Free Week 18 Prediction: Raiders vs. Chiefs NFL Odds
Looking for Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs Free NFL Week 18 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Raiders taking on the Chiefs on Saturday, January 7th, 2023 at Allegiant Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 18 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Las Vegas Kansas City Matchup.
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NFL Handicapping Analysis: Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs Week 18
Las Vegas Raiders (6-10) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (13-3)
Date: Saturday, January 7th, 2023
Time: 4:30 PM EST
Venue: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
NFL Week 18 ATS Betting Lines: Raiders +8 (-110) | Chiefs -8 (-110) (Bet Now!)
Week 18 NFL Moneyline Odds: Raiders +290 | Chiefs -380
NFL Week 18 NFL Betting Total: O/U 52.5
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Depending on if Buffalo makes up their game with Cincinnati, Kansas City can clinch the AFC’s #1 seed this week.
The Raiders showed a lot of grit against the Niners in Las Vegas last Sunday but eventually lost in OT to end their season. Vegas may not even mind seeing their season close. It’s been a long, rough road this season with offseason changes looming on the horizon.
Kansas City is the opposite story, much like we’d expect. The Chiefs are 13-3 and favored to get out of the AFC once again.
Also, it stands to reason that KC isn’t going to rest players from the jump, but they might be quick to pull starters if they get a substantial lead.
Las Vegas Raiders
Jarrett Stidham impressed many across the NFL landscape by taking the Niners to OT. The third year signal caller posted 365 yards on 23/34 passing and added 3 scores and 2 picks. But the back and forth nature of the game is what impressed most.
Unfortunately we won’t see advanced analytics from Stidham until he gets more snaps under his belt, but the passing attack for the Raiders does boast plenty of weapons. Davante Adams, Mack Hollins and the recently returned Darren Waller headline their pass catchers with Josh Jacobs getting dump down duty.
And speaking of Jacobs, he’s had a boon of a year that has the Raiders as the 6th best rushing attack by DVOA. Can the Raiders grind out a win here? The Chiefs struggle to stop the run, though they’ve usually got teams so far underwater, the game script all but eliminates hand off calls.
Lastly, what killed Vegas last week and most of the year is their porous defense. DVOA tells us they’re next to last, right ahead of Chicago and their constant reprisal of the choke artist role comes down to their defense not making proper adjustments against the offense’s halftime adjustments.
Kansas City Chiefs
Altogether, when you look at this Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs matchup I could drop analytics that tell you KC is really good on offense, but we can assume that much. They haven’t been spectacular in the run game, but Mahomes is usually good for some magic that allows them to work outside the confines of reality.
Jerick McKinnon has been a critical addition to the offense in the outlet game, where his diminutive size allows him to slip through unnoticed until it’s too late. Vegas doesn’t strike me as a team concerned with the details at this point, nor the discipline to stop this wagon of an offense.
The Chiefs are leading the NFL in passing yards per game (417.7) and now take on Las Vegas’ dead last pass D. Since their rare game in Cincinnati that saw them get dominated, the Chiefs have averaged nearly 29 ppg.
While we don’t think of KC as a dominating defense, they do generate the 7th most pressure in the league on dropbacks. Stidham did well under pressure, extending plays and connecting for a 60 yard house call at one point, so we can reasonably question whether the pressure will affect the game.
Additionally, we also don’t know how involved Jacobs is, but whether they have designs on trading him this offseason or not, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to play him in this spot. In that event, we would see Brandon Bolden, which is a huge break for the Chiefs.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Betting Trends:
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 5 games when playing Las Vegas
- Kansas City is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Las Vegas’s last 5 games when playing Kansas City
- Las Vegas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
4* Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs Free Week 18 NFL Betting Prediction: KC -8
It’s hard for me to see a case for Las Vegas in this spot, but it is a lot of points for KC to cover.
In addition, the Raiders have actually done well as road underdogs this season too, posting a 3-2 record ATS, covering by an average of 4.5 points.
But, I can’t shake the feeling like the Chiefs will take care of business here.
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