Free NFL Week 11 Pick: Chargers vs. Packers Odds
Looking for Los Angeles Chargers vs. Green Bay Packers free NFL Week 11 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Chargers taking on the Packers on Sunday, November 19th at the Lambeau Field. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 11 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Los Angeles Green Bay matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 11
(4-5) Los Angeles Chargers vs. Green Bay Packers (3-6)
Date: Sunday, November 19th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Lambeau Field, Green Bay WI
NFL Week 11 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Los Angeles -3 | Green Bay +3
Week 11 NFL Moneyline Odds: Los Angeles -178 | Green Bay +144
NFL Betting Total: O/U 44
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This next matchup features two teams that have the pedigree of a playoff team, in my opinion, but they just can’t put it together on Sunday’s. It’s usually a turnover at the wrong time, or a missed tackle when they can least afford it. At least the Packers have had some historical success against the Chargers, not that that means anything in today’s NFL.
Green Bay boasts a dominant 10-2 (.833) record versus LAC, with an impressive 4-1 home advantage. This marks the Packers’ highest regular season win rate against any opponent in the NFL.
The Chargers will know that the last 4x they’ve played the Packers games have been decided by a TD or less. I’m expecting a close, hard fought game this week, as per usual.
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Last season, the Chargers and Packers did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Packers have the leg up at 2-1.
However, against the spread the Chargers went 2-1. The over/under record in these matchups was 1-2 on an average of 55 points per game.
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Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles is currently 3rd in the AFC-West this season, with an overall record of 4-5. In games outside the conference, they are 2-2 and in AFC games, they’ve gone 2-3. The Chargers have a 4-5 ATS record so far. As we enter week 11, their scoring margin per game is +2.7.
In their loss to the Lions, Los Angeles didn’t put up any points in the first quarter. The Chargers totaled 421 yards on offense while allowing 533 yards on defense. Los Angeles’ 3 point loss also resulted in a loss vs. the spread as 2 point underdogs. Justin Herbert threw for 323 yards while completing 67% of his passes and throwing for 323. Herbert threw for four touchdowns.
Los Angeles Chargers Stats
Facing the Lions defense, Los Angeles’ offense amassed 421 yards in total. On third downs, the Chargers converted at a rate of 50%. Austin Ekeler led the rushing game with 67 yards, while Justin Herbert threw for 323 yards.
The Chargers’ offense has performing well in the first half of game, averaging 13.0 points. Their overall offensive numbers of 26.6 is 6th in the NFL.
Los Angeles’ defense has come up with 15 turnovers so far this season. This figure has them 4th in the NFL. Heading into week 11, they are allowing 23.9 points per game and 393.2 yards.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers currently hold the 3rd spot in the NFC-North this season, with an overall record of 3-6. In games outside their conference, they have a 0-3 record, and in NFC games, they have a NFC record. The Packers have a 4-5 ATS record so far. As we enter week 11, their scoring margin per game is -0.3.
The Green Bay had a sluggish offensive start vs. the Steelers, as they were unable to score in the first quarter. Overall, the Packers recorded 399 yards of offense and yielded 324 yards on defense. Green Bay’s 4 point loss also resulted in a loss vs. the spread as 3 point underdogs. Jordan Love threw for 289 yards while completing 52% of his passes and throwing for 289. Love threw for two touchdowns.
Green Bay Packers Stats
The Packers’ offense produced a total of 399 yards against the Steelers. On third downs, the Packers achieved a conversion rate of 50%. Notably, AJ Dillon led the rushing attack with 70 yards, while Jordan Love passed for 289 yards.
At 19.9 points per contest, the Green Bay offense is 19th in the league.
The Packers are 12th in the league in terms of yards allowed, giving up 320.6 yards per contest. Green Bay’s defense comes in with an average of 20.2 points per game allowed, which is 10th in the NFL.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Green Bay Packers NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Chargers are 4-1 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Packers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Chargers are 5-5 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Packers have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Chargers’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 0-2-1.
- The Packers’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Chargers vs. Packers Line Movement
Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Chargers | -142 | -178 | -2.5 | -3 |
Packers | +120 | +144 | +2.5 | +3 |
4* Free Week 11 NFL Betting Prediction: Green Bay +3
A home dog? Ok!
The Packers are going to wear their 1950’s throwback Classic Uniforms Sunday, which of course is inspired by the team’s uniforms from 1950-1953. I have a feeling it’s going to be a special day at Lambeau. That “historical” vibe will play a pivotal part in this one!
Green Bay’s pass defense did a good job slowing down Pittsburgh in their most recent game. Even though they are 3-point underdogs at home, I like them to cover vs. Los Angeles.
Chargers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 against the Packers. Plus they’re 1-7 SU in their last 8 vs. GB, and are 1-4 SU in their last 5 when playing at Lambeau.
Bet the UNDER on Sunday.
Not only does our model have a projected total of 45 points in this matchup, but the eye test has me feeling this line of 44 is high. I like Los Angeles and Green Bay to stay under the 44 points.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Packers’ last 5. On the other side, the total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers’ last 7.
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Los Angeles Chargers vs. Green Bay Packers NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Packers going all in on the 50’s feel.
50s Classic for your phone. 📲@CocaCola | #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/T6zhHwOOiU
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) November 15, 2023
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