Free NFL Week 11 Pick: Raiders vs. Dolphins Odds
Looking for Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Raiders taking on the Dolphins on Sunday, November 17th at the Hard Rock Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 11 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Las Vegas Miami matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 11
(2-7) Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins (3-6)
Date: Sunday, November 17th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens FL
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Las Vegas +7.5 | Miami -7.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Las Vegas +299 | Miami -390
NFL Betting Total: O/U 44.5
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Last time these two met up was November 19th, 2023. A 20-13 Dolphins win. The Raiders lead the all-time series 21-20-1.
When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Dolphins have the leg up at 2-1. However, against the spread the Raiders went 2-1. The over/under record in these matchups was 2-1 on an average of 47 points per game.
Las Vegas Raiders
Heading into week 11, the Raiders are looking to snap a five-game losing streak, which includes a 41-24 loss to the Bengals in week 9. This dropped Las Vegas to 2-7, leaving them 4th in the AFC West and 15th in the conference. Our power rankings have the Raiders 27th, and they have just a 1% chance of making the playoffs.
Las Vegas has a -9.2 average scoring margin this season and is 4-5 against the spread. They are 4-4 ATS as underdogs and 0-1 as favorites. Their O/U record is 6-3, with the over hitting in their last two games.
Las Vegas Raiders Stats
Heading into week 11, the Raiders sit 32nd in our offensive power rankings. They are 22nd in the NFL in points per game (18.7) and rank 29th in yards per game, averaging 280.2. Despite being 7th in passing attempts, they are 18th in passing yards per game (203.3). Las Vegas ranks 26th in rushing attempts and is last in the league in rushing yards per game, with 76.9. They are 25th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion percentage but have been efficient in the red zone, converting 59.1% of their trips, which ranks 5th in the league.
Gardner Minshew threw for 124 yards on 10/17 passing in week 9, with no touchdowns or interceptions. Jakobi Meyers led the team with 8 catches for 105 yards, while Alexander Mattison had 36 rushing yards on 9 carries. The Raiders scored 14 points in the 4th quarter against the Bengals after being held scoreless in the 3rd quarter.
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In their 41-24 loss to the Bengals, the Raiders’ defense struggled to generate pressure, allowing five passing touchdowns and just one interception. They gave up 243 yards through the air on 27 completions, with Cincinnati completing 69.2% of their passes. The Raiders’ lone sack contributed to a tough day defending the pass, as they allowed a high 6.2 yards per attempt figure.
On third downs, the Bengals converted 53.3% of their chances, and the Raiders failed to disrupt the Bengals’ passing game, losing the QB hit differential by -6. Despite their struggles against the pass, the Raiders also allowed 130 rushing yards on 31 attempts (4.2 yards per attempt).
Miami Dolphins
After three straight losses, the Dolphins bounced back with a 23-15 win over the Rams in week 10, bringing their record to 3-6. Miami was a 2-point underdog in that game, and the combined scoring of 38 points fell short of the 49.5-point O/U line. Before that, the Dolphins narrowly covered the spread in their week 9 loss to the Bills, losing 30-27 as 6-point underdogs.
Heading into week 11, Miami has an average scoring margin of -6.1 points per game and ranks 20th in our NFL power rankings. They have an 8.1% chance of making the playoffs and a 0% chance of winning the AFC East. Against the spread, the Dolphins are 3-6 this season, including two straight wins. Their O/U record is also 3-6, with their games averaging 38.8 points compared to an average line of 44.8 points.
Miami Dolphins Stats
After posting a passer rating of 124 in week 9, Tua Tagovailoa threw for 207 yards and a touchdown on 20/28 passing in week 10, finishing with a passer rating of 89. He was sacked three times and threw an interception. De’Von Achane led the rushing attack with 37 yards on 12 carries, while Jaylen Waddle had 3 receptions for 57 yards.
Miami ranks 27th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 16.3. They are 25th in passing yards per game (188.8) and 9th in rushing yards per game (126.4). The Dolphins are 16th in passing attempts and 8th in rushing attempts per game. On 3rd down, they rank 10th in the NFL with a conversion rate of 40.2%.
In their 23-15 win over the Rams, the Dolphins’ defense allowed a 69.6% completion rate on 32 completions for 257 yards. They defended the run well, allowing just 70 yards on 18 attempts. On 3rd down, the Dolphins allowed only a 25% conversion rate and came away with four sacks and one interception. Despite this, they allowed 327 total yards.
Miami’s defense was also able to pressure the quarterback, winning the QB hit battle by two, but they did lose the tackles for loss differential. Overall, the Dolphins kept the Rams out of the endzone, as Los Angeles was unable to score a touchdown in this game.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Raiders are 2-3 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Raiders are 5-5 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Dolphins have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Raiders’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Dolphins’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Raiders vs. Dolphins Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | +205 | +299 | +6 | +7.5 |
| Dolphins | -250 | -390 | -6 | -7.5 |
4* Free Week 11 NFL Betting Prediction: Miami -7.5
Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Dolphins to cover as 7.5-point favorites in this week 11 matchup between the Dolphins and Raiders. We have the Dolphins winning by a score of 30-17.
For the over/under, with the line sitting at 44.5 points, we have these teams combining for 47 points, making the over our recommended pick.
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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
All white unis ⚪️ pic.twitter.com/09MMmP40fA
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) November 15, 2024
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