Patriots are 4-5-1, and they have covered in three straight games. They were underdogs in all of those matchups, including their win over the Bears, where they were +6. The O/U line for that game was 37.5 points, and the teams combined for 22. New England’s O/U record is 5-5, with the under hitting in two consecutive games.
New England Patriots Stats
Heading into week 11, the Patriots rank 28th in our offensive power rankings. They are averaging 16 points per game, which is 28th in the NFL, and they rank 32nd in passing yards per game with 156.8, despite being 18th in passing attempts. On the ground, they are 22nd in rushing yards per game, with 114.3, on 26 attempts per game. New England is 24th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 34.6% success rate, but they have been efficient in the red zone, ranking 9th with a 48.1% conversion rate.
Drake Maye threw for 184 yards (15/25) and a touchdown in week 10, after his 206-yard performance in week 9. Rhamondre Stevenson had 20 carries for 74 yards, and Austin Hooper led the team with 64 receiving yards on 3 catches. The Patriots scored 16 points in the 2nd quarter against the Bears but struggled in the red zone, converting only 1 of 5 opportunities.
The Patriots’ defense was dominant in their 19-3 win over the Bears, allowing just 69 yards passing and forcing Chicago to convert only 7.1% of their third down attempts. New England also recorded an incredible 9 sacks in the game, holding the Bears to 142 total yards and 73 yards rushing on 20 attempts.
With their performance, the Patriots limited the Bears to just 2.3 yards per pass attempt and prevented them from reaching the end zone. New England controlled the line of scrimmage with 13 tackles for loss and pressured the quarterback throughout the game.
Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Rams are 2-3 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Patriots are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Rams are 5-5 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Patriots have gone 6-4 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Rams’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Patriots’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Rams vs. Patriots Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | -198 | -213 | -4 | -4.5 |
| Patriots | +164 | +175 | +4 | +4.5 |
4* Free Week 11 NFL Betting Prediction: New England +4.5
Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Patriots to cover as home underdogs in this week 11 matchup between the Rams and Patriots. Right now, the point spread has the Rams as 4.5-point favorites, and we have the Patriots winning 30-27.
For an over/under pick, we like taking the over, with a predicted combined score of 57 points and the O/U line sitting at 43.5 points.
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Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
BMOREEEEE 🗣️ pic.twitter.com/wG5bp0p020
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 14, 2024
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