Free NFL Week 5 Pick: Raiders vs. Broncos Odds
Looking for Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Raiders taking on the Broncos on Sunday, October 6th at the Empower Field at Mile High. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 5 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Las Vegas Denver matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 5
(2-2) Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos (2-2)
Date: Sunday, October 6th
Time: 4:05 ET
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver CO
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Las Vegas +2.5 | Denver -2.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Las Vegas +126 | Denver -152
NFL Betting Total: O/U 36.5
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It’s Week 5 of the NFL, and we’ve got a classic AFC West showdown on tap! The Las Vegas Raiders (2-2) head to Mile High to face the Denver Broncos (2-2), and the stakes couldn’t be higher. The Raiders have absolutely owned this rivalry lately, winning eight straight against Denver.
That’s right—eight! Even though these teams have been pretty evenly matched in recent seasons, the Raiders have had Denver’s number, leading the all-time series 73–54–2. It’s one of those streaks that leaves you shaking your head and wondering if the Broncos can finally break the curse.
Now, let’s dive into the betting side of things, where things get even juicier. The Raiders come in as +2.5 underdogs, but don’t let that fool you. Las Vegas is 4-1 in their last five as a ‘dog and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.
The Raiders won both of their matchups against the Broncos last season, with their first win coming by a score of 17-16 on the road. In the second game, the Raiders won 27-14 at home. Despite being underdogs in the first game, the Raiders not only won but covered the spread. In the second game, they were favored by -3.5 points.
The over/under line for game one was 43 points, and the teams combined for 33 points.
In the second game, the over/under line was 37.5 points, and they combined for 41 points.
Las Vegas Raiders
Despite falling behind 10-0 in the first quarter, the Raiders came back to tie the game at 10 going into halftime and eventually pulled out a 20-16 win over the Browns. Las Vegas added 10 points in the 3rd quarter, and even though the Browns scored in the 4th, the Raiders’ defense held on for the win. The Raiders improved to 2-2 with the victory.
Las Vegas’ win came despite being 2.5-point underdogs. The game’s over/under line was 37, and the teams combined for 36 points. The Raiders now look ahead to week five, sitting at .500 through their first four games of the season.
Las Vegas Raiders Stats
In their 20-16 win over the Browns, the Raiders struggled in the passing game, with Gardner Minshew II throwing for just 130 yards. Minshew completed 58% of his passes and was not able to find the endzone. Las Vegas managed only 116 yards through the air, with two sacks contributing to their struggles.
On the ground, the Raiders found more success, rushing for 152 yards on 29 attempts. Alexander Mattison led the team with 60 yards, averaging 12 yards per attempt, including a 24-yard run. Jakobi Meyers was the top receiver with 49 yards. The Raiders finished with 17 first downs and a 33.3% conversion rate on third down.
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In their 20-16 win over the Browns, the Raiders’ defense allowed just 149 passing yards on 24 completions. Cleveland managed just one touchdown and was limited to 241 total yards. The Raiders defended the pass well, allowing only 4.7 yards per attempt and recording one interception.
On the defensive front, Las Vegas pressured the quarterback effectively, with three sacks and a +7 advantage in the QB hit battle. The Raiders also held the Browns to 92 rushing yards on 22 attempts, forcing them to convert only 30% of their third down attempts.
Denver Broncos
Despite not scoring until the 3rd quarter, the Broncos pulled off a 10-9 win over the Jets to move to 2-2 on the season. Denver was down 6-0 at halftime, but Bo Nix connected with Courtland Sutton for a 7-yard touchdown early in the 3rd quarter. The Broncos took the lead for good with 8:59 remaining in the 4th quarter, as Wil Lutz made a 47-yard field goal.
Heading into the game, the Broncos were +8 point underdogs on the road, and the 19 combined points were well below the over/under line of 39.5 points. Denver’s defense kept the Jets out of the endzone until the 4th quarter, when New York added a field goal to briefly take a 9-7 lead.
Denver Broncos Stats
Denver’s offense struggled in the passing game in their 10-9 win over the Jets, as they managed just 60 yards through the air. The Broncos had only 12 first downs and 126 yards on the ground on 31 attempts. Quarterback Bo Nix went 12 of 25 for exactly 60 yards and threw one touchdown. The team’s inability to convert on third down was a key issue, as they managed to convert just 21.4% of their third down opportunities.
Javonte Williams led the team in rushing with 77 yards, averaging 4.8 yards per attempt, while Courtland Sutton was their top receiver with 60 yards, including a 29-yard reception for a touchdown. The Broncos’ offense didn’t take any sacks in the game, but their struggles on third down and lack of big plays limited their overall performance.
Denver’s defense was dominant in their 10-9 win over the Jets, allowing just 184 passing yards and 64 yards on the ground. The Broncos held the Jets to 23 rushing attempts and just 2.8 yards per attempt. They also limited New York to 23.5% on third down and recorded five sacks in the game.
Overall, the Broncos allowed only 248 total yards and won the battle in quarterback hits, finishing with a +12 differential. The Jets didn’t score a touchdown against Denver’s defense, and the Broncos defended the pass well, allowing just a 57.1% completion rate.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Raiders are 4-1 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Broncos are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Raiders are 5-5 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Broncos have gone 5-4-1 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Raiders’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Broncos’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Raiders vs. Broncos Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | -108 | +126 | +1 | +2.5 |
| Broncos | -112 | -152 | -1 | -2.5 |
4* Free Week 5 NFL Betting Prediction: Las Vegas +2.5
The Broncos might be favored at -2.5, but recent history is screaming Raiders.
Denver’s offense is still trying to find its footing, and honestly, I’m not sold on Bo Nix leading the charge. Javonte Williams will need to have a huge game, but I’m not convinced he can single-handedly carry this team. Meanwhile, Las Vegas looked revitalized on the ground last week against Cleveland, shaking off a brutal loss to Carolina. They’re hungry, and I expect them to pound the rock again in Denver.
This matchup has all the makings of a thriller, and for my money, I’m rolling with the Raiders to keep the streak alive. Denver’s got the altitude, but Vegas has the attitude.
Our pick vs. the spread in this Raiders vs. Broncos matchup is to take the Raiders to cover as road underdogs. The current line has the Raiders at +2.5, and we have them winning 26-16.
As for an over/under pick, with the line sitting at 36.5 points, we like the over, with a projected combined score of 42 points.
Keep an eye on that +126 moneyline and those live betting lines—you might just find yourself cashing in big!
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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
We’ve been waiting for this. 🤩#ThrowbackTo77 pic.twitter.com/RXzPq2zpYs
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) October 3, 2024
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