Free NFL Week 6 Pick: Chargers vs. Broncos Odds
Looking for Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Chargers taking on the Broncos on Sunday, October 13th at the Empower Field at Mile High. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 6 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Los Angeles Denver matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 6
(2-2) Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos (3-2)
Date: Sunday, October 13th
Time: 4:05 ET
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver CO
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Los Angeles -3 | Denver +3
NFL Moneyline Odds: Los Angeles -158 | Denver +133
NFL Betting Total: O/U 35.5
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The Broncos won both of their matchups against the Chargers last season, sweeping the series 2-0. In the first game, the Chargers were 3-point favorites, but the Broncos won 24-7, and in the second game, the Broncos won 16-9, when they were -3.5 point favorites. The over/under line for game one was 45 points, and the teams combined for 31 points. In the second game, the line was 38.5 points, and the combined score was 25 points.
Los Angeles Chargers
After starting the season with two straight wins, the Chargers have now dropped two in a row, including a 17-10 home loss to the Chiefs in week 4. This leaves Los Angeles at 2-2, putting them 3rd in the AFC West. According to our projections, they have a 45.1% chance of making the playoffs and a 2.6% chance of winning the division. They rank 21st in our NFL power rankings heading into week 6.
So far, the over/under has gone under in all four of the Chargers’ games. Their O/U record is 0-4, with their games averaging 29.5 points compared to an average line of 39.1. Against the spread, Los Angeles is 2-1-1, including a 2-0 mark as favorites.
Los Angeles Chargers Stats
Heading into week 6, the Chargers rank 24th in our offensive power rankings. They are 26th in passing attempts (23.2 per game) and 29th in passing yards (136 per game). Justin Herbert threw for 179 yards (16/27) and a touchdown in week 4. Ladd McConkey led the team with 5 catches for 67 yards and a touchdown.
On the ground, the Chargers are 10th in rushing attempts and 9th in rushing yards, averaging 127.8 per game. J.K. Dobbins had 32 yards on 14 carries in week 4. The Chargers are 18th in 3rd-down conversions, with a 36.4% success rate, and they scored 10 points in the 1st quarter against the Chiefs.
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In their 17-10 loss to the Chiefs, the Chargers’ defense allowed 228 passing yards and 101 rushing yards on 26 attempts. They defended the pass well, allowing a yards per attempt of 7.9, but struggled to stop the run, giving up 3.9 yards per attempt. The Chargers picked off one pass, held the Chiefs to a 35% third-down conversion rate, and recorded three sacks.
The Chargers’ defense also forced 65.5% completions and allowed just one touchdown. However, the Chiefs were able to convert 56.2% of their third downs, which contributed to the Chargers’ inability to come out on top.
Denver Broncos
After starting the season with two straight losses, the Broncos have bounced back with three consecutive wins, including a 34-18 victory over the Raiders in week 5. Denver was a 3-point favorite in that game and covered the spread, improving their ATS record to 4-1. They’ve covered in three straight games, including two as underdogs.
Despite their winning streak, the Broncos rank 28th in our power rankings and have just a 34.2% chance of making the playoffs. They currently sit 6th in the AFC standings and 2nd in the AFC West. In division games, they are 1-0.
Denver Broncos Stats
Heading into week 6, the Broncos are 29th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 19.2 points per game, which ranks 21st in the NFL. They are 26th in passing yards per game (163.8) despite being 11th in pass attempts. On the ground, they rank 21st in rushing yards per game (106.8) on 26.2 attempts per game. Denver has struggled on 3rd down, converting just 24.6% of their attempts, but they are 13th in red zone conversion percentage, scoring on 50% of their trips.
Bo Nix had a strong performance in week 5, throwing for 206 yards and 2 touchdowns with a passer rating of 117. He completed 19 of 27 passes and avoided interceptions after being sacked 3 times. Javonte Williams led the team in rushing with 61 yards on 13 carries and also caught 5 passes for 50 yards.
In their 34-18 win over the Raiders, the Broncos’ defense came up with three interceptions and held Las Vegas to just 3.3 yards per carry. They allowed 115 rushing yards on 25 attempts and limited the Raiders to 215 passing yards. Despite giving up 18 points, Denver’s defense played well, holding the Raiders to a 59.5% completion rate and forcing them into a 46.7% third-down conversion rate.
The Broncos’ defense also had three sacks in the game and held the Raiders to 5.8 yards per pass attempt. They won the quarterback hit battle by +2 but did lose the tackles for loss differential.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Chargers are 3-2 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Broncos are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Chargers are 4-6 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Broncos have gone 5-4-1 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Chargers’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 0-3.
- The Broncos’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Chargers vs. Broncos Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | -122 | -158 | -1.5 | -3 |
| Broncos | +102 | +133 | +1.5 | +3 |
4* Free Week 6 NFL Betting Prediction: Denver +3
Our projected score for this week six matchup between the Chargers and Broncos is 16-14 in favor of the Chargers. With the point spread currently sitting at -3 in favor of the Chargers, we are leaning towards taking the Broncos to cover as home underdogs.
For the over/under, we like the under, and with the line at 35.5 points, there is some value in taking the under, as our projections have these teams finishing with just 30 combined points.
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